A recent Marquette Law School poll has found former Vice President Joe Biden with a 46% to 43% lead over President Trump in Wisconsin. The poll matches the last poll from Marquette, which had Biden up by 3 points in Wisconsin.
What does it mean?: One of the big questions that surface while looking at national polls is whether they’re an accurate representation of what is happening at the state level or not. One of the simplest ways to check is the comparison of state poll results to the past presidential vote in a particular state.
When we take the average of these state polls, they suggest that Biden’s running about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s final margin.
In other words, the state-level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points.
That’s a little greater than the 6.6 points Biden has in the high-quality national polling average taken at around the same time. One thing should be noted that if we weigh the average of state polls to each state’s population, we get a margin of just a little over 6.6 point mark. (Weighting by population leaves us somewhat more susceptible to outlier polls, as we have fewer polls from the most populated states.)
Either way, all methods indicate that Biden has a reasonably sizable national advantage.