{"meta":{"sourceUrl":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fivethirtyeight/data/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","license":"CC BY 4.0","attribution":"Polling data: FiveThirtyEight, CC BY 4.0. Federal outcome counts: FEC and MIT Election Data and Science Lab (CC0). Filtered and recalculated for this project; no endorsement implied.","outcomeMatching":"Federal races use independently matched FEC/MEDSL candidate vote counts with fusion ballot lines combined. Unknown or ambiguous federal outcomes are excluded. Governor outcomes remain provisional archive values, with all NY/CT and Maine 2010 excluded. See outcome-reconciliation.json for every correction and exclusion.","selection":"Within each specified window, keep the latest median field date per pollster_rating_id + race_id; average estimates tied on that date into one firm/race unit","biggestRaceMiss":"Rank abs(mean of the selected firm margins - independently matched actual margin), not the worst single poll. Requires an independently matched federal outcome, at least three firms and actual D+R share >=90%. Provisional governor outcomes excluded. This declared guard omits material third-party cases but does not prove every pair was the race's top two or screen every withdrawal.","interpretation":"Original retrospective equal-firm archive calculation. Not a contemporaneously published RCP/538 average, not AAPOR's harmonized series, not an election forecast, and not a causal estimate of improvement as election day approaches."},"races":[{"raceId":"10","race":"2014_Sen-G_NJ","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Cory A. Booker","republican":"Jeff Bell","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":14.0,"actualDem":55.835595,"actualRep":42.325872,"actualMargin":13.509723,"actualDRShare":98.161468,"signedError":0.490277,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.490277,"individualPollMAE":0.490277,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-11-01","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.509723,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":0.490277,"selectedQuestionIds":["42116"],"selectedPollIds":["34410"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"100","race":"2018_Sen-G_FL","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Bill Nelson","republican":"Rick Scott","pollDem":47.920526,"pollRep":46.466316,"pollMargin":1.454211,"actualDem":49.932473,"actualRep":50.054976,"actualMargin":-0.122503,"actualDRShare":99.987448,"signedError":1.576714,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.576714,"individualPollMAE":2.430396,"n":19,"pollsters":19,"sourceQuestions":24,"selectedQuestions":19,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-0.122503,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.122503,"selectedQuestionIds":["91331"],"selectedPollIds":["56701"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":1.8,"signedError":1.922503,"selectedQuestionIds":["91144"],"selectedPollIds":["56610"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":5.122503,"selectedQuestionIds":["91493"],"selectedPollIds":["56780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":3.122503,"selectedQuestionIds":["91440"],"selectedPollIds":["56756"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":-0.6,"signedError":-0.477497,"selectedQuestionIds":["91591"],"selectedPollIds":["56830"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"617","pollster":"MWR Strategies","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-2.3,"signedError":-2.177497,"selectedQuestionIds":["129671"],"selectedPollIds":["69584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.122503,"selectedQuestionIds":["91477"],"selectedPollIds":["56769"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":7.122503,"selectedQuestionIds":["91479"],"selectedPollIds":["56770"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.122503,"selectedQuestionIds":["91546"],"selectedPollIds":["56802"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.122503,"selectedQuestionIds":["91217"],"selectedPollIds":["56640"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"314","pollster":"St. Pete Polls","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":3.7,"signedError":3.822503,"selectedQuestionIds":["91481"],"selectedPollIds":["56771"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":1.8,"signedError":1.922503,"selectedQuestionIds":["90991"],"selectedPollIds":["56554"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-3.877497,"selectedQuestionIds":["91342"],"selectedPollIds":["56706"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":3.53,"signedError":3.652503,"selectedQuestionIds":["90791"],"selectedPollIds":["56450"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"677","pollster":"The Political Matrix/The Listener Group","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":0.4,"signedError":0.522503,"selectedQuestionIds":["142773"],"selectedPollIds":["74940"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":-1.7,"signedError":-1.577497,"selectedQuestionIds":["91583"],"selectedPollIds":["56825"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"360","pollster":"University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.122503,"selectedQuestionIds":["90956"],"selectedPollIds":["56537"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.122503,"selectedQuestionIds":["91277"],"selectedPollIds":["56674"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.122503,"selectedQuestionIds":["90886"],"selectedPollIds":["56498"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"102","race":"2018_Sen-G_IN","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Joe Donnelly","republican":"Mike Braun","pollDem":44.2,"pollRep":43.6,"pollMargin":0.6,"actualDem":44.842228,"actualRep":50.7324,"actualMargin":-5.890172,"actualDRShare":95.574628,"signedError":6.490172,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.490172,"individualPollMAE":6.490172,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-5.890172,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":12.890172,"selectedQuestionIds":["91163"],"selectedPollIds":["56618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-2.9,"signedError":2.990172,"selectedQuestionIds":["90994"],"selectedPollIds":["56557"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":-1.1,"signedError":4.790172,"selectedQuestionIds":["91592"],"selectedPollIds":["56832"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":8.890172,"selectedQuestionIds":["91148"],"selectedPollIds":["56612"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":2.890172,"selectedQuestionIds":["90885"],"selectedPollIds":["56499"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"103","race":"2018_Sen-G_ME","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Zak Ringelstein","republican":"Eric L. Brakey","pollDem":5.8,"pollRep":37.2,"pollMargin":-31.4,"actualDem":10.445627,"actualRep":35.229954,"actualMargin":-24.784327,"actualDRShare":45.675582,"signedError":-6.615673,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.615673,"individualPollMAE":6.615673,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-24.784327,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-31.4,"signedError":-6.615673,"selectedQuestionIds":["91111"],"selectedPollIds":["56597"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"105","race":"2018_Sen-G_MA","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Elizabeth Warren","republican":"Geoff Diehl","pollDem":54.8,"pollRep":33.2,"pollMargin":21.6,"actualDem":60.336782,"actualRep":36.172052,"actualMargin":24.16473,"actualDRShare":96.508834,"signedError":-2.56473,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.56473,"individualPollMAE":2.56473,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-26","2018-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":24.16473,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"198","pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-2.16473,"selectedQuestionIds":["91139"],"selectedPollIds":["56606"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":21.2,"signedError":-2.96473,"selectedQuestionIds":["90913"],"selectedPollIds":["56512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"106","race":"2018_Sen-G_MI","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Debbie Stabenow","republican":"John James","pollDem":51.8375,"pollRep":41.95,"pollMargin":9.8875,"actualDem":52.261892,"actualRep":45.75629,"actualMargin":6.505602,"actualDRShare":98.018182,"signedError":3.381898,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.381898,"individualPollMAE":5.384699,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":6.505602,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-4.505602,"selectedQuestionIds":["91553"],"selectedPollIds":["56811"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":9.4,"signedError":2.894398,"selectedQuestionIds":["90904"],"selectedPollIds":["56507"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"117","pollster":"Glengariff Group","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":16.7,"signedError":10.194398,"selectedQuestionIds":["90929"],"selectedPollIds":["56520"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":6.494398,"selectedQuestionIds":["91171"],"selectedPollIds":["56620"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2018-11-05","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-3.505602,"selectedQuestionIds":["91569"],"selectedPollIds":["56815"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":9.494398,"selectedQuestionIds":["91413"],"selectedPollIds":["56738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"330","pollster":"Target Insyght","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":3.494398,"selectedQuestionIds":["91420"],"selectedPollIds":["56743"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":2.494398,"selectedQuestionIds":["91558"],"selectedPollIds":["56814"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"107","race":"2018_Sen-G_MN","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Amy Klobuchar","republican":"Jim Newberger","pollDem":54.75,"pollRep":33.75,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":60.309857,"actualRep":36.214125,"actualMargin":24.095732,"actualDRShare":96.523981,"signedError":-3.095732,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.095732,"individualPollMAE":4.047866,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":24.095732,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-9.095732,"selectedQuestionIds":["91537"],"selectedPollIds":["56797"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-4.095732,"selectedQuestionIds":["91414"],"selectedPollIds":["56739"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"312","pollster":"St. Cloud State University","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":1.904268,"selectedQuestionIds":["124507"],"selectedPollIds":["66738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":-1.095732,"selectedQuestionIds":["91459"],"selectedPollIds":["56652"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"108","race":"2018_Sen-G_MS","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MS","democrat":"David Baria","republican":"Roger F. Wicker","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":39.474586,"actualRep":58.492868,"actualMargin":-19.018281,"actualDRShare":97.967454,"signedError":11.018281,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.018281,"individualPollMAE":11.018281,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-19.018281,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":11.018281,"selectedQuestionIds":["91534"],"selectedPollIds":["56806"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"109","race":"2018_Sen-G_MO","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Claire McCaskill","republican":"Josh Hawley","pollDem":45.442857,"pollRep":46.6,"pollMargin":-1.157143,"actualDem":45.569341,"actualRep":51.383231,"actualMargin":-5.81389,"actualDRShare":96.952572,"signedError":4.656747,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.656747,"individualPollMAE":4.656747,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2018-10-26","2018-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-5.81389,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.81389,"selectedQuestionIds":["91167"],"selectedPollIds":["56619"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":2.81389,"selectedQuestionIds":["90995"],"selectedPollIds":["56558"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":-3.4,"signedError":2.41389,"selectedQuestionIds":["91490"],"selectedPollIds":["56782"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":-0.8,"signedError":5.01389,"selectedQuestionIds":["91593"],"selectedPollIds":["56833"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":8.81389,"selectedQuestionIds":["91475"],"selectedPollIds":["56773"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.81389,"selectedQuestionIds":["91314"],"selectedPollIds":["56695"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":-3.9,"signedError":1.91389,"selectedQuestionIds":["91457"],"selectedPollIds":["56764"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"110","race":"2018_Sen-G_MT","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Jon Tester","republican":"Matt Rosendale","pollDem":48.5,"pollRep":46.275,"pollMargin":2.225,"actualDem":50.333873,"actualRep":46.782412,"actualMargin":3.551461,"actualDRShare":97.116284,"signedError":-1.326461,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.326461,"individualPollMAE":3.45073,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":3.551461,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-6.551461,"selectedQuestionIds":["91446"],"selectedPollIds":["56762"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.551461,"selectedQuestionIds":["90981"],"selectedPollIds":["56546"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":7.8,"signedError":4.248539,"selectedQuestionIds":["91594"],"selectedPollIds":["56834"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":1.1,"signedError":-2.451461,"selectedQuestionIds":["91570"],"selectedPollIds":["56816"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"111","race":"2018_Sen-G_NE","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Jane Raybould","republican":"Deb Fischer","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":38.6212,"actualRep":57.685049,"actualMargin":-19.063849,"actualDRShare":96.306249,"signedError":4.063849,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.063849,"individualPollMAE":4.063849,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-19.063849,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"69","pollster":"DFM Research","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":4.063849,"selectedQuestionIds":["90999"],"selectedPollIds":["56561"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"112","race":"2018_Sen-G_NV","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Jacky Rosen","republican":"Dean Heller","pollDem":47.32,"pollRep":45.62,"pollMargin":1.7,"actualDem":50.411981,"actualRep":45.384989,"actualMargin":5.026992,"actualDRShare":95.79697,"signedError":-3.326992,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.326992,"individualPollMAE":3.326992,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.026992,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":4.5,"signedError":-0.526992,"selectedQuestionIds":["91491"],"selectedPollIds":["56778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.026992,"selectedQuestionIds":["91296"],"selectedPollIds":["56683"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":2.3,"signedError":-2.726992,"selectedQuestionIds":["91595"],"selectedPollIds":["56831"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.026992,"selectedQuestionIds":["91128"],"selectedPollIds":["56601"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":-3.3,"signedError":-8.326992,"selectedQuestionIds":["91369"],"selectedPollIds":["56723"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"113","race":"2018_Sen-G_NJ","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Robert Menendez","republican":"Bob Hugin","pollDem":51.72,"pollRep":41.66,"pollMargin":10.06,"actualDem":54.00715,"actualRep":42.828092,"actualMargin":11.179058,"actualDRShare":96.835242,"signedError":-1.119058,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.119058,"individualPollMAE":2.975812,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":11.179058,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-1.179058,"selectedQuestionIds":["91447"],"selectedPollIds":["56763"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":5.3,"signedError":-5.879058,"selectedQuestionIds":["90903"],"selectedPollIds":["56509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":3.820942,"selectedQuestionIds":["91480"],"selectedPollIds":["56774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"317","pollster":"Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":0.820942,"selectedQuestionIds":["91286"],"selectedPollIds":["56677"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-3.179058,"selectedQuestionIds":["91084"],"selectedPollIds":["56589"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"114","race":"2018_Sen-G_NM","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Martin Heinrich","republican":"Mick Rich","pollDem":49.175,"pollRep":33.35,"pollMargin":15.825,"actualDem":54.087735,"actualRep":30.532186,"actualMargin":23.555549,"actualDRShare":84.61992,"signedError":-7.730549,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.730549,"individualPollMAE":7.730549,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":23.555549,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"450","pollster":"Carroll Strategies","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":12.8,"signedError":-10.755549,"selectedQuestionIds":["91287"],"selectedPollIds":["56642"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":16.5,"signedError":-7.055549,"selectedQuestionIds":["90905"],"selectedPollIds":["56508"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-3.555549,"selectedQuestionIds":["91395"],"selectedPollIds":["56732"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-9.555549,"selectedQuestionIds":["91547"],"selectedPollIds":["56803"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"115","race":"2018_Sen-G_NY","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Kirsten E. Gillibrand","republican":"Chele Farley","pollDem":59.0,"pollRep":33.5,"pollMargin":25.5,"actualDem":66.956851,"actualRep":32.979244,"actualMargin":33.977607,"actualDRShare":99.936095,"signedError":-8.477607,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.477607,"individualPollMAE":8.477607,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-30","2018-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":33.422055,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.555552,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":-5.977607,"selectedQuestionIds":["91416"],"selectedPollIds":["56740"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":-10.977607,"selectedQuestionIds":["91399"],"selectedPollIds":["56733"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"117","race":"2018_Sen-G_OH","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Sherrod Brown","republican":"Jim Renacci","pollDem":50.733333,"pollRep":39.283333,"pollMargin":11.45,"actualDem":53.395136,"actualRep":46.58184,"actualMargin":6.813296,"actualDRShare":99.976976,"signedError":4.636704,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.636704,"individualPollMAE":4.974469,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":6.845772,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.032476,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"401","pollster":"Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":19.5,"signedError":12.686704,"selectedQuestionIds":["90971"],"selectedPollIds":["56541"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":3.186704,"selectedQuestionIds":["91573"],"selectedPollIds":["56818"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":10.4,"signedError":3.586704,"selectedQuestionIds":["91230"],"selectedPollIds":["56646"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":5.8,"signedError":-1.013296,"selectedQuestionIds":["90976"],"selectedPollIds":["56544"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":2.186704,"selectedQuestionIds":["91258"],"selectedPollIds":["56661"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":7.186704,"selectedQuestionIds":["91548"],"selectedPollIds":["56804"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"118","race":"2018_Sen-G_PA","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Robert P. Casey Jr.","republican":"Lou Barletta","pollDem":52.75,"pollRep":39.5,"pollMargin":13.25,"actualDem":55.726498,"actualRep":42.603505,"actualMargin":13.122993,"actualDRShare":98.330003,"signedError":0.127007,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.127007,"individualPollMAE":3.188503,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":13.127101,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.004108,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-6.122993,"selectedQuestionIds":["91449"],"selectedPollIds":["56758"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":1.877007,"selectedQuestionIds":["91190"],"selectedPollIds":["56628"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":0.877007,"selectedQuestionIds":["91293"],"selectedPollIds":["56682"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":3.877007,"selectedQuestionIds":["91417"],"selectedPollIds":["56741"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"12","race":"2014_Sen-G_AK","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Mark Begich","republican":"Dan Sullivan","pollDem":43.775,"pollRep":44.3,"pollMargin":-0.525,"actualDem":45.832507,"actualRep":47.96211,"actualMargin":-2.129603,"actualDRShare":93.794618,"signedError":1.604603,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.604603,"individualPollMAE":3.975,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2014-10-25","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.129603,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"155","pollster":"Alaska Survey Research","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":7.9,"signedError":10.029603,"selectedQuestionIds":["127063"],"selectedPollIds":["34435"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"217","pollster":"Moore Information Group","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.870397,"selectedQuestionIds":["42119"],"selectedPollIds":["34411"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.129603,"selectedQuestionIds":["125176"],"selectedPollIds":["34324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.870397,"selectedQuestionIds":["42142"],"selectedPollIds":["34321"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"120","race":"2018_Sen-G_TN","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Phil Bredesen","republican":"Marsha Blackburn","pollDem":45.0375,"pollRep":49.8125,"pollMargin":-4.775,"actualDem":43.919973,"actualRep":54.707007,"actualMargin":-10.787034,"actualDRShare":98.62698,"signedError":6.012034,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.012034,"individualPollMAE":6.012034,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-10.787034,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":1.787034,"selectedQuestionIds":["91159"],"selectedPollIds":["56616"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-5.8,"signedError":4.987034,"selectedQuestionIds":["91137"],"selectedPollIds":["56604"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"456","pollster":"East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":10.787034,"selectedQuestionIds":["91291"],"selectedPollIds":["56681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-8.4,"signedError":2.387034,"selectedQuestionIds":["91198"],"selectedPollIds":["56633"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":5.787034,"selectedQuestionIds":["91065"],"selectedPollIds":["56577"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":6.787034,"selectedQuestionIds":["91219"],"selectedPollIds":["56641"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":10.787034,"selectedQuestionIds":["91341"],"selectedPollIds":["56705"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":4.787034,"selectedQuestionIds":["91073"],"selectedPollIds":["56580"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"121","race":"2018_Sen-G_TX","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Beto O'Rourke","republican":"Ted Cruz","pollDem":45.48,"pollRep":50.88,"pollMargin":-5.4,"actualDem":48.325355,"actualRep":50.892601,"actualMargin":-2.567246,"actualDRShare":99.217956,"signedError":-2.832754,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.832754,"individualPollMAE":3.859652,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-2.567246,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":2.567246,"selectedQuestionIds":["91332"],"selectedPollIds":["56702"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"81","pollster":"Dixie Strategies","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-7.432754,"selectedQuestionIds":["91001"],"selectedPollIds":["56562"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-3.1,"signedError":-0.532754,"selectedQuestionIds":["91196"],"selectedPollIds":["56632"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.432754,"selectedQuestionIds":["90915"],"selectedPollIds":["56513"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":-8.9,"signedError":-6.332754,"selectedQuestionIds":["91571"],"selectedPollIds":["56817"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1214","race":"2017_Gov-G_VA","series":"governor","year":2017,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2017,"electionDate":"2017-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Ralph S. Northam","republican":"Ed W. Gillespie","pollDem":47.555294,"pollRep":44.361765,"pollMargin":3.193529,"actualDem":53.893763,"actualRep":44.977152,"actualMargin":8.916611,"actualDRShare":98.870916,"signedError":-5.723081,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.723081,"individualPollMAE":5.732892,"n":17,"pollsters":17,"sourceQuestions":20,"selectedQuestions":17,"dateRange":["2017-10-26","2017-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":8.916611,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2017-11-04","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-3.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79734"],"selectedPollIds":["50517"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2017-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-2.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79747"],"selectedPollIds":["50530"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"50","pollster":"Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership","date":"2017-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-2.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79748"],"selectedPollIds":["50531"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2017-11-03","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-5.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79750"],"selectedPollIds":["50533"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2017-11-01","pollMargin":5.5,"signedError":-3.416611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79743"],"selectedPollIds":["50527"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"145","pollster":"IMGE Insights","date":"2017-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-7.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79737"],"selectedPollIds":["50521"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2017-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-6.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79735"],"selectedPollIds":["50519"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2017-11-02","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":0.083389,"selectedQuestionIds":["79733"],"selectedPollIds":["50518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2017-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-8.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79736"],"selectedPollIds":["50520"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2017-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-8.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79739"],"selectedPollIds":["50523"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2017-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-4.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79742"],"selectedPollIds":["50526"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2017-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-3.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["183318"],"selectedPollIds":["84352"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2017-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-5.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79741"],"selectedPollIds":["50525"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"337","pollster":"The Polling Company Inc.","date":"2017-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-7.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79752"],"selectedPollIds":["50535"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"754","pollster":"The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government","date":"2017-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-3.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79746"],"selectedPollIds":["50529"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2017-11-01","pollMargin":1.79,"signedError":-7.126611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79738"],"selectedPollIds":["50522"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"245","pollster":"Øptimus Analytics","date":"2017-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-11.916611,"selectedQuestionIds":["79740"],"selectedPollIds":["50524"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1215","race":"2017_Gov-G_NJ","series":"governor","year":2017,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2017,"electionDate":"2017-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Philip Murphy","republican":"Kimberly Ann Guadagno","pollDem":50.8,"pollRep":36.142857,"pollMargin":14.657143,"actualDem":56.025966,"actualRep":41.891437,"actualMargin":14.134529,"actualDRShare":97.917403,"signedError":0.522614,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.522614,"individualPollMAE":1.209353,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2017-10-27","2017-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":14.134529,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2017-11-03","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":1.865471,"selectedQuestionIds":["79773"],"selectedPollIds":["50541"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2017-10-27","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":1.865471,"selectedQuestionIds":["79774"],"selectedPollIds":["50542"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2017-10-31","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.134529,"selectedQuestionIds":["79775"],"selectedPollIds":["50543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2017-10-29","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.134529,"selectedQuestionIds":["79776"],"selectedPollIds":["50544"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2017-11-02","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-2.134529,"selectedQuestionIds":["79777"],"selectedPollIds":["50545"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2017-10-31","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":0.865471,"selectedQuestionIds":["79779"],"selectedPollIds":["50547"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2017-10-27","pollMargin":15.6,"signedError":1.465471,"selectedQuestionIds":["79781"],"selectedPollIds":["50549"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1216","race":"2015_Gov-G_KY","series":"governor","year":2015,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2015,"electionDate":"2015-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Jack Conway","republican":"Matthew G. Bevin","pollDem":44.666667,"pollRep":41.333333,"pollMargin":3.333333,"actualDem":43.814677,"actualRep":52.519072,"actualMargin":-8.704395,"actualDRShare":96.333748,"signedError":12.037729,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.037729,"individualPollMAE":12.037729,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2015-10-22","2015-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-8.704395,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2015-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":13.704395,"selectedQuestionIds":["65993"],"selectedPollIds":["44107"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2015-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":8.704395,"selectedQuestionIds":["65992"],"selectedPollIds":["44106"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"379","pollster":"Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center","date":"2015-10-22","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":13.704395,"selectedQuestionIds":["65994"],"selectedPollIds":["44108"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1217","race":"2015_Gov-G_MS","series":"governor","year":2015,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2015,"electionDate":"2015-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MS","democrat":"Robert Gray","republican":"Phil Bryant","pollDem":28.0,"pollRep":66.0,"pollMargin":-38.0,"actualDem":32.38496,"actualRep":66.243018,"actualMargin":-33.858057,"actualDRShare":98.627978,"signedError":-4.141943,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.141943,"individualPollMAE":4.141943,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2015-10-23","2015-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-33.858057,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2015-10-23","pollMargin":-38.0,"signedError":-4.141943,"selectedQuestionIds":["65997"],"selectedPollIds":["44111"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1219","race":"2015_Gov-R_LA","series":"governor","year":2015,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2015,"electionDate":"2015-11-21","raceKind":"R","location":"LA","democrat":"John Bel Edwards","republican":"David Vitter","pollDem":49.8,"pollRep":40.2,"pollMargin":9.6,"actualDem":56.114511,"actualRep":43.885489,"actualMargin":12.229023,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.629023,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.629023,"individualPollMAE":5.737414,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2015-11-11","2015-11-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":12.229023,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"156","pollster":"JMC Analytics","date":"2015-11-19","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-8.229023,"selectedQuestionIds":["65981"],"selectedPollIds":["44095"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"182","pollster":"MarblePort","date":"2015-11-11","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-6.229023,"selectedQuestionIds":["65988"],"selectedPollIds":["44102"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"185","pollster":"Market Research Insight","date":"2015-11-17","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-0.229023,"selectedQuestionIds":["65982"],"selectedPollIds":["44096"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"274","pollster":"RRH Elections","date":"2015-11-14","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-6.229023,"selectedQuestionIds":["65986"],"selectedPollIds":["44100"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"358","pollster":"University of New Orleans Survey Research Center","date":"2015-11-14","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":7.770977,"selectedQuestionIds":["65983"],"selectedPollIds":["44097"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1222","race":"2014_Gov-G_AZ","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Fred Duval","republican":"Doug Ducey","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":41.616725,"actualRep":53.44221,"actualMargin":-11.825485,"actualDRShare":95.058935,"signedError":4.825485,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.825485,"individualPollMAE":4.825485,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-11.825485,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"337","pollster":"The Polling Company Inc.","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":4.825485,"selectedQuestionIds":["41231"],"selectedPollIds":["33956"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1223","race":"2014_Gov-G_ID","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"AJ Balukoff","republican":"C.L. 'Butch' Otter","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":38.550349,"actualRep":53.521815,"actualMargin":-14.971466,"actualDRShare":92.072164,"signedError":2.971466,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.971466,"individualPollMAE":2.971466,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-31","2014-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-14.971466,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":2.971466,"selectedQuestionIds":["42013"],"selectedPollIds":["34319"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1224","race":"2014_Gov-G_ME","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Michael H. Michaud","republican":"Paul R. LePage","pollDem":42.175,"pollRep":42.1,"pollMargin":0.075,"actualDem":43.374066,"actualRep":48.184881,"actualMargin":-4.810815,"actualDRShare":91.558946,"signedError":4.885815,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.885815,"individualPollMAE":4.885815,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-4.810815,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":4.810815,"selectedQuestionIds":["42016"],"selectedPollIds":["34322"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"179","pollster":"Magellan Strategies","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":4.810815,"selectedQuestionIds":["41696"],"selectedPollIds":["34173"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"180","pollster":"Maine People's Resource Center","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":0.3,"signedError":5.110815,"selectedQuestionIds":["42077"],"selectedPollIds":["34383"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":4.810815,"selectedQuestionIds":["41398"],"selectedPollIds":["34041"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"1226","race":"2014_Gov-G_IA","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Jack G. Hatch","republican":"Terry E. Branstad","pollDem":36.3875,"pollRep":53.8625,"pollMargin":-17.475,"actualDem":37.268889,"actualRep":58.990113,"actualMargin":-21.721224,"actualDRShare":96.259002,"signedError":4.246224,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.246224,"individualPollMAE":5.135612,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-21.721224,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":4.721224,"selectedQuestionIds":["42008"],"selectedPollIds":["34314"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":-1.278776,"selectedQuestionIds":["42082"],"selectedPollIds":["34388"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-20.8,"signedError":0.921224,"selectedQuestionIds":["41502"],"selectedPollIds":["34091"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":10.721224,"selectedQuestionIds":["42000"],"selectedPollIds":["34306"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":10.721224,"selectedQuestionIds":["42030"],"selectedPollIds":["34336"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":3.721224,"selectedQuestionIds":["42059"],"selectedPollIds":["34365"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-2.278776,"selectedQuestionIds":["42086"],"selectedPollIds":["34392"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":6.721224,"selectedQuestionIds":["42031"],"selectedPollIds":["34337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1227","race":"2014_Gov-G_HI","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"David Y. Ige","republican":"Duke Aiona","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":3.0,"actualDem":49.454138,"actualRep":37.075722,"actualMargin":12.378417,"actualDRShare":86.52986,"signedError":-9.378417,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.378417,"individualPollMAE":9.378417,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":12.378417,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-9.378417,"selectedQuestionIds":["112344"],"selectedPollIds":["62488"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1228","race":"2014_Gov-G_KS","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Paul Davis","republican":"Sam Brownback","pollDem":44.5,"pollRep":42.25,"pollMargin":2.25,"actualDem":46.129854,"actualRep":49.821162,"actualMargin":-3.691308,"actualDRShare":95.951016,"signedError":5.941308,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.941308,"individualPollMAE":5.941308,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2014-10-24","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-3.691308,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":9.691308,"selectedQuestionIds":["42063"],"selectedPollIds":["34369"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":4.691308,"selectedQuestionIds":["42062"],"selectedPollIds":["34368"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.691308,"selectedQuestionIds":["42002"],"selectedPollIds":["34308"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.691308,"selectedQuestionIds":["42061"],"selectedPollIds":["34367"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1229","race":"2014_Gov-G_SD","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Susan M. Wismer","republican":"Dennis M. Daugaard","pollDem":29.25,"pollRep":62.75,"pollMargin":-33.5,"actualDem":25.431953,"actualRep":70.466794,"actualMargin":-45.034841,"actualDRShare":95.898747,"signedError":11.534841,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.534841,"individualPollMAE":11.534841,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-45.034841,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-39.0,"signedError":6.034841,"selectedQuestionIds":["41654"],"selectedPollIds":["33763"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":-36.0,"signedError":9.034841,"selectedQuestionIds":["42046"],"selectedPollIds":["34352"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-39.0,"signedError":6.034841,"selectedQuestionIds":["41873"],"selectedPollIds":["34244"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":25.034841,"selectedQuestionIds":["42085"],"selectedPollIds":["34391"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1232","race":"2014_Gov-G_AR","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Michael Avery Ross","republican":"Asa Hutchinson","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":47.4,"pollMargin":-5.4,"actualDem":41.494028,"actualRep":55.436417,"actualMargin":-13.942389,"actualDRShare":96.930445,"signedError":8.542389,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.542389,"individualPollMAE":8.542389,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-13.942389,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":10.942389,"selectedQuestionIds":["41990"],"selectedPollIds":["33764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"242","pollster":"Opinion Research Associates","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":17.942389,"selectedQuestionIds":["112334"],"selectedPollIds":["62482"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":3.942389,"selectedQuestionIds":["42004"],"selectedPollIds":["34310"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":6.942389,"selectedQuestionIds":["112335"],"selectedPollIds":["34415"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"345","pollster":"University of Arkansas Department of Political Science","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":2.942389,"selectedQuestionIds":["42014"],"selectedPollIds":["34320"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1234","race":"2014_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Maggie Hassan","republican":"Walt Havenstein","pollDem":48.666667,"pollRep":44.666667,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":52.380688,"actualRep":47.432757,"actualMargin":4.947931,"actualDRShare":99.813445,"signedError":-0.947931,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.947931,"individualPollMAE":3.0,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2014-10-27","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":4.947931,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.947931,"selectedQuestionIds":["42027"],"selectedPollIds":["34333"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"228","pollster":"New England College Polling Center","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.052069,"selectedQuestionIds":["42071"],"selectedPollIds":["34377"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.052069,"selectedQuestionIds":["42039"],"selectedPollIds":["34345"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":4.052069,"selectedQuestionIds":["42087"],"selectedPollIds":["34393"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-0.947931,"selectedQuestionIds":["42025"],"selectedPollIds":["34423"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-7.947931,"selectedQuestionIds":["112350"],"selectedPollIds":["34417"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1235","race":"2014_Gov-G_NM","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Gary K. King","republican":"Susana Martinez","pollDem":37.7,"pollRep":54.6,"pollMargin":-16.9,"actualDem":42.776884,"actualRep":57.223116,"actualMargin":-14.446232,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.453768,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.453768,"individualPollMAE":2.453768,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-14.446232,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"527","pollster":"BWD Global","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-18.8,"signedError":-4.353768,"selectedQuestionIds":["112351"],"selectedPollIds":["62493"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-0.553768,"selectedQuestionIds":["41520"],"selectedPollIds":["34098"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1238","race":"2014_Gov-G_MN","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Mark Dayton","republican":"Jeff Johnson","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":50.071378,"actualRep":44.510192,"actualMargin":5.561186,"actualDRShare":94.58157,"signedError":-0.561186,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.561186,"individualPollMAE":0.561186,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":5.561186,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.561186,"selectedQuestionIds":["41877"],"selectedPollIds":["33821"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.561186,"selectedQuestionIds":["42080"],"selectedPollIds":["34386"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1239","race":"2014_Gov-G_RI","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Gina M. Raimondo","republican":"Allan W. Fung","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":37.4,"pollMargin":0.6,"actualDem":40.702658,"actualRep":36.237059,"actualMargin":4.4656,"actualDRShare":76.939717,"signedError":-3.8656,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.8656,"individualPollMAE":3.8656,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-25","2014-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":4.4656,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"35","pollster":"Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":0.6,"signedError":-3.8656,"selectedQuestionIds":["42010"],"selectedPollIds":["34316"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1240","race":"2014_Gov-G_OR","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"John Kitzhaber","republican":"Dennis Richardson","pollDem":47.5,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":8.5,"actualDem":49.889196,"actualRep":44.126999,"actualMargin":5.762198,"actualDRShare":94.016195,"signedError":2.737802,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.737802,"individualPollMAE":2.737802,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-25","2014-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":5.762198,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"87","pollster":"Elway Research","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":1.237802,"selectedQuestionIds":["42036"],"selectedPollIds":["34342"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":4.237802,"selectedQuestionIds":["42006"],"selectedPollIds":["34312"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1241","race":"2014_Gov-G_MD","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Anthony Brown","republican":"Larry Hogan","pollDem":42.5,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-1.5,"actualDem":47.247915,"actualRep":51.027679,"actualMargin":-3.779764,"actualDRShare":98.275594,"signedError":2.279764,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.279764,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-3.779764,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"121","pollster":"Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.779764,"selectedQuestionIds":["41148"],"selectedPollIds":["33911"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"383","pollster":"WPA Intelligence","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-1.220236,"selectedQuestionIds":["42090"],"selectedPollIds":["34396"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1242","race":"2014_Gov-G_OK","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Joe Dorman","republican":"Mary Fallin","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":48.4,"pollMargin":-8.4,"actualDem":41.007067,"actualRep":55.805129,"actualMargin":-14.798062,"actualDRShare":96.812195,"signedError":6.398062,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.398062,"individualPollMAE":6.398062,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-27","2014-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-14.798062,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-8.4,"signedError":6.398062,"selectedQuestionIds":["42091"],"selectedPollIds":["34397"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1243","race":"2014_Gov-G_OH","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Edward FitzGerald","republican":"John Richard Kasich","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":56.5,"pollMargin":-21.5,"actualDem":33.029703,"actualRep":63.642126,"actualMargin":-30.612423,"actualDRShare":96.671829,"signedError":9.112423,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.112423,"individualPollMAE":9.112423,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-26","2014-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-30.612423,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":15.612423,"selectedQuestionIds":["112352"],"selectedPollIds":["62494"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":2.612423,"selectedQuestionIds":["42038"],"selectedPollIds":["34344"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1245","race":"2014_Gov-G_WI","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Mary Burke","republican":"Scott Walker","pollDem":44.333333,"pollRep":47.666667,"pollMargin":-3.333333,"actualDem":46.58783,"actualRep":52.263149,"actualMargin":-5.675319,"actualDRShare":98.85098,"signedError":2.341985,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.341985,"individualPollMAE":3.225106,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2014-10-25","2014-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-5.675319,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-1.324681,"selectedQuestionIds":["42017"],"selectedPollIds":["34323"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":4.675319,"selectedQuestionIds":["42044"],"selectedPollIds":["34350"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":3.675319,"selectedQuestionIds":["42054"],"selectedPollIds":["34360"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1246","race":"2014_Gov-G_TN","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Charles V. Brown","republican":"William Edward Haslam","pollDem":18.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-33.0,"actualDem":22.843363,"actualRep":70.30925,"actualMargin":-47.465887,"actualDRShare":93.152613,"signedError":14.465887,"absoluteAverageMiss":14.465887,"individualPollMAE":14.465887,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-24","2014-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-47.465887,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"208","pollster":"Middle Tennessee State University","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":14.465887,"selectedQuestionIds":["112360"],"selectedPollIds":["34510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1247","race":"2014_Gov-G_CO","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"John Wright Hickenlooper","republican":"Bob Beauprez","pollDem":45.857143,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":0.857143,"actualDem":49.296166,"actualRep":45.953796,"actualMargin":3.34237,"actualDRShare":95.249963,"signedError":-2.485227,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.485227,"individualPollMAE":2.958836,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":3.34237,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.34237,"selectedQuestionIds":["42079"],"selectedPollIds":["34385"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-5.34237,"selectedQuestionIds":["42064"],"selectedPollIds":["34370"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-5.34237,"selectedQuestionIds":["42049"],"selectedPollIds":["34355"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"321","pollster":"Strategies 360","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.34237,"selectedQuestionIds":["42047"],"selectedPollIds":["34353"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.34237,"selectedQuestionIds":["42045"],"selectedPollIds":["34351"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":1.65763,"selectedQuestionIds":["42075"],"selectedPollIds":["34381"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.34237,"selectedQuestionIds":["42032"],"selectedPollIds":["34338"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1248","race":"2014_Gov-G_MI","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Mark Schauer","republican":"Rick Snyder","pollDem":44.333333,"pollRep":46.166667,"pollMargin":-1.833333,"actualDem":46.85704,"actualRep":50.922959,"actualMargin":-4.065919,"actualDRShare":97.78,"signedError":2.232586,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.232586,"individualPollMAE":2.543946,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-4.065919,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"52","pollster":"Clarity Campaign Labs","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":4.065919,"selectedQuestionIds":["42003"],"selectedPollIds":["34309"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":2.065919,"selectedQuestionIds":["42048"],"selectedPollIds":["34354"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"117","pollster":"Glengariff Group","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-0.934081,"selectedQuestionIds":["41296"],"selectedPollIds":["33989"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":4.065919,"selectedQuestionIds":["42011"],"selectedPollIds":["34317"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":3.065919,"selectedQuestionIds":["42022"],"selectedPollIds":["34328"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":1.065919,"selectedQuestionIds":["41785"],"selectedPollIds":["33830"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1249","race":"2014_Gov-G_GA","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Jason J. Carter","republican":"J. Nathan Deal","pollDem":43.25,"pollRep":47.68,"pollMargin":-4.43,"actualDem":44.89008,"actualRep":52.749924,"actualMargin":-7.859844,"actualDRShare":97.640004,"signedError":3.429844,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.429844,"individualPollMAE":3.429844,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-7.859844,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":9.859844,"selectedQuestionIds":["41578"],"selectedPollIds":["33793"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":4.859844,"selectedQuestionIds":["42084"],"selectedPollIds":["34390"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":-6.3,"signedError":1.559844,"selectedQuestionIds":["42083"],"selectedPollIds":["34389"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.859844,"selectedQuestionIds":["42021"],"selectedPollIds":["34327"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":1.859844,"selectedQuestionIds":["42058"],"selectedPollIds":["34364"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":3.859844,"selectedQuestionIds":["42023"],"selectedPollIds":["34329"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":1.859844,"selectedQuestionIds":["42029"],"selectedPollIds":["34335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.859844,"selectedQuestionIds":["42053"],"selectedPollIds":["34359"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":0.859844,"selectedQuestionIds":["112342"],"selectedPollIds":["34484"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":3.859844,"selectedQuestionIds":["42055"],"selectedPollIds":["34361"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1250","race":"2014_Gov-G_PA","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Thomas W. Wolf","republican":"Thomas W. Corbett","pollDem":50.25,"pollRep":41.25,"pollMargin":9.0,"actualDem":54.932168,"actualRep":45.067832,"actualMargin":9.864337,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.864337,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.864337,"individualPollMAE":2.0,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":9.864337,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-2.864337,"selectedQuestionIds":["127033"],"selectedPollIds":["34341"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"132","pollster":"Harper Polling","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":0.135663,"selectedQuestionIds":["42073"],"selectedPollIds":["34379"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"179","pollster":"Magellan Strategies","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-2.864337,"selectedQuestionIds":["42009"],"selectedPollIds":["34315"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":2.135663,"selectedQuestionIds":["42074"],"selectedPollIds":["34380"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1251","race":"2014_Gov-G_MA","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Martha Coakley","republican":"Charles D. Baker","pollDem":42.16,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-2.84,"actualDem":46.536436,"actualRep":48.397369,"actualMargin":-1.860933,"actualDRShare":94.933805,"signedError":-0.979067,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.979067,"individualPollMAE":2.695627,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-1.860933,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-4.139067,"selectedQuestionIds":["42037"],"selectedPollIds":["34343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.860933,"selectedQuestionIds":["41964"],"selectedPollIds":["34289"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"162","pollster":"Kiley & Company","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.139067,"selectedQuestionIds":["137909"],"selectedPollIds":["73505"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"198","pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.860933,"selectedQuestionIds":["42012"],"selectedPollIds":["34318"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-2.139067,"selectedQuestionIds":["42026"],"selectedPollIds":["34332"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"307","pollster":"SocialSphere","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-5.139067,"selectedQuestionIds":["127053"],"selectedPollIds":["34313"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-3.4,"signedError":-1.539067,"selectedQuestionIds":["42024"],"selectedPollIds":["34330"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-2.139067,"selectedQuestionIds":["42067"],"selectedPollIds":["34373"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"380","pollster":"Western New England University Polling Institute","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-3.139067,"selectedQuestionIds":["42050"],"selectedPollIds":["34356"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.860933,"selectedQuestionIds":["42070"],"selectedPollIds":["34376"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1252","race":"2014_Gov-G_IL","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Pat Quinn","republican":"Bruce Rauner","pollDem":46.82,"pollRep":45.72,"pollMargin":1.1,"actualDem":46.347483,"actualRep":50.269648,"actualMargin":-3.922165,"actualDRShare":96.617131,"signedError":5.022165,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.022165,"individualPollMAE":5.022165,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-3.922165,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"202","pollster":"McKeon & Associates","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.922165,"selectedQuestionIds":["112348"],"selectedPollIds":["34512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"425","pollster":"Ogden & Fry","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":-3.5,"signedError":0.422165,"selectedQuestionIds":["112346"],"selectedPollIds":["62490"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.922165,"selectedQuestionIds":["42089"],"selectedPollIds":["34395"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.922165,"selectedQuestionIds":["41419"],"selectedPollIds":["34052"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":8.922165,"selectedQuestionIds":["42019"],"selectedPollIds":["34325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1253","race":"2014_Gov-G_FL","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Charlie Crist","republican":"Rick Scott","pollDem":41.811111,"pollRep":41.755556,"pollMargin":0.055556,"actualDem":47.06661,"actualRep":48.144394,"actualMargin":-1.077784,"actualDRShare":95.211004,"signedError":1.13334,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.13334,"individualPollMAE":2.525928,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-1.077784,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"49","pollster":"Cherry Communications","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-3.922216,"selectedQuestionIds":["42056"],"selectedPollIds":["34362"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.077784,"selectedQuestionIds":["42001"],"selectedPollIds":["34307"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.077784,"selectedQuestionIds":["42060"],"selectedPollIds":["34366"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.077784,"selectedQuestionIds":["42005"],"selectedPollIds":["34311"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"302","pollster":"SEA Polling & Strategic Design","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.922216,"selectedQuestionIds":["112339"],"selectedPollIds":["62485"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"349","pollster":"University of Florida Bob Graham Center for Public Service","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.077784,"selectedQuestionIds":["42093"],"selectedPollIds":["34399"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.077784,"selectedQuestionIds":["42076"],"selectedPollIds":["34382"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":8.077784,"selectedQuestionIds":["42040"],"selectedPollIds":["34346"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"245","pollster":"Øptimus Analytics","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-1.5,"signedError":-0.422216,"selectedQuestionIds":["100387"],"selectedPollIds":["58857"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1255","race":"2014_Gov-G_CA","series":"governor","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Jerry Brown","republican":"Neel Kashkari","pollDem":53.666667,"pollRep":34.333333,"pollMargin":19.333333,"actualDem":59.970201,"actualRep":40.029799,"actualMargin":19.940401,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.607068,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.607068,"individualPollMAE":1.313467,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":19.940401,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":1.059599,"selectedQuestionIds":["42065"],"selectedPollIds":["34371"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"127","pollster":"Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-0.940401,"selectedQuestionIds":["112337"],"selectedPollIds":["62483"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-1.940401,"selectedQuestionIds":["42028"],"selectedPollIds":["34334"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1256","race":"2013_Gov-G_NJ","series":"governor","year":2013,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2013,"electionDate":"2013-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Barbara Buono","republican":"Chris Christie","pollDem":34.666667,"pollRep":58.833333,"pollMargin":-24.166667,"actualDem":38.190909,"actualRep":60.302348,"actualMargin":-22.111439,"actualDRShare":98.493257,"signedError":-2.055227,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.055227,"individualPollMAE":5.166667,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2013-10-25","2013-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-22.111439,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2013-10-27","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":3.111439,"selectedQuestionIds":["117679"],"selectedPollIds":["63930"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2013-11-01","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":2.111439,"selectedQuestionIds":["117709"],"selectedPollIds":["63954"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2013-11-01","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":-5.888561,"selectedQuestionIds":["117732"],"selectedPollIds":["63969"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2013-10-28","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":4.111439,"selectedQuestionIds":["117395"],"selectedPollIds":["63758"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2013-10-30","pollMargin":-36.0,"signedError":-13.888561,"selectedQuestionIds":["117746"],"selectedPollIds":["63980"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"317","pollster":"Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy","date":"2013-10-25","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-1.888561,"selectedQuestionIds":["117753"],"selectedPollIds":["63987"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1257","race":"2013_Gov-G_VA","series":"governor","year":2013,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2013,"electionDate":"2013-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Terry R. McAuliffe","republican":"Kenneth T. Cuccinelli","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":37.518182,"pollMargin":7.481818,"actualDem":47.735614,"actualRep":45.217398,"actualMargin":2.518216,"actualDRShare":92.953012,"signedError":4.963603,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.963603,"individualPollMAE":5.333863,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2013-10-22","2013-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":2.518216,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2013-10-26","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":9.481784,"selectedQuestionIds":["117652"],"selectedPollIds":["63908"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"50","pollster":"Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership","date":"2013-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.481784,"selectedQuestionIds":["117666"],"selectedPollIds":["63918"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"55","pollster":"Clout Research","date":"2013-10-22","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.518216,"selectedQuestionIds":["117669"],"selectedPollIds":["63920"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2013-10-27","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.518216,"selectedQuestionIds":["117674"],"selectedPollIds":["63925"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"131","pollster":"Hampton University Center for Public Policy","date":"2013-10-26","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.481784,"selectedQuestionIds":["117685"],"selectedPollIds":["63932"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"238","pollster":"Old Dominion University","date":"2013-10-22","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.481784,"selectedQuestionIds":["117716"],"selectedPollIds":["63957"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2013-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.481784,"selectedQuestionIds":["117724"],"selectedPollIds":["63961"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2013-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.481784,"selectedQuestionIds":["117735"],"selectedPollIds":["63972"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2013-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.481784,"selectedQuestionIds":["117393"],"selectedPollIds":["63757"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2013-10-24","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":12.481784,"selectedQuestionIds":["117745"],"selectedPollIds":["63979"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2013-11-02","pollMargin":12.3,"signedError":9.781784,"selectedQuestionIds":["117647","137933"],"selectedPollIds":["63903","73518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1258","race":"2012_Gov-G_MT","series":"governor","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Steve Bullock","republican":"Richard A. Hill","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":45.666667,"pollMargin":1.333333,"actualDem":48.904939,"actualRep":47.339029,"actualMargin":1.565909,"actualDRShare":96.243968,"signedError":-0.232576,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.232576,"individualPollMAE":3.855303,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-30","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":1.565909,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-4.565909,"selectedQuestionIds":["86940"],"selectedPollIds":["51340"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.434091,"selectedQuestionIds":["137940"],"selectedPollIds":["73522"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.565909,"selectedQuestionIds":["86935"],"selectedPollIds":["30681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"126","race":"2018_Sen-G_WV","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"Joe Manchin, III","republican":"Patrick Morrisey","pollDem":46.15,"pollRep":40.75,"pollMargin":5.4,"actualDem":49.572209,"actualRep":46.262333,"actualMargin":3.309876,"actualDRShare":95.834542,"signedError":2.090124,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.090124,"individualPollMAE":2.090124,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":3.309876,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":5.8,"signedError":2.490124,"selectedQuestionIds":["91197"],"selectedPollIds":["56634"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"268","pollster":"Repass","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":1.690124,"selectedQuestionIds":["91191"],"selectedPollIds":["56629"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1260","race":"2012_Gov-G_IN","series":"governor","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"John R. Gregg","republican":"Mike Pence","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":47.75,"pollMargin":-7.75,"actualDem":46.560451,"actualRep":49.48627,"actualMargin":-2.92582,"actualDRShare":96.046721,"signedError":-4.82418,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.82418,"individualPollMAE":4.82418,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-2.92582,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"52","pollster":"Clarity Campaign Labs","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-0.07418,"selectedQuestionIds":["87068"],"selectedPollIds":["30831"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"142","pollster":"Howey Politics/DePauw University","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-4.07418,"selectedQuestionIds":["86941"],"selectedPollIds":["30585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"203","pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-9.07418,"selectedQuestionIds":["87065"],"selectedPollIds":["30619"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"337","pollster":"The Polling Company Inc.","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-6.07418,"selectedQuestionIds":["87069"],"selectedPollIds":["54019"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1261","race":"2012_Gov-G_MO","series":"governor","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Jay Nixon","republican":"David Spence","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":39.75,"pollMargin":11.25,"actualDem":54.769798,"actualRep":42.533532,"actualMargin":12.236265,"actualDRShare":97.30333,"signedError":-0.986265,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.986265,"individualPollMAE":5.868133,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":12.236265,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"162","pollster":"Kiley & Company","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":9.763735,"selectedQuestionIds":["92100"],"selectedPollIds":["30363"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-6.236265,"selectedQuestionIds":["86949"],"selectedPollIds":["30360"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-4.236265,"selectedQuestionIds":["86955"],"selectedPollIds":["30683"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-3.236265,"selectedQuestionIds":["86942"],"selectedPollIds":["30736"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1262","race":"2012_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Maggie Hassan","republican":"Ovide Lamontagne","pollDem":49.2,"pollRep":44.2,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":54.61112,"actualRep":42.518487,"actualMargin":12.092633,"actualDRShare":97.129607,"signedError":-7.092633,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.092633,"individualPollMAE":7.092633,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":12.092633,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-7.092633,"selectedQuestionIds":["86943"],"selectedPollIds":["30538"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"228","pollster":"New England College Polling Center","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-10.092633,"selectedQuestionIds":["86932"],"selectedPollIds":["30754"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-8.092633,"selectedQuestionIds":["86933"],"selectedPollIds":["30729"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-7.092633,"selectedQuestionIds":["86931"],"selectedPollIds":["30752"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-3.092633,"selectedQuestionIds":["124738"],"selectedPollIds":["30749"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1263","race":"2012_Gov-G_NC","series":"governor","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Walter H. Dalton","republican":"Pat McCrory","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":52.25,"pollMargin":-14.25,"actualDem":43.228569,"actualRep":54.622781,"actualMargin":-11.394212,"actualDRShare":97.85135,"signedError":-2.855788,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.855788,"individualPollMAE":5.052894,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-11.394212,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"86","pollster":"Elon University","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-2.605788,"selectedQuestionIds":["87073"],"selectedPollIds":["30415"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":4.394212,"selectedQuestionIds":["87062"],"selectedPollIds":["30745"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-7.605788,"selectedQuestionIds":["86947"],"selectedPollIds":["30362"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-5.605788,"selectedQuestionIds":["87067"],"selectedPollIds":["30469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1264","race":"2012_Gov-G_ND","series":"governor","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ND","democrat":"Ryan M. Taylor","republican":"Jack Dalrymple","pollDem":28.0,"pollRep":62.0,"pollMargin":-34.0,"actualDem":34.311893,"actualRep":63.095081,"actualMargin":-28.783188,"actualDRShare":97.406974,"signedError":-5.216812,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.216812,"individualPollMAE":5.216812,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-27","2012-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-28.783188,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-34.0,"signedError":-5.216812,"selectedQuestionIds":["87059"],"selectedPollIds":["30465"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1265","race":"2012_Gov-G_UT","series":"governor","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Peter S. Cooke","republican":"Gary Richard Herbert","pollDem":24.0,"pollRep":69.0,"pollMargin":-45.0,"actualDem":27.582253,"actualRep":68.412874,"actualMargin":-40.830621,"actualDRShare":95.995128,"signedError":-4.169379,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.169379,"individualPollMAE":4.169379,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-40.830621,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-45.0,"signedError":-4.169379,"selectedQuestionIds":["87064"],"selectedPollIds":["30618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1267","race":"2012_Gov-G_WA","series":"governor","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Jay Robert Inslee","republican":"Rob McKenna","pollDem":48.566667,"pollRep":46.533333,"pollMargin":2.033333,"actualDem":51.539491,"actualRep":48.460509,"actualMargin":3.078983,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-1.045649,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.045649,"individualPollMAE":1.059661,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":3.078983,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.078983,"selectedQuestionIds":["86937"],"selectedPollIds":["30662"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.078983,"selectedQuestionIds":["86944"],"selectedPollIds":["30543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"364","pollster":"University of Washington Center for Survey Research","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":3.1,"signedError":0.021017,"selectedQuestionIds":["86956"],"selectedPollIds":["30562"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1269","race":"2012_Gov-GS_WI","series":"governor","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-06-05","raceKind":"GS","location":"WI","democrat":"Thomas M. Barrett","republican":"Scott Walker","pollDem":46.142857,"pollRep":50.714286,"pollMargin":-4.571429,"actualDem":46.281793,"actualRep":53.082293,"actualMargin":-6.8005,"actualDRShare":99.364086,"signedError":2.229071,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.229071,"individualPollMAE":3.771643,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2012-05-23","2012-06-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-6.8005,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-06-01","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":1.8005,"selectedQuestionIds":["87124"],"selectedPollIds":["54028"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2012-05-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":4.8005,"selectedQuestionIds":["87166"],"selectedPollIds":["54040"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"165","pollster":"Lake Research Partners","date":"2012-05-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":6.8005,"selectedQuestionIds":["87127"],"selectedPollIds":["54029"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2012-05-25","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-0.1995,"selectedQuestionIds":["87054"],"selectedPollIds":["18293"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2012-05-23","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":3.8005,"selectedQuestionIds":["87131"],"selectedPollIds":["54031"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-06-02","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":3.8005,"selectedQuestionIds":["87123"],"selectedPollIds":["54027"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-06-03","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-5.1995,"selectedQuestionIds":["87122"],"selectedPollIds":["54026"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"127","race":"2018_Sen-G_WI","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Tammy Baldwin","republican":"Leah Vukmir","pollDem":52.366667,"pollRep":42.133333,"pollMargin":10.233333,"actualDem":55.356828,"actualRep":44.531775,"actualMargin":10.825053,"actualDRShare":99.888603,"signedError":-0.591719,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.591719,"individualPollMAE":0.824982,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-26","2018-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":10.825053,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":8.7,"signedError":-2.125053,"selectedQuestionIds":["91275"],"selectedPollIds":["56671"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":0.174947,"selectedQuestionIds":["91132"],"selectedPollIds":["56602"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":0.174947,"selectedQuestionIds":["91549"],"selectedPollIds":["56805"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1270","race":"2011_Gov-G_MS","series":"governor","year":2011,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2011,"electionDate":"2011-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MS","democrat":"Johnny L. DuPree","republican":"Phil Bryant","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-14.0,"actualDem":39.018409,"actualRep":60.981591,"actualMargin":-21.963182,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":7.963182,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.963182,"individualPollMAE":7.963182,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2011-11-05","2011-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-21.963182,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2011-11-05","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":7.963182,"selectedQuestionIds":["117717"],"selectedPollIds":["7"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1271","race":"2011_Gov-G_KY","series":"governor","year":2011,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2011,"electionDate":"2011-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Steve Beshear","republican":"David L. Williams","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":25.0,"actualDem":55.722394,"actualRep":35.29231,"actualMargin":20.430084,"actualDRShare":91.014705,"signedError":4.569916,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.569916,"individualPollMAE":4.569916,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2011-10-30","2011-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":20.430084,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2011-10-30","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":4.569916,"selectedQuestionIds":["117447"],"selectedPollIds":["63794"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1273","race":"2011_Gov-GS_WV","series":"governor","year":2011,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2011,"electionDate":"2011-10-04","raceKind":"GS","location":"WV","democrat":"Earl Ray Tomblin","republican":"Bill Maloney","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":49.554941,"actualRep":47.048664,"actualMargin":2.506277,"actualDRShare":96.603606,"signedError":-1.506277,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.506277,"individualPollMAE":1.506277,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2011-10-01","2011-10-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":2.506277,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2011-10-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.506277,"selectedQuestionIds":["117718"],"selectedPollIds":["191"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1275","race":"2010_Gov-G_AK","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Ethan Berkowitz","republican":"Sean R. Parnell","pollDem":41.5,"pollRep":52.5,"pollMargin":-11.0,"actualDem":37.674479,"actualRep":59.064296,"actualMargin":-21.389817,"actualDRShare":96.738774,"signedError":10.389817,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.389817,"individualPollMAE":10.389817,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-21.389817,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"79","pollster":"Dittman Research","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":10.389817,"selectedQuestionIds":["83525","83526"],"selectedPollIds":["32742","52844"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":10.389817,"selectedQuestionIds":["83524"],"selectedPollIds":["32799"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1276","race":"2010_Gov-G_AZ","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Samuel Pearson Goddard","republican":"Janice Kay Brewer","pollDem":41.5,"pollRep":52.5,"pollMargin":-11.0,"actualDem":42.471099,"actualRep":54.333911,"actualMargin":-11.862812,"actualDRShare":96.805011,"signedError":0.862812,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.862812,"individualPollMAE":3.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-11.862812,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":3.862812,"selectedQuestionIds":["83541"],"selectedPollIds":["32656"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-2.137188,"selectedQuestionIds":["83540"],"selectedPollIds":["32760"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1277","race":"2010_Gov-G_AR","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Mike Beebe","republican":"Jim H. Keet","pollDem":60.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":22.0,"actualDem":64.420164,"actualRep":33.632779,"actualMargin":30.787385,"actualDRShare":98.052943,"signedError":-8.787385,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.787385,"individualPollMAE":8.787385,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-28","2010-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":30.787385,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-8.787385,"selectedQuestionIds":["83559"],"selectedPollIds":["32785"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1278","race":"2010_Gov-G_CA","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Jerry Brown","republican":"Meg Whitman","pollDem":48.9,"pollRep":41.8,"pollMargin":7.1,"actualDem":53.769683,"actualRep":40.884749,"actualMargin":12.884935,"actualDRShare":94.654432,"signedError":-5.784935,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.784935,"individualPollMAE":5.784935,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":12.884935,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-7.884935,"selectedQuestionIds":["83577"],"selectedPollIds":["32813"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-5.884935,"selectedQuestionIds":["83581"],"selectedPollIds":["32697"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-2.884935,"selectedQuestionIds":["83583"],"selectedPollIds":["32719"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"203","pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-9.884935,"selectedQuestionIds":["117707"],"selectedPollIds":["63952"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-7.884935,"selectedQuestionIds":["120118"],"selectedPollIds":["32803"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-8.884935,"selectedQuestionIds":["83580"],"selectedPollIds":["32712"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-4.884935,"selectedQuestionIds":["83585"],"selectedPollIds":["32675"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-1.884935,"selectedQuestionIds":["83576"],"selectedPollIds":["32835"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"340","pollster":"Tulchin Research","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-4.884935,"selectedQuestionIds":["117639"],"selectedPollIds":["32847"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-2.884935,"selectedQuestionIds":["83574"],"selectedPollIds":["32829"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1279","race":"2010_Gov-G_CO","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"John Wright Hickenlooper","republican":"Dan Maes","pollDem":47.625,"pollRep":8.5,"pollMargin":39.125,"actualDem":51.051893,"actualRep":11.141969,"actualMargin":39.909924,"actualDRShare":62.193862,"signedError":-0.784924,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.784924,"individualPollMAE":1.397519,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":39.909924,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":41.0,"signedError":1.090076,"selectedQuestionIds":["83654"],"selectedPollIds":["32700"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"179","pollster":"Magellan Strategies","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":35.0,"signedError":-4.909924,"selectedQuestionIds":["83657"],"selectedPollIds":["52905"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":40.0,"signedError":0.090076,"selectedQuestionIds":["83648"],"selectedPollIds":["32751"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":40.0,"signedError":0.090076,"selectedQuestionIds":["83645"],"selectedPollIds":["32801"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"271","pollster":"RBI Strategies & Research","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":38.0,"signedError":-1.909924,"selectedQuestionIds":["83652"],"selectedPollIds":["32691"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":41.0,"signedError":1.090076,"selectedQuestionIds":["83646"],"selectedPollIds":["42410"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":40.0,"signedError":0.090076,"selectedQuestionIds":["83656"],"selectedPollIds":["32645"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":38.0,"signedError":-1.909924,"selectedQuestionIds":["83650"],"selectedPollIds":["32762"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"128","race":"2018_Sen-G_WY","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WY","democrat":"Gary Trauner","republican":"John Barrasso","pollDem":31.0,"pollRep":60.0,"pollMargin":-29.0,"actualDem":30.09881,"actualRep":66.959984,"actualMargin":-36.861174,"actualDRShare":97.058795,"signedError":7.861174,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.861174,"individualPollMAE":7.861174,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-36.861174,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-29.0,"signedError":7.861174,"selectedQuestionIds":["91450"],"selectedPollIds":["56761"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1281","race":"2010_Gov-G_FL","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Alex Sink","republican":"Rick Scott","pollDem":44.375,"pollRep":44.75,"pollMargin":-0.375,"actualDem":47.722229,"actualRep":48.870606,"actualMargin":-1.148378,"actualDRShare":96.592835,"signedError":0.773378,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.773378,"individualPollMAE":2.912094,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-1.148378,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.148378,"selectedQuestionIds":["83717"],"selectedPollIds":["52934"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.148378,"selectedQuestionIds":["83709"],"selectedPollIds":["1066"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.148378,"selectedQuestionIds":["83713"],"selectedPollIds":["32833"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.851622,"selectedQuestionIds":["83716"],"selectedPollIds":["32747"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2010-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-2.851622,"selectedQuestionIds":["83708"],"selectedPollIds":["52928"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"99","pollster":"The Florida Poll","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-3.851622,"selectedQuestionIds":["83718"],"selectedPollIds":["52935"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.148378,"selectedQuestionIds":["83711"],"selectedPollIds":["32826"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":5.148378,"selectedQuestionIds":["83721"],"selectedPollIds":["32650"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1282","race":"2010_Gov-G_GA","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Roy Barnes","republican":"J. Nathan Deal","pollDem":40.14,"pollRep":48.08,"pollMargin":-7.94,"actualDem":42.971344,"actualRep":53.018115,"actualMargin":-10.046771,"actualDRShare":95.989459,"signedError":2.106771,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.106771,"individualPollMAE":2.106771,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-10.046771,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-5.8,"signedError":4.246771,"selectedQuestionIds":["83767"],"selectedPollIds":["52964"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-6.9,"signedError":3.146771,"selectedQuestionIds":["83765"],"selectedPollIds":["52963"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":3.046771,"selectedQuestionIds":["83764"],"selectedPollIds":["32786"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":0.046771,"selectedQuestionIds":["83766"],"selectedPollIds":["32705"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":0.046771,"selectedQuestionIds":["83768"],"selectedPollIds":["32653"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1283","race":"2010_Gov-G_HI","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Neil Abercrombie","republican":"Duke Aiona","pollDem":49.5,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":58.218908,"actualRep":41.120286,"actualMargin":17.098622,"actualDRShare":99.339194,"signedError":-12.098622,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.098622,"individualPollMAE":12.098622,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":17.098622,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-12.098622,"selectedQuestionIds":["83786"],"selectedPollIds":["51744"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1284","race":"2010_Gov-G_ID","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Keith Allred","republican":"C.L. 'Butch' Otter","pollDem":30.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-22.0,"actualDem":32.854917,"actualRep":59.107693,"actualMargin":-26.252776,"actualDRShare":91.962611,"signedError":4.252776,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.252776,"individualPollMAE":4.252776,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-26.252776,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":4.252776,"selectedQuestionIds":["83796"],"selectedPollIds":["32661"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1285","race":"2010_Gov-G_IL","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Pat Quinn","republican":"William E. Brady","pollDem":39.84,"pollRep":45.1,"pollMargin":-5.26,"actualDem":46.788876,"actualRep":45.935415,"actualMargin":0.853461,"actualDRShare":92.724291,"signedError":-6.113461,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.113461,"individualPollMAE":6.113461,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":0.853461,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.853461,"selectedQuestionIds":["137973"],"selectedPollIds":["32641"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.853461,"selectedQuestionIds":["83810"],"selectedPollIds":["32636"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.853461,"selectedQuestionIds":["137966"],"selectedPollIds":["32802"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-6.853461,"selectedQuestionIds":["83804"],"selectedPollIds":["32806"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-7.3,"signedError":-8.153461,"selectedQuestionIds":["83805"],"selectedPollIds":["32791"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1286","race":"2010_Gov-G_IA","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Chet Culver","republican":"Terry E. Branstad","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":43.207877,"actualRep":52.80634,"actualMargin":-9.598463,"actualDRShare":96.014217,"signedError":0.598463,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.598463,"individualPollMAE":3.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-9.598463,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":3.598463,"selectedQuestionIds":["83840"],"selectedPollIds":["52986"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-2.401537,"selectedQuestionIds":["83839"],"selectedPollIds":["32784"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1288","race":"2010_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"John Lynch","republican":"John A. Stephen","pollDem":50.25,"pollRep":43.25,"pollMargin":7.0,"actualDem":52.639579,"actualRep":45.033159,"actualMargin":7.60642,"actualDRShare":97.672738,"signedError":-0.60642,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.60642,"individualPollMAE":1.30321,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":7.60642,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.39358,"selectedQuestionIds":["84028"],"selectedPollIds":["1075"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-1.60642,"selectedQuestionIds":["84029"],"selectedPollIds":["32775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.60642,"selectedQuestionIds":["84027"],"selectedPollIds":["32837"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-1.60642,"selectedQuestionIds":["117662"],"selectedPollIds":["32864"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1289","race":"2010_Gov-G_NM","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Diane D. Denish","republican":"Susana Martinez","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":50.25,"pollMargin":-7.25,"actualDem":46.549673,"actualRep":53.285437,"actualMargin":-6.735763,"actualDRShare":99.83511,"signedError":-0.514237,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.514237,"individualPollMAE":3.382118,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2010-10-22","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-6.735763,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2010-10-22","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":5.735763,"selectedQuestionIds":["84046"],"selectedPollIds":["53129"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2010-10-22","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-1.264237,"selectedQuestionIds":["84045"],"selectedPollIds":["53128"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-3.264237,"selectedQuestionIds":["84043"],"selectedPollIds":["51945"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-3.264237,"selectedQuestionIds":["84044"],"selectedPollIds":["53127"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"129","race":"2018_Sen-GS_MN","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"GS","location":"MN","democrat":"Tina Smith","republican":"Karin Housley","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":37.5,"pollMargin":10.5,"actualDem":52.970677,"actualRep":42.351227,"actualMargin":10.619451,"actualDRShare":95.321904,"signedError":-0.119451,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.119451,"individualPollMAE":2.309725,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":10.619451,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.619451,"selectedQuestionIds":["91538"],"selectedPollIds":["56797"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.619451,"selectedQuestionIds":["91415"],"selectedPollIds":["56739"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"312","pollster":"St. Cloud State University","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":4.380549,"selectedQuestionIds":["124513"],"selectedPollIds":["66738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.619451,"selectedQuestionIds":["91460"],"selectedPollIds":["56652"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1290","race":"2010_Gov-G_OK","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Jari Askins","republican":"Mary Fallin","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":39.551029,"actualRep":60.448971,"actualMargin":-20.897941,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":2.897941,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.897941,"individualPollMAE":2.897941,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-20.897941,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":2.897941,"selectedQuestionIds":["84168"],"selectedPollIds":["53202"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1291","race":"2010_Gov-G_KS","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Tom Holland","republican":"Sam Brownback","pollDem":32.0,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-27.0,"actualDem":32.209015,"actualRep":63.276863,"actualMargin":-31.067848,"actualDRShare":95.485878,"signedError":4.067848,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.067848,"individualPollMAE":4.067848,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-31.067848,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":4.067848,"selectedQuestionIds":["83855"],"selectedPollIds":["32730"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1293","race":"2010_Gov-G_MD","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Martin O'Malley","republican":"Robert Ehrlich Jr.","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":56.244806,"actualRep":41.785207,"actualMargin":14.459599,"actualDRShare":98.030013,"signedError":-2.459599,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.459599,"individualPollMAE":2.459599,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":14.459599,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.459599,"selectedQuestionIds":["83881"],"selectedPollIds":["32692"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-4.459599,"selectedQuestionIds":["83880"],"selectedPollIds":["32679"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1294","race":"2010_Gov-G_MA","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Deval Patrick","republican":"Charles D. Baker","pollDem":44.25,"pollRep":39.75,"pollMargin":4.5,"actualDem":48.422469,"actualRep":42.004772,"actualMargin":6.417697,"actualDRShare":90.427241,"signedError":-1.917697,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.917697,"individualPollMAE":2.208848,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":6.417697,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-4.417697,"selectedQuestionIds":["83902"],"selectedPollIds":["53023"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":0.582303,"selectedQuestionIds":["83903"],"selectedPollIds":["53024"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.417697,"selectedQuestionIds":["83904"],"selectedPollIds":["53025"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"380","pollster":"Western New England University Polling Institute","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-1.417697,"selectedQuestionIds":["83901"],"selectedPollIds":["53022"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1295","race":"2010_Gov-G_MI","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Virgil Bernero","republican":"Rick Snyder","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":39.903437,"actualRep":58.114782,"actualMargin":-18.211345,"actualDRShare":98.018219,"signedError":0.211345,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.211345,"individualPollMAE":0.211345,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-18.211345,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":0.211345,"selectedQuestionIds":["83936"],"selectedPollIds":["53055"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"117","pollster":"Glengariff Group","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":0.211345,"selectedQuestionIds":["83935"],"selectedPollIds":["53054"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1296","race":"2010_Gov-G_MN","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Mark Dayton","republican":"Tom Emmer","pollDem":41.333333,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":4.333333,"actualDem":43.627092,"actualRep":43.210865,"actualMargin":0.416227,"actualDRShare":86.837957,"signedError":3.917106,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.917106,"individualPollMAE":4.055848,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":0.416227,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":6.583773,"selectedQuestionIds":["83956"],"selectedPollIds":["53074"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.416227,"selectedQuestionIds":["137971"],"selectedPollIds":["73531"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.583773,"selectedQuestionIds":["83953"],"selectedPollIds":["53071"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.583773,"selectedQuestionIds":["83960"],"selectedPollIds":["53076"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.583773,"selectedQuestionIds":["83954"],"selectedPollIds":["53072"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"143","pollster":"University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":11.583773,"selectedQuestionIds":["83955"],"selectedPollIds":["53073"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1297","race":"2010_Gov-G_NV","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Rory Reid","republican":"Brian E. Sandoval","pollDem":37.166667,"pollRep":54.833333,"pollMargin":-17.666667,"actualDem":41.613249,"actualRep":53.361413,"actualMargin":-11.748164,"actualDRShare":94.974663,"signedError":-5.918503,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.918503,"individualPollMAE":6.167891,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-11.748164,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-12.251836,"selectedQuestionIds":["83983"],"selectedPollIds":["32702"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-4.251836,"selectedQuestionIds":["83982"],"selectedPollIds":["32723"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":0.748164,"selectedQuestionIds":["83979"],"selectedPollIds":["1065"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":-11.251836,"selectedQuestionIds":["83985"],"selectedPollIds":["32680"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-4.251836,"selectedQuestionIds":["83980"],"selectedPollIds":["32789"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-4.251836,"selectedQuestionIds":["117661"],"selectedPollIds":["32863"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1299","race":"2010_Gov-G_OH","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Ted Strickland","republican":"John Richard Kasich","pollDem":45.444444,"pollRep":48.333333,"pollMargin":-2.888889,"actualDem":47.036303,"actualRep":49.038318,"actualMargin":-2.002015,"actualDRShare":96.074621,"signedError":-0.886874,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.886874,"individualPollMAE":1.332662,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-2.002015,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-0.997985,"selectedQuestionIds":["84100"],"selectedPollIds":["32812"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.002015,"selectedQuestionIds":["84101"],"selectedPollIds":["32780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.002015,"selectedQuestionIds":["84098"],"selectedPollIds":["32779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.002015,"selectedQuestionIds":["84099"],"selectedPollIds":["32832"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.997985,"selectedQuestionIds":["84097"],"selectedPollIds":["42418"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.997985,"selectedQuestionIds":["84105"],"selectedPollIds":["32707"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.997985,"selectedQuestionIds":["84096"],"selectedPollIds":["32816"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-0.997985,"selectedQuestionIds":["84095"],"selectedPollIds":["32824"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-0.997985,"selectedQuestionIds":["117663"],"selectedPollIds":["32865"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1300","race":"2010_Gov-G_OR","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"John Kitzhaber","republican":"Chris Dudley","pollDem":47.25,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":2.75,"actualDem":49.294898,"actualRep":47.764986,"actualMargin":1.529912,"actualDRShare":97.059884,"signedError":1.220088,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.220088,"individualPollMAE":3.485044,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":1.529912,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":1.470088,"selectedQuestionIds":["84179"],"selectedPollIds":["53208"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":2.470088,"selectedQuestionIds":["84183"],"selectedPollIds":["53210"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-4.529912,"selectedQuestionIds":["84181"],"selectedPollIds":["32713"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.470088,"selectedQuestionIds":["84180"],"selectedPollIds":["32748"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1301","race":"2010_Gov-G_PA","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Dan Onorato","republican":"Thomas W. Corbett","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":50.7,"pollMargin":-8.7,"actualDem":45.511343,"actualRep":54.488657,"actualMargin":-8.977315,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.277315,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.277315,"individualPollMAE":2.295463,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-8.977315,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.977315,"selectedQuestionIds":["84215"],"selectedPollIds":["32696"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-7.022685,"selectedQuestionIds":["84222"],"selectedPollIds":["32685"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":2.977315,"selectedQuestionIds":["84219"],"selectedPollIds":["32672"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.977315,"selectedQuestionIds":["84207"],"selectedPollIds":["32752"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.977315,"selectedQuestionIds":["84203"],"selectedPollIds":["32834"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.977315,"selectedQuestionIds":["84200"],"selectedPollIds":["32800"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-1.022685,"selectedQuestionIds":["84205"],"selectedPollIds":["32828"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-0.022685,"selectedQuestionIds":["137968"],"selectedPollIds":["32740"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.977315,"selectedQuestionIds":["84213"],"selectedPollIds":["32783"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-2.022685,"selectedQuestionIds":["84201"],"selectedPollIds":["32822"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1302","race":"2010_Gov-G_RI","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Frank T. Caprio","republican":"John F. Robitaille","pollDem":26.4,"pollRep":26.166667,"pollMargin":0.233333,"actualDem":23.049461,"actualRep":33.571241,"actualMargin":-10.52178,"actualDRShare":56.620702,"signedError":10.755113,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.755113,"individualPollMAE":10.755113,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-10.52178,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":0.7,"signedError":11.22178,"selectedQuestionIds":["84274"],"selectedPollIds":["52071"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"285","pollster":"Quest Research Group","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":7.52178,"selectedQuestionIds":["84273"],"selectedPollIds":["52070"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":13.52178,"selectedQuestionIds":["84275"],"selectedPollIds":["53250"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1303","race":"2010_Gov-G_SC","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Vincent A. Sheheen","republican":"Nikki Haley","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":46.907822,"actualRep":51.37078,"actualMargin":-4.462959,"actualDRShare":98.278602,"signedError":-7.537041,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.537041,"individualPollMAE":7.537041,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-4.462959,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-9.537041,"selectedQuestionIds":["84292"],"selectedPollIds":["53262"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-22","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-5.537041,"selectedQuestionIds":["137974"],"selectedPollIds":["73533"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1304","race":"2010_Gov-G_SD","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Scott N. Heidepriem","republican":"Dennis M. Daugaard","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":50.666667,"pollMargin":-13.666667,"actualDem":38.487399,"actualRep":61.512601,"actualMargin":-23.025202,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":9.358535,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.358535,"individualPollMAE":9.358535,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-23.025202,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":4.025202,"selectedQuestionIds":["84305"],"selectedPollIds":["52086"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"231","pollster":"Nielson Brothers Polling","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":20.025202,"selectedQuestionIds":["84304"],"selectedPollIds":["52085"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":4.025202,"selectedQuestionIds":["84306"],"selectedPollIds":["52087"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1305","race":"2010_Gov-G_TN","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Mike McWherter","republican":"William Edward Haslam","pollDem":27.8,"pollRep":56.5,"pollMargin":-28.7,"actualDem":33.083658,"actualRep":65.033602,"actualMargin":-31.949943,"actualDRShare":98.11726,"signedError":3.249943,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.249943,"individualPollMAE":3.249943,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-26","2010-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-31.949943,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"63","pollster":"CJ&N","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-28.7,"signedError":3.249943,"selectedQuestionIds":["84340"],"selectedPollIds":["53288"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1306","race":"2010_Gov-G_TX","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Bill White","republican":"Rick Perry","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":42.298193,"actualRep":54.970933,"actualMargin":-12.67274,"actualDRShare":97.269125,"signedError":2.67274,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.67274,"individualPollMAE":2.67274,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-12.67274,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"32","pollster":"Blum & Weprin Associates","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":0.67274,"selectedQuestionIds":["84349"],"selectedPollIds":["53297"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":3.67274,"selectedQuestionIds":["84348"],"selectedPollIds":["53296"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":3.67274,"selectedQuestionIds":["84350"],"selectedPollIds":["53298"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1307","race":"2010_Gov-GS_UT","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"GS","location":"UT","democrat":"Peter Corroon","republican":"Gary Richard Herbert","pollDem":30.5,"pollRep":61.0,"pollMargin":-30.5,"actualDem":31.904829,"actualRep":64.067545,"actualMargin":-32.162715,"actualDRShare":95.972374,"signedError":1.662715,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.662715,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-26","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-32.162715,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-34.0,"signedError":-1.837285,"selectedQuestionIds":["84373"],"selectedPollIds":["32774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":5.162715,"selectedQuestionIds":["84374"],"selectedPollIds":["32750"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1308","race":"2010_Gov-G_VT","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Peter Elliott Shumlin","republican":"Brian Dubie","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":49.478695,"actualRep":47.686099,"actualMargin":1.792595,"actualDRShare":97.164794,"signedError":3.207405,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.207405,"individualPollMAE":3.207405,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-28","2010-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":1.792595,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.207405,"selectedQuestionIds":["84386"],"selectedPollIds":["53327"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1309","race":"2010_Gov-G_WI","series":"governor","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Thomas M. Barrett","republican":"Scott Walker","pollDem":42.571429,"pollRep":49.714286,"pollMargin":-7.142857,"actualDem":46.477607,"actualRep":52.245663,"actualMargin":-5.768056,"actualDRShare":98.72327,"signedError":-1.374801,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.374801,"individualPollMAE":2.956547,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-5.768056,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"102","pollster":"Forward Strategies","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.768056,"selectedQuestionIds":["84393"],"selectedPollIds":["32838"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-1.231944,"selectedQuestionIds":["84395"],"selectedPollIds":["32758"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":3.768056,"selectedQuestionIds":["84398"],"selectedPollIds":["53333"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-3.231944,"selectedQuestionIds":["84394"],"selectedPollIds":["32738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-4.231944,"selectedQuestionIds":["84397"],"selectedPollIds":["32658"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"371","pollster":"Voter/Consumer Research","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-2.231944,"selectedQuestionIds":["137970"],"selectedPollIds":["32715"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-4.231944,"selectedQuestionIds":["84391"],"selectedPollIds":["32795"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1311","race":"2009_Gov-G_NJ","series":"governor","year":2009,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2009,"electionDate":"2009-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Jon Stevens Corzine","republican":"Chris Christie","pollDem":41.727273,"pollRep":41.636364,"pollMargin":0.090909,"actualDem":44.879242,"actualRep":48.457018,"actualMargin":-3.577777,"actualDRShare":93.33626,"signedError":3.668686,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.668686,"individualPollMAE":4.731312,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":20,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2009-10-24","2009-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-3.577777,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2009-10-27","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.577777,"selectedQuestionIds":["137993"],"selectedPollIds":["73540"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2009-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":9.577777,"selectedQuestionIds":["137995"],"selectedPollIds":["42290"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2009-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.577777,"selectedQuestionIds":["117714"],"selectedPollIds":["42433"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"227","pollster":"Neighborhood Research and Media","date":"2009-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-3.422223,"selectedQuestionIds":["117715"],"selectedPollIds":["42580"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2009-10-31","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-2.422223,"selectedQuestionIds":["117720"],"selectedPollIds":["44245"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2009-10-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":1.577777,"selectedQuestionIds":["117730"],"selectedPollIds":["63967"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2009-10-29","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.577777,"selectedQuestionIds":["117387"],"selectedPollIds":["42478"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2009-10-24","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":12.577777,"selectedQuestionIds":["117755"],"selectedPollIds":["42454"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2009-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.577777,"selectedQuestionIds":["117441"],"selectedPollIds":["63788"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2009-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.577777,"selectedQuestionIds":["117644"],"selectedPollIds":["63900"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2009-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":4.577777,"selectedQuestionIds":["117651"],"selectedPollIds":["63907"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1312","race":"2009_Gov-G_VA","series":"governor","year":2009,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2009,"electionDate":"2009-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"R. Creigh Deeds","republican":"Robert Francis McDonnell","pollDem":40.375,"pollRep":54.75,"pollMargin":-14.375,"actualDem":41.254786,"actualRep":58.619175,"actualMargin":-17.364389,"actualDRShare":99.873961,"signedError":2.989389,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.989389,"individualPollMAE":3.307194,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2009-10-23","2009-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-17.364389,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2009-10-24","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":6.364389,"selectedQuestionIds":["117655"],"selectedPollIds":["63911"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2009-10-28","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":5.364389,"selectedQuestionIds":["117706"],"selectedPollIds":["42559"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2009-10-31","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":3.364389,"selectedQuestionIds":["117723"],"selectedPollIds":["63960"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2009-10-24","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":1.364389,"selectedQuestionIds":["117744"],"selectedPollIds":["63978"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2009-10-27","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":4.364389,"selectedQuestionIds":["117389"],"selectedPollIds":["63755"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2009-10-31","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-0.635611,"selectedQuestionIds":["117444"],"selectedPollIds":["63791"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"370","pollster":"Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs","date":"2009-10-23","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-0.635611,"selectedQuestionIds":["117643"],"selectedPollIds":["63899"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2009-10-29","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":4.364389,"selectedQuestionIds":["117645"],"selectedPollIds":["63901"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1313","race":"2008_Gov-G_DE","series":"governor","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"DE","democrat":"Jack Markell","republican":"William S. Lee","pollDem":62.0,"pollRep":27.0,"pollMargin":35.0,"actualDem":67.524873,"actualRep":32.049777,"actualMargin":35.475096,"actualDRShare":99.57465,"signedError":-0.475096,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.475096,"individualPollMAE":0.475096,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-27","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":35.475096,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":35.0,"signedError":-0.475096,"selectedQuestionIds":["87488"],"selectedPollIds":["16608"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1314","race":"2008_Gov-G_IN","series":"governor","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Jill Long Thompson","republican":"Mitchell Daniels, Jr.","pollDem":35.25,"pollRep":57.5,"pollMargin":-22.25,"actualDem":40.035588,"actualRep":57.841289,"actualMargin":-17.805701,"actualDRShare":97.876876,"signedError":-4.444299,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.444299,"individualPollMAE":4.847149,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-10-23","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-17.805701,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"142","pollster":"Howey Politics/DePauw University","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":-31.0,"signedError":-13.194299,"selectedQuestionIds":["87500"],"selectedPollIds":["16689"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":-5.194299,"selectedQuestionIds":["87477"],"selectedPollIds":["16418"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-0.194299,"selectedQuestionIds":["87494"],"selectedPollIds":["16588"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":0.805701,"selectedQuestionIds":["87489"],"selectedPollIds":["16525"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1315","race":"2008_Gov-G_MO","series":"governor","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Jay Nixon","republican":"Kenny Hulshof","pollDem":55.95,"pollRep":38.7,"pollMargin":17.25,"actualDem":58.399606,"actualRep":39.487549,"actualMargin":18.912056,"actualDRShare":97.887155,"signedError":-1.662056,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.662056,"individualPollMAE":2.25,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-11-01","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":18.912056,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":19.5,"signedError":0.587944,"selectedQuestionIds":["87478"],"selectedPollIds":["16424"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-3.912056,"selectedQuestionIds":["87481"],"selectedPollIds":["16439"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1316","race":"2008_Gov-G_MT","series":"governor","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Brian Schweitzer","republican":"Roy Brown","pollDem":62.