Texas will begin to reopen an economy shuttered by the coronavirus pandemic on Friday, an event with outsized implications in the political world, given the Lone Star state’s importance to both political parties.

Restaurants and retailers will begin to open under an order from Gov. Greg Abbott (R), whose directive will override local coronavirus lockdown orders. 

The law has hit a political nerve in Texas, which is frequently divided between Democratic cities and Republican rural areas. 

Republicans are generally more supportive of efforts to reopen, and Democrats calling for what they say should be a more cautious, science-based approach.

It has the potential to play out in November, where Democrats are hoping to be competitive in Texas in the presidential race. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is also up for reelection, and the state will host several competitive House races that could help determine the next majority.

“This is going to be the defining issue,” Abhi Rahman, communications director for the Texas Democratic Party, said of the coronavirus and the decision on reopening. “Health care, in general, is the number one issue for Texas Democrats and Texans across the board at every level of government.” 

Democrats want to tie Republicans down-ballot to Trump, and argue the party downplayed the virus and now is mismanaging the recovery.

Republicans say they will hit Democrats for politicizing the health crisis. 

“Democrats have spent, since minute one, focused on how they can take advantage of this opportunity that coronavirus presents for them to change the political landscape drastically,” Texas Republican Party Chairman James Dickey said. “Texas voters will be as repulsed by that as they should be.”  

While the state is still considered majority Republican, the mayors of Dallas, Houston, and Austin are all Democrats, and the mayor of the state’s second-largest city, San Antonio, is an Independent. 

Cornyn is the favorite in his Senate race, but Democrats are favored to pick up a couple of GOP seats where the demographics have been trending away from Republicans.

Republicans say Abbott is making the right decision given the economic toll the pandemic has taken on the state. In Texas, 1.5 million people have filed for unemployment over the last six weeks, with 254,199 of those claims coming the previous week. 

They argue that voters trust their party on the economy and that a coronavirus-fueled recession won’t change that dynamic.

“On the one hand, the governor is getting beat up by some by not going far enough in their view by opening things up, and then from others like some of these mayors, he’she’s gone too far,” said Polyansky.

The governor is also facing pushback from major cities that had imposed their restrictions.

Austin Mayor Steve Adler (D) in early March canceled the SXSW Festival, which typically brings thousands to the state, and later issued a stay at home order for his city. Adler also released regulations that would impose fines on residents not wearing masks in stores. The cities of Dallas, Houston, El Paso, and San Antonio also put out stay at home orders for residents last month. 

Abbott’sAbbott’s decision to reopen the state overrides these orders.

“Dallas residents and local leaders have worked hard to flatten the curve of COVID-19′ solid spread, and we must continue our commitment to social distancing practices, good hygiene, protecting our vulnerable populations, and doing all we can to increase testing and contact tracing.”

As of Thursday, Texas had 27,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases, mostly in the state’s larger cities. The outbreak appears to have plateaued, with an average of 852 new cases confirmed daily in the past week. 

“We are going to see the number of cases increase. That’sThat’s generally expected, even by the governor. Still, we need to monitor them and aggressively pursue any local outbreaks that happen, monitoring nursing homes, hospitals, prisons, any potential pockets that could serve as a source of transmission within the community,” she said. 

Abbott plans to gradually increase the number of contact tracers to 4,000 by May 11 and to “ramp up testing” to “box in” the virus.

Texas so far has only tested about 1.1 percent of its population, and ranks near the bottom in testing per capita, compared to other states. Lack of testing has been a national issue due to a global shortage of supplies. 

“We certainly could see another wave, and that could be a very sharp increase or a gradual increase, depending on who is infected, and what pattern that strikes from when the disease starts to spread, if it does, throughout the community,” Fischer said.