According to a poll from NBC/SurveyMonkey released on Tuesday, a majority of Americans plans to vote early, either by mail or in person,
Fifty-two percent of respondents said they intend to vote early, including 19 percent who plan to vote in person and 33 percent who plan to vote by mail. About one in three adults say they plan to vote in person on Election Day.
The poll found a wide partisan gap for voting by mail, with 54 percent of adults identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning intending to vote in person on Election Day. By comparison, 22 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters said they plan to do the same. Fifty percent of Democrats said they plan to vote by mail, compared to 18 percent of Republicans. Twenty-nine percent of independents intend to vote by mail compared to 20 percent who intend to vote in person on Election Day.
There was no such gap for plans to vote early in person. The same share of Democrats and Republicans, 21 percent, said they intended to cast their ballot in-person and early. Thirteen percent of independents said the same.
The percentage of voters casting their ballots in person on Election Day has been on a steady downward trajectory over the years. The number of Americans voting early increased from 10.2 million to 24.1 million between 2004 and 2016. About 40 percent of 2016 voters used early voting, absentee voting or voting by mail.
President Trump has been a vocal foe of mail-in voting, frequently drawing a distinction that does not exist in many states between mail-in and absentee voting. Democrats have seized on comments he made suggesting he would not approve a U.S. Postal Service funding package passed by the House because it would allow for universal mail-in balloting in November. The president’s rhetoric has tracked with a falling share of Republicans who plan to vote by mail.
Pollsters surveyed 37,386 adults in a set of online polls conducted Aug. 24-30. The poll has a modeled error estimate of 1 percentage point.