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":26.0,"actualDem":65.471079,"actualRep":32.516323,"actualMargin":32.954756,"actualDRShare":97.987402,"signedError":-6.954756,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.954756,"individualPollMAE":6.954756,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-11-01","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":32.954756,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":-6.954756,"selectedQuestionIds":["87479"],"selectedPollIds":["16416"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1317","race":"2008_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"John Lynch","republican":"Joe Kenney","pollDem":68.0,"pollRep":21.6,"pollMargin":46.4,"actualDem":70.180666,"actualRep":27.623706,"actualMargin":42.55696,"actualDRShare":97.804373,"signedError":3.84304,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.84304,"individualPollMAE":7.088608,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":42.55696,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":40.0,"signedError":-2.55696,"selectedQuestionIds":["87487"],"selectedPollIds":["16517"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":56.0,"signedError":13.44304,"selectedQuestionIds":["87503"],"selectedPollIds":["54117"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":52.0,"signedError":9.44304,"selectedQuestionIds":["87493"],"selectedPollIds":["16569"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":37.0,"signedError":-5.55696,"selectedQuestionIds":["87484"],"selectedPollIds":["16540"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":47.0,"signedError":4.44304,"selectedQuestionIds":["87667"],"selectedPollIds":["54158"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1319","race":"2008_Gov-G_UT","series":"governor","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Bob Springmeyer","republican":"Jon M. Huntsman, Jr.","pollDem":16.5,"pollRep":75.0,"pollMargin":-58.5,"actualDem":19.724809,"actualRep":77.634013,"actualMargin":-57.909204,"actualDRShare":97.358822,"signedError":-0.590796,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.590796,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-57.909204,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-61.0,"signedError":-3.090796,"selectedQuestionIds":["87681"],"selectedPollIds":["16524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":-56.0,"signedError":1.909204,"selectedQuestionIds":["87680"],"selectedPollIds":["16680"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"132","race":"2018_Gov-G_AK","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Mark Begich","republican":"Mike Dunleavy","pollDem":42.3,"pollRep":42.5,"pollMargin":-0.2,"actualDem":44.409714,"actualRep":51.435363,"actualMargin":-7.025649,"actualDRShare":95.845077,"signedError":6.825649,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.825649,"individualPollMAE":6.825649,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-7.025649,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"155","pollster":"Alaska Survey Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-0.2,"signedError":6.825649,"selectedQuestionIds":["91131"],"selectedPollIds":["56603"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1321","race":"2008_Gov-G_WA","series":"governor","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Christine Gregoire","republican":"Dino Rossi","pollDem":50.666667,"pollRep":47.333333,"pollMargin":3.333333,"actualDem":53.240475,"actualRep":46.759525,"actualMargin":6.480951,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-3.147617,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.147617,"individualPollMAE":3.147617,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":6.480951,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-4.480951,"selectedQuestionIds":["87504"],"selectedPollIds":["16726"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.480951,"selectedQuestionIds":["87480"],"selectedPollIds":["16437"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"364","pollster":"University of Washington Center for Survey Research","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-4.480951,"selectedQuestionIds":["87491"],"selectedPollIds":["16511"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1322","race":"2008_Gov-G_WV","series":"governor","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"Joe Manchin, III","republican":"Russ Weeks","pollDem":69.0,"pollRep":27.0,"pollMargin":42.0,"actualDem":69.80738,"actualRep":25.731551,"actualMargin":44.075829,"actualDRShare":95.538931,"signedError":-2.075829,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.075829,"individualPollMAE":2.075829,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-29","2008-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":44.075829,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":42.0,"signedError":-2.075829,"selectedQuestionIds":["87483"],"selectedPollIds":["16527"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1323","race":"2008_Gov-G_NC","series":"governor","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Bev Perdue","republican":"Pat McCrory","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":46.166667,"pollMargin":0.333333,"actualDem":50.274506,"actualRep":46.877387,"actualMargin":3.397119,"actualDRShare":97.151893,"signedError":-3.063786,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.063786,"individualPollMAE":3.063786,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2008-10-23","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":3.397119,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.397119,"selectedQuestionIds":["87505"],"selectedPollIds":["54118"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.397119,"selectedQuestionIds":["87506"],"selectedPollIds":["24097"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.397119,"selectedQuestionIds":["87476"],"selectedPollIds":["16423"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-7.397119,"selectedQuestionIds":["87502"],"selectedPollIds":["16704"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.397119,"selectedQuestionIds":["87482"],"selectedPollIds":["16435"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"334","pollster":"The Tyson Group","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.397119,"selectedQuestionIds":["87490"],"selectedPollIds":["16543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1324","race":"2007_Gov-G_KY","series":"governor","year":2007,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2007,"electionDate":"2007-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Steve Beshear","republican":"Ernest Lee Fletcher","pollDem":56.333333,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":19.333333,"actualDem":58.707223,"actualRep":41.292777,"actualMargin":17.414446,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.918888,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.918888,"individualPollMAE":3.528518,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2007-10-28","2007-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":17.414446,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"174","pollster":"Louisville Courier-Journal","date":"2007-10-28","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":5.585554,"selectedQuestionIds":["117692"],"selectedPollIds":["63939"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2007-11-01","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-2.414446,"selectedQuestionIds":["117381"],"selectedPollIds":["63754"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2007-11-03","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":2.585554,"selectedQuestionIds":["117437"],"selectedPollIds":["63784"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1327","race":"2006_Gov-G_AK","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Tony Knowles","republican":"Sarah Palin","pollDem":43.2,"pollRep":48.75,"pollMargin":-5.55,"actualDem":40.973024,"actualRep":48.329696,"actualMargin":-7.356672,"actualDRShare":89.30272,"signedError":1.806672,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.806672,"individualPollMAE":1.806672,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-11-02","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-7.356672,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"79","pollster":"Dittman Research","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":-6.1,"signedError":1.256672,"selectedQuestionIds":["88639"],"selectedPollIds":["55101"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.356672,"selectedQuestionIds":["88638"],"selectedPollIds":["55100"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1328","race":"2006_Gov-G_AL","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Lucy Baxley","republican":"Bob Riley","pollDem":40.5,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-15.5,"actualDem":41.572823,"actualRep":57.447731,"actualMargin":-15.874907,"actualDRShare":99.020554,"signedError":0.374907,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.374907,"individualPollMAE":0.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-30","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-15.874907,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":0.874907,"selectedQuestionIds":["88654"],"selectedPollIds":["55116"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-0.125093,"selectedQuestionIds":["88655"],"selectedPollIds":["55117"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1329","race":"2006_Gov-G_AR","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Mike Beebe","republican":"Asa Hutchinson","pollDem":51.075,"pollRep":42.05,"pollMargin":9.025,"actualDem":55.60554,"actualRep":40.667114,"actualMargin":14.938426,"actualDRShare":96.272655,"signedError":-5.913426,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.913426,"individualPollMAE":7.444213,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":14.938426,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"242","pollster":"Opinion Research Associates","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":3.061574,"selectedQuestionIds":["88676"],"selectedPollIds":["55138"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-2.938426,"selectedQuestionIds":["88678"],"selectedPollIds":["55140"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-5.938426,"selectedQuestionIds":["88679"],"selectedPollIds":["55141"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-2.9,"signedError":-17.838426,"selectedQuestionIds":["88677"],"selectedPollIds":["55139"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"133","race":"2018_Gov-G_AZ","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"David Garcia","republican":"Doug Ducey","pollDem":40.2,"pollRep":53.69,"pollMargin":-13.49,"actualDem":41.841603,"actualRep":56.002358,"actualMargin":-14.160756,"actualDRShare":97.843961,"signedError":0.670756,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.670756,"individualPollMAE":2.89,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-14.160756,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-3.839244,"selectedQuestionIds":["91153"],"selectedPollIds":["56615"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":-15.1,"signedError":-0.939244,"selectedQuestionIds":["91487"],"selectedPollIds":["56779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":1.160756,"selectedQuestionIds":["91550"],"selectedPollIds":["56810"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":-14.3,"signedError":-0.139244,"selectedQuestionIds":["91587"],"selectedPollIds":["56829"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"416","pollster":"HighGround Inc.","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":-19.5,"signedError":-5.339244,"selectedQuestionIds":["90926"],"selectedPollIds":["56522"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":0.160756,"selectedQuestionIds":["90960"],"selectedPollIds":["56539"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-0.839244,"selectedQuestionIds":["91529"],"selectedPollIds":["56801"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":7.160756,"selectedQuestionIds":["91122"],"selectedPollIds":["56600"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":6.160756,"selectedQuestionIds":["91273"],"selectedPollIds":["56673"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":3.160756,"selectedQuestionIds":["90882"],"selectedPollIds":["56497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1330","race":"2006_Gov-G_AZ","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Janet Napolitano","republican":"Len Munsil","pollDem":56.575,"pollRep":38.675,"pollMargin":17.9,"actualDem":62.584888,"actualRep":35.440275,"actualMargin":27.144613,"actualDRShare":98.025162,"signedError":-9.244613,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.244613,"individualPollMAE":9.672306,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":27.144613,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":0.855387,"selectedQuestionIds":["88698"],"selectedPollIds":["24325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-8.144613,"selectedQuestionIds":["88699"],"selectedPollIds":["24802"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-11.144613,"selectedQuestionIds":["88700"],"selectedPollIds":["24879"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":8.6,"signedError":-18.544613,"selectedQuestionIds":["88697"],"selectedPollIds":["55159"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1331","race":"2006_Gov-G_CA","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Phil Angelides","republican":"Arnold Schwarzenegger","pollDem":37.966667,"pollRep":51.433333,"pollMargin":-13.466667,"actualDem":38.90506,"actualRep":55.881145,"actualMargin":-16.976085,"actualDRShare":94.786205,"signedError":3.509418,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.509418,"individualPollMAE":3.850723,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-16.976085,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"75","pollster":"Datamar Analytics","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-1.023915,"selectedQuestionIds":["88742"],"selectedPollIds":["24233"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":0.976085,"selectedQuestionIds":["88739"],"selectedPollIds":["24258"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":3.976085,"selectedQuestionIds":["88740"],"selectedPollIds":["55202"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":1.976085,"selectedQuestionIds":["88743"],"selectedPollIds":["24808"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":6.976085,"selectedQuestionIds":["88741"],"selectedPollIds":["55203"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-8.8,"signedError":8.176085,"selectedQuestionIds":["88738"],"selectedPollIds":["55200"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1332","race":"2006_Gov-G_CO","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Bill Ritter, Jr.","republican":"Bob Beauprez","pollDem":53.68,"pollRep":38.52,"pollMargin":15.16,"actualDem":56.985119,"actualRep":40.165259,"actualMargin":16.819859,"actualDRShare":97.150378,"signedError":-1.659859,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.659859,"individualPollMAE":7.076028,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":16.819859,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-4.819859,"selectedQuestionIds":["88761"],"selectedPollIds":["55223"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":5.180141,"selectedQuestionIds":["88763"],"selectedPollIds":["55225"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":5.180141,"selectedQuestionIds":["88764"],"selectedPollIds":["55226"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":3.180141,"selectedQuestionIds":["88765"],"selectedPollIds":["55227"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-0.2,"signedError":-17.019859,"selectedQuestionIds":["88762"],"selectedPollIds":["55224"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1334","race":"2006_Gov-G_FL","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Jim Davis","republican":"Charlie Crist","pollDem":42.333333,"pollRep":49.833333,"pollMargin":-7.5,"actualDem":45.105968,"actualRep":52.17859,"actualMargin":-7.072622,"actualDRShare":97.284559,"signedError":-0.427378,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.427378,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-7.072622,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":0.072622,"selectedQuestionIds":["88826"],"selectedPollIds":["24327"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"302","pollster":"SEA Polling & Strategic Design","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":1.072622,"selectedQuestionIds":["88822"],"selectedPollIds":["24705"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-05","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-0.927378,"selectedQuestionIds":["88831"],"selectedPollIds":["55291"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":5.072622,"selectedQuestionIds":["88830"],"selectedPollIds":["24815"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-4.927378,"selectedQuestionIds":["88827"],"selectedPollIds":["55287"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-2.927378,"selectedQuestionIds":["88828"],"selectedPollIds":["24995"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1335","race":"2006_Gov-G_GA","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Mark Taylor","republican":"Sonny Perdue","pollDem":37.575,"pollRep":52.575,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":38.217639,"actualRep":57.946126,"actualMargin":-19.728487,"actualDRShare":96.163765,"signedError":4.728487,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.728487,"individualPollMAE":4.728487,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-19.728487,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":5.728487,"selectedQuestionIds":["138072"],"selectedPollIds":["73570"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":2.728487,"selectedQuestionIds":["88853"],"selectedPollIds":["55313"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":2.728487,"selectedQuestionIds":["88855"],"selectedPollIds":["55315"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":7.728487,"selectedQuestionIds":["88852"],"selectedPollIds":["55312"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1337","race":"2006_Gov-G_IA","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Chet Culver","republican":"Jim Nussle","pollDem":49.4,"pollRep":43.1,"pollMargin":6.3,"actualDem":54.024999,"actualRep":44.379091,"actualMargin":9.645907,"actualDRShare":98.40409,"signedError":-3.345907,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.345907,"individualPollMAE":3.345907,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":9.645907,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-2.645907,"selectedQuestionIds":["138069","88872"],"selectedPollIds":["55332","73567"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-0.645907,"selectedQuestionIds":["88875"],"selectedPollIds":["55335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-1.645907,"selectedQuestionIds":["88874"],"selectedPollIds":["55334"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":1.2,"signedError":-8.445907,"selectedQuestionIds":["88871"],"selectedPollIds":["55331"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1338","race":"2006_Gov-G_ID","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Jerry Brady","republican":"C.L. 'Butch' Otter","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":44.10623,"actualRep":52.666403,"actualMargin":-8.560173,"actualDRShare":96.772634,"signedError":10.560173,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.560173,"individualPollMAE":10.560173,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-8.560173,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"128","pollster":"Greg Smith & Associates","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":13.560173,"selectedQuestionIds":["88878"],"selectedPollIds":["55338"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":7.560173,"selectedQuestionIds":["88877"],"selectedPollIds":["55337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1339","race":"2006_Gov-G_IL","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Rod Blagojevich","republican":"Judy Baar Topinka","pollDem":46.266667,"pollRep":35.833333,"pollMargin":10.433333,"actualDem":49.795469,"actualRep":39.260935,"actualMargin":10.534534,"actualDRShare":89.056403,"signedError":-0.101201,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.101201,"individualPollMAE":5.411511,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":10.534534,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":4.465466,"selectedQuestionIds":["88902"],"selectedPollIds":["55362"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.534534,"selectedQuestionIds":["88903"],"selectedPollIds":["55363"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-3.534534,"selectedQuestionIds":["88906"],"selectedPollIds":["55366"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.534534,"selectedQuestionIds":["88904"],"selectedPollIds":["55364"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":11.465466,"selectedQuestionIds":["88905"],"selectedPollIds":["55365"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":6.6,"signedError":-3.934534,"selectedQuestionIds":["88901"],"selectedPollIds":["55361"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1340","race":"2006_Gov-G_KS","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Kathleen Sebelius","republican":"Jim Barnett","pollDem":57.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":17.0,"actualDem":57.901965,"actualRep":40.436154,"actualMargin":17.465811,"actualDRShare":98.338119,"signedError":-0.465811,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.465811,"individualPollMAE":0.465811,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-03","2006-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":17.465811,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":-0.465811,"selectedQuestionIds":["88918"],"selectedPollIds":["55378"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1341","race":"2006_Gov-G_MA","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Deval Patrick","republican":"Kerry Healey","pollDem":57.025,"pollRep":31.925,"pollMargin":25.1,"actualDem":55.635448,"actualRep":35.334238,"actualMargin":20.30121,"actualDRShare":90.969687,"signedError":4.79879,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.79879,"individualPollMAE":4.79879,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":20.30121,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":0.69879,"selectedQuestionIds":["88951"],"selectedPollIds":["55411"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":4.69879,"selectedQuestionIds":["88949"],"selectedPollIds":["24872"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":8.69879,"selectedQuestionIds":["88952"],"selectedPollIds":["24884"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":25.4,"signedError":5.09879,"selectedQuestionIds":["88950"],"selectedPollIds":["55410"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1342","race":"2006_Gov-G_MD","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Martin O'Malley","republican":"Robert Ehrlich Jr.","pollDem":48.922222,"pollRep":45.877778,"pollMargin":3.044444,"actualDem":52.690856,"actualRep":46.158733,"actualMargin":6.532123,"actualDRShare":98.849588,"signedError":-3.487679,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.487679,"individualPollMAE":4.258318,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":6.532123,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":3.467877,"selectedQuestionIds":["88976"],"selectedPollIds":["24875"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.532123,"selectedQuestionIds":["88980"],"selectedPollIds":["55439"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-6.532123,"selectedQuestionIds":["88985"],"selectedPollIds":["24332"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"256","pollster":"Potomac Incorporated","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-5.532123,"selectedQuestionIds":["88981"],"selectedPollIds":["24402"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-7.532123,"selectedQuestionIds":["88978"],"selectedPollIds":["55438"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-5.532123,"selectedQuestionIds":["88982"],"selectedPollIds":["24489"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-3.532123,"selectedQuestionIds":["88986"],"selectedPollIds":["24818"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-4.532123,"selectedQuestionIds":["88984"],"selectedPollIds":["24885"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":5.4,"signedError":-1.132123,"selectedQuestionIds":["88977"],"selectedPollIds":["55437"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1343","race":"2006_Gov-G_ME","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"John Baldacci","republican":"Chandler E. Woodcock","pollDem":40.5,"pollRep":30.5,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":38.108611,"actualRep":30.211576,"actualMargin":7.897035,"actualDRShare":68.320187,"signedError":2.102965,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.102965,"individualPollMAE":4.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-30","2006-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":7.897035,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":6.102965,"selectedQuestionIds":["89002"],"selectedPollIds":["55459"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-1.897035,"selectedQuestionIds":["89003"],"selectedPollIds":["55460"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1344","race":"2006_Gov-G_MI","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Jennifer Granholm","republican":"Dick DeVos","pollDem":52.6,"pollRep":42.116667,"pollMargin":10.483333,"actualDem":56.363292,"actualRep":42.30407,"actualMargin":14.059221,"actualDRShare":98.667362,"signedError":-3.575888,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.575888,"individualPollMAE":3.575888,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":14.059221,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-5.059221,"selectedQuestionIds":["89057"],"selectedPollIds":["24241"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.059221,"selectedQuestionIds":["89058"],"selectedPollIds":["24334"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-1.059221,"selectedQuestionIds":["89059"],"selectedPollIds":["24707"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-8.059221,"selectedQuestionIds":["89062"],"selectedPollIds":["24822"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-2.059221,"selectedQuestionIds":["89060"],"selectedPollIds":["24886"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":8.9,"signedError":-5.159221,"selectedQuestionIds":["89054"],"selectedPollIds":["55509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1345","race":"2006_Gov-G_MN","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Mike Hatch","republican":"Tim Pawlenty","pollDem":45.728571,"pollRep":43.1,"pollMargin":2.628571,"actualDem":45.732583,"actualRep":46.690759,"actualMargin":-0.958175,"actualDRShare":92.423342,"signedError":3.586747,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.586747,"individualPollMAE":3.586747,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-0.958175,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.958175,"selectedQuestionIds":["89081"],"selectedPollIds":["24335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"315","pollster":"Minneapolis Star Tribune","date":"2006-11-05","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":3.958175,"selectedQuestionIds":["89086"],"selectedPollIds":["24718"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.958175,"selectedQuestionIds":["89082"],"selectedPollIds":["24512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.958175,"selectedQuestionIds":["89085"],"selectedPollIds":["24828"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"143","pollster":"University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":6.958175,"selectedQuestionIds":["89080"],"selectedPollIds":["55534"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.958175,"selectedQuestionIds":["89083"],"selectedPollIds":["24887"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":1.4,"signedError":2.358175,"selectedQuestionIds":["89079"],"selectedPollIds":["25008"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1347","race":"2006_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"John Lynch","republican":"Jim Coburn","pollDem":74.0,"pollRep":18.0,"pollMargin":56.0,"actualDem":74.015875,"actualRep":25.827755,"actualMargin":48.188119,"actualDRShare":99.84363,"signedError":7.811881,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.811881,"individualPollMAE":7.811881,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-04","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":48.188119,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":56.0,"signedError":7.811881,"selectedQuestionIds":["89098"],"selectedPollIds":["55551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1349","race":"2006_Gov-G_NV","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Dina Titus","republican":"Jim Gibbons","pollDem":44.375,"pollRep":47.4,"pollMargin":-3.025,"actualDem":43.920035,"actualRep":47.925649,"actualMargin":-4.005614,"actualDRShare":91.845685,"signedError":0.980614,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.980614,"individualPollMAE":2.477807,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-4.005614,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":0.005614,"selectedQuestionIds":["89115"],"selectedPollIds":["24349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":2.005614,"selectedQuestionIds":["89116"],"selectedPollIds":["24577"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-2.994386,"selectedQuestionIds":["89117"],"selectedPollIds":["24890"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":0.9,"signedError":4.905614,"selectedQuestionIds":["89114"],"selectedPollIds":["55566"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"135","race":"2018_Gov-G_CA","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Gavin Newsom","republican":"John Cox","pollDem":53.533333,"pollRep":38.383333,"pollMargin":15.15,"actualDem":61.948527,"actualRep":38.051473,"actualMargin":23.897054,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-8.747054,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.747054,"individualPollMAE":8.747054,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":23.897054,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-11.897054,"selectedQuestionIds":["91519"],"selectedPollIds":["56793"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-3.897054,"selectedQuestionIds":["90985"],"selectedPollIds":["56549"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"259","pollster":"Probolsky Research","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":10.5,"signedError":-13.397054,"selectedQuestionIds":["91392"],"selectedPollIds":["56731"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-3.897054,"selectedQuestionIds":["91407"],"selectedPollIds":["56737"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-8.897054,"selectedQuestionIds":["91556"],"selectedPollIds":["56813"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"758","pollster":"Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":13.4,"signedError":-10.497054,"selectedQuestionIds":["91145"],"selectedPollIds":["56611"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1351","race":"2006_Gov-G_OH","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Ted Strickland","republican":"J. Kenneth Blackwell","pollDem":57.977778,"pollRep":36.922222,"pollMargin":21.055556,"actualDem":60.540606,"actualRep":36.648207,"actualMargin":23.892399,"actualDRShare":97.188814,"signedError":-2.836843,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.836843,"individualPollMAE":6.217999,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":23.892399,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":-0.892399,"selectedQuestionIds":["89180"],"selectedPollIds":["24398"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":36.0,"signedError":12.107601,"selectedQuestionIds":["89181"],"selectedPollIds":["24228"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-4.892399,"selectedQuestionIds":["89182"],"selectedPollIds":["24354"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"241","pollster":"Opinion Consultants","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-7.892399,"selectedQuestionIds":["89179"],"selectedPollIds":["24395"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-1.892399,"selectedQuestionIds":["89176"],"selectedPollIds":["24582"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":-6.892399,"selectedQuestionIds":["89185"],"selectedPollIds":["24838"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-1.892399,"selectedQuestionIds":["89184"],"selectedPollIds":["24866"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":27.0,"signedError":3.107601,"selectedQuestionIds":["89183"],"selectedPollIds":["24891"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":7.5,"signedError":-16.392399,"selectedQuestionIds":["89178"],"selectedPollIds":["55628"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1352","race":"2006_Gov-G_OK","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Brad Henry","republican":"Ernest Istook","pollDem":65.0,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":36.0,"actualDem":66.504077,"actualRep":33.495923,"actualMargin":33.008154,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":2.991846,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.991846,"individualPollMAE":2.991846,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-02","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":33.008154,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":36.0,"signedError":2.991846,"selectedQuestionIds":["89193"],"selectedPollIds":["55643"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1353","race":"2006_Gov-G_PA","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Ed Rendell","republican":"Lynn Swann","pollDem":57.65,"pollRep":36.25,"pollMargin":21.4,"actualDem":60.364698,"actualRep":39.635302,"actualMargin":20.729395,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.670605,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.670605,"individualPollMAE":3.917651,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":20.729395,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":4.270605,"selectedQuestionIds":["89261"],"selectedPollIds":["24264"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-2.729395,"selectedQuestionIds":["89265"],"selectedPollIds":["24357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":4.270605,"selectedQuestionIds":["89264"],"selectedPollIds":["24385"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":2.270605,"selectedQuestionIds":["89260"],"selectedPollIds":["24449"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-2.729395,"selectedQuestionIds":["89262"],"selectedPollIds":["24595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"377","pollster":"West Chester University","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":4.270605,"selectedQuestionIds":["89258"],"selectedPollIds":["24878"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":3.270605,"selectedQuestionIds":["89266"],"selectedPollIds":["24892"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":13.2,"signedError":-7.529395,"selectedQuestionIds":["89259"],"selectedPollIds":["55709"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1354","race":"2006_Gov-G_RI","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Charlie Fogarty","republican":"Donald Carcieri","pollDem":39.333333,"pollRep":49.666667,"pollMargin":-10.333333,"actualDem":48.991363,"actualRep":51.008637,"actualMargin":-2.017275,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-8.316059,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.316059,"individualPollMAE":8.316059,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-2.017275,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-6.982725,"selectedQuestionIds":["138070"],"selectedPollIds":["73568"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-5.982725,"selectedQuestionIds":["89285"],"selectedPollIds":["24360"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"285","pollster":"Quest Research Group","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-11.982725,"selectedQuestionIds":["89284"],"selectedPollIds":["24695"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1355","race":"2006_Gov-G_SC","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Tommy Moore","republican":"Mark Sanford","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":56.5,"pollMargin":-14.5,"actualDem":44.788984,"actualRep":55.118338,"actualMargin":-10.329354,"actualDRShare":99.907322,"signedError":-4.170646,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.170646,"individualPollMAE":4.170646,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-31","2006-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-10.329354,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-6.670646,"selectedQuestionIds":["89297"],"selectedPollIds":["55745"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-1.670646,"selectedQuestionIds":["89296"],"selectedPollIds":["55744"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1356","race":"2006_Gov-G_SD","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Jack Billion","republican":"M. Michael Rounds","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-22.0,"actualDem":36.132074,"actualRep":61.694505,"actualMargin":-25.562431,"actualDRShare":97.826579,"signedError":3.562431,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.562431,"individualPollMAE":3.562431,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-25.562431,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":3.562431,"selectedQuestionIds":["138099"],"selectedPollIds":["64710"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1357","race":"2006_Gov-G_TN","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Phil Bredesen","republican":"Jim Bryson","pollDem":61.25,"pollRep":32.0,"pollMargin":29.25,"actualDem":68.598152,"actualRep":29.740909,"actualMargin":38.857243,"actualDRShare":98.33906,"signedError":-9.607243,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.607243,"individualPollMAE":9.607243,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-28","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":38.857243,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-16.857243,"selectedQuestionIds":["89308"],"selectedPollIds":["24399"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":35.0,"signedError":-3.857243,"selectedQuestionIds":["89310"],"selectedPollIds":["24363"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":-10.857243,"selectedQuestionIds":["89311"],"selectedPollIds":["24844"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":32.0,"signedError":-6.857243,"selectedQuestionIds":["89309"],"selectedPollIds":["24893"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1358","race":"2006_Gov-G_TX","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Chris Bell","republican":"Rick Perry","pollDem":25.166667,"pollRep":36.9,"pollMargin":-11.733333,"actualDem":29.790718,"actualRep":39.031537,"actualMargin":-9.240819,"actualDRShare":68.822255,"signedError":-2.492515,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.492515,"individualPollMAE":3.186394,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-9.240819,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-1.759181,"selectedQuestionIds":["89329"],"selectedPollIds":["55777"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-6.759181,"selectedQuestionIds":["89332"],"selectedPollIds":["55780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-8.2,"signedError":1.040819,"selectedQuestionIds":["89331"],"selectedPollIds":["55779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"136","race":"2018_Gov-G_CO","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Jared Polis","republican":"Walker Stapleton","pollDem":47.5,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":6.5,"actualDem":53.419995,"actualRep":42.802949,"actualMargin":10.617046,"actualDRShare":96.222944,"signedError":-4.117046,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.117046,"individualPollMAE":4.117046,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":10.617046,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"455","pollster":"Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.617046,"selectedQuestionIds":["91203"],"selectedPollIds":["56636"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"179","pollster":"Magellan Strategies","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-5.617046,"selectedQuestionIds":["91192"],"selectedPollIds":["56630"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1360","race":"2006_Gov-G_WI","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Jim Doyle","republican":"Mark A. Green","pollDem":49.85,"pollRep":45.1,"pollMargin":4.75,"actualDem":52.695332,"actualRep":45.308183,"actualMargin":7.387149,"actualDRShare":98.003516,"signedError":-2.637149,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.637149,"individualPollMAE":5.25,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":7.387149,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":2.612851,"selectedQuestionIds":["89374"],"selectedPollIds":["55822"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-0.5,"signedError":-7.887149,"selectedQuestionIds":["89371"],"selectedPollIds":["25065"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1362","race":"2006_Gov-G_OR","series":"governor","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Ted Kulongoski","republican":"Ron Saxton","pollDem":49.55,"pollRep":43.9,"pollMargin":5.65,"actualDem":50.728429,"actualRep":42.751627,"actualMargin":7.976803,"actualDRShare":93.480056,"signedError":-2.326803,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.326803,"individualPollMAE":2.338401,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":7.976803,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.976803,"selectedQuestionIds":["89206"],"selectedPollIds":["55656"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.976803,"selectedQuestionIds":["89205"],"selectedPollIds":["55655"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.023197,"selectedQuestionIds":["89207"],"selectedPollIds":["55657"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":0.6,"signedError":-7.376803,"selectedQuestionIds":["89204"],"selectedPollIds":["55654"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1363","race":"2005_Gov-G_NJ","series":"governor","year":2005,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2005,"electionDate":"2005-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Jon Stevens Corzine","republican":"Douglas R. Forrester","pollDem":46.625,"pollRep":40.5,"pollMargin":6.125,"actualDem":53.471531,"actualRep":43.023075,"actualMargin":10.448457,"actualDRShare":96.494606,"signedError":-4.323457,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.323457,"individualPollMAE":4.323457,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2005-10-26","2005-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":10.448457,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2005-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-8.448457,"selectedQuestionIds":["117677"],"selectedPollIds":["63928"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2005-11-06","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-4.448457,"selectedQuestionIds":["117696"],"selectedPollIds":["63943"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2005-11-03","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.448457,"selectedQuestionIds":["117711"],"selectedPollIds":["63956"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2005-11-02","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.448457,"selectedQuestionIds":["117728"],"selectedPollIds":["63965"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2005-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-4.448457,"selectedQuestionIds":["117748"],"selectedPollIds":["63982"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2005-11-06","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-5.448457,"selectedQuestionIds":["138300"],"selectedPollIds":["73732"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2005-11-05","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-4.448457,"selectedQuestionIds":["117433"],"selectedPollIds":["63780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2005-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-3.448457,"selectedQuestionIds":["117650"],"selectedPollIds":["63906"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1364","race":"2005_Gov-G_VA","series":"governor","year":2005,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2005,"electionDate":"2005-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Tim Kaine","republican":"Jerry W. Kilgore","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":51.716573,"actualRep":45.98937,"actualMargin":5.727203,"actualDRShare":97.705943,"signedError":-1.727203,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.727203,"individualPollMAE":2.636322,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2005-10-25","2005-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":5.727203,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2005-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.727203,"selectedQuestionIds":["117654"],"selectedPollIds":["63910"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2005-11-03","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.727203,"selectedQuestionIds":["117705"],"selectedPollIds":["63951"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2005-10-27","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":2.272797,"selectedQuestionIds":["117743"],"selectedPollIds":["63977"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2005-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.727203,"selectedQuestionIds":["138303"],"selectedPollIds":["73734"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2005-11-06","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.727203,"selectedQuestionIds":["138299"],"selectedPollIds":["73731"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1366","race":"2004_Gov-G_IN","series":"governor","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Joseph Kernan","republican":"Mitchell Daniels, Jr.","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":45.493196,"actualRep":53.212704,"actualMargin":-7.719508,"actualDRShare":98.705901,"signedError":0.719508,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.719508,"individualPollMAE":1.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-7.719508,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":1.719508,"selectedQuestionIds":["88549"],"selectedPollIds":["4422"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-0.280492,"selectedQuestionIds":["88550"],"selectedPollIds":["4392"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1367","race":"2004_Gov-G_MO","series":"governor","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Claire McCaskill","republican":"Matt Blunt","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-0.5,"actualDem":47.854187,"actualRep":50.831722,"actualMargin":-2.977535,"actualDRShare":98.685909,"signedError":2.477535,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.477535,"individualPollMAE":2.477535,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-24","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-2.977535,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.977535,"selectedQuestionIds":["88560"],"selectedPollIds":["4529"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":2.977535,"selectedQuestionIds":["88562"],"selectedPollIds":["4330"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1368","race":"2004_Gov-G_MT","series":"governor","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Brian Schweitzer","republican":"Bob Brown","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":50.435508,"actualRep":46.01924,"actualMargin":4.416267,"actualDRShare":96.454748,"signedError":0.583733,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.583733,"individualPollMAE":0.583733,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":4.416267,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.583733,"selectedQuestionIds":["88568"],"selectedPollIds":["4596"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1369","race":"2004_Gov-G_NC","series":"governor","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Mike Easley","republican":"Patrick J. Ballantine","pollDem":52.666667,"pollRep":37.666667,"pollMargin":15.0,"actualDem":55.615931,"actualRep":42.877969,"actualMargin":12.737962,"actualDRShare":98.4939,"signedError":2.262038,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.262038,"individualPollMAE":2.262038,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":12.737962,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":3.262038,"selectedQuestionIds":["88582"],"selectedPollIds":["4456"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":1.262038,"selectedQuestionIds":["88583"],"selectedPollIds":["4326"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"334","pollster":"The Tyson Group","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":2.262038,"selectedQuestionIds":["88579"],"selectedPollIds":["4590"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1371","race":"2004_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"John Lynch","republican":"Craig Benson","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":51.017811,"actualRep":48.871248,"actualMargin":2.146562,"actualDRShare":99.889059,"signedError":-2.146562,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.146562,"individualPollMAE":2.146562,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-27","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":2.146562,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"107","pollster":"Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.146562,"selectedQuestionIds":["88591"],"selectedPollIds":["4440"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-3.146562,"selectedQuestionIds":["88597"],"selectedPollIds":["4325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1372","race":"2004_Gov-G_UT","series":"governor","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Scott M. Matheson, Jr.","republican":"Jon M. Huntsman, Jr.","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":41.345167,"actualRep":57.740554,"actualMargin":-16.395387,"actualDRShare":99.085721,"signedError":1.395387,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.395387,"individualPollMAE":1.395387,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-23","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-16.395387,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":0.395387,"selectedQuestionIds":["88606"],"selectedPollIds":["55068"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"368","pollster":"Valley Research","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":2.395387,"selectedQuestionIds":["120075"],"selectedPollIds":["25357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1373","race":"2004_Gov-G_WA","series":"governor","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Christine Gregoire","republican":"Dino Rossi","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-0.5,"actualDem":48.873048,"actualRep":48.868458,"actualMargin":0.004591,"actualDRShare":97.741506,"signedError":-0.504591,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.504591,"individualPollMAE":5.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":0.004591,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.995409,"selectedQuestionIds":["88622"],"selectedPollIds":["4447"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-6.004591,"selectedQuestionIds":["88624"],"selectedPollIds":["4328"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1376","race":"2003_Gov-G_KY","series":"governor","year":2003,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2003,"electionDate":"2003-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Albert Ben Chandler","republican":"Ernest Lee Fletcher","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":44.963971,"actualRep":55.036029,"actualMargin":-10.072057,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.072057,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.072057,"individualPollMAE":1.072057,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2003-10-22","2003-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-10.072057,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2003-10-22","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":1.072057,"selectedQuestionIds":["117686"],"selectedPollIds":["63933"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"174","pollster":"Louisville Courier-Journal","date":"2003-10-22","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":0.072057,"selectedQuestionIds":["117691"],"selectedPollIds":["63938"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2003-10-31","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":2.072057,"selectedQuestionIds":["117427"],"selectedPollIds":["63774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1378","race":"2003_Gov-R_LA","series":"governor","year":2003,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2003,"electionDate":"2003-11-15","raceKind":"R","location":"LA","democrat":"Kathleen Babineaux Blanco","republican":"Piyush Amrit Jindal","pollDem":41.5,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-4.5,"actualDem":51.948869,"actualRep":48.051131,"actualMargin":3.897739,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-8.397739,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.397739,"individualPollMAE":8.397739,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2003-11-01","2003-11-11"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":3.897739,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"185","pollster":"Market Research Insight","date":"2003-11-11","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-7.897739,"selectedQuestionIds":["138363"],"selectedPollIds":["73766"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2003-11-05","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-8.897739,"selectedQuestionIds":["117702"],"selectedPollIds":["63948"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"239","pollster":"OnMessage Inc.","date":"2003-11-11","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-10.897739,"selectedQuestionIds":["117656"],"selectedPollIds":["63912"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"309","pollster":"Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center","date":"2003-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-5.897739,"selectedQuestionIds":["117750"],"selectedPollIds":["63984"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1379","race":"2003_Gov-G_MS","series":"governor","year":2003,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2003,"electionDate":"2003-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MS","democrat":"Ronnie Musgrove","republican":"Haley Barbour","pollDem":43.333333,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-2.666667,"actualDem":45.812516,"actualRep":52.589249,"actualMargin":-6.776733,"actualDRShare":98.401765,"signedError":4.110067,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.110067,"individualPollMAE":4.110067,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2003-10-22","2003-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-6.776733,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2003-10-22","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":1.776733,"selectedQuestionIds":["117687"],"selectedPollIds":["63934"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2003-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":2.776733,"selectedQuestionIds":["117703"],"selectedPollIds":["63949"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"649","pollster":"Southern Research Group","date":"2003-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":7.776733,"selectedQuestionIds":["138388"],"selectedPollIds":["73788"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"138","race":"2018_Gov-G_FL","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Andrew Gillum","republican":"Ron DeSantis","pollDem":47.757222,"pollRep":45.925,"pollMargin":1.832222,"actualDem":49.190353,"actualRep":49.585253,"actualMargin":-0.3949,"actualDRShare":98.775607,"signedError":2.227122,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.227122,"individualPollMAE":3.407167,"n":18,"pollsters":18,"sourceQuestions":22,"selectedQuestions":18,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-0.3949,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-0.6,"signedError":-0.2051,"selectedQuestionIds":["91143"],"selectedPollIds":["56610"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":5.3,"signedError":5.6949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91488"],"selectedPollIds":["56780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.3949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91439"],"selectedPollIds":["56756"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":2.4,"signedError":2.7949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91588"],"selectedPollIds":["56830"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"617","pollster":"MWR Strategies","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.3949,"selectedQuestionIds":["129670"],"selectedPollIds":["69584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.3949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91468"],"selectedPollIds":["56769"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":7.3949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91470"],"selectedPollIds":["56770"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.3949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91530"],"selectedPollIds":["56802"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.3949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91213"],"selectedPollIds":["56640"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"314","pollster":"St. Pete Polls","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":4.1,"signedError":4.4949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91471"],"selectedPollIds":["56771"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.3949,"selectedQuestionIds":["90990"],"selectedPollIds":["56554"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-0.6051,"selectedQuestionIds":["91338"],"selectedPollIds":["56706"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":4.38,"signedError":4.7749,"selectedQuestionIds":["90793"],"selectedPollIds":["56450"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"677","pollster":"The Political Matrix/The Listener Group","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-7.2,"signedError":-6.8051,"selectedQuestionIds":["142775"],"selectedPollIds":["74940"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":-3.4,"signedError":-3.0051,"selectedQuestionIds":["91582"],"selectedPollIds":["56825"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"360","pollster":"University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":6.3949,"selectedQuestionIds":["90955"],"selectedPollIds":["56537"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":6.3949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91274"],"selectedPollIds":["56674"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.3949,"selectedQuestionIds":["90883"],"selectedPollIds":["56498"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1380","race":"2003_Gov-GS_CA","series":"governor","year":2003,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2003,"electionDate":"2003-10-07","raceKind":"GS","location":"CA","democrat":"Cruz M. Bustamante","republican":"Arnold Schwarzenegger","pollDem":29.25,"pollRep":40.375,"pollMargin":-11.125,"actualDem":31.472635,"actualRep":48.583106,"actualMargin":-17.110471,"actualDRShare":80.055741,"signedError":5.985471,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.985471,"individualPollMAE":6.457853,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2003-09-24","2003-10-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-17.110471,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"19","pollster":"BIGresearch","date":"2003-10-04","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-1.889529,"selectedQuestionIds":["117658"],"selectedPollIds":["63914"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"23","pollster":"Baselice & Associates","date":"2003-09-24","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":13.110471,"selectedQuestionIds":["117657"],"selectedPollIds":["63913"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"87","pollster":"Elway Research","date":"2003-10-03","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":9.110471,"selectedQuestionIds":["117673"],"selectedPollIds":["63924"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2003-09-28","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":7.110471,"selectedQuestionIds":["117680"],"selectedPollIds":["5862"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2003-09-26","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":2.110471,"selectedQuestionIds":["117681"],"selectedPollIds":["12589"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"164","pollster":"Knowledge Networks","date":"2003-09-30","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":4.110471,"selectedQuestionIds":["117689"],"selectedPollIds":["63936"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2003-09-27","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":9.110471,"selectedQuestionIds":["117690"],"selectedPollIds":["63937"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2003-10-05","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":5.110471,"selectedQuestionIds":["117424"],"selectedPollIds":["63771"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1381","race":"2002_Gov-G_AL","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Don Siegelman","republican":"Bob Riley","pollDem":39.5,"pollRep":45.5,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":48.945067,"actualRep":49.173295,"actualMargin":-0.228228,"actualDRShare":98.118361,"signedError":-5.771772,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.771772,"individualPollMAE":5.771772,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-23","2002-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-0.228228,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"344","pollster":"University of Alabama at Birmingham","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-7.771772,"selectedQuestionIds":["88079"],"selectedPollIds":["54543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"361","pollster":"University of South Alabama Polling Group","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-3.771772,"selectedQuestionIds":["88078"],"selectedPollIds":["73448"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1383","race":"2002_Gov-G_AZ","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Janet Napolitano","republican":"Matt Salmon","pollDem":42.333333,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":3.333333,"actualDem":46.185378,"actualRep":45.221436,"actualMargin":0.963942,"actualDRShare":91.406814,"signedError":2.369391,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.369391,"individualPollMAE":2.369391,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2002-10-26","2002-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":0.963942,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"11","pollster":"Analytical Group","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.036058,"selectedQuestionIds":["88106"],"selectedPollIds":["54570"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"27","pollster":"Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.036058,"selectedQuestionIds":["138441"],"selectedPollIds":["54571"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.036058,"selectedQuestionIds":["88108"],"selectedPollIds":["54572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1384","race":"2002_Gov-G_AR","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Jimmie Lou Fisher","republican":"Mike Huckabee","pollDem":41.333333,"pollRep":51.333333,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":46.946987,"actualRep":53.007834,"actualMargin":-6.060847,"actualDRShare":99.954822,"signedError":-3.939153,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.939153,"individualPollMAE":3.979718,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2002-10-25","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-6.060847,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-8.939153,"selectedQuestionIds":["88087"],"selectedPollIds":["25469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"242","pollster":"Opinion Research Associates","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":0.060847,"selectedQuestionIds":["88086"],"selectedPollIds":["25559"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-2.939153,"selectedQuestionIds":["88088"],"selectedPollIds":["25660"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1385","race":"2002_Gov-G_CA","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Gray Davis","republican":"Bill Simon","pollDem":43.25,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":6.25,"actualDem":47.26248,"actualRep":42.397929,"actualMargin":4.864552,"actualDRShare":89.660409,"signedError":1.385448,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.385448,"individualPollMAE":2.317724,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2002-10-24","2002-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":4.864552,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.135448,"selectedQuestionIds":["88131"],"selectedPollIds":["54595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2002-10-24","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":4.135448,"selectedQuestionIds":["88129"],"selectedPollIds":["54593"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.135448,"selectedQuestionIds":["88133"],"selectedPollIds":["54597"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.864552,"selectedQuestionIds":["88132"],"selectedPollIds":["54596"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1386","race":"2002_Gov-G_CO","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Rollie Heath","republican":"William F. Owens","pollDem":28.5,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-30.5,"actualDem":33.652296,"actualRep":62.620823,"actualMargin":-28.968528,"actualDRShare":96.273119,"signedError":-1.531472,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.531472,"individualPollMAE":4.015736,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2002-10-30","2002-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-28.968528,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"51","pollster":"Ciruli Associates","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":-36.0,"signedError":-7.031472,"selectedQuestionIds":["88147"],"selectedPollIds":["25426"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"329","pollster":"Drake Research & Strategy, Inc.","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":4.968528,"selectedQuestionIds":["88146"],"selectedPollIds":["25623"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":-1.031472,"selectedQuestionIds":["88148"],"selectedPollIds":["25470"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":-3.031472,"selectedQuestionIds":["88149"],"selectedPollIds":["25666"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1388","race":"2002_Gov-G_FL","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Bill McBride","republican":"Jeb Bush","pollDem":43.125,"pollRep":50.125,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":43.160318,"actualRep":56.010188,"actualMargin":-12.849869,"actualDRShare":99.170506,"signedError":5.849869,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.849869,"individualPollMAE":6.637402,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2002-10-24","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-12.849869,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"2002-10-24","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":6.849869,"selectedQuestionIds":["88181"],"selectedPollIds":["54645"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":9.849869,"selectedQuestionIds":["88183"],"selectedPollIds":["54647"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"194","pollster":"Marketing Workshop","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":8.849869,"selectedQuestionIds":["88184"],"selectedPollIds":["54648"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":4.849869,"selectedQuestionIds":["88186"],"selectedPollIds":["54650"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"302","pollster":"SEA Polling & Strategic Design","date":"2002-10-24","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":4.849869,"selectedQuestionIds":["88182"],"selectedPollIds":["54646"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":7.849869,"selectedQuestionIds":["88188"],"selectedPollIds":["54652"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"99","pollster":"The Florida Poll","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":6.849869,"selectedQuestionIds":["88185"],"selectedPollIds":["54649"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-3.150131,"selectedQuestionIds":["88187"],"selectedPollIds":["54651"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1389","race":"2002_Gov-G_GA","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Roy Barnes","republican":"Sonny Perdue","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":11.0,"actualDem":46.255,"actualRep":51.418977,"actualMargin":-5.163977,"actualDRShare":97.673977,"signedError":16.163977,"absoluteAverageMiss":16.163977,"individualPollMAE":16.163977,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-27","2002-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-5.163977,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"194","pollster":"Marketing Workshop","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":16.163977,"selectedQuestionIds":["88190"],"selectedPollIds":["25412"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"139","race":"2018_Gov-G_GA","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Stacey Abrams","republican":"Brian Kemp","pollDem":46.566667,"pollRep":48.483333,"pollMargin":-1.916667,"actualDem":48.832821,"actualRep":50.221967,"actualMargin":-1.389146,"actualDRShare":99.054788,"signedError":-0.527521,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.527521,"individualPollMAE":3.616667,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-1.389146,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"1","pollster":"20/20 Insight","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":5.389146,"selectedQuestionIds":["91483"],"selectedPollIds":["56775"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-2.2,"signedError":-0.810854,"selectedQuestionIds":["91228"],"selectedPollIds":["56645"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-2.1,"signedError":-0.710854,"selectedQuestionIds":["91270"],"selectedPollIds":["56670"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":0.9,"signedError":2.289146,"selectedQuestionIds":["90996"],"selectedPollIds":["56559"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":-12.3,"signedError":-10.910854,"selectedQuestionIds":["91429"],"selectedPollIds":["56749"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"350","pollster":"University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":0.2,"signedError":1.589146,"selectedQuestionIds":["91232"],"selectedPollIds":["56648"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1390","race":"2002_Gov-G_HI","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Mazie Hirono","republican":"Linda Lingle","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":47.014472,"actualRep":51.55819,"actualMargin":-4.543718,"actualDRShare":98.572662,"signedError":3.543718,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.543718,"individualPollMAE":3.543718,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-4.543718,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"375","pollster":"Ward Research","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":3.543718,"selectedQuestionIds":["88196"],"selectedPollIds":["54660"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1391","race":"2002_Gov-G_ID","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Jerry Brady","republican":"C. Dirk Kempthorne","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":41.7304,"actualRep":56.276779,"actualMargin":-14.546378,"actualDRShare":98.007179,"signedError":6.546378,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.546378,"individualPollMAE":6.546378,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-14.546378,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"128","pollster":"Greg Smith & Associates","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":6.546378,"selectedQuestionIds":["88207"],"selectedPollIds":["25492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1392","race":"2002_Gov-G_IL","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Rod Blagojevich","republican":"Jim Ryan","pollDem":48.775,"pollRep":38.5625,"pollMargin":10.2125,"actualDem":52.192622,"actualRep":45.069486,"actualMargin":7.123135,"actualDRShare":97.262108,"signedError":3.089365,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.089365,"individualPollMAE":5.225932,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":7.123135,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"189","pollster":"Escalent","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-1.123135,"selectedQuestionIds":["88234"],"selectedPollIds":["54698"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":8.876865,"selectedQuestionIds":["88233"],"selectedPollIds":["54697"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"160","pollster":"KRC Research","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":4.876865,"selectedQuestionIds":["88228"],"selectedPollIds":["54692"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":2.876865,"selectedQuestionIds":["88231"],"selectedPollIds":["25515"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.876865,"selectedQuestionIds":["88229"],"selectedPollIds":["25521"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":7.876865,"selectedQuestionIds":["88232"],"selectedPollIds":["54696"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":6.876865,"selectedQuestionIds":["88236"],"selectedPollIds":["54700"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":-0.3,"signedError":-7.423135,"selectedQuestionIds":["88237"],"selectedPollIds":["25671"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1393","race":"2002_Gov-G_IA","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Tom Vilsack","republican":"Doug Gross","pollDem":51.5,"pollRep":38.6,"pollMargin":12.9,"actualDem":52.685509,"actualRep":44.512684,"actualMargin":8.172825,"actualDRShare":97.198192,"signedError":4.727175,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.727175,"individualPollMAE":4.727175,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":8.172825,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"640","pollster":"Gazette Communications","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":12.7,"signedError":4.527175,"selectedQuestionIds":["136898"],"selectedPollIds":["72982"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":3.827175,"selectedQuestionIds":["88206"],"selectedPollIds":["25613"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":5.827175,"selectedQuestionIds":["88204"],"selectedPollIds":["54668"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1394","race":"2002_Gov-G_KS","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Kathleen Sebelius","republican":"Tim Shallenburger","pollDem":48.666667,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":7.666667,"actualDem":52.873307,"actualRep":45.091972,"actualMargin":7.781336,"actualDRShare":97.965279,"signedError":-0.114669,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.114669,"individualPollMAE":0.927112,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2002-10-26","2002-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":7.781336,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.218664,"selectedQuestionIds":["88245"],"selectedPollIds":["54709"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.781336,"selectedQuestionIds":["88247"],"selectedPollIds":["54711"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.781336,"selectedQuestionIds":["88248"],"selectedPollIds":["54712"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1395","race":"2002_Gov-G_ME","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"John Baldacci","republican":"Peter Cianchette","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":32.5,"pollMargin":15.5,"actualDem":47.14642,"actualRep":41.468754,"actualMargin":5.677666,"actualDRShare":88.615174,"signedError":9.822334,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.822334,"individualPollMAE":9.822334,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-25","2002-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":5.677666,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"249","pollster":"Pan Atlantic Research","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":15.322334,"selectedQuestionIds":["88301"],"selectedPollIds":["54765"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":4.322334,"selectedQuestionIds":["88300"],"selectedPollIds":["54764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1396","race":"2002_Gov-G_MD","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Kathleen Townsend","republican":"Robert Ehrlich Jr.","pollDem":45.75,"pollRep":48.25,"pollMargin":-2.5,"actualDem":47.675068,"actualRep":51.553325,"actualMargin":-3.878257,"actualDRShare":99.228393,"signedError":1.378257,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.378257,"individualPollMAE":2.0,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2002-10-24","2002-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-3.878257,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2002-10-24","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":3.878257,"selectedQuestionIds":["88287"],"selectedPollIds":["54751"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.878257,"selectedQuestionIds":["88290"],"selectedPollIds":["54754"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"256","pollster":"Potomac Incorporated","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-0.121743,"selectedQuestionIds":["88289"],"selectedPollIds":["54753"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-1.121743,"selectedQuestionIds":["88291"],"selectedPollIds":["54755"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1397","race":"2002_Gov-G_MA","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Shannon O'Brien","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":39.75,"pollRep":40.25,"pollMargin":-0.5,"actualDem":44.936215,"actualRep":49.767498,"actualMargin":-4.831283,"actualDRShare":94.703714,"signedError":4.331283,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.331283,"individualPollMAE":4.331283,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2002-10-26","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-4.831283,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"135","pollster":"Harvard University","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":6.831283,"selectedQuestionIds":["88266"],"selectedPollIds":["54730"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"160","pollster":"KRC Research","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":2.831283,"selectedQuestionIds":["88270"],"selectedPollIds":["54734"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":5.831283,"selectedQuestionIds":["88269"],"selectedPollIds":["54733"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":1.831283,"selectedQuestionIds":["88271"],"selectedPollIds":["54735"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1398","race":"2002_Gov-G_MI","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Jennifer Granholm","republican":"Dick Posthumus","pollDem":51.25,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":10.25,"actualDem":51.416604,"actualRep":47.398055,"actualMargin":4.018549,"actualDRShare":98.814658,"signedError":6.231451,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.231451,"individualPollMAE":6.231451,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":4.018549,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"663","pollster":"Detroit Free Press","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":8.981451,"selectedQuestionIds":["138481"],"selectedPollIds":["73825"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":4.981451,"selectedQuestionIds":["88322"],"selectedPollIds":["25451"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":8.981451,"selectedQuestionIds":["88321"],"selectedPollIds":["25552"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.981451,"selectedQuestionIds":["88323"],"selectedPollIds":["54787"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1399","race":"2002_Gov-G_MN","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Roger Moe","republican":"Tim Pawlenty","pollDem":33.333333,"pollRep":35.666667,"pollMargin":-2.333333,"actualDem":36.460726,"actualRep":44.372252,"actualMargin":-7.911527,"actualDRShare":80.832978,"signedError":5.578193,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.578193,"individualPollMAE":5.578193,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2002-10-31","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-7.911527,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":3.911527,"selectedQuestionIds":["88330"],"selectedPollIds":["25524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"315","pollster":"Minneapolis Star Tribune","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":4.911527,"selectedQuestionIds":["88331"],"selectedPollIds":["25617"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":7.911527,"selectedQuestionIds":["88333"],"selectedPollIds":["25674"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"14","race":"2014_Sen-G_NC","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Kay R. Hagan","republican":"Thomas Roland Tillis","pollDem":44.585714,"pollRep":44.157143,"pollMargin":0.428571,"actualDem":47.256199,"actualRep":48.820645,"actualMargin":-1.564446,"actualDRShare":96.076845,"signedError":1.993018,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.993018,"individualPollMAE":2.546033,"n":14,"pollsters":14,"sourceQuestions":16,"selectedQuestions":14,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.564446,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42123"],"selectedPollIds":["34414"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42100"],"selectedPollIds":["34402"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"86","pollster":"Elon University","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":5.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42143"],"selectedPollIds":["34425"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42274"],"selectedPollIds":["34514"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"132","pollster":"Harper Polling","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.435554,"selectedQuestionIds":["42120"],"selectedPollIds":["34412"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["41017"],"selectedPollIds":["33828"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42102"],"selectedPollIds":["34404"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"225","pollster":"National Research","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42131"],"selectedPollIds":["34416"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42170"],"selectedPollIds":["34437"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42136"],"selectedPollIds":["34421"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42104"],"selectedPollIds":["34406"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42177"],"selectedPollIds":["34440"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-3.435554,"selectedQuestionIds":["42161"],"selectedPollIds":["34433"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.564446,"selectedQuestionIds":["42103"],"selectedPollIds":["34405"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1400","race":"2002_Gov-G_NE","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Stormy Dean","republican":"Mike Johanns","pollDem":20.0,"pollRep":70.0,"pollMargin":-50.0,"actualDem":27.515692,"actualRep":68.680911,"actualMargin":-41.165219,"actualDRShare":96.196602,"signedError":-8.834781,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.834781,"individualPollMAE":8.834781,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-25","2002-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-41.165219,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"178","pollster":"MSR Group","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":-50.0,"signedError":-8.834781,"selectedQuestionIds":["88335"],"selectedPollIds":["25551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1401","race":"2002_Gov-G_NV","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Joseph Neal","republican":"Kenny Guinn","pollDem":24.5,"pollRep":64.0,"pollMargin":-39.5,"actualDem":22.007463,"actualRep":68.24347,"actualMargin":-46.236007,"actualDRShare":90.250933,"signedError":6.736007,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.736007,"individualPollMAE":6.736007,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-46.236007,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":-44.0,"signedError":2.236007,"selectedQuestionIds":["88360"],"selectedPollIds":["54823"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-35.0,"signedError":11.236007,"selectedQuestionIds":["88361"],"selectedPollIds":["54824"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1402","race":"2002_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Mark Fernald","republican":"Craig Benson","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":50.25,"pollMargin":-14.25,"actualDem":38.213583,"actualRep":58.617848,"actualMargin":-20.404266,"actualDRShare":96.831431,"signedError":6.154266,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.154266,"individualPollMAE":6.154266,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-20.404266,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":5.404266,"selectedQuestionIds":["88350"],"selectedPollIds":["25389"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"26","pollster":"Becker Institute","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":0.404266,"selectedQuestionIds":["88344"],"selectedPollIds":["54807"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"107","pollster":"Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":12.404266,"selectedQuestionIds":["88347"],"selectedPollIds":["25468"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":6.404266,"selectedQuestionIds":["88349"],"selectedPollIds":["25650"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1403","race":"2002_Gov-G_NM","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Bill Richardson","republican":"John Sanchez","pollDem":51.5,"pollRep":35.5,"pollMargin":16.0,"actualDem":55.48837,"actualRep":39.046079,"actualMargin":16.442291,"actualDRShare":94.534449,"signedError":-0.442291,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.442291,"individualPollMAE":2.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":16.442291,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-2.442291,"selectedQuestionIds":["88355"],"selectedPollIds":["25532"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":1.557709,"selectedQuestionIds":["88356"],"selectedPollIds":["25572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1405","race":"2002_Gov-G_OH","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Timothy Hagan","republican":"Bob Taft","pollDem":38.26,"pollRep":54.4,"pollMargin":-16.14,"actualDem":38.306815,"actualRep":57.75818,"actualMargin":-19.451364,"actualDRShare":96.064995,"signedError":3.311364,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.311364,"individualPollMAE":3.311364,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-19.451364,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":1.451364,"selectedQuestionIds":["88409"],"selectedPollIds":["54872"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":7.451364,"selectedQuestionIds":["88407"],"selectedPollIds":["54870"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":1.451364,"selectedQuestionIds":["88410"],"selectedPollIds":["54873"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-18.7,"signedError":0.751364,"selectedQuestionIds":["88411"],"selectedPollIds":["54874"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":5.451364,"selectedQuestionIds":["88408"],"selectedPollIds":["54871"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1406","race":"2002_Gov-G_OK","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Brad Henry","republican":"Steve Largent","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":43.272919,"actualRep":42.609934,"actualMargin":0.662984,"actualDRShare":85.882853,"signedError":3.337016,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.337016,"individualPollMAE":3.337016,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-11-02","2002-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":0.662984,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.337016,"selectedQuestionIds":["88419"],"selectedPollIds":["54882"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1407","race":"2002_Gov-G_OR","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Ted Kulongoski","republican":"Kevin Mannix","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":49.028597,"actualRep":46.155207,"actualMargin":2.87339,"actualDRShare":95.183804,"signedError":2.12661,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.12661,"individualPollMAE":2.12661,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-25","2002-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":2.87339,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.12661,"selectedQuestionIds":["88427"],"selectedPollIds":["25448"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"290","pollster":"Riley Research Associates","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.12661,"selectedQuestionIds":["88426"],"selectedPollIds":["25598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1408","race":"2002_Gov-G_PA","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Ed Rendell","republican":"Mike Fisher","pollDem":52.8,"pollRep":34.6,"pollMargin":18.2,"actualDem":53.412643,"actualRep":44.372219,"actualMargin":9.040424,"actualDRShare":97.784862,"signedError":9.159576,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.159576,"individualPollMAE":9.159576,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2002-10-24","2002-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":9.040424,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":7.959576,"selectedQuestionIds":["88451"],"selectedPollIds":["54914"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"210","pollster":"Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":9.959576,"selectedQuestionIds":["138514"],"selectedPollIds":["54911"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2002-10-24","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":9.959576,"selectedQuestionIds":["88447"],"selectedPollIds":["54910"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":9.959576,"selectedQuestionIds":["88450"],"selectedPollIds":["54913"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"377","pollster":"West Chester University","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":7.959576,"selectedQuestionIds":["88449"],"selectedPollIds":["54912"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1409","race":"2002_Gov-G_RI","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Myrth York","republican":"Donald Carcieri","pollDem":42.5,"pollRep":45.5,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":45.242068,"actualRep":54.757932,"actualMargin":-9.515865,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":6.515865,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.515865,"individualPollMAE":6.515865,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-9.515865,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":6.515865,"selectedQuestionIds":["88457"],"selectedPollIds":["54920"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":6.515865,"selectedQuestionIds":["88458"],"selectedPollIds":["54921"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"141","race":"2018_Gov-G_ID","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Paulette E. Jordan","republican":"Brad Little","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-16.0,"actualDem":38.186938,"actualRep":59.765737,"actualMargin":-21.578799,"actualDRShare":97.952675,"signedError":5.578799,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.578799,"individualPollMAE":5.578799,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-21.578799,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":5.578799,"selectedQuestionIds":["91522"],"selectedPollIds":["56795"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1410","race":"2002_Gov-G_SC","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"James H. Hodges","republican":"Mark Sanford","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":47.5,"pollMargin":-0.5,"actualDem":47.045973,"actualRep":52.849037,"actualMargin":-5.803065,"actualDRShare":99.89501,"signedError":5.303065,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.303065,"individualPollMAE":6.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-5.803065,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-1.196935,"selectedQuestionIds":["88469"],"selectedPollIds":["25533"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":11.803065,"selectedQuestionIds":["88470"],"selectedPollIds":["54933"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1411","race":"2002_Gov-G_SD","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Jim Abbott","republican":"M. Michael Rounds","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":54.5,"pollMargin":-16.5,"actualDem":41.924743,"actualRep":56.767267,"actualMargin":-14.842524,"actualDRShare":98.692009,"signedError":-1.657476,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.657476,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-26","2002-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-14.842524,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":0.842524,"selectedQuestionIds":["88476"],"selectedPollIds":["25472"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-4.157476,"selectedQuestionIds":["88475"],"selectedPollIds":["25536"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1412","race":"2002_Gov-G_TN","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Phil Bredesen","republican":"Van Hilleary","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":3.5,"actualDem":50.647273,"actualRep":47.593679,"actualMargin":3.053593,"actualDRShare":98.240952,"signedError":0.446407,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.446407,"individualPollMAE":0.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":3.053593,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.053593,"selectedQuestionIds":["88486"],"selectedPollIds":["25538"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.946407,"selectedQuestionIds":["88487"],"selectedPollIds":["54950"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1413","race":"2002_Gov-G_TX","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Tony Sanchez","republican":"Rick Perry","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-13.0,"actualDem":39.960544,"actualRep":57.808487,"actualMargin":-17.847943,"actualDRShare":97.769032,"signedError":4.847943,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.847943,"individualPollMAE":4.908766,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2002-10-24","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-17.847943,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"32","pollster":"Blum & Weprin Associates","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":5.847943,"selectedQuestionIds":["88511"],"selectedPollIds":["25421"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"105","pollster":"Frank N. Magid Associates Inc.","date":"2002-10-24","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":4.847943,"selectedQuestionIds":["88508"],"selectedPollIds":["25464"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"286","pollster":"Rice University","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":5.847943,"selectedQuestionIds":["88509"],"selectedPollIds":["25595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":7.847943,"selectedQuestionIds":["88510"],"selectedPollIds":["54973"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-0.152057,"selectedQuestionIds":["88513"],"selectedPollIds":["25695"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1414","race":"2002_Gov-G_VT","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Doug Racine","republican":"Jim Douglas","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":42.389892,"actualRep":44.940715,"actualMargin":-2.550823,"actualDRShare":87.330608,"signedError":12.550823,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.550823,"individualPollMAE":12.550823,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-31","2002-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-2.550823,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":12.550823,"selectedQuestionIds":["88518"],"selectedPollIds":["54981"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1415","race":"2002_Gov-G_WI","series":"governor","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Jim Doyle","republican":"Scott McCallum","pollDem":39.5,"pollRep":34.75,"pollMargin":4.75,"actualDem":45.090571,"actualRep":41.387862,"actualMargin":3.702709,"actualDRShare":86.478433,"signedError":1.047291,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.047291,"individualPollMAE":2.75,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":3.702709,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.702709,"selectedQuestionIds":["88534"],"selectedPollIds":["54996"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"313","pollster":"St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":4.297291,"selectedQuestionIds":["88532"],"selectedPollIds":["54994"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"365","pollster":"University of Wisconsin Survey Center","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":3.297291,"selectedQuestionIds":["88535"],"selectedPollIds":["54997"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"749","pollster":"University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Urban Initiatives and Research","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.702709,"selectedQuestionIds":["88533"],"selectedPollIds":["54995"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1417","race":"2001_Gov-G_NJ","series":"governor","year":2001,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2001,"electionDate":"2001-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"James E. McGreevey","republican":"Bret Schundler","pollDem":51.4,"pollRep":35.4,"pollMargin":16.0,"actualDem":56.432864,"actualRep":41.675134,"actualMargin":14.75773,"actualDRShare":98.107998,"signedError":1.24227,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.24227,"individualPollMAE":3.848454,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2001-10-30","2001-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":14.75773,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2001-10-30","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":3.24227,"selectedQuestionIds":["117675"],"selectedPollIds":["63926"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"760","pollster":"Gannett New Jersey","date":"2001-11-02","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":7.24227,"selectedQuestionIds":["117710"],"selectedPollIds":["63955"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2001-11-01","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-5.75773,"selectedQuestionIds":["117726"],"selectedPollIds":["63963"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2001-11-01","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":2.24227,"selectedQuestionIds":["117747"],"selectedPollIds":["63981"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2001-11-02","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.75773,"selectedQuestionIds":["117410"],"selectedPollIds":["63763"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1418","race":"2001_Gov-G_VA","series":"governor","year":2001,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2001,"electionDate":"2001-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Mark R. Warner","republican":"Mark Lawrence Earley","pollDem":48.2,"pollRep":39.4,"pollMargin":8.8,"actualDem":52.163356,"actualRep":47.025183,"actualMargin":5.138174,"actualDRShare":99.188539,"signedError":3.661826,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.661826,"individualPollMAE":3.661826,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2001-10-24","2001-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":5.138174,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2001-10-24","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":4.861826,"selectedQuestionIds":["117653"],"selectedPollIds":["63909"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2001-10-30","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.861826,"selectedQuestionIds":["117700"],"selectedPollIds":["63946"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"288","pollster":"Richmond Times-Dispatch","date":"2001-10-29","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":7.861826,"selectedQuestionIds":["117741"],"selectedPollIds":["63975"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2001-10-26","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":3.861826,"selectedQuestionIds":["117742"],"selectedPollIds":["63976"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2001-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.861826,"selectedQuestionIds":["117411"],"selectedPollIds":["63764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1419","race":"2000_Gov-G_DE","series":"governor","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"DE","democrat":"Ruth Minner","republican":"John Burris","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":59.243933,"actualRep":39.745155,"actualMargin":19.498778,"actualDRShare":98.989087,"signedError":-7.498778,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.498778,"individualPollMAE":7.498778,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-31","2000-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":19.498778,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-7.498778,"selectedQuestionIds":["87979"],"selectedPollIds":["25768"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"142","race":"2018_Gov-G_IL","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"J.B. Pritzker","republican":"Bruce Rauner","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":16.0,"actualDem":54.527991,"actualRep":38.827708,"actualMargin":15.700283,"actualDRShare":93.355699,"signedError":0.299717,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.299717,"individualPollMAE":0.299717,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-02","2018-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":15.700283,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":0.299717,"selectedQuestionIds":["91406"],"selectedPollIds":["56736"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1420","race":"2000_Gov-G_IN","series":"governor","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Frank L. O'Bannon","republican":"David McIntosh","pollDem":51.25,"pollRep":39.25,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":56.556835,"actualRep":41.678444,"actualMargin":14.87839,"actualDRShare":98.235279,"signedError":-2.87839,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.87839,"individualPollMAE":3.439195,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-27","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":14.87839,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-2.87839,"selectedQuestionIds":["87990"],"selectedPollIds":["54454"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":1.12161,"selectedQuestionIds":["87986"],"selectedPollIds":["54450"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.87839,"selectedQuestionIds":["87988"],"selectedPollIds":["54452"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-8.87839,"selectedQuestionIds":["87989"],"selectedPollIds":["54453"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1421","race":"2000_Gov-G_MO","series":"governor","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Robert Lee Holden, Jr.","republican":"Jim Talent","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":46.5,"pollMargin":-0.5,"actualDem":49.119536,"actualRep":48.20575,"actualMargin":0.913786,"actualDRShare":97.325286,"signedError":-1.413786,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.413786,"individualPollMAE":1.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-11-03","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":0.913786,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.913786,"selectedQuestionIds":["88005"],"selectedPollIds":["54469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.086214,"selectedQuestionIds":["120633"],"selectedPollIds":["65025"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1423","race":"2000_Gov-G_NC","series":"governor","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Mike Easley","republican":"Richard Vinroot","pollDem":48.25,"pollRep":43.25,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":52.015355,"actualRep":46.258712,"actualMargin":5.756643,"actualDRShare":98.274068,"signedError":-0.756643,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.756643,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":5.756643,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":4.243357,"selectedQuestionIds":["88022"],"selectedPollIds":["54486"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":1.243357,"selectedQuestionIds":["88020"],"selectedPollIds":["6294"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.756643,"selectedQuestionIds":["88021"],"selectedPollIds":["54485"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.756643,"selectedQuestionIds":["88023"],"selectedPollIds":["54487"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1425","race":"2000_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Jeanne Shaheen","republican":"Gordon Humphrey","pollDem":46.25,"pollRep":37.75,"pollMargin":8.5,"actualDem":48.736223,"actualRep":43.759436,"actualMargin":4.976787,"actualDRShare":92.495659,"signedError":3.523213,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.523213,"individualPollMAE":6.511606,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":4.976787,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-5.976787,"selectedQuestionIds":["88039"],"selectedPollIds":["54503"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"107","pollster":"Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":16.023213,"selectedQuestionIds":["88037"],"selectedPollIds":["54501"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.023213,"selectedQuestionIds":["88040"],"selectedPollIds":["54504"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.023213,"selectedQuestionIds":["88041"],"selectedPollIds":["6164"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1426","race":"2000_Gov-G_UT","series":"governor","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Bill Orton","republican":"Michael Leavitt","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-16.0,"actualDem":42.265222,"actualRep":55.767085,"actualMargin":-13.501863,"actualDRShare":98.032307,"signedError":-2.498137,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.498137,"individualPollMAE":2.498137,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-13.501863,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-0.498137,"selectedQuestionIds":["88046"],"selectedPollIds":["54510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-4.498137,"selectedQuestionIds":["88045"],"selectedPollIds":["54509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1427","race":"2000_Gov-G_VT","series":"governor","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Howard Dean","republican":"Ruth Dwyer","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":7.0,"actualDem":50.450638,"actualRep":37.945228,"actualMargin":12.505409,"actualDRShare":88.395866,"signedError":-5.505409,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.505409,"individualPollMAE":5.505409,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-26","2000-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":12.505409,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-5.505409,"selectedQuestionIds":["88054"],"selectedPollIds":["54518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1428","race":"2000_Gov-G_WA","series":"governor","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Gary Locke","republican":"John Carlson","pollDem":55.5,"pollRep":41.5,"pollMargin":14.0,"actualDem":58.382972,"actualRep":39.68092,"actualMargin":18.702052,"actualDRShare":98.063892,"signedError":-4.702052,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.702052,"individualPollMAE":4.702052,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-31","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":18.702052,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-5.702052,"selectedQuestionIds":["88061"],"selectedPollIds":["54525"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-3.702052,"selectedQuestionIds":["88060"],"selectedPollIds":["54524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1429","race":"2000_Gov-G_WV","series":"governor","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"Bob Wise","republican":"Cecil Underwood","pollDem":48.5,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":4.5,"actualDem":50.123216,"actualRep":47.207378,"actualMargin":2.915838,"actualDRShare":97.330595,"signedError":1.584162,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.584162,"individualPollMAE":1.584162,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-11-02","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":2.915838,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.084162,"selectedQuestionIds":["88067"],"selectedPollIds":["54531"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.084162,"selectedQuestionIds":["88066"],"selectedPollIds":["54530"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"143","race":"2018_Gov-G_IA","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Fred Hubbell","republican":"Kim Reynolds","pollDem":46.666667,"pollRep":46.3,"pollMargin":0.366667,"actualDem":47.526961,"actualRep":50.260312,"actualMargin":-2.733351,"actualDRShare":97.787273,"signedError":3.100017,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.100017,"individualPollMAE":3.877784,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-31","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-2.733351,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":5.733351,"selectedQuestionIds":["91523"],"selectedPollIds":["56796"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":-3.9,"signedError":-1.166649,"selectedQuestionIds":["91272"],"selectedPollIds":["56672"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":4.733351,"selectedQuestionIds":["91367"],"selectedPollIds":["56722"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1433","race":"1998_Gov-G_AL","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Don Siegelman","republican":"Forrest H. 'Fob' James, Jr.","pollDem":51.333333,"pollRep":41.333333,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":57.810816,"actualRep":42.189184,"actualMargin":15.621632,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.621632,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.621632,"individualPollMAE":5.873877,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":15.621632,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-9.621632,"selectedQuestionIds":["87724"],"selectedPollIds":["26095"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"311","pollster":"Southern Opinion Research","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-7.621632,"selectedQuestionIds":["87726"],"selectedPollIds":["54190"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"361","pollster":"University of South Alabama Polling Group","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":0.378368,"selectedQuestionIds":["87725"],"selectedPollIds":["54189"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1435","race":"1998_Gov-G_AZ","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Paul Johnson","republican":"Jane Hull","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-17.0,"actualDem":35.529316,"actualRep":60.94519,"actualMargin":-25.415874,"actualDRShare":96.474505,"signedError":8.415874,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.415874,"individualPollMAE":8.415874,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-30","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-25.415874,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":8.415874,"selectedQuestionIds":["87740"],"selectedPollIds":["54204"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1436","race":"1998_Gov-G_CA","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Gray Davis","republican":"Dan Lungren","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":40.25,"pollMargin":13.75,"actualDem":57.968167,"actualRep":38.377458,"actualMargin":19.59071,"actualDRShare":96.345625,"signedError":-5.84071,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.84071,"individualPollMAE":7.545355,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["1998-10-24","1998-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":19.59071,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-5.59071,"selectedQuestionIds":["87752"],"selectedPollIds":["26033"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-8.59071,"selectedQuestionIds":["87754"],"selectedPollIds":["54218"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-12.59071,"selectedQuestionIds":["87753"],"selectedPollIds":["26103"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-11-01","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":3.40929,"selectedQuestionIds":["87755"],"selectedPollIds":["54219"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1437","race":"1998_Gov-G_CO","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Gail Schoettler","republican":"William F. Owens","pollDem":42.333333,"pollRep":44.333333,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":48.419479,"actualRep":49.038414,"actualMargin":-0.618935,"actualDRShare":97.457893,"signedError":-1.381065,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.381065,"individualPollMAE":3.793688,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-20","1998-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-0.618935,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"51","pollster":"Ciruli Associates","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-3.381065,"selectedQuestionIds":["87764"],"selectedPollIds":["54228"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-20","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":3.618935,"selectedQuestionIds":["87761"],"selectedPollIds":["54225"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-4.381065,"selectedQuestionIds":["87763"],"selectedPollIds":["26108"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1439","race":"1998_Gov-G_FL","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Buddy MacKay","republican":"Jeb Bush","pollDem":41.333333,"pollRep":52.666667,"pollMargin":-11.333333,"actualDem":44.723935,"actualRep":55.268952,"actualMargin":-10.545018,"actualDRShare":99.992887,"signedError":-0.788316,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.788316,"individualPollMAE":2.484994,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["1998-10-22","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-10.545018,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"100","pollster":"Forman Center","date":"1998-10-22","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":2.545018,"selectedQuestionIds":["87784"],"selectedPollIds":["54248"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-6.454982,"selectedQuestionIds":["87789"],"selectedPollIds":["54253"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"148","pollster":"Independent Market Research","date":"1998-10-22","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-0.454982,"selectedQuestionIds":["87785"],"selectedPollIds":["54249"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":2.545018,"selectedQuestionIds":["87788"],"selectedPollIds":["54252"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-1.454982,"selectedQuestionIds":["87786"],"selectedPollIds":["54250"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-1.454982,"selectedQuestionIds":["87787"],"selectedPollIds":["54251"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"144","race":"2018_Gov-G_KS","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Laura Kelly","republican":"Kris W. Kobach","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":44.3,"pollMargin":-1.3,"actualDem":48.02754,"actualRep":42.956623,"actualMargin":5.070916,"actualDRShare":90.984163,"signedError":-6.370916,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.370916,"individualPollMAE":6.370916,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":5.070916,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":-1.3,"signedError":-6.370916,"selectedQuestionIds":["90975"],"selectedPollIds":["56545"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1440","race":"1998_Gov-G_GA","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Roy Barnes","republican":"Guy Millner","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":52.491734,"actualRep":44.076164,"actualMargin":8.415569,"actualDRShare":96.567898,"signedError":-13.415569,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.415569,"individualPollMAE":13.415569,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":8.415569,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-15.415569,"selectedQuestionIds":["87798"],"selectedPollIds":["54262"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"194","pollster":"Marketing Workshop","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-13.415569,"selectedQuestionIds":["87796"],"selectedPollIds":["54260"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-11.415569,"selectedQuestionIds":["87797"],"selectedPollIds":["26118"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1441","race":"1998_Gov-G_HI","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Benjamin Cayetano","republican":"Linda Lingle","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":47.5,"pollMargin":-8.5,"actualDem":50.105016,"actualRep":48.815868,"actualMargin":1.289148,"actualDRShare":98.920884,"signedError":-9.789148,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.789148,"individualPollMAE":9.789148,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["1998-10-22","1998-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":1.289148,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-29","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-10.289148,"selectedQuestionIds":["87803"],"selectedPollIds":["54267"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"375","pollster":"Ward Research","date":"1998-10-22","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-9.289148,"selectedQuestionIds":["87802"],"selectedPollIds":["54266"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1443","race":"1998_Gov-G_IL","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Glenn Poshard","republican":"George Ryan","pollDem":37.5,"pollRep":52.5,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":47.464454,"actualRep":51.034372,"actualMargin":-3.569918,"actualDRShare":98.498826,"signedError":-11.430082,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.430082,"individualPollMAE":11.430082,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-3.569918,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-10.430082,"selectedQuestionIds":["87834"],"selectedPollIds":["54298"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-7.430082,"selectedQuestionIds":["87831"],"selectedPollIds":["26126"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"287","pollster":"Richard Day Research","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-17.430082,"selectedQuestionIds":["87832"],"selectedPollIds":["26223"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-10.430082,"selectedQuestionIds":["87833"],"selectedPollIds":["26271"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1444","race":"1998_Gov-G_IA","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Tom Vilsack","republican":"Jim Lightfoot","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":52.302714,"actualRep":46.505649,"actualMargin":5.797065,"actualDRShare":98.808362,"signedError":-8.797065,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.797065,"individualPollMAE":8.797065,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":5.797065,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"329","pollster":"Drake Research & Strategy, Inc.","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.797065,"selectedQuestionIds":["87812"],"selectedPollIds":["54276"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-10.797065,"selectedQuestionIds":["87811"],"selectedPollIds":["54275"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"1998-10-29","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-9.797065,"selectedQuestionIds":["87813"],"selectedPollIds":["54277"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1445","race":"1998_Gov-G_KS","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Tom Sawyer","republican":"William Graves","pollDem":21.0,"pollRep":74.0,"pollMargin":-53.0,"actualDem":22.653956,"actualRep":73.368477,"actualMargin":-50.714521,"actualDRShare":96.022433,"signedError":-2.285479,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.285479,"individualPollMAE":2.285479,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-28","1998-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-50.714521,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":-53.0,"signedError":-2.285479,"selectedQuestionIds":["87836"],"selectedPollIds":["54300"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1446","race":"1998_Gov-G_ME","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Thomas Connolly","republican":"James Longley Jr.","pollDem":13.0,"pollRep":18.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":11.996418,"actualRep":18.934512,"actualMargin":-6.938094,"actualDRShare":30.93093,"signedError":1.938094,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.938094,"individualPollMAE":1.938094,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-31","1998-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-6.938094,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":1.938094,"selectedQuestionIds":["87864"],"selectedPollIds":["54328"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1447","race":"1998_Gov-G_MD","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Parris Glendening","republican":"Ellen Sauerbrey","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":55.142196,"actualRep":44.815551,"actualMargin":10.326645,"actualDRShare":99.957747,"signedError":-9.326645,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.326645,"individualPollMAE":9.326645,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["1998-10-20","1998-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":10.326645,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"1998-10-20","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-5.326645,"selectedQuestionIds":["87859"],"selectedPollIds":["54323"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-20","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-23.326645,"selectedQuestionIds":["87860"],"selectedPollIds":["54324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.326645,"selectedQuestionIds":["87862"],"selectedPollIds":["54326"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"256","pollster":"Potomac Incorporated","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.326645,"selectedQuestionIds":["87861"],"selectedPollIds":["54325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1448","race":"1998_Gov-G_MA","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Scott Harshbarger","republican":"A. Paul Cellucci","pollDem":41.5,"pollRep":48.75,"pollMargin":-7.25,"actualDem":47.382228,"actualRep":50.813939,"actualMargin":-3.431711,"actualDRShare":98.196167,"signedError":-3.818289,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.818289,"individualPollMAE":3.818289,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["1998-10-27","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-3.431711,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-7.568289,"selectedQuestionIds":["87847"],"selectedPollIds":["54311"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"160","pollster":"KRC Research","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-1.568289,"selectedQuestionIds":["87844"],"selectedPollIds":["54308"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-5.568289,"selectedQuestionIds":["87845"],"selectedPollIds":["54309"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-0.568289,"selectedQuestionIds":["87846"],"selectedPollIds":["54310"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1449","race":"1998_Gov-G_MI","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Geoffrey Fieger","republican":"John Engler","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":62.0,"pollMargin":-28.0,"actualDem":37.777823,"actualRep":62.204833,"actualMargin":-24.42701,"actualDRShare":99.982657,"signedError":-3.57299,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.57299,"individualPollMAE":4.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["1998-10-21","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-24.42701,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":0.42701,"selectedQuestionIds":["87872"],"selectedPollIds":["54336"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"1998-10-21","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":-7.57299,"selectedQuestionIds":["87871"],"selectedPollIds":["54335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"145","race":"2018_Gov-G_ME","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Janet T. Mills","republican":"Shawn H. Moody","pollDem":52.35,"pollRep":39.85,"pollMargin":12.5,"actualDem":50.892468,"actualRep":43.178254,"actualMargin":7.714214,"actualDRShare":94.070722,"signedError":4.785786,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.785786,"individualPollMAE":4.785786,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":7.714214,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.285786,"selectedQuestionIds":["91108"],"selectedPollIds":["56597"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"451","pollster":"Slingshot Strategies","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":9.285786,"selectedQuestionIds":["91289"],"selectedPollIds":["56680"],"partisanFlags":["IND"]}]},{"raceId":"1450","race":"1998_Gov-G_MN","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Hubert Humphrey III","republican":"Norm Coleman","pollDem":33.666667,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":2.666667,"actualDem":28.082035,"actualRep":34.291979,"actualMargin":-6.209944,"actualDRShare":62.374014,"signedError":8.876611,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.876611,"individualPollMAE":8.876611,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-24","1998-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-6.209944,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":7.209944,"selectedQuestionIds":["87879"],"selectedPollIds":["54343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"315","pollster":"Minneapolis Star Tribune","date":"1998-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":11.209944,"selectedQuestionIds":["87880"],"selectedPollIds":["54344"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"312","pollster":"St. Cloud State University","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":8.209944,"selectedQuestionIds":["138533"],"selectedPollIds":["73856"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1451","race":"1998_Gov-G_NE","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Bill Hoppner","republican":"Mike Johanns","pollDem":37.5,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-14.5,"actualDem":45.975886,"actualRep":53.9049,"actualMargin":-7.929014,"actualDRShare":99.880786,"signedError":-6.570986,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.570986,"individualPollMAE":6.570986,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["1998-10-22","1998-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-7.929014,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-7.070986,"selectedQuestionIds":["87884"],"selectedPollIds":["54348"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"1998-10-22","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-6.070986,"selectedQuestionIds":["87883"],"selectedPollIds":["54347"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1452","race":"1998_Gov-G_NV","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Jan Jones","republican":"Kenny Guinn","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":41.977984,"actualRep":51.560694,"actualMargin":-9.58271,"actualDRShare":93.538678,"signedError":6.58271,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.58271,"individualPollMAE":6.58271,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-9.58271,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":6.58271,"selectedQuestionIds":["87900"],"selectedPollIds":["26156"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1454","race":"1998_Gov-G_NM","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Martin Chavez","republican":"Gary Johnson","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":45.468946,"actualRep":54.531054,"actualMargin":-9.062107,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.062107,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.062107,"individualPollMAE":5.062107,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-20","1998-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-9.062107,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-20","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":5.062107,"selectedQuestionIds":["87895"],"selectedPollIds":["54359"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1456","race":"1998_Gov-G_OH","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Lee Fisher","republican":"Bob Taft","pollDem":42.2,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-6.8,"actualDem":44.688754,"actualRep":50.048133,"actualMargin":-5.359379,"actualDRShare":94.736888,"signedError":-1.440621,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.440621,"individualPollMAE":3.328124,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-5.359379,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":4.359379,"selectedQuestionIds":["87933"],"selectedPollIds":["54397"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-4.640621,"selectedQuestionIds":["87934"],"selectedPollIds":["54398"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"173","pollster":"Louis Harris & Associates","date":"1998-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":0.359379,"selectedQuestionIds":["87935"],"selectedPollIds":["54399"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-1.640621,"selectedQuestionIds":["87931"],"selectedPollIds":["26167"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-5.640621,"selectedQuestionIds":["87932"],"selectedPollIds":["54396"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1459","race":"1998_Gov-G_PA","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Ivan Itkin","republican":"Thomas Ridge","pollDem":19.666667,"pollRep":62.333333,"pollMargin":-42.666667,"actualDem":31.033498,"actualRep":57.41745,"actualMargin":-26.383953,"actualDRShare":88.450948,"signedError":-16.282714,"absoluteAverageMiss":16.282714,"individualPollMAE":16.282714,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-26.383953,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-41.0,"signedError":-14.616047,"selectedQuestionIds":["87945"],"selectedPollIds":["54409"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-36.0,"signedError":-9.616047,"selectedQuestionIds":["87944"],"selectedPollIds":["54408"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"210","pollster":"Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-51.0,"signedError":-24.616047,"selectedQuestionIds":["87943"],"selectedPollIds":["26189"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1460","race":"1998_Gov-G_RI","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Myrth York","republican":"Lincoln Almond","pollDem":42.333333,"pollRep":42.333333,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":42.129909,"actualRep":50.9651,"actualMargin":-8.835191,"actualDRShare":93.095009,"signedError":8.835191,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.835191,"individualPollMAE":8.835191,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-21","1998-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-8.835191,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"1998-10-23","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":4.835191,"selectedQuestionIds":["87950"],"selectedPollIds":["54414"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"160","pollster":"KRC Research","date":"1998-10-21","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":13.835191,"selectedQuestionIds":["87949"],"selectedPollIds":["54413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":7.835191,"selectedQuestionIds":["87951"],"selectedPollIds":["54415"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1461","race":"1998_Gov-G_SC","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"James H. Hodges","republican":"David M. Beasley","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":53.234336,"actualRep":45.205156,"actualMargin":8.02918,"actualDRShare":98.439492,"signedError":-10.02918,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.02918,"individualPollMAE":10.02918,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-27","1998-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":8.02918,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-10.02918,"selectedQuestionIds":["87955"],"selectedPollIds":["26175"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1464","race":"1998_Gov-G_TX","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Garry Mauro","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":23.75,"pollRep":70.25,"pollMargin":-46.5,"actualDem":31.181586,"actualRep":68.238838,"actualMargin":-37.057252,"actualDRShare":99.420424,"signedError":-9.442748,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.442748,"individualPollMAE":9.442748,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["1998-10-27","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-37.057252,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"32","pollster":"Blum & Weprin Associates","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":-47.0,"signedError":-9.942748,"selectedQuestionIds":["87962"],"selectedPollIds":["54426"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-48.0,"signedError":-10.942748,"selectedQuestionIds":["87964"],"selectedPollIds":["54428"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"140","pollster":"Hill Research Consultants","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-47.0,"signedError":-9.942748,"selectedQuestionIds":["87961"],"selectedPollIds":["54425"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-29","pollMargin":-44.0,"signedError":-6.942748,"selectedQuestionIds":["87963"],"selectedPollIds":["54427"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1466","race":"1998_Gov-G_WI","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Ed Garvey","republican":"Tommy Thompson","pollDem":26.0,"pollRep":67.0,"pollMargin":-41.0,"actualDem":38.698609,"actualRep":59.664445,"actualMargin":-20.965835,"actualDRShare":98.363054,"signedError":-20.034165,"absoluteAverageMiss":20.034165,"individualPollMAE":20.034165,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-23","1998-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-20.965835,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"1998-10-23","pollMargin":-41.0,"signedError":-20.034165,"selectedQuestionIds":["87976"],"selectedPollIds":["54440"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1468","race":"1998_Gov-G_AR","series":"governor","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Bill Bristow","republican":"Mike Huckabee","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-25.0,"actualDem":38.657046,"actualRep":59.770882,"actualMargin":-21.113835,"actualDRShare":98.427928,"signedError":-3.886165,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.886165,"individualPollMAE":3.886165,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-24","1998-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-21.113835,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":-25.0,"signedError":-3.886165,"selectedQuestionIds":["87732"],"selectedPollIds":["26097"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1469","race":"2016_Sen-R_LA","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-12-10","raceKind":"R","location":"LA","democrat":"Foster L. Campbell","republican":"John Kennedy","pollDem":35.9425,"pollRep":55.22,"pollMargin":-19.2775,"actualDem":39.34539,"actualRep":60.65461,"actualMargin":-21.30922,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":2.03172,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.03172,"individualPollMAE":5.87711,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-11-29","2016-12-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-21.30922,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-29","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":3.30922,"selectedQuestionIds":["82630"],"selectedPollIds":["52343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"310","pollster":"Southern Media & Opinion Research","date":"2016-11-29","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":7.30922,"selectedQuestionIds":["77706"],"selectedPollIds":["49495"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2016-12-05","pollMargin":-16.11,"signedError":5.19922,"selectedQuestionIds":["82628"],"selectedPollIds":["52341"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"358","pollster":"University of New Orleans Survey Research Center","date":"2016-12-06","pollMargin":-29.0,"signedError":-7.69078,"selectedQuestionIds":["82631"],"selectedPollIds":["52344"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"147","race":"2018_Gov-G_MA","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Jay M. Gonzalez","republican":"Charles D. Baker","pollDem":25.5,"pollRep":66.7,"pollMargin":-41.2,"actualDem":33.117664,"actualRep":66.601773,"actualMargin":-33.484109,"actualDRShare":99.719436,"signedError":-7.715891,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.715891,"individualPollMAE":7.715891,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-26","2018-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-33.484109,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"198","pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":-43.0,"signedError":-9.515891,"selectedQuestionIds":["91186"],"selectedPollIds":["56606"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-39.4,"signedError":-5.915891,"selectedQuestionIds":["90912"],"selectedPollIds":["56512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1473","race":"2012_Sen-G_AZ","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Richard Carmona","republican":"Jeff Flake","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":46.203612,"actualRep":49.230907,"actualMargin":-3.027295,"actualDRShare":95.434519,"signedError":-2.972705,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.972705,"individualPollMAE":2.972705,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-11-02","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.027295,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-1.972705,"selectedQuestionIds":["36950"],"selectedPollIds":["30682"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-3.972705,"selectedQuestionIds":["36957"],"selectedPollIds":["30685"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1474","race":"2012_Sen-G_CA","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Dianne Feinstein","republican":"Elizabeth Emken","pollDem":53.766667,"pollRep":34.566667,"pollMargin":19.2,"actualDem":62.524284,"actualRep":37.475716,"actualMargin":25.048569,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.848569,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.848569,"individualPollMAE":5.848569,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":25.048569,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-4.048569,"selectedQuestionIds":["36857"],"selectedPollIds":["30638"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"177","pollster":"MFour Mobile Research","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":19.6,"signedError":-5.448569,"selectedQuestionIds":["36638"],"selectedPollIds":["30479"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":-8.048569,"selectedQuestionIds":["36992"],"selectedPollIds":["30703"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1475","race":"2012_Sen-G_CT","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Christopher Murphy","republican":"Linda McMahon","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":43.25,"pollMargin":5.75,"actualDem":54.820792,"actualRep":43.068164,"actualMargin":11.752628,"actualDRShare":97.888956,"signedError":-6.002628,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.002628,"individualPollMAE":6.002628,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.463189,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.710561,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"576","pollster":"Penta","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-5.752628,"selectedQuestionIds":["37209"],"selectedPollIds":["30829"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-2.752628,"selectedQuestionIds":["36826"],"selectedPollIds":["30623"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-5.752628,"selectedQuestionIds":["137428"],"selectedPollIds":["73314"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-9.752628,"selectedQuestionIds":["36990"],"selectedPollIds":["30702"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1477","race":"2012_Sen-G_FL","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Bill Nelson","republican":"Connie Mack","pollDem":50.953846,"pollRep":43.030769,"pollMargin":7.923077,"actualDem":55.231756,"actualRep":42.225761,"actualMargin":13.005995,"actualDRShare":97.457517,"signedError":-5.082918,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.082918,"individualPollMAE":6.157997,"n":13,"pollsters":13,"sourceQuestions":19,"selectedQuestions":13,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.005995,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-5.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["37116"],"selectedPollIds":["30773"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-10.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["36631"],"selectedPollIds":["30499"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":1.994005,"selectedQuestionIds":["37136"],"selectedPollIds":["30785"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-4.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["36840"],"selectedPollIds":["30629"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-7.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["36923"],"selectedPollIds":["30625"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-8.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["37060"],"selectedPollIds":["30748"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-0.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["36603"],"selectedPollIds":["30482"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-9.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["36861"],"selectedPollIds":["30641"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-10.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["36482"],"selectedPollIds":["30327"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-5.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["36527"],"selectedPollIds":["30436"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-8.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["36487"],"selectedPollIds":["30334"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-7.005995,"selectedQuestionIds":["37007"],"selectedPollIds":["30711"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":4.994005,"selectedQuestionIds":["150618"],"selectedPollIds":["30806"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1478","race":"2012_Sen-G_HI","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Mazie Hirono","republican":"Linda Lingle","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":15.0,"actualDem":61.645534,"actualRep":36.827333,"actualMargin":24.818201,"actualDRShare":98.472867,"signedError":-9.818201,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.818201,"individualPollMAE":9.818201,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-26","2012-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":25.203086,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.384885,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-9.818201,"selectedQuestionIds":["36765"],"selectedPollIds":["30541"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1479","race":"2012_Sen-G_IN","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Joe Donnelly","republican":"Richard Mourdock","pollDem":46.571429,"pollRep":41.285714,"pollMargin":5.285714,"actualDem":50.044139,"actualRep":44.280306,"actualMargin":5.763833,"actualDRShare":94.324445,"signedError":-0.478119,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.478119,"individualPollMAE":3.605167,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.763833,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"52","pollster":"Clarity Campaign Labs","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":1.236167,"selectedQuestionIds":["37215"],"selectedPollIds":["30831"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":3.236167,"selectedQuestionIds":["119995"],"selectedPollIds":["30821"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"142","pollster":"Howey Politics/DePauw University","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":5.236167,"selectedQuestionIds":["36773"],"selectedPollIds":["30585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"14","pollster":"Impact Research","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":1.236167,"selectedQuestionIds":["37216"],"selectedPollIds":["30832"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"203","pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-7.763833,"selectedQuestionIds":["37212"],"selectedPollIds":["30619"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.763833,"selectedQuestionIds":["36942"],"selectedPollIds":["30611"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.763833,"selectedQuestionIds":["137808"],"selectedPollIds":["30688"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"148","race":"2018_Gov-G_MI","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Gretchen Whitmer","republican":"Bill Schuette","pollDem":49.35,"pollRep":41.566667,"pollMargin":7.783333,"actualDem":53.31485,"actualRep":43.747719,"actualMargin":9.56713,"actualDRShare":97.062569,"signedError":-1.783797,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.783797,"individualPollMAE":3.039043,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":9.56713,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-1.56713,"selectedQuestionIds":["91552"],"selectedPollIds":["56811"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":10.4,"signedError":0.83287,"selectedQuestionIds":["90901"],"selectedPollIds":["56507"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"117","pollster":"Glengariff Group","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":12.5,"signedError":2.93287,"selectedQuestionIds":["90924"],"selectedPollIds":["56520"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2018-11-05","pollMargin":7.8,"signedError":-1.76713,"selectedQuestionIds":["91568"],"selectedPollIds":["56815"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-5.56713,"selectedQuestionIds":["91408"],"selectedPollIds":["56738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"330","pollster":"Target Insyght","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-5.56713,"selectedQuestionIds":["91419"],"selectedPollIds":["56743"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1480","race":"2012_Sen-G_ME","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Cynthia Dill","republican":"Charlie Summers","pollDem":11.233333,"pollRep":34.333333,"pollMargin":-23.1,"actualDem":12.818744,"actualRep":29.721686,"actualMargin":-16.902942,"actualDRShare":42.540429,"signedError":-6.197058,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.197058,"individualPollMAE":6.197058,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-30","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.484895,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.581953,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"64","pollster":"Digital Research","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-5.097058,"selectedQuestionIds":["36921"],"selectedPollIds":["30669"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"180","pollster":"Maine People's Resource Center","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-23.3,"signedError":-6.397058,"selectedQuestionIds":["37164"],"selectedPollIds":["30802"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-7.097058,"selectedQuestionIds":["36822"],"selectedPollIds":["30620"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1481","race":"2012_Sen-G_MD","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Benjamin L. Cardin","republican":"Daniel J. Bongino","pollDem":57.0,"pollRep":34.0,"pollMargin":23.0,"actualDem":55.977858,"actualRep":26.328499,"actualMargin":29.649359,"actualDRShare":82.306358,"signedError":-6.649359,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.649359,"individualPollMAE":6.649359,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-11-02","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":29.649359,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":-6.649359,"selectedQuestionIds":["36984"],"selectedPollIds":["30699"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1482","race":"2012_Sen-G_MA","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Elizabeth Warren","republican":"Scott Brown","pollDem":49.875,"pollRep":46.625,"pollMargin":3.25,"actualDem":53.273919,"actualRep":45.790146,"actualMargin":7.483773,"actualDRShare":99.064065,"signedError":-4.233773,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.233773,"individualPollMAE":4.233773,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.483773,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"163","pollster":"Kimball Political Consulting","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-9.483773,"selectedQuestionIds":["36778"],"selectedPollIds":["30587"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-1.483773,"selectedQuestionIds":["36828"],"selectedPollIds":["30624"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-2.483773,"selectedQuestionIds":["36625"],"selectedPollIds":["30328"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.483773,"selectedQuestionIds":["36540"],"selectedPollIds":["30445"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-8.483773,"selectedQuestionIds":["37046"],"selectedPollIds":["30740"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-7.483773,"selectedQuestionIds":["36491"],"selectedPollIds":["30413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"380","pollster":"Western New England University Polling Institute","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-3.483773,"selectedQuestionIds":["137785"],"selectedPollIds":["30650"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.483773,"selectedQuestionIds":["36986"],"selectedPollIds":["30700"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1483","race":"2012_Sen-G_MI","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Debbie Stabenow","republican":"Pete Hoekstra","pollDem":53.637143,"pollRep":40.135714,"pollMargin":13.501429,"actualDem":58.79807,"actualRep":37.984465,"actualMargin":20.813606,"actualDRShare":96.782535,"signedError":-7.312177,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.312177,"individualPollMAE":7.365433,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":20.813606,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-7.813606,"selectedQuestionIds":["37120"],"selectedPollIds":["30775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"25","pollster":"Baydoun Consulting","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":6.61,"signedError":-14.203606,"selectedQuestionIds":["36941"],"selectedPollIds":["30679"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":0.186394,"selectedQuestionIds":["36641"],"selectedPollIds":["30506"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"117","pollster":"Glengariff Group","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":14.9,"signedError":-5.913606,"selectedQuestionIds":["36598"],"selectedPollIds":["30470"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-6.813606,"selectedQuestionIds":["37151"],"selectedPollIds":["30795"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-7.813606,"selectedQuestionIds":["36855"],"selectedPollIds":["30637"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-8.813606,"selectedQuestionIds":["36982"],"selectedPollIds":["30698"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1484","race":"2012_Sen-G_MN","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Amy Klobuchar","republican":"Kurt Patrick Bills","pollDem":61.75,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":32.75,"actualDem":65.228983,"actualRep":30.527992,"actualMargin":34.700991,"actualDRShare":95.756974,"signedError":-1.950991,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.950991,"individualPollMAE":6.100495,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":34.700991,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":43.0,"signedError":8.299009,"selectedQuestionIds":["36563"],"selectedPollIds":["30384"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":-4.700991,"selectedQuestionIds":["137271"],"selectedPollIds":["73239"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":-4.700991,"selectedQuestionIds":["37039"],"selectedPollIds":["30735"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":-6.700991,"selectedQuestionIds":["36980"],"selectedPollIds":["30697"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1486","race":"2012_Sen-G_MO","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Claire McCaskill","republican":"Todd Akin","pollDem":49.6,"pollRep":41.533333,"pollMargin":8.066667,"actualDem":54.814324,"actualRep":39.113718,"actualMargin":15.700605,"actualDRShare":93.928042,"signedError":-7.633939,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.633939,"individualPollMAE":7.633939,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.700605,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"162","pollster":"Kiley & Company","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-1.700605,"selectedQuestionIds":["36406"],"selectedPollIds":["30363"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-13.700605,"selectedQuestionIds":["36426"],"selectedPollIds":["30360"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-11.700605,"selectedQuestionIds":["36952"],"selectedPollIds":["30683"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-0.700605,"selectedQuestionIds":["37041"],"selectedPollIds":["30736"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":3.4,"signedError":-12.300605,"selectedQuestionIds":["36649"],"selectedPollIds":["30512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-5.700605,"selectedQuestionIds":["36964"],"selectedPollIds":["30689"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1487","race":"2012_Sen-G_MT","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Jon Tester","republican":"Denny Rehberg","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":46.5,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":48.578382,"actualRep":44.860369,"actualMargin":3.718014,"actualDRShare":93.438751,"signedError":-3.718014,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.718014,"individualPollMAE":3.718014,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.718014,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.718014,"selectedQuestionIds":["37177"],"selectedPollIds":["30812"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-7.718014,"selectedQuestionIds":["137112"],"selectedPollIds":["51340"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.718014,"selectedQuestionIds":["36948"],"selectedPollIds":["30681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.718014,"selectedQuestionIds":["36944"],"selectedPollIds":["30580"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1488","race":"2012_Sen-G_NE","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Bob Kerrey","republican":"Deb Fischer","pollDem":42.55,"pollRep":53.4,"pollMargin":-10.85,"actualDem":42.225567,"actualRep":57.774433,"actualMargin":-15.548866,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":4.698866,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.698866,"individualPollMAE":4.924433,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.548866,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":3.548866,"selectedQuestionIds":["36665"],"selectedPollIds":["30521"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-0.451134,"selectedQuestionIds":["137246"],"selectedPollIds":["73231"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":-12.4,"signedError":3.148866,"selectedQuestionIds":["36771"],"selectedPollIds":["30581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"382","pollster":"Wiese Research Associates","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":12.548866,"selectedQuestionIds":["36461"],"selectedPollIds":["51308"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1489","race":"2012_Sen-G_NV","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Shelley Berkley","republican":"Dean Heller","pollDem":43.166667,"pollRep":47.5,"pollMargin":-4.333333,"actualDem":44.70613,"actualRep":45.866276,"actualMargin":-1.160147,"actualDRShare":90.572406,"signedError":-3.173187,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.173187,"individualPollMAE":3.226569,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.160147,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.160147,"selectedQuestionIds":["36521"],"selectedPollIds":["30433"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.839853,"selectedQuestionIds":["36344"],"selectedPollIds":["30314"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.839853,"selectedQuestionIds":["37095"],"selectedPollIds":["30755"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-3.839853,"selectedQuestionIds":["36320"],"selectedPollIds":["30266"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-4.839853,"selectedQuestionIds":["36662"],"selectedPollIds":["30492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-7.839853,"selectedQuestionIds":["36998"],"selectedPollIds":["30706"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"149","race":"2018_Gov-G_MN","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Tim Walz","republican":"Jeff Johnson","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":39.5,"pollMargin":10.5,"actualDem":53.843891,"actualRep":42.426874,"actualMargin":11.417017,"actualDRShare":96.270765,"signedError":-0.917017,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.917017,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":11.417017,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":0.582983,"selectedQuestionIds":["91525"],"selectedPollIds":["56797"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-5.417017,"selectedQuestionIds":["91409"],"selectedPollIds":["56739"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"312","pollster":"St. Cloud State University","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":4.582983,"selectedQuestionIds":["124506"],"selectedPollIds":["66738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-3.417017,"selectedQuestionIds":["91236"],"selectedPollIds":["56652"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1490","race":"2012_Sen-G_NJ","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Robert Menendez","republican":"Joe Kyrillos","pollDem":50.5,"pollRep":34.0,"pollMargin":16.5,"actualDem":58.865461,"actualRep":39.374362,"actualMargin":19.491099,"actualDRShare":98.239823,"signedError":-2.991099,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.991099,"individualPollMAE":2.991099,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":19.491099,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"119","pollster":"Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer)","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-1.491099,"selectedQuestionIds":["36575"],"selectedPollIds":["30357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-4.491099,"selectedQuestionIds":["36978"],"selectedPollIds":["30696"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1491","race":"2012_Sen-G_NM","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Martin Heinrich","republican":"Heather A. Wilson","pollDem":49.8,"pollRep":43.2,"pollMargin":6.6,"actualDem":51.008065,"actualRep":45.277542,"actualMargin":5.730523,"actualDRShare":96.285607,"signedError":0.869477,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.869477,"individualPollMAE":3.161686,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.730523,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"109","pollster":"GBAO","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":4.269477,"selectedQuestionIds":["136901"],"selectedPollIds":["72983"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.730523,"selectedQuestionIds":["137249"],"selectedPollIds":["30671"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":2.269477,"selectedQuestionIds":["36395"],"selectedPollIds":["30355"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":2.269477,"selectedQuestionIds":["36531"],"selectedPollIds":["30386"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":1.269477,"selectedQuestionIds":["36976"],"selectedPollIds":["30695"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1492","race":"2012_Sen-G_NY","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Kirsten E. Gillibrand","republican":"Wendy E. Long","pollDem":64.0,"pollRep":25.0,"pollMargin":39.0,"actualDem":67.572423,"actualRep":24.667104,"actualMargin":42.90532,"actualDRShare":92.239527,"signedError":-3.90532,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.90532,"individualPollMAE":3.96844,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":40.825458,"outcomeMarginCorrection":2.079861,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":43.0,"signedError":0.09468,"selectedQuestionIds":["36375"],"selectedPollIds":["30337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":42.0,"signedError":-0.90532,"selectedQuestionIds":["36419"],"selectedPollIds":["30372"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":32.0,"signedError":-10.90532,"selectedQuestionIds":["36974"],"selectedPollIds":["30694"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1493","race":"2012_Sen-G_ND","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ND","democrat":"Heidi Heitkamp","republican":"Rick Berg","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":45.5,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":50.238211,"actualRep":49.323979,"actualMargin":0.914232,"actualDRShare":99.56219,"signedError":0.085768,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.085768,"individualPollMAE":3.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.914232,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.914232,"selectedQuestionIds":["36582"],"selectedPollIds":["30465"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.085768,"selectedQuestionIds":["137134"],"selectedPollIds":["73146"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"1494","race":"2012_Sen-G_OH","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Sherrod Brown","republican":"Josh Mandel","pollDem":49.185714,"pollRep":44.635714,"pollMargin":4.55,"actualDem":50.700695,"actualRep":44.700018,"actualMargin":6.000678,"actualDRShare":95.400713,"signedError":-1.450678,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.450678,"individualPollMAE":3.150194,"n":14,"pollsters":14,"sourceQuestions":22,"selectedQuestions":14,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.000678,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.000678,"selectedQuestionIds":["37149"],"selectedPollIds":["30794"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"55","pollster":"Clout Research","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-11.000678,"selectedQuestionIds":["37208"],"selectedPollIds":["30557"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.000678,"selectedQuestionIds":["36931"],"selectedPollIds":["30673"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-5.000678,"selectedQuestionIds":["36469"],"selectedPollIds":["30400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":2.999322,"selectedQuestionIds":["37132"],"selectedPollIds":["30783"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-1.000678,"selectedQuestionIds":["36834"],"selectedPollIds":["30627"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":3.999322,"selectedQuestionIds":["37048"],"selectedPollIds":["30741"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":2.999322,"selectedQuestionIds":["36605"],"selectedPollIds":["30483"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":0.999322,"selectedQuestionIds":["36863"],"selectedPollIds":["30642"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-6.000678,"selectedQuestionIds":["36846"],"selectedPollIds":["30588"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-3.000678,"selectedQuestionIds":["37103"],"selectedPollIds":["30761"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":3.8,"signedError":-2.200678,"selectedQuestionIds":["37123"],"selectedPollIds":["30777"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-4.000678,"selectedQuestionIds":["36996"],"selectedPollIds":["30705"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":6.9,"signedError":0.899322,"selectedQuestionIds":["150623"],"selectedPollIds":["30805"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1495","race":"2012_Sen-G_PA","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Robert P. Casey Jr.","republican":"Tom Smith","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":6.0,"actualDem":53.69002,"actualRep":44.587593,"actualMargin":9.102427,"actualDRShare":98.277613,"signedError":-3.102427,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.102427,"individualPollMAE":3.681942,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.102427,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-2.102427,"selectedQuestionIds":["37118"],"selectedPollIds":["30774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-0.102427,"selectedQuestionIds":["36609"],"selectedPollIds":["30485"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"119","pollster":"Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer)","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-2.102427,"selectedQuestionIds":["36397"],"selectedPollIds":["30356"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"134","pollster":"Harstad Strategic Research","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":2.897573,"selectedQuestionIds":["136972"],"selectedPollIds":["73039"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-3.102427,"selectedQuestionIds":["36939"],"selectedPollIds":["30678"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-1.102427,"selectedQuestionIds":["36915"],"selectedPollIds":["30665"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-8.102427,"selectedQuestionIds":["36872"],"selectedPollIds":["30648"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-8.102427,"selectedQuestionIds":["36366"],"selectedPollIds":["30294"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-8.102427,"selectedQuestionIds":["36928"],"selectedPollIds":["30631"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-1.102427,"selectedQuestionIds":["36972"],"selectedPollIds":["30693"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1496","race":"2012_Sen-G_RI","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Sheldon Whitehouse","republican":"Barry Hinckley","pollDem":54.6,"pollRep":33.3,"pollMargin":21.3,"actualDem":64.811365,"actualRep":34.96553,"actualMargin":29.845835,"actualDRShare":99.776895,"signedError":-8.545835,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.545835,"individualPollMAE":8.545835,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-26","2012-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":29.845835,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":21.3,"signedError":-8.545835,"selectedQuestionIds":["36704"],"selectedPollIds":["30488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1497","race":"2012_Sen-G_TN","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Mark E. Clayton","republican":"Bob Corker","pollDem":29.0,"pollRep":62.0,"pollMargin":-33.0,"actualDem":30.40659,"actualRep":64.891575,"actualMargin":-34.484985,"actualDRShare":95.298166,"signedError":1.484985,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.484985,"individualPollMAE":1.484985,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-11-02","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-34.484985,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":1.484985,"selectedQuestionIds":["36966"],"selectedPollIds":["30690"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1498","race":"2012_Sen-G_TX","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Paul Sadler","republican":"Ted Cruz","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-21.0,"actualDem":40.623005,"actualRep":56.455658,"actualMargin":-15.832653,"actualDRShare":97.078662,"signedError":-5.167347,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.167347,"individualPollMAE":5.167347,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-11-02","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.832653,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-5.167347,"selectedQuestionIds":["36968"],"selectedPollIds":["30691"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1499","race":"2012_Sen-G_UT","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Scott N. Howell","republican":"Orrin G. Hatch","pollDem":26.0,"pollRep":63.0,"pollMargin":-37.0,"actualDem":29.980405,"actualRep":65.310095,"actualMargin":-35.32969,"actualDRShare":95.2905,"signedError":-1.67031,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.67031,"individualPollMAE":1.67031,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-35.32969,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-37.0,"signedError":-1.67031,"selectedQuestionIds":["36848"],"selectedPollIds":["30618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"15","race":"2014_Sen-G_KY","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Alison Lundergan Grimes","republican":"Mitch McConnell","pollDem":42.25,"pollRep":49.5,"pollMargin":-7.25,"actualDem":40.720874,"actualRep":56.188104,"actualMargin":-15.46723,"actualDRShare":96.908978,"signedError":8.21723,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.21723,"individualPollMAE":8.21723,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2014-10-26","2014-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.46723,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":6.46723,"selectedQuestionIds":["42138"],"selectedPollIds":["34422"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":8.46723,"selectedQuestionIds":["42179"],"selectedPollIds":["34441"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":7.46723,"selectedQuestionIds":["125180"],"selectedPollIds":["34407"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":10.46723,"selectedQuestionIds":["42188"],"selectedPollIds":["34444"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1501","race":"2012_Sen-G_VA","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Tim Kaine","republican":"George F. Allen","pollDem":48.183333,"pollRep":46.625,"pollMargin":1.558333,"actualDem":52.865949,"actualRep":46.960809,"actualMargin":5.90514,"actualDRShare":99.826758,"signedError":-4.346807,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.346807,"individualPollMAE":4.545093,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":18,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.90514,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":1.09486,"selectedQuestionIds":["36443"],"selectedPollIds":["30374"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-7.90514,"selectedQuestionIds":["36413"],"selectedPollIds":["30369"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.90514,"selectedQuestionIds":["37128"],"selectedPollIds":["30781"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.90514,"selectedQuestionIds":["37055"],"selectedPollIds":["30746"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.09486,"selectedQuestionIds":["37050"],"selectedPollIds":["30742"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.90514,"selectedQuestionIds":["36607"],"selectedPollIds":["30484"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.90514,"selectedQuestionIds":["36876"],"selectedPollIds":["30646"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-10.90514,"selectedQuestionIds":["36600"],"selectedPollIds":["30481"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.90514,"selectedQuestionIds":["37145"],"selectedPollIds":["30791"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":-0.8,"signedError":-6.70514,"selectedQuestionIds":["137770"],"selectedPollIds":["30593"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.90514,"selectedQuestionIds":["37002"],"selectedPollIds":["30708"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":1.5,"signedError":-4.40514,"selectedQuestionIds":["150619"],"selectedPollIds":["77904"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1502","race":"2012_Sen-G_WA","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Maria Cantwell","republican":"Michael Baumgartner","pollDem":57.933333,"pollRep":36.766667,"pollMargin":21.166667,"actualDem":60.450991,"actualRep":39.549009,"actualMargin":20.901982,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.264684,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.264684,"individualPollMAE":4.133994,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":20.901982,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-2.901982,"selectedQuestionIds":["36910"],"selectedPollIds":["30662"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"364","pollster":"University of Washington Center for Survey Research","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":27.5,"signedError":6.598018,"selectedQuestionIds":["36732"],"selectedPollIds":["30562"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-2.901982,"selectedQuestionIds":["36970"],"selectedPollIds":["30692"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1504","race":"2012_Sen-G_WI","series":"senate","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Tammy Baldwin","republican":"Tommy Thompson","pollDem":47.590909,"pollRep":46.663636,"pollMargin":0.927273,"actualDem":51.408864,"actualRep":45.860336,"actualMargin":5.548528,"actualDRShare":97.2692,"signedError":-4.621255,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.621255,"individualPollMAE":4.621255,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2012-10-27","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.548528,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.548528,"selectedQuestionIds":["37092"],"selectedPollIds":["30753"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"55","pollster":"Clout Research","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-7.548528,"selectedQuestionIds":["36725"],"selectedPollIds":["30556"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"93","pollster":"Feldman Group","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.548528,"selectedQuestionIds":["37193"],"selectedPollIds":["30820"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.548528,"selectedQuestionIds":["36696"],"selectedPollIds":["30534"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.548528,"selectedQuestionIds":["36756"],"selectedPollIds":["30500"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.548528,"selectedQuestionIds":["36917"],"selectedPollIds":["30666"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-6.548528,"selectedQuestionIds":["36866"],"selectedPollIds":["30644"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.548528,"selectedQuestionIds":["36776"],"selectedPollIds":["30536"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"313","pollster":"St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-8.548528,"selectedQuestionIds":["36723"],"selectedPollIds":["30554"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":2.2,"signedError":-3.348528,"selectedQuestionIds":["137771"],"selectedPollIds":["30592"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.548528,"selectedQuestionIds":["36994"],"selectedPollIds":["30704"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1507","race":"2010_Sen-G_AK","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Scott T. McAdams","republican":"Joe Miller","pollDem":25.475,"pollRep":30.025,"pollMargin":-4.55,"actualDem":23.500703,"actualRep":35.553007,"actualMargin":-12.052305,"actualDRShare":59.05371,"signedError":7.502305,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.502305,"individualPollMAE":7.502305,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-12.052305,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"79","pollster":"Dittman Research","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":8.052305,"selectedQuestionIds":["39338"],"selectedPollIds":["32742"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"136","pollster":"Hays Research Group","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-1.2,"signedError":10.852305,"selectedQuestionIds":["39436"],"selectedPollIds":["32840"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"137","pollster":"Hellenthal & Associates","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":6.052305,"selectedQuestionIds":["39437"],"selectedPollIds":["32841"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":5.052305,"selectedQuestionIds":["39395"],"selectedPollIds":["32799"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1508","race":"2010_Sen-G_AZ","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Rodney Britz Glassman","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":34.651246,"actualRep":58.860077,"actualMargin":-24.208831,"actualDRShare":93.511323,"signedError":5.208831,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.208831,"individualPollMAE":5.208831,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-24.208831,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":6.208831,"selectedQuestionIds":["39252"],"selectedPollIds":["32656"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":4.208831,"selectedQuestionIds":["39356"],"selectedPollIds":["32760"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1509","race":"2010_Sen-G_AR","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Blanche Lincoln","republican":"John Boozman","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":36.945114,"actualRep":57.902936,"actualMargin":-20.957822,"actualDRShare":94.848049,"signedError":1.957822,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.957822,"individualPollMAE":1.957822,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-28","2010-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.957822,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":1.957822,"selectedQuestionIds":["39381"],"selectedPollIds":["32785"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"151","race":"2018_Gov-G_NV","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Steve Sisolak","republican":"Adam Paul Laxalt","pollDem":45.78,"pollRep":45.36,"pollMargin":0.42,"actualDem":49.39365,"actualRep":45.309781,"actualMargin":4.083869,"actualDRShare":94.703431,"signedError":-3.663869,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.663869,"individualPollMAE":3.663869,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":4.083869,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.083869,"selectedQuestionIds":["91486"],"selectedPollIds":["56778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.083869,"selectedQuestionIds":["91294"],"selectedPollIds":["56683"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":0.2,"signedError":-3.883869,"selectedQuestionIds":["91589"],"selectedPollIds":["56831"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.083869,"selectedQuestionIds":["91124"],"selectedPollIds":["56601"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":-2.1,"signedError":-6.183869,"selectedQuestionIds":["91368"],"selectedPollIds":["56723"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1510","race":"2010_Sen-G_CA","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Barbara Boxer","republican":"Carly Fiorina","pollDem":49.333333,"pollRep":43.111111,"pollMargin":6.222222,"actualDem":52.183575,"actualRep":42.172985,"actualMargin":10.01059,"actualDRShare":94.35656,"signedError":-3.788368,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.788368,"individualPollMAE":3.788368,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.01059,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-3.01059,"selectedQuestionIds":["39409"],"selectedPollIds":["32813"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-5.01059,"selectedQuestionIds":["39293"],"selectedPollIds":["32697"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.01059,"selectedQuestionIds":["39315"],"selectedPollIds":["32719"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.01059,"selectedQuestionIds":["39399"],"selectedPollIds":["32803"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-7.01059,"selectedQuestionIds":["39308"],"selectedPollIds":["32712"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.01059,"selectedQuestionIds":["39271"],"selectedPollIds":["32675"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.01059,"selectedQuestionIds":["39431"],"selectedPollIds":["32835"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"340","pollster":"Tulchin Research","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.01059,"selectedQuestionIds":["39443"],"selectedPollIds":["32847"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.01059,"selectedQuestionIds":["39425"],"selectedPollIds":["32829"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1511","race":"2010_Sen-G_CO","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Michael Bennet","republican":"Ken Buck","pollDem":46.125,"pollRep":47.5,"pollMargin":-1.375,"actualDem":48.050371,"actualRep":46.422022,"actualMargin":1.628349,"actualDRShare":94.472393,"signedError":-3.003349,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.003349,"individualPollMAE":3.003349,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.628349,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-2.628349,"selectedQuestionIds":["39296"],"selectedPollIds":["32700"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-4.628349,"selectedQuestionIds":["39187"],"selectedPollIds":["32591"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-5.628349,"selectedQuestionIds":["39347"],"selectedPollIds":["32751"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-2.628349,"selectedQuestionIds":["39397"],"selectedPollIds":["32801"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"271","pollster":"RBI Strategies & Research","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-0.628349,"selectedQuestionIds":["39287"],"selectedPollIds":["32691"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-5.628349,"selectedQuestionIds":["39403"],"selectedPollIds":["42410"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.628349,"selectedQuestionIds":["39241"],"selectedPollIds":["32645"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-0.628349,"selectedQuestionIds":["39358"],"selectedPollIds":["32762"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1512","race":"2010_Sen-G_CT","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Richard Blumenthal","republican":"Linda McMahon","pollDem":53.616667,"pollRep":43.133333,"pollMargin":10.483333,"actualDem":55.158419,"actualRep":43.216938,"actualMargin":11.94148,"actualDRShare":98.375357,"signedError":-1.458147,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.458147,"individualPollMAE":3.477654,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.267332,"outcomeMarginCorrection":2.674148,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-3.94148,"selectedQuestionIds":["39310"],"selectedPollIds":["32714"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-0.94148,"selectedQuestionIds":["39384"],"selectedPollIds":["32788"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-2.94148,"selectedQuestionIds":["39413"],"selectedPollIds":["32817"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-4.94148,"selectedQuestionIds":["39406"],"selectedPollIds":["32810"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":6.05852,"selectedQuestionIds":["39222"],"selectedPollIds":["32626"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":9.9,"signedError":-2.04148,"selectedQuestionIds":["39361"],"selectedPollIds":["32764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1513","race":"2010_Sen-GS_DE","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"GS","location":"DE","democrat":"Christopher A. Coons","republican":"Christine O'Donnell","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":38.5,"pollMargin":15.5,"actualDem":56.607309,"actualRep":40.029993,"actualMargin":16.577316,"actualDRShare":96.637302,"signedError":-1.077316,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.077316,"individualPollMAE":5.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.577316,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":4.422684,"selectedQuestionIds":["39307"],"selectedPollIds":["32711"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-6.577316,"selectedQuestionIds":["137144"],"selectedPollIds":["51709"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1514","race":"2010_Sen-G_FL","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Kendrick B. Meek","republican":"Marco Rubio","pollDem":18.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-28.0,"actualDem":20.198015,"actualRep":48.894681,"actualMargin":-28.696666,"actualDRShare":69.092696,"signedError":0.696666,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.696666,"individualPollMAE":3.232222,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-28.696666,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":2.696666,"selectedQuestionIds":["39435"],"selectedPollIds":["1066"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":1.696666,"selectedQuestionIds":["39429"],"selectedPollIds":["32833"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-34.0,"signedError":-5.303334,"selectedQuestionIds":["39343"],"selectedPollIds":["32747"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":0.696666,"selectedQuestionIds":["39427"],"selectedPollIds":["32831"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-31.0,"signedError":-2.303334,"selectedQuestionIds":["39422"],"selectedPollIds":["32826"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":6.696666,"selectedQuestionIds":["39246"],"selectedPollIds":["32650"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1515","race":"2010_Sen-G_GA","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Michael Thurmond","republican":"Johnny Isakson","pollDem":32.75,"pollRep":57.2,"pollMargin":-24.45,"actualDem":38.998645,"actualRep":58.30738,"actualMargin":-19.308735,"actualDRShare":97.306025,"signedError":-5.141265,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.141265,"individualPollMAE":5.141265,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.308735,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-20.8,"signedError":-1.491265,"selectedQuestionIds":["39229"],"selectedPollIds":["32633"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":-3.691265,"selectedQuestionIds":["39382"],"selectedPollIds":["32786"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":-10.691265,"selectedQuestionIds":["39301"],"selectedPollIds":["32705"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-4.691265,"selectedQuestionIds":["39249"],"selectedPollIds":["32653"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1516","race":"2010_Sen-G_HI","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Daniel K. Inouye","republican":"Cam Cavasso","pollDem":62.7,"pollRep":30.6,"pollMargin":32.1,"actualDem":74.808612,"actualRep":21.571146,"actualMargin":53.237466,"actualDRShare":96.379758,"signedError":-21.137466,"absoluteAverageMiss":21.137466,"individualPollMAE":21.137466,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":53.237466,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":32.1,"signedError":-21.137466,"selectedQuestionIds":["137137"],"selectedPollIds":["51744"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1517","race":"2010_Sen-G_ID","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Tom Sullivan","republican":"Mike Crapo","pollDem":20.0,"pollRep":64.0,"pollMargin":-44.0,"actualDem":24.927591,"actualRep":71.175005,"actualMargin":-46.247414,"actualDRShare":96.102596,"signedError":2.247414,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.247414,"individualPollMAE":2.247414,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-46.247414,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":-44.0,"signedError":2.247414,"selectedQuestionIds":["39257"],"selectedPollIds":["32661"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"152","race":"2018_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Molly M. Kelly","republican":"Chris Sununu","pollDem":45.1,"pollRep":47.866667,"pollMargin":-2.766667,"actualDem":45.738857,"actualRep":52.78294,"actualMargin":-7.044083,"actualDRShare":98.521797,"signedError":4.277416,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.277416,"individualPollMAE":4.448028,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-7.044083,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":6.044083,"selectedQuestionIds":["91306"],"selectedPollIds":["56691"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-7.3,"signedError":-0.255917,"selectedQuestionIds":["91109"],"selectedPollIds":["56598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":7.044083,"selectedQuestionIds":["91443"],"selectedPollIds":["56759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1520","race":"2010_Sen-G_IN","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Brad Ellsworth","republican":"Daniel Coats","pollDem":33.666667,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-19.333333,"actualDem":39.999003,"actualRep":54.578754,"actualMargin":-14.579752,"actualDRShare":94.577757,"signedError":-4.753582,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.753582,"individualPollMAE":4.753582,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-23"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.579752,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-3.420248,"selectedQuestionIds":["39236"],"selectedPollIds":["32640"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-3.420248,"selectedQuestionIds":["39244"],"selectedPollIds":["32648"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-7.420248,"selectedQuestionIds":["39277"],"selectedPollIds":["32681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1521","race":"2010_Sen-G_IA","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Roxanne Conlin","republican":"Chuck Grassley","pollDem":30.0,"pollRep":61.0,"pollMargin":-31.0,"actualDem":33.303317,"actualRep":64.35255,"actualMargin":-31.049233,"actualDRShare":97.655867,"signedError":0.049233,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.049233,"individualPollMAE":0.049233,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-28","2010-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-31.049233,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-31.0,"signedError":0.049233,"selectedQuestionIds":["39380"],"selectedPollIds":["32784"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1522","race":"2010_Sen-G_KS","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Lisa Johnston","republican":"Jerry Moran","pollDem":26.0,"pollRep":66.0,"pollMargin":-40.0,"actualDem":26.37855,"actualRep":70.094378,"actualMargin":-43.715829,"actualDRShare":96.472928,"signedError":3.715829,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.715829,"individualPollMAE":3.715829,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-43.715829,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-40.0,"signedError":3.715829,"selectedQuestionIds":["39326"],"selectedPollIds":["32730"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1523","race":"2010_Sen-G_KY","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Jack Conway","republican":"Rand Paul","pollDem":41.666667,"pollRep":51.416667,"pollMargin":-9.75,"actualDem":44.24849,"actualRep":55.726586,"actualMargin":-11.478096,"actualDRShare":99.975076,"signedError":1.728096,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.728096,"individualPollMAE":3.076032,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.478096,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":4.478096,"selectedQuestionIds":["39297"],"selectedPollIds":["32701"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"33","pollster":"Braun Research","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-7.5,"signedError":3.978096,"selectedQuestionIds":["39314"],"selectedPollIds":["32718"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-3.521904,"selectedQuestionIds":["39383"],"selectedPollIds":["32787"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-0.521904,"selectedQuestionIds":["39318"],"selectedPollIds":["32722"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":2.478096,"selectedQuestionIds":["39312"],"selectedPollIds":["32716"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":3.478096,"selectedQuestionIds":["39362"],"selectedPollIds":["32766"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1525","race":"2010_Sen-G_MD","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Barbara A. Mikulski","republican":"Eric Wargotz","pollDem":60.0,"pollRep":32.5,"pollMargin":27.5,"actualDem":62.192983,"actualRep":35.753368,"actualMargin":26.439615,"actualDRShare":97.946351,"signedError":1.060385,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.060385,"individualPollMAE":9.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":26.439615,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":37.0,"signedError":10.560385,"selectedQuestionIds":["39288"],"selectedPollIds":["32692"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-8.439615,"selectedQuestionIds":["39275"],"selectedPollIds":["32679"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1527","race":"2010_Sen-G_MO","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Robin Carnahan","republican":"Roy Blunt","pollDem":41.55,"pollRep":52.1,"pollMargin":-10.55,"actualDem":40.626391,"actualRep":54.229155,"actualMargin":-13.602764,"actualDRShare":94.855545,"signedError":3.052764,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.052764,"individualPollMAE":3.052764,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-13.602764,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":4.602764,"selectedQuestionIds":["39233"],"selectedPollIds":["32637"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"212","pollster":"Missouri State University Center for Social Science and Public Policy Research","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-13.1,"signedError":0.502764,"selectedQuestionIds":["39313"],"selectedPollIds":["32717"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":4.602764,"selectedQuestionIds":["39213"],"selectedPollIds":["32617"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-11.1,"signedError":2.502764,"selectedQuestionIds":["39365"],"selectedPollIds":["32768"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1528","race":"2010_Sen-G_NV","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Harry Reid","republican":"Sharron Angle","pollDem":44.633333,"pollRep":47.95,"pollMargin":-3.316667,"actualDem":50.288743,"actualRep":44.546606,"actualMargin":5.742136,"actualDRShare":94.835349,"signedError":-9.058803,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.058803,"individualPollMAE":9.058803,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.742136,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-9.742136,"selectedQuestionIds":["39298"],"selectedPollIds":["32702"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-9.742136,"selectedQuestionIds":["39319"],"selectedPollIds":["32723"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-6.742136,"selectedQuestionIds":["39400"],"selectedPollIds":["1065"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-8.742136,"selectedQuestionIds":["39404"],"selectedPollIds":["32808"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-7.742136,"selectedQuestionIds":["39385"],"selectedPollIds":["32789"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-5.9,"signedError":-11.642136,"selectedQuestionIds":["39459"],"selectedPollIds":["32863"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1529","race":"2010_Sen-G_NH","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Paul W. Hodes","republican":"Kelly Ayotte","pollDem":37.775,"pollRep":55.45,"pollMargin":-17.675,"actualDem":36.846562,"actualRep":60.086209,"actualMargin":-23.239647,"actualDRShare":96.93277,"signedError":5.564647,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.564647,"individualPollMAE":5.564647,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-23.239647,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":8.239647,"selectedQuestionIds":["39335"],"selectedPollIds":["1075"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":8.239647,"selectedQuestionIds":["39371"],"selectedPollIds":["32775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":5.239647,"selectedQuestionIds":["39433"],"selectedPollIds":["32837"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":-22.7,"signedError":0.539647,"selectedQuestionIds":["39460"],"selectedPollIds":["32864"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"153","race":"2018_Gov-G_NM","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Michelle Lujan Grisham","republican":"Stevan Pearce","pollDem":52.46,"pollRep":43.44,"pollMargin":9.02,"actualDem":57.19906,"actualRep":42.80094,"actualMargin":14.39812,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.37812,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.37812,"individualPollMAE":5.37812,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2018-10-24","2018-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":14.39812,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"450","pollster":"Carroll Strategies","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":5.1,"signedError":-9.29812,"selectedQuestionIds":["91220"],"selectedPollIds":["56642"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-5.39812,"selectedQuestionIds":["90902"],"selectedPollIds":["56508"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2018-10-24","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-5.39812,"selectedQuestionIds":["90893"],"selectedPollIds":["56503"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-4.39812,"selectedQuestionIds":["91393"],"selectedPollIds":["56732"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-2.39812,"selectedQuestionIds":["91531"],"selectedPollIds":["56803"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1530","race":"2010_Sen-G_NY","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Charles E. Schumer","republican":"Jay Townsend","pollDem":61.428571,"pollRep":33.142857,"pollMargin":28.285714,"actualDem":63.978686,"actualRep":31.075869,"actualMargin":32.902818,"actualDRShare":95.054555,"signedError":-4.617103,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.617103,"individualPollMAE":4.617103,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":37.957879,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-5.055061,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":-6.902818,"selectedQuestionIds":["39410"],"selectedPollIds":["32814"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":-8.902818,"selectedQuestionIds":["39366"],"selectedPollIds":["32773"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":32.0,"signedError":-0.902818,"selectedQuestionIds":["39280"],"selectedPollIds":["32684"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":-4.902818,"selectedQuestionIds":["39224"],"selectedPollIds":["32622"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":32.0,"signedError":-0.902818,"selectedQuestionIds":["39377"],"selectedPollIds":["32781"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":-2.902818,"selectedQuestionIds":["39378"],"selectedPollIds":["32778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":-6.902818,"selectedQuestionIds":["39415"],"selectedPollIds":["32818"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1531","race":"2010_Sen-GS_NY","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"GS","location":"NY","democrat":"Kirsten E. Gillibrand","republican":"Joseph J. DioGuardi","pollDem":56.585714,"pollRep":36.071429,"pollMargin":20.514286,"actualDem":59.644845,"actualRep":33.266381,"actualMargin":26.378463,"actualDRShare":92.911226,"signedError":-5.864178,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.864178,"individualPollMAE":5.864178,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":31.515154,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-5.136691,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-5.378463,"selectedQuestionIds":["39411"],"selectedPollIds":["32814"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-11.378463,"selectedQuestionIds":["39367"],"selectedPollIds":["32773"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":-3.378463,"selectedQuestionIds":["39279"],"selectedPollIds":["32684"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-5.378463,"selectedQuestionIds":["39218"],"selectedPollIds":["32622"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-6.378463,"selectedQuestionIds":["39373"],"selectedPollIds":["32781"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-6.378463,"selectedQuestionIds":["39374"],"selectedPollIds":["32778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":23.6,"signedError":-2.778463,"selectedQuestionIds":["39414"],"selectedPollIds":["32818"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1532","race":"2010_Sen-G_NC","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Elaine Marshall","republican":"Richard Burr","pollDem":37.333333,"pollRep":49.666667,"pollMargin":-12.333333,"actualDem":43.046616,"actualRep":54.812132,"actualMargin":-11.765515,"actualDRShare":97.858748,"signedError":-0.567818,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.567818,"individualPollMAE":1.744828,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.765515,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-0.234485,"selectedQuestionIds":["39432"],"selectedPollIds":["32836"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-3.234485,"selectedQuestionIds":["39274"],"selectedPollIds":["32678"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"334","pollster":"The Tyson Group","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":1.765515,"selectedQuestionIds":["39258"],"selectedPollIds":["32662"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1534","race":"2010_Sen-G_OH","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Lee Fisher","republican":"Rob Portman","pollDem":37.73,"pollRep":54.96,"pollMargin":-17.23,"actualDem":39.403889,"actualRep":56.846299,"actualMargin":-17.442409,"actualDRShare":96.250188,"signedError":0.212409,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.212409,"individualPollMAE":2.83,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.442409,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":0.442409,"selectedQuestionIds":["39408"],"selectedPollIds":["32812"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":1.442409,"selectedQuestionIds":["39376"],"selectedPollIds":["32780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-0.557591,"selectedQuestionIds":["39375"],"selectedPollIds":["32779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-1.557591,"selectedQuestionIds":["39428"],"selectedPollIds":["32832"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-6.557591,"selectedQuestionIds":["39355"],"selectedPollIds":["32759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":2.442409,"selectedQuestionIds":["39303"],"selectedPollIds":["32707"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-3.557591,"selectedQuestionIds":["39412"],"selectedPollIds":["32816"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"383","pollster":"WPA Intelligence","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":6.442409,"selectedQuestionIds":["39259"],"selectedPollIds":["32663"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":4.442409,"selectedQuestionIds":["39421"],"selectedPollIds":["32824"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-18.3,"signedError":-0.857591,"selectedQuestionIds":["39461"],"selectedPollIds":["32865"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1536","race":"2010_Sen-G_OR","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Ron Wyden","republican":"Jim Huffman","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":18.0,"actualDem":57.224031,"actualRep":39.248836,"actualMargin":17.975195,"actualDRShare":96.472867,"signedError":0.024805,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.024805,"individualPollMAE":7.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":17.975195,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-6.975195,"selectedQuestionIds":["39309"],"selectedPollIds":["32713"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":7.024805,"selectedQuestionIds":["39344"],"selectedPollIds":["32748"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1537","race":"2010_Sen-G_PA","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Joe Sestak","republican":"Patrick J. Toomey","pollDem":44.5,"pollRep":48.8,"pollMargin":-4.3,"actualDem":48.991505,"actualRep":51.008495,"actualMargin":-2.016989,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.283011,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.283011,"individualPollMAE":2.689806,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.016989,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.983011,"selectedQuestionIds":["39291"],"selectedPollIds":["32696"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-5.983011,"selectedQuestionIds":["39283"],"selectedPollIds":["32685"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":2.016989,"selectedQuestionIds":["39268"],"selectedPollIds":["32672"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-4.983011,"selectedQuestionIds":["39348"],"selectedPollIds":["32752"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.983011,"selectedQuestionIds":["39430"],"selectedPollIds":["32834"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.983011,"selectedQuestionIds":["39396"],"selectedPollIds":["32800"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.983011,"selectedQuestionIds":["39424"],"selectedPollIds":["32828"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.983011,"selectedQuestionIds":["39336"],"selectedPollIds":["32740"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.016989,"selectedQuestionIds":["39379"],"selectedPollIds":["32783"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.983011,"selectedQuestionIds":["39418"],"selectedPollIds":["32822"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1538","race":"2010_Sen-G_SC","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Alvin Greene","republican":"Jim DeMint","pollDem":21.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-37.0,"actualDem":27.646319,"actualRep":61.478214,"actualMargin":-33.831895,"actualDRShare":89.124533,"signedError":-3.168105,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.168105,"individualPollMAE":3.168105,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-33.831895,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-37.0,"signedError":-3.168105,"selectedQuestionIds":["39250"],"selectedPollIds":["32654"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1540","race":"2010_Sen-G_UT","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Samuel Frank Granato","republican":"Mike Lee","pollDem":31.0,"pollRep":52.5,"pollMargin":-21.5,"actualDem":32.76182,"actualRep":61.583138,"actualMargin":-28.821318,"actualDRShare":94.344958,"signedError":7.321318,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.321318,"individualPollMAE":7.321318,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-26","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-28.821318,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":1.821318,"selectedQuestionIds":["39370"],"selectedPollIds":["32774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":12.821318,"selectedQuestionIds":["39346"],"selectedPollIds":["32750"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1542","race":"2010_Sen-G_WA","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Patty Murray","republican":"Dino Rossi","pollDem":49.033333,"pollRep":47.416667,"pollMargin":1.616667,"actualDem":52.364826,"actualRep":47.635174,"actualMargin":4.729652,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-3.112985,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.112985,"individualPollMAE":3.536434,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.729652,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.729652,"selectedQuestionIds":["39351"],"selectedPollIds":["32755"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-6.729652,"selectedQuestionIds":["39393"],"selectedPollIds":["32797"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.729652,"selectedQuestionIds":["39401"],"selectedPollIds":["32805"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-4.729652,"selectedQuestionIds":["39333"],"selectedPollIds":["32737"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"364","pollster":"University of Washington Center for Survey Research","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.270348,"selectedQuestionIds":["39337"],"selectedPollIds":["32741"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":2.7,"signedError":-2.029652,"selectedQuestionIds":["39389"],"selectedPollIds":["32793"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1543","race":"2010_Sen-GS_WV","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"GS","location":"WV","democrat":"Joe Manchin, III","republican":"John Raese","pollDem":49.666667,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":4.666667,"actualDem":53.46902,"actualRep":43.402938,"actualMargin":10.066082,"actualDRShare":96.871957,"signedError":-5.399415,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.399415,"individualPollMAE":5.399415,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.066082,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-5.066082,"selectedQuestionIds":["39230"],"selectedPollIds":["32634"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-5.066082,"selectedQuestionIds":["39394"],"selectedPollIds":["32798"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.066082,"selectedQuestionIds":["39407"],"selectedPollIds":["32811"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1544","race":"2010_Sen-G_WI","series":"senate","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Russ Feingold","republican":"Ron Johnson","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":50.857143,"pollMargin":-5.857143,"actualDem":47.019915,"actualRep":51.857547,"actualMargin":-4.837632,"actualDRShare":98.877463,"signedError":-1.019511,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.019511,"individualPollMAE":1.737481,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.837632,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"102","pollster":"Forward Strategies","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":0.837632,"selectedQuestionIds":["39434"],"selectedPollIds":["32838"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-2.162368,"selectedQuestionIds":["39354"],"selectedPollIds":["32758"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-4.162368,"selectedQuestionIds":["39334"],"selectedPollIds":["32738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-2.162368,"selectedQuestionIds":["39254"],"selectedPollIds":["32658"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"371","pollster":"Voter/Consumer Research","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":0.837632,"selectedQuestionIds":["39311"],"selectedPollIds":["32715"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"388","pollster":"Wood Communications Group","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":0.837632,"selectedQuestionIds":["159908"],"selectedPollIds":["79831"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-1.162368,"selectedQuestionIds":["39391"],"selectedPollIds":["32795"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1545","race":"2008_Sen-G_AL","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Vivian Davis Figures","republican":"Jeff Sessions","pollDem":29.0,"pollRep":59.5,"pollMargin":-30.5,"actualDem":36.520449,"actualRep":63.362232,"actualMargin":-26.841783,"actualDRShare":99.882681,"signedError":-3.658217,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.658217,"individualPollMAE":3.658217,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-26.841783,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":-6.158217,"selectedQuestionIds":["25291"],"selectedPollIds":["16607"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":-1.158217,"selectedQuestionIds":["25426"],"selectedPollIds":["16473"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1546","race":"2008_Sen-G_AK","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Mark Begich","republican":"Ted Stevens","pollDem":48.433333,"pollRep":42.666667,"pollMargin":5.766667,"actualDem":47.76708,"actualRep":46.522915,"actualMargin":1.244166,"actualDRShare":94.289995,"signedError":4.522501,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.522501,"individualPollMAE":4.522501,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.244166,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"136","pollster":"Hays Research Group","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":7.3,"signedError":6.055834,"selectedQuestionIds":["24861"],"selectedPollIds":["16413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":6.755834,"selectedQuestionIds":["25009"],"selectedPollIds":["16598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":0.755834,"selectedQuestionIds":["29431"],"selectedPollIds":["16449"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1548","race":"2008_Sen-G_CO","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Mark Udall","republican":"Bob Schaffer","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":38.875,"pollMargin":12.125,"actualDem":52.79563,"actualRep":42.492112,"actualMargin":10.303518,"actualDRShare":95.287742,"signedError":1.821482,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.821482,"individualPollMAE":3.473241,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.303518,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"27","pollster":"Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":2.696482,"selectedQuestionIds":["29306"],"selectedPollIds":["24059"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.303518,"selectedQuestionIds":["29310"],"selectedPollIds":["16576"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"812","pollster":"FTI Consulting","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":4.696482,"selectedQuestionIds":["24926"],"selectedPollIds":["16613"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":1.696482,"selectedQuestionIds":["24796"],"selectedPollIds":["16632"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.303518,"selectedQuestionIds":["24890"],"selectedPollIds":["16552"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":2.696482,"selectedQuestionIds":["117237"],"selectedPollIds":["63708"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":4.696482,"selectedQuestionIds":["24939"],"selectedPollIds":["16530"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":4.696482,"selectedQuestionIds":["25427"],"selectedPollIds":["16474"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1549","race":"2008_Sen-G_DE","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"DE","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Christine O'Donnell","pollDem":62.0,"pollRep":31.5,"pollMargin":30.5,"actualDem":64.686513,"actualRep":35.313487,"actualMargin":29.373025,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.126975,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.126975,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":29.373025,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":34.0,"signedError":4.626975,"selectedQuestionIds":["25296"],"selectedPollIds":["16608"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":27.0,"signedError":-2.373025,"selectedQuestionIds":["25428"],"selectedPollIds":["16466"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"155","race":"2018_Gov-G_OH","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Richard Cordray","republican":"Mike DeWine","pollDem":45.3,"pollRep":42.971429,"pollMargin":2.328571,"actualDem":46.682667,"actualRep":50.386628,"actualMargin":-3.703961,"actualDRShare":97.069295,"signedError":6.032533,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.032533,"individualPollMAE":6.032533,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-3.703961,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"401","pollster":"Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":-0.6,"signedError":3.103961,"selectedQuestionIds":["90970"],"selectedPollIds":["56541"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":8.703961,"selectedQuestionIds":["91572"],"selectedPollIds":["56818"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-0.2,"signedError":3.503961,"selectedQuestionIds":["91229"],"selectedPollIds":["56646"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":3.5,"signedError":7.203961,"selectedQuestionIds":["90974"],"selectedPollIds":["56544"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":8.703961,"selectedQuestionIds":["91255"],"selectedPollIds":["56661"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":3.703961,"selectedQuestionIds":["91532"],"selectedPollIds":["56804"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":3.6,"signedError":7.303961,"selectedQuestionIds":["91586"],"selectedPollIds":["56828"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1550","race":"2008_Sen-G_GA","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Jim Martin","republican":"Saxby Chambliss","pollDem":41.875,"pollRep":47.625,"pollMargin":-5.75,"actualDem":46.832779,"actualRep":49.756282,"actualMargin":-2.923503,"actualDRShare":96.58906,"signedError":-2.826497,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.826497,"individualPollMAE":3.057373,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.923503,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-6.076497,"selectedQuestionIds":["29311"],"selectedPollIds":["16584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.076497,"selectedQuestionIds":["24871"],"selectedPollIds":["16414"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-3.076497,"selectedQuestionIds":["24893"],"selectedPollIds":["16694"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-6.076497,"selectedQuestionIds":["29362"],"selectedPollIds":["24120"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.923503,"selectedQuestionIds":["24944"],"selectedPollIds":["16417"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.076497,"selectedQuestionIds":["25032"],"selectedPollIds":["16537"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.076497,"selectedQuestionIds":["25298"],"selectedPollIds":["16438"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-3.076497,"selectedQuestionIds":["25429"],"selectedPollIds":["16475"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1551","race":"2008_Sen-R_GA","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-12-02","raceKind":"R","location":"GA","democrat":"Jim Martin","republican":"Saxby Chambliss","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":50.25,"pollMargin":-4.25,"actualDem":42.560418,"actualRep":57.439582,"actualMargin":-14.879165,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":10.629165,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.629165,"individualPollMAE":10.629165,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-11-18","2008-11-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.879165,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2008-11-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":10.879165,"selectedQuestionIds":["117197"],"selectedPollIds":["24088"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2008-11-22","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":12.879165,"selectedQuestionIds":["117225"],"selectedPollIds":["24101"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-29","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":7.879165,"selectedQuestionIds":["117311"],"selectedPollIds":["24114"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-18","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":10.879165,"selectedQuestionIds":["117285"],"selectedPollIds":["24130"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1552","race":"2008_Sen-G_ID","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Larry LaRocco","republican":"James E. Risch","pollDem":32.0,"pollRep":50.5,"pollMargin":-18.5,"actualDem":34.105121,"actualRep":57.654394,"actualMargin":-23.549273,"actualDRShare":91.759515,"signedError":5.049273,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.049273,"individualPollMAE":6.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-23.549273,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"134","pollster":"Harstad Strategic Research","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":11.549273,"selectedQuestionIds":["24860"],"selectedPollIds":["16719"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-25.0,"signedError":-1.450727,"selectedQuestionIds":["25431"],"selectedPollIds":["16462"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1553","race":"2008_Sen-G_IL","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Richard J. Durbin","republican":"Steve Sauerberg","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":23.0,"actualDem":67.840951,"actualRep":28.530096,"actualMargin":39.310856,"actualDRShare":96.371047,"signedError":-16.310856,"absoluteAverageMiss":16.310856,"individualPollMAE":16.310856,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":39.310856,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":-16.310856,"selectedQuestionIds":["25432"],"selectedPollIds":["16488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1554","race":"2008_Sen-G_IA","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Tom Harkin","republican":"Christopher Reed","pollDem":57.75,"pollRep":35.75,"pollMargin":22.0,"actualDem":62.65578,"actualRep":37.261248,"actualMargin":25.394533,"actualDRShare":99.917028,"signedError":-3.394533,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.394533,"individualPollMAE":4.0,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-10-23","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":25.394533,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-9.394533,"selectedQuestionIds":["25042"],"selectedPollIds":["16701"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":0.605467,"selectedQuestionIds":["29393"],"selectedPollIds":["16503"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":0.605467,"selectedQuestionIds":["25302"],"selectedPollIds":["16572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-5.394533,"selectedQuestionIds":["25430"],"selectedPollIds":["16452"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1555","race":"2008_Sen-G_KS","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Jim Slattery","republican":"Pat Roberts","pollDem":32.5,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-25.5,"actualDem":36.458466,"actualRep":60.058396,"actualMargin":-23.599931,"actualDRShare":96.516862,"signedError":-1.900069,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.900069,"individualPollMAE":1.900069,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-23.599931,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":-3.400069,"selectedQuestionIds":["25305"],"selectedPollIds":["16605"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-0.400069,"selectedQuestionIds":["25433"],"selectedPollIds":["16453"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1556","race":"2008_Sen-G_KY","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Bruce Lunsford","republican":"Mitch McConnell","pollDem":43.6,"pollRep":49.4,"pollMargin":-5.8,"actualDem":47.03438,"actualRep":52.96562,"actualMargin":-5.931239,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.131239,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.131239,"individualPollMAE":1.813752,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.931239,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":3.931239,"selectedQuestionIds":["29322"],"selectedPollIds":["24075"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":0.931239,"selectedQuestionIds":["24894"],"selectedPollIds":["16558"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-1.068761,"selectedQuestionIds":["25058"],"selectedPollIds":["16563"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-2.068761,"selectedQuestionIds":["25309"],"selectedPollIds":["16447"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-1.068761,"selectedQuestionIds":["25434"],"selectedPollIds":["16454"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1558","race":"2008_Sen-G_ME","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Thomas H. Allen","republican":"Susan M. Collins","pollDem":39.333333,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-16.666667,"actualDem":38.583438,"actualRep":61.330977,"actualMargin":-22.747539,"actualDRShare":99.914415,"signedError":6.080873,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.080873,"individualPollMAE":6.080873,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-22.747539,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":6.747539,"selectedQuestionIds":["25075"],"selectedPollIds":["16443"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":8.747539,"selectedQuestionIds":["25318"],"selectedPollIds":["16507"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":2.747539,"selectedQuestionIds":["25437"],"selectedPollIds":["16455"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1559","race":"2008_Sen-G_MA","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"Jeffrey K. Beatty","pollDem":56.333333,"pollRep":28.333333,"pollMargin":28.0,"actualDem":63.550666,"actualRep":29.843554,"actualMargin":33.707112,"actualDRShare":93.394221,"signedError":-5.707112,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.707112,"individualPollMAE":7.902371,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":33.707112,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":37.0,"signedError":3.292888,"selectedQuestionIds":["25287"],"selectedPollIds":["16735"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":-9.707112,"selectedQuestionIds":["25315"],"selectedPollIds":["16606"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":-10.707112,"selectedQuestionIds":["25436"],"selectedPollIds":["16476"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"156","race":"2018_Gov-G_OK","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Drew Edmondson","republican":"Kevin Stitt","pollDem":44.1,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-2.9,"actualDem":42.226849,"actualRep":54.331351,"actualMargin":-12.104502,"actualDRShare":96.5582,"signedError":9.204502,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.204502,"individualPollMAE":9.204502,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-02","2018-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-12.104502,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":-2.9,"signedError":9.204502,"selectedQuestionIds":["91428"],"selectedPollIds":["56748"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1560","race":"2008_Sen-G_MI","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Carl Levin","republican":"Jacob W. Hoogendyk Jr.","pollDem":54.25,"pollRep":33.25,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":62.664964,"actualRep":33.846125,"actualMargin":28.818839,"actualDRShare":96.51109,"signedError":-7.818839,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.818839,"individualPollMAE":7.818839,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":28.818839,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-10.818839,"selectedQuestionIds":["24830"],"selectedPollIds":["16586"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-6.818839,"selectedQuestionIds":["24945"],"selectedPollIds":["16528"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-7.818839,"selectedQuestionIds":["25261"],"selectedPollIds":["16505"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":-5.818839,"selectedQuestionIds":["25438"],"selectedPollIds":["16489"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1561","race":"2008_Sen-G_MN","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Al Franken","republican":"Norm Coleman","pollDem":40.25,"pollRep":39.625,"pollMargin":0.625,"actualDem":41.993686,"actualRep":41.982882,"actualMargin":0.010805,"actualDRShare":83.976568,"signedError":0.614195,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.614195,"individualPollMAE":4.372299,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.010805,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"31","pollster":"Big Ten","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.989195,"selectedQuestionIds":["24810"],"selectedPollIds":["16716"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-6.010805,"selectedQuestionIds":["24896"],"selectedPollIds":["16595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.989195,"selectedQuestionIds":["25269"],"selectedPollIds":["16506"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.989195,"selectedQuestionIds":["24950"],"selectedPollIds":["16529"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.010805,"selectedQuestionIds":["25089"],"selectedPollIds":["16600"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.010805,"selectedQuestionIds":["25322"],"selectedPollIds":["16446"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"143","pollster":"University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.989195,"selectedQuestionIds":["29334"],"selectedPollIds":["16591"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.989195,"selectedQuestionIds":["25439"],"selectedPollIds":["16477"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1562","race":"2008_Sen-G_MS","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MS","democrat":"Erik R. Fleming","republican":"Thad Cochran","pollDem":28.0,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-28.0,"actualDem":38.564954,"actualRep":61.435046,"actualMargin":-22.870093,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.129907,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.129907,"individualPollMAE":5.129907,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-22.870093,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":-5.129907,"selectedQuestionIds":["25440"],"selectedPollIds":["16479"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1564","race":"2008_Sen-G_MT","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Max Baucus","republican":"Bob Kelleher","pollDem":65.5,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":36.5,"actualDem":72.915978,"actualRep":27.084022,"actualMargin":45.831955,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-9.331955,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.331955,"individualPollMAE":9.331955,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":45.831955,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":45.0,"signedError":-0.831955,"selectedQuestionIds":["24951"],"selectedPollIds":["16416"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":-17.831955,"selectedQuestionIds":["25442"],"selectedPollIds":["16491"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1565","race":"2008_Sen-G_NE","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Scott Kleeb","republican":"Mike Johanns","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":40.056983,"actualRep":57.520211,"actualMargin":-17.463228,"actualDRShare":97.577195,"signedError":-1.536772,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.536772,"individualPollMAE":1.536772,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.463228,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-1.536772,"selectedQuestionIds":["25444"],"selectedPollIds":["16463"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1566","race":"2008_Sen-G_NH","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Jeanne Shaheen","republican":"John E. Sununu","pollDem":49.5,"pollRep":41.375,"pollMargin":8.125,"actualDem":51.589624,"actualRep":45.25171,"actualMargin":6.337914,"actualDRShare":96.841334,"signedError":1.787086,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.787086,"individualPollMAE":2.790522,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.337914,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":5.662086,"selectedQuestionIds":["24782"],"selectedPollIds":["16517"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.337914,"selectedQuestionIds":["24798"],"selectedPollIds":["16634"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-3.337914,"selectedQuestionIds":["24989"],"selectedPollIds":["16723"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":1.662086,"selectedQuestionIds":["25125"],"selectedPollIds":["16533"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":2.662086,"selectedQuestionIds":["25289"],"selectedPollIds":["16569"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":6.662086,"selectedQuestionIds":["25343"],"selectedPollIds":["16540"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.337914,"selectedQuestionIds":["29419"],"selectedPollIds":["54158"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":1.662086,"selectedQuestionIds":["25445"],"selectedPollIds":["16464"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1567","race":"2008_Sen-G_NJ","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Frank R. Lautenberg","republican":"Dick Zimmer","pollDem":50.5,"pollRep":33.5,"pollMargin":17.0,"actualDem":56.030117,"actualRep":41.954001,"actualMargin":14.076116,"actualDRShare":97.984117,"signedError":2.923884,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.923884,"individualPollMAE":2.961942,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":14.076116,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":5.923884,"selectedQuestionIds":["24837"],"selectedPollIds":["16550"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":4.923884,"selectedQuestionIds":["24917"],"selectedPollIds":["16504"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":0.923884,"selectedQuestionIds":["25346"],"selectedPollIds":["16541"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.076116,"selectedQuestionIds":["25446"],"selectedPollIds":["16468"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1568","race":"2008_Sen-G_NM","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Tom Udall","republican":"Stevan Pearce","pollDem":55.4,"pollRep":38.8,"pollMargin":16.6,"actualDem":61.327991,"actualRep":38.672009,"actualMargin":22.655983,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-6.055983,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.055983,"individualPollMAE":6.055983,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":22.655983,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-3.655983,"selectedQuestionIds":["24970"],"selectedPollIds":["16531"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-8.655983,"selectedQuestionIds":["29291"],"selectedPollIds":["16512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-7.655983,"selectedQuestionIds":["25142"],"selectedPollIds":["16597"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-8.655983,"selectedQuestionIds":["25349"],"selectedPollIds":["16510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-1.655983,"selectedQuestionIds":["25447"],"selectedPollIds":["16465"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1569","race":"2008_Sen-G_NC","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Kay R. Hagan","republican":"Elizabeth H. Dole","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":43.1,"pollMargin":4.9,"actualDem":52.652781,"actualRep":44.183597,"actualMargin":8.469184,"actualDRShare":96.836378,"signedError":-3.569184,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.569184,"individualPollMAE":3.675347,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.469184,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":0.530816,"selectedQuestionIds":["29312"],"selectedPollIds":["16585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"86","pollster":"Elon University","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-1.469184,"selectedQuestionIds":["117093"],"selectedPollIds":["63540"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"812","pollster":"FTI Consulting","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-6.469184,"selectedQuestionIds":["24930"],"selectedPollIds":["16610"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-4.469184,"selectedQuestionIds":["24797"],"selectedPollIds":["16637"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-9.469184,"selectedQuestionIds":["24898"],"selectedPollIds":["16556"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-1.469184,"selectedQuestionIds":["24952"],"selectedPollIds":["16423"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-2.469184,"selectedQuestionIds":["25112"],"selectedPollIds":["16564"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-1.469184,"selectedQuestionIds":["25336"],"selectedPollIds":["16435"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"334","pollster":"The Tyson Group","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-6.469184,"selectedQuestionIds":["25384"],"selectedPollIds":["16543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-2.469184,"selectedQuestionIds":["25443"],"selectedPollIds":["16495"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"157","race":"2018_Gov-G_OR","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Kate Brown","republican":"Knute C. Buehler","pollDem":45.85,"pollRep":41.8,"pollMargin":4.05,"actualDem":50.053535,"actualRep":43.652347,"actualMargin":6.401189,"actualDRShare":93.705882,"signedError":-2.351189,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.351189,"individualPollMAE":2.351189,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":6.401189,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":5.1,"signedError":-1.301189,"selectedQuestionIds":["90973"],"selectedPollIds":["56543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"141","pollster":"Hoffman Research Group","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-3.401189,"selectedQuestionIds":["91150"],"selectedPollIds":["56613"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1570","race":"2008_Sen-G_OK","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Andrew Rice","republican":"James M. Inhofe","pollDem":38.5,"pollRep":52.75,"pollMargin":-14.25,"actualDem":39.183884,"actualRep":56.679851,"actualMargin":-17.495966,"actualDRShare":95.863735,"signedError":3.245966,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.245966,"individualPollMAE":4.497983,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-28"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.495966,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":1.495966,"selectedQuestionIds":["29368"],"selectedPollIds":["24126"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":7.495966,"selectedQuestionIds":["25393"],"selectedPollIds":["16676"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":-2.504034,"selectedQuestionIds":["25357"],"selectedPollIds":["16571"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":6.495966,"selectedQuestionIds":["25448"],"selectedPollIds":["16496"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1571","race":"2008_Sen-G_OR","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Jeff Merkley","republican":"Gordon H. Smith","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":43.166667,"pollMargin":3.333333,"actualDem":48.90467,"actualRep":45.553447,"actualMargin":3.351223,"actualDRShare":94.458117,"signedError":-0.01789,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.01789,"individualPollMAE":3.333333,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.351223,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":1.648777,"selectedQuestionIds":["24937"],"selectedPollIds":["16684"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"217","pollster":"Moore Information Group","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-7.351223,"selectedQuestionIds":["24923"],"selectedPollIds":["16590"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":4.648777,"selectedQuestionIds":["24972"],"selectedPollIds":["16532"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.351223,"selectedQuestionIds":["25153"],"selectedPollIds":["16535"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":3.648777,"selectedQuestionIds":["25361"],"selectedPollIds":["16542"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.351223,"selectedQuestionIds":["25449"],"selectedPollIds":["16492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1572","race":"2008_Sen-G_RI","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Jack Reed","republican":"Robert G. Tingle","pollDem":64.0,"pollRep":25.0,"pollMargin":39.0,"actualDem":73.070928,"actualRep":26.474663,"actualMargin":46.596264,"actualDRShare":99.545591,"signedError":-7.596264,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.596264,"individualPollMAE":7.596264,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":46.596264,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":39.0,"signedError":-7.596264,"selectedQuestionIds":["25450"],"selectedPollIds":["16471"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1573","race":"2008_Sen-G_SC","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Bob Conley","republican":"Lindsey Graham","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":52.5,"pollMargin":-17.5,"actualDem":42.246869,"actualRep":57.524643,"actualMargin":-15.277774,"actualDRShare":99.771512,"signedError":-2.222226,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.222226,"individualPollMAE":2.222226,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.277774,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-3.722226,"selectedQuestionIds":["25367"],"selectedPollIds":["16573"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-0.722226,"selectedQuestionIds":["25451"],"selectedPollIds":["16458"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1574","race":"2008_Sen-G_SD","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Tim Johnson","republican":"Joel D. Dykstra","pollDem":61.0,"pollRep":33.5,"pollMargin":27.5,"actualDem":62.491692,"actualRep":37.508308,"actualMargin":24.983385,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":2.516615,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.516615,"individualPollMAE":2.516615,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":24.983385,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":5.016615,"selectedQuestionIds":["29324"],"selectedPollIds":["24077"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":0.016615,"selectedQuestionIds":["25452"],"selectedPollIds":["16459"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1575","race":"2008_Sen-G_TN","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Robert D. Tuke","republican":"Lamar Alexander","pollDem":30.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-23.0,"actualDem":31.644013,"actualRep":65.144221,"actualMargin":-33.500207,"actualDRShare":96.788234,"signedError":10.500207,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.500207,"individualPollMAE":10.500207,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-33.500207,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":10.500207,"selectedQuestionIds":["25453"],"selectedPollIds":["16478"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1576","race":"2008_Sen-G_TX","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Rick Noriega","republican":"John Cornyn","pollDem":37.5,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-13.5,"actualDem":42.837878,"actualRep":54.820878,"actualMargin":-11.983001,"actualDRShare":97.658756,"signedError":-1.516999,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.516999,"individualPollMAE":1.516999,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.983001,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-3.016999,"selectedQuestionIds":["25169"],"selectedPollIds":["16757"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-0.016999,"selectedQuestionIds":["25454"],"selectedPollIds":["16485"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1577","race":"2008_Sen-G_VA","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Mark R. Warner","republican":"James S. Gilmore III","pollDem":60.3,"pollRep":31.4,"pollMargin":28.9,"actualDem":65.03255,"actualRep":33.728543,"actualMargin":31.304007,"actualDRShare":98.761094,"signedError":-2.404007,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.404007,"individualPollMAE":3.682404,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":31.304007,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":31.0,"signedError":-0.304007,"selectedQuestionIds":["117081"],"selectedPollIds":["63616"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":-3.304007,"selectedQuestionIds":["29313"],"selectedPollIds":["16583"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"812","pollster":"FTI Consulting","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":-2.304007,"selectedQuestionIds":["24932"],"selectedPollIds":["16614"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":-5.304007,"selectedQuestionIds":["24799"],"selectedPollIds":["16630"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":31.0,"signedError":-0.304007,"selectedQuestionIds":["117211"],"selectedPollIds":["42585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":-5.304007,"selectedQuestionIds":["24974"],"selectedPollIds":["16422"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":35.0,"signedError":3.695993,"selectedQuestionIds":["25256"],"selectedPollIds":["16667"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":-7.304007,"selectedQuestionIds":["25370"],"selectedPollIds":["16445"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"370","pollster":"Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":34.0,"signedError":2.695993,"selectedQuestionIds":["25414"],"selectedPollIds":["16744"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":-6.304007,"selectedQuestionIds":["25455"],"selectedPollIds":["16493"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1578","race":"2008_Sen-G_WV","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"John D. Rockefeller, IV","republican":"Jay Wolfe","pollDem":56.5,"pollRep":38.5,"pollMargin":18.0,"actualDem":63.727026,"actualRep":36.25603,"actualMargin":27.470996,"actualDRShare":99.983056,"signedError":-9.470996,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.470996,"individualPollMAE":9.470996,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":27.470996,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-9.470996,"selectedQuestionIds":["24980"],"selectedPollIds":["16527"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-9.470996,"selectedQuestionIds":["117517"],"selectedPollIds":["16460"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1579","race":"2008_Sen-G_WY","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"WY","democrat":"Christopher Rothfuss","republican":"Michael B. Enzi","pollDem":25.0,"pollRep":68.0,"pollMargin":-43.0,"actualDem":24.251721,"actualRep":75.616283,"actualMargin":-51.364562,"actualDRShare":99.868004,"signedError":8.364562,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.364562,"individualPollMAE":8.364562,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-51.377097,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.012536,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-43.0,"signedError":8.364562,"selectedQuestionIds":["25457"],"selectedPollIds":["16480"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"158","race":"2018_Gov-G_PA","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Thomas W. Wolf","republican":"Scott R. Wagner","pollDem":56.0,"pollRep":37.75,"pollMargin":18.25,"actualDem":57.767985,"actualRep":40.695454,"actualMargin":17.072531,"actualDRShare":98.463438,"signedError":1.177469,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.177469,"individualPollMAE":5.25,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":17.072531,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-6.072531,"selectedQuestionIds":["91442"],"selectedPollIds":["56758"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":8.927469,"selectedQuestionIds":["91188"],"selectedPollIds":["56628"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":3.927469,"selectedQuestionIds":["91292"],"selectedPollIds":["56682"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-2.072531,"selectedQuestionIds":["91411"],"selectedPollIds":["56741"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1580","race":"2008_Sen-GS_WY","series":"senate","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"GS","location":"WY","democrat":"Nicholas H. Carter","republican":"John Barrasso","pollDem":29.0,"pollRep":63.0,"pollMargin":-34.0,"actualDem":26.521218,"actualRep":73.336966,"actualMargin":-46.815747,"actualDRShare":99.858184,"signedError":12.815747,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.815747,"individualPollMAE":12.815747,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-46.82719,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.011443,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-34.0,"signedError":12.815747,"selectedQuestionIds":["25456"],"selectedPollIds":["16480"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1581","race":"2006_Sen-G_AZ","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Jim Pederson","republican":"Jon Kyl","pollDem":42.54,"pollRep":49.92,"pollMargin":-7.38,"actualDem":43.499399,"actualRep":53.340817,"actualMargin":-9.841418,"actualDRShare":96.840217,"signedError":2.461418,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.461418,"individualPollMAE":3.724851,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.841418,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":1.841418,"selectedQuestionIds":["29563"],"selectedPollIds":["24325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-3.158582,"selectedQuestionIds":["30040"],"selectedPollIds":["24802"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":5.841418,"selectedQuestionIds":["30117"],"selectedPollIds":["24879"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"394","pollster":"Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":-4.5,"signedError":5.341418,"selectedQuestionIds":["30138"],"selectedPollIds":["24900"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-7.4,"signedError":2.441418,"selectedQuestionIds":["30225"],"selectedPollIds":["55159"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1582","race":"2006_Sen-G_CA","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Dianne Feinstein","republican":"Richard Dick Mountjoy","pollDem":57.5,"pollRep":32.75,"pollMargin":24.75,"actualDem":59.431051,"actualRep":35.015283,"actualMargin":24.415768,"actualDRShare":94.446335,"signedError":0.334232,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.334232,"individualPollMAE":5.75,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-27","2006-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":24.415768,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"75","pollster":"Datamar Analytics","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-8.415768,"selectedQuestionIds":["29471"],"selectedPollIds":["24233"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-2.415768,"selectedQuestionIds":["29496"],"selectedPollIds":["24258"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":4.584232,"selectedQuestionIds":["30046"],"selectedPollIds":["24808"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":32.0,"signedError":7.584232,"selectedQuestionIds":["30118"],"selectedPollIds":["55203"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1583","race":"2006_Sen-G_CT","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Edward Lamont","republican":"Alan Schlesinger","pollDem":39.4,"pollRep":7.8,"pollMargin":31.6,"actualDem":39.729744,"actualRep":9.62286,"actualMargin":30.106884,"actualDRShare":49.352604,"signedError":1.493116,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.493116,"individualPollMAE":2.421377,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2006-10-27","2006-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":30.106884,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":-0.106884,"selectedQuestionIds":["29651"],"selectedPollIds":["24413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":31.0,"signedError":0.893116,"selectedQuestionIds":["29710"],"selectedPollIds":["24472"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":-1.106884,"selectedQuestionIds":["30050"],"selectedPollIds":["24812"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":39.0,"signedError":8.893116,"selectedQuestionIds":["30120"],"selectedPollIds":["24882"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":-1.106884,"selectedQuestionIds":["30228"],"selectedPollIds":["24990"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1585","race":"2006_Sen-G_FL","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Bill Nelson","republican":"Katherine Harris","pollDem":58.6,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":25.6,"actualDem":60.30098,"actualRep":38.09563,"actualMargin":22.20535,"actualDRShare":98.396611,"signedError":3.39465,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.39465,"individualPollMAE":3.39465,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":22.20535,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":1.79465,"selectedQuestionIds":["29565"],"selectedPollIds":["24327"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"302","pollster":"SEA Polling & Strategic Design","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":3.79465,"selectedQuestionIds":["29943"],"selectedPollIds":["24705"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":0.79465,"selectedQuestionIds":["30053"],"selectedPollIds":["24815"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":3.79465,"selectedQuestionIds":["30121"],"selectedPollIds":["55287"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":6.79465,"selectedQuestionIds":["30233"],"selectedPollIds":["24995"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1589","race":"2006_Sen-G_MD","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Benjamin L. Cardin","republican":"Michael S. Steele","pollDem":49.857143,"pollRep":44.285714,"pollMargin":5.571429,"actualDem":54.205595,"actualRep":44.195428,"actualMargin":10.010168,"actualDRShare":98.401023,"signedError":-4.438739,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.438739,"individualPollMAE":4.721548,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.010168,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":0.989832,"selectedQuestionIds":["137322"],"selectedPollIds":["24875"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-7.010168,"selectedQuestionIds":["29570"],"selectedPollIds":["24332"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"256","pollster":"Potomac Incorporated","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-4.010168,"selectedQuestionIds":["29640"],"selectedPollIds":["24402"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-5.010168,"selectedQuestionIds":["29727"],"selectedPollIds":["24489"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-7.010168,"selectedQuestionIds":["30056"],"selectedPollIds":["24818"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-4.010168,"selectedQuestionIds":["30123"],"selectedPollIds":["24885"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-5.010168,"selectedQuestionIds":["30237"],"selectedPollIds":["24999"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1590","race":"2006_Sen-G_MA","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Edward M. Kennedy","republican":"Kenneth G. Chase","pollDem":66.5,"pollRep":26.0,"pollMargin":40.5,"actualDem":66.882725,"actualRep":29.482203,"actualMargin":37.400522,"actualDRShare":96.364929,"signedError":3.099478,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.099478,"individualPollMAE":3.099478,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":37.400522,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":41.0,"signedError":3.599478,"selectedQuestionIds":["30110"],"selectedPollIds":["24872"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":40.0,"signedError":2.599478,"selectedQuestionIds":["30122"],"selectedPollIds":["24884"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1591","race":"2006_Sen-G_MI","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Debbie Stabenow","republican":"Mike Bouchard","pollDem":52.216667,"pollRep":38.816667,"pollMargin":13.4,"actualDem":56.909979,"actualRep":41.25763,"actualMargin":15.652349,"actualDRShare":98.167609,"signedError":-2.252349,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.252349,"individualPollMAE":3.484116,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.652349,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-2.652349,"selectedQuestionIds":["29479"],"selectedPollIds":["24241"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":0.347651,"selectedQuestionIds":["29572"],"selectedPollIds":["24334"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":3.347651,"selectedQuestionIds":["29945"],"selectedPollIds":["24707"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-5.652349,"selectedQuestionIds":["30060"],"selectedPollIds":["24822"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-0.652349,"selectedQuestionIds":["30124"],"selectedPollIds":["24886"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":7.4,"signedError":-8.252349,"selectedQuestionIds":["30243"],"selectedPollIds":["55509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1592","race":"2006_Sen-G_MN","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Amy Klobuchar","republican":"Mark R. Kennedy","pollDem":53.928571,"pollRep":38.4,"pollMargin":15.528571,"actualDem":58.056349,"actualRep":37.936427,"actualMargin":20.119922,"actualDRShare":95.992776,"signedError":-4.59135,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.59135,"individualPollMAE":5.379966,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":20.119922,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-10.119922,"selectedQuestionIds":["29573"],"selectedPollIds":["24335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"315","pollster":"Minneapolis Star Tribune","date":"2006-11-05","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":0.880078,"selectedQuestionIds":["137219"],"selectedPollIds":["24718"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-6.119922,"selectedQuestionIds":["29750"],"selectedPollIds":["24512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-4.119922,"selectedQuestionIds":["30066"],"selectedPollIds":["24828"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"143","pollster":"University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":1.880078,"selectedQuestionIds":["136979"],"selectedPollIds":["55534"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-2.119922,"selectedQuestionIds":["30125"],"selectedPollIds":["24887"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":7.7,"signedError":-12.419922,"selectedQuestionIds":["30246"],"selectedPollIds":["25008"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1594","race":"2006_Sen-G_MO","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Claire McCaskill","republican":"Jim Talent","pollDem":48.375,"pollRep":46.375,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":49.578357,"actualRep":47.308452,"actualMargin":2.269905,"actualDRShare":96.886809,"signedError":-0.269905,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.269905,"individualPollMAE":2.0,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2006-10-27","2006-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.269905,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.269905,"selectedQuestionIds":["29634"],"selectedPollIds":["24396"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.730095,"selectedQuestionIds":["29512"],"selectedPollIds":["24274"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.269905,"selectedQuestionIds":["29575"],"selectedPollIds":["24337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"240","pollster":"OnPoint","date":"2006-11-06","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.730095,"selectedQuestionIds":["29629"],"selectedPollIds":["24391"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-05","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-3.269905,"selectedQuestionIds":["29759"],"selectedPollIds":["24521"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-05","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.730095,"selectedQuestionIds":["30070"],"selectedPollIds":["24832"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.269905,"selectedQuestionIds":["30126"],"selectedPollIds":["24888"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.730095,"selectedQuestionIds":["30249"],"selectedPollIds":["25011"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1595","race":"2006_Sen-G_MT","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Jon Tester","republican":"Conrad Burns","pollDem":48.5,"pollRep":44.666667,"pollMargin":3.833333,"actualDem":49.161757,"actualRep":48.285507,"actualMargin":0.87625,"actualDRShare":97.447264,"signedError":2.957083,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.957083,"individualPollMAE":3.249167,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.87625,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":8.12375,"selectedQuestionIds":["29515"],"selectedPollIds":["24277"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"134","pollster":"Harstad Strategic Research","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.12375,"selectedQuestionIds":["29541"],"selectedPollIds":["24303"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.87625,"selectedQuestionIds":["29578"],"selectedPollIds":["24340"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"240","pollster":"OnPoint","date":"2006-11-06","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.12375,"selectedQuestionIds":["29630"],"selectedPollIds":["24392"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.12375,"selectedQuestionIds":["29776"],"selectedPollIds":["24538"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.12375,"selectedQuestionIds":["30254"],"selectedPollIds":["25016"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1597","race":"2006_Sen-G_NV","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Jack Carter","republican":"John Ensign","pollDem":39.45,"pollRep":54.825,"pollMargin":-15.375,"actualDem":40.989955,"actualRep":55.358136,"actualMargin":-14.368181,"actualDRShare":96.348091,"signedError":-1.006819,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.006819,"individualPollMAE":3.875,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.368181,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-2.631819,"selectedQuestionIds":["29587"],"selectedPollIds":["24349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":2.368181,"selectedQuestionIds":["29815"],"selectedPollIds":["24577"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":3.368181,"selectedQuestionIds":["30128"],"selectedPollIds":["24890"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-21.5,"signedError":-7.131819,"selectedQuestionIds":["30265"],"selectedPollIds":["55566"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1598","race":"2006_Sen-G_NJ","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Robert Menendez","republican":"Thomas H. Kean Jr.","pollDem":48.142857,"pollRep":41.214286,"pollMargin":6.928571,"actualDem":57.204358,"actualRep":41.185412,"actualMargin":16.018946,"actualDRShare":98.38977,"signedError":-9.090375,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.090375,"individualPollMAE":9.090375,"n":14,"pollsters":14,"sourceQuestions":18,"selectedQuestions":14,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.018946,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-9.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29635"],"selectedPollIds":["24397"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-6.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29489"],"selectedPollIds":["24251"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-6.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29517"],"selectedPollIds":["24279"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-8.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29554"],"selectedPollIds":["24316"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-9.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29584"],"selectedPollIds":["24346"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-13.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29617"],"selectedPollIds":["24379"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"232","pollster":"Normington, Petts & Associates","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-7.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29453"],"selectedPollIds":["24215"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"240","pollster":"OnPoint","date":"2006-11-06","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-7.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29631"],"selectedPollIds":["24393"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-14.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29650"],"selectedPollIds":["24412"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-11.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29668"],"selectedPollIds":["24430"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-12.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29939"],"selectedPollIds":["24701"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-11.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["29799"],"selectedPollIds":["24561"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-10.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["30127"],"selectedPollIds":["24889"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-4.018946,"selectedQuestionIds":["30256"],"selectedPollIds":["25018"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"16","race":"2014_Sen-G_VA","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Mark R. Warner","republican":"Ed W. Gillespie","pollDem":48.25,"pollRep":40.75,"pollMargin":7.5,"actualDem":49.149932,"actualRep":48.338432,"actualMargin":0.8115,"actualDRShare":97.488364,"signedError":6.6885,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.6885,"individualPollMAE":6.6885,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.8115,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"50","pollster":"Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":6.1885,"selectedQuestionIds":["42098"],"selectedPollIds":["34401"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":8.1885,"selectedQuestionIds":["112370"],"selectedPollIds":["62497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":9.1885,"selectedQuestionIds":["127539"],"selectedPollIds":["34409"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.1885,"selectedQuestionIds":["42265"],"selectedPollIds":["34507"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"160","race":"2018_Gov-G_SC","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"James Emerson Smith","republican":"Henry McMaster","pollDem":38.1,"pollRep":54.3,"pollMargin":-16.2,"actualDem":45.923884,"actualRep":53.956355,"actualMargin":-8.032472,"actualDRShare":99.880239,"signedError":-8.167528,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.167528,"individualPollMAE":8.167528,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-30","2018-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-8.032472,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-16.2,"signedError":-8.167528,"selectedQuestionIds":["91288"],"selectedPollIds":["56679"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1600","race":"2006_Sen-G_NY","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"John Spencer","pollDem":62.433333,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":31.433333,"actualDem":64.0005,"actualRep":29.61706,"actualMargin":34.38344,"actualDRShare":93.61756,"signedError":-2.950107,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.950107,"individualPollMAE":4.69448,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":31.613387,"outcomeMarginCorrection":2.770053,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":33.0,"signedError":-1.38344,"selectedQuestionIds":["29556"],"selectedPollIds":["24318"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":37.0,"signedError":2.61656,"selectedQuestionIds":["29948"],"selectedPollIds":["24710"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":24.3,"signedError":-10.08344,"selectedQuestionIds":["30268"],"selectedPollIds":["55595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1602","race":"2006_Sen-G_OH","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Sherrod Brown","republican":"Mike DeWine","pollDem":54.222222,"pollRep":42.222222,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":56.164132,"actualRep":43.815218,"actualMargin":12.348914,"actualDRShare":99.979349,"signedError":-0.348914,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.348914,"individualPollMAE":4.193841,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.348914,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-1.348914,"selectedQuestionIds":["29636"],"selectedPollIds":["24398"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":11.651086,"selectedQuestionIds":["29466"],"selectedPollIds":["24228"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-6.348914,"selectedQuestionIds":["29592"],"selectedPollIds":["24354"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"241","pollster":"Opinion Consultants","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-5.348914,"selectedQuestionIds":["29633"],"selectedPollIds":["24395"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-1.348914,"selectedQuestionIds":["29820"],"selectedPollIds":["24582"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-0.348914,"selectedQuestionIds":["30076"],"selectedPollIds":["24838"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-0.348914,"selectedQuestionIds":["30104"],"selectedPollIds":["24866"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":5.651086,"selectedQuestionIds":["30129"],"selectedPollIds":["24891"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-5.348914,"selectedQuestionIds":["30272"],"selectedPollIds":["25034"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1603","race":"2006_Sen-G_PA","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Robert P. Casey Jr.","republican":"Rick Santorum","pollDem":51.677778,"pollRep":40.788889,"pollMargin":10.888889,"actualDem":58.636579,"actualRep":41.283025,"actualMargin":17.353554,"actualDRShare":99.919604,"signedError":-6.464665,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.464665,"individualPollMAE":6.464665,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":17.353554,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-2.353554,"selectedQuestionIds":["29502"],"selectedPollIds":["24264"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-4.353554,"selectedQuestionIds":["29595"],"selectedPollIds":["24357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-9.353554,"selectedQuestionIds":["29623"],"selectedPollIds":["24385"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-7.353554,"selectedQuestionIds":["29687"],"selectedPollIds":["24449"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-4.353554,"selectedQuestionIds":["29833"],"selectedPollIds":["24595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-13.353554,"selectedQuestionIds":["117221"],"selectedPollIds":["63695"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"377","pollster":"West Chester University","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-6.353554,"selectedQuestionIds":["30116"],"selectedPollIds":["24878"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-1.353554,"selectedQuestionIds":["30130"],"selectedPollIds":["24892"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-9.353554,"selectedQuestionIds":["30277"],"selectedPollIds":["25039"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1604","race":"2006_Sen-G_RI","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Sheldon Whitehouse","republican":"Lincoln Chafee","pollDem":47.25,"pollRep":40.75,"pollMargin":6.5,"actualDem":53.518635,"actualRep":46.481365,"actualMargin":7.037271,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.537271,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.537271,"individualPollMAE":5.5,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.037271,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-4.037271,"selectedQuestionIds":["29521"],"selectedPollIds":["24283"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-8.037271,"selectedQuestionIds":["29598"],"selectedPollIds":["24360"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"285","pollster":"Quest Research Group","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":2.962729,"selectedQuestionIds":["29933"],"selectedPollIds":["24695"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":6.962729,"selectedQuestionIds":["30282"],"selectedPollIds":["25044"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1605","race":"2006_Sen-G_TN","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Harold E. Ford Jr.","republican":"Bob Corker","pollDem":45.1,"pollRep":48.8,"pollMargin":-3.7,"actualDem":47.989224,"actualRep":50.712414,"actualMargin":-2.72319,"actualDRShare":98.701638,"signedError":-0.97681,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.97681,"individualPollMAE":4.610724,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2006-10-27","2006-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.72319,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"30","pollster":"Benenson Strategy Group","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":7.72319,"selectedQuestionIds":["29449"],"selectedPollIds":["24211"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-5.27681,"selectedQuestionIds":["29637"],"selectedPollIds":["24399"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"130","pollster":"EMC Research","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":8.72319,"selectedQuestionIds":["29537"],"selectedPollIds":["24299"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2006-11-03","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-0.27681,"selectedQuestionIds":["29523"],"selectedPollIds":["24285"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-9.27681,"selectedQuestionIds":["29601"],"selectedPollIds":["24363"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"240","pollster":"OnPoint","date":"2006-11-06","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.72319,"selectedQuestionIds":["29632"],"selectedPollIds":["24394"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.27681,"selectedQuestionIds":["29857"],"selectedPollIds":["24619"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.27681,"selectedQuestionIds":["30082"],"selectedPollIds":["24844"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.27681,"selectedQuestionIds":["30131"],"selectedPollIds":["24893"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-7.27681,"selectedQuestionIds":["30284"],"selectedPollIds":["25046"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1606","race":"2006_Sen-G_TX","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Barbara Ann Radnofsky","republican":"Kay Bailey Hutchison","pollDem":32.45,"pollRep":59.9,"pollMargin":-27.45,"actualDem":36.044576,"actualRep":61.691701,"actualMargin":-25.647125,"actualDRShare":97.736277,"signedError":-1.802875,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.802875,"individualPollMAE":8.55,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-25.647125,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-36.0,"signedError":-10.352875,"selectedQuestionIds":["30132"],"selectedPollIds":["24894"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-18.9,"signedError":6.747125,"selectedQuestionIds":["30291"],"selectedPollIds":["55779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1607","race":"2006_Sen-G_UT","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Pete Ashdown","republican":"Orrin G. Hatch","pollDem":32.5,"pollRep":63.5,"pollMargin":-31.0,"actualDem":31.064924,"actualRep":62.36092,"actualMargin":-31.295995,"actualDRShare":93.425844,"signedError":0.295995,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.295995,"individualPollMAE":1.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-31","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-31.295995,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":1.295995,"selectedQuestionIds":["137093"],"selectedPollIds":["64131"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":-0.704005,"selectedQuestionIds":["30133"],"selectedPollIds":["24895"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1609","race":"2006_Sen-G_VA","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Jim Webb","republican":"George F. Allen","pollDem":47.444444,"pollRep":46.111111,"pollMargin":1.333333,"actualDem":49.594317,"actualRep":49.200762,"actualMargin":0.393555,"actualDRShare":98.795079,"signedError":0.939779,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.939779,"individualPollMAE":2.622938,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2006-10-26","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.393555,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.606445,"selectedQuestionIds":["29638"],"selectedPollIds":["24400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.393555,"selectedQuestionIds":["29525"],"selectedPollIds":["24287"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.606445,"selectedQuestionIds":["29528"],"selectedPollIds":["24290"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.606445,"selectedQuestionIds":["29605"],"selectedPollIds":["24367"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.393555,"selectedQuestionIds":["29938"],"selectedPollIds":["24700"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.393555,"selectedQuestionIds":["29876"],"selectedPollIds":["24638"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":7.606445,"selectedQuestionIds":["30086"],"selectedPollIds":["24848"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.393555,"selectedQuestionIds":["30134"],"selectedPollIds":["24896"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.606445,"selectedQuestionIds":["30295"],"selectedPollIds":["25057"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"161","race":"2018_Gov-G_SD","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Billie H. Sutton","republican":"Kristi Noem","pollDem":47.2,"pollRep":46.533333,"pollMargin":0.666667,"actualDem":47.596503,"actualRep":50.974311,"actualMargin":-3.377809,"actualDRShare":98.570814,"signedError":4.044475,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.044475,"individualPollMAE":4.044475,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-30","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-3.377809,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":9.377809,"selectedQuestionIds":["91444"],"selectedPollIds":["56760"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.377809,"selectedQuestionIds":["91489"],"selectedPollIds":["56781"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.377809,"selectedQuestionIds":["91227"],"selectedPollIds":["56644"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1610","race":"2006_Sen-G_WA","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Maria Cantwell","republican":"Mike McGavick","pollDem":53.666667,"pollRep":41.85,"pollMargin":11.816667,"actualDem":56.852698,"actualRep":39.933408,"actualMargin":16.91929,"actualDRShare":96.786106,"signedError":-5.102623,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.102623,"individualPollMAE":5.102623,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.91929,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-0.91929,"selectedQuestionIds":["29610"],"selectedPollIds":["24372"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-4.91929,"selectedQuestionIds":["29893"],"selectedPollIds":["24655"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-3.91929,"selectedQuestionIds":["137593"],"selectedPollIds":["24855"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"364","pollster":"University of Washington Center for Survey Research","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-4.91929,"selectedQuestionIds":["30109"],"selectedPollIds":["24871"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-2.91929,"selectedQuestionIds":["30135"],"selectedPollIds":["24897"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":3.9,"signedError":-13.01929,"selectedQuestionIds":["30300"],"selectedPollIds":["25062"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1611","race":"2006_Sen-G_WV","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"Robert C. Byrd","republican":"John Raese","pollDem":67.0,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":34.0,"actualDem":77.049022,"actualRep":22.950978,"actualMargin":54.098043,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-20.098043,"absoluteAverageMiss":20.098043,"individualPollMAE":20.098043,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-31","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":54.098043,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":34.0,"signedError":-20.098043,"selectedQuestionIds":["30137"],"selectedPollIds":["24899"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1612","race":"2006_Sen-G_WI","series":"senate","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Herb Kohl","republican":"Robert Gerald Lorge","pollDem":58.1,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":27.1,"actualDem":67.306553,"actualRep":29.476682,"actualMargin":37.829871,"actualDRShare":96.783235,"signedError":-10.729871,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.729871,"individualPollMAE":17.9,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":37.829871,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":45.0,"signedError":7.170129,"selectedQuestionIds":["30136"],"selectedPollIds":["55822"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":9.2,"signedError":-28.629871,"selectedQuestionIds":["30303"],"selectedPollIds":["25065"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1615","race":"2004_Sen-G_AK","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Tony Knowles","republican":"Lisa Murkowski","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":45.545627,"actualRep":48.577915,"actualMargin":-3.032288,"actualDRShare":94.123542,"signedError":-1.967712,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.967712,"individualPollMAE":1.967712,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-30","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.032288,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"203","pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-1.967712,"selectedQuestionIds":["30433"],"selectedPollIds":["25195"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1617","race":"2004_Sen-G_AR","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Blanche Lincoln","republican":"Jim Holt","pollDem":59.5,"pollRep":36.5,"pollMargin":23.0,"actualDem":55.897778,"actualRep":44.069509,"actualMargin":11.828269,"actualDRShare":99.967287,"signedError":11.171731,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.171731,"individualPollMAE":13.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.828269,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"242","pollster":"Opinion Research Associates","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":36.0,"signedError":24.171731,"selectedQuestionIds":["26540"],"selectedPollIds":["4608"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-1.828269,"selectedQuestionIds":["30514"],"selectedPollIds":["25274"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1618","race":"2004_Sen-G_CA","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Barbara Boxer","republican":"Bill Jones","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":35.0,"pollMargin":20.0,"actualDem":57.708104,"actualRep":37.798146,"actualMargin":19.909958,"actualDRShare":95.50625,"signedError":0.090042,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.090042,"individualPollMAE":1.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-24","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":19.909958,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-0.909958,"selectedQuestionIds":["26385"],"selectedPollIds":["4556"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":1.090042,"selectedQuestionIds":["26699"],"selectedPollIds":["4322"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1619","race":"2004_Sen-G_CO","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Ken Salazar","republican":"Pete Coors","pollDem":49.4,"pollRep":44.8,"pollMargin":4.6,"actualDem":51.302603,"actualRep":46.532908,"actualMargin":4.769696,"actualDRShare":97.835511,"signedError":-0.169696,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.169696,"individualPollMAE":2.046061,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.769696,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"91","pollster":"FM3 Research","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.230304,"selectedQuestionIds":["117099"],"selectedPollIds":["4577"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-4.769696,"selectedQuestionIds":["30416"],"selectedPollIds":["25178"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.230304,"selectedQuestionIds":["26553"],"selectedPollIds":["4439"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-0.769696,"selectedQuestionIds":["26705"],"selectedPollIds":["4298"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.230304,"selectedQuestionIds":["30602"],"selectedPollIds":["25362"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"162","race":"2018_Gov-G_TN","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Karl F. Dean","republican":"Bill Lee","pollDem":39.9875,"pollRep":54.0875,"pollMargin":-14.1,"actualDem":38.553261,"actualRep":59.560004,"actualMargin":-21.006743,"actualDRShare":98.113266,"signedError":6.906743,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.906743,"individualPollMAE":7.255057,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-21.006743,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":4.006743,"selectedQuestionIds":["91155"],"selectedPollIds":["56616"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-22.4,"signedError":-1.393257,"selectedQuestionIds":["91134"],"selectedPollIds":["56604"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"456","pollster":"East Tennessee State University Applied Social Research Laboratory","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":9.006743,"selectedQuestionIds":["91290"],"selectedPollIds":["56681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-13.4,"signedError":7.606743,"selectedQuestionIds":["91195"],"selectedPollIds":["56633"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":4.006743,"selectedQuestionIds":["91067"],"selectedPollIds":["56577"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":11.006743,"selectedQuestionIds":["91215"],"selectedPollIds":["56641"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":12.006743,"selectedQuestionIds":["91337"],"selectedPollIds":["56705"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":9.006743,"selectedQuestionIds":["91072"],"selectedPollIds":["56580"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1621","race":"2004_Sen-G_FL","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Betty Castor","republican":"Mel Martinez","pollDem":46.236364,"pollRep":45.409091,"pollMargin":0.827273,"actualDem":48.321026,"actualRep":49.433599,"actualMargin":-1.112573,"actualDRShare":97.754625,"signedError":1.939846,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.939846,"individualPollMAE":2.646651,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":17,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.112573,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"130","pollster":"EMC Research","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["26447"],"selectedPollIds":["4479"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["26415"],"selectedPollIds":["4335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":5.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["30372"],"selectedPollIds":["25134"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["26451"],"selectedPollIds":["4318"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["30419"],"selectedPollIds":["25181"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":7.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["30347"],"selectedPollIds":["25109"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-3.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["26570"],"selectedPollIds":["4374"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"302","pollster":"SEA Polling & Strategic Design","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["26533"],"selectedPollIds":["4584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["30526"],"selectedPollIds":["4323"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"99","pollster":"The Florida Poll","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":3.1,"signedError":4.212573,"selectedQuestionIds":["30582"],"selectedPollIds":["4510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["26818"],"selectedPollIds":["4339"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1622","race":"2004_Sen-G_GA","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Denise Majette","republican":"Johnny Isakson","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":52.5,"pollMargin":-14.5,"actualDem":39.978193,"actualRep":57.876839,"actualMargin":-17.898646,"actualDRShare":97.855032,"signedError":3.398646,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.398646,"individualPollMAE":3.398646,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.898646,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":1.898646,"selectedQuestionIds":["30531"],"selectedPollIds":["4357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":4.898646,"selectedQuestionIds":["26826"],"selectedPollIds":["4371"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1625","race":"2004_Sen-G_IL","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Alan Keyes","pollDem":68.0,"pollRep":25.5,"pollMargin":42.5,"actualDem":69.968725,"actualRep":27.048227,"actualMargin":42.920498,"actualDRShare":97.016952,"signedError":-0.420498,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.420498,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":42.920498,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":39.0,"signedError":-3.920498,"selectedQuestionIds":["30535"],"selectedPollIds":["4385"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":46.0,"signedError":3.079502,"selectedQuestionIds":["26519"],"selectedPollIds":["4354"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1626","race":"2004_Sen-G_IN","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Evan Bayh","republican":"Marvin Bailey Scott","pollDem":61.0,"pollRep":34.0,"pollMargin":27.0,"actualDem":61.648779,"actualRep":37.225134,"actualMargin":24.423645,"actualDRShare":98.873914,"signedError":2.576355,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.576355,"individualPollMAE":2.576355,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":24.423645,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":27.0,"signedError":2.576355,"selectedQuestionIds":["30538"],"selectedPollIds":["4392"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1627","race":"2004_Sen-G_IA","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Art Small","republican":"Chuck Grassley","pollDem":21.0,"pollRep":67.5,"pollMargin":-46.5,"actualDem":27.877041,"actualRep":70.183569,"actualMargin":-42.306527,"actualDRShare":98.06061,"signedError":-4.193473,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.193473,"individualPollMAE":4.193473,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-30","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-42.306527,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-47.0,"signedError":-4.693473,"selectedQuestionIds":["30348"],"selectedPollIds":["25110"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-46.0,"signedError":-3.693473,"selectedQuestionIds":["26829"],"selectedPollIds":["4332"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1628","race":"2004_Sen-G_KS","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Lee Jones","republican":"Sam Brownback","pollDem":26.0,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-33.0,"actualDem":27.487241,"actualRep":69.16278,"actualMargin":-41.675539,"actualDRShare":96.650021,"signedError":8.675539,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.675539,"individualPollMAE":8.675539,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-24","2004-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-41.675539,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":8.675539,"selectedQuestionIds":["26475"],"selectedPollIds":["4519"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":8.675539,"selectedQuestionIds":["117448"],"selectedPollIds":["63795"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1629","race":"2004_Sen-G_KY","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Daniel Mongiardo","republican":"Jim Bunning","pollDem":42.666667,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-5.333333,"actualDem":49.343177,"actualRep":50.656823,"actualMargin":-1.313645,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.019688,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.019688,"individualPollMAE":4.228785,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.313645,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.313645,"selectedQuestionIds":["30365"],"selectedPollIds":["25127"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"174","pollster":"Louisville Courier-Journal","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-4.686355,"selectedQuestionIds":["26469"],"selectedPollIds":["4604"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-7.686355,"selectedQuestionIds":["30541"],"selectedPollIds":["4351"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"163","race":"2018_Gov-G_TX","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Lupe Valdez","republican":"Greg Abbott","pollDem":38.6,"pollRep":54.7,"pollMargin":-16.1,"actualDem":42.507811,"actualRep":55.80665,"actualMargin":-13.298838,"actualDRShare":98.314461,"signedError":-2.801162,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.801162,"individualPollMAE":6.133721,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-13.298838,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"81","pollster":"Dixie Strategies","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":-12.701162,"selectedQuestionIds":["91000"],"selectedPollIds":["56562"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-8.3,"signedError":4.998838,"selectedQuestionIds":["91194"],"selectedPollIds":["56632"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-0.701162,"selectedQuestionIds":["90914"],"selectedPollIds":["56513"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1631","race":"2004_Sen-G_MD","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Barbara A. Mikulski","republican":"E. J. Pipkin","pollDem":66.0,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":37.0,"actualDem":64.803433,"actualRep":33.724301,"actualMargin":31.079132,"actualDRShare":98.527734,"signedError":5.920868,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.920868,"individualPollMAE":5.920868,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":31.079132,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":37.0,"signedError":5.920868,"selectedQuestionIds":["136984"],"selectedPollIds":["4455"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1632","race":"2004_Sen-G_MO","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Nancy Farmer","republican":"Christopher S. Bond","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":42.797079,"actualRep":56.092517,"actualMargin":-13.295438,"actualDRShare":98.889596,"signedError":-4.704562,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.704562,"individualPollMAE":4.704562,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-24","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-13.295438,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-3.704562,"selectedQuestionIds":["26480"],"selectedPollIds":["4529"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-5.704562,"selectedQuestionIds":["117368"],"selectedPollIds":["4330"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1633","race":"2004_Sen-G_NV","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Harry Reid","republican":"Richard Ziser","pollDem":58.5,"pollRep":34.5,"pollMargin":24.0,"actualDem":61.081909,"actualRep":35.137791,"actualMargin":25.944118,"actualDRShare":96.2197,"signedError":-1.944118,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.944118,"individualPollMAE":1.944118,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-26","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":25.944118,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":-1.944118,"selectedQuestionIds":["30424"],"selectedPollIds":["25186"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":-1.944118,"selectedQuestionIds":["26837"],"selectedPollIds":["4340"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1634","race":"2004_Sen-G_NH","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Doris R. Haddock","republican":"Judd Gregg","pollDem":25.666667,"pollRep":64.333333,"pollMargin":-38.666667,"actualDem":33.716896,"actualRep":66.178095,"actualMargin":-32.4612,"actualDRShare":99.894991,"signedError":-6.205467,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.205467,"individualPollMAE":6.205467,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-27","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-32.4612,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-40.0,"signedError":-7.5388,"selectedQuestionIds":["26343"],"selectedPollIds":["4367"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"107","pollster":"Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":-40.0,"signedError":-7.5388,"selectedQuestionIds":["26408"],"selectedPollIds":["4440"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-36.0,"signedError":-3.5388,"selectedQuestionIds":["30589"],"selectedPollIds":["4325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1635","race":"2004_Sen-G_NY","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Charles E. Schumer","republican":"Howard Mills","pollDem":72.0,"pollRep":16.0,"pollMargin":56.0,"actualDem":64.043241,"actualRep":21.819397,"actualMargin":42.223843,"actualDRShare":85.862638,"signedError":13.776157,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.776157,"individualPollMAE":13.776157,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":37.055658,"outcomeMarginCorrection":5.168185,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":56.0,"signedError":13.776157,"selectedQuestionIds":["26472"],"selectedPollIds":["4465"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1636","race":"2004_Sen-G_NC","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Erskine Bowles","republican":"Richard Burr","pollDem":44.88,"pollRep":46.42,"pollMargin":-1.54,"actualDem":47.018676,"actualRep":51.595844,"actualMargin":-4.577167,"actualDRShare":98.61452,"signedError":3.037167,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.037167,"individualPollMAE":3.2063,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.577167,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":6.577167,"selectedQuestionIds":["30375"],"selectedPollIds":["25137"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":0.3,"signedError":4.877167,"selectedQuestionIds":["26495"],"selectedPollIds":["4456"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":0.577167,"selectedQuestionIds":["30491"],"selectedPollIds":["25251"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-0.422833,"selectedQuestionIds":["30545"],"selectedPollIds":["4326"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"334","pollster":"The Tyson Group","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":3.577167,"selectedQuestionIds":["26771"],"selectedPollIds":["4590"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1638","race":"2004_Sen-G_OH","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Eric D. Fingerhut","republican":"George V. Voinovich","pollDem":32.5,"pollRep":61.5,"pollMargin":-29.0,"actualDem":36.145134,"actualRep":63.84941,"actualMargin":-27.704276,"actualDRShare":99.994545,"signedError":-1.295724,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.295724,"individualPollMAE":3.765241,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2004-10-24","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-27.704276,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":3.704276,"selectedQuestionIds":["26360"],"selectedPollIds":["4579"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":-38.0,"signedError":-10.295724,"selectedQuestionIds":["30426"],"selectedPollIds":["25188"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":-2.295724,"selectedQuestionIds":["26397"],"selectedPollIds":["4297"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":-0.295724,"selectedQuestionIds":["30551"],"selectedPollIds":["4313"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":-2.295724,"selectedQuestionIds":["30583"],"selectedPollIds":["25343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":3.704276,"selectedQuestionIds":["26845"],"selectedPollIds":["4331"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1639","race":"2004_Sen-G_OK","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Brad R. Carson","republican":"Tom Coburn","pollDem":39.966667,"pollRep":43.5,"pollMargin":-3.533333,"actualDem":41.244887,"actualRep":52.765325,"actualMargin":-11.520438,"actualDRShare":94.010213,"signedError":7.987105,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.987105,"individualPollMAE":7.987105,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.520438,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"56","pollster":"Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":6.520438,"selectedQuestionIds":["26357"],"selectedPollIds":["4435"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":12.520438,"selectedQuestionIds":["30376"],"selectedPollIds":["25138"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":6.520438,"selectedQuestionIds":["30493"],"selectedPollIds":["25253"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":-1.2,"signedError":10.320438,"selectedQuestionIds":["30506"],"selectedPollIds":["25266"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":3.520438,"selectedQuestionIds":["30555"],"selectedPollIds":["4359"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"383","pollster":"WPA Intelligence","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":8.520438,"selectedQuestionIds":["26800"],"selectedPollIds":["4518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"164","race":"2018_Gov-G_VT","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Christine Hallquist","republican":"Phil Scott","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":40.255466,"actualRep":55.187222,"actualMargin":-14.931755,"actualDRShare":95.442688,"signedError":4.931755,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.931755,"individualPollMAE":4.931755,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-31","2018-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-14.931755,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":4.931755,"selectedQuestionIds":["91257"],"selectedPollIds":["56663"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1641","race":"2004_Sen-G_PA","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Joe Hoeffel","republican":"Arlen Specter","pollDem":32.125,"pollRep":52.25,"pollMargin":-20.125,"actualDem":41.987442,"actualRep":52.617822,"actualMargin":-10.63038,"actualDRShare":94.605265,"signedError":-9.49462,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.49462,"individualPollMAE":9.49462,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.63038,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2004-10-21","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-10.36962,"selectedQuestionIds":["26401"],"selectedPollIds":["4587"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-7.36962,"selectedQuestionIds":["30429"],"selectedPollIds":["25191"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-11.36962,"selectedQuestionIds":["137159"],"selectedPollIds":["4621"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":-9.36962,"selectedQuestionIds":["26581"],"selectedPollIds":["4370"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-7.36962,"selectedQuestionIds":["30560"],"selectedPollIds":["4293"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"336","pollster":"Temple University Institute for Survey Research","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-11.36962,"selectedQuestionIds":["26772"],"selectedPollIds":["4536"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"377","pollster":"West Chester University","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-8.36962,"selectedQuestionIds":["26796"],"selectedPollIds":["4484"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-10.36962,"selectedQuestionIds":["26853"],"selectedPollIds":["4341"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1642","race":"2004_Sen-G_SC","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Inez Tenenbaum","republican":"Jim DeMint","pollDem":40.666667,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-8.333333,"actualDem":44.100597,"actualRep":53.666149,"actualMargin":-9.565552,"actualDRShare":97.766746,"signedError":1.232218,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.232218,"individualPollMAE":3.521851,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.565552,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":5.565552,"selectedQuestionIds":["26509"],"selectedPollIds":["4583"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"203","pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":1.565552,"selectedQuestionIds":["30434"],"selectedPollIds":["25196"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-3.434448,"selectedQuestionIds":["30565"],"selectedPollIds":["4543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1643","race":"2004_Sen-G_SD","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Tom Daschle","republican":"John R. Thune","pollDem":47.2,"pollRep":48.2,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":49.423806,"actualRep":50.576194,"actualMargin":-1.152387,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.152387,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.152387,"individualPollMAE":2.369523,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.152387,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.152387,"selectedQuestionIds":["30386"],"selectedPollIds":["25148"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.152387,"selectedQuestionIds":["26511"],"selectedPollIds":["4581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"203","pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-2.847613,"selectedQuestionIds":["26524"],"selectedPollIds":["4554"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.847613,"selectedQuestionIds":["117282"],"selectedPollIds":["63717"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.847613,"selectedQuestionIds":["30618"],"selectedPollIds":["25378"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1644","race":"2004_Sen-G_UT","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"R. Paul Van Dam","republican":"Robert F. Bennett","pollDem":22.5,"pollRep":63.0,"pollMargin":-40.5,"actualDem":28.402722,"actualRep":68.731176,"actualMargin":-40.328454,"actualDRShare":97.133898,"signedError":-0.171546,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.171546,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-23","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-40.328454,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-43.0,"signedError":-2.671546,"selectedQuestionIds":["120120"],"selectedPollIds":["55068"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"368","pollster":"Valley Research","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-38.0,"signedError":2.328454,"selectedQuestionIds":["30597"],"selectedPollIds":["25357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1646","race":"2004_Sen-G_WA","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Patty Murray","republican":"George R. Nethercutt","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":54.980485,"actualRep":42.736188,"actualMargin":12.244297,"actualDRShare":97.716674,"signedError":-2.244297,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.244297,"individualPollMAE":4.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.244297,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":1.755703,"selectedQuestionIds":["26517"],"selectedPollIds":["4447"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-6.244297,"selectedQuestionIds":["26756"],"selectedPollIds":["4328"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1647","race":"2004_Sen-G_WI","series":"senate","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Russ Feingold","republican":"Tim Michels","pollDem":53.5,"pollRep":39.25,"pollMargin":14.25,"actualDem":55.350483,"actualRep":44.111741,"actualMargin":11.238742,"actualDRShare":99.462224,"signedError":3.011258,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.011258,"individualPollMAE":6.130629,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.238742,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":2.761258,"selectedQuestionIds":["30352"],"selectedPollIds":["25114"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-6.238742,"selectedQuestionIds":["30577"],"selectedPollIds":["25337"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"365","pollster":"University of Wisconsin Survey Center","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":3.761258,"selectedQuestionIds":["26789"],"selectedPollIds":["4507"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":11.761258,"selectedQuestionIds":["26866"],"selectedPollIds":["4342"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1648","race":"2002_Sen-G_AL","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Susan Parker","republican":"Jeff Sessions","pollDem":28.0,"pollRep":60.5,"pollMargin":-32.5,"actualDem":39.827704,"actualRep":58.577053,"actualMargin":-18.749349,"actualDRShare":98.404757,"signedError":-13.750651,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.750651,"individualPollMAE":13.750651,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-23","2002-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-18.749349,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"344","pollster":"University of Alabama at Birmingham","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":-35.0,"signedError":-16.250651,"selectedQuestionIds":["30883"],"selectedPollIds":["54543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"361","pollster":"University of South Alabama Polling Group","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":-11.250651,"selectedQuestionIds":["137763"],"selectedPollIds":["73448"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"165","race":"2018_Gov-G_WI","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Tony Evers","republican":"Scott Walker","pollDem":47.633333,"pollRep":45.7,"pollMargin":1.933333,"actualDem":49.538138,"actualRep":48.444848,"actualMargin":1.09329,"actualDRShare":97.982986,"signedError":0.840044,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.840044,"individualPollMAE":1.631097,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-26","2018-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":1.09329,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":4.8,"signedError":3.70671,"selectedQuestionIds":["91271"],"selectedPollIds":["56671"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.09329,"selectedQuestionIds":["91130"],"selectedPollIds":["56602"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-0.09329,"selectedQuestionIds":["91533"],"selectedPollIds":["56805"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1650","race":"2002_Sen-G_AR","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Mark L. Pryor","republican":"Tim Hutchinson","pollDem":51.666667,"pollRep":42.333333,"pollMargin":9.333333,"actualDem":53.89562,"actualRep":46.10438,"actualMargin":7.79124,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.542093,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.542093,"individualPollMAE":1.542093,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2002-10-25","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.79124,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.20876,"selectedQuestionIds":["30709"],"selectedPollIds":["25469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"242","pollster":"Opinion Research Associates","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.20876,"selectedQuestionIds":["30799"],"selectedPollIds":["25559"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":4.20876,"selectedQuestionIds":["30900"],"selectedPollIds":["25660"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1651","race":"2002_Sen-G_CO","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Tom Strickland","republican":"Wayne A. Allard","pollDem":44.571429,"pollRep":45.5,"pollMargin":-0.928571,"actualDem":45.769242,"actualRep":50.695722,"actualMargin":-4.92648,"actualDRShare":96.464965,"signedError":3.997909,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.997909,"individualPollMAE":4.611349,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2002-10-30","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.92648,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"51","pollster":"Ciruli Associates","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":2.5,"signedError":7.42648,"selectedQuestionIds":["136806","30666"],"selectedPollIds":["25426","72924"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"329","pollster":"Drake Research & Strategy, Inc.","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":8.92648,"selectedQuestionIds":["30863"],"selectedPollIds":["25623"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":2.92648,"selectedQuestionIds":["30710"],"selectedPollIds":["25470"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"140","pollster":"Hill Research Consultants","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-1.07352,"selectedQuestionIds":["117193"],"selectedPollIds":["63677"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":0.92648,"selectedQuestionIds":["117423"],"selectedPollIds":["63770"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-1.07352,"selectedQuestionIds":["117503"],"selectedPollIds":["63815"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":9.92648,"selectedQuestionIds":["30905"],"selectedPollIds":["25665"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1653","race":"2002_Sen-G_GA","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Max Cleland","republican":"Saxby Chambliss","pollDem":47.5,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":3.5,"actualDem":45.895854,"actualRep":52.734293,"actualMargin":-6.838439,"actualDRShare":98.630146,"signedError":10.338439,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.338439,"individualPollMAE":10.338439,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-27","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-6.838439,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"194","pollster":"Marketing Workshop","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":11.838439,"selectedQuestionIds":["30652"],"selectedPollIds":["25412"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":8.838439,"selectedQuestionIds":["30909"],"selectedPollIds":["25669"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1654","race":"2002_Sen-G_ID","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Alan Blinken","republican":"Larry E. Craig","pollDem":30.0,"pollRep":61.0,"pollMargin":-31.0,"actualDem":32.548514,"actualRep":65.161892,"actualMargin":-32.613378,"actualDRShare":97.710406,"signedError":1.613378,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.613378,"individualPollMAE":1.613378,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-32.613378,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"128","pollster":"Greg Smith & Associates","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-31.0,"signedError":1.613378,"selectedQuestionIds":["30732"],"selectedPollIds":["25492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1655","race":"2002_Sen-G_IL","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Richard J. Durbin","republican":"Jim Durkin","pollDem":53.5,"pollRep":31.75,"pollMargin":21.75,"actualDem":60.334267,"actualRep":38.020065,"actualMargin":22.314203,"actualDRShare":98.354332,"signedError":-0.564203,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.564203,"individualPollMAE":2.25,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":22.314203,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-2.314203,"selectedQuestionIds":["30755"],"selectedPollIds":["25515"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":1.685797,"selectedQuestionIds":["30761"],"selectedPollIds":["25521"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-3.314203,"selectedQuestionIds":["117383"],"selectedPollIds":["54700"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":1.685797,"selectedQuestionIds":["30911"],"selectedPollIds":["25671"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1656","race":"2002_Sen-G_IA","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Tom Harkin","republican":"Greg Ganske","pollDem":53.533333,"pollRep":35.866667,"pollMargin":17.666667,"actualDem":54.177651,"actualRep":43.779,"actualMargin":10.398651,"actualDRShare":97.95665,"signedError":7.268016,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.268016,"individualPollMAE":8.20045,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.398651,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"640","pollster":"Gazette Communications","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":11.601349,"selectedQuestionIds":["136900"],"selectedPollIds":["72982"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.398651,"selectedQuestionIds":["30853"],"selectedPollIds":["25613"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":11.601349,"selectedQuestionIds":["117379"],"selectedPollIds":["54668"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1658","race":"2002_Sen-G_KY","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Lois Combs Weinberg","republican":"Mitch McConnell","pollDem":29.0,"pollRep":66.0,"pollMargin":-37.0,"actualDem":35.324795,"actualRep":64.675205,"actualMargin":-29.35041,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-7.64959,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.64959,"individualPollMAE":7.64959,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-29","2002-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-29.35041,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":-37.0,"signedError":-7.64959,"selectedQuestionIds":["117429"],"selectedPollIds":["63776"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"166","race":"2018_Gov-G_WY","series":"governor","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WY","democrat":"Mary Throne","republican":"Mark Gordon","pollDem":27.0,"pollRep":61.0,"pollMargin":-34.0,"actualDem":27.536681,"actualRep":67.119338,"actualMargin":-39.582657,"actualDRShare":94.656019,"signedError":5.582657,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.582657,"individualPollMAE":5.582657,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-39.582657,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-34.0,"signedError":5.582657,"selectedQuestionIds":["91445"],"selectedPollIds":["56761"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1661","race":"2002_Sen-G_ME","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Chellie M. Pingree","republican":"Susan M. Collins","pollDem":33.5,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-23.5,"actualDem":41.564352,"actualRep":58.435648,"actualMargin":-16.871295,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-6.628705,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.628705,"individualPollMAE":6.628705,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-25","2002-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-16.871295,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"249","pollster":"Pan Atlantic Research","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-2.128705,"selectedQuestionIds":["117233"],"selectedPollIds":["54765"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":-11.128705,"selectedQuestionIds":["117486"],"selectedPollIds":["54764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1663","race":"2002_Sen-G_MI","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Carl Levin","republican":"Andrew Rocky Raczkowski","pollDem":60.5,"pollRep":30.5,"pollMargin":30.0,"actualDem":60.608503,"actualRep":37.885467,"actualMargin":22.723036,"actualDRShare":98.49397,"signedError":7.276964,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.276964,"individualPollMAE":7.276964,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-29","2002-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":22.723036,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":7.276964,"selectedQuestionIds":["30691"],"selectedPollIds":["25451"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":7.276964,"selectedQuestionIds":["30792"],"selectedPollIds":["25552"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1664","race":"2002_Sen-G_MN","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Walter F. Mondale","republican":"Norm Coleman","pollDem":46.025,"pollRep":44.975,"pollMargin":1.05,"actualDem":47.33556,"actualRep":49.52886,"actualMargin":-2.1933,"actualDRShare":96.86442,"signedError":3.2433,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.2433,"individualPollMAE":5.14665,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2002-10-31","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.1933,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-3.8067,"selectedQuestionIds":["30764"],"selectedPollIds":["25524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"315","pollster":"Minneapolis Star Tribune","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":7.1933,"selectedQuestionIds":["30857"],"selectedPollIds":["25617"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":0.2,"signedError":2.3933,"selectedQuestionIds":["137223"],"selectedPollIds":["73209"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":7.1933,"selectedQuestionIds":["30914"],"selectedPollIds":["25674"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1666","race":"2002_Sen-GS_MO","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"GS","location":"MO","democrat":"Jean Carnahan","republican":"Jim Talent","pollDem":43.8,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-4.2,"actualDem":48.666823,"actualRep":49.798788,"actualMargin":-1.131965,"actualDRShare":98.465611,"signedError":-3.068035,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.068035,"individualPollMAE":4.320821,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2002-10-27","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.131965,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"10","pollster":"American Viewpoint","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-5.868035,"selectedQuestionIds":["30641"],"selectedPollIds":["25401"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-2.868035,"selectedQuestionIds":["30711"],"selectedPollIds":["25471"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-3.868035,"selectedQuestionIds":["30754"],"selectedPollIds":["25514"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.131965,"selectedQuestionIds":["117431"],"selectedPollIds":["63778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-5.868035,"selectedQuestionIds":["30916"],"selectedPollIds":["25676"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1667","race":"2002_Sen-G_MT","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Max Baucus","republican":"Mike Taylor","pollDem":59.0,"pollRep":28.0,"pollMargin":31.0,"actualDem":62.735004,"actualRep":31.730248,"actualMargin":31.004756,"actualDRShare":94.465252,"signedError":-0.004756,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.004756,"individualPollMAE":0.004756,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-23","2002-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":31.004756,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":31.0,"signedError":-0.004756,"selectedQuestionIds":["30765"],"selectedPollIds":["25525"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1668","race":"2002_Sen-G_NE","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Charlie Matulka","republican":"Chuck Hagel","pollDem":10.0,"pollRep":82.0,"pollMargin":-72.0,"actualDem":14.637133,"actualRep":82.762168,"actualMargin":-68.125035,"actualDRShare":97.399301,"signedError":-3.874965,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.874965,"individualPollMAE":3.874965,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-25","2002-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-68.125035,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"178","pollster":"MSR Group","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":-72.0,"signedError":-3.874965,"selectedQuestionIds":["30791"],"selectedPollIds":["25551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1669","race":"2002_Sen-G_NH","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Jeanne Shaheen","republican":"John E. Sununu","pollDem":45.86,"pollRep":44.3,"pollMargin":1.56,"actualDem":46.401646,"actualRep":50.81888,"actualMargin":-4.417234,"actualDRShare":97.220526,"signedError":5.977234,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.977234,"individualPollMAE":5.977234,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.417234,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":0.417234,"selectedQuestionIds":["30629"],"selectedPollIds":["25389"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"26","pollster":"Becker Institute","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":10.417234,"selectedQuestionIds":["117085"],"selectedPollIds":["54807"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"107","pollster":"Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":9.417234,"selectedQuestionIds":["30708"],"selectedPollIds":["25468"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":1.8,"signedError":6.217234,"selectedQuestionIds":["137224"],"selectedPollIds":["73210"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":3.417234,"selectedQuestionIds":["30890"],"selectedPollIds":["25650"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"167","race":"2018_House-G_AK-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"AK-1","democrat":"Alyse S. Galvin","republican":"Don Young","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":46.497097,"actualRep":53.081874,"actualMargin":-6.584776,"actualDRShare":99.578971,"signedError":7.584776,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.584776,"individualPollMAE":7.584776,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-6.584776,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"155","pollster":"Alaska Survey Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":7.584776,"selectedQuestionIds":["91243"],"selectedPollIds":["56603"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1670","race":"2002_Sen-G_NJ","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Frank R. Lautenberg","republican":"Douglas R. Forrester","pollDem":48.285714,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":9.285714,"actualDem":53.876306,"actualRep":43.947612,"actualMargin":9.928695,"actualDRShare":97.823918,"signedError":-0.64298,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.64298,"individualPollMAE":1.867329,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.928695,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-0.928695,"selectedQuestionIds":["30700"],"selectedPollIds":["25460"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"760","pollster":"Gannett New Jersey","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-4.928695,"selectedQuestionIds":["30713"],"selectedPollIds":["25473"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-2.928695,"selectedQuestionIds":["30771"],"selectedPollIds":["25531"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":1.071305,"selectedQuestionIds":["30809"],"selectedPollIds":["25569"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":2.071305,"selectedQuestionIds":["30844"],"selectedPollIds":["25604"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":0.071305,"selectedQuestionIds":["117436"],"selectedPollIds":["63783"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":1.071305,"selectedQuestionIds":["30925"],"selectedPollIds":["25685"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1671","race":"2002_Sen-G_NM","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Gloria Tristani","republican":"Pete V. Domenici","pollDem":27.5,"pollRep":63.0,"pollMargin":-35.5,"actualDem":34.957231,"actualRep":65.042769,"actualMargin":-30.085539,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.414461,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.414461,"individualPollMAE":5.414461,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-30.085539,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":-2.914461,"selectedQuestionIds":["30772"],"selectedPollIds":["25532"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":-38.0,"signedError":-7.914461,"selectedQuestionIds":["30812"],"selectedPollIds":["25572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1672","race":"2002_Sen-G_NC","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Erskine Bowles","republican":"Elizabeth H. Dole","pollDem":41.8,"pollRep":47.2,"pollMargin":-5.4,"actualDem":44.955025,"actualRep":53.56358,"actualMargin":-8.608555,"actualDRShare":98.518605,"signedError":3.208555,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.208555,"individualPollMAE":3.208555,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.608555,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"89","pollster":"Ethridge & Associates LLC","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.608555,"selectedQuestionIds":["120119"],"selectedPollIds":["64864"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":5.608555,"selectedQuestionIds":["136888"],"selectedPollIds":["72973"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":2.608555,"selectedQuestionIds":["30769"],"selectedPollIds":["25529"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":4.608555,"selectedQuestionIds":["117446"],"selectedPollIds":["63793"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.608555,"selectedQuestionIds":["30922"],"selectedPollIds":["25682"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1673","race":"2002_Sen-G_OK","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"David Walters","republican":"James M. Inhofe","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-17.0,"actualDem":36.309926,"actualRep":57.302165,"actualMargin":-20.992239,"actualDRShare":93.612091,"signedError":3.992239,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.992239,"individualPollMAE":3.992239,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-11-02","2002-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.992239,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":3.992239,"selectedQuestionIds":["117390"],"selectedPollIds":["54882"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1674","race":"2002_Sen-G_OR","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Bill Bradbury","republican":"Gordon H. Smith","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":55.5,"pollMargin":-20.5,"actualDem":39.606193,"actualRep":56.208586,"actualMargin":-16.602392,"actualDRShare":95.814779,"signedError":-3.897608,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.897608,"individualPollMAE":3.897608,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-25","2002-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-16.602392,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-2.397608,"selectedQuestionIds":["30688"],"selectedPollIds":["25448"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"290","pollster":"Riley Research Associates","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-5.397608,"selectedQuestionIds":["30838"],"selectedPollIds":["25598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1676","race":"2002_Sen-G_SC","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Alex Sanders","republican":"Lindsey Graham","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":44.188385,"actualRep":54.402346,"actualMargin":-10.213961,"actualDRShare":98.590731,"signedError":1.213961,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.213961,"individualPollMAE":8.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.213961,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-6.786039,"selectedQuestionIds":["30773"],"selectedPollIds":["25533"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":9.213961,"selectedQuestionIds":["117396"],"selectedPollIds":["54933"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1677","race":"2002_Sen-G_SD","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Tim Johnson","republican":"John R. Thune","pollDem":45.88,"pollRep":46.5,"pollMargin":-0.62,"actualDem":49.623853,"actualRep":49.466224,"actualMargin":0.157629,"actualDRShare":99.090077,"signedError":-0.777629,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.777629,"individualPollMAE":2.251526,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.157629,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.842371,"selectedQuestionIds":["30727"],"selectedPollIds":["25487"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.157629,"selectedQuestionIds":["30712"],"selectedPollIds":["25472"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.842371,"selectedQuestionIds":["30776"],"selectedPollIds":["25536"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":-0.1,"signedError":-0.257629,"selectedQuestionIds":["137225"],"selectedPollIds":["73211"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.157629,"selectedQuestionIds":["30929"],"selectedPollIds":["25689"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1678","race":"2002_Sen-G_TN","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Bob Clement","republican":"Lamar Alexander","pollDem":40.5,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-10.5,"actualDem":44.338639,"actualRep":54.279142,"actualMargin":-9.940503,"actualDRShare":98.617781,"signedError":-0.559497,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.559497,"individualPollMAE":0.559497,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.940503,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-0.059497,"selectedQuestionIds":["30778"],"selectedPollIds":["25538"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-1.059497,"selectedQuestionIds":["117398"],"selectedPollIds":["54950"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1679","race":"2002_Sen-G_TX","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Ron Kirk","republican":"John Cornyn","pollDem":42.2,"pollRep":47.4,"pollMargin":-5.2,"actualDem":43.32638,"actualRep":55.299875,"actualMargin":-11.973495,"actualDRShare":98.626255,"signedError":6.773495,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.773495,"individualPollMAE":6.773495,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2002-10-27","2002-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.973495,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"32","pollster":"Blum & Weprin Associates","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":2.973495,"selectedQuestionIds":["30661"],"selectedPollIds":["25421"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"105","pollster":"Frank N. Magid Associates Inc.","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":12.973495,"selectedQuestionIds":["137171"],"selectedPollIds":["73170"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"286","pollster":"Rice University","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":5.973495,"selectedQuestionIds":["30835"],"selectedPollIds":["25595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-31","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":3.973495,"selectedQuestionIds":["117401"],"selectedPollIds":["54973"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2002-11-03","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":7.973495,"selectedQuestionIds":["30935"],"selectedPollIds":["25695"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1681","race":"2002_Sen-G_WV","series":"senate","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"John D. Rockefeller, IV","republican":"Jay Wolfe","pollDem":72.0,"pollRep":17.0,"pollMargin":55.0,"actualDem":63.111355,"actualRep":36.888645,"actualMargin":26.222709,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":28.777291,"absoluteAverageMiss":28.777291,"individualPollMAE":28.777291,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-23","2002-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":26.222709,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"273","pollster":"RMS Research","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":55.0,"signedError":28.777291,"selectedQuestionIds":["137456"],"selectedPollIds":["64227"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1684","race":"2000_Sen-G_CA","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Dianne Feinstein","republican":"Tom Campbell","pollDem":51.25,"pollRep":37.75,"pollMargin":13.5,"actualDem":55.842817,"actualRep":36.586939,"actualMargin":19.255878,"actualDRShare":92.429756,"signedError":-5.755878,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.755878,"individualPollMAE":6.127939,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":19.255878,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":0.744122,"selectedQuestionIds":["30979"],"selectedPollIds":["6300"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-7.255878,"selectedQuestionIds":["117147"],"selectedPollIds":["63547"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-9.255878,"selectedQuestionIds":["117247"],"selectedPollIds":["63628"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-7.255878,"selectedQuestionIds":["117406"],"selectedPollIds":["63744"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1685","race":"2000_Sen-G_CT","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Joseph I. Lieberman","republican":"Phil Giordano","pollDem":61.0,"pollRep":34.0,"pollMargin":27.0,"actualDem":63.214112,"actualRep":34.171458,"actualMargin":29.042654,"actualDRShare":97.38557,"signedError":-2.042654,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.042654,"individualPollMAE":2.042654,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-11-03","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":29.042654,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":27.0,"signedError":-2.042654,"selectedQuestionIds":["117150"],"selectedPollIds":["63549"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1686","race":"2000_Sen-G_DE","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"DE","democrat":"Thomas R. Carper","republican":"William V. Roth Jr.","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":1.5,"actualDem":55.525959,"actualRep":43.698489,"actualMargin":11.82747,"actualDRShare":99.224448,"signedError":-10.32747,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.32747,"individualPollMAE":10.32747,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-30","2000-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.82747,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-11.82747,"selectedQuestionIds":["31008"],"selectedPollIds":["25768"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-8.82747,"selectedQuestionIds":["117249"],"selectedPollIds":["63637"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1687","race":"2000_Sen-G_FL","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Bill Nelson","republican":"Bill McCollum","pollDem":46.833333,"pollRep":43.166667,"pollMargin":3.666667,"actualDem":51.043611,"actualRep":46.192116,"actualMargin":4.851495,"actualDRShare":97.235728,"signedError":-1.184828,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.184828,"individualPollMAE":2.666667,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2000-10-28","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.851495,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-0.851495,"selectedQuestionIds":["117151"],"selectedPollIds":["63550"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.148505,"selectedQuestionIds":["27289"],"selectedPollIds":["6220"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-7.851495,"selectedQuestionIds":["117251"],"selectedPollIds":["63640"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.148505,"selectedQuestionIds":["117407"],"selectedPollIds":["63750"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"99","pollster":"The Florida Poll","date":"2000-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.148505,"selectedQuestionIds":["31070"],"selectedPollIds":["25830"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.851495,"selectedQuestionIds":["120634"],"selectedPollIds":["65023"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1689","race":"2000_Sen-G_HI","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Daniel K. Akaka","republican":"John Stanley Carroll","pollDem":62.0,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":29.0,"actualDem":72.684688,"actualRep":24.50676,"actualMargin":48.177928,"actualDRShare":97.191448,"signedError":-19.177928,"absoluteAverageMiss":19.177928,"individualPollMAE":19.177928,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-11-03","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":48.177928,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":-19.177928,"selectedQuestionIds":["117158"],"selectedPollIds":["63552"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1690","race":"2000_Sen-G_IN","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"David L. Johnson","republican":"Richard G. Lugar","pollDem":17.5,"pollRep":70.0,"pollMargin":-52.5,"actualDem":31.851116,"actualRep":66.56433,"actualMargin":-34.713214,"actualDRShare":98.415446,"signedError":-17.786786,"absoluteAverageMiss":17.786786,"individualPollMAE":17.786786,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-27","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-34.713214,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-46.0,"signedError":-11.286786,"selectedQuestionIds":["117134"],"selectedPollIds":["54454"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":-59.0,"signedError":-24.286786,"selectedQuestionIds":["27280"],"selectedPollIds":["54450"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1691","race":"2000_Sen-G_ME","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Mark W. Lawrence","republican":"Olympia J. Snowe","pollDem":21.5,"pollRep":65.0,"pollMargin":-43.5,"actualDem":31.058702,"actualRep":68.941298,"actualMargin":-37.882597,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.617403,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.617403,"individualPollMAE":5.617403,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-37.882597,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-42.0,"signedError":-4.117403,"selectedQuestionIds":["117159"],"selectedPollIds":["63560"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"184","pollster":"Market Decisions Research","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":-45.0,"signedError":-7.117403,"selectedQuestionIds":["27279"],"selectedPollIds":["6400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1692","race":"2000_Sen-G_MD","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Paul S. Sarbanes","republican":"Paul H. Rappaport","pollDem":60.25,"pollRep":33.5,"pollMargin":26.75,"actualDem":63.178092,"actualRep":36.734231,"actualMargin":26.443861,"actualDRShare":99.912322,"signedError":0.306139,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.306139,"individualPollMAE":4.25,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-25","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":26.443861,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"121","pollster":"Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":33.0,"signedError":6.556139,"selectedQuestionIds":["30993"],"selectedPollIds":["6371"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":-1.443861,"selectedQuestionIds":["117160"],"selectedPollIds":["63559"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":2.556139,"selectedQuestionIds":["27295"],"selectedPollIds":["6363"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-6.443861,"selectedQuestionIds":["117255"],"selectedPollIds":["63624"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1693","race":"2000_Sen-G_MA","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Edward M. Kennedy","republican":"Jack E. Robinson","pollDem":64.75,"pollRep":13.0,"pollMargin":51.75,"actualDem":69.10976,"actualRep":12.22879,"actualMargin":56.880969,"actualDRShare":81.33855,"signedError":-5.130969,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.130969,"individualPollMAE":5.130969,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":56.881843,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.000874,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":53.0,"signedError":-3.880969,"selectedQuestionIds":["117162"],"selectedPollIds":["63558"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"160","pollster":"KRC Research","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":52.0,"signedError":-4.880969,"selectedQuestionIds":["27268"],"selectedPollIds":["6367"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":49.0,"signedError":-7.880969,"selectedQuestionIds":["27435"],"selectedPollIds":["6366"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"354","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":53.0,"signedError":-3.880969,"selectedQuestionIds":["27473"],"selectedPollIds":["6341"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1694","race":"2000_Sen-G_MI","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Debbie Stabenow","republican":"Spencer Abraham","pollDem":43.714286,"pollRep":47.142857,"pollMargin":-3.428571,"actualDem":49.474756,"actualRep":47.860935,"actualMargin":1.613822,"actualDRShare":97.335691,"signedError":-5.042393,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.042393,"individualPollMAE":5.724158,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2000-10-25","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.613822,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-6.613822,"selectedQuestionIds":["27218"],"selectedPollIds":["6172"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.613822,"selectedQuestionIds":["117163"],"selectedPollIds":["63561"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"193","pollster":"Marketing Resource Group (MRG)","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-9.613822,"selectedQuestionIds":["27364"],"selectedPollIds":["6368"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-4.613822,"selectedQuestionIds":["27355"],"selectedPollIds":["6249"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-7.613822,"selectedQuestionIds":["117259"],"selectedPollIds":["63645"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-7.613822,"selectedQuestionIds":["117408"],"selectedPollIds":["63751"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":2.386178,"selectedQuestionIds":["31156"],"selectedPollIds":["25916"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1695","race":"2000_Sen-G_MN","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Mark Dayton","republican":"Rod Grams","pollDem":46.75,"pollRep":40.5,"pollMargin":6.25,"actualDem":48.83419,"actualRep":43.292637,"actualMargin":5.541554,"actualDRShare":92.126827,"signedError":0.708446,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.708446,"individualPollMAE":3.25,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-26","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.541554,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":4.458446,"selectedQuestionIds":["117164"],"selectedPollIds":["63562"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.541554,"selectedQuestionIds":["27300"],"selectedPollIds":["6324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"315","pollster":"Minneapolis Star Tribune","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":3.458446,"selectedQuestionIds":["31121"],"selectedPollIds":["6213"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.541554,"selectedQuestionIds":["31126"],"selectedPollIds":["25886"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1697","race":"2000_Sen-G_MO","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Mel Carnahan","republican":"John Ashcroft","pollDem":48.666667,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":0.666667,"actualDem":50.466593,"actualRep":48.39341,"actualMargin":2.073183,"actualDRShare":98.860003,"signedError":-1.406516,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.406516,"individualPollMAE":1.406516,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.073183,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.073183,"selectedQuestionIds":["117135"],"selectedPollIds":["54469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.073183,"selectedQuestionIds":["117261"],"selectedPollIds":["63631"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.073183,"selectedQuestionIds":["120635"],"selectedPollIds":["65025"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1699","race":"2000_Sen-G_NE","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Ben Nelson","republican":"Don Stenberg","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":41.5,"pollMargin":9.5,"actualDem":50.999206,"actualRep":48.815917,"actualMargin":2.183289,"actualDRShare":99.815122,"signedError":7.316711,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.316711,"individualPollMAE":7.316711,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-26","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.183289,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.816711,"selectedQuestionIds":["117165"],"selectedPollIds":["63563"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":9.816711,"selectedQuestionIds":["27439"],"selectedPollIds":["6352"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"17","race":"2014_Sen-G_GA","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Mary Michelle Nunn","republican":"David A. Perdue","pollDem":44.48,"pollRep":47.15,"pollMargin":-2.67,"actualDem":45.206353,"actualRep":52.889063,"actualMargin":-7.68271,"actualDRShare":98.095416,"signedError":5.01271,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.01271,"individualPollMAE":5.076168,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.68271,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":10.68271,"selectedQuestionIds":["40979"],"selectedPollIds":["33793"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":4.68271,"selectedQuestionIds":["42158"],"selectedPollIds":["34390"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":-4.2,"signedError":3.48271,"selectedQuestionIds":["42139"],"selectedPollIds":["34389"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":3.68271,"selectedQuestionIds":["42166"],"selectedPollIds":["34327"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-0.31729,"selectedQuestionIds":["42183"],"selectedPollIds":["34364"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":6.68271,"selectedQuestionIds":["42195"],"selectedPollIds":["34329"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":7.68271,"selectedQuestionIds":["42191"],"selectedPollIds":["34335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":4.68271,"selectedQuestionIds":["42094"],"selectedPollIds":["34359"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.68271,"selectedQuestionIds":["42235"],"selectedPollIds":["34484"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-1.5,"signedError":6.18271,"selectedQuestionIds":["42144"],"selectedPollIds":["34361"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1700","race":"2000_Sen-G_NV","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Ed Bernstein","republican":"John Ensign","pollDem":39.666667,"pollRep":53.666667,"pollMargin":-14.0,"actualDem":39.658708,"actualRep":55.043311,"actualMargin":-15.384603,"actualDRShare":94.702019,"signedError":1.384603,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.384603,"individualPollMAE":2.871799,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-10-27","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.398084,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.013482,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":6.384603,"selectedQuestionIds":["117168"],"selectedPollIds":["63566"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-1.615397,"selectedQuestionIds":["27316"],"selectedPollIds":["6325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-0.615397,"selectedQuestionIds":["117409"],"selectedPollIds":["63745"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1701","race":"2000_Sen-G_NJ","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Jon Stevens Corzine","republican":"Bob Franks","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":42.142857,"pollMargin":2.857143,"actualDem":50.112944,"actualRep":47.096359,"actualMargin":3.016585,"actualDRShare":97.209303,"signedError":-0.159442,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.159442,"individualPollMAE":4.426202,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.016585,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"760","pollster":"Gannett New Jersey","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":1.983415,"selectedQuestionIds":["27251"],"selectedPollIds":["6163"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.983415,"selectedQuestionIds":["117172"],"selectedPollIds":["63564"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-5.016585,"selectedQuestionIds":["27390"],"selectedPollIds":["6175"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":6.983415,"selectedQuestionIds":["27443"],"selectedPollIds":["6383"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-4.016585,"selectedQuestionIds":["117265"],"selectedPollIds":["63653"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":4.983415,"selectedQuestionIds":["117412"],"selectedPollIds":["63733"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-7.016585,"selectedQuestionIds":["31127"],"selectedPollIds":["25887"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1702","race":"2000_Sen-G_NM","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Jeff Bingaman","republican":"Bill Redmond","pollDem":60.5,"pollRep":32.5,"pollMargin":28.0,"actualDem":61.701095,"actualRep":38.253953,"actualMargin":23.447142,"actualDRShare":99.955049,"signedError":4.552858,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.552858,"individualPollMAE":4.552858,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-11-01","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":23.447142,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":2.552858,"selectedQuestionIds":["117174"],"selectedPollIds":["63565"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":6.552858,"selectedQuestionIds":["31028"],"selectedPollIds":["6171"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1703","race":"2000_Sen-G_NY","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Rick Lazio","pollDem":49.888889,"pollRep":43.888889,"pollMargin":6.0,"actualDem":53.843276,"actualRep":41.894707,"actualMargin":11.948569,"actualDRShare":95.737983,"signedError":-5.948569,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.948569,"individualPollMAE":5.959998,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":16,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2000-10-27","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.038315,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.089746,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"32","pollster":"Blum & Weprin Associates","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-4.948569,"selectedQuestionIds":["27192"],"selectedPollIds":["6190"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-3.948569,"selectedQuestionIds":["27463"],"selectedPollIds":["6343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-6.948569,"selectedQuestionIds":["117175"],"selectedPollIds":["63567"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-7.948569,"selectedQuestionIds":["27274"],"selectedPollIds":["6142"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-10.948569,"selectedQuestionIds":["27383"],"selectedPollIds":["6281"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":0.051431,"selectedQuestionIds":["27397"],"selectedPollIds":["6165"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-3.948569,"selectedQuestionIds":["117267"],"selectedPollIds":["63652"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-5.948569,"selectedQuestionIds":["117413"],"selectedPollIds":["63746"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-8.948569,"selectedQuestionIds":["120636"],"selectedPollIds":["65026"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1705","race":"2000_Sen-G_OH","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Ted Celeste","republican":"Mike DeWine","pollDem":34.016667,"pollRep":58.5,"pollMargin":-24.483333,"actualDem":35.85384,"actualRep":59.91529,"actualMargin":-24.061449,"actualDRShare":95.76913,"signedError":-0.421884,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.421884,"individualPollMAE":2.483333,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2000-10-31","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-24.061449,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":-2.938551,"selectedQuestionIds":["27201"],"selectedPollIds":["6299"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":1.061449,"selectedQuestionIds":["117176"],"selectedPollIds":["63568"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":0.061449,"selectedQuestionIds":["27321"],"selectedPollIds":["6167"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":5.061449,"selectedQuestionIds":["117414"],"selectedPollIds":["63748"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-28.9,"signedError":-4.838551,"selectedQuestionIds":["31136"],"selectedPollIds":["25896"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-25.0,"signedError":-0.938551,"selectedQuestionIds":["120637"],"selectedPollIds":["65027"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1706","race":"2000_Sen-G_PA","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Ron Klink","republican":"Rick Santorum","pollDem":35.428571,"pollRep":53.428571,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":45.509086,"actualRep":52.416076,"actualMargin":-6.90699,"actualDRShare":97.925162,"signedError":-11.09301,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.09301,"individualPollMAE":11.09301,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2000-10-28","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-6.90699,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"77","pollster":"Decision Forecasting","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-14.09301,"selectedQuestionIds":["27209"],"selectedPollIds":["6194"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-10.09301,"selectedQuestionIds":["136955"],"selectedPollIds":["63571"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-12.09301,"selectedQuestionIds":["27323"],"selectedPollIds":["6174"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"210","pollster":"Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs","date":"2000-10-28","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-14.09301,"selectedQuestionIds":["27350"],"selectedPollIds":["6326"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-7.09301,"selectedQuestionIds":["117272"],"selectedPollIds":["63654"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-9.09301,"selectedQuestionIds":["117415"],"selectedPollIds":["63749"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-11.09301,"selectedQuestionIds":["120566"],"selectedPollIds":["65009"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1707","race":"2000_Sen-G_RI","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Robert A. Weygand","republican":"Lincoln Chafee","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-26.0,"actualDem":41.145207,"actualRep":56.876528,"actualMargin":-15.731322,"actualDRShare":98.021735,"signedError":-10.268678,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.268678,"individualPollMAE":10.268678,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.731322,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":-10.268678,"selectedQuestionIds":["117416"],"selectedPollIds":["63742"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1708","race":"2000_Sen-G_TN","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Jeff Clark","republican":"Bill Frist","pollDem":31.0,"pollRep":60.75,"pollMargin":-29.75,"actualDem":32.207187,"actualRep":65.095693,"actualMargin":-32.888506,"actualDRShare":97.30288,"signedError":3.138506,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.138506,"individualPollMAE":3.694253,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-28","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-32.888506,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":5.888506,"selectedQuestionIds":["117178"],"selectedPollIds":["63572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":0.888506,"selectedQuestionIds":["27327"],"selectedPollIds":["6154"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-28","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":6.888506,"selectedQuestionIds":["117275"],"selectedPollIds":["63626"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-34.0,"signedError":-1.111494,"selectedQuestionIds":["120638"],"selectedPollIds":["65028"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1709","race":"2000_Sen-G_TX","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Gene Kelly","republican":"Kay Bailey Hutchison","pollDem":27.0,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-32.0,"actualDem":32.307524,"actualRep":65.076219,"actualMargin":-32.768695,"actualDRShare":97.383744,"signedError":0.768695,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.768695,"individualPollMAE":0.768695,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-11-01","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-32.768695,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":0.768695,"selectedQuestionIds":["117179"],"selectedPollIds":["63573"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"303","pollster":"Scripps Howard","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":0.768695,"selectedQuestionIds":["117488"],"selectedPollIds":["63804"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1710","race":"2000_Sen-G_UT","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Scott N. Howell","republican":"Orrin G. Hatch","pollDem":29.5,"pollRep":64.0,"pollMargin":-34.5,"actualDem":31.514582,"actualRep":65.584043,"actualMargin":-34.06946,"actualDRShare":97.098625,"signedError":-0.43054,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.43054,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-34.06946,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":2.06946,"selectedQuestionIds":["117136"],"selectedPollIds":["54510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":-37.0,"signedError":-2.93054,"selectedQuestionIds":["117243"],"selectedPollIds":["54509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1711","race":"2000_Sen-G_VT","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Ed Flanagan","republican":"James M. Jeffords","pollDem":24.0,"pollRep":66.0,"pollMargin":-42.0,"actualDem":25.425303,"actualRep":65.557366,"actualMargin":-40.132062,"actualDRShare":90.982669,"signedError":-1.867938,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.867938,"individualPollMAE":1.867938,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-26","2000-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-40.132062,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":-42.0,"signedError":-1.867938,"selectedQuestionIds":["117245"],"selectedPollIds":["54518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1712","race":"2000_Sen-G_VA","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Charles S. Robb","republican":"George F. Allen","pollDem":44.666667,"pollRep":49.666667,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":47.680261,"actualRep":52.255435,"actualMargin":-4.575174,"actualDRShare":99.935695,"signedError":-0.424826,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.424826,"individualPollMAE":2.141609,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.575174,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":2.575174,"selectedQuestionIds":["31141"],"selectedPollIds":["25901"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-0.424826,"selectedQuestionIds":["117180"],"selectedPollIds":["63574"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-0.424826,"selectedQuestionIds":["27329"],"selectedPollIds":["6231"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"288","pollster":"Richmond Times-Dispatch","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":2.575174,"selectedQuestionIds":["27431"],"selectedPollIds":["6304"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-1.424826,"selectedQuestionIds":["117278"],"selectedPollIds":["63639"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-5.424826,"selectedQuestionIds":["117417"],"selectedPollIds":["63752"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1713","race":"2000_Sen-G_WA","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Maria Cantwell","republican":"Slade Gorton","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":47.75,"pollMargin":-0.75,"actualDem":48.730285,"actualRep":48.639726,"actualMargin":0.090559,"actualDRShare":97.370011,"signedError":-0.840559,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.840559,"individualPollMAE":3.295279,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-31","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.090559,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.090559,"selectedQuestionIds":["117137"],"selectedPollIds":["54525"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.090559,"selectedQuestionIds":["117279"],"selectedPollIds":["63656"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.090559,"selectedQuestionIds":["117376"],"selectedPollIds":["54524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.909441,"selectedQuestionIds":["120639"],"selectedPollIds":["65029"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1714","race":"2000_Sen-G_WV","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"Robert C. Byrd","republican":"David T. Gallaher","pollDem":76.0,"pollRep":18.0,"pollMargin":58.0,"actualDem":77.751928,"actualRep":20.155698,"actualMargin":57.59623,"actualDRShare":97.907625,"signedError":0.40377,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.40377,"individualPollMAE":0.40377,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-11-03","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":57.59623,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":58.0,"signedError":0.40377,"selectedQuestionIds":["117140"],"selectedPollIds":["54531"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1715","race":"2000_Sen-G_WI","series":"senate","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Herb Kohl","republican":"John Gillespie","pollDem":59.0,"pollRep":34.0,"pollMargin":25.0,"actualDem":61.542792,"actualRep":37.035955,"actualMargin":24.506837,"actualDRShare":98.578747,"signedError":0.493163,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.493163,"individualPollMAE":6.0,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-27","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":24.506837,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-3.506837,"selectedQuestionIds":["117183"],"selectedPollIds":["63575"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":33.0,"signedError":8.493163,"selectedQuestionIds":["27282"],"selectedPollIds":["6362"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":-7.506837,"selectedQuestionIds":["117280"],"selectedPollIds":["63657"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":4.493163,"selectedQuestionIds":["120640"],"selectedPollIds":["65030"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1717","race":"1998_Sen-G_AL","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Clayton Suddith","republican":"Richard C. Shelby","pollDem":29.0,"pollRep":62.0,"pollMargin":-33.0,"actualDem":36.691369,"actualRep":63.241831,"actualMargin":-26.550462,"actualDRShare":99.9332,"signedError":-6.449538,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.449538,"individualPollMAE":6.449538,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-26.550462,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":-6.449538,"selectedQuestionIds":["31335"],"selectedPollIds":["26095"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1719","race":"1998_Sen-G_AZ","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Edward Ranger","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":27.0,"pollRep":64.0,"pollMargin":-37.0,"actualDem":27.161693,"actualRep":68.744769,"actualMargin":-41.583077,"actualDRShare":95.906462,"signedError":4.583077,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.583077,"individualPollMAE":4.583077,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-30","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-41.583077,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-37.0,"signedError":4.583077,"selectedQuestionIds":["117113"],"selectedPollIds":["54204"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1720","race":"1998_Sen-G_AR","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Blanche Lincoln","republican":"Fay Boozman","pollDem":56.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":20.0,"actualDem":55.060064,"actualRep":42.217025,"actualMargin":12.843039,"actualDRShare":97.27709,"signedError":7.156961,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.156961,"individualPollMAE":7.156961,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-24","1998-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.843039,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":7.156961,"selectedQuestionIds":["31337"],"selectedPollIds":["26097"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1721","race":"1998_Sen-G_CA","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Barbara Boxer","republican":"Matt Fong","pollDem":49.25,"pollRep":43.5,"pollMargin":5.75,"actualDem":53.057103,"actualRep":43.011536,"actualMargin":10.045567,"actualDRShare":96.068639,"signedError":-4.295567,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.295567,"individualPollMAE":4.295567,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["1998-10-24","1998-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.045567,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.045567,"selectedQuestionIds":["31273"],"selectedPollIds":["26033"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-8.045567,"selectedQuestionIds":["117115"],"selectedPollIds":["54218"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-8.045567,"selectedQuestionIds":["31343"],"selectedPollIds":["26103"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-11-01","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.045567,"selectedQuestionIds":["117371"],"selectedPollIds":["54219"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1722","race":"1998_Sen-G_CO","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Dottie Lamm","republican":"Ben Nighthorse Campbell","pollDem":33.333333,"pollRep":57.666667,"pollMargin":-24.333333,"actualDem":35.016708,"actualRep":62.488557,"actualMargin":-27.471849,"actualDRShare":97.505265,"signedError":3.138516,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.138516,"individualPollMAE":4.157283,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-20","1998-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-27.471849,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"51","pollster":"Ciruli Associates","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-29.0,"signedError":-1.528151,"selectedQuestionIds":["31255"],"selectedPollIds":["26015"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-20","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":9.471849,"selectedQuestionIds":["117116"],"selectedPollIds":["54225"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":1.471849,"selectedQuestionIds":["31348"],"selectedPollIds":["26108"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1723","race":"1998_Sen-G_CT","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Christopher J. Dodd","republican":"Gary A. Franks","pollDem":62.0,"pollRep":29.5,"pollMargin":32.5,"actualDem":65.146087,"actualRep":32.368162,"actualMargin":32.777926,"actualDRShare":97.514249,"signedError":-0.277926,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.277926,"individualPollMAE":4.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":32.777926,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":-4.777926,"selectedQuestionIds":["31351"],"selectedPollIds":["26111"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":37.0,"signedError":4.222074,"selectedQuestionIds":["31447"],"selectedPollIds":["26207"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1724","race":"1998_Sen-G_FL","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Bob Graham","republican":"Charlie Crist","pollDem":60.6,"pollRep":30.2,"pollMargin":30.4,"actualDem":62.469379,"actualRep":37.530621,"actualMargin":24.938759,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.461241,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.461241,"individualPollMAE":6.636745,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["1998-10-22","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":24.938759,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"1998-10-22","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":5.061241,"selectedQuestionIds":["31281"],"selectedPollIds":["26041"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-2.938759,"selectedQuestionIds":["117120"],"selectedPollIds":["54253"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"148","pollster":"Independent Market Research","date":"1998-10-22","pollMargin":36.0,"signedError":11.061241,"selectedQuestionIds":["117194"],"selectedPollIds":["54249"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"1998-10-22","pollMargin":36.0,"signedError":11.061241,"selectedQuestionIds":["31322"],"selectedPollIds":["26082"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":3.061241,"selectedQuestionIds":["117203"],"selectedPollIds":["54252"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1725","race":"1998_Sen-G_GA","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Michael J. Coles","republican":"Paul Coverdell","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":53.333333,"pollMargin":-16.333333,"actualDem":45.14967,"actualRep":52.369704,"actualMargin":-7.220034,"actualDRShare":97.519375,"signedError":-9.1133,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.1133,"individualPollMAE":9.1133,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.220034,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-10.779966,"selectedQuestionIds":["117122"],"selectedPollIds":["54262"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"194","pollster":"Marketing Workshop","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-10.779966,"selectedQuestionIds":["117202"],"selectedPollIds":["54260"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-5.779966,"selectedQuestionIds":["31358"],"selectedPollIds":["26118"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1728","race":"1998_Sen-G_IL","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Carol Moseley-Braun","republican":"Peter G. Fitzgerald","pollDem":41.25,"pollRep":49.75,"pollMargin":-8.5,"actualDem":47.443984,"actualRep":50.347045,"actualMargin":-2.903061,"actualDRShare":97.791029,"signedError":-5.596939,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.596939,"individualPollMAE":8.54847,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.903061,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-16.096939,"selectedQuestionIds":["117124"],"selectedPollIds":["54298"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-5.096939,"selectedQuestionIds":["31366"],"selectedPollIds":["26126"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"287","pollster":"Richard Day Research","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-7.096939,"selectedQuestionIds":["31463"],"selectedPollIds":["26223"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":5.903061,"selectedQuestionIds":["31511"],"selectedPollIds":["26271"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1729","race":"1998_Sen-G_IN","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Evan Bayh","republican":"Paul Helmke","pollDem":61.0,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":28.0,"actualDem":63.718568,"actualRep":34.793282,"actualMargin":28.925285,"actualDRShare":98.51185,"signedError":-0.925285,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.925285,"individualPollMAE":3.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":28.925285,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":31.0,"signedError":2.074715,"selectedQuestionIds":["117142"],"selectedPollIds":["63647"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":-3.925285,"selectedQuestionIds":["31372"],"selectedPollIds":["26132"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1730","race":"1998_Sen-G_IA","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"David Osterberg","republican":"Chuck Grassley","pollDem":24.0,"pollRep":68.0,"pollMargin":-44.0,"actualDem":30.493392,"actualRep":68.411775,"actualMargin":-37.918382,"actualDRShare":98.905167,"signedError":-6.081618,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.081618,"individualPollMAE":6.081618,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-37.918382,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-44.0,"signedError":-6.081618,"selectedQuestionIds":["117204"],"selectedPollIds":["54275"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1731","race":"1998_Sen-G_KS","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Paul Feleciano","republican":"Sam Brownback","pollDem":31.0,"pollRep":66.0,"pollMargin":-35.0,"actualDem":31.58782,"actualRep":65.266158,"actualMargin":-33.678338,"actualDRShare":96.853979,"signedError":-1.321662,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.321662,"individualPollMAE":1.321662,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-28","1998-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-33.678338,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":-35.0,"signedError":-1.321662,"selectedQuestionIds":["117373"],"selectedPollIds":["54300"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1732","race":"1998_Sen-G_KY","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Scotty Baesler","republican":"Jim Bunning","pollDem":44.666667,"pollRep":46.333333,"pollMargin":-1.666667,"actualDem":49.156986,"actualRep":49.747689,"actualMargin":-0.590703,"actualDRShare":98.904676,"signedError":-1.075963,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.075963,"individualPollMAE":3.196901,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-22","1998-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.590703,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"174","pollster":"Louisville Courier-Journal","date":"1998-10-22","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.590703,"selectedQuestionIds":["31312"],"selectedPollIds":["26072"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.590703,"selectedQuestionIds":["31380"],"selectedPollIds":["26140"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-11-01","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-6.409297,"selectedQuestionIds":["117402"],"selectedPollIds":["63759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1734","race":"1998_Sen-G_MD","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Barbara A. Mikulski","republican":"Ross Z. Pierpont","pollDem":67.0,"pollRep":27.0,"pollMargin":40.0,"actualDem":70.503971,"actualRep":29.496029,"actualMargin":41.007943,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-1.007943,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.007943,"individualPollMAE":1.007943,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-20","1998-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":41.007943,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-20","pollMargin":40.0,"signedError":-1.007943,"selectedQuestionIds":["117125"],"selectedPollIds":["54324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1735","race":"1998_Sen-G_MO","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Jay Nixon","republican":"Christopher S. Bond","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":51.666667,"pollMargin":-16.666667,"actualDem":43.771122,"actualRep":52.675988,"actualMargin":-8.904866,"actualDRShare":96.44711,"signedError":-7.761801,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.761801,"individualPollMAE":7.761801,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.904866,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"226","pollster":"Neighbor","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":-17.095134,"selectedQuestionIds":["117236"],"selectedPollIds":["63707"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-4.095134,"selectedQuestionIds":["117403"],"selectedPollIds":["63760"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-29","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-2.095134,"selectedQuestionIds":["31513"],"selectedPollIds":["26273"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1736","race":"1998_Sen-G_NV","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Harry Reid","republican":"John Ensign","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":47.863783,"actualRep":47.771782,"actualMargin":0.092001,"actualDRShare":95.635565,"signedError":1.907999,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.907999,"individualPollMAE":1.907999,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.092001,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.907999,"selectedQuestionIds":["31396"],"selectedPollIds":["26156"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1738","race":"1998_Sen-G_NY","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Charles E. Schumer","republican":"Alfonse M. D'Amato","pollDem":47.833333,"pollRep":44.033333,"pollMargin":3.8,"actualDem":51.124807,"actualRep":41.263302,"actualMargin":9.861506,"actualDRShare":92.388109,"signedError":-6.061506,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.061506,"individualPollMAE":6.061506,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":16,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["1998-10-21","1998-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":14.15087,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-4.289364,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"32","pollster":"Blum & Weprin Associates","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-5.861506,"selectedQuestionIds":["31252"],"selectedPollIds":["26012"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"1998-10-23","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-9.861506,"selectedQuestionIds":["31480"],"selectedPollIds":["26240"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-5.861506,"selectedQuestionIds":["117128"],"selectedPollIds":["54384"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"181","pollster":"Manhattanville College","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-1.861506,"selectedQuestionIds":["31314"],"selectedPollIds":["26074"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-6.861506,"selectedQuestionIds":["31318"],"selectedPollIds":["26078"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-6.861506,"selectedQuestionIds":["31402"],"selectedPollIds":["26162"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"1998-10-29","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-1.861506,"selectedQuestionIds":["31455"],"selectedPollIds":["26215"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-21","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-4.861506,"selectedQuestionIds":["117404"],"selectedPollIds":["63761"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-31","pollMargin":-0.8,"signedError":-10.661506,"selectedQuestionIds":["31515"],"selectedPollIds":["26275"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1739","race":"1998_Sen-G_NC","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"John Edwards","republican":"Lauch Faircloth","pollDem":48.666667,"pollRep":43.333333,"pollMargin":5.333333,"actualDem":51.151285,"actualRep":47.011718,"actualMargin":4.139567,"actualDRShare":98.163003,"signedError":1.193767,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.193767,"individualPollMAE":6.046522,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-27","1998-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.139567,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":10.860433,"selectedQuestionIds":["117144"],"selectedPollIds":["63649"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-5.139567,"selectedQuestionIds":["31389"],"selectedPollIds":["26149"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.139567,"selectedQuestionIds":["117405"],"selectedPollIds":["63762"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1741","race":"1998_Sen-G_OH","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Mary Boyle","republican":"George V. Voinovich","pollDem":40.75,"pollRep":56.5,"pollMargin":-15.75,"actualDem":43.534113,"actualRep":56.459719,"actualMargin":-12.925606,"actualDRShare":99.993831,"signedError":-2.824394,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.824394,"individualPollMAE":8.287197,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-12.925606,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":10.925606,"selectedQuestionIds":["117088"],"selectedPollIds":["54397"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-6.074394,"selectedQuestionIds":["117131"],"selectedPollIds":["54398"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-5.074394,"selectedQuestionIds":["31407"],"selectedPollIds":["26167"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-11.074394,"selectedQuestionIds":["117512"],"selectedPollIds":["54396"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1744","race":"1998_Sen-G_PA","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Bill Lloyd","republican":"Arlen Specter","pollDem":27.666667,"pollRep":60.333333,"pollMargin":-32.666667,"actualDem":34.787467,"actualRep":61.341694,"actualMargin":-26.554227,"actualDRShare":96.129162,"signedError":-6.11244,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.11244,"individualPollMAE":8.481924,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-26.554227,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":-31.0,"signedError":-4.445773,"selectedQuestionIds":["117133"],"selectedPollIds":["54409"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":3.554227,"selectedQuestionIds":["117205"],"selectedPollIds":["54408"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"210","pollster":"Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-44.0,"signedError":-17.445773,"selectedQuestionIds":["31429"],"selectedPollIds":["26189"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1745","race":"1998_Sen-G_SC","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Ernest F. Hollings","republican":"Bob Inglis","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":52.698204,"actualRep":45.669713,"actualMargin":7.028491,"actualDRShare":98.367917,"signedError":-5.028491,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.028491,"individualPollMAE":5.028491,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["1998-10-27","1998-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.028491,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-2.028491,"selectedQuestionIds":["31415"],"selectedPollIds":["26175"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"233","pollster":"North Star Opinion Research","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-8.028491,"selectedQuestionIds":["122724"],"selectedPollIds":["26009"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1746","race":"1998_Sen-G_SD","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Tom Daschle","republican":"Ron Schmidt","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":26.0,"pollMargin":32.0,"actualDem":62.143138,"actualRep":36.408621,"actualMargin":25.734517,"actualDRShare":98.551759,"signedError":6.265483,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.265483,"individualPollMAE":6.265483,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-20","1998-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":25.734517,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"223","pollster":"NRECA Market Research","date":"1998-10-20","pollMargin":32.0,"signedError":6.265483,"selectedQuestionIds":["31439"],"selectedPollIds":["26199"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1749","race":"1998_Sen-G_WA","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Patty Murray","republican":"Linda Smith","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":58.413999,"actualRep":41.586001,"actualMargin":16.827998,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-8.827998,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.827998,"individualPollMAE":8.827998,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.827998,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-8.827998,"selectedQuestionIds":["117146"],"selectedPollIds":["63651"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-8.827998,"selectedQuestionIds":["31422"],"selectedPollIds":["26182"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1750","race":"1998_Sen-G_WI","series":"senate","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Russ Feingold","republican":"Mark W. Neumann","pollDem":43.5,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":50.547524,"actualRep":48.401555,"actualMargin":2.145969,"actualDRShare":98.949079,"signedError":-3.145969,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.145969,"individualPollMAE":3.145969,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["1998-10-21","1998-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.145969,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"91","pollster":"FM3 Research","date":"1998-10-21","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.145969,"selectedQuestionIds":["31272"],"selectedPollIds":["26032"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"1998-10-23","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-5.145969,"selectedQuestionIds":["31328"],"selectedPollIds":["26088"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"179","race":"2018_House-G_AZ-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ-1","democrat":"Tom O'Halleran","republican":"Wendy J. Rogers","pollDem":47.7,"pollRep":45.35,"pollMargin":2.35,"actualDem":53.831613,"actualRep":46.143959,"actualMargin":7.687653,"actualDRShare":99.975572,"signedError":-5.337653,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.337653,"individualPollMAE":5.337653,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-31","2018-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":7.687653,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"245","pollster":"Øptimus Analytics","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":2.35,"signedError":-5.337653,"selectedQuestionIds":["91424"],"selectedPollIds":["56745"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1862","race":"1998_House-G_AR-2","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AR-2","democrat":"Victor F. Snyder","republican":"Phil Wyrick","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":35.0,"pollMargin":19.0,"actualDem":57.97274,"actualRep":42.02726,"actualMargin":15.945479,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":3.054521,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.054521,"individualPollMAE":3.054521,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-24","1998-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.945479,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":3.054521,"selectedQuestionIds":["117967"],"selectedPollIds":["26097"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1888","race":"1998_House-G_CA-24","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-24","democrat":"Brad Sherman","republican":"Randy Hoffman","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":34.0,"pollMargin":13.0,"actualDem":57.310333,"actualRep":38.487651,"actualMargin":18.822682,"actualDRShare":95.797984,"signedError":-5.822682,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.822682,"individualPollMAE":5.822682,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":18.822682,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-5.822682,"selectedQuestionIds":["118466"],"selectedPollIds":["64398"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1900","race":"1998_House-G_CA-36","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-36","democrat":"Janice Hahn","republican":"Steven T. Kuykendall","pollDem":30.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-17.0,"actualDem":46.571935,"actualRep":48.893817,"actualMargin":-2.321883,"actualDRShare":95.465752,"signedError":-14.678117,"absoluteAverageMiss":14.678117,"individualPollMAE":14.678117,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.321883,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-14.678117,"selectedQuestionIds":["118467"],"selectedPollIds":["64398"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1918","race":"1998_House-G_CO-2","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CO-2","democrat":"Mark Udall","republican":"Bob Greenlee","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-17.0,"actualDem":49.879619,"actualRep":47.445303,"actualMargin":2.434316,"actualDRShare":97.324923,"signedError":-19.434316,"absoluteAverageMiss":19.434316,"individualPollMAE":19.434316,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.434316,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-19.434316,"selectedQuestionIds":["118468"],"selectedPollIds":["64399"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1923","race":"1998_House-G_CT-1","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-1","democrat":"John B. Larson","republican":"Kevin James O'Connor","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":21.0,"pollMargin":34.0,"actualDem":58.052227,"actualRep":41.403984,"actualMargin":16.648243,"actualDRShare":99.456212,"signedError":17.351757,"absoluteAverageMiss":17.351757,"individualPollMAE":17.351757,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.648243,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":34.0,"signedError":17.351757,"selectedQuestionIds":["117968"],"selectedPollIds":["64122"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1964","race":"1998_House-G_HI-1","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"HI-1","democrat":"Neil Abercrombie","republican":"Gene Ward","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":32.0,"pollMargin":15.0,"actualDem":61.556356,"actualRep":36.347859,"actualMargin":25.208497,"actualDRShare":97.904215,"signedError":-10.208497,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.208497,"individualPollMAE":10.208497,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-22","1998-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":25.208497,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"375","pollster":"Ward Research","date":"1998-10-22","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-10.208497,"selectedQuestionIds":["118458"],"selectedPollIds":["54266"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"197","race":"2018_House-G_CA-10","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-10","democrat":"Josh Harder","republican":"Jeff Denham","pollDem":47.28,"pollRep":44.92,"pollMargin":2.36,"actualDem":52.251014,"actualRep":47.748986,"actualMargin":4.502028,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.142028,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.142028,"individualPollMAE":2.142028,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":4.502028,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":2.36,"signedError":-2.142028,"selectedQuestionIds":["90669"],"selectedPollIds":["56405"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"1996","race":"1998_House-G_IN-9","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-9","democrat":"Baron P. Hill","republican":"Jean Leising","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":50.756103,"actualRep":47.930406,"actualMargin":2.825698,"actualDRShare":98.686509,"signedError":-12.825698,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.825698,"individualPollMAE":12.825698,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-21","1998-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.825698,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"1998-10-21","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-12.825698,"selectedQuestionIds":["118077"],"selectedPollIds":["64170"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"1997","race":"1998_House-G_IN-10","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-10","democrat":"Julia M. Carson","republican":"Gary Anthony Hofmeister","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":58.342543,"actualRep":39.365853,"actualMargin":18.97669,"actualDRShare":97.708396,"signedError":-27.97669,"absoluteAverageMiss":27.97669,"individualPollMAE":27.97669,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-24","1998-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":18.97669,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"199","pollster":"Massie & Associates","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-27.97669,"selectedQuestionIds":["118013"],"selectedPollIds":["64140"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"2","race":"2014_Sen-G_MI","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Gary C. Peters","republican":"Terri Lynn Land","pollDem":50.34,"pollRep":37.52,"pollMargin":12.82,"actualDem":54.614384,"actualRep":41.329073,"actualMargin":13.285311,"actualDRShare":95.943456,"signedError":-0.465311,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.465311,"individualPollMAE":1.877062,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.285311,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":1.714689,"selectedQuestionIds":["42174"],"selectedPollIds":["34354"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"117","pollster":"Glengariff Group","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":15.1,"signedError":1.814689,"selectedQuestionIds":["42156"],"selectedPollIds":["33989"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-1.285311,"selectedQuestionIds":["42160"],"selectedPollIds":["34317"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-0.285311,"selectedQuestionIds":["125177"],"selectedPollIds":["34328"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-4.285311,"selectedQuestionIds":["41019"],"selectedPollIds":["33830"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"20","race":"2014_Sen-G_OR","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Jeff Merkley","republican":"Monica Wehby","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":20.0,"actualDem":55.728446,"actualRep":36.866473,"actualMargin":18.861974,"actualDRShare":92.594919,"signedError":1.138026,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.138026,"individualPollMAE":1.138026,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-25","2014-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":18.861974,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"87","pollster":"Elway Research","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":0.138026,"selectedQuestionIds":["42186"],"selectedPollIds":["34342"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":2.138026,"selectedQuestionIds":["42113"],"selectedPollIds":["34312"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2006","race":"1998_House-G_KS-4","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-4","democrat":"Jim Lawing","republican":"Todd Tiahrt","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-16.0,"actualDem":38.561585,"actualRep":58.260036,"actualMargin":-19.69845,"actualDRShare":96.821621,"signedError":3.69845,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.69845,"individualPollMAE":3.69845,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-21","1998-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.69845,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-21","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":3.69845,"selectedQuestionIds":["118237"],"selectedPollIds":["64259"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2035","race":"1998_House-G_MA-6","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MA-6","democrat":"John F. Tierney","republican":"Peter G. Torkildsen","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":54.5546,"actualRep":42.377018,"actualMargin":12.177582,"actualDRShare":96.931618,"signedError":8.822418,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.822418,"individualPollMAE":8.822418,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.177582,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":8.822418,"selectedQuestionIds":["118469"],"selectedPollIds":["64400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2067","race":"1998_House-G_MS-4","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MS-4","democrat":"Ronnie Shows","republican":"Delbert Hosemann","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":9.0,"actualDem":53.39106,"actualRep":44.862572,"actualMargin":8.528488,"actualDRShare":98.253632,"signedError":0.471512,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.471512,"individualPollMAE":0.471512,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.528488,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":0.471512,"selectedQuestionIds":["118470"],"selectedPollIds":["64401"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2078","race":"1998_House-G_MT-1","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MT-1","democrat":"Dusty Deschamps","republican":"Richard A. Hill","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":44.359088,"actualRep":53.007833,"actualMargin":-8.648745,"actualDRShare":97.366921,"signedError":-6.351255,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.351255,"individualPollMAE":6.351255,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-20","1998-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.648745,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-20","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-6.351255,"selectedQuestionIds":["117966"],"selectedPollIds":["64121"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2082","race":"1998_House-G_NV-1","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-1","democrat":"Shelley Berkley","republican":"Don Chairez","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":49.238897,"actualRep":45.653766,"actualMargin":3.585131,"actualDRShare":94.892663,"signedError":0.414869,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.414869,"individualPollMAE":0.414869,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.585131,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.414869,"selectedQuestionIds":["117971"],"selectedPollIds":["26156"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2085","race":"1998_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Mary Rauh","republican":"Charles Bass","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":44.773242,"actualRep":53.157258,"actualMargin":-8.384017,"actualDRShare":97.9305,"signedError":-6.615983,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.615983,"individualPollMAE":6.615983,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.384017,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-6.615983,"selectedQuestionIds":["118180"],"selectedPollIds":["64225"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2101","race":"1998_House-G_NM-3","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-3","democrat":"Tom Udall","republican":"Bill Redmond","pollDem":48.5,"pollRep":40.5,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":53.159646,"actualRep":43.2662,"actualMargin":9.893445,"actualDRShare":96.425846,"signedError":-1.893445,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.893445,"individualPollMAE":5.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.893445,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-6.893445,"selectedQuestionIds":["117970"],"selectedPollIds":["64124"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":3.106555,"selectedQuestionIds":["118471"],"selectedPollIds":["64402"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"212","race":"2018_House-G_CA-25","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-25","democrat":"Katie Hill","republican":"Stephen Knight","pollDem":43.98,"pollRep":48.4,"pollMargin":-4.42,"actualDem":54.366139,"actualRep":45.633861,"actualMargin":8.732277,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-13.152277,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.152277,"individualPollMAE":13.152277,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":8.732277,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":-4.42,"signedError":-13.152277,"selectedQuestionIds":["90870"],"selectedPollIds":["56492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2134","race":"1998_House-G_NC-2","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-2","democrat":"Bob R. Etheridge","republican":"Dan Page","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":13.0,"actualDem":57.393518,"actualRep":41.666381,"actualMargin":15.727137,"actualDRShare":99.059899,"signedError":-2.727137,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.727137,"individualPollMAE":2.727137,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-26","1998-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.727137,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-2.727137,"selectedQuestionIds":["118239"],"selectedPollIds":["64261"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2136","race":"1998_House-G_NC-4","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-4","democrat":"David E. Price","republican":"Thomas H. Roberg","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":13.0,"actualDem":57.426082,"actualRep":41.558401,"actualMargin":15.86768,"actualDRShare":98.984483,"signedError":-2.86768,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.86768,"individualPollMAE":2.86768,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.86768,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-2.86768,"selectedQuestionIds":["118238"],"selectedPollIds":["64260"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2151","race":"1998_House-G_OH-6","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-6","democrat":"Ted Strickland","republican":"Nancy P. Hollister","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":56.961836,"actualRep":43.038164,"actualMargin":13.923672,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-12.923672,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.923672,"individualPollMAE":12.923672,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.923672,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-12.923672,"selectedQuestionIds":["118472"],"selectedPollIds":["64403"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2171","race":"1998_House-G_OR-1","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"OR-1","democrat":"David Wu","republican":"Molly Bordonaro","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":50.102298,"actualRep":47.110181,"actualMargin":2.992117,"actualDRShare":97.21248,"signedError":-6.992117,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.992117,"individualPollMAE":6.992117,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-11-01","1998-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.992117,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-11-01","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-6.992117,"selectedQuestionIds":["118240"],"selectedPollIds":["64262"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2185","race":"1998_House-G_PA-10","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-10","democrat":"Patrick R. Casey","republican":"Donald L. Sherwood","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":48.400518,"actualRep":48.698109,"actualMargin":-0.297592,"actualDRShare":97.098627,"signedError":1.297592,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.297592,"individualPollMAE":1.297592,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-11-01","1998-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.297592,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"1998-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.297592,"selectedQuestionIds":["118241"],"selectedPollIds":["64263"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2188","race":"1998_House-G_PA-13","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-13","democrat":"Joe Hoeffel","republican":"Jon David Fox","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":51.55022,"actualRep":46.56892,"actualMargin":4.9813,"actualDRShare":98.119139,"signedError":-10.9813,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.9813,"individualPollMAE":10.9813,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.9813,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-10.9813,"selectedQuestionIds":["118480"],"selectedPollIds":["64405"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"22","race":"2014_Sen-G_SD","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Richard P. Weiland","republican":"M. Michael Rounds","pollDem":31.2,"pollRep":43.6,"pollMargin":-12.4,"actualDem":29.510544,"actualRep":50.370421,"actualMargin":-20.859877,"actualDRShare":79.880964,"signedError":8.459877,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.459877,"individualPollMAE":8.459877,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.859877,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":6.859877,"selectedQuestionIds":["40949"],"selectedPollIds":["33763"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":11.859877,"selectedQuestionIds":["42148"],"selectedPollIds":["34352"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":6.859877,"selectedQuestionIds":["42181"],"selectedPollIds":["34244"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":6.859877,"selectedQuestionIds":["42150"],"selectedPollIds":["34427"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":9.859877,"selectedQuestionIds":["42122"],"selectedPollIds":["34391"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2246","race":"1998_House-G_UT-2","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-2","democrat":"Lily Eskelsen","republican":"Merrill Cook","pollDem":40.5,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-3.5,"actualDem":43.45731,"actualRep":52.756965,"actualMargin":-9.299655,"actualDRShare":96.214275,"signedError":5.799655,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.799655,"individualPollMAE":5.799655,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["1998-10-20","1998-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.299655,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"368","pollster":"Valley Research","date":"1998-10-20","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":10.299655,"selectedQuestionIds":["118453"],"selectedPollIds":["64387"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"387","pollster":"Wirthlin Worldwide","date":"1998-10-24","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":1.299655,"selectedQuestionIds":["118463"],"selectedPollIds":["64395"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"2260","race":"1998_House-G_WA-1","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"WA-1","democrat":"Jay Robert Inslee","republican":"Richard Alan White","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":49.774587,"actualRep":44.115634,"actualMargin":5.658953,"actualDRShare":93.890221,"signedError":-5.658953,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.658953,"individualPollMAE":5.658953,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.658953,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.658953,"selectedQuestionIds":["118481"],"selectedPollIds":["64406"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2272","race":"1998_House-G_WI-1","series":"house-district","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"WI-1","democrat":"Lydia Carol Spottswood","republican":"Paul Ryan","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-14.0,"actualDem":42.730039,"actualRep":57.108336,"actualMargin":-14.378297,"actualDRShare":99.838375,"signedError":0.378297,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.378297,"individualPollMAE":0.378297,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["1998-10-25","1998-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.378297,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"1998-10-25","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":0.378297,"selectedQuestionIds":["118489"],"selectedPollIds":["64408"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2299","race":"2000_House-G_AR-4","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AR-4","democrat":"Michael Avery Ross","republican":"Jay Woodson Dickey","pollDem":43.5,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-1.5,"actualDem":50.972379,"actualRep":49.027621,"actualMargin":1.944759,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-3.444759,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.444759,"individualPollMAE":3.444759,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.944759,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-4.944759,"selectedQuestionIds":["117975"],"selectedPollIds":["64127"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"242","pollster":"Opinion Research Associates","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.944759,"selectedQuestionIds":["118071"],"selectedPollIds":["6316"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"23","race":"2014_Sen-G_CO","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Mark Udall","republican":"Cory Gardner","pollDem":43.988889,"pollRep":45.522222,"pollMargin":-1.533333,"actualDem":46.260469,"actualRep":48.204951,"actualMargin":-1.944482,"actualDRShare":94.465419,"signedError":0.411148,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.411148,"individualPollMAE":1.806169,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.944482,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"134","pollster":"Harstad Strategic Research","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.944482,"selectedQuestionIds":["42153"],"selectedPollIds":["34430"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"161","pollster":"Keating Research","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.944482,"selectedQuestionIds":["40946"],"selectedPollIds":["33760"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.055518,"selectedQuestionIds":["125154"],"selectedPollIds":["34385"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.055518,"selectedQuestionIds":["125156"],"selectedPollIds":["34370"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-4.055518,"selectedQuestionIds":["42196"],"selectedPollIds":["34355"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"321","pollster":"Strategies 360","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.944482,"selectedQuestionIds":["42146"],"selectedPollIds":["34353"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.055518,"selectedQuestionIds":["42106"],"selectedPollIds":["34351"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.055518,"selectedQuestionIds":["42110"],"selectedPollIds":["34381"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-0.8,"signedError":1.144482,"selectedQuestionIds":["42165"],"selectedPollIds":["34338"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"232","race":"2018_House-G_CA-45","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-45","democrat":"Katie Porter","republican":"Mimi Walters","pollDem":47.76,"pollRep":46.48,"pollMargin":1.28,"actualDem":52.051007,"actualRep":47.948993,"actualMargin":4.102015,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.822015,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.822015,"individualPollMAE":2.822015,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-29","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":4.102015,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":1.28,"signedError":-2.822015,"selectedQuestionIds":["90953"],"selectedPollIds":["56536"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2348","race":"2000_House-G_CA-49","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-49","democrat":"Susan A. Davis","republican":"Brian P. Bilbray","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":49.630398,"actualRep":46.179466,"actualMargin":3.450932,"actualDRShare":95.809864,"signedError":-1.450932,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.450932,"individualPollMAE":1.450932,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-11-01","2000-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.450932,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.450932,"selectedQuestionIds":["118253"],"selectedPollIds":["64273"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"235","race":"2018_House-G_CA-48","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-48","democrat":"Harley Rouda","republican":"Dana Rohrabacher","pollDem":44.025,"pollRep":47.71,"pollMargin":-3.685,"actualDem":53.551992,"actualRep":46.448008,"actualMargin":7.103985,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-10.788985,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.788985,"individualPollMAE":10.788985,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-30","2018-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":7.103985,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":1.73,"signedError":-5.373985,"selectedQuestionIds":["91265"],"selectedPollIds":["56667"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"452","pollster":"Thomas Partners Strategies","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-9.1,"signedError":-16.203985,"selectedQuestionIds":["91262"],"selectedPollIds":["56665"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2359","race":"2000_House-G_CT-2","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-2","democrat":"Sam Gejdenson","republican":"Robert R. Simmons","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":49.366977,"actualRep":50.633023,"actualMargin":-1.266047,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":2.266047,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.266047,"individualPollMAE":2.266047,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.567065,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-1.833112,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.266047,"selectedQuestionIds":["117974"],"selectedPollIds":["64126"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"236","race":"2018_House-G_CA-49","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-49","democrat":"Mike Levin","republican":"Diane L. Harkey","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":7.0,"actualDem":56.419008,"actualRep":43.580992,"actualMargin":12.838016,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.838016,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.838016,"individualPollMAE":5.838016,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-31","2018-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":12.838016,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-5.838016,"selectedQuestionIds":["91264"],"selectedPollIds":["56666"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"237","race":"2018_House-G_CA-50","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-50","democrat":"Ammar Campa-Najjar","republican":"Duncan Hunter","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":48.284516,"actualRep":51.715484,"actualMargin":-3.430969,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.430969,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.430969,"individualPollMAE":0.430969,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-3.430969,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.430969,"selectedQuestionIds":["90983"],"selectedPollIds":["56547"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2372","race":"2000_House-G_FL-8","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-8","democrat":"Linda Welch Chapin","republican":"Richard Keller","pollDem":40.666667,"pollRep":50.666667,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":49.188339,"actualRep":50.793413,"actualMargin":-1.605074,"actualDRShare":99.981751,"signedError":-8.394926,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.394926,"individualPollMAE":8.394926,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.605074,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-10.394926,"selectedQuestionIds":["118254"],"selectedPollIds":["64274"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"371","pollster":"Voter/Consumer Research","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-4.394926,"selectedQuestionIds":["118456"],"selectedPollIds":["64389"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-10.394926,"selectedQuestionIds":["118490"],"selectedPollIds":["64409"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2386","race":"2000_House-G_FL-22","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-22","democrat":"Elaine Bloom","republican":"E. Clay Shaw","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":7.0,"actualDem":49.857895,"actualRep":50.141631,"actualMargin":-0.283736,"actualDRShare":99.999526,"signedError":7.283736,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.283736,"individualPollMAE":7.283736,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-31","2000-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.283736,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":7.283736,"selectedQuestionIds":["118252"],"selectedPollIds":["64272"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"243","race":"2018_House-G_CO-3","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CO-3","democrat":"Diane Mitsch Bush","republican":"Scott Tipton","pollDem":39.5,"pollRep":49.5,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":43.553113,"actualRep":51.518288,"actualMargin":-7.965176,"actualDRShare":95.071401,"signedError":-2.034824,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.034824,"individualPollMAE":5.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-7.965176,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-7.034824,"selectedQuestionIds":["90932"],"selectedPollIds":["56526"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"503","pollster":"JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.965176,"selectedQuestionIds":["91313"],"selectedPollIds":["56694"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2444","race":"2000_House-G_KY-3","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-3","democrat":"Eleanor Jordan","republican":"Anne Meagher Northup","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":44.226798,"actualRep":52.869766,"actualMargin":-8.642967,"actualDRShare":97.096564,"signedError":-1.357033,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.357033,"individualPollMAE":1.357033,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.642967,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"174","pollster":"Louisville Courier-Journal","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-1.357033,"selectedQuestionIds":["117953"],"selectedPollIds":["64110"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2445","race":"2000_House-G_KY-4","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-4","democrat":"Kenneth R. Lucas","republican":"Don Bell","pollDem":60.0,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":23.0,"actualDem":54.263827,"actualRep":43.516854,"actualMargin":10.746973,"actualDRShare":97.780681,"signedError":12.253027,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.253027,"individualPollMAE":12.253027,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-25","2000-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.746973,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":12.253027,"selectedQuestionIds":["118249"],"selectedPollIds":["64269"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2482","race":"2000_House-G_MI-8","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MI-8","democrat":"Dianne Byrum","republican":"Mike Rogers","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":48.740476,"actualRep":48.794251,"actualMargin":-0.053776,"actualDRShare":97.534727,"signedError":1.053776,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.053776,"individualPollMAE":1.053776,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.053776,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.053776,"selectedQuestionIds":["117848"],"selectedPollIds":["25718"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2494","race":"2000_House-G_MN-4","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-4","democrat":"Betty McCollum","republican":"Linda Runbeck","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":48.041365,"actualRep":30.891655,"actualMargin":17.14971,"actualDRShare":78.93302,"signedError":-5.14971,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.14971,"individualPollMAE":5.14971,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-30","2000-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":17.14971,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-5.14971,"selectedQuestionIds":["144568"],"selectedPollIds":["75798"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2517","race":"2000_House-G_NV-1","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-1","democrat":"Shelley Berkley","republican":"Jon C. Porter","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":51.680154,"actualRep":44.17999,"actualMargin":7.500164,"actualDRShare":95.860144,"signedError":0.499836,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.499836,"individualPollMAE":0.499836,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-25","2000-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.500164,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.499836,"selectedQuestionIds":["118250"],"selectedPollIds":["64270"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2581","race":"2000_House-G_OH-1","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-1","democrat":"John Cranley","republican":"Steve Chabot","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":44.607763,"actualRep":52.973306,"actualMargin":-8.365543,"actualDRShare":97.58107,"signedError":-9.634457,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.634457,"individualPollMAE":9.634457,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-30","2000-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.365543,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-9.634457,"selectedQuestionIds":["118251"],"selectedPollIds":["64271"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"26","race":"2014_Sen-G_IA","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Bruce L. Braley","republican":"Joni K. Ernst","pollDem":45.208333,"pollRep":46.941667,"pollMargin":-1.733333,"actualDem":43.761176,"actualRep":52.100115,"actualMargin":-8.33894,"actualDRShare":95.861291,"signedError":6.605606,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.605606,"individualPollMAE":6.605606,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.33894,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":7.33894,"selectedQuestionIds":["42096"],"selectedPollIds":["34314"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":6.33894,"selectedQuestionIds":["42192"],"selectedPollIds":["34447"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":8.33894,"selectedQuestionIds":["42134"],"selectedPollIds":["34419"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":2.33894,"selectedQuestionIds":["42239"],"selectedPollIds":["34488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":8.33894,"selectedQuestionIds":["42147"],"selectedPollIds":["34388"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":1.1,"signedError":9.43894,"selectedQuestionIds":["42162"],"selectedPollIds":["34091"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":5.33894,"selectedQuestionIds":["125140"],"selectedPollIds":["34306"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":8.33894,"selectedQuestionIds":["42159"],"selectedPollIds":["34336"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":7.33894,"selectedQuestionIds":["42245"],"selectedPollIds":["34365"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.33894,"selectedQuestionIds":["42173"],"selectedPollIds":["34392"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":9.33894,"selectedQuestionIds":["42095"],"selectedPollIds":["34337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"245","pollster":"Øptimus Analytics","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-2.9,"signedError":5.43894,"selectedQuestionIds":["100398"],"selectedPollIds":["58868"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2601","race":"2000_House-G_OK-2","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OK-2","democrat":"Brad R. Carson","republican":"Andy Ewing","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":15.0,"actualDem":54.89581,"actualRep":41.794772,"actualMargin":13.101038,"actualDRShare":96.690582,"signedError":1.898962,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.898962,"individualPollMAE":1.898962,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.101038,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"59","pollster":"Consumer Logic","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":1.898962,"selectedQuestionIds":["117804"],"selectedPollIds":["64005"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2614","race":"2000_House-G_PA-4","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-4","democrat":"Terry E. Van Horne","republican":"Melissa A. Hart","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":40.990726,"actualRep":59.009274,"actualMargin":-18.018548,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":10.018548,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.018548,"individualPollMAE":10.018548,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-26","2000-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-18.018548,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"77","pollster":"Decision Forecasting","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":10.018548,"selectedQuestionIds":["117833"],"selectedPollIds":["64028"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2674","race":"2000_House-G_TX-25","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"TX-25","democrat":"Kenneth E. Bentsen","republican":"Phil Sudan","pollDem":59.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":20.0,"actualDem":60.112621,"actualRep":38.527776,"actualMargin":21.584845,"actualDRShare":98.640396,"signedError":-1.584845,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.584845,"individualPollMAE":1.584845,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-11-01","2000-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":21.584845,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-1.584845,"selectedQuestionIds":["118255"],"selectedPollIds":["64275"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"268","race":"2018_House-G_FL-15","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-15","democrat":"Kristen Carlson","republican":"Ross Spano","pollDem":44.3,"pollRep":46.2,"pollMargin":-1.9,"actualDem":46.976171,"actualRep":53.016825,"actualMargin":-6.040654,"actualDRShare":99.992996,"signedError":4.140654,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.140654,"individualPollMAE":4.140654,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-05","2018-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-6.040654,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"314","pollster":"St. Pete Polls","date":"2018-11-05","pollMargin":-1.9,"signedError":4.140654,"selectedQuestionIds":["91576"],"selectedPollIds":["56821"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2705","race":"2000_House-G_WV-2","series":"house-district","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WV-2","democrat":"Jim Humphreys","republican":"Shelley Moore Capito","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":32.0,"pollMargin":6.0,"actualDem":45.918909,"actualRep":48.489401,"actualMargin":-2.570492,"actualDRShare":94.40831,"signedError":8.570492,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.570492,"individualPollMAE":8.570492,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-25","2000-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.570492,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"378","pollster":"West Virginia Research Center","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":8.570492,"selectedQuestionIds":["118464"],"selectedPollIds":["64396"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"271","race":"2018_House-G_FL-18","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-18","democrat":"Lauren Baer","republican":"Brian Mast","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":45.698813,"actualRep":54.301187,"actualMargin":-8.602374,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.397626,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.397626,"individualPollMAE":0.397626,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-8.602374,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-0.397626,"selectedQuestionIds":["90934"],"selectedPollIds":["56528"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2725","race":"2002_House-G_AZ-1","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ-1","democrat":"George Cordova","republican":"Richard Renzi","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":45.641633,"actualRep":49.212019,"actualMargin":-3.570386,"actualDRShare":94.853653,"signedError":-8.429614,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.429614,"individualPollMAE":8.429614,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.570386,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-8.429614,"selectedQuestionIds":["118078"],"selectedPollIds":["64171"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"2736","race":"2002_House-G_AR-4","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"AR-4","democrat":"Michael Avery Ross","republican":"Jay Woodson Dickey","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":15.0,"actualDem":60.562325,"actualRep":39.437675,"actualMargin":21.12465,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-6.12465,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.12465,"individualPollMAE":6.12465,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-23","2002-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":21.12465,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"242","pollster":"Opinion Research Associates","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-6.12465,"selectedQuestionIds":["118072"],"selectedPollIds":["64168"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2796","race":"2002_House-G_CO-7","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"CO-7","democrat":"Michael F. Feeley","republican":"Bob Beauprez","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":47.239977,"actualRep":47.309968,"actualMargin":-0.069991,"actualDRShare":94.549945,"signedError":-1.930009,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.930009,"individualPollMAE":1.930009,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-30","2002-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.069991,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-1.930009,"selectedQuestionIds":["118425"],"selectedPollIds":["64373"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"2798","race":"2002_House-G_CT-2","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-2","democrat":"Joe Courtney","republican":"Robert R. Simmons","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":45.90987,"actualRep":54.09013,"actualMargin":-8.180261,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":3.180261,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.180261,"individualPollMAE":3.180261,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-11-02","2002-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.180261,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"347","pollster":"University of Connecticut","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":3.180261,"selectedQuestionIds":["139511"],"selectedPollIds":["74286"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"28","race":"2014_Sen-G_TN","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"William Gordon Ball","republican":"Lamar Alexander","pollDem":26.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":31.865159,"actualRep":61.866578,"actualMargin":-30.001419,"actualDRShare":93.731738,"signedError":12.001419,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.001419,"individualPollMAE":12.001419,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-24","2014-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-30.001419,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"208","pollster":"Middle Tennessee State University","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":12.001419,"selectedQuestionIds":["42268"],"selectedPollIds":["34510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"280","race":"2018_House-G_FL-27","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-27","democrat":"Donna E. Shalala","republican":"María Elvira Salazar","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":51.761776,"actualRep":45.76184,"actualMargin":5.999937,"actualDRShare":97.523616,"signedError":4.000063,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.000063,"individualPollMAE":4.000063,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.999937,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"14","pollster":"Impact Research","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":4.000063,"selectedQuestionIds":["90992"],"selectedPollIds":["56555"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"2801","race":"2002_House-G_CT-5","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-5","democrat":"James H. Maloney","republican":"Nancy L. Johnson","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-17.0,"actualDem":43.26296,"actualRep":54.248666,"actualMargin":-10.985706,"actualDRShare":97.511625,"signedError":-6.014294,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.014294,"individualPollMAE":6.014294,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.985706,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"347","pollster":"University of Connecticut","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-6.014294,"selectedQuestionIds":["118449"],"selectedPollIds":["64383"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2839","race":"2002_House-G_GA-12","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-12","democrat":"Charles Walker","republican":"Max Burns","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":44.808844,"actualRep":55.191156,"actualMargin":-10.382311,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.617689,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.617689,"individualPollMAE":4.617689,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.382311,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-4.617689,"selectedQuestionIds":["118423"],"selectedPollIds":["64371"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"286","race":"2018_House-G_GA-6","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-6","democrat":"Lucy McBath","republican":"Karen Handel","pollDem":48.71,"pollRep":44.66,"pollMargin":4.05,"actualDem":50.511936,"actualRep":49.482387,"actualMargin":1.029549,"actualDRShare":99.994322,"signedError":3.020451,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.020451,"individualPollMAE":3.020451,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-11-01","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":1.029549,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":4.970451,"selectedQuestionIds":["91510"],"selectedPollIds":["56788"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":2.1,"signedError":1.070451,"selectedQuestionIds":["91247"],"selectedPollIds":["56657"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2870","race":"2002_House-G_IN-7","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-7","democrat":"Julia M. Carson","republican":"Ambrose A. McVey","pollDem":44.5,"pollRep":39.5,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":53.125343,"actualRep":44.143582,"actualMargin":8.981761,"actualDRShare":97.268925,"signedError":-3.981761,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.981761,"individualPollMAE":4.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-24","2002-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.981761,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"149","pollster":"Indiana University Public Opinion Laboratory","date":"2002-10-24","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":0.018239,"selectedQuestionIds":["117947"],"selectedPollIds":["64104"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-7.981761,"selectedQuestionIds":["117964"],"selectedPollIds":["64120"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2875","race":"2002_House-G_IA-3","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-3","democrat":"Leonard L. Boswell","republican":"Stanley J. Thompson","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":53.414357,"actualRep":45.04248,"actualMargin":8.371878,"actualDRShare":98.456837,"signedError":-4.371878,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.371878,"individualPollMAE":4.371878,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-23","2002-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.371878,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"24","pollster":"Basswood Research","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-4.371878,"selectedQuestionIds":["118105"],"selectedPollIds":["64195"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"2880","race":"2002_House-G_KS-3","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-3","democrat":"Dennis Moore","republican":"Adam Taff","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":3.0,"actualDem":50.182552,"actualRep":46.894785,"actualMargin":3.287767,"actualDRShare":97.077338,"signedError":-0.287767,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.287767,"individualPollMAE":0.287767,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-24","2002-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.287767,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"2002-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.287767,"selectedQuestionIds":["117962"],"selectedPollIds":["64118"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2881","race":"2002_House-G_KS-4","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-4","democrat":"Carlos J. Nolla","republican":"Todd Tiahrt","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-17.0,"actualDem":36.999838,"actualRep":60.58294,"actualMargin":-23.583102,"actualDRShare":97.582778,"signedError":6.583102,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.583102,"individualPollMAE":6.583102,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-29","2002-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-23.583102,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":6.583102,"selectedQuestionIds":["118264"],"selectedPollIds":["64282"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2884","race":"2002_House-G_KY-3","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-3","democrat":"Jack Conway","republican":"Anne Meagher Northup","pollDem":44.5,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-5.5,"actualDem":48.38873,"actualRep":51.61127,"actualMargin":-3.222539,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.277461,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.277461,"individualPollMAE":4.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.222539,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"174","pollster":"Louisville Courier-Journal","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-6.777461,"selectedQuestionIds":["117954"],"selectedPollIds":["64111"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.222539,"selectedQuestionIds":["118265"],"selectedPollIds":["64283"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2885","race":"2002_House-G_KY-4","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-4","democrat":"Kenneth R. Lucas","republican":"Geoff Davis","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":51.111305,"actualRep":47.544764,"actualMargin":3.566541,"actualDRShare":98.656069,"signedError":1.433459,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.433459,"individualPollMAE":1.433459,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-30","2002-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.566541,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":1.433459,"selectedQuestionIds":["118266"],"selectedPollIds":["64283"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2893","race":"2002_House-R_LA-5","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-12-07","raceKind":"R","location":"LA-5","democrat":"Rodney M. Alexander","republican":"Lee Fletcher","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":50.282381,"actualRep":49.717619,"actualMargin":0.564762,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-8.564762,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.564762,"individualPollMAE":8.564762,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-12-02","2002-12-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.564762,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-12-02","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-8.564762,"selectedQuestionIds":["139536"],"selectedPollIds":["74304"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2897","race":"2002_House-G_ME-2","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-2","democrat":"Michael H. Michaud","republican":"Kevin L. Raye","pollDem":42.5,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":5.5,"actualDem":52.006746,"actualRep":47.993254,"actualMargin":4.013493,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.486507,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.486507,"individualPollMAE":4.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-25","2002-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.013493,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"249","pollster":"Pan Atlantic Research","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":5.986507,"selectedQuestionIds":["118073"],"selectedPollIds":["54765"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.013493,"selectedQuestionIds":["118181"],"selectedPollIds":["54764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2899","race":"2002_House-G_MD-2","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"MD-2","democrat":"C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger","republican":"Helen Delich Bentley","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":9.0,"actualDem":54.305704,"actualRep":45.694296,"actualMargin":8.611408,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.388592,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.388592,"individualPollMAE":0.388592,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-27","2002-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.611408,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"256","pollster":"Potomac Incorporated","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":0.388592,"selectedQuestionIds":["118090"],"selectedPollIds":["54753"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"29","race":"2014_Sen-G_OK","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Matt Silverstein","republican":"James M. Inhofe","pollDem":27.8,"pollRep":62.7,"pollMargin":-34.9,"actualDem":28.548505,"actualRep":68.008232,"actualMargin":-39.459727,"actualDRShare":96.556736,"signedError":4.559727,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.559727,"individualPollMAE":4.559727,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-27","2014-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-39.459727,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-34.9,"signedError":4.559727,"selectedQuestionIds":["127536"],"selectedPollIds":["34397"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2905","race":"2002_House-G_MD-8","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"MD-8","democrat":"Chris Van Hollen","republican":"Constance A. Morella","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":51.743786,"actualRep":47.52264,"actualMargin":4.221146,"actualDRShare":99.266426,"signedError":-7.221146,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.221146,"individualPollMAE":7.221146,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-27","2002-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.221146,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"256","pollster":"Potomac Incorporated","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-7.221146,"selectedQuestionIds":["118089"],"selectedPollIds":["54753"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2952","race":"2002_House-G_MT-1","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"MT-1","democrat":"Steve Kelly","republican":"Denny Rehberg","pollDem":30.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-28.0,"actualDem":32.667111,"actualRep":64.620112,"actualMargin":-31.953,"actualDRShare":97.287223,"signedError":3.953,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.953,"individualPollMAE":3.953,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-23","2002-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-31.953,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":3.953,"selectedQuestionIds":["117978"],"selectedPollIds":["25525"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2954","race":"2002_House-G_NE-2","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-2","democrat":"Jim Simon","republican":"Lee Terry","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-21.0,"actualDem":32.984776,"actualRep":63.315589,"actualMargin":-30.330812,"actualDRShare":96.300365,"signedError":9.330812,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.330812,"individualPollMAE":9.330812,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-25","2002-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-30.330812,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"178","pollster":"MSR Group","date":"2002-10-25","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":9.330812,"selectedQuestionIds":["118022"],"selectedPollIds":["25551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2956","race":"2002_House-G_NV-1","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-1","democrat":"Shelley Berkley","republican":"Lynette Maria Boggs-McDonald","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":13.0,"actualDem":52.924718,"actualRep":42.091576,"actualMargin":10.833141,"actualDRShare":95.016294,"signedError":2.166859,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.166859,"individualPollMAE":2.166859,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.996208,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.163066,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":2.166859,"selectedQuestionIds":["117976"],"selectedPollIds":["54823"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2958","race":"2002_House-G_NV-3","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-3","democrat":"Dario Herrera","republican":"Jon C. Porter","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":37.240913,"actualRep":56.078975,"actualMargin":-18.838062,"actualDRShare":93.319888,"signedError":8.838062,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.838062,"individualPollMAE":8.838062,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-18.838062,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":8.838062,"selectedQuestionIds":["139541"],"selectedPollIds":["54823"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2960","race":"2002_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Katrina Swett","republican":"Charles Bass","pollDem":33.6,"pollRep":55.2,"pollMargin":-21.6,"actualDem":40.856423,"actualRep":56.807673,"actualMargin":-15.95125,"actualDRShare":97.664096,"signedError":-5.64875,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.64875,"individualPollMAE":6.02925,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2002-10-22","2002-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.95125,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2002-11-02","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-6.04875,"selectedQuestionIds":["117529"],"selectedPollIds":["25389"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"26","pollster":"Becker Institute","date":"2002-10-22","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-6.04875,"selectedQuestionIds":["139546"],"selectedPollIds":["54807"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"107","pollster":"Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-3.04875,"selectedQuestionIds":["117866"],"selectedPollIds":["64048"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2002-10-29","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":0.95125,"selectedQuestionIds":["118424"],"selectedPollIds":["64372"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2002-11-01","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":-14.04875,"selectedQuestionIds":["139547"],"selectedPollIds":["25650"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"297","race":"2018_House-G_IA-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-1","democrat":"Abby Finkenauer","republican":"Rod Blum","pollDem":49.345,"pollRep":40.14,"pollMargin":9.205,"actualDem":50.963521,"actualRep":45.907319,"actualMargin":5.056202,"actualDRShare":96.870839,"signedError":4.148798,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.148798,"individualPollMAE":4.148798,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-30","2018-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.056202,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":11.9,"signedError":6.843798,"selectedQuestionIds":["91278"],"selectedPollIds":["56672"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":6.51,"signedError":1.453798,"selectedQuestionIds":["91075"],"selectedPollIds":["56582"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2974","race":"2002_House-G_NM-1","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-1","democrat":"Richard M. Romero","republican":"Heather A. Wilson","pollDem":43.333333,"pollRep":48.333333,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":44.658128,"actualRep":55.341872,"actualMargin":-10.683743,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.683743,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.683743,"individualPollMAE":5.683743,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2002-10-26","2002-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.683743,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"74","pollster":"Data West Polling","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":9.683743,"selectedQuestionIds":["117827"],"selectedPollIds":["64023"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":2.683743,"selectedQuestionIds":["117979"],"selectedPollIds":["25532"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":4.683743,"selectedQuestionIds":["118106"],"selectedPollIds":["25572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"2975","race":"2002_House-G_NM-2","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-2","democrat":"John Arthur Smith","republican":"Stevan Pearce","pollDem":44.333333,"pollRep":46.333333,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":43.717035,"actualRep":56.225067,"actualMargin":-12.508032,"actualDRShare":99.942102,"signedError":10.508032,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.508032,"individualPollMAE":10.508032,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2002-10-26","2002-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-12.508032,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"74","pollster":"Data West Polling","date":"2002-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":16.508032,"selectedQuestionIds":["117831"],"selectedPollIds":["64023"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":7.508032,"selectedQuestionIds":["117980"],"selectedPollIds":["25532"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2002-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":7.508032,"selectedQuestionIds":["118107"],"selectedPollIds":["25572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"298","race":"2018_House-G_IA-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-2","democrat":"Dave Loebsack","republican":"Christopher Peters","pollDem":52.6,"pollRep":39.7,"pollMargin":12.9,"actualDem":54.790309,"actualRep":42.595546,"actualMargin":12.194763,"actualDRShare":97.385855,"signedError":0.705237,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.705237,"individualPollMAE":0.705237,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-31","2018-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":12.194763,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":12.9,"signedError":0.705237,"selectedQuestionIds":["91279"],"selectedPollIds":["56672"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"299","race":"2018_House-G_IA-3","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-3","democrat":"Cindy Axne","republican":"David Young","pollDem":44.545,"pollRep":43.015,"pollMargin":1.53,"actualDem":49.304263,"actualRep":47.140279,"actualMargin":2.163984,"actualDRShare":96.444542,"signedError":-0.633984,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.633984,"individualPollMAE":0.633984,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-26","2018-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":2.163984,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":0.9,"signedError":-1.263984,"selectedQuestionIds":["91280"],"selectedPollIds":["56672"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":2.16,"signedError":-0.003984,"selectedQuestionIds":["90864"],"selectedPollIds":["56489"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3","race":"2014_Sen-G_NM","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Tom Udall","republican":"Allen E. Weh","pollDem":50.5,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":6.5,"actualDem":55.55881,"actualRep":44.44119,"actualMargin":11.11762,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.61762,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.61762,"individualPollMAE":4.61762,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.11762,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-4.11762,"selectedQuestionIds":["42108"],"selectedPollIds":["34098"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-5.11762,"selectedQuestionIds":["42169"],"selectedPollIds":["34436"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"300","race":"2018_House-G_IA-4","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-4","democrat":"J.D. Scholten","republican":"Steve King","pollDem":40.5375,"pollRep":48.805,"pollMargin":-8.2675,"actualDem":47.005756,"actualRep":50.335354,"actualMargin":-3.329598,"actualDRShare":97.34111,"signedError":-4.937902,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.937902,"individualPollMAE":6.102701,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-3.331789,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.002191,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.329598,"selectedQuestionIds":["90943"],"selectedPollIds":["56535"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":-9.3,"signedError":-5.970402,"selectedQuestionIds":["91281"],"selectedPollIds":["56672"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":-4.77,"signedError":-1.440402,"selectedQuestionIds":["91347"],"selectedPollIds":["56709"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"383","pollster":"WPA Intelligence","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-14.670402,"selectedQuestionIds":["90988"],"selectedPollIds":["56552"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"3038","race":"2002_House-G_OK-1","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"OK-1","democrat":"Doug Dodd","republican":"John A. Sullivan","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":42.171152,"actualRep":55.623735,"actualMargin":-13.452583,"actualDRShare":97.794887,"signedError":-1.547417,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.547417,"individualPollMAE":1.547417,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-27","2002-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-13.452583,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-1.547417,"selectedQuestionIds":["118263"],"selectedPollIds":["64281"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3060","race":"2002_House-G_PA-13","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-13","democrat":"Joe Hoeffel","republican":"Melissa Brown","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":35.0,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":50.949416,"actualRep":47.338661,"actualMargin":3.610756,"actualDRShare":98.288077,"signedError":4.389244,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.389244,"individualPollMAE":4.389244,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-27","2002-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.610756,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":4.389244,"selectedQuestionIds":["118079"],"selectedPollIds":["64172"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"3067","race":"2002_House-G_RI-1","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"RI-1","democrat":"Patrick Joseph Kennedy","republican":"David W. Rogers","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":59.878215,"actualRep":37.308415,"actualMargin":22.5698,"actualDRShare":97.18663,"signedError":-1.5698,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.5698,"individualPollMAE":1.5698,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-28","2002-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":22.5698,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"2002-10-28","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-1.5698,"selectedQuestionIds":["117856"],"selectedPollIds":["54920"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"308","race":"2018_House-G_IL-6","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-6","democrat":"Sean Casten","republican":"Peter J. Roskam","pollDem":45.61,"pollRep":44.4,"pollMargin":1.21,"actualDem":53.575255,"actualRep":46.424745,"actualMargin":7.150511,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.940511,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.940511,"individualPollMAE":5.940511,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":7.150511,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":1.21,"signedError":-5.940511,"selectedQuestionIds":["90653"],"selectedPollIds":["56393"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"31","race":"2014_Sen-G_MA","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Edward J. Markey","republican":"Brian J. Herr","pollDem":52.96,"pollRep":34.96,"pollMargin":18.0,"actualDem":58.988041,"actualRep":36.2152,"actualMargin":22.772842,"actualDRShare":95.203241,"signedError":-4.772842,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.772842,"individualPollMAE":5.663705,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2014-10-24","2014-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":23.884925,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-1.112083,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"198","pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":2.227158,"selectedQuestionIds":["42111"],"selectedPollIds":["34318"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-8.772842,"selectedQuestionIds":["42255"],"selectedPollIds":["34332"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-7.772842,"selectedQuestionIds":["42182"],"selectedPollIds":["34330"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"380","pollster":"Western New England University Polling Institute","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-2.772842,"selectedQuestionIds":["42107"],"selectedPollIds":["34356"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-6.772842,"selectedQuestionIds":["42124"],"selectedPollIds":["34376"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3118","race":"2002_House-G_UT-2","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-2","democrat":"Jim Matheson","republican":"John Swallow","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":42.5,"pollMargin":3.5,"actualDem":49.42659,"actualRep":48.694321,"actualMargin":0.732269,"actualDRShare":98.120911,"signedError":2.767731,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.767731,"individualPollMAE":2.767731,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2002-10-23","2002-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.732269,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2002-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.267731,"selectedQuestionIds":["139557"],"selectedPollIds":["74319"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.267731,"selectedQuestionIds":["139556"],"selectedPollIds":["74318"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"3142","race":"2002_House-G_WV-2","series":"house-district","year":2002,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2002,"electionDate":"2002-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"WV-2","democrat":"Jim Humphreys","republican":"Shelley Moore Capito","pollDem":32.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-21.0,"actualDem":39.956988,"actualRep":60.043012,"actualMargin":-20.086024,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.913976,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.913976,"individualPollMAE":0.913976,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2002-10-23","2002-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.086024,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"273","pollster":"RMS Research","date":"2002-10-23","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-0.913976,"selectedQuestionIds":["118184"],"selectedPollIds":["64227"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"315","race":"2018_House-G_IL-13","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-13","democrat":"Betsy Dirksen Londrigan","republican":"Rodney Davis","pollDem":40.97,"pollRep":46.08,"pollMargin":-5.11,"actualDem":49.618977,"actualRep":50.37844,"actualMargin":-0.759463,"actualDRShare":99.997417,"signedError":-4.350537,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.350537,"individualPollMAE":4.350537,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-0.759463,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":-5.11,"signedError":-4.350537,"selectedQuestionIds":["90780"],"selectedPollIds":["56445"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"316","race":"2018_House-G_IL-14","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-14","democrat":"Lauren Underwood","republican":"Randy Hultgren","pollDem":48.64,"pollRep":43.41,"pollMargin":5.23,"actualDem":52.501859,"actualRep":47.498141,"actualMargin":5.003718,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.226282,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.226282,"individualPollMAE":0.226282,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-02","2018-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.003718,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":5.23,"signedError":0.226282,"selectedQuestionIds":["91343"],"selectedPollIds":["56707"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3170","race":"2004_House-G_AR-2","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AR-2","democrat":"Victor F. Snyder","republican":"Marvin Parks","pollDem":60.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":24.0,"actualDem":58.169285,"actualRep":41.829269,"actualMargin":16.340016,"actualDRShare":99.998553,"signedError":7.659984,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.659984,"individualPollMAE":7.659984,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.340016,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":7.659984,"selectedQuestionIds":["118278"],"selectedPollIds":["64294"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"318","race":"2018_House-G_IL-16","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-16","democrat":"Sara Dady","republican":"Adam Kinzinger","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-14.0,"actualDem":40.875208,"actualRep":59.124011,"actualMargin":-18.248803,"actualDRShare":99.999218,"signedError":4.248803,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.248803,"individualPollMAE":4.248803,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-18.248803,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":4.248803,"selectedQuestionIds":["90935"],"selectedPollIds":["56529"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"32","race":"2014_Sen-G_AR","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Mark L. Pryor","republican":"Tom Cotton","pollDem":41.8,"pollRep":47.4,"pollMargin":-5.6,"actualDem":39.430328,"actualRep":56.497484,"actualMargin":-17.067156,"actualDRShare":95.927812,"signedError":11.467156,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.467156,"individualPollMAE":11.467156,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.067156,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":15.067156,"selectedQuestionIds":["40950"],"selectedPollIds":["33764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"242","pollster":"Opinion Research Associates","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":19.067156,"selectedQuestionIds":["112365"],"selectedPollIds":["62482"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":9.067156,"selectedQuestionIds":["125178"],"selectedPollIds":["34310"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":10.067156,"selectedQuestionIds":["42126"],"selectedPollIds":["34415"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"345","pollster":"University of Arkansas Department of Political Science","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":4.067156,"selectedQuestionIds":["42155"],"selectedPollIds":["34320"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3228","race":"2004_House-G_CO-3","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CO-3","democrat":"John T. Salazar","republican":"Greg Walcher","pollDem":47.5,"pollRep":37.5,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":50.552288,"actualRep":46.55948,"actualMargin":3.992807,"actualDRShare":97.111768,"signedError":6.007193,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.007193,"individualPollMAE":7.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.992807,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"91","pollster":"FM3 Research","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":13.007193,"selectedQuestionIds":["117850"],"selectedPollIds":["4577"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.992807,"selectedQuestionIds":["118274"],"selectedPollIds":["64290"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3232","race":"2004_House-G_CO-7","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CO-7","democrat":"David J. Thomas","republican":"Bob Beauprez","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":42.793142,"actualRep":54.717796,"actualMargin":-11.924654,"actualDRShare":97.510938,"signedError":5.924654,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.924654,"individualPollMAE":5.924654,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-26","2004-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.924654,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":5.924654,"selectedQuestionIds":["117982"],"selectedPollIds":["25178"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3234","race":"2004_House-G_CT-2","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-2","democrat":"Jim Sullivan","republican":"Robert R. Simmons","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":45.765571,"actualRep":54.192095,"actualMargin":-8.426524,"actualDRShare":99.957665,"signedError":5.426524,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.426524,"individualPollMAE":5.426524,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.426524,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"347","pollster":"University of Connecticut","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":5.426524,"selectedQuestionIds":["139117"],"selectedPollIds":["74172"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3236","race":"2004_House-G_CT-4","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-4","democrat":"Diane Farrell","republican":"Christopher H. Shays","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":47.5649,"actualRep":52.433724,"actualMargin":-4.868824,"actualDRShare":99.998625,"signedError":-0.131176,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.131176,"individualPollMAE":0.131176,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-27","2004-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.868824,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"347","pollster":"University of Connecticut","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-0.131176,"selectedQuestionIds":["139119"],"selectedPollIds":["74173"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"325","race":"2018_House-G_IN-5","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-5","democrat":"Dee Thornton","republican":"Susan W. Brooks","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":43.238318,"actualRep":56.761682,"actualMargin":-13.523364,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":7.523364,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.523364,"individualPollMAE":7.523364,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-13.523364,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":7.523364,"selectedQuestionIds":["90938"],"selectedPollIds":["56532"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3288","race":"2004_House-G_IL-8","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-8","democrat":"Melissa Bean","republican":"Philip Crane","pollDem":45.5,"pollRep":50.5,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":51.699563,"actualRep":48.300437,"actualMargin":3.399126,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-8.399126,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.399126,"individualPollMAE":8.399126,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-26","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.399126,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-5.399126,"selectedQuestionIds":["117891"],"selectedPollIds":["64064"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-11.399126,"selectedQuestionIds":["118014"],"selectedPollIds":["4354"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"329","race":"2018_House-G_IN-9","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-9","democrat":"Liz Watson","republican":"Trey Hollingsworth","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":43.517676,"actualRep":56.482324,"actualMargin":-12.964649,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.964649,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.964649,"individualPollMAE":5.964649,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-12.964649,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":5.964649,"selectedQuestionIds":["90942"],"selectedPollIds":["56532"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"330","race":"2018_House-G_KS-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-1","democrat":"Alan LaPolice","republican":"Roger Marshall","pollDem":36.2,"pollRep":51.1,"pollMargin":-14.9,"actualDem":31.854523,"actualRep":68.145477,"actualMargin":-36.290954,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":21.390954,"absoluteAverageMiss":21.390954,"individualPollMAE":21.390954,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-36.290954,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":-14.9,"signedError":21.390954,"selectedQuestionIds":["90977"],"selectedPollIds":["56545"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"331","race":"2018_House-G_KS-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-2","democrat":"Paul Davis","republican":"Steve Watkins","pollDem":42.05,"pollRep":43.186667,"pollMargin":-1.136667,"actualDem":46.794339,"actualRep":47.640241,"actualMargin":-0.845902,"actualDRShare":94.43458,"signedError":-0.290765,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.290765,"individualPollMAE":3.848033,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-0.845902,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-0.154098,"selectedQuestionIds":["90941"],"selectedPollIds":["56534"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":-6.9,"signedError":-6.054098,"selectedQuestionIds":["90978"],"selectedPollIds":["56545"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":4.49,"signedError":5.335902,"selectedQuestionIds":["90891"],"selectedPollIds":["56502"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3316","race":"2004_House-G_KS-3","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-3","democrat":"Dennis Moore","republican":"Kris W. Kobach","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":54.819369,"actualRep":43.349745,"actualMargin":11.469624,"actualDRShare":98.169114,"signedError":0.530376,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.530376,"individualPollMAE":0.530376,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.469624,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":0.530376,"selectedQuestionIds":["117961"],"selectedPollIds":["64117"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"332","race":"2018_House-G_KS-3","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-3","democrat":"Sharice Davids","republican":"Kevin Yoder","pollDem":55.4,"pollRep":42.6,"pollMargin":12.8,"actualDem":53.571305,"actualRep":43.908753,"actualMargin":9.662552,"actualDRShare":97.480058,"signedError":3.137448,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.137448,"individualPollMAE":3.137448,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":9.662552,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":12.8,"signedError":3.137448,"selectedQuestionIds":["90979"],"selectedPollIds":["56545"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3320","race":"2004_House-G_KY-3","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-3","democrat":"Tony Miller","republican":"Anne Meagher Northup","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":57.5,"pollMargin":-22.5,"actualDem":37.799326,"actualRep":60.257074,"actualMargin":-22.457748,"actualDRShare":98.0564,"signedError":-0.042252,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.042252,"individualPollMAE":1.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-23","2004-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-22.457748,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"174","pollster":"Louisville Courier-Journal","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-1.542252,"selectedQuestionIds":["117955"],"selectedPollIds":["64112"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":1.457748,"selectedQuestionIds":["118276"],"selectedPollIds":["64292"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"333","race":"2018_House-G_KS-4","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-4","democrat":"James A. Thompson","republican":"Ron Estes","pollDem":33.3,"pollRep":63.1,"pollMargin":-29.8,"actualDem":40.563593,"actualRep":59.436407,"actualMargin":-18.872815,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-10.927185,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.927185,"individualPollMAE":10.927185,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-18.872815,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":-29.8,"signedError":-10.927185,"selectedQuestionIds":["90980"],"selectedPollIds":["56545"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3333","race":"2004_House-G_ME-1","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-1","democrat":"Thomas H. Allen","republican":"Charlie Summers","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":16.0,"actualDem":59.736325,"actualRep":40.263675,"actualMargin":19.472651,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-3.472651,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.472651,"individualPollMAE":3.472651,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-29","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":19.472651,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-3.472651,"selectedQuestionIds":["118279"],"selectedPollIds":["4347"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3334","race":"2004_House-G_ME-2","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-2","democrat":"Michael H. Michaud","republican":"Brian N. Hamel","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":13.0,"actualDem":58.032064,"actualRep":39.467907,"actualMargin":18.564158,"actualDRShare":97.499971,"signedError":-5.564158,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.564158,"individualPollMAE":5.564158,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-29","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":18.564158,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-5.564158,"selectedQuestionIds":["118280"],"selectedPollIds":["4347"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3373","race":"2004_House-G_MN-6","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-6","democrat":"Patty Wetterling","republican":"Mark R. Kennedy","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":45.943259,"actualRep":53.991528,"actualMargin":-8.048268,"actualDRShare":99.934787,"signedError":-9.951732,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.951732,"individualPollMAE":9.951732,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-27","2004-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.048268,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-9.951732,"selectedQuestionIds":["139142"],"selectedPollIds":["74187"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3384","race":"2004_House-G_MO-5","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MO-5","democrat":"Emanuel Cleaver, II","republican":"Jeanne Patterson","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":55.192219,"actualRep":42.123027,"actualMargin":13.069192,"actualDRShare":97.315246,"signedError":-8.069192,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.069192,"individualPollMAE":8.069192,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.069192,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-8.069192,"selectedQuestionIds":["117963"],"selectedPollIds":["64119"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3389","race":"2004_House-G_MT-1","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MT-1","democrat":"Tracy Velazquez","republican":"Denny Rehberg","pollDem":28.0,"pollRep":63.0,"pollMargin":-35.0,"actualDem":32.777165,"actualRep":64.398172,"actualMargin":-31.621007,"actualDRShare":97.175337,"signedError":-3.378993,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.378993,"individualPollMAE":3.378993,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-31.621007,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-35.0,"signedError":-3.378993,"selectedQuestionIds":["139144"],"selectedPollIds":["4596"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"339","race":"2018_House-G_KY-6","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-6","democrat":"Amy McGrath","republican":"Andy Barr","pollDem":44.01,"pollRep":44.4,"pollMargin":-0.39,"actualDem":47.78532,"actualRep":50.998389,"actualMargin":-3.213069,"actualDRShare":98.783709,"signedError":2.823069,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.823069,"individualPollMAE":2.823069,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-3.213069,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-0.39,"signedError":2.823069,"selectedQuestionIds":["91345"],"selectedPollIds":["56708"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3390","race":"2004_House-G_NE-1","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-1","democrat":"Matt Connealy","republican":"Jeff Fortenberry","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":42.996243,"actualRep":54.232812,"actualMargin":-11.23657,"actualDRShare":97.229055,"signedError":5.23657,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.23657,"individualPollMAE":5.23657,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.23657,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"178","pollster":"MSR Group","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":5.23657,"selectedQuestionIds":["118056"],"selectedPollIds":["4600"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3391","race":"2004_House-G_NE-2","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-2","democrat":"Nancy P. Thompson","republican":"Lee Terry","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-24.0,"actualDem":36.150926,"actualRep":61.100879,"actualMargin":-24.949953,"actualDRShare":97.251806,"signedError":0.949953,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.949953,"individualPollMAE":0.949953,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-24.949953,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"178","pollster":"MSR Group","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":0.949953,"selectedQuestionIds":["118057"],"selectedPollIds":["4600"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3395","race":"2004_House-G_NV-3","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-3","democrat":"Tom Gallagher","republican":"Jon C. Porter","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":40.402057,"actualRep":54.457938,"actualMargin":-14.055881,"actualDRShare":94.859995,"signedError":4.055881,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.055881,"individualPollMAE":4.055881,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-26","2004-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.055881,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":4.055881,"selectedQuestionIds":["117983"],"selectedPollIds":["25186"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3396","race":"2004_House-G_NH-1","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-1","democrat":"Justin Nadeau","republican":"Jeb E. Bradley","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":36.56037,"actualRep":63.343765,"actualMargin":-26.783395,"actualDRShare":99.904135,"signedError":7.783395,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.783395,"individualPollMAE":7.783395,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-30","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-26.783395,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":7.783395,"selectedQuestionIds":["139152"],"selectedPollIds":["4325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3397","race":"2004_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Paul W. Hodes","republican":"Charles Bass","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":38.172544,"actualRep":58.254569,"actualMargin":-20.082025,"actualDRShare":96.427113,"signedError":2.082025,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.082025,"individualPollMAE":2.082025,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-30","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.082025,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":2.082025,"selectedQuestionIds":["139157"],"selectedPollIds":["4325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3411","race":"2004_House-G_NM-1","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-1","democrat":"Richard M. Romero","republican":"Heather A. Wilson","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":45.528506,"actualRep":54.399882,"actualMargin":-8.871376,"actualDRShare":99.928388,"signedError":0.871376,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.871376,"individualPollMAE":0.871376,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.871376,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":0.871376,"selectedQuestionIds":["118108"],"selectedPollIds":["4401"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3412","race":"2004_House-G_NM-2","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-2","democrat":"Gary K. King","republican":"Stevan Pearce","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":39.804419,"actualRep":60.195581,"actualMargin":-20.391162,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":8.391162,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.391162,"individualPollMAE":8.391162,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.391162,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":8.391162,"selectedQuestionIds":["118109"],"selectedPollIds":["4401"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3453","race":"2004_House-G_NC-11","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-11","democrat":"Patricia R. Keever","republican":"Charles H. Taylor","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":45.097749,"actualRep":54.902251,"actualMargin":-9.804501,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":10.804501,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.804501,"individualPollMAE":10.804501,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.804501,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"93","pollster":"Feldman Group","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":10.804501,"selectedQuestionIds":["117855"],"selectedPollIds":["64038"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"3475","race":"2004_House-G_OK-1","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OK-1","democrat":"Doug Dodd","republican":"John A. Sullivan","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-26.0,"actualDem":37.542051,"actualRep":60.188014,"actualMargin":-22.645963,"actualDRShare":97.730065,"signedError":-3.354037,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.354037,"individualPollMAE":3.354037,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-27","2004-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-22.645963,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":-3.354037,"selectedQuestionIds":["118277"],"selectedPollIds":["64293"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3497","race":"2004_House-G_PA-13","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-13","democrat":"Allyson Y. Schwartz","republican":"Melissa Brown","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":35.0,"pollMargin":18.0,"actualDem":55.744765,"actualRep":41.283704,"actualMargin":14.461061,"actualDRShare":97.028469,"signedError":3.538939,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.538939,"individualPollMAE":3.538939,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-26","2004-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":14.461061,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":3.538939,"selectedQuestionIds":["117863"],"selectedPollIds":["64045"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"35","race":"2014_Sen-GS_OK","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"GS","location":"OK","democrat":"Constance N. Johnson","republican":"James Lankford","pollDem":28.1,"pollRep":59.4,"pollMargin":-31.3,"actualDem":28.983542,"actualRep":67.853427,"actualMargin":-38.869885,"actualDRShare":96.83697,"signedError":7.569885,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.569885,"individualPollMAE":7.569885,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-27","2014-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-38.869885,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-31.3,"signedError":7.569885,"selectedQuestionIds":["42099"],"selectedPollIds":["34397"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3554","race":"2004_House-G_UT-1","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-1","democrat":"Steven Thompson","republican":"Rob Bishop","pollDem":22.6,"pollRep":59.85,"pollMargin":-37.25,"actualDem":29.129714,"actualRep":67.905266,"actualMargin":-38.775552,"actualDRShare":97.034981,"signedError":1.525552,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.525552,"individualPollMAE":5.75,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-23","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-38.775552,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-43.0,"signedError":-4.224448,"selectedQuestionIds":["139416"],"selectedPollIds":["55068"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"368","pollster":"Valley Research","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-31.5,"signedError":7.275552,"selectedQuestionIds":["139417"],"selectedPollIds":["25357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3555","race":"2004_House-G_UT-2","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-2","democrat":"Jim Matheson","republican":"John Swallow","pollDem":50.666667,"pollRep":37.8,"pollMargin":12.866667,"actualDem":54.756585,"actualRep":43.213985,"actualMargin":11.5426,"actualDRShare":97.97057,"signedError":1.324066,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.324066,"individualPollMAE":6.3142,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.5426,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-1.5426,"selectedQuestionIds":["117811"],"selectedPollIds":["55068"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"14","pollster":"Impact Research","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":11.4574,"selectedQuestionIds":["117535"],"selectedPollIds":["63832"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"368","pollster":"Valley Research","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":5.6,"signedError":-5.9426,"selectedQuestionIds":["120429"],"selectedPollIds":["25357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3556","race":"2004_House-G_UT-3","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-3","democrat":"Beau Babka","republican":"Chris Cannon","pollDem":26.9,"pollRep":53.75,"pollMargin":-26.85,"actualDem":32.517001,"actualRep":63.390345,"actualMargin":-30.873344,"actualDRShare":95.907346,"signedError":4.023344,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.023344,"individualPollMAE":4.023344,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-23","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-30.873344,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":0.873344,"selectedQuestionIds":["139419"],"selectedPollIds":["55068"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"368","pollster":"Valley Research","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-23.7,"signedError":7.173344,"selectedQuestionIds":["139420"],"selectedPollIds":["25357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3576","race":"2004_House-G_WA-8","series":"house-district","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WA-8","democrat":"Dave Ross","republican":"David G. Reichert","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":46.700882,"actualRep":51.500302,"actualMargin":-4.79942,"actualDRShare":98.201183,"signedError":-1.20058,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.20058,"individualPollMAE":1.20058,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.79942,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-1.20058,"selectedQuestionIds":["118273"],"selectedPollIds":["64289"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3597","race":"2006_House-G_AK-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AK-1","democrat":"Diane Benson","republican":"Don Young","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":40.00895,"actualRep":56.571843,"actualMargin":-16.562893,"actualDRShare":96.580792,"signedError":9.562893,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.562893,"individualPollMAE":9.562893,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-01","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-16.562893,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"136","pollster":"Hays Research Group","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":9.562893,"selectedQuestionIds":["138835"],"selectedPollIds":["73997"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"3598","race":"2006_House-G_AZ-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ-1","democrat":"Ellen S. Simon","republican":"Richard Renzi","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":43.446377,"actualRep":51.751993,"actualMargin":-8.305615,"actualDRShare":95.19837,"signedError":6.305615,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.305615,"individualPollMAE":6.305615,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.305615,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":6.305615,"selectedQuestionIds":["118186"],"selectedPollIds":["64229"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3602","race":"2006_House-G_AZ-5","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ-5","democrat":"Harry E. Mitchell","republican":"J.D. Hayworth","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":50.412356,"actualRep":46.44077,"actualMargin":3.971586,"actualDRShare":96.853126,"signedError":-1.971586,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.971586,"individualPollMAE":1.971586,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-30","2006-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.971586,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.971586,"selectedQuestionIds":["118294"],"selectedPollIds":["64308"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3605","race":"2006_House-G_AZ-8","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ-8","democrat":"Gabrielle Giffords","republican":"Randy J. Graf","pollDem":51.5,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":13.5,"actualDem":54.25469,"actualRep":42.089705,"actualMargin":12.164985,"actualDRShare":96.344395,"signedError":1.335015,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.335015,"individualPollMAE":1.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-26","2006-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.164985,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"381","pollster":"Wick Communications","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":2.835015,"selectedQuestionIds":["118459"],"selectedPollIds":["64391"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-0.164985,"selectedQuestionIds":["118492"],"selectedPollIds":["64411"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3607","race":"2006_House-G_AR-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AR-2","democrat":"Victor F. Snyder","republican":"Andy Mayberry","pollDem":60.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":60.527961,"actualRep":39.472039,"actualMargin":21.055923,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.055923,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.055923,"individualPollMAE":0.055923,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-28","2006-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":21.055923,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-0.055923,"selectedQuestionIds":["138843"],"selectedPollIds":["74004"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3613","race":"2006_House-G_CA-4","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-4","democrat":"Charles Duane Brown","republican":"John T. Doolittle","pollDem":44.5,"pollRep":49.5,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":45.865732,"actualRep":49.050716,"actualMargin":-3.184985,"actualDRShare":94.916448,"signedError":-1.815015,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.815015,"individualPollMAE":2.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.184985,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.184985,"selectedQuestionIds":["118188"],"selectedPollIds":["64230"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-3.815015,"selectedQuestionIds":["118302"],"selectedPollIds":["64315"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3620","race":"2006_House-G_CA-11","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-11","democrat":"Jerry McNerney","republican":"Richard W. Pombo","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":53.265718,"actualRep":46.734282,"actualMargin":6.531435,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.531435,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.531435,"individualPollMAE":4.531435,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.531435,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-4.531435,"selectedQuestionIds":["118187"],"selectedPollIds":["64230"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"363","race":"2018_House-G_ME-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-1","democrat":"Chellie M. Pingree","republican":"Mark Holbrook","pollDem":56.2,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":25.2,"actualDem":58.819832,"actualRep":32.506074,"actualMargin":26.313758,"actualDRShare":91.325906,"signedError":-1.113758,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.113758,"individualPollMAE":1.113758,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":26.313758,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":25.2,"signedError":-1.113758,"selectedQuestionIds":["91112"],"selectedPollIds":["56597"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3635","race":"2006_House-G_CA-26","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-26","democrat":"Cynthia Rodriguez Matthews","republican":"David T. Dreier","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":37.890189,"actualRep":56.953066,"actualMargin":-19.062877,"actualDRShare":94.843255,"signedError":0.062877,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.062877,"individualPollMAE":0.062877,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-31","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.062877,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":0.062877,"selectedQuestionIds":["138849"],"selectedPollIds":["74009"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"364","race":"2018_House-G_ME-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-2","democrat":"Jared Forrest Golden","republican":"Bruce Poliquin","pollDem":46.7,"pollRep":45.6,"pollMargin":1.1,"actualDem":45.580822,"actualRep":46.330415,"actualMargin":-0.749593,"actualDRShare":91.911237,"signedError":1.849593,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.849593,"individualPollMAE":1.849593,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":1.247108,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-1.9967,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":1.1,"signedError":1.849593,"selectedQuestionIds":["91113"],"selectedPollIds":["56597"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"365","race":"2018_House-G_MI-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MI-1","democrat":"Matt Morgan","republican":"Jack Bergman","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":43.683402,"actualRep":56.316598,"actualMargin":-12.633197,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.633197,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.633197,"individualPollMAE":0.633197,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-12.633197,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":0.633197,"selectedQuestionIds":["90939"],"selectedPollIds":["56531"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3659","race":"2006_House-G_CA-50","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-50","democrat":"Francine P. Busby","republican":"Brian P. Bilbray","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-14.0,"actualDem":43.498933,"actualRep":53.136847,"actualMargin":-9.637914,"actualDRShare":96.63578,"signedError":-4.362086,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.362086,"individualPollMAE":4.362086,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-02","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.637914,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-4.362086,"selectedQuestionIds":["118306"],"selectedPollIds":["64319"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3665","race":"2006_House-G_CO-3","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CO-3","democrat":"John T. Salazar","republican":"Scott Tipton","pollDem":57.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":19.0,"actualDem":61.586325,"actualRep":36.547015,"actualMargin":25.039309,"actualDRShare":98.13334,"signedError":-6.039309,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.039309,"individualPollMAE":6.039309,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-28","2006-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":25.039309,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-6.039309,"selectedQuestionIds":["118292"],"selectedPollIds":["64306"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3666","race":"2006_House-G_CO-4","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CO-4","democrat":"Angie Paccione","republican":"Marilyn N. Musgrave","pollDem":45.5,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":43.118202,"actualRep":45.605183,"actualMargin":-2.486981,"actualDRShare":88.723386,"signedError":3.486981,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.486981,"individualPollMAE":3.486981,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.486981,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":5.486981,"selectedQuestionIds":["118189"],"selectedPollIds":["64231"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.486981,"selectedQuestionIds":["118303"],"selectedPollIds":["64316"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3667","race":"2006_House-G_CO-5","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CO-5","democrat":"Jay Fawcett","republican":"Doug Lamborn","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":40.352396,"actualRep":59.618101,"actualMargin":-19.265705,"actualDRShare":99.970497,"signedError":11.265705,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.265705,"individualPollMAE":11.265705,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.265705,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":12.265705,"selectedQuestionIds":["117985"],"selectedPollIds":["55223"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":10.265705,"selectedQuestionIds":["118307"],"selectedPollIds":["64320"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3669","race":"2006_House-G_CO-7","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CO-7","democrat":"Ed Perlmutter","republican":"Rick O'Donnell","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":41.333333,"pollMargin":11.666667,"actualDem":54.933077,"actualRep":42.062779,"actualMargin":12.870298,"actualDRShare":96.995856,"signedError":-1.203631,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.203631,"individualPollMAE":4.043234,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.870298,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-7.870298,"selectedQuestionIds":["118190"],"selectedPollIds":["64231"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":3.129702,"selectedQuestionIds":["118295"],"selectedPollIds":["64309"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":1.129702,"selectedQuestionIds":["118493"],"selectedPollIds":["64412"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3671","race":"2006_House-G_CT-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-2","democrat":"Joe Courtney","republican":"Robert R. Simmons","pollDem":46.333333,"pollRep":44.666667,"pollMargin":1.666667,"actualDem":50.01712,"actualRep":49.98288,"actualMargin":0.034239,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.632428,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.632428,"individualPollMAE":4.988587,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-26"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.034239,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.965761,"selectedQuestionIds":["117903"],"selectedPollIds":["64075"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.965761,"selectedQuestionIds":["118191"],"selectedPollIds":["64232"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.034239,"selectedQuestionIds":["118494"],"selectedPollIds":["64413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3673","race":"2006_House-G_CT-4","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-4","democrat":"Diane Farrell","republican":"Christopher H. Shays","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":47.579407,"actualRep":50.95709,"actualMargin":-3.377683,"actualDRShare":98.536497,"signedError":2.377683,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.377683,"individualPollMAE":8.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.377683,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-5.622317,"selectedQuestionIds":["118192"],"selectedPollIds":["64232"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":10.377683,"selectedQuestionIds":["118495"],"selectedPollIds":["64413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3674","race":"2006_House-G_CT-5","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-5","democrat":"Christopher Murphy","republican":"Nancy L. Johnson","pollDem":48.5,"pollRep":42.5,"pollMargin":6.0,"actualDem":56.463609,"actualRep":43.536391,"actualMargin":12.927219,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-6.927219,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.927219,"individualPollMAE":6.927219,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.927219,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-4.927219,"selectedQuestionIds":["118193"],"selectedPollIds":["64232"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"347","pollster":"University of Connecticut","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-8.927219,"selectedQuestionIds":["118452"],"selectedPollIds":["64386"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3680","race":"2006_House-G_FL-5","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-5","democrat":"John T. Russell","republican":"Virginia Brown-Waite","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-14.0,"actualDem":40.149974,"actualRep":59.850026,"actualMargin":-19.700052,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.700052,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.700052,"individualPollMAE":5.700052,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-28","2006-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.700052,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":5.700052,"selectedQuestionIds":["138869"],"selectedPollIds":["74027"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3684","race":"2006_House-G_FL-9","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-9","democrat":"Phyllis Busansky","republican":"Gus Michael Bilirakis","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":44.078304,"actualRep":55.91306,"actualMargin":-11.834755,"actualDRShare":99.991364,"signedError":-0.165245,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.165245,"individualPollMAE":0.165245,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-02","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.834755,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-0.165245,"selectedQuestionIds":["118308"],"selectedPollIds":["64321"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3688","race":"2006_House-G_FL-13","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-13","democrat":"Christine L. Jennings","republican":"Vern Buchanan","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":45.5,"pollMargin":-0.5,"actualDem":49.92256,"actualRep":50.07744,"actualMargin":-0.15488,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.34512,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.34512,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.15488,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-2.84512,"selectedQuestionIds":["118085"],"selectedPollIds":["64178"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.15488,"selectedQuestionIds":["118194"],"selectedPollIds":["64233"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3697","race":"2006_House-G_FL-22","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-22","democrat":"Ron Klein","republican":"E. Clay Shaw","pollDem":49.5,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":5.5,"actualDem":50.882704,"actualRep":47.12577,"actualMargin":3.756935,"actualDRShare":98.008474,"signedError":1.743065,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.743065,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.756935,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.756935,"selectedQuestionIds":["118195"],"selectedPollIds":["64233"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":5.243065,"selectedQuestionIds":["118507"],"selectedPollIds":["64424"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"37","race":"2012_Pres-G_US","series":"presidential-national","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":48.368,"pollRep":46.9832,"pollMargin":1.3848,"actualDem":51.063707,"actualRep":47.204021,"actualMargin":3.859686,"actualDRShare":98.267728,"signedError":-2.474886,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.474886,"individualPollMAE":2.577336,"n":25,"pollsters":25,"sourceQuestions":53,"selectedQuestions":27,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1683/2012pres.pdf","outcomeSourceName":"FEC official national presidential counts","archiveActualMargin":3.934715,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.075029,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37110"],"selectedPollIds":["30768"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37107"],"selectedPollIds":["30765"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37147"],"selectedPollIds":["30793"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["36642"],"selectedPollIds":["43261"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37037"],"selectedPollIds":["30732"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["36579"],"selectedPollIds":["30467"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"40","pollster":"CVOTER","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37146"],"selectedPollIds":["30792"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.140314,"selectedQuestionIds":["37152"],"selectedPollIds":["30796"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37098","37099"],"selectedPollIds":["30758","30759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37042"],"selectedPollIds":["30737"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["36936"],"selectedPollIds":["30676"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"139","pollster":"High Point University Survey Research Center","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["36717"],"selectedPollIds":["30551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37112"],"selectedPollIds":["30770"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37162"],"selectedPollIds":["30801"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37121"],"selectedPollIds":["30776"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"233","pollster":"North Star Opinion Research","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-4.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["36522"],"selectedPollIds":["30434"],"partisanFlags":["REP,DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"253","pollster":"Pew Research Center","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37032"],"selectedPollIds":["30713"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":1.140314,"selectedQuestionIds":["36627"],"selectedPollIds":["30497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37044","37100"],"selectedPollIds":["30739","30760"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"265","pollster":"Purple Strategies","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["36758"],"selectedPollIds":["30576"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"270","pollster":"RAND (American Life Panel)","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":3.32,"signedError":-0.539686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37159"],"selectedPollIds":["30798"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-4.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37161"],"selectedPollIds":["30800"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"144","pollster":"TIPP Insights","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":1.6,"signedError":-2.259686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37160"],"selectedPollIds":["30799"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.859686,"selectedQuestionIds":["159407"],"selectedPollIds":["42239"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":-0.3,"signedError":-4.159686,"selectedQuestionIds":["37169"],"selectedPollIds":["30807"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"370","race":"2018_House-G_MI-6","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MI-6","democrat":"Matt Longjohn","republican":"Fred Upton","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":45.693468,"actualRep":50.244345,"actualMargin":-4.550876,"actualDRShare":95.937813,"signedError":6.550876,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.550876,"individualPollMAE":6.550876,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-4.550876,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":6.550876,"selectedQuestionIds":["91554"],"selectedPollIds":["56812"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"3712","race":"2006_House-G_GA-12","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-12","democrat":"John Barrow","republican":"Max Burns","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":3.0,"actualDem":50.30329,"actualRep":49.69671,"actualMargin":0.60658,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":2.39342,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.39342,"individualPollMAE":2.39342,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.60658,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.39342,"selectedQuestionIds":["138878"],"selectedPollIds":["74036"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3716","race":"2006_House-G_ID-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"ID-1","democrat":"Larry Grant","republican":"William T. Sali","pollDem":37.5,"pollRep":36.5,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":44.80459,"actualRep":49.937924,"actualMargin":-5.133334,"actualDRShare":94.742514,"signedError":6.133334,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.133334,"individualPollMAE":6.133334,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.197912,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.064578,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"128","pollster":"Greg Smith & Associates","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":9.133334,"selectedQuestionIds":["117899"],"selectedPollIds":["55338"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":3.133334,"selectedQuestionIds":["117986"],"selectedPollIds":["55337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"372","race":"2018_House-G_MI-8","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MI-8","democrat":"Elissa Slotkin","republican":"Mike Bishop","pollDem":48.025,"pollRep":44.21,"pollMargin":3.815,"actualDem":50.609936,"actualRep":46.775549,"actualMargin":3.834388,"actualDRShare":97.385485,"signedError":-0.019388,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.019388,"individualPollMAE":2.815,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-11-02","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":3.834388,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.834388,"selectedQuestionIds":["91555"],"selectedPollIds":["56812"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":6.63,"signedError":2.795612,"selectedQuestionIds":["91307"],"selectedPollIds":["56692"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3723","race":"2006_House-G_IL-6","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-6","democrat":"Tammy Duckworth","republican":"Peter J. Roskam","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":43.5,"pollMargin":7.5,"actualDem":48.647707,"actualRep":51.350607,"actualMargin":-2.7029,"actualDRShare":99.998314,"signedError":10.2029,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.2029,"individualPollMAE":10.2029,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.7029,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.7029,"selectedQuestionIds":["118197"],"selectedPollIds":["64234"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":16.7029,"selectedQuestionIds":["118496"],"selectedPollIds":["64414"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3725","race":"2006_House-G_IL-8","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-8","democrat":"Melissa Bean","republican":"David McSweeney","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":50.904064,"actualRep":44.014526,"actualMargin":6.889538,"actualDRShare":94.918591,"signedError":-1.889538,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.889538,"individualPollMAE":1.889538,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.889538,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-1.889538,"selectedQuestionIds":["118198"],"selectedPollIds":["64234"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3727","race":"2006_House-G_IL-10","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-10","democrat":"Daniel J. Seals","republican":"Mark Kirk","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":46.624268,"actualRep":53.375237,"actualMargin":-6.750969,"actualDRShare":99.999505,"signedError":8.750969,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.750969,"individualPollMAE":8.750969,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-6.750969,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":8.750969,"selectedQuestionIds":["118196"],"selectedPollIds":["64234"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3738","race":"2006_House-G_IN-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-2","democrat":"Joe Donnelly","republican":"Chris Chocola","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":53.977098,"actualRep":46.022902,"actualMargin":7.954196,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.045804,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.045804,"individualPollMAE":5.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.954196,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-4.954196,"selectedQuestionIds":["118199"],"selectedPollIds":["64235"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":5.045804,"selectedQuestionIds":["118497"],"selectedPollIds":["64415"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3744","race":"2006_House-G_IN-8","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-8","democrat":"Brad Ellsworth","republican":"John Nathan Hostettler","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":61.017683,"actualRep":38.982317,"actualMargin":22.035366,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-12.035366,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.035366,"individualPollMAE":12.035366,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":22.035366,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-12.035366,"selectedQuestionIds":["118200"],"selectedPollIds":["64235"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3745","race":"2006_House-G_IN-9","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-9","democrat":"Baron P. Hill","republican":"Mike Sodrel","pollDem":47.666667,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":2.666667,"actualDem":50.013358,"actualRep":45.492169,"actualMargin":4.521189,"actualDRShare":95.505526,"signedError":-1.854522,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.854522,"individualPollMAE":4.17373,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.521189,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.478811,"selectedQuestionIds":["118201"],"selectedPollIds":["64235"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-6.521189,"selectedQuestionIds":["118304"],"selectedPollIds":["64317"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.521189,"selectedQuestionIds":["118498"],"selectedPollIds":["64415"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3746","race":"2006_House-G_IA-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-1","democrat":"Bruce L. Braley","republican":"Mike Whalen","pollDem":52.5,"pollRep":38.5,"pollMargin":14.0,"actualDem":55.100782,"actualRep":43.247477,"actualMargin":11.853305,"actualDRShare":98.348259,"signedError":2.146695,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.146695,"individualPollMAE":7.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-26","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.853305,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":9.146695,"selectedQuestionIds":["118226"],"selectedPollIds":["55335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-4.853305,"selectedQuestionIds":["118499"],"selectedPollIds":["64416"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3747","race":"2006_House-G_IA-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-2","democrat":"Dave Loebsack","republican":"James A. Leach","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":51.427002,"actualRep":48.572998,"actualMargin":2.854004,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.854004,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.854004,"individualPollMAE":4.854004,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.854004,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-4.854004,"selectedQuestionIds":["138931"],"selectedPollIds":["74059"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3752","race":"2006_House-G_KS-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-2","democrat":"Nancy E. Boyda","republican":"Jim R. Ryun","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":9.0,"actualDem":50.602052,"actualRep":47.139589,"actualMargin":3.462463,"actualDRShare":97.741641,"signedError":5.537537,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.537537,"individualPollMAE":5.537537,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-27","2006-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.462463,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"5","pollster":"ASA Marketing Group","date":"2006-10-27","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":5.537537,"selectedQuestionIds":["117542"],"selectedPollIds":["63839"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"3756","race":"2006_House-G_KY-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-2","democrat":"John Michael Weaver","republican":"Ron Lewis","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":46.5,"pollMargin":-5.5,"actualDem":44.594159,"actualRep":55.405841,"actualMargin":-10.811682,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.311682,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.311682,"individualPollMAE":8.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-28","2006-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.811682,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"167","pollster":"Lauer Johnson Research","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":13.811682,"selectedQuestionIds":["117950"],"selectedPollIds":["64107"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"371","pollster":"Voter/Consumer Research","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-3.188318,"selectedQuestionIds":["118457"],"selectedPollIds":["64390"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"3757","race":"2006_House-G_KY-3","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-3","democrat":"John Yarmuth","republican":"Anne Meagher Northup","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":46.333333,"pollMargin":1.666667,"actualDem":50.622611,"actualRep":48.175563,"actualMargin":2.447048,"actualDRShare":98.798173,"signedError":-0.780381,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.780381,"individualPollMAE":4.850984,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.447048,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"174","pollster":"Louisville Courier-Journal","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-8.447048,"selectedQuestionIds":["117956"],"selectedPollIds":["64113"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.552952,"selectedQuestionIds":["118202"],"selectedPollIds":["64236"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.552952,"selectedQuestionIds":["118311"],"selectedPollIds":["64324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3758","race":"2006_House-G_KY-4","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-4","democrat":"Kenneth R. Lucas","republican":"Geoff Davis","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":45.666667,"pollMargin":0.333333,"actualDem":43.377107,"actualRep":51.690458,"actualMargin":-8.313351,"actualDRShare":95.067565,"signedError":8.646685,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.646685,"individualPollMAE":8.646685,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.313351,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":12.313351,"selectedQuestionIds":["118203"],"selectedPollIds":["64236"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":2.313351,"selectedQuestionIds":["118312"],"selectedPollIds":["64324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":11.313351,"selectedQuestionIds":["118500"],"selectedPollIds":["64417"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"38","race":"2008_Pres-G_US","series":"presidential-national","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":51.363636,"pollRep":43.331818,"pollMargin":8.031818,"actualDem":52.925515,"actualRep":45.652714,"actualMargin":7.272801,"actualDRShare":98.57823,"signedError":0.759017,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.759017,"individualPollMAE":1.761564,"n":22,"pollsters":22,"sourceQuestions":55,"selectedQuestions":22,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1669/tables2008.pdf","outcomeSourceName":"FEC official national presidential counts","archiveActualMargin":7.3998,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.126999,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["19698"],"selectedPollIds":["14858"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["19724"],"selectedPollIds":["14884"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"31","pollster":"Big Ten","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["20475"],"selectedPollIds":["63533"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["120010"],"selectedPollIds":["14962"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"810","pollster":"CBS News","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["19794"],"selectedPollIds":["14954"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":5.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["23129"],"selectedPollIds":["18176"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"812","pollster":"FTI Consulting","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-2.272801,"selectedQuestionIds":["20026"],"selectedPollIds":["15186"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.272801,"selectedQuestionIds":["20004"],"selectedPollIds":["15164"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":3.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["150179"],"selectedPollIds":["15145"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["20025"],"selectedPollIds":["15185"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["20158"],"selectedPollIds":["15318"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.272801,"selectedQuestionIds":["20081"],"selectedPollIds":["15241"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"164","pollster":"Knowledge Networks","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.272801,"selectedQuestionIds":["20082"],"selectedPollIds":["15242"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-2.272801,"selectedQuestionIds":["19776"],"selectedPollIds":["14936"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2008-11-03","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["20121"],"selectedPollIds":["15281"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.272801,"selectedQuestionIds":["19897"],"selectedPollIds":["15057"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"253","pollster":"Pew Research Center","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-1.272801,"selectedQuestionIds":["20230"],"selectedPollIds":["15390"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":4.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["20179"],"selectedPollIds":["15339"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-1.272801,"selectedQuestionIds":["149912"],"selectedPollIds":["77579"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"144","pollster":"TIPP Insights","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":4.7,"signedError":-2.572801,"selectedQuestionIds":["20461"],"selectedPollIds":["15621"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.272801,"selectedQuestionIds":["20537"],"selectedPollIds":["15697"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":3.727199,"selectedQuestionIds":["20620"],"selectedPollIds":["15780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3804","race":"2006_House-G_MN-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-1","democrat":"Tim Walz","republican":"Gilbert W. Gutknecht","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":52.736559,"actualRep":47.122245,"actualMargin":5.614315,"actualDRShare":99.858804,"signedError":-8.614315,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.614315,"individualPollMAE":8.614315,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.614315,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-8.614315,"selectedQuestionIds":["118204"],"selectedPollIds":["64237"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3808","race":"2006_House-G_MN-5","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-5","democrat":"Keith Ellison","republican":"Alan Fine","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":24.0,"pollMargin":25.0,"actualDem":55.556236,"actualRep":21.340111,"actualMargin":34.216125,"actualDRShare":76.896348,"signedError":-9.216125,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.216125,"individualPollMAE":9.216125,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-02","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":34.216125,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":-9.216125,"selectedQuestionIds":["138972"],"selectedPollIds":["74096"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3809","race":"2006_House-G_MN-6","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-6","democrat":"Patty Wetterling","republican":"Michele Bachmann","pollDem":43.666667,"pollRep":49.666667,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":42.07447,"actualRep":50.050962,"actualMargin":-7.976491,"actualDRShare":92.125432,"signedError":1.976491,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.976491,"individualPollMAE":3.325497,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.976491,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":6.976491,"selectedQuestionIds":["118205"],"selectedPollIds":["64237"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":0.976491,"selectedQuestionIds":["118309"],"selectedPollIds":["64322"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-2.023509,"selectedQuestionIds":["118501"],"selectedPollIds":["64418"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3825","race":"2006_House-G_MT-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MT-1","democrat":"Monica J. Lindeen","republican":"Denny Rehberg","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-24.0,"actualDem":39.129825,"actualRep":58.879409,"actualMargin":-19.749584,"actualDRShare":98.009234,"signedError":-4.250416,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.250416,"individualPollMAE":4.250416,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-01","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.749584,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-4.250416,"selectedQuestionIds":["117991"],"selectedPollIds":["24340"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3826","race":"2006_House-G_NE-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-1","democrat":"Maxine B. Moul","republican":"Jeff Fortenberry","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":41.644364,"actualRep":58.355636,"actualMargin":-16.711272,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":11.711272,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.711272,"individualPollMAE":11.711272,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-01","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-16.711272,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"214","pollster":"Momentum Analysis","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":11.711272,"selectedQuestionIds":["118024"],"selectedPollIds":["64149"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"3828","race":"2006_House-G_NE-3","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-3","democrat":"Scott Kleeb","republican":"Adrian Smith","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":6.0,"actualDem":45.007812,"actualRep":54.992188,"actualMargin":-9.984376,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":15.984376,"absoluteAverageMiss":15.984376,"individualPollMAE":15.984376,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-29","2006-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.984376,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"250","pollster":"PSB Research","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":15.984376,"selectedQuestionIds":["118076"],"selectedPollIds":["64169"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"3830","race":"2006_House-G_NV-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-2","democrat":"Jill Talbot Derby","republican":"Dean Heller","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":44.942937,"actualRep":50.346333,"actualMargin":-5.403396,"actualDRShare":95.28927,"signedError":-2.596604,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.596604,"individualPollMAE":2.596604,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-28","2006-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.403396,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-2.596604,"selectedQuestionIds":["117987"],"selectedPollIds":["24349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3831","race":"2006_House-G_NV-3","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-3","democrat":"Tessa M. Hafen","republican":"Jon C. Porter","pollDem":41.5,"pollRep":48.5,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":46.57383,"actualRep":48.456007,"actualMargin":-1.882178,"actualDRShare":95.029837,"signedError":-5.117822,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.117822,"individualPollMAE":5.117822,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.882178,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-5.117822,"selectedQuestionIds":["117988"],"selectedPollIds":["24349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-5.117822,"selectedQuestionIds":["118206"],"selectedPollIds":["64238"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3832","race":"2006_House-G_NH-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-1","democrat":"Carol Shea-Porter","republican":"Jeb E. Bradley","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":51.274335,"actualRep":48.644699,"actualMargin":2.629636,"actualDRShare":99.919033,"signedError":-11.629636,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.629636,"individualPollMAE":11.629636,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-04","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.629636,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-11.629636,"selectedQuestionIds":["118438"],"selectedPollIds":["55551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3833","race":"2006_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Paul W. Hodes","republican":"Charles Bass","pollDem":47.333333,"pollRep":47.333333,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":52.713144,"actualRep":45.609137,"actualMargin":7.104008,"actualDRShare":98.322281,"signedError":-7.104008,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.104008,"individualPollMAE":7.104008,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.104008,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-10.104008,"selectedQuestionIds":["138994"],"selectedPollIds":["74107"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-4.104008,"selectedQuestionIds":["118207"],"selectedPollIds":["64239"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-7.104008,"selectedQuestionIds":["138989"],"selectedPollIds":["55551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3840","race":"2006_House-G_NJ-7","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-7","democrat":"Linda Stender","republican":"Michael Ferguson","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":47.948763,"actualRep":49.428105,"actualMargin":-1.479342,"actualDRShare":97.376868,"signedError":-1.520658,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.520658,"individualPollMAE":1.520658,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.479342,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.520658,"selectedQuestionIds":["118208"],"selectedPollIds":["64240"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3847","race":"2006_House-G_NM-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-1","democrat":"Patricia A. Madrid","republican":"Heather A. Wilson","pollDem":49.5,"pollRep":46.25,"pollMargin":3.25,"actualDem":49.796079,"actualRep":50.203921,"actualMargin":-0.407842,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":3.657842,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.657842,"individualPollMAE":4.453921,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-26","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.407842,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-1.592158,"selectedQuestionIds":["118086"],"selectedPollIds":["64179"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.407842,"selectedQuestionIds":["118111"],"selectedPollIds":["64197"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.407842,"selectedQuestionIds":["118313"],"selectedPollIds":["64325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":9.407842,"selectedQuestionIds":["118502"],"selectedPollIds":["64419"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3848","race":"2006_House-G_NM-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-2","democrat":"Albert D. Kissling","republican":"Stevan Pearce","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-26.0,"actualDem":40.493604,"actualRep":59.419788,"actualMargin":-18.926184,"actualDRShare":99.913392,"signedError":-7.073816,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.073816,"individualPollMAE":7.073816,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-01","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-18.926184,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":-7.073816,"selectedQuestionIds":["139027"],"selectedPollIds":["64197"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3849","race":"2006_House-G_NM-3","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-3","democrat":"Tom Udall","republican":"Ronald M. Dolin","pollDem":71.0,"pollRep":20.0,"pollMargin":51.0,"actualDem":74.642322,"actualRep":25.357678,"actualMargin":49.284643,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.715357,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.715357,"individualPollMAE":1.715357,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-01","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":49.284643,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":51.0,"signedError":1.715357,"selectedQuestionIds":["139028"],"selectedPollIds":["64197"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3852","race":"2006_House-G_NY-3","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-3","democrat":"David L. Mejias","republican":"Peter King","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":41.3868,"actualRep":52.761522,"actualMargin":-11.374722,"actualDRShare":94.148321,"signedError":4.374722,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.374722,"individualPollMAE":4.374722,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.571768,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-5.802954,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":4.374722,"selectedQuestionIds":["118213"],"selectedPollIds":["64241"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3868","race":"2006_House-G_NY-19","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-19","democrat":"John Hall","republican":"Sue W. Kelly","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":47.791552,"actualRep":45.519378,"actualMargin":2.272174,"actualDRShare":93.31093,"signedError":-0.272174,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.272174,"individualPollMAE":0.272174,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.820947,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-7.548773,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.272174,"selectedQuestionIds":["118209"],"selectedPollIds":["64241"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3869","race":"2006_House-G_NY-20","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-20","democrat":"Kirsten E. Gillibrand","republican":"John E. Sweeney","pollDem":47.333333,"pollRep":41.666667,"pollMargin":5.666667,"actualDem":50.006992,"actualRep":44.168421,"actualMargin":5.83857,"actualDRShare":94.175413,"signedError":-0.171904,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.171904,"individualPollMAE":3.612857,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.918462,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-3.079892,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.83857,"selectedQuestionIds":["117900"],"selectedPollIds":["64072"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":5.16143,"selectedQuestionIds":["118210"],"selectedPollIds":["64241"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.83857,"selectedQuestionIds":["118228"],"selectedPollIds":["64250"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3874","race":"2006_House-G_NY-25","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-25","democrat":"Daniel B. Maffei","republican":"James T. Walsh","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":-0.5,"actualDem":47.119585,"actualRep":48.622812,"actualMargin":-1.503227,"actualDRShare":95.742397,"signedError":1.003227,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.003227,"individualPollMAE":7.0,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.143222,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-5.646449,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"30","pollster":"Benenson Strategy Group","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.496773,"selectedQuestionIds":["117556"],"selectedPollIds":["63853"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"158","pollster":"Jeffrey Stonecash","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-11.496773,"selectedQuestionIds":["117948"],"selectedPollIds":["64105"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":10.503227,"selectedQuestionIds":["118211"],"selectedPollIds":["64241"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-28","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":5.503227,"selectedQuestionIds":["139034"],"selectedPollIds":["74120"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3875","race":"2006_House-G_NY-26","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-26","democrat":"Jack Davis","republican":"Thomas M. Reynolds","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":48.5,"pollMargin":-2.5,"actualDem":45.058134,"actualRep":48.783287,"actualMargin":-3.725152,"actualDRShare":93.841421,"signedError":1.225152,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.225152,"individualPollMAE":1.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-31","2006-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.023861,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.298709,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-02","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-0.274848,"selectedQuestionIds":["118310"],"selectedPollIds":["64323"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.725152,"selectedQuestionIds":["118508"],"selectedPollIds":["64425"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3878","race":"2006_House-G_NY-29","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-29","democrat":"Eric J. Massa","republican":"John R. Kuhl","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":11.0,"actualDem":46.150014,"actualRep":48.93302,"actualMargin":-2.783006,"actualDRShare":95.083033,"signedError":13.783006,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.783006,"individualPollMAE":13.783006,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.488145,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-4.27115,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":13.783006,"selectedQuestionIds":["118212"],"selectedPollIds":["64241"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3886","race":"2006_House-G_NC-8","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-8","democrat":"Lawrence Webb Kissell","republican":"Robert C. Hayes","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":49.864635,"actualRep":50.135365,"actualMargin":-0.270731,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":4.270731,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.270731,"individualPollMAE":4.270731,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.270731,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.270731,"selectedQuestionIds":["118215"],"selectedPollIds":["64242"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3889","race":"2006_House-G_NC-11","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-11","democrat":"Joseph Heath Shuler","republican":"Charles H. Taylor","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":43.333333,"pollMargin":7.666667,"actualDem":53.794433,"actualRep":46.205567,"actualMargin":7.588867,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.0778,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.0778,"individualPollMAE":1.803711,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.588867,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"240","pollster":"OnPoint","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.411133,"selectedQuestionIds":["139043"],"selectedPollIds":["74126"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.411133,"selectedQuestionIds":["118214"],"selectedPollIds":["64242"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-2.588867,"selectedQuestionIds":["118503"],"selectedPollIds":["64420"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3893","race":"2006_House-G_OH-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-1","democrat":"John Cranley","republican":"Steve Chabot","pollDem":48.5,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":5.5,"actualDem":47.751454,"actualRep":52.248546,"actualMargin":-4.497093,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":9.997093,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.997093,"individualPollMAE":9.997093,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.497093,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":13.497093,"selectedQuestionIds":["117907"],"selectedPollIds":["64079"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":6.497093,"selectedQuestionIds":["118216"],"selectedPollIds":["64243"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3894","race":"2006_House-G_OH-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-2","democrat":"Victoria Wells Wulsin","republican":"Jean Schmidt","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":49.392854,"actualRep":50.450057,"actualMargin":-1.057203,"actualDRShare":99.842911,"signedError":0.057203,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.057203,"individualPollMAE":4.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.057203,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-3.942797,"selectedQuestionIds":["118218"],"selectedPollIds":["64243"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.057203,"selectedQuestionIds":["118296"],"selectedPollIds":["64310"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3898","race":"2006_House-G_OH-6","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-6","democrat":"Charles A. Wilson","republican":"Charles R. Blasdel","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":19.0,"actualDem":62.07913,"actualRep":37.92087,"actualMargin":24.15826,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.15826,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.15826,"individualPollMAE":5.15826,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-11-01","2006-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":24.15826,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-01","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-5.15826,"selectedQuestionIds":["118305"],"selectedPollIds":["64318"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"39","race":"2004_Pres-G_US","series":"presidential-national","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":47.404545,"pollRep":48.418182,"pollMargin":-1.013636,"actualDem":48.267123,"actualRep":50.730148,"actualMargin":-2.463026,"actualDRShare":98.997271,"signedError":1.44939,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.44939,"individualPollMAE":2.448014,"n":22,"pollsters":22,"sourceQuestions":52,"selectedQuestions":24,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1630/2004tables.pdf","outcomeSourceName":"FEC official national presidential counts","archiveActualMargin":-2.443569,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.019457,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["19627"],"selectedPollIds":["15638"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"7","pollster":"Abt Associates","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.536974,"selectedQuestionIds":["116954","20384"],"selectedPollIds":["15544","38564"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":2.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["120069"],"selectedPollIds":["14874"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"810","pollster":"CBS News","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["149040"],"selectedPollIds":["77266"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["116962"],"selectedPollIds":["63536"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["19854"],"selectedPollIds":["15014"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["19819"],"selectedPollIds":["14993"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["117025","117035"],"selectedPollIds":["63584","63593"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["20134"],"selectedPollIds":["15294"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":5.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["19746"],"selectedPollIds":["14906"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-3.536974,"selectedQuestionIds":["122779"],"selectedPollIds":["14920"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["20089"],"selectedPollIds":["15249"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2004-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["20106"],"selectedPollIds":["38581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":4.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["19872"],"selectedPollIds":["15032"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"253","pollster":"Pew Research Center","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-0.536974,"selectedQuestionIds":["20200"],"selectedPollIds":["15360"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-3.536974,"selectedQuestionIds":["20160"],"selectedPollIds":["15320"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["20057"],"selectedPollIds":["15217"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-1.7,"signedError":0.763026,"selectedQuestionIds":["117051"],"selectedPollIds":["27901"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"144","pollster":"TIPP Insights","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-3.3,"signedError":-0.836974,"selectedQuestionIds":["20413"],"selectedPollIds":["15573"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"385","pollster":"The Winston Group","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["124141"],"selectedPollIds":["66602"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":5.463026,"selectedQuestionIds":["149501"],"selectedPollIds":["77444"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-11-01","pollMargin":-0.3,"signedError":2.163026,"selectedQuestionIds":["117572"],"selectedPollIds":["63864"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3904","race":"2006_House-G_OH-12","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-12","democrat":"Robert Shamansky","republican":"Patrick J. Tiberi","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":42.697564,"actualRep":57.302436,"actualMargin":-14.604871,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":9.604871,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.604871,"individualPollMAE":9.604871,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.604871,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":9.604871,"selectedQuestionIds":["118217"],"selectedPollIds":["64243"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3910","race":"2006_House-G_OH-18","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-18","democrat":"Zachary T. Space","republican":"Joy Padgett","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":20.0,"actualDem":62.059788,"actualRep":37.940212,"actualMargin":24.119576,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.119576,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.119576,"individualPollMAE":4.119576,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-26","2006-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":24.119576,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-4.119576,"selectedQuestionIds":["118504"],"selectedPollIds":["64421"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3915","race":"2006_House-G_OK-5","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OK-5","democrat":"David Hunter","republican":"Mary Fallin","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-22.0,"actualDem":37.296938,"actualRep":60.377442,"actualMargin":-23.080504,"actualDRShare":97.67438,"signedError":1.080504,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.080504,"individualPollMAE":1.080504,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-30","2006-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-23.080504,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":1.080504,"selectedQuestionIds":["118297"],"selectedPollIds":["64311"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3924","race":"2006_House-G_PA-4","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-4","democrat":"Jason Altmire","republican":"Melissa A. Hart","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":51.891107,"actualRep":48.034902,"actualMargin":3.856205,"actualDRShare":99.926009,"signedError":-7.856205,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.856205,"individualPollMAE":7.856205,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.856205,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-7.856205,"selectedQuestionIds":["118219"],"selectedPollIds":["64244"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3926","race":"2006_House-G_PA-6","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-6","democrat":"Lois Murphy","republican":"Jim Gerlach","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":49.33979,"actualRep":50.66021,"actualMargin":-1.320421,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":6.320421,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.320421,"individualPollMAE":6.320421,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.320421,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":6.320421,"selectedQuestionIds":["118220"],"selectedPollIds":["64244"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":6.320421,"selectedQuestionIds":["118491"],"selectedPollIds":["64410"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3927","race":"2006_House-G_PA-7","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-7","democrat":"Joe Sestak","republican":"W. Curtis Weldon","pollDem":50.5,"pollRep":43.5,"pollMargin":7.0,"actualDem":56.356265,"actualRep":43.60182,"actualMargin":12.754445,"actualDRShare":99.958085,"signedError":-5.754445,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.754445,"individualPollMAE":5.754445,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.754445,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"30","pollster":"Benenson Strategy Group","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-5.754445,"selectedQuestionIds":["117554"],"selectedPollIds":["63851"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-5.754445,"selectedQuestionIds":["139060"],"selectedPollIds":["64244"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3928","race":"2006_House-G_PA-8","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-8","democrat":"Patrick J. Murphy","republican":"Michael G. Fitzpatrick","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":50.299219,"actualRep":49.691574,"actualMargin":0.607645,"actualDRShare":99.990793,"signedError":0.392355,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.392355,"individualPollMAE":4.130785,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.607645,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2006-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.392355,"selectedQuestionIds":["117879"],"selectedPollIds":["64055"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.607645,"selectedQuestionIds":["118060"],"selectedPollIds":["64158"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.392355,"selectedQuestionIds":["118221"],"selectedPollIds":["64244"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3930","race":"2006_House-G_PA-10","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-10","democrat":"Christopher P. Carney","republican":"Donald L. Sherwood","pollDem":48.5,"pollRep":40.5,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":52.895909,"actualRep":47.009939,"actualMargin":5.88597,"actualDRShare":99.905848,"signedError":2.11403,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.11403,"individualPollMAE":2.11403,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-24","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.88597,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"176","pollster":"Lycoming College Polling Institute","date":"2006-10-24","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":3.11403,"selectedQuestionIds":["117957"],"selectedPollIds":["64114"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":1.11403,"selectedQuestionIds":["139064"],"selectedPollIds":["64244"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3946","race":"2006_House-G_SC-5","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"SC-5","democrat":"John M. Spratt","republican":"Ralph Norman","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":19.0,"actualDem":56.903639,"actualRep":43.060393,"actualMargin":13.843247,"actualDRShare":99.964032,"signedError":5.156753,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.156753,"individualPollMAE":5.156753,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-30","2006-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.843247,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":5.156753,"selectedQuestionIds":["118298"],"selectedPollIds":["64312"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"399","race":"2018_House-G_MT-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MT-1","democrat":"Kathleen Williams","republican":"Greg Gianforte","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":46.247876,"actualRep":50.882299,"actualMargin":-4.634422,"actualDRShare":97.130175,"signedError":0.634422,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.634422,"individualPollMAE":4.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-4.634422,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-3.365578,"selectedQuestionIds":["91452"],"selectedPollIds":["56762"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":4.634422,"selectedQuestionIds":["90982"],"selectedPollIds":["56546"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3990","race":"2006_House-G_UT-1","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-1","democrat":"Steve Olsen","republican":"Rob Bishop","pollDem":26.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-32.0,"actualDem":32.454027,"actualRep":63.060166,"actualMargin":-30.606139,"actualDRShare":95.514193,"signedError":-1.393861,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.393861,"individualPollMAE":1.393861,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-31","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-30.606139,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":-1.393861,"selectedQuestionIds":["139080"],"selectedPollIds":["64131"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3991","race":"2006_House-G_UT-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-2","democrat":"Jim Matheson","republican":"LaVar Christensen","pollDem":62.0,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":33.0,"actualDem":58.999283,"actualRep":37.301721,"actualMargin":21.697562,"actualDRShare":96.301003,"signedError":11.302438,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.302438,"individualPollMAE":11.302438,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-31","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":21.697562,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":33.0,"signedError":11.302438,"selectedQuestionIds":["139081"],"selectedPollIds":["64131"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3992","race":"2006_House-G_UT-3","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-3","democrat":"Christian Burridge","republican":"Chris Cannon","pollDem":29.5,"pollRep":55.5,"pollMargin":-26.0,"actualDem":32.243437,"actualRep":57.712306,"actualMargin":-25.468869,"actualDRShare":89.955743,"signedError":-0.531131,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.531131,"individualPollMAE":3.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-30","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-25.468869,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2006-10-30","pollMargin":-29.0,"signedError":-3.531131,"selectedQuestionIds":["117815"],"selectedPollIds":["64013"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":2.468869,"selectedQuestionIds":["117990"],"selectedPollIds":["64131"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3995","race":"2006_House-G_VA-2","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-2","democrat":"Philip J. Kellam","republican":"Thelma D. Drake","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-1.5,"actualDem":48.453156,"actualRep":51.269065,"actualMargin":-2.815909,"actualDRShare":99.722221,"signedError":1.315909,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.315909,"individualPollMAE":6.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.815909,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":7.815909,"selectedQuestionIds":["118222"],"selectedPollIds":["64245"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2006-10-26","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-5.184091,"selectedQuestionIds":["118505"],"selectedPollIds":["64422"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"3998","race":"2006_House-G_VA-5","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-5","democrat":"Albert C. Weed","republican":"Virgil H. Goode","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":61.0,"pollMargin":-26.0,"actualDem":39.92946,"actualRep":59.114764,"actualMargin":-19.185304,"actualDRShare":99.044224,"signedError":-6.814696,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.814696,"individualPollMAE":6.814696,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-31","2006-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.185304,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-10-31","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":-6.814696,"selectedQuestionIds":["118301"],"selectedPollIds":["64314"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4","race":"2014_Sen-G_IL","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Richard J. Durbin","republican":"James D. Oberweis","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":53.548684,"actualRep":42.694988,"actualMargin":10.853696,"actualDRShare":96.243672,"signedError":-0.853696,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.853696,"individualPollMAE":0.853696,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-28","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.853696,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"202","pollster":"McKeon & Associates","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.853696,"selectedQuestionIds":["42272"],"selectedPollIds":["34512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.853696,"selectedQuestionIds":["125175"],"selectedPollIds":["34395"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"40","race":"2000_Pres-G_US","series":"presidential-national","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":44.333333,"pollRep":46.55,"pollMargin":-2.216667,"actualDem":48.384658,"actualRep":47.868653,"actualMargin":0.516004,"actualDRShare":96.253311,"signedError":-2.732671,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.732671,"individualPollMAE":3.005114,"n":18,"pollsters":18,"sourceQuestions":55,"selectedQuestions":19,"dateRange":["2000-10-25","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1732/FederalElections2000_PresidentialGeneralElectionResultsbyState.pdf","outcomeSourceName":"FEC official national presidential counts","archiveActualMargin":0.491814,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.02419,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["116952"],"selectedPollIds":["63530"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"810","pollster":"CBS News","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.483996,"selectedQuestionIds":["121987"],"selectedPollIds":["65892"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.483996,"selectedQuestionIds":["116961"],"selectedPollIds":["63535"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["7702"],"selectedPollIds":["6246"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["123232"],"selectedPollIds":["6125"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["117015"],"selectedPollIds":["63576"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["7593"],"selectedPollIds":["6140"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["7579"],"selectedPollIds":["6126"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["117037"],"selectedPollIds":["63594"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["116970"],"selectedPollIds":["28068"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"253","pollster":"Pew Research Center","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["123296"],"selectedPollIds":["28064"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"255","pollster":"Polling Company/Global Strategy Group","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["123250"],"selectedPollIds":["66230"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["117048"],"selectedPollIds":["63596"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["117284"],"selectedPollIds":["65853"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-9.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["117153"],"selectedPollIds":["63655"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"144","pollster":"TIPP Insights","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-1.9,"signedError":-2.416004,"selectedQuestionIds":["117030"],"selectedPollIds":["63588"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"390","pollster":"Yankelovich Partners Inc.","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-6.516004,"selectedQuestionIds":["117495"],"selectedPollIds":["28080"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.483996,"selectedQuestionIds":["117534","120632"],"selectedPollIds":["63831","65032"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"401","race":"2018_House-G_NC-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-2","democrat":"Linda Coleman","republican":"George Holding","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":45.817054,"actualRep":51.272219,"actualMargin":-5.455165,"actualDRShare":97.089272,"signedError":-3.544835,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.544835,"individualPollMAE":3.544835,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-26","2018-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-5.455165,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-3.544835,"selectedQuestionIds":["90972"],"selectedPollIds":["56542"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4012","race":"2006_House-G_WA-8","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WA-8","democrat":"Darcy Burner","republican":"David G. Reichert","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":48.539877,"actualRep":51.460123,"actualMargin":-2.920245,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":3.920245,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.920245,"individualPollMAE":3.920245,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.920245,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":4.920245,"selectedQuestionIds":["118223"],"selectedPollIds":["64246"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2006-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":2.920245,"selectedQuestionIds":["118314"],"selectedPollIds":["64326"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4024","race":"2006_House-G_WI-8","series":"house-district","year":2006,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2006,"electionDate":"2006-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WI-8","democrat":"Steven L. Kagen","republican":"John G. Gard","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":6.0,"actualDem":50.899743,"actualRep":48.761213,"actualMargin":2.13853,"actualDRShare":99.660956,"signedError":3.86147,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.86147,"individualPollMAE":3.86147,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2006-10-25","2006-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.13853,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"275","pollster":"RT Strategies","date":"2006-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.86147,"selectedQuestionIds":["118224"],"selectedPollIds":["64247"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4033","race":"2008_House-G_AK-1","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AK-1","democrat":"Ethan Berkowitz","republican":"Don Young","pollDem":49.3,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":6.3,"actualDem":44.97473,"actualRep":50.141966,"actualMargin":-5.167236,"actualDRShare":95.116696,"signedError":11.467236,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.467236,"individualPollMAE":11.467236,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-11-02","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.167236,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"136","pollster":"Hays Research Group","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":6.3,"signedError":11.467236,"selectedQuestionIds":["123396"],"selectedPollIds":["16413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4049","race":"2008_House-G_CA-4","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-4","democrat":"Charles Duane Brown","republican":"Tom McClintock","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":49.756612,"actualRep":50.243388,"actualMargin":-0.486776,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-8.513224,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.513224,"individualPollMAE":8.513224,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.486776,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"367","pollster":"SmithJohnson Opinion Research","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-8.513224,"selectedQuestionIds":["118234"],"selectedPollIds":["64256"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4119","race":"2008_House-G_FL-8","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-8","democrat":"Alan Grayson","republican":"Richard Keller","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":11.0,"actualDem":52.010567,"actualRep":47.989433,"actualMargin":4.021135,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":6.978865,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.978865,"individualPollMAE":6.978865,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.021135,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"30","pollster":"Benenson Strategy Group","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":6.978865,"selectedQuestionIds":["117559"],"selectedPollIds":["63856"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"412","race":"2018_House-G_NC-13","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-13","democrat":"Kathy Manning","republican":"Ted Budd","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":45.544783,"actualRep":51.540955,"actualMargin":-5.996172,"actualDRShare":97.085737,"signedError":5.996172,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.996172,"individualPollMAE":5.996172,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-5.996172,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.996172,"selectedQuestionIds":["91513"],"selectedPollIds":["56790"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"414","race":"2018_House-G_NE-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-1","democrat":"Jessica McClure","republican":"Jeff Fortenberry","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-16.0,"actualDem":39.640772,"actualRep":60.359228,"actualMargin":-20.718457,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":4.718457,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.718457,"individualPollMAE":4.718457,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-24","2018-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-20.718457,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-24","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":4.718457,"selectedQuestionIds":["90834"],"selectedPollIds":["56474"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4144","race":"2008_House-G_GA-8","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-8","democrat":"James Marshall","republican":"Richard N. Goddard","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":57.243699,"actualRep":42.756301,"actualMargin":14.487398,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-10.487398,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.487398,"individualPollMAE":10.487398,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":14.487398,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-10.487398,"selectedQuestionIds":["118329"],"selectedPollIds":["64340"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"415","race":"2018_House-G_NE-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-2","democrat":"Kara Eastman","republican":"Don Bacon","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":49.00497,"actualRep":50.99503,"actualMargin":-1.99006,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.00994,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.00994,"individualPollMAE":5.00994,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-24","2018-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-1.99006,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"69","pollster":"DFM Research","date":"2018-10-24","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-5.00994,"selectedQuestionIds":["90917"],"selectedPollIds":["56515"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"4152","race":"2008_House-G_ID-1","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ID-1","democrat":"Walt Minnick","republican":"William T. Sali","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":7.0,"actualDem":50.605751,"actualRep":49.394249,"actualMargin":1.211502,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.788498,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.788498,"individualPollMAE":5.788498,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.211502,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"134","pollster":"Harstad Strategic Research","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.788498,"selectedQuestionIds":["117943"],"selectedPollIds":["16719"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"4153","race":"2008_House-G_ID-2","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ID-2","democrat":"Deborah Holmes","republican":"Mike Simpson","pollDem":22.0,"pollRep":66.0,"pollMargin":-44.0,"actualDem":28.896843,"actualRep":70.892316,"actualMargin":-41.995473,"actualDRShare":99.78916,"signedError":-2.004527,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.004527,"individualPollMAE":2.004527,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-41.995473,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"134","pollster":"Harstad Strategic Research","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":-44.0,"signedError":-2.004527,"selectedQuestionIds":["117944"],"selectedPollIds":["16719"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"417","race":"2018_House-G_NH-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-1","democrat":"Chris Pappas","republican":"Eddie Edwards","pollDem":50.4,"pollRep":43.05,"pollMargin":7.35,"actualDem":53.561207,"actualRep":45.009775,"actualMargin":8.551431,"actualDRShare":98.570982,"signedError":-1.201431,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.201431,"individualPollMAE":5.65,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":8.551431,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":1.7,"signedError":-6.851431,"selectedQuestionIds":["91114"],"selectedPollIds":["56598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":4.448569,"selectedQuestionIds":["91453"],"selectedPollIds":["56759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4175","race":"2008_House-G_IN-3","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-3","democrat":"Michael A. Montagano","republican":"Mark Edward Souder","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":3.0,"actualDem":39.702134,"actualRep":55.038727,"actualMargin":-15.336593,"actualDRShare":94.740861,"signedError":18.336593,"absoluteAverageMiss":18.336593,"individualPollMAE":18.336593,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-23","2008-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.336593,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"142","pollster":"Howey Politics/DePauw University","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":18.336593,"selectedQuestionIds":["117946"],"selectedPollIds":["64103"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"418","race":"2018_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Ann McLane Kuster","republican":"Steven Negron","pollDem":54.2,"pollRep":37.35,"pollMargin":16.85,"actualDem":55.543519,"actualRep":42.183729,"actualMargin":13.35979,"actualDRShare":97.727248,"signedError":3.49021,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.49021,"individualPollMAE":4.15,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":13.35979,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":12.7,"signedError":-0.65979,"selectedQuestionIds":["91115"],"selectedPollIds":["56598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":7.64021,"selectedQuestionIds":["91454"],"selectedPollIds":["56759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4181","race":"2008_House-G_IN-9","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-9","democrat":"Baron P. Hill","republican":"Mike Sodrel","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":15.0,"actualDem":57.768862,"actualRep":38.409007,"actualMargin":19.359855,"actualDRShare":96.177869,"signedError":-4.359855,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.359855,"individualPollMAE":4.359855,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":19.359855,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-4.359855,"selectedQuestionIds":["118328"],"selectedPollIds":["64339"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4185","race":"2008_House-G_IA-4","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-4","democrat":"Becky Greenwald","republican":"Tom Latham","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-22.0,"actualDem":39.433188,"actualRep":60.566812,"actualMargin":-21.133623,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.866377,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.866377,"individualPollMAE":0.866377,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-21.133623,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-0.866377,"selectedQuestionIds":["118427"],"selectedPollIds":["64375"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4189","race":"2008_House-G_KS-3","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-3","democrat":"Dennis Moore","republican":"Nick Jordan","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":11.0,"actualDem":56.44043,"actualRep":39.655518,"actualMargin":16.784912,"actualDRShare":96.095949,"signedError":-5.784912,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.784912,"individualPollMAE":5.784912,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.784912,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-5.784912,"selectedQuestionIds":["118330"],"selectedPollIds":["64341"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4192","race":"2008_House-G_KY-2","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-2","democrat":"David E. Boswell","republican":"S. Brett Guthrie","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":47.427021,"actualRep":52.572979,"actualMargin":-5.145957,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.854043,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.854043,"individualPollMAE":4.854043,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-26","2008-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.145957,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-4.854043,"selectedQuestionIds":["118410"],"selectedPollIds":["64358"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4193","race":"2008_House-G_KY-3","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-3","democrat":"John Yarmuth","republican":"Anne Meagher Northup","pollDem":57.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":16.0,"actualDem":59.365408,"actualRep":40.634592,"actualMargin":18.730815,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.730815,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.730815,"individualPollMAE":2.730815,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":18.730815,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-2.730815,"selectedQuestionIds":["118326"],"selectedPollIds":["64337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4194","race":"2008_House-G_KY-4","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-4","democrat":"Michael Kelley","republican":"Geoff Davis","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-21.0,"actualDem":36.966255,"actualRep":63.033745,"actualMargin":-26.067491,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.067491,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.067491,"individualPollMAE":5.067491,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-26","2008-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-26.067491,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":5.067491,"selectedQuestionIds":["118408"],"selectedPollIds":["64358"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4202","race":"2008_House-G_LA-6","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"LA-6","democrat":"Donald J. Cazayoux","republican":"Bill Cassidy","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":40.294351,"actualRep":48.119174,"actualMargin":-7.824823,"actualDRShare":88.413526,"signedError":9.824823,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.824823,"individualPollMAE":9.824823,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.824823,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"203","pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":9.824823,"selectedQuestionIds":["118016"],"selectedPollIds":["64142"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"421","race":"2018_House-G_NJ-3","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-3","democrat":"Andy Kim","republican":"Tom MacArthur","pollDem":43.99,"pollRep":44.6,"pollMargin":-0.61,"actualDem":50.011568,"actualRep":48.716904,"actualMargin":1.294664,"actualDRShare":98.728473,"signedError":-1.904664,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.904664,"individualPollMAE":1.904664,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":1.294664,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":-0.61,"signedError":-1.904664,"selectedQuestionIds":["90665"],"selectedPollIds":["56403"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4232","race":"2008_House-G_MI-9","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MI-9","democrat":"Gary C. Peters","republican":"Joseph K. Knollenberg","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":52.082463,"actualRep":42.62806,"actualMargin":9.454403,"actualDRShare":94.710524,"signedError":0.545597,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.545597,"individualPollMAE":0.545597,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.454403,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":0.545597,"selectedQuestionIds":["117915"],"selectedPollIds":["64087"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"4241","race":"2008_House-G_MN-3","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-3","democrat":"Ashwin Madia","republican":"Erik Paulsen","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":40.852172,"actualRep":48.477394,"actualMargin":-7.625222,"actualDRShare":89.329566,"signedError":2.625222,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.625222,"individualPollMAE":2.625222,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-29","2008-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.625222,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.625222,"selectedQuestionIds":["118414"],"selectedPollIds":["64363"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4244","race":"2008_House-G_MN-6","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-6","democrat":"Elwyn Tinklenberg","republican":"Michele Bachmann","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":0.5,"actualDem":43.433442,"actualRep":46.406078,"actualMargin":-2.972636,"actualDRShare":89.839521,"signedError":3.472636,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.472636,"individualPollMAE":3.472636,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.972636,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.972636,"selectedQuestionIds":["118415"],"selectedPollIds":["64363"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"143","pollster":"University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":4.972636,"selectedQuestionIds":["118055"],"selectedPollIds":["64157"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"425","race":"2018_House-G_NJ-7","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-7","democrat":"Tom Malinowski","republican":"Leonard Lance","pollDem":46.695,"pollRep":42.745,"pollMargin":3.95,"actualDem":51.73947,"actualRep":46.719981,"actualMargin":5.019489,"actualDRShare":98.459451,"signedError":-1.069489,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.069489,"individualPollMAE":3.95,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.019489,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.019489,"selectedQuestionIds":["91118"],"selectedPollIds":["56599"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":7.9,"signedError":2.880511,"selectedQuestionIds":["91069"],"selectedPollIds":["56578"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4256","race":"2008_House-G_MO-6","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MO-6","democrat":"Kay Waldo Barnes","republican":"Sam Graves","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":36.859501,"actualRep":59.427455,"actualMargin":-22.567955,"actualDRShare":96.286956,"signedError":4.567955,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.567955,"individualPollMAE":4.567955,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-27","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-22.567955,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":4.567955,"selectedQuestionIds":["118411"],"selectedPollIds":["64360"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4260","race":"2008_House-G_MT-1","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MT-1","democrat":"John B. Driscoll","republican":"Denny Rehberg","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":60.0,"pollMargin":-25.0,"actualDem":32.424621,"actualRep":64.144313,"actualMargin":-31.719692,"actualDRShare":96.568933,"signedError":6.719692,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.719692,"individualPollMAE":6.719692,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-11-01","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-31.719692,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-25.0,"signedError":6.719692,"selectedQuestionIds":["118092"],"selectedPollIds":["16416"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4265","race":"2008_House-G_NV-2","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-2","democrat":"Jill Talbot Derby","republican":"Dean Heller","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-13.0,"actualDem":41.438456,"actualRep":51.824168,"actualMargin":-10.385713,"actualDRShare":93.262624,"signedError":-2.614287,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.614287,"individualPollMAE":2.614287,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-28","2008-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.385713,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-2.614287,"selectedQuestionIds":["117996"],"selectedPollIds":["16555"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4266","race":"2008_House-G_NV-3","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-3","democrat":"Dina Titus","republican":"Jon C. Porter","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":47.428905,"actualRep":42.291288,"actualMargin":5.137617,"actualDRShare":89.720193,"signedError":-5.137617,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.137617,"individualPollMAE":5.137617,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-28","2008-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.137617,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.137617,"selectedQuestionIds":["117997"],"selectedPollIds":["16555"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4267","race":"2008_House-G_NH-1","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-1","democrat":"Carol Shea-Porter","republican":"Jeb E. Bradley","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":51.759746,"actualRep":45.864002,"actualMargin":5.895744,"actualDRShare":97.623748,"signedError":-0.895744,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.895744,"individualPollMAE":0.895744,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-11-01","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.895744,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.895744,"selectedQuestionIds":["118446"],"selectedPollIds":["54158"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4268","race":"2008_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Paul W. Hodes","republican":"Jennifer M. Horn","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":56.441747,"actualRep":41.42414,"actualMargin":15.017607,"actualDRShare":97.865887,"signedError":5.982393,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.982393,"individualPollMAE":5.982393,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-11-01","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.017607,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":5.982393,"selectedQuestionIds":["118447"],"selectedPollIds":["54158"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4275","race":"2008_House-G_NJ-7","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-7","democrat":"Linda Stender","republican":"Leonard Lance","pollDem":31.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":42.221305,"actualRep":50.218856,"actualMargin":-7.997551,"actualDRShare":92.440161,"signedError":-1.002449,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.002449,"individualPollMAE":1.002449,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.997551,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"225","pollster":"National Research","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-1.002449,"selectedQuestionIds":["118061"],"selectedPollIds":["64159"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4282","race":"2008_House-G_NM-1","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-1","democrat":"Martin Heinrich","republican":"Darren White","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":55.654447,"actualRep":44.345553,"actualMargin":11.308894,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-7.308894,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.308894,"individualPollMAE":7.308894,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-29","2008-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.308894,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-7.308894,"selectedQuestionIds":["118112"],"selectedPollIds":["16512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4283","race":"2008_House-G_NM-2","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-2","democrat":"Harry Teague","republican":"Edward R. Tinsley","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":55.958057,"actualRep":44.041943,"actualMargin":11.916114,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-7.916114,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.916114,"individualPollMAE":7.916114,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-29","2008-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.916114,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-7.916114,"selectedQuestionIds":["118113"],"selectedPollIds":["16512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4284","race":"2008_House-G_NM-3","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-3","democrat":"Ben Ray Luján","republican":"Daniel K. East","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":23.0,"pollMargin":28.0,"actualDem":56.741411,"actualRep":30.471614,"actualMargin":26.269797,"actualDRShare":87.213025,"signedError":1.730203,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.730203,"individualPollMAE":1.730203,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-29","2008-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":26.269797,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":1.730203,"selectedQuestionIds":["118114"],"selectedPollIds":["16512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"431","race":"2018_House-G_NM-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-1","democrat":"Debra A. Haaland","republican":"Janice E. Arnold-Jones","pollDem":50.9,"pollRep":40.933333,"pollMargin":9.966667,"actualDem":59.132613,"actualRep":36.32456,"actualMargin":22.808053,"actualDRShare":95.457172,"signedError":-12.841386,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.841386,"individualPollMAE":12.841386,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":22.808053,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"450","pollster":"Carroll Strategies","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":7.9,"signedError":-14.908053,"selectedQuestionIds":["91222"],"selectedPollIds":["56642"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-12.808053,"selectedQuestionIds":["90908"],"selectedPollIds":["56508"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-10.808053,"selectedQuestionIds":["91396"],"selectedPollIds":["56732"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4310","race":"2008_House-G_NY-26","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-26","democrat":"Alice Kryzan","republican":"Christopher John Lee","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-14.0,"actualDem":33.910181,"actualRep":45.972634,"actualMargin":-12.062453,"actualDRShare":79.882816,"signedError":-1.937547,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.937547,"individualPollMAE":1.937547,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-28","2008-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.711509,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-7.350944,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-1.937547,"selectedQuestionIds":["118413"],"selectedPollIds":["64362"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"432","race":"2018_House-G_NM-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-2","democrat":"Xochitl Torres Small","republican":"Yvette Herrell","pollDem":44.733333,"pollRep":46.6,"pollMargin":-1.866667,"actualDem":50.933974,"actualRep":49.066026,"actualMargin":1.867949,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-3.734615,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.734615,"individualPollMAE":3.734615,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":1.867949,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"450","pollster":"Carroll Strategies","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-6.867949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91223"],"selectedPollIds":["56642"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":0.4,"signedError":-1.467949,"selectedQuestionIds":["90909"],"selectedPollIds":["56508"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-2.867949,"selectedQuestionIds":["91397"],"selectedPollIds":["56732"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4321","race":"2008_House-G_NC-8","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-8","democrat":"Lawrence Webb Kissell","republican":"Robert C. Hayes","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":55.382127,"actualRep":44.617873,"actualMargin":10.764255,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.764255,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.764255,"individualPollMAE":5.764255,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-26","2008-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.764255,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-5.764255,"selectedQuestionIds":["118091"],"selectedPollIds":["64182"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"433","race":"2018_House-G_NM-3","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-3","democrat":"Ben Ray Luján","republican":"Jerald Steve McFall","pollDem":55.75,"pollRep":34.95,"pollMargin":20.8,"actualDem":63.375025,"actualRep":31.208324,"actualMargin":32.166701,"actualDRShare":94.583349,"signedError":-11.366701,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.366701,"individualPollMAE":11.366701,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":32.166701,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"450","pollster":"Carroll Strategies","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":24.6,"signedError":-7.566701,"selectedQuestionIds":["91224"],"selectedPollIds":["56642"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":-15.166701,"selectedQuestionIds":["90910"],"selectedPollIds":["56508"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"434","race":"2018_House-G_NV-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-1","democrat":"Dina Titus","republican":"Joyce Bentley","pollDem":58.3,"pollRep":28.3,"pollMargin":30.0,"actualDem":66.167108,"actualRep":30.865763,"actualMargin":35.301345,"actualDRShare":97.032871,"signedError":-5.301345,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.301345,"individualPollMAE":5.301345,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":35.301345,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":-5.301345,"selectedQuestionIds":["91494"],"selectedPollIds":["56778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4342","race":"2008_House-G_OH-15","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-15","democrat":"Mary Jo Kilroy","republican":"Steve Stivers","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":7.5,"actualDem":45.940271,"actualRep":45.179339,"actualMargin":0.760932,"actualDRShare":91.11961,"signedError":6.739068,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.739068,"individualPollMAE":6.739068,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.760932,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"30","pollster":"Benenson Strategy Group","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":8.239068,"selectedQuestionIds":["138801"],"selectedPollIds":["73973"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.239068,"selectedQuestionIds":["118331"],"selectedPollIds":["64342"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"435","race":"2018_House-G_NV-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-2","democrat":"Clint Koble","republican":"Mark E. Amodei","pollDem":36.9,"pollRep":57.5,"pollMargin":-20.6,"actualDem":41.769233,"actualRep":58.230767,"actualMargin":-16.461534,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.138466,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.138466,"individualPollMAE":4.138466,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-16.461534,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-20.6,"signedError":-4.138466,"selectedQuestionIds":["91495"],"selectedPollIds":["56778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4355","race":"2008_House-G_OR-5","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OR-5","democrat":"Kurt Schrader","republican":"Mike Erickson","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":24.0,"actualDem":54.254887,"actualRep":38.334917,"actualMargin":15.91997,"actualDRShare":92.589804,"signedError":8.08003,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.08003,"individualPollMAE":8.08003,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-27","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.91997,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":8.08003,"selectedQuestionIds":["118412"],"selectedPollIds":["64361"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4358","race":"2008_House-G_PA-3","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-3","democrat":"Kathy Dahlkemper","republican":"Philip English","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":51.245668,"actualRep":48.754332,"actualMargin":2.491337,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.491337,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.491337,"individualPollMAE":4.491337,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.491337,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-4.491337,"selectedQuestionIds":["118087"],"selectedPollIds":["64180"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"436","race":"2018_House-G_NV-3","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-3","democrat":"Susie Lee","republican":"Danny Tarkanian","pollDem":50.6,"pollRep":41.4,"pollMargin":9.2,"actualDem":51.892944,"actualRep":42.830086,"actualMargin":9.062858,"actualDRShare":94.72303,"signedError":0.137142,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.137142,"individualPollMAE":0.137142,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":9.062858,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":9.2,"signedError":0.137142,"selectedQuestionIds":["91496"],"selectedPollIds":["56778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4365","race":"2008_House-G_PA-10","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-10","democrat":"Christopher P. Carney","republican":"Christopher Hackett","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":35.0,"pollMargin":15.0,"actualDem":56.33165,"actualRep":43.66835,"actualMargin":12.6633,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":2.3367,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.3367,"individualPollMAE":2.3367,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.6633,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"176","pollster":"Lycoming College Polling Institute","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":2.3367,"selectedQuestionIds":["117958"],"selectedPollIds":["64115"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4366","race":"2008_House-G_PA-11","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-11","democrat":"Paul E. Kanjorski","republican":"Lou Barletta","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":51.627341,"actualRep":48.372659,"actualMargin":3.254682,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-9.254682,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.254682,"individualPollMAE":9.254682,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-11-01","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.254682,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-9.254682,"selectedQuestionIds":["118416"],"selectedPollIds":["64364"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4367","race":"2008_House-G_PA-12","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-12","democrat":"John P. Murtha","republican":"William Russell","pollDem":45.75,"pollRep":42.35,"pollMargin":3.4,"actualDem":57.852065,"actualRep":42.147935,"actualMargin":15.70413,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-12.30413,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.30413,"individualPollMAE":12.30413,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.70413,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"71","pollster":"Dane & Associates","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":1.8,"signedError":-13.90413,"selectedQuestionIds":["117825"],"selectedPollIds":["64021"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-10.70413,"selectedQuestionIds":["118420"],"selectedPollIds":["64368"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"437","race":"2018_House-G_NV-4","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-4","democrat":"Steven A. Horsford","republican":"Cresent Hardy","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":44.2,"pollMargin":3.8,"actualDem":51.927891,"actualRep":43.747126,"actualMargin":8.180765,"actualDRShare":95.675017,"signedError":-4.380765,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.380765,"individualPollMAE":4.380765,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":8.180765,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":3.8,"signedError":-4.380765,"selectedQuestionIds":["91497"],"selectedPollIds":["56778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4377","race":"2008_House-G_SC-1","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"SC-1","democrat":"Linda Ketner","republican":"Henry E. Brown","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":47.889458,"actualRep":51.930654,"actualMargin":-4.041196,"actualDRShare":99.820112,"signedError":-0.958804,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.958804,"individualPollMAE":0.958804,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.041196,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-0.958804,"selectedQuestionIds":["118407"],"selectedPollIds":["64357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"438","race":"2018_House-G_NY-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-1","democrat":"Perry Gershon","republican":"Lee M. Zeldin","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":47.394771,"actualRep":51.481376,"actualMargin":-4.086605,"actualDRShare":98.876147,"signedError":-10.913395,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.913395,"individualPollMAE":10.913395,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":0.981659,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-5.068264,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-10.913395,"selectedQuestionIds":["90933"],"selectedPollIds":["56527"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4414","race":"2008_House-G_TX-22","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"TX-22","democrat":"Nicholas V. Lampson","republican":"Pete Olson","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-17.0,"actualDem":45.359957,"actualRep":52.426738,"actualMargin":-7.066781,"actualDRShare":97.786696,"signedError":-9.933219,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.933219,"individualPollMAE":9.933219,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.066781,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-9.933219,"selectedQuestionIds":["118509"],"selectedPollIds":["64426"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4425","race":"2008_House-G_UT-1","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-1","democrat":"Morgan E. Bowen","republican":"Rob Bishop","pollDem":28.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-29.0,"actualDem":30.473068,"actualRep":64.854916,"actualMargin":-34.381848,"actualDRShare":95.327984,"signedError":5.381848,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.381848,"individualPollMAE":5.381848,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-34.381848,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":1.381848,"selectedQuestionIds":["117816"],"selectedPollIds":["64014"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":-25.0,"signedError":9.381848,"selectedQuestionIds":["117993"],"selectedPollIds":["16680"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4426","race":"2008_House-G_UT-2","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-2","democrat":"Jim Matheson","republican":"Bill Dew","pollDem":61.0,"pollRep":28.0,"pollMargin":33.0,"actualDem":63.350606,"actualRep":34.474413,"actualMargin":28.876193,"actualDRShare":97.82502,"signedError":4.123807,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.123807,"individualPollMAE":6.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":28.876193,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":39.0,"signedError":10.123807,"selectedQuestionIds":["117817"],"selectedPollIds":["64014"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":27.0,"signedError":-1.876193,"selectedQuestionIds":["117994"],"selectedPollIds":["16680"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4427","race":"2008_House-G_UT-3","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-3","democrat":"Bennion L. Spencer","republican":"Jason Chaffetz","pollDem":23.0,"pollRep":57.5,"pollMargin":-34.5,"actualDem":28.282977,"actualRep":65.610431,"actualMargin":-37.327454,"actualDRShare":93.893408,"signedError":2.827454,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.827454,"individualPollMAE":2.827454,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-37.327454,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-34.0,"signedError":3.327454,"selectedQuestionIds":["117821"],"selectedPollIds":["64014"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":-35.0,"signedError":2.327454,"selectedQuestionIds":["117995"],"selectedPollIds":["16680"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4433","race":"2008_House-G_VA-5","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-5","democrat":"Tom S. Perriello","republican":"Virgil H. Goode","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":50.085784,"actualRep":49.856501,"actualMargin":0.229283,"actualDRShare":99.942285,"signedError":-3.229283,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.229283,"individualPollMAE":3.229283,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-11-01","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.229283,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.229283,"selectedQuestionIds":["118417"],"selectedPollIds":["64365"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4443","race":"2008_House-G_WA-4","series":"house-district","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"WA-4","democrat":"George B. Fearing","republican":"Doc Hastings","pollDem":47.5,"pollRep":52.5,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":36.912054,"actualRep":63.087946,"actualMargin":-26.175892,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":21.175892,"absoluteAverageMiss":21.175892,"individualPollMAE":21.175892,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-26","2008-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-26.175892,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"656","pollster":"Bainbridge Media Group","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":21.175892,"selectedQuestionIds":["138813"],"selectedPollIds":["73985"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"448","race":"2018_House-G_NY-11","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-11","democrat":"Max N. Rose","republican":"Dan Donovan","pollDem":40.49,"pollRep":43.8,"pollMargin":-3.31,"actualDem":52.985071,"actualRep":46.541918,"actualMargin":6.443153,"actualDRShare":99.526989,"signedError":-9.753153,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.753153,"individualPollMAE":9.753153,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":8.539181,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-2.096028,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-3.31,"signedError":-9.753153,"selectedQuestionIds":["90836"],"selectedPollIds":["56476"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4495","race":"2010_House-G_CA-15","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-15","democrat":"Michael M. Honda","republican":"Scott Kirkland","pollDem":47.7,"pollRep":36.3,"pollMargin":11.4,"actualDem":67.59746,"actualRep":32.40254,"actualMargin":35.19492,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-23.79492,"absoluteAverageMiss":23.79492,"individualPollMAE":23.79492,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":35.19492,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"654","pollster":"GOP Calls","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":11.4,"signedError":-23.79492,"selectedQuestionIds":["138656"],"selectedPollIds":["73902"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4500","race":"2010_House-G_CA-20","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-20","democrat":"Jim Costa","republican":"Andy Vidak","pollDem":44.5,"pollRep":46.5,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":51.704977,"actualRep":48.295023,"actualMargin":3.409955,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.409955,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.409955,"individualPollMAE":8.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.409955,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"232","pollster":"Normington, Petts & Associates","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":2.590045,"selectedQuestionIds":["81718"],"selectedPollIds":["51684"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-13.409955,"selectedQuestionIds":["81717"],"selectedPollIds":["51683"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4541","race":"2010_House-G_CT-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-1","democrat":"John B. Larson","republican":"Ann Brickley","pollDem":56.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":18.0,"actualDem":61.246339,"actualRep":37.195516,"actualMargin":24.050823,"actualDRShare":98.441855,"signedError":-6.050823,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.050823,"individualPollMAE":6.050823,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":20.554951,"outcomeMarginCorrection":3.495872,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-6.050823,"selectedQuestionIds":["81735"],"selectedPollIds":["32714"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4543","race":"2010_House-G_CT-3","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-3","democrat":"Rosa L. DeLauro","republican":"Gerald Labriola","pollDem":56.0,"pollRep":37.9,"pollMargin":18.1,"actualDem":65.061338,"actualRep":33.584095,"actualMargin":31.477243,"actualDRShare":98.645433,"signedError":-13.377243,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.377243,"individualPollMAE":13.377243,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":27.389072,"outcomeMarginCorrection":4.088171,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":18.1,"signedError":-13.377243,"selectedQuestionIds":["81739"],"selectedPollIds":["32714"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4544","race":"2010_House-G_CT-4","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-4","democrat":"Jim Himes","republican":"Dan Debicella","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":53.061534,"actualRep":46.933866,"actualMargin":6.127669,"actualDRShare":99.9954,"signedError":-8.127669,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.127669,"individualPollMAE":8.127669,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.009366,"outcomeMarginCorrection":2.118303,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-8.127669,"selectedQuestionIds":["81741"],"selectedPollIds":["32714"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4545","race":"2010_House-G_CT-5","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-5","democrat":"Christopher Murphy","republican":"Sam S.F. Caligiuri","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":54.059559,"actualRep":45.930762,"actualMargin":8.128797,"actualDRShare":99.990321,"signedError":-16.128797,"absoluteAverageMiss":16.128797,"individualPollMAE":16.128797,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-30","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.100214,"outcomeMarginCorrection":1.028583,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-16.128797,"selectedQuestionIds":["81747"],"selectedPollIds":["51705"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4546","race":"2010_House-G_DE-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"DE-1","democrat":"John C. Carney Jr.","republican":"Glen Urquhart","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":56.780942,"actualRep":41.04294,"actualMargin":15.738002,"actualDRShare":97.823882,"signedError":-3.738002,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.738002,"individualPollMAE":5.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.738002,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":1.261998,"selectedQuestionIds":["81754"],"selectedPollIds":["32711"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-8.738002,"selectedQuestionIds":["81753"],"selectedPollIds":["51709"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4554","race":"2010_House-G_FL-8","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-8","democrat":"Alan Grayson","republican":"Daniel Webster","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":38.215343,"actualRep":56.11322,"actualMargin":-17.897877,"actualDRShare":94.328563,"signedError":10.897877,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.897877,"individualPollMAE":10.897877,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.897877,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":10.897877,"selectedQuestionIds":["81767"],"selectedPollIds":["51719"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"456","race":"2018_House-G_NY-19","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-19","democrat":"Antonio Delgado","republican":"John J. Faso","pollDem":45.093333,"pollRep":43.866667,"pollMargin":1.226667,"actualDem":51.347288,"actualRep":46.138701,"actualMargin":5.208587,"actualDRShare":97.485989,"signedError":-3.98192,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.98192,"individualPollMAE":3.98192,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-26","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":8.083032,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-2.874445,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.208587,"selectedQuestionIds":["90969"],"selectedPollIds":["56540"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.208587,"selectedQuestionIds":["91172"],"selectedPollIds":["56621"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":1.68,"signedError":-3.528587,"selectedQuestionIds":["91309"],"selectedPollIds":["56693"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4571","race":"2010_House-G_FL-25","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-25","democrat":"Joe Garcia","republican":"David Rivera","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":42.589148,"actualRep":52.147291,"actualMargin":-9.558142,"actualDRShare":94.736439,"signedError":8.558142,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.558142,"individualPollMAE":8.558142,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.558142,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":8.558142,"selectedQuestionIds":["81778"],"selectedPollIds":["51730"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4573","race":"2010_House-G_GA-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-2","democrat":"Sanford Bishop","republican":"Mike Keown","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":51.440904,"actualRep":48.559096,"actualMargin":2.881808,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-6.881808,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.881808,"individualPollMAE":6.881808,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-28","2010-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.881808,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-6.881808,"selectedQuestionIds":["81781"],"selectedPollIds":["51733"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4579","race":"2010_House-G_GA-8","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-8","democrat":"James Marshall","republican":"Austin Scott","pollDem":38.05,"pollRep":51.25,"pollMargin":-13.2,"actualDem":47.302841,"actualRep":52.697159,"actualMargin":-5.394319,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-7.805681,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.805681,"individualPollMAE":7.805681,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.394319,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-13.4,"signedError":-8.005681,"selectedQuestionIds":["81787"],"selectedPollIds":["51738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"250","pollster":"PSB Research","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-7.605681,"selectedQuestionIds":["81788"],"selectedPollIds":["51739"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4585","race":"2010_House-G_HI-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"HI-1","democrat":"Colleen W. Hanabusa","republican":"Charles K. Djou","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":53.227639,"actualRep":46.772361,"actualMargin":6.455279,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-1.455279,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.455279,"individualPollMAE":1.455279,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.455279,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-1.455279,"selectedQuestionIds":["81794"],"selectedPollIds":["51744"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4586","race":"2010_House-G_HI-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"HI-2","democrat":"Mazie Hirono","republican":"John W. Willoughby","pollDem":58.6,"pollRep":35.1,"pollMargin":23.5,"actualDem":72.187844,"actualRep":25.321678,"actualMargin":46.866167,"actualDRShare":97.509522,"signedError":-23.366167,"absoluteAverageMiss":23.366167,"individualPollMAE":23.366167,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":46.866167,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":23.5,"signedError":-23.366167,"selectedQuestionIds":["138665"],"selectedPollIds":["51744"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4587","race":"2010_House-G_ID-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"ID-1","democrat":"Walt Minnick","republican":"Raúl R. Labrador","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":39.5,"pollMargin":6.5,"actualDem":41.278842,"actualRep":51.017472,"actualMargin":-9.73863,"actualDRShare":92.296314,"signedError":16.23863,"absoluteAverageMiss":16.23863,"individualPollMAE":16.23863,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.73863,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"128","pollster":"Greg Smith & Associates","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":19.73863,"selectedQuestionIds":["81813"],"selectedPollIds":["51759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":12.73863,"selectedQuestionIds":["81814"],"selectedPollIds":["32661"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4588","race":"2010_House-G_ID-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"ID-2","democrat":"Mike Crawford","republican":"Mike Simpson","pollDem":17.0,"pollRep":67.0,"pollMargin":-50.0,"actualDem":24.409039,"actualRep":68.831396,"actualMargin":-44.422358,"actualDRShare":93.240435,"signedError":-5.577642,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.577642,"individualPollMAE":5.577642,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-44.422358,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":-50.0,"signedError":-5.577642,"selectedQuestionIds":["81821"],"selectedPollIds":["32661"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"459","race":"2018_House-G_NY-22","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-22","democrat":"Anthony J. Brindisi","republican":"Claudia Tenney","pollDem":44.95,"pollRep":45.88,"pollMargin":-0.93,"actualDem":50.83953,"actualRep":49.058962,"actualMargin":1.780568,"actualDRShare":99.898492,"signedError":-2.710568,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.710568,"individualPollMAE":2.710568,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":2.33906,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.558492,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-0.93,"signedError":-2.710568,"selectedQuestionIds":["91311"],"selectedPollIds":["56693"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4596","race":"2010_House-G_IL-8","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-8","democrat":"Melissa Bean","republican":"Joe Walsh","pollDem":45.7,"pollRep":48.7,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":48.324153,"actualRep":48.467409,"actualMargin":-0.143256,"actualDRShare":96.791563,"signedError":-2.856744,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.856744,"individualPollMAE":2.856744,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-31","2010-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.143256,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2010-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-2.856744,"selectedQuestionIds":["81823"],"selectedPollIds":["51764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4598","race":"2010_House-G_IL-10","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-10","democrat":"Daniel J. Seals","republican":"Robert Dold","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":48.919306,"actualRep":51.08023,"actualMargin":-2.160924,"actualDRShare":99.999535,"signedError":-5.839076,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.839076,"individualPollMAE":5.839076,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-31","2010-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.160924,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2010-10-31","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-5.839076,"selectedQuestionIds":["81827"],"selectedPollIds":["51764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4599","race":"2010_House-G_IL-11","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-11","democrat":"Deborah Halvorson","republican":"Adam Kinzinger","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":42.651037,"actualRep":57.348963,"actualMargin":-14.697926,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":4.697926,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.697926,"individualPollMAE":4.697926,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-31","2010-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.697926,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2010-10-31","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":4.697926,"selectedQuestionIds":["81834"],"selectedPollIds":["51764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"460","race":"2018_House-G_NY-23","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-23","democrat":"Tracy Mitrano","republican":"Thomas Reed","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":45.733732,"actualRep":54.216762,"actualMargin":-8.483031,"actualDRShare":99.950494,"signedError":6.483031,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.483031,"individualPollMAE":6.483031,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-23","2018-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-5.744382,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-2.738649,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-23","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":6.483031,"selectedQuestionIds":["90835"],"selectedPollIds":["56475"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"4602","race":"2010_House-G_IL-14","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-14","democrat":"Bill Foster","republican":"Randy Hultgren","pollDem":45.3,"pollRep":50.3,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":45.040705,"actualRep":51.307,"actualMargin":-6.266295,"actualDRShare":96.347705,"signedError":1.266295,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.266295,"individualPollMAE":1.266295,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-31","2010-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-6.266295,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2010-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":1.266295,"selectedQuestionIds":["81845"],"selectedPollIds":["51764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4605","race":"2010_House-G_IL-17","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-17","democrat":"Philip G. Hare","republican":"Robert Schilling","pollDem":43.7,"pollRep":51.7,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":42.96373,"actualRep":52.581223,"actualMargin":-9.617492,"actualDRShare":95.544953,"signedError":1.617492,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.617492,"individualPollMAE":1.617492,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-31","2010-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.617492,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2010-10-31","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":1.617492,"selectedQuestionIds":["81852"],"selectedPollIds":["51764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4609","race":"2010_House-G_IN-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-2","democrat":"Joe Donnelly","republican":"Jackie Walorski","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":48.17792,"actualRep":46.839249,"actualMargin":1.338671,"actualDRShare":95.017169,"signedError":3.661329,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.661329,"individualPollMAE":3.661329,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.338671,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.661329,"selectedQuestionIds":["81860"],"selectedPollIds":["32640"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4610","race":"2010_House-G_IN-3","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-3","democrat":"Thomas E. Hayhurst","republican":"Marlin A. Stutzman","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":46.5,"pollMargin":-10.5,"actualDem":33.108528,"actualRep":62.761755,"actualMargin":-29.653227,"actualDRShare":95.870283,"signedError":19.153227,"absoluteAverageMiss":19.153227,"individualPollMAE":19.153227,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-29.653227,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"289","pollster":"Riggs Research Services","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":33.653227,"selectedQuestionIds":["81864"],"selectedPollIds":["51793"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-25.0,"signedError":4.653227,"selectedQuestionIds":["81865"],"selectedPollIds":["32681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4614","race":"2010_House-G_IN-7","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-7","democrat":"André D. Carson","republican":"Marvin Bailey Scott","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":13.0,"actualDem":58.895911,"actualRep":37.807024,"actualMargin":21.088887,"actualDRShare":96.702936,"signedError":-8.088887,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.088887,"individualPollMAE":8.088887,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":21.088887,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-8.088887,"selectedQuestionIds":["81867"],"selectedPollIds":["32640"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4619","race":"2010_House-G_IA-3","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-3","democrat":"Leonard L. Boswell","republican":"Brad Zaun","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":50.734769,"actualRep":46.488976,"actualMargin":4.245792,"actualDRShare":97.223745,"signedError":7.754208,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.754208,"individualPollMAE":7.754208,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.245792,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"250","pollster":"PSB Research","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":7.754208,"selectedQuestionIds":["81806"],"selectedPollIds":["51753"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4625","race":"2010_House-G_KS-4","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-4","democrat":"Raj Goyle","republican":"Mike Pompeo","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-16.0,"actualDem":36.454866,"actualRep":58.793016,"actualMargin":-22.33815,"actualDRShare":95.247882,"signedError":6.33815,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.33815,"individualPollMAE":6.33815,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-27","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-22.33815,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":6.33815,"selectedQuestionIds":["81877"],"selectedPollIds":["51802"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4628","race":"2010_House-G_KY-3","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-3","democrat":"John Yarmuth","republican":"Todd Lally","pollDem":45.5,"pollRep":41.5,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":54.679014,"actualRep":44.006955,"actualMargin":10.672059,"actualDRShare":98.685969,"signedError":-6.672059,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.672059,"individualPollMAE":6.672059,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.672059,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"291","pollster":"Rivercity Polling","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.672059,"selectedQuestionIds":["81885"],"selectedPollIds":["51810"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.672059,"selectedQuestionIds":["81884"],"selectedPollIds":["51809"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4639","race":"2010_House-G_ME-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-1","democrat":"Chellie M. Pingree","republican":"C. Peter Scontras","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":56.815059,"actualRep":43.170831,"actualMargin":13.644228,"actualDRShare":99.98589,"signedError":-17.644228,"absoluteAverageMiss":17.644228,"individualPollMAE":17.644228,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-27","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.644228,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"64","pollster":"Digital Research","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-17.644228,"selectedQuestionIds":["81921"],"selectedPollIds":["51844"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"464","race":"2018_House-G_NY-27","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-27","democrat":"Nate McMurray","republican":"Chris Collins","pollDem":41.65,"pollRep":44.193333,"pollMargin":-2.543333,"actualDem":48.741325,"actualRep":49.122327,"actualMargin":-0.381002,"actualDRShare":97.863652,"signedError":-2.162331,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.162331,"individualPollMAE":5.082999,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-26","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":4.788293,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-5.169295,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"81","pollster":"Dixie Strategies","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-7.24,"signedError":-6.858998,"selectedQuestionIds":["91246"],"selectedPollIds":["56627"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":-4.39,"signedError":-4.008998,"selectedQuestionIds":["90868"],"selectedPollIds":["56491"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"340","pollster":"Tulchin Research","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.381002,"selectedQuestionIds":["90918"],"selectedPollIds":["56516"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"4640","race":"2010_House-G_ME-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-2","democrat":"Michael H. Michaud","republican":"Jason J. Levesque","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":55.131584,"actualRep":44.868416,"actualMargin":10.263169,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-6.263169,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.263169,"individualPollMAE":6.263169,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-27","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.263169,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"64","pollster":"Digital Research","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.263169,"selectedQuestionIds":["81929"],"selectedPollIds":["51844"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"465","race":"2018_House-G_OH-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-1","democrat":"Aftab Pureval","republican":"Steve Chabot","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":46.903158,"actualRep":51.320666,"actualMargin":-4.417508,"actualDRShare":98.223823,"signedError":1.417508,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.417508,"individualPollMAE":1.417508,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-4.417508,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":1.417508,"selectedQuestionIds":["91575"],"selectedPollIds":["56820"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"4658","race":"2010_House-G_MA-10","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MA-10","democrat":"Bill Keating","republican":"Jeffrey Davis Perry","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":46.873025,"actualRep":42.38357,"actualMargin":4.489454,"actualDRShare":89.256595,"signedError":-0.489454,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.489454,"individualPollMAE":0.489454,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.489454,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-0.489454,"selectedQuestionIds":["81910"],"selectedPollIds":["53025"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"466","race":"2018_House-G_OH-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-2","democrat":"Jill Schiller","republican":"Brad Wenstrup","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-13.0,"actualDem":41.197469,"actualRep":57.554866,"actualMargin":-16.357397,"actualDRShare":98.752335,"signedError":3.357397,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.357397,"individualPollMAE":3.357397,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-16.357397,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":3.357397,"selectedQuestionIds":["90936"],"selectedPollIds":["56530"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4661","race":"2010_House-G_MI-3","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MI-3","democrat":"Patrick A. Miles","republican":"Justin Amash","pollDem":30.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":37.46848,"actualRep":59.676966,"actualMargin":-22.208486,"actualDRShare":97.145446,"signedError":3.208486,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.208486,"individualPollMAE":3.208486,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-22.208486,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":3.208486,"selectedQuestionIds":["81942"],"selectedPollIds":["51858"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4665","race":"2010_House-G_MI-7","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MI-7","democrat":"Mark Schauer","republican":"Tim Walberg","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":45.377079,"actualRep":50.155316,"actualMargin":-4.778237,"actualDRShare":95.532395,"signedError":1.778237,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.778237,"individualPollMAE":10.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.778237,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"193","pollster":"Marketing Resource Group (MRG)","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":11.778237,"selectedQuestionIds":["81945"],"selectedPollIds":["51860"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"225","pollster":"National Research","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-8.221763,"selectedQuestionIds":["81946"],"selectedPollIds":["51861"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4667","race":"2010_House-G_MI-9","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MI-9","democrat":"Gary C. Peters","republican":"Andrew Rocky Raczkowski","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":49.764496,"actualRep":47.229369,"actualMargin":2.535128,"actualDRShare":96.993865,"signedError":-7.535128,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.535128,"individualPollMAE":7.535128,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-27","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.535128,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"125","pollster":"Great Lakes Strategies Group","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-7.535128,"selectedQuestionIds":["81955"],"selectedPollIds":["51869"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4674","race":"2010_House-G_MN-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-1","democrat":"Tim Walz","republican":"Randy Demmer","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":9.0,"actualDem":49.339731,"actualRep":44.048305,"actualMargin":5.291426,"actualDRShare":93.388037,"signedError":3.708574,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.708574,"individualPollMAE":3.708574,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.291426,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":3.708574,"selectedQuestionIds":["81961"],"selectedPollIds":["51873"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"468","race":"2018_House-G_OH-4","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-4","democrat":"Janet Garrett","republican":"Jim Jordan","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":60.0,"pollMargin":-24.0,"actualDem":34.735922,"actualRep":65.264078,"actualMargin":-30.528156,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":6.528156,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.528156,"individualPollMAE":6.528156,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-30.528156,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":6.528156,"selectedQuestionIds":["91574"],"selectedPollIds":["56818"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4681","race":"2010_House-G_MN-8","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-8","democrat":"James L. Oberstar","republican":"Chip Cravaack","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":46.589625,"actualRep":48.177248,"actualMargin":-1.587622,"actualDRShare":94.766873,"signedError":2.587622,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.587622,"individualPollMAE":2.587622,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-27","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.587622,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.587622,"selectedQuestionIds":["81969"],"selectedPollIds":["51881"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4683","race":"2010_House-G_MS-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MS-2","democrat":"Bennie G. Thompson","republican":"William Marcy","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":61.466771,"actualRep":37.640351,"actualMargin":23.82642,"actualDRShare":99.107122,"signedError":-22.82642,"absoluteAverageMiss":22.82642,"individualPollMAE":22.82642,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":23.82642,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"156","pollster":"JMC Analytics","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-22.82642,"selectedQuestionIds":["81986"],"selectedPollIds":["51893"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4689","race":"2010_House-G_MO-4","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MO-4","democrat":"Ike Skelton","republican":"Vicky Hartzler","pollDem":45.7,"pollRep":38.8,"pollMargin":6.9,"actualDem":45.114105,"actualRep":50.427005,"actualMargin":-5.3129,"actualDRShare":95.54111,"signedError":12.2129,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.2129,"individualPollMAE":12.2129,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.3129,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"212","pollster":"Missouri State University Center for Social Science and Public Policy Research","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":6.9,"signedError":12.2129,"selectedQuestionIds":["81973"],"selectedPollIds":["32717"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4692","race":"2010_House-G_MO-7","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MO-7","democrat":"Scott Eckersley","republican":"Billy Long","pollDem":22.8,"pollRep":56.2,"pollMargin":-33.4,"actualDem":30.36672,"actualRep":63.39494,"actualMargin":-33.02822,"actualDRShare":93.761661,"signedError":-0.37178,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.37178,"individualPollMAE":0.37178,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-33.02822,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"212","pollster":"Missouri State University Center for Social Science and Public Policy Research","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-33.4,"signedError":-0.37178,"selectedQuestionIds":["81977"],"selectedPollIds":["32717"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4697","race":"2010_House-G_NE-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-2","democrat":"Tom White","republican":"Lee Terry","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-8.0,"actualDem":39.193655,"actualRep":60.806345,"actualMargin":-21.61269,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":13.61269,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.61269,"individualPollMAE":13.61269,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-21.61269,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"382","pollster":"Wiese Research Associates","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":13.61269,"selectedQuestionIds":["82020"],"selectedPollIds":["51921"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4701","race":"2010_House-G_NV-3","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-3","democrat":"Dina Titus","republican":"Joseph J. Heck","pollDem":37.5,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-9.5,"actualDem":47.473066,"actualRep":48.125611,"actualMargin":-0.652546,"actualDRShare":95.598677,"signedError":-8.847454,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.847454,"individualPollMAE":8.847454,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.652546,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-9.347454,"selectedQuestionIds":["82082"],"selectedPollIds":["32723"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-8.347454,"selectedQuestionIds":["117795"],"selectedPollIds":["32863"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4702","race":"2010_House-G_NH-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-1","democrat":"Carol Shea-Porter","republican":"Frank C. Guinta","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":-6.5,"actualDem":42.422398,"actualRep":54.039107,"actualMargin":-11.616709,"actualDRShare":96.461506,"signedError":5.116709,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.116709,"individualPollMAE":5.116709,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.616709,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":4.616709,"selectedQuestionIds":["82021"],"selectedPollIds":["32837"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":5.616709,"selectedQuestionIds":["117796"],"selectedPollIds":["32864"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4703","race":"2010_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Ann McLane Kuster","republican":"Charles Bass","pollDem":38.5,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":-3.5,"actualDem":46.763374,"actualRep":48.343519,"actualMargin":-1.580144,"actualDRShare":95.106893,"signedError":-1.919856,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.919856,"individualPollMAE":6.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-21","2010-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.580144,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.580144,"selectedQuestionIds":["82031"],"selectedPollIds":["32837"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-8.419856,"selectedQuestionIds":["117797"],"selectedPollIds":["32864"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4704","race":"2010_House-G_NJ-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-1","democrat":"Robert E. Andrews","republican":"Dale Mark Glading","pollDem":63.0,"pollRep":22.0,"pollMargin":41.0,"actualDem":63.193615,"actualRep":34.803021,"actualMargin":28.390594,"actualDRShare":97.996636,"signedError":12.609406,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.609406,"individualPollMAE":12.609406,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":28.390594,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":41.0,"signedError":12.609406,"selectedQuestionIds":["82039"],"selectedPollIds":["51931"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4705","race":"2010_House-G_NJ-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-2","democrat":"Gary S. Stein","republican":"Frank A. LoBiondo","pollDem":20.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-37.0,"actualDem":30.929871,"actualRep":65.497846,"actualMargin":-34.567975,"actualDRShare":96.427717,"signedError":-2.432025,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.432025,"individualPollMAE":2.432025,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-34.567975,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-37.0,"signedError":-2.432025,"selectedQuestionIds":["82041"],"selectedPollIds":["51931"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4709","race":"2010_House-G_NJ-6","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-6","democrat":"Frank Pallone Jr.","republican":"Anna C. Little","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":7.0,"actualDem":54.74536,"actualRep":43.707153,"actualMargin":11.038206,"actualDRShare":98.452513,"signedError":-4.038206,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.038206,"individualPollMAE":4.038206,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.038206,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-4.038206,"selectedQuestionIds":["82053"],"selectedPollIds":["51933"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"471","race":"2018_House-G_OH-7","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-7","democrat":"Ken Harbaugh","republican":"Bob Gibbs","pollDem":39.67,"pollRep":51.795,"pollMargin":-12.125,"actualDem":41.256383,"actualRep":58.743617,"actualMargin":-17.487234,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.362234,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.362234,"individualPollMAE":6.125,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-17.487234,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":11.487234,"selectedQuestionIds":["90987"],"selectedPollIds":["56551"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"245","pollster":"Øptimus Analytics","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":-18.25,"signedError":-0.762766,"selectedQuestionIds":["91425"],"selectedPollIds":["56746"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4715","race":"2010_House-G_NJ-12","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-12","democrat":"Rush Holt","republican":"Scott M. Sipprelle","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":53.045558,"actualRep":45.89857,"actualMargin":7.146989,"actualDRShare":98.944128,"signedError":0.853011,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.853011,"individualPollMAE":0.853011,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-26","2010-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.146989,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.853011,"selectedQuestionIds":["82058"],"selectedPollIds":["51943"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4717","race":"2010_House-G_NM-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-1","democrat":"Martin Heinrich","republican":"Jonathan L. Barela","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-2.5,"actualDem":51.802521,"actualRep":48.197479,"actualMargin":3.605041,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-6.105041,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.105041,"individualPollMAE":6.105041,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.605041,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-5.605041,"selectedQuestionIds":["82061"],"selectedPollIds":["51946"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-6.605041,"selectedQuestionIds":["82060"],"selectedPollIds":["51945"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4718","race":"2010_House-G_NM-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-2","democrat":"Harry Teague","republican":"Stevan Pearce","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":44.596816,"actualRep":55.403184,"actualMargin":-10.806369,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":4.806369,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.806369,"individualPollMAE":4.806369,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.806369,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":7.806369,"selectedQuestionIds":["82070"],"selectedPollIds":["51945"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":1.806369,"selectedQuestionIds":["82071"],"selectedPollIds":["51955"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4739","race":"2010_House-G_NY-20","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-20","democrat":"Scott Murphy","republican":"Christopher P. Gibson","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":43.745506,"actualRep":53.18424,"actualMargin":-9.438734,"actualDRShare":96.929746,"signedError":0.438734,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.438734,"individualPollMAE":0.438734,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.52716,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-7.911573,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":0.438734,"selectedQuestionIds":["82104"],"selectedPollIds":["51978"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4741","race":"2010_House-G_NY-22","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-22","democrat":"Maurice D. Hinchey","republican":"George K. Phillips","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":38.5,"pollMargin":8.5,"actualDem":51.025042,"actualRep":45.866734,"actualMargin":5.158307,"actualDRShare":96.891776,"signedError":3.341693,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.341693,"individualPollMAE":8.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.948303,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-6.789996,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"6","pollster":"Abacus Associates","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":11.841693,"selectedQuestionIds":["82110"],"selectedPollIds":["51984"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"179","pollster":"Magellan Strategies","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.158307,"selectedQuestionIds":["82111"],"selectedPollIds":["51985"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4742","race":"2010_House-G_NY-23","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-23","democrat":"William L. Owens","republican":"Matthew A. Doheny","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":3.0,"actualDem":45.056161,"actualRep":43.963071,"actualMargin":1.093091,"actualDRShare":89.019232,"signedError":1.906909,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.906909,"individualPollMAE":1.906909,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.7044,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-3.611309,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":1.906909,"selectedQuestionIds":["82112"],"selectedPollIds":["51971"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4743","race":"2010_House-G_NY-24","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-24","democrat":"Michael A. Arcuri","republican":"Richard L. Hanna","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":45.254544,"actualRep":51.195497,"actualMargin":-5.940953,"actualDRShare":96.450041,"signedError":10.940953,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.940953,"individualPollMAE":10.940953,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.069508,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-8.010461,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":10.940953,"selectedQuestionIds":["82116"],"selectedPollIds":["51978"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4750","race":"2010_House-G_NC-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-2","democrat":"Bob R. Etheridge","republican":"Renee L. Ellmers","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":48.685805,"actualRep":49.467261,"actualMargin":-0.781456,"actualDRShare":98.153066,"signedError":-4.218544,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.218544,"individualPollMAE":4.218544,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.781456,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-4.218544,"selectedQuestionIds":["81990"],"selectedPollIds":["51897"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4762","race":"2010_House-G_ND-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"ND-1","democrat":"Earl Pomeroy","republican":"Rick Berg","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":45.079207,"actualRep":54.920793,"actualMargin":-9.841587,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.841587,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.841587,"individualPollMAE":0.841587,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.841587,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":0.841587,"selectedQuestionIds":["82007"],"selectedPollIds":["51914"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4775","race":"2010_House-G_OH-13","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-13","democrat":"Betty Sutton","republican":"Tom Ganley","pollDem":39.3,"pollRep":34.4,"pollMargin":4.9,"actualDem":55.732199,"actualRep":44.267801,"actualMargin":11.464397,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-6.564397,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.564397,"individualPollMAE":6.564397,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.464397,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":4.9,"signedError":-6.564397,"selectedQuestionIds":["117790"],"selectedPollIds":["32865"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4778","race":"2010_House-G_OH-16","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-16","democrat":"John A. Boccieri","republican":"Jim Renacci","pollDem":31.5,"pollRep":45.9,"pollMargin":-14.4,"actualDem":41.262032,"actualRep":52.082113,"actualMargin":-10.82008,"actualDRShare":93.344145,"signedError":-3.57992,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.57992,"individualPollMAE":3.57992,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.82008,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-14.4,"signedError":-3.57992,"selectedQuestionIds":["117792"],"selectedPollIds":["32865"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4780","race":"2010_House-G_OH-18","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-18","democrat":"Zachary T. Space","republican":"Bob Gibbs","pollDem":33.4,"pollRep":46.5,"pollMargin":-13.1,"actualDem":40.489752,"actualRep":53.861658,"actualMargin":-13.371906,"actualDRShare":94.35141,"signedError":0.271906,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.271906,"individualPollMAE":0.271906,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-13.371906,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"396","pollster":"ccAdvertising","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-13.1,"signedError":0.271906,"selectedQuestionIds":["117793"],"selectedPollIds":["32865"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4786","race":"2010_House-G_OR-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OR-1","democrat":"David Wu","republican":"Robert Y. Cornilles","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":13.0,"actualDem":54.746355,"actualRep":41.944085,"actualMargin":12.80227,"actualDRShare":96.69044,"signedError":0.19773,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.19773,"individualPollMAE":0.19773,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.80227,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"87","pollster":"Elway Research","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":0.19773,"selectedQuestionIds":["82150"],"selectedPollIds":["52016"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4790","race":"2010_House-G_OR-5","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OR-5","democrat":"Kurt Schrader","republican":"L. Scott Bruun","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":51.248783,"actualRep":45.956707,"actualMargin":5.292076,"actualDRShare":97.20549,"signedError":6.707924,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.707924,"individualPollMAE":6.707924,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.292076,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"87","pollster":"Elway Research","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":6.707924,"selectedQuestionIds":["82154"],"selectedPollIds":["52016"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4796","race":"2010_House-G_PA-6","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-6","democrat":"Manan Trivedi","republican":"Jim Gerlach","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":42.897513,"actualRep":57.102487,"actualMargin":-14.204975,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":4.204975,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.204975,"individualPollMAE":4.204975,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.204975,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":4.204975,"selectedQuestionIds":["82171"],"selectedPollIds":["52035"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4798","race":"2010_House-G_PA-8","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-8","democrat":"Patrick J. Murphy","republican":"Michael G. Fitzpatrick","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":46.477369,"actualRep":53.522631,"actualMargin":-7.045263,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.954737,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.954737,"individualPollMAE":2.954737,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.045263,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-2.954737,"selectedQuestionIds":["82177"],"selectedPollIds":["52040"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"48","race":"2016_Gov-G_DE","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"DE","democrat":"John C. Carney Jr.","republican":"Colin R. J. Bonini","pollDem":56.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":16.0,"actualDem":58.340379,"actualRep":39.187006,"actualMargin":19.153374,"actualDRShare":97.527385,"signedError":-3.153374,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.153374,"individualPollMAE":3.153374,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":19.153374,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-3.153374,"selectedQuestionIds":["77171"],"selectedPollIds":["48868"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4800","race":"2010_House-G_PA-10","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-10","democrat":"Christopher P. Carney","republican":"Tom Marino","pollDem":41.5,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":-1.5,"actualDem":44.823268,"actualRep":55.176732,"actualMargin":-10.353464,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":8.853464,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.853464,"individualPollMAE":8.853464,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.353464,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"64","pollster":"Digital Research","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":1.353464,"selectedQuestionIds":["82185"],"selectedPollIds":["52046"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"176","pollster":"Lycoming College Polling Institute","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":16.353464,"selectedQuestionIds":["82186"],"selectedPollIds":["52047"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4801","race":"2010_House-G_PA-11","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-11","democrat":"Paul E. Kanjorski","republican":"Lou Barletta","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":43.5,"pollMargin":1.5,"actualDem":45.299443,"actualRep":54.700557,"actualMargin":-9.401115,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":10.901115,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.901115,"individualPollMAE":10.901115,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.401115,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"64","pollster":"Digital Research","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":17.401115,"selectedQuestionIds":["82195"],"selectedPollIds":["52046"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"250","pollster":"PSB Research","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":4.401115,"selectedQuestionIds":["82196"],"selectedPollIds":["52055"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4807","race":"2010_House-G_PA-17","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-17","democrat":"Thomas Timothy Holden","republican":"David G. Argall","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":28.0,"pollMargin":30.0,"actualDem":55.500595,"actualRep":44.499405,"actualMargin":11.00119,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":18.99881,"absoluteAverageMiss":18.99881,"individualPollMAE":18.99881,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.00119,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":18.99881,"selectedQuestionIds":["82215"],"selectedPollIds":["52069"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4810","race":"2010_House-G_RI-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"RI-1","democrat":"David N. Cicilline","republican":"John J. Loughlin","pollDem":43.666667,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":2.666667,"actualDem":50.536023,"actualRep":44.48742,"actualMargin":6.048603,"actualDRShare":95.023443,"signedError":-3.381936,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.381936,"individualPollMAE":3.381936,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.048603,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.048603,"selectedQuestionIds":["82217"],"selectedPollIds":["52071"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-6.048603,"selectedQuestionIds":["82218"],"selectedPollIds":["52072"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"285","pollster":"Quest Research Group","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-4.048603,"selectedQuestionIds":["82216"],"selectedPollIds":["52070"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4811","race":"2010_House-G_RI-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"RI-2","democrat":"Jim Langevin","republican":"Mark S. Zaccaria","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":19.0,"pollMargin":35.0,"actualDem":59.793897,"actualRep":31.722105,"actualMargin":28.071793,"actualDRShare":91.516002,"signedError":6.928207,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.928207,"individualPollMAE":6.928207,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-25","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":28.071793,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"285","pollster":"Quest Research Group","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":35.0,"signedError":6.928207,"selectedQuestionIds":["82224"],"selectedPollIds":["52070"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4818","race":"2010_House-G_SD-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"SD-1","democrat":"Stephanie Herseth Sandlin","republican":"Kristi Noem","pollDem":42.833333,"pollRep":44.666667,"pollMargin":-1.833333,"actualDem":45.89138,"actualRep":48.1185,"actualMargin":-2.22712,"actualDRShare":94.00988,"signedError":0.393787,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.393787,"individualPollMAE":2.242373,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-21"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.22712,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.22712,"selectedQuestionIds":["82237"],"selectedPollIds":["52086"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"231","pollster":"Nielson Brothers Polling","date":"2010-10-21","pollMargin":1.5,"signedError":3.72712,"selectedQuestionIds":["82236"],"selectedPollIds":["52085"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.77288,"selectedQuestionIds":["82238"],"selectedPollIds":["52087"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4844","race":"2010_House-G_TX-17","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"TX-17","democrat":"Thomas Edwards","republican":"Bill Flores","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":36.571634,"actualRep":61.801879,"actualMargin":-25.230245,"actualDRShare":98.373513,"signedError":13.230245,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.230245,"individualPollMAE":13.230245,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-25.230245,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"250","pollster":"PSB Research","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":13.230245,"selectedQuestionIds":["82261"],"selectedPollIds":["52110"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"485","race":"2018_House-G_OK-5","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OK-5","democrat":"Kendra Horn","republican":"Steve Russell","pollDem":37.1,"pollRep":48.6,"pollMargin":-11.5,"actualDem":50.698443,"actualRep":49.301557,"actualMargin":1.396887,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-12.896887,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.896887,"individualPollMAE":12.896887,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-29","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":1.396887,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":-11.5,"signedError":-12.896887,"selectedQuestionIds":["91181"],"selectedPollIds":["56624"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4850","race":"2010_House-G_TX-23","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"TX-23","democrat":"Ciro D. Rodriguez","republican":"Francisco R. Canseco","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":44.444151,"actualRep":49.396835,"actualMargin":-4.952684,"actualDRShare":93.840986,"signedError":-1.047316,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.047316,"individualPollMAE":1.047316,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.952684,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"239","pollster":"OnMessage Inc.","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-1.047316,"selectedQuestionIds":["82265"],"selectedPollIds":["52114"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"4860","race":"2010_House-G_UT-1","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-1","democrat":"Morgan E. Bowen","republican":"Rob Bishop","pollDem":17.0,"pollRep":65.5,"pollMargin":-48.5,"actualDem":23.925367,"actualRep":69.193501,"actualMargin":-45.268134,"actualDRShare":93.118867,"signedError":-3.231866,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.231866,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-26","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-45.268134,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-45.0,"signedError":0.268134,"selectedQuestionIds":["82269"],"selectedPollIds":["32774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-52.0,"signedError":-6.731866,"selectedQuestionIds":["82270"],"selectedPollIds":["32750"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4861","race":"2010_House-G_UT-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-2","democrat":"Jim Matheson","republican":"Morgan J. Philpot","pollDem":49.5,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":12.5,"actualDem":50.487399,"actualRep":46.060108,"actualMargin":4.427291,"actualDRShare":96.547507,"signedError":8.072709,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.072709,"individualPollMAE":8.072709,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-26","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.427291,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":7.572709,"selectedQuestionIds":["82271"],"selectedPollIds":["32774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":8.572709,"selectedQuestionIds":["82272"],"selectedPollIds":["32750"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4862","race":"2010_House-G_UT-3","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-3","democrat":"Karen E. Hyer","republican":"Jason Chaffetz","pollDem":15.0,"pollRep":63.0,"pollMargin":-48.0,"actualDem":22.941621,"actualRep":72.324599,"actualMargin":-49.382978,"actualDRShare":95.26622,"signedError":1.382978,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.382978,"individualPollMAE":3.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-26","2010-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-49.382978,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-51.0,"signedError":-1.617022,"selectedQuestionIds":["82275"],"selectedPollIds":["32774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2010-10-26","pollMargin":-45.0,"signedError":4.382978,"selectedQuestionIds":["82276"],"selectedPollIds":["32750"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4868","race":"2010_House-G_VA-5","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-5","democrat":"Tom S. Perriello","republican":"Robert Hurt","pollDem":43.666667,"pollRep":47.666667,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":46.987875,"actualRep":50.811946,"actualMargin":-3.824071,"actualDRShare":97.799821,"signedError":-0.175929,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.175929,"individualPollMAE":2.608024,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.824071,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"30","pollster":"Benenson Strategy Group","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.824071,"selectedQuestionIds":["82285"],"selectedPollIds":["52128"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.824071,"selectedQuestionIds":["82283"],"selectedPollIds":["52126"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-4.175929,"selectedQuestionIds":["82284"],"selectedPollIds":["52127"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4872","race":"2010_House-G_VA-9","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-9","democrat":"Frederick C. Boucher","republican":"H. Morgan Griffith","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":46.407229,"actualRep":51.213105,"actualMargin":-4.805876,"actualDRShare":97.620334,"signedError":3.805876,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.805876,"individualPollMAE":3.805876,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.805876,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":3.805876,"selectedQuestionIds":["82297"],"selectedPollIds":["52140"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4876","race":"2010_House-G_WA-2","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WA-2","democrat":"Rick Larsen","republican":"John Koster","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":11.0,"actualDem":51.072334,"actualRep":48.927666,"actualMargin":2.144669,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":8.855331,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.855331,"individualPollMAE":8.855331,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2010-10-20","2010-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.144669,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":15.855331,"selectedQuestionIds":["118021"],"selectedPollIds":["64147"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.855331,"selectedQuestionIds":["82307"],"selectedPollIds":["52148"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4882","race":"2010_House-G_WA-8","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WA-8","democrat":"Suzan DelBene","republican":"David G. Reichert","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":47.94838,"actualRep":52.05162,"actualMargin":-4.103241,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.896759,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.896759,"individualPollMAE":2.896759,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.103241,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-2.896759,"selectedQuestionIds":["82318"],"selectedPollIds":["52158"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4883","race":"2010_House-G_WA-9","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WA-9","democrat":"Adam Smith","republican":"Richard Muri","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":3.0,"actualDem":54.852079,"actualRep":45.147921,"actualMargin":9.704159,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-6.704159,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.704159,"individualPollMAE":6.704159,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-24","2010-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.704159,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-6.704159,"selectedQuestionIds":["82323"],"selectedPollIds":["52162"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4894","race":"2010_House-G_WI-8","series":"house-district","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WI-8","democrat":"Steven L. Kagen","republican":"Reid J. Ribble","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":45.123185,"actualRep":54.765002,"actualMargin":-9.641817,"actualDRShare":99.888187,"signedError":6.641817,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.641817,"individualPollMAE":6.641817,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2010-10-23","2010-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.641817,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":6.641817,"selectedQuestionIds":["82334"],"selectedPollIds":["52173"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"49","race":"2016_Gov-G_IN","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"John R. Gregg","republican":"Eric Joseph Holcomb","pollDem":45.25,"pollRep":42.25,"pollMargin":3.0,"actualDem":45.423439,"actualRep":51.375457,"actualMargin":-5.952019,"actualDRShare":96.798896,"signedError":8.952019,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.952019,"individualPollMAE":8.952019,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-10-29","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-5.952019,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":9.952019,"selectedQuestionIds":["75936"],"selectedPollIds":["48346"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":11.952019,"selectedQuestionIds":["74915"],"selectedPollIds":["47857"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.952019,"selectedQuestionIds":["77167"],"selectedPollIds":["48333"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":7.952019,"selectedQuestionIds":["77172"],"selectedPollIds":["48873"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"491","race":"2018_House-G_PA-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-1","democrat":"Scott Wallace","republican":"Brian Fitzpatrick","pollDem":45.98,"pollRep":47.31,"pollMargin":-1.33,"actualDem":48.718578,"actualRep":51.236566,"actualMargin":-2.517988,"actualDRShare":99.955144,"signedError":1.187988,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.187988,"individualPollMAE":1.187988,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-2.519118,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.00113,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-1.33,"signedError":1.187988,"selectedQuestionIds":["90887"],"selectedPollIds":["56500"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"4923","race":"2012_House-G_CA-7","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-7","democrat":"Ami Bera","republican":"Dan Lungren","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":51.681541,"actualRep":48.318459,"actualMargin":3.363082,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-3.363082,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.363082,"individualPollMAE":3.363082,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.363082,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.363082,"selectedQuestionIds":["81227"],"selectedPollIds":["51351"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"4968","race":"2012_House-G_CA-52","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-52","democrat":"Scott Peters","republican":"Brian P. Bilbray","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":51.18144,"actualRep":48.81856,"actualMargin":2.362881,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.362881,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.362881,"individualPollMAE":2.362881,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.362881,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.362881,"selectedQuestionIds":["81207"],"selectedPollIds":["51341"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"498","race":"2018_House-G_PA-8","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-8","democrat":"Matt Cartwright","republican":"John Chrin","pollDem":57.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":17.0,"actualDem":54.600691,"actualRep":45.323611,"actualMargin":9.27708,"actualDRShare":99.924302,"signedError":7.72292,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.72292,"individualPollMAE":7.72292,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":9.284108,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.007028,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":7.72292,"selectedQuestionIds":["91141"],"selectedPollIds":["56608"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"499","race":"2018_House-G_PA-9","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-9","democrat":"Denny Wolff","republican":"Dan Meuser","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-21.0,"actualDem":40.2248,"actualRep":59.701738,"actualMargin":-19.476938,"actualDRShare":99.926538,"signedError":-1.523062,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.523062,"individualPollMAE":1.523062,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-24","2018-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-19.491256,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.014319,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2018-10-24","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-1.523062,"selectedQuestionIds":["91074"],"selectedPollIds":["56581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5","race":"2014_Sen-G_MT","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Amanda G. Curtis","republican":"Steve Daines","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-14.0,"actualDem":40.068573,"actualRep":57.786364,"actualMargin":-17.717792,"actualDRShare":97.854937,"signedError":3.717792,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.717792,"individualPollMAE":3.717792,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.717792,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":3.717792,"selectedQuestionIds":["42152"],"selectedPollIds":["34429"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"50","race":"2016_Gov-G_MO","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Chris Koster","republican":"Eric Greitens","pollDem":46.142857,"pollRep":44.571429,"pollMargin":1.571429,"actualDem":45.570426,"actualRep":51.13712,"actualMargin":-5.566694,"actualDRShare":96.707546,"signedError":7.138123,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.138123,"individualPollMAE":7.138123,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-5.566694,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"20","pollster":"BK Strategies","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.566694,"selectedQuestionIds":["79758"],"selectedPollIds":["47860"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"69","pollster":"DFM Research","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":11.566694,"selectedQuestionIds":["75382"],"selectedPollIds":["48121"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.566694,"selectedQuestionIds":["77243"],"selectedPollIds":["47629"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.566694,"selectedQuestionIds":["75058"],"selectedPollIds":["47996"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":8.566694,"selectedQuestionIds":["79759"],"selectedPollIds":["50538"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":4.566694,"selectedQuestionIds":["77170"],"selectedPollIds":["48186"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.566694,"selectedQuestionIds":["77173"],"selectedPollIds":["48885"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"500","race":"2018_House-G_PA-10","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-10","democrat":"George B. Scott","republican":"Scott Perry","pollDem":43.03,"pollRep":44.6,"pollMargin":-1.57,"actualDem":48.637699,"actualRep":51.280247,"actualMargin":-2.642547,"actualDRShare":99.917946,"signedError":1.072547,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.072547,"individualPollMAE":1.072547,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-2.644717,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.00217,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-1.57,"signedError":1.072547,"selectedQuestionIds":["90782"],"selectedPollIds":["56446"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5000","race":"2012_House-G_FL-18","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-18","democrat":"Patrick Murphy","republican":"Allen West","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":50.279588,"actualRep":49.703779,"actualMargin":0.575809,"actualDRShare":99.983367,"signedError":0.424191,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.424191,"individualPollMAE":0.424191,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.575809,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.424191,"selectedQuestionIds":["81226"],"selectedPollIds":["51350"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"5021","race":"2012_House-G_GA-12","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-12","democrat":"John Barrow","republican":"Lee I. Anderson","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":6.0,"actualDem":53.700009,"actualRep":46.299991,"actualMargin":7.400018,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-1.400018,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.400018,"individualPollMAE":1.400018,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-31","2012-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.400018,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"1","pollster":"20/20 Insight","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-1.400018,"selectedQuestionIds":["81200"],"selectedPollIds":["30586"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"5024","race":"2012_House-G_HI-1","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"HI-1","democrat":"Colleen W. Hanabusa","republican":"Charles K. Djou","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":11.0,"actualDem":53.473076,"actualRep":44.439957,"actualMargin":9.03312,"actualDRShare":97.913033,"signedError":1.96688,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.96688,"individualPollMAE":1.96688,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.225656,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.192536,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":1.96688,"selectedQuestionIds":["81515"],"selectedPollIds":["51312"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5025","race":"2012_House-G_HI-2","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"HI-2","democrat":"Tulsi Gabbard","republican":"Kawika Crowley","pollDem":73.0,"pollRep":15.0,"pollMargin":58.0,"actualDem":76.84271,"actualRep":18.563683,"actualMargin":58.279028,"actualDRShare":95.406393,"signedError":-0.279028,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.279028,"individualPollMAE":0.279028,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":61.085034,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-2.806007,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":58.0,"signedError":-0.279028,"selectedQuestionIds":["81158"],"selectedPollIds":["51312"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"503","race":"2018_House-G_PA-13","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-13","democrat":"Brent Ottaway","republican":"John Joyce","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-21.0,"actualDem":29.466409,"actualRep":70.393619,"actualMargin":-40.92721,"actualDRShare":99.860027,"signedError":19.92721,"absoluteAverageMiss":19.92721,"individualPollMAE":19.92721,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-40.984577,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.057367,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":19.92721,"selectedQuestionIds":["91140"],"selectedPollIds":["56607"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5035","race":"2012_House-G_IL-8","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-8","democrat":"Tammy Duckworth","republican":"Joe Walsh","pollDem":54.5,"pollRep":42.5,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":54.742165,"actualRep":45.257835,"actualMargin":9.484329,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":2.515671,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.515671,"individualPollMAE":2.515671,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.484329,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":4.515671,"selectedQuestionIds":["81172"],"selectedPollIds":["51323"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":0.515671,"selectedQuestionIds":["81497"],"selectedPollIds":["51349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5037","race":"2012_House-G_IL-10","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-10","democrat":"Brad Schneider","republican":"Robert Dold","pollDem":46.4,"pollRep":53.6,"pollMargin":-7.2,"actualDem":50.628843,"actualRep":49.371157,"actualMargin":1.257686,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-8.457686,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.457686,"individualPollMAE":8.457686,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.257686,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":-7.2,"signedError":-8.457686,"selectedQuestionIds":["81496"],"selectedPollIds":["51349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5038","race":"2012_House-G_IL-11","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-11","democrat":"Bill Foster","republican":"Judy Biggert","pollDem":50.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":58.565052,"actualRep":41.427476,"actualMargin":17.137576,"actualDRShare":99.992528,"signedError":-17.137576,"absoluteAverageMiss":17.137576,"individualPollMAE":17.137576,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":17.137576,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-17.137576,"selectedQuestionIds":["81495"],"selectedPollIds":["51349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5039","race":"2012_House-G_IL-12","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-12","democrat":"William L. Enyart","republican":"Jason Plummer","pollDem":50.6,"pollRep":45.6,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":51.653402,"actualRep":42.738091,"actualMargin":8.915311,"actualDRShare":94.391493,"signedError":-3.915311,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.915311,"individualPollMAE":3.915311,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.915311,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-3.915311,"selectedQuestionIds":["81230"],"selectedPollIds":["51349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5040","race":"2012_House-G_IL-13","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-13","democrat":"David M. Gill","republican":"Rodney Davis","pollDem":45.1,"pollRep":50.2,"pollMargin":-5.1,"actualDem":46.208876,"actualRep":46.549247,"actualMargin":-0.340371,"actualDRShare":92.758123,"signedError":-4.759629,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.759629,"individualPollMAE":4.759629,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.340371,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":-5.1,"signedError":-4.759629,"selectedQuestionIds":["81224"],"selectedPollIds":["51349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5044","race":"2012_House-G_IL-17","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-17","democrat":"Cheri Bustos","republican":"Robert Schilling","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":53.275426,"actualRep":46.717981,"actualMargin":6.557445,"actualDRShare":99.993406,"signedError":-10.557445,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.557445,"individualPollMAE":10.557445,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.557445,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-10.557445,"selectedQuestionIds":["81225"],"selectedPollIds":["51349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5055","race":"2012_House-G_IA-1","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-1","democrat":"Bruce L. Braley","republican":"Benjamin M. Lange","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":56.907399,"actualRep":41.567204,"actualMargin":15.340195,"actualDRShare":98.474603,"signedError":-17.340195,"absoluteAverageMiss":17.340195,"individualPollMAE":17.340195,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.340195,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"525","pollster":"Victory Enterprises","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-17.340195,"selectedQuestionIds":["82498"],"selectedPollIds":["52280"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"506","race":"2018_House-G_PA-16","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-16","democrat":"Ronald A. DiNicola","republican":"Mike Kelly","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":47.268275,"actualRep":51.548771,"actualMargin":-4.280496,"actualDRShare":98.817046,"signedError":8.280496,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.280496,"individualPollMAE":8.280496,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-29","2018-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-4.283221,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.002724,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":8.280496,"selectedQuestionIds":["91142"],"selectedPollIds":["56609"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5068","race":"2012_House-G_KY-6","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"KY-6","democrat":"Albert Ben Chandler","republican":"Andy Barr","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":46.679208,"actualRep":50.568317,"actualMargin":-3.889109,"actualDRShare":97.247525,"signedError":-0.110891,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.110891,"individualPollMAE":0.110891,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.889109,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"55","pollster":"Clout Research","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-0.110891,"selectedQuestionIds":["82499"],"selectedPollIds":["52281"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5076","race":"2012_House-G_ME-1","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-1","democrat":"Chellie M. Pingree","republican":"Jonathan T.E. Courtney","pollDem":59.0,"pollRep":35.5,"pollMargin":23.5,"actualDem":62.083974,"actualRep":33.736522,"actualMargin":28.347452,"actualDRShare":95.820496,"signedError":-4.847452,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.847452,"individualPollMAE":4.847452,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-30","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":29.583912,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-1.236461,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"64","pollster":"Digital Research","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-9.347452,"selectedQuestionIds":["82969"],"selectedPollIds":["30669"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"180","pollster":"Maine People's Resource Center","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":-0.347452,"selectedQuestionIds":["81169"],"selectedPollIds":["30802"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5077","race":"2012_House-G_ME-2","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-2","democrat":"Michael H. Michaud","republican":"Kevin L. Raye","pollDem":51.8,"pollRep":39.433333,"pollMargin":12.366667,"actualDem":55.670703,"actualRep":39.993836,"actualMargin":15.676867,"actualDRShare":95.664538,"signedError":-3.3102,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.3102,"individualPollMAE":5.525622,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-30","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.387334,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.710467,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"64","pollster":"Digital Research","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":3.323133,"selectedQuestionIds":["82970"],"selectedPollIds":["30669"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"163","pollster":"Kimball Political Consulting","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":14.1,"signedError":-1.576867,"selectedQuestionIds":["138637"],"selectedPollIds":["73890"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"180","pollster":"Maine People's Resource Center","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-11.676867,"selectedQuestionIds":["81191"],"selectedPollIds":["30802"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"51","race":"2016_Gov-G_MT","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Steve Bullock","republican":"Greg Gianforte","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":50.245995,"actualRep":46.35523,"actualMargin":3.890765,"actualDRShare":96.601225,"signedError":-5.890765,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.890765,"individualPollMAE":5.890765,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":3.890765,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-5.890765,"selectedQuestionIds":["77174"],"selectedPollIds":["48886"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5116","race":"2012_House-G_MN-8","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-8","democrat":"Richard M. Nolan","republican":"Chip Cravaack","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":46.333333,"pollMargin":-1.333333,"actualDem":54.282184,"actualRep":45.387841,"actualMargin":8.894343,"actualDRShare":99.670025,"signedError":-10.227676,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.227676,"individualPollMAE":10.227676,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.894343,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"239","pollster":"OnMessage Inc.","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-18.894343,"selectedQuestionIds":["81229"],"selectedPollIds":["51352"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-4.894343,"selectedQuestionIds":["81170"],"selectedPollIds":["51321"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-6.894343,"selectedQuestionIds":["81193"],"selectedPollIds":["30735"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5129","race":"2012_House-G_MT-1","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MT-1","democrat":"Kim J. Gillan","republican":"Steve Daines","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":49.5,"pollMargin":-7.5,"actualDem":42.718764,"actualRep":53.251344,"actualMargin":-10.53258,"actualDRShare":95.970109,"signedError":3.03258,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.03258,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-30","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.53258,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-0.46742,"selectedQuestionIds":["81206"],"selectedPollIds":["51340"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":6.53258,"selectedQuestionIds":["81194"],"selectedPollIds":["30681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5130","race":"2012_House-G_NE-1","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-1","democrat":"Korey L. Reiman","republican":"Jeff Fortenberry","pollDem":24.0,"pollRep":65.0,"pollMargin":-41.0,"actualDem":31.709327,"actualRep":68.290673,"actualMargin":-36.581347,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.418653,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.418653,"individualPollMAE":4.418653,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-36.581347,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"382","pollster":"Wiese Research Associates","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-41.0,"signedError":-4.418653,"selectedQuestionIds":["81498"],"selectedPollIds":["51308"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5131","race":"2012_House-G_NE-2","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-2","democrat":"John W. Ewing","republican":"Lee Terry","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":49.204303,"actualRep":50.795697,"actualMargin":-1.591394,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-7.408606,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.408606,"individualPollMAE":7.408606,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.591394,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-12.408606,"selectedQuestionIds":["82504"],"selectedPollIds":["30521"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"382","pollster":"Wiese Research Associates","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-2.408606,"selectedQuestionIds":["81516"],"selectedPollIds":["51308"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5132","race":"2012_House-G_NE-3","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-3","democrat":"Roger Mark Sullivan","republican":"Adrian Smith","pollDem":24.0,"pollRep":64.0,"pollMargin":-40.0,"actualDem":25.828588,"actualRep":74.171412,"actualMargin":-48.342825,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":8.342825,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.342825,"individualPollMAE":8.342825,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-48.342825,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"382","pollster":"Wiese Research Associates","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-40.0,"signedError":8.342825,"selectedQuestionIds":["81153"],"selectedPollIds":["51308"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5136","race":"2012_House-G_NV-4","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-4","democrat":"Steven A. Horsford","republican":"Danny Tarkanian","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":50.106033,"actualRep":42.105767,"actualMargin":8.000266,"actualDRShare":92.211799,"signedError":-13.000266,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.000266,"individualPollMAE":13.000266,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-27","2012-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.000266,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-13.000266,"selectedQuestionIds":["81217"],"selectedPollIds":["51347"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5137","race":"2012_House-G_NH-1","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-1","democrat":"Carol Shea-Porter","republican":"Frank C. Guinta","pollDem":43.666667,"pollRep":46.333333,"pollMargin":-2.666667,"actualDem":49.750451,"actualRep":45.985184,"actualMargin":3.765267,"actualDRShare":95.735634,"signedError":-6.431934,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.431934,"individualPollMAE":6.431934,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.765267,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"228","pollster":"New England College Polling Center","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-10.765267,"selectedQuestionIds":["81203"],"selectedPollIds":["30584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-4.765267,"selectedQuestionIds":["81171"],"selectedPollIds":["51322"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.765267,"selectedQuestionIds":["81188"],"selectedPollIds":["30749"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5138","race":"2012_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Ann McLane Kuster","republican":"Charles Bass","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":40.5,"pollMargin":6.5,"actualDem":50.171313,"actualRep":45.340759,"actualMargin":4.830554,"actualDRShare":95.512072,"signedError":1.669446,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.669446,"individualPollMAE":1.669446,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-30","2012-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.830554,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"228","pollster":"New England College Polling Center","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.169446,"selectedQuestionIds":["81202"],"selectedPollIds":["30584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.169446,"selectedQuestionIds":["81190"],"selectedPollIds":["30749"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5151","race":"2012_House-G_NM-1","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-1","democrat":"Michelle Lujan Grisham","republican":"Janice E. Arnold-Jones","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":15.0,"actualDem":59.061249,"actualRep":40.772359,"actualMargin":18.28889,"actualDRShare":99.833609,"signedError":-3.28889,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.28889,"individualPollMAE":3.28889,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":18.28889,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-3.28889,"selectedQuestionIds":["81223"],"selectedPollIds":["30386"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5152","race":"2012_House-G_NM-2","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-2","democrat":"Evelyn Madrid Erhard","republican":"Stevan Pearce","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":40.867348,"actualRep":59.055939,"actualMargin":-18.188591,"actualDRShare":99.923287,"signedError":0.188591,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.188591,"individualPollMAE":0.188591,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-18.188591,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":0.188591,"selectedQuestionIds":["81221"],"selectedPollIds":["30386"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5164","race":"2012_House-G_NY-11","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-11","democrat":"Mark S. Murphy","republican":"Michael G. Grimm","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":43.038812,"actualRep":48.016577,"actualMargin":-4.977765,"actualDRShare":91.055389,"signedError":-13.022235,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.022235,"individualPollMAE":13.022235,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-27","2012-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.542223,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-3.435543,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-13.022235,"selectedQuestionIds":["81213"],"selectedPollIds":["51345"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5172","race":"2012_House-G_NY-19","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-19","democrat":"Julian Schreibman","republican":"Christopher P. Gibson","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":48.5,"pollMargin":-7.5,"actualDem":43.666185,"actualRep":48.95221,"actualMargin":-5.286025,"actualDRShare":92.618395,"signedError":-2.213975,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.213975,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.768924,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-4.517101,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-4.713975,"selectedQuestionIds":["81228"],"selectedPollIds":["51342"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":0.286025,"selectedQuestionIds":["81220"],"selectedPollIds":["51345"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5174","race":"2012_House-G_NY-21","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-21","democrat":"William L. Owens","republican":"Matthew A. Doheny","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":41.5,"pollMargin":1.5,"actualDem":47.12009,"actualRep":45.265144,"actualMargin":1.854946,"actualDRShare":92.385233,"signedError":-0.354946,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.354946,"individualPollMAE":0.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.018959,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-3.164013,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":0.145054,"selectedQuestionIds":["81208"],"selectedPollIds":["51342"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-0.854946,"selectedQuestionIds":["81212"],"selectedPollIds":["51344"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5177","race":"2012_House-G_NY-24","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-24","democrat":"Daniel B. Maffei","republican":"Ann Marie Buerkle","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":47.121064,"actualRep":41.853693,"actualMargin":5.267371,"actualDRShare":88.974757,"signedError":-5.267371,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.267371,"individualPollMAE":5.267371,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-11-01","2012-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.330395,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-4.063024,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.267371,"selectedQuestionIds":["81205"],"selectedPollIds":["51339"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5178","race":"2012_House-G_NY-25","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-25","democrat":"Louise McIntosh Slaughter","republican":"Maggie Brooks","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":55.710125,"actualRep":41.327612,"actualMargin":14.382513,"actualDRShare":97.037737,"signedError":-4.382513,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.382513,"individualPollMAE":4.382513,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":18.425146,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-4.042632,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-4.382513,"selectedQuestionIds":["81210"],"selectedPollIds":["51344"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"518","race":"2018_House-G_SD-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"SD-1","democrat":"Tim Bjorkman","republican":"Dusty Johnson","pollDem":39.45,"pollRep":52.5,"pollMargin":-13.05,"actualDem":36.025479,"actualRep":60.332177,"actualMargin":-24.306699,"actualDRShare":96.357656,"signedError":11.256699,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.256699,"individualPollMAE":11.256699,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-24.306699,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":14.306699,"selectedQuestionIds":["91455"],"selectedPollIds":["56760"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-16.1,"signedError":8.206699,"selectedQuestionIds":["91498"],"selectedPollIds":["56781"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5180","race":"2012_House-G_NY-27","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-27","democrat":"Kathy C. Hochul","republican":"Chris Collins","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":47.372395,"actualRep":48.888916,"actualMargin":-1.516521,"actualDRShare":96.261311,"signedError":0.516521,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.516521,"individualPollMAE":0.516521,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-31","2012-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.836346,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-2.352866,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.516521,"selectedQuestionIds":["81197"],"selectedPollIds":["51337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5187","race":"2012_House-G_NC-7","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-7","democrat":"Mike McIntyre","republican":"David Rouzer","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":50.097109,"actualRep":49.902891,"actualMargin":0.194217,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-6.194217,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.194217,"individualPollMAE":6.194217,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.194217,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"55","pollster":"Clout Research","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-6.194217,"selectedQuestionIds":["82717"],"selectedPollIds":["52386"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"52","race":"2016_Gov-G_NC","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Roy A. Cooper","republican":"Pat McCrory","pollDem":48.571429,"pollRep":45.142857,"pollMargin":3.428571,"actualDem":49.016135,"actualRep":48.797987,"actualMargin":0.218148,"actualDRShare":97.814122,"signedError":3.210423,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.210423,"individualPollMAE":3.272751,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":0.218148,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"86","pollster":"Elon University","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.218148,"selectedQuestionIds":["75059"],"selectedPollIds":["47937"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.781852,"selectedQuestionIds":["74914"],"selectedPollIds":["47775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.781852,"selectedQuestionIds":["76185"],"selectedPollIds":["48523"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":10.781852,"selectedQuestionIds":["77176"],"selectedPollIds":["48893"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.781852,"selectedQuestionIds":["75109"],"selectedPollIds":["48008"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.781852,"selectedQuestionIds":["76188"],"selectedPollIds":["48524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.781852,"selectedQuestionIds":["74890"],"selectedPollIds":["47779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5210","race":"2012_House-G_OH-16","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-16","democrat":"Betty Sutton","republican":"Jim Renacci","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":47.953003,"actualRep":52.046997,"actualMargin":-4.093995,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-5.906005,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.906005,"individualPollMAE":5.906005,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.093995,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"239","pollster":"OnMessage Inc.","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-5.906005,"selectedQuestionIds":["81491"],"selectedPollIds":["51546"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"5212","race":"2012_House-G_OK-2","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OK-2","democrat":"Rob Wallace","republican":"Markwayne Mullin","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":38.338547,"actualRep":57.340032,"actualMargin":-19.001484,"actualDRShare":95.678579,"signedError":7.001484,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.001484,"individualPollMAE":7.001484,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.001484,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":7.001484,"selectedQuestionIds":["81494"],"selectedPollIds":["51549"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5232","race":"2012_House-G_PA-12","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-12","democrat":"Mark S. Critz","republican":"Keith J. Rothfus","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":48.264742,"actualRep":51.735258,"actualMargin":-3.470516,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-1.529484,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.529484,"individualPollMAE":1.529484,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.470516,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"55","pollster":"Clout Research","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-1.529484,"selectedQuestionIds":["82705"],"selectedPollIds":["52378"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"5239","race":"2012_House-G_RI-1","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"RI-1","democrat":"David N. Cicilline","republican":"Brendan P. Doherty","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":43.5,"pollMargin":-2.5,"actualDem":52.951759,"actualRep":40.824416,"actualMargin":12.127343,"actualDRShare":93.776174,"signedError":-14.627343,"absoluteAverageMiss":14.627343,"individualPollMAE":14.627343,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.127343,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-11.127343,"selectedQuestionIds":["82716"],"selectedPollIds":["30488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"239","pollster":"OnMessage Inc.","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-18.127343,"selectedQuestionIds":["81232"],"selectedPollIds":["51353"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"5240","race":"2012_House-G_RI-2","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"RI-2","democrat":"Jim Langevin","republican":"Michael G. Riley","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":17.0,"actualDem":55.720381,"actualRep":35.115872,"actualMargin":20.604509,"actualDRShare":90.836253,"signedError":-3.604509,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.604509,"individualPollMAE":3.604509,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-26","2012-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":20.604509,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":-3.604509,"selectedQuestionIds":["81214"],"selectedPollIds":["30488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5248","race":"2012_House-G_SD-1","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"SD-1","democrat":"Matt Varilek","republican":"Kristi Noem","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-13.0,"actualDem":42.550266,"actualRep":57.449734,"actualMargin":-14.899468,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.899468,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.899468,"individualPollMAE":1.899468,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-11-02","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.899468,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"231","pollster":"Nielson Brothers Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":1.899468,"selectedQuestionIds":["81192"],"selectedPollIds":["30790"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5294","race":"2012_House-G_UT-1","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-1","democrat":"Donna M. McAleer","republican":"Rob Bishop","pollDem":15.0,"pollRep":72.0,"pollMargin":-57.0,"actualDem":24.685983,"actualRep":71.473315,"actualMargin":-46.787332,"actualDRShare":96.159298,"signedError":-10.212668,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.212668,"individualPollMAE":10.212668,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-46.787332,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-57.0,"signedError":-10.212668,"selectedQuestionIds":["81196"],"selectedPollIds":["30618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5295","race":"2012_House-G_UT-2","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-2","democrat":"F. Jay Seegmiller","republican":"Chris Stewart","pollDem":28.0,"pollRep":49.5,"pollMargin":-21.5,"actualDem":33.465167,"actualRep":62.171035,"actualMargin":-28.705868,"actualDRShare":95.636203,"signedError":7.205868,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.205868,"individualPollMAE":7.205868,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-28.705868,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":12.705868,"selectedQuestionIds":["81195"],"selectedPollIds":["30618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":1.705868,"selectedQuestionIds":["81198"],"selectedPollIds":["51338"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5296","race":"2012_House-G_UT-3","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-3","democrat":"Søren D. Simonsen","republican":"Jason Chaffetz","pollDem":18.0,"pollRep":68.0,"pollMargin":-50.0,"actualDem":23.394221,"actualRep":76.605779,"actualMargin":-53.211557,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":3.211557,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.211557,"individualPollMAE":3.211557,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-53.211557,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-50.0,"signedError":3.211557,"selectedQuestionIds":["81199"],"selectedPollIds":["30618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5297","race":"2012_House-G_UT-4","series":"house-district","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-4","democrat":"Jim Matheson","republican":"Mia B. Love","pollDem":41.5,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-8.5,"actualDem":48.84396,"actualRep":48.530845,"actualMargin":0.313115,"actualDRShare":97.374805,"signedError":-8.813115,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.813115,"individualPollMAE":8.813115,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.313115,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.313115,"selectedQuestionIds":["81189"],"selectedPollIds":["30618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-12.313115,"selectedQuestionIds":["121600"],"selectedPollIds":["51338"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"53","race":"2016_Gov-G_ND","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"ND","democrat":"Marvin E. Nelson","republican":"Doug Burgum","pollDem":27.0,"pollRep":70.0,"pollMargin":-43.0,"actualDem":19.391875,"actualRep":76.520093,"actualMargin":-57.128218,"actualDRShare":95.911967,"signedError":14.128218,"absoluteAverageMiss":14.128218,"individualPollMAE":14.128218,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-57.128218,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-43.0,"signedError":14.128218,"selectedQuestionIds":["77177"],"selectedPollIds":["48894"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5339","race":"2014_House-G_AK-1","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AK-1","democrat":"Forrest Dunbar","republican":"Don Young","pollDem":43.55,"pollRep":43.8,"pollMargin":-0.25,"actualDem":40.96718,"actualRep":50.965715,"actualMargin":-9.998534,"actualDRShare":91.932895,"signedError":9.748534,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.748534,"individualPollMAE":9.748534,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-25","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.998534,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"155","pollster":"Alaska Survey Research","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":5.5,"signedError":15.498534,"selectedQuestionIds":["127067"],"selectedPollIds":["34435"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":3.998534,"selectedQuestionIds":["48340"],"selectedPollIds":["34324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5341","race":"2014_House-G_AZ-2","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ-2","democrat":"Ron Barber","republican":"Martha McSally","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":49.939595,"actualRep":50.012993,"actualMargin":-0.073398,"actualDRShare":99.952587,"signedError":2.073398,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.073398,"individualPollMAE":2.073398,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.073398,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"274","pollster":"RRH Elections","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.073398,"selectedQuestionIds":["48290"],"selectedPollIds":["35905"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5352","race":"2014_House-G_AR-4","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AR-4","democrat":"James Lee Witt","republican":"Bruce Westerman","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":46.4,"pollMargin":-7.4,"actualDem":42.566135,"actualRep":53.746889,"actualMargin":-11.180754,"actualDRShare":96.313024,"signedError":3.780754,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.780754,"individualPollMAE":3.780754,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.180754,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"78","pollster":"Diamond State Consulting Group","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-7.4,"signedError":3.780754,"selectedQuestionIds":["48369"],"selectedPollIds":["35926"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"54","race":"2016_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Colin Van Ostern","republican":"Chris Sununu","pollDem":44.975,"pollRep":44.15,"pollMargin":0.825,"actualDem":46.572801,"actualRep":48.842333,"actualMargin":-2.269532,"actualDRShare":95.415134,"signedError":3.094532,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.094532,"individualPollMAE":5.357617,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-2.269532,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.730468,"selectedQuestionIds":["75479"],"selectedPollIds":["48187"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"198","pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.730468,"selectedQuestionIds":["75457"],"selectedPollIds":["48128"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"257","pollster":"Praecones Analytica","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-3.4,"signedError":-1.130468,"selectedQuestionIds":["79762"],"selectedPollIds":["47793"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":5.269532,"selectedQuestionIds":["75798"],"selectedPollIds":["48327"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.730468,"selectedQuestionIds":["75480"],"selectedPollIds":["48194"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":15.269532,"selectedQuestionIds":["77175"],"selectedPollIds":["48889"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.730468,"selectedQuestionIds":["76949"],"selectedPollIds":["48263"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":13.269532,"selectedQuestionIds":["76183"],"selectedPollIds":["48497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5404","race":"2014_House-G_CA-52","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-52","democrat":"Scott Peters","republican":"Carl DeMaio","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":51.586871,"actualRep":48.413129,"actualMargin":3.173741,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-4.173741,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.173741,"individualPollMAE":4.173741,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-29","2014-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.173741,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-4.173741,"selectedQuestionIds":["48335"],"selectedPollIds":["35917"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5446","race":"2014_House-G_GA-1","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-1","democrat":"Brian Corwin Reese","republican":"Earl L. \"Buddy\" Carter","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":60.0,"pollMargin":-23.0,"actualDem":39.08646,"actualRep":60.91354,"actualMargin":-21.82708,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-1.17292,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.17292,"individualPollMAE":1.17292,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-30","2014-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-21.82708,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":-1.17292,"selectedQuestionIds":["49004"],"selectedPollIds":["35979"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5455","race":"2014_House-G_GA-10","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-10","democrat":"I. Kenneth Dious","republican":"Jody B. Hice","pollDem":32.2,"pollRep":60.6,"pollMargin":-28.4,"actualDem":33.477708,"actualRep":66.522292,"actualMargin":-33.044585,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":4.644585,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.644585,"individualPollMAE":4.644585,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-30","2014-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-33.044585,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-28.4,"signedError":4.644585,"selectedQuestionIds":["49005"],"selectedPollIds":["35979"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5457","race":"2014_House-G_GA-12","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-12","democrat":"John Barrow","republican":"Rick W. Allen","pollDem":45.7,"pollRep":47.3,"pollMargin":-1.6,"actualDem":45.246802,"actualRep":54.753198,"actualMargin":-9.506396,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":7.906396,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.906396,"individualPollMAE":7.906396,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-11-02","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.506396,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":-1.6,"signedError":7.906396,"selectedQuestionIds":["48781"],"selectedPollIds":["34389"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5473","race":"2014_House-G_IL-10","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-10","democrat":"Brad Schneider","republican":"Robert Dold","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":48.702492,"actualRep":51.297508,"actualMargin":-2.595015,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.595015,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.595015,"individualPollMAE":0.595015,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.595015,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.595015,"selectedQuestionIds":["49010"],"selectedPollIds":["36080"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5474","race":"2014_House-G_IL-11","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-11","democrat":"Bill Foster","republican":"Darlene J. Senger","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":53.461653,"actualRep":46.537775,"actualMargin":6.923878,"actualDRShare":99.999428,"signedError":5.076122,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.076122,"individualPollMAE":5.076122,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.923878,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":5.076122,"selectedQuestionIds":["49011"],"selectedPollIds":["36080"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5475","race":"2014_House-G_IL-12","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-12","democrat":"William L. Enyart","republican":"Mike Bost","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":41.890358,"actualRep":52.464503,"actualMargin":-10.574145,"actualDRShare":94.354862,"signedError":8.574145,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.574145,"individualPollMAE":8.574145,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.574145,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":8.574145,"selectedQuestionIds":["49012"],"selectedPollIds":["36080"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5476","race":"2014_House-G_IL-13","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-13","democrat":"Ann E. Callis","republican":"Rodney Davis","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-17.0,"actualDem":41.344069,"actualRep":58.655931,"actualMargin":-17.311863,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.311863,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.311863,"individualPollMAE":0.311863,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.311863,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":0.311863,"selectedQuestionIds":["49013"],"selectedPollIds":["36080"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5480","race":"2014_House-G_IL-17","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-17","democrat":"Cheri Bustos","republican":"Robert Schilling","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":16.0,"actualDem":55.457186,"actualRep":44.534789,"actualMargin":10.922397,"actualDRShare":99.991974,"signedError":5.077603,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.077603,"individualPollMAE":5.077603,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.922397,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":5.077603,"selectedQuestionIds":["49014"],"selectedPollIds":["36080"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5491","race":"2014_House-G_IA-1","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-1","democrat":"Patrick Joseph Murphy","republican":"Rod Blum","pollDem":42.1,"pollRep":43.6,"pollMargin":-1.5,"actualDem":48.787443,"actualRep":51.074641,"actualMargin":-2.287198,"actualDRShare":99.862084,"signedError":0.787198,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.787198,"individualPollMAE":0.787198,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.287198,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-1.5,"signedError":0.787198,"selectedQuestionIds":["48349"],"selectedPollIds":["34091"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5492","race":"2014_House-G_IA-2","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-2","democrat":"Dave Loebsack","republican":"Mariannette Miller-Meeks","pollDem":51.3,"pollRep":37.9,"pollMargin":13.4,"actualDem":52.475588,"actualRep":47.362336,"actualMargin":5.113252,"actualDRShare":99.837924,"signedError":8.286748,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.286748,"individualPollMAE":8.286748,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.113252,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":13.4,"signedError":8.286748,"selectedQuestionIds":["48345"],"selectedPollIds":["34091"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5493","race":"2014_House-G_IA-3","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-3","democrat":"Staci Appel","republican":"David Young","pollDem":43.6,"pollRep":45.7,"pollMargin":-2.1,"actualDem":42.227351,"actualRep":52.758574,"actualMargin":-10.531223,"actualDRShare":94.985925,"signedError":8.431223,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.431223,"individualPollMAE":8.431223,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.531223,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-2.1,"signedError":8.431223,"selectedQuestionIds":["48346"],"selectedPollIds":["34091"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5494","race":"2014_House-G_IA-4","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-4","democrat":"Jim Mowrer","republican":"Steve King","pollDem":38.6,"pollRep":50.7,"pollMargin":-12.1,"actualDem":38.276984,"actualRep":61.615989,"actualMargin":-23.339005,"actualDRShare":99.892974,"signedError":11.239005,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.239005,"individualPollMAE":11.239005,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-23.339005,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-12.1,"signedError":11.239005,"selectedQuestionIds":["48347"],"selectedPollIds":["34091"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5495","race":"2014_House-G_KS-1","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KS-1","democrat":"James E. Sherow","republican":"Tim Huelskamp","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":7.0,"actualDem":32.032073,"actualRep":67.967927,"actualMargin":-35.935855,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":42.935855,"absoluteAverageMiss":42.935855,"individualPollMAE":42.935855,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-25","2014-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-35.935855,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"157","pollster":"Jayhawk Consulting Services","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":42.935855,"selectedQuestionIds":["49015"],"selectedPollIds":["36081"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"55","race":"2016_Gov-GS_OR","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"GS","location":"OR","democrat":"Kate Brown","republican":"William C. Pierce","pollDem":50.166667,"pollRep":38.466667,"pollMargin":11.7,"actualDem":50.616841,"actualRep":43.452673,"actualMargin":7.164168,"actualDRShare":94.069513,"signedError":4.535832,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.535832,"individualPollMAE":4.535832,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":7.164168,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"55","pollster":"Clout Research","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":11.1,"signedError":3.935832,"selectedQuestionIds":["79783"],"selectedPollIds":["50551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.835832,"selectedQuestionIds":["75383"],"selectedPollIds":["48017"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":7.835832,"selectedQuestionIds":["77178"],"selectedPollIds":["48897"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5513","race":"2014_House-G_ME-1","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-1","democrat":"Chellie M. Pingree","republican":"Isaac J. Misiuk","pollDem":55.7,"pollRep":30.4,"pollMargin":25.3,"actualDem":57.975633,"actualRep":29.426964,"actualMargin":28.548668,"actualDRShare":87.402597,"signedError":-3.248668,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.248668,"individualPollMAE":3.248668,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-11-01","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":29.758367,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-1.209699,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"180","pollster":"Maine People's Resource Center","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":25.3,"signedError":-3.248668,"selectedQuestionIds":["48341"],"selectedPollIds":["34383"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5514","race":"2014_House-G_ME-2","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-2","democrat":"Emily Ann Cain","republican":"Bruce Poliquin","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":42.9,"pollMargin":-0.9,"actualDem":40.191316,"actualRep":45.191842,"actualMargin":-5.000525,"actualDRShare":85.383158,"signedError":4.100525,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.100525,"individualPollMAE":4.100525,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-11-01","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.204023,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.203498,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"180","pollster":"Maine People's Resource Center","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-0.9,"signedError":4.100525,"selectedQuestionIds":["48342"],"selectedPollIds":["34383"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5528","race":"2014_House-G_MA-6","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MA-6","democrat":"Seth Moulton","republican":"Richard R. Tisei","pollDem":40.25,"pollRep":42.15,"pollMargin":-1.9,"actualDem":53.649267,"actualRep":40.151083,"actualMargin":13.498184,"actualDRShare":93.800351,"signedError":-15.398184,"absoluteAverageMiss":15.398184,"individualPollMAE":15.398184,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-24","2014-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.830409,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.332225,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-15.498184,"selectedQuestionIds":["48332"],"selectedPollIds":["34343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"245","pollster":"Øptimus Analytics","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":-1.8,"signedError":-15.298184,"selectedQuestionIds":["49016"],"selectedPollIds":["36082"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"5531","race":"2014_House-G_MA-9","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MA-9","democrat":"Bill Keating","republican":"John C. Chapman","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":53.075766,"actualRep":43.458753,"actualMargin":9.617013,"actualDRShare":96.534519,"signedError":-4.617013,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.617013,"individualPollMAE":4.617013,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-28","2014-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.956132,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.339119,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-4.617013,"selectedQuestionIds":["48331"],"selectedPollIds":["34343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5537","race":"2014_House-G_MI-6","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MI-6","democrat":"Paul Clements","republican":"Fred Upton","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":40.383106,"actualRep":55.892064,"actualMargin":-15.508958,"actualDRShare":96.27517,"signedError":11.508958,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.508958,"individualPollMAE":11.508958,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-25","2014-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.508958,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"130","pollster":"EMC Research","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":11.508958,"selectedQuestionIds":["48325"],"selectedPollIds":["35910"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"5566","race":"2014_House-G_MT-1","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MT-1","democrat":"John Lewis","republican":"Ryan K. Zinke","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":40.408954,"actualRep":55.405299,"actualMargin":-14.996345,"actualDRShare":95.814253,"signedError":2.996345,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.996345,"individualPollMAE":2.996345,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.996345,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":2.996345,"selectedQuestionIds":["48338"],"selectedPollIds":["34429"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5568","race":"2014_House-G_NE-2","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-2","democrat":"Brad Ashford","republican":"Lee Terry","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":48.90239,"actualRep":45.570203,"actualMargin":3.332187,"actualDRShare":94.472593,"signedError":1.667813,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.667813,"individualPollMAE":1.667813,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.332187,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"69","pollster":"DFM Research","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":1.667813,"selectedQuestionIds":["48321"],"selectedPollIds":["35909"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"5574","race":"2014_House-G_NH-1","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-1","democrat":"Carol Shea-Porter","republican":"Frank C. Guinta","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":48.105349,"actualRep":51.705557,"actualMargin":-3.600208,"actualDRShare":99.810906,"signedError":-1.399792,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.399792,"individualPollMAE":4.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-31","2014-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.600208,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"228","pollster":"New England College Polling Center","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-5.399792,"selectedQuestionIds":["48336"],"selectedPollIds":["34377"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.600208,"selectedQuestionIds":["48351"],"selectedPollIds":["34423"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5575","race":"2014_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Ann McLane Kuster","republican":"Marilinda Garcia","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":9.0,"actualDem":54.873543,"actualRep":44.869093,"actualMargin":10.00445,"actualDRShare":99.742636,"signedError":-1.00445,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.00445,"individualPollMAE":2.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-31","2014-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.00445,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"228","pollster":"New England College Polling Center","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":0.99555,"selectedQuestionIds":["48337"],"selectedPollIds":["34377"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-3.00445,"selectedQuestionIds":["48339"],"selectedPollIds":["34423"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5577","race":"2014_House-G_NJ-2","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-2","democrat":"William Hughes","republican":"Frank A. LoBiondo","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":37.27166,"actualRep":61.459909,"actualMargin":-24.188249,"actualDRShare":98.731569,"signedError":6.188249,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.188249,"individualPollMAE":6.188249,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-26","2014-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-24.188249,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"317","pollster":"Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":6.188249,"selectedQuestionIds":["48329"],"selectedPollIds":["35913"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5578","race":"2014_House-G_NJ-3","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-3","democrat":"Aimee Belgard","republican":"Tom MacArthur","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":44.350172,"actualRep":53.986771,"actualMargin":-9.636599,"actualDRShare":98.336942,"signedError":4.636599,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.636599,"individualPollMAE":4.636599,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-27","2014-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.636599,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"317","pollster":"Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":4.636599,"selectedQuestionIds":["48394"],"selectedPollIds":["35945"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5580","race":"2014_House-G_NJ-5","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-5","democrat":"Roy Cho","republican":"Scott Garrett","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-11.0,"actualDem":43.302756,"actualRep":55.408345,"actualMargin":-12.105589,"actualDRShare":98.711101,"signedError":1.105589,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.105589,"individualPollMAE":1.105589,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-28","2014-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-12.105589,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":1.105589,"selectedQuestionIds":["48334"],"selectedPollIds":["35916"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"559","race":"2018_House-G_TX-32","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"TX-32","democrat":"Colin Allred","republican":"Pete Sessions","pollDem":45.82,"pollRep":41.8,"pollMargin":4.02,"actualDem":52.270155,"actualRep":45.75176,"actualMargin":6.518395,"actualDRShare":98.021914,"signedError":-2.498395,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.498395,"individualPollMAE":2.498395,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-01","2018-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":6.518395,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":4.02,"signedError":-2.498395,"selectedQuestionIds":["91249"],"selectedPollIds":["56658"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5591","race":"2014_House-G_NY-1","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-1","democrat":"Timothy H. Bishop","republican":"Lee M. Zeldin","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":44.546427,"actualRep":53.211596,"actualMargin":-8.665169,"actualDRShare":97.758023,"signedError":3.665169,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.665169,"individualPollMAE":3.665169,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-28","2014-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.908923,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-3.756246,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":3.665169,"selectedQuestionIds":["48286"],"selectedPollIds":["35904"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"56","race":"2016_Gov-G_UT","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Mike Weinholtz","republican":"Gary Richard Herbert","pollDem":31.333333,"pollRep":61.666667,"pollMargin":-30.333333,"actualDem":28.741239,"actualRep":66.740146,"actualMargin":-37.998907,"actualDRShare":95.481385,"signedError":7.665573,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.665573,"individualPollMAE":7.666302,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-11-01","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-37.998907,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":4.998907,"selectedQuestionIds":["75481"],"selectedPollIds":["48191"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":17.998907,"selectedQuestionIds":["77179"],"selectedPollIds":["48904"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"389","pollster":"Y2 Analytics","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-38.0,"signedError":-0.001093,"selectedQuestionIds":["75938"],"selectedPollIds":["48339"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5601","race":"2014_House-G_NY-11","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-11","democrat":"Domenic M. Recchia","republican":"Michael G. Grimm","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":40.760728,"actualRep":53.050928,"actualMargin":-12.290201,"actualDRShare":93.811656,"signedError":-6.709799,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.709799,"individualPollMAE":6.709799,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-27","2014-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-6.182038,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-6.108163,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-6.709799,"selectedQuestionIds":["48783"],"selectedPollIds":["35980"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5608","race":"2014_House-G_NY-18","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-18","democrat":"Sean Patrick Maloney","republican":"Nan Hayworth","pollDem":45.666667,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":3.666667,"actualDem":47.66248,"actualRep":45.877407,"actualMargin":1.785074,"actualDRShare":93.539887,"signedError":1.881593,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.881593,"individualPollMAE":3.071642,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-10-26"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.20151,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-3.416437,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":4.214926,"selectedQuestionIds":["49824"],"selectedPollIds":["36462"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.785074,"selectedQuestionIds":["48326"],"selectedPollIds":["35911"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.214926,"selectedQuestionIds":["48327"],"selectedPollIds":["35912"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5609","race":"2014_House-G_NY-19","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-19","democrat":"Sean S. Eldridge","republican":"Christopher P. Gibson","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-23.0,"actualDem":34.45194,"actualRep":62.559246,"actualMargin":-28.107306,"actualDRShare":97.011186,"signedError":5.107306,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.107306,"individualPollMAE":5.107306,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.769338,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-8.337968,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":5.107306,"selectedQuestionIds":["48320"],"selectedPollIds":["35908"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5611","race":"2014_House-G_NY-21","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-21","democrat":"Aaron G. Woolf","republican":"Elise M. Stefanik","pollDem":32.5,"pollRep":48.5,"pollMargin":-16.0,"actualDem":32.531202,"actualRep":53.000143,"actualMargin":-20.468941,"actualDRShare":85.531345,"signedError":4.468941,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.468941,"individualPollMAE":4.468941,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.582117,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-5.886824,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"132","pollster":"Harper Polling","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":6.468941,"selectedQuestionIds":["48330"],"selectedPollIds":["35914"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":2.468941,"selectedQuestionIds":["48297"],"selectedPollIds":["35906"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5614","race":"2014_House-G_NY-24","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-24","democrat":"Daniel B. Maffei","republican":"John Katko","pollDem":43.5,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-2.5,"actualDem":39.477526,"actualRep":58.241937,"actualMargin":-18.76441,"actualDRShare":97.719463,"signedError":16.26441,"absoluteAverageMiss":16.26441,"individualPollMAE":16.26441,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.446521,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-8.317889,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":23.76441,"selectedQuestionIds":["48333"],"selectedPollIds":["35915"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":8.76441,"selectedQuestionIds":["48322"],"selectedPollIds":["35908"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"567","race":"2018_House-G_UT-4","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-4","democrat":"Ben McAdams","republican":"Mia B. Love","pollDem":47.475,"pollRep":44.09,"pollMargin":3.385,"actualDem":50.121996,"actualRep":49.864263,"actualMargin":0.257733,"actualDRShare":99.986259,"signedError":3.127267,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.127267,"individualPollMAE":3.127267,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":0.257733,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"81","pollster":"Dixie Strategies","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":6.46,"signedError":6.202267,"selectedQuestionIds":["90928"],"selectedPollIds":["56524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":0.31,"signedError":0.052267,"selectedQuestionIds":["90838"],"selectedPollIds":["56477"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5685","race":"2014_House-G_SD-1","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"SD-1","democrat":"Corinna Balderramos Robinson","republican":"Kristi Noem","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":57.333333,"pollMargin":-21.333333,"actualDem":33.470373,"actualRep":66.529627,"actualMargin":-33.059254,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":11.725921,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.725921,"individualPollMAE":11.725921,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-10-26"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-33.059254,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":12.059254,"selectedQuestionIds":["49024"],"selectedPollIds":["34352"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":6.059254,"selectedQuestionIds":["48353"],"selectedPollIds":["34244"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":17.059254,"selectedQuestionIds":["48324"],"selectedPollIds":["34391"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"569","race":"2018_House-G_VA-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-2","democrat":"Elaine G. Luria","republican":"Scott W. Taylor","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":51.044882,"actualRep":48.809193,"actualMargin":2.235689,"actualDRShare":99.854075,"signedError":-2.235689,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.235689,"individualPollMAE":2.235689,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":2.235918,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.000229,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.235689,"selectedQuestionIds":["91515"],"selectedPollIds":["56791"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"57","race":"2016_Gov-G_VT","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Sue M. Minter","republican":"Phil Scott","pollDem":44.5,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-1.5,"actualDem":44.16594,"actualRep":52.908229,"actualMargin":-8.742289,"actualDRShare":97.074169,"signedError":7.242289,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.242289,"individualPollMAE":7.242289,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-8.742289,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"274","pollster":"RRH Elections","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.742289,"selectedQuestionIds":["79786"],"selectedPollIds":["47640"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":12.742289,"selectedQuestionIds":["77180"],"selectedPollIds":["48905"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5731","race":"2014_House-G_UT-1","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-1","democrat":"Donna M. McAleer","republican":"Rob Bishop","pollDem":25.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-32.0,"actualDem":28.009597,"actualRep":64.776135,"actualMargin":-36.766538,"actualDRShare":92.785733,"signedError":4.766538,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.766538,"individualPollMAE":4.766538,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-36.766538,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":4.766538,"selectedQuestionIds":["49025"],"selectedPollIds":["36089"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5732","race":"2014_House-G_UT-2","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-2","democrat":"Luz Robles","republican":"Chris Stewart","pollDem":26.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-32.0,"actualDem":32.550551,"actualRep":60.822366,"actualMargin":-28.271814,"actualDRShare":93.372917,"signedError":-3.728186,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.728186,"individualPollMAE":3.728186,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-28.271814,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":-3.728186,"selectedQuestionIds":["49027"],"selectedPollIds":["36089"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5733","race":"2014_House-G_UT-3","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-3","democrat":"Brian Wonnacott","republican":"Jason Chaffetz","pollDem":19.0,"pollRep":70.0,"pollMargin":-51.0,"actualDem":22.484921,"actualRep":72.206481,"actualMargin":-49.72156,"actualDRShare":94.691401,"signedError":-1.27844,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.27844,"individualPollMAE":1.27844,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-22","2014-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-49.72156,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2014-10-22","pollMargin":-51.0,"signedError":-1.27844,"selectedQuestionIds":["49029"],"selectedPollIds":["36089"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5734","race":"2014_House-G_UT-4","series":"house-district","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"UT-4","democrat":"Doug Owens","republican":"Mia B. Love","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":45.814987,"actualRep":50.918678,"actualMargin":-5.103691,"actualDRShare":96.733665,"signedError":0.103691,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.103691,"individualPollMAE":0.103691,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2014-10-24","2014-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.103691,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2014-10-24","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":0.103691,"selectedQuestionIds":["48397"],"selectedPollIds":["35948"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"574","race":"2018_House-G_VA-7","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-7","democrat":"Abigail A. Spanberger","republican":"David Brat","pollDem":43.98,"pollRep":45.79,"pollMargin":-1.81,"actualDem":50.332589,"actualRep":48.393367,"actualMargin":1.939222,"actualDRShare":98.725956,"signedError":-3.749222,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.749222,"individualPollMAE":3.749222,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-01","2018-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":1.939377,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.000155,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":-1.81,"signedError":-3.749222,"selectedQuestionIds":["91179"],"selectedPollIds":["56623"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"577","race":"2018_House-G_VA-10","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-10","democrat":"Jennifer T. Wexton","republican":"Barbara J. Comstock","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":11.0,"actualDem":56.103204,"actualRep":43.728777,"actualMargin":12.374427,"actualDRShare":99.831981,"signedError":-1.374427,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.374427,"individualPollMAE":1.374427,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-27","2018-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":12.3751,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.000673,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"754","pollster":"The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-1.374427,"selectedQuestionIds":["91244"],"selectedPollIds":["56656"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"579","race":"2018_House-G_VT-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"VT-1","democrat":"Peter Welch","republican":"Anya Tynio","pollDem":66.0,"pollRep":28.0,"pollMargin":38.0,"actualDem":69.204004,"actualRep":25.951455,"actualMargin":43.252548,"actualDRShare":95.155459,"signedError":-5.252548,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.252548,"individualPollMAE":5.252548,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-31","2018-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":43.252548,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":38.0,"signedError":-5.252548,"selectedQuestionIds":["91263"],"selectedPollIds":["56663"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"58","race":"2016_Gov-G_WA","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Jay Robert Inslee","republican":"Bill Ray Bryant","pollDem":51.333333,"pollRep":41.666667,"pollMargin":9.666667,"actualDem":54.389647,"actualRep":45.610353,"actualMargin":8.779295,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.887372,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.887372,"individualPollMAE":2.073568,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-11-01","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":8.779295,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"572","pollster":"Leger","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":0.220705,"selectedQuestionIds":["76640"],"selectedPollIds":["48915"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":4.220705,"selectedQuestionIds":["77181"],"selectedPollIds":["48907"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-1.779295,"selectedQuestionIds":["75947"],"selectedPollIds":["48365"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5868","race":"2016_House-G_FL-13","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-13","democrat":"Charlie Crist","republican":"David W. Jolly","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":51.903092,"actualRep":48.096908,"actualMargin":3.806184,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.193816,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.193816,"individualPollMAE":1.193816,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-06","2016-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":3.806184,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"314","pollster":"St. Pete Polls","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":1.193816,"selectedQuestionIds":["77099"],"selectedPollIds":["49205"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"587","race":"2018_House-G_WA-8","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WA-8","democrat":"Kim Schrier","republican":"Dino Rossi","pollDem":47.5,"pollRep":44.7,"pollMargin":2.8,"actualDem":52.415055,"actualRep":47.584945,"actualMargin":4.830111,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.030111,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.030111,"individualPollMAE":2.030111,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-01","2018-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":4.830111,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2018-11-01","pollMargin":2.8,"signedError":-2.030111,"selectedQuestionIds":["91251"],"selectedPollIds":["56659"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5885","race":"2016_House-G_GA-3","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-3","democrat":"Angela Pendley","republican":"Drew Ferguson","pollDem":31.0,"pollRep":63.0,"pollMargin":-32.0,"actualDem":31.653402,"actualRep":68.346598,"actualMargin":-36.693196,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":4.693196,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.693196,"individualPollMAE":4.693196,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-03","2016-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-36.693196,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"751","pollster":"Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":4.693196,"selectedQuestionIds":["82533"],"selectedPollIds":["48322"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5890","race":"2016_House-G_GA-8","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-8","democrat":"James Neal Harris","republican":"Austin Scott","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":60.0,"pollMargin":-26.0,"actualDem":32.357081,"actualRep":67.642919,"actualMargin":-35.285839,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":9.285839,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.285839,"individualPollMAE":9.285839,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-03","2016-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-35.285839,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"751","pollster":"Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":9.285839,"selectedQuestionIds":["82534"],"selectedPollIds":["48322"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5893","race":"2016_House-G_GA-11","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-11","democrat":"Don E. Wilson","republican":"Barry Loudermilk","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":63.0,"pollMargin":-30.0,"actualDem":32.594226,"actualRep":67.405774,"actualMargin":-34.811548,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":4.811548,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.811548,"individualPollMAE":4.811548,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-03","2016-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-34.811548,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"751","pollster":"Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":4.811548,"selectedQuestionIds":["82536"],"selectedPollIds":["48322"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5894","race":"2016_House-G_GA-12","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"GA-12","democrat":"Patricia Carpenter McCracken","republican":"Rick W. Allen","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-14.0,"actualDem":38.399147,"actualRep":61.600853,"actualMargin":-23.201706,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":9.201706,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.201706,"individualPollMAE":9.201706,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-03","2016-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-23.201706,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"751","pollster":"Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":9.201706,"selectedQuestionIds":["82535"],"selectedPollIds":["48322"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"59","race":"2016_Gov-G_WV","series":"governor","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"James Justice","republican":"William Paul Cole","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":49.086513,"actualRep":42.303511,"actualMargin":6.783002,"actualDRShare":91.390024,"signedError":-15.783002,"absoluteAverageMiss":15.783002,"individualPollMAE":15.783002,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":6.783002,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-15.783002,"selectedQuestionIds":["77182"],"selectedPollIds":["48908"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5927","race":"2016_House-G_IN-9","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-9","democrat":"Shelli Yoder","republican":"Trey Hollingsworth","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":40.461463,"actualRep":54.141177,"actualMargin":-13.679714,"actualDRShare":94.60264,"signedError":11.679714,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.679714,"individualPollMAE":11.679714,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-02","2016-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-13.679714,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":11.679714,"selectedQuestionIds":["77106"],"selectedPollIds":["48333"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5928","race":"2016_House-G_IA-1","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-1","democrat":"Monica Vernon","republican":"Rod Blum","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":49.5,"pollMargin":-8.5,"actualDem":46.081454,"actualRep":53.74425,"actualMargin":-7.662795,"actualDRShare":99.825704,"signedError":-0.837205,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.837205,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-7.662795,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":1.662795,"selectedQuestionIds":["77108"],"selectedPollIds":["48466"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"337","pollster":"The Polling Company Inc.","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-3.337205,"selectedQuestionIds":["77117"],"selectedPollIds":["49208"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"5930","race":"2016_House-G_IA-3","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IA-3","democrat":"Jim Mowrer","republican":"David Young","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":39.714876,"actualRep":53.447335,"actualMargin":-13.732458,"actualDRShare":93.162211,"signedError":8.732458,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.732458,"individualPollMAE":8.732458,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-02","2016-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-13.732458,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":8.732458,"selectedQuestionIds":["77107"],"selectedPollIds":["48466"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"595","race":"2018_House-G_WI-6","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WI-6","democrat":"Dan Kohl","republican":"Glenn Grothman","pollDem":40.5,"pollRep":55.5,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":44.463723,"actualRep":55.469214,"actualMargin":-11.005491,"actualDRShare":99.932936,"signedError":-3.994509,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.994509,"individualPollMAE":13.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2018-10-28","2018-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-11.005491,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":9.005491,"selectedQuestionIds":["90940"],"selectedPollIds":["56533"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"503","pollster":"JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":-16.994509,"selectedQuestionIds":["91418"],"selectedPollIds":["56742"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"598","race":"2018_House-G_WV-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WV-1","democrat":"Kendra Fershee","republican":"David B. McKinley","pollDem":32.0,"pollRep":57.4,"pollMargin":-25.4,"actualDem":35.424844,"actualRep":64.575156,"actualMargin":-29.150312,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":3.750312,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.750312,"individualPollMAE":3.750312,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-30","2018-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-29.150312,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-25.4,"signedError":3.750312,"selectedQuestionIds":["91199"],"selectedPollIds":["56634"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"5984","race":"2016_House-G_MN-2","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MN-2","democrat":"Angie Craig","republican":"Jason Lewis","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":45.157538,"actualRep":46.953691,"actualMargin":-1.796153,"actualDRShare":92.111229,"signedError":6.796153,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.796153,"individualPollMAE":6.796153,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-10-28","2016-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-1.796149,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-5e-06,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"109","pollster":"GBAO","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":6.796153,"selectedQuestionIds":["77123"],"selectedPollIds":["49210"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"599","race":"2018_House-G_WV-2","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WV-2","democrat":"Talley Sergent","republican":"Alexander X. Mooney","pollDem":39.4,"pollRep":46.8,"pollMargin":-7.4,"actualDem":42.9758,"actualRep":53.959139,"actualMargin":-10.983339,"actualDRShare":96.934939,"signedError":3.583339,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.583339,"individualPollMAE":3.583339,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-30","2018-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-10.983339,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-7.4,"signedError":3.583339,"selectedQuestionIds":["91200"],"selectedPollIds":["56634"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6","race":"2014_Sen-G_MN","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Al Franken","republican":"Mike McFadden","pollDem":49.5,"pollRep":39.5,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":53.151154,"actualRep":42.907645,"actualMargin":10.243509,"actualDRShare":96.058799,"signedError":-0.243509,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.243509,"individualPollMAE":1.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-21","2014-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.243509,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2014-10-21","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.243509,"selectedQuestionIds":["41010"],"selectedPollIds":["33821"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":0.756491,"selectedQuestionIds":["42115"],"selectedPollIds":["34386"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"60","race":"2016_Sen-G_KS","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Patrick Wiesner","republican":"Jerry Moran","pollDem":27.0,"pollRep":63.666667,"pollMargin":-36.666667,"actualDem":32.238128,"actualRep":62.175254,"actualMargin":-29.937127,"actualDRShare":94.413382,"signedError":-6.72954,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.72954,"individualPollMAE":15.979042,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-10-28","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-29.937127,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"101","pollster":"Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-64.0,"signedError":-34.062873,"selectedQuestionIds":["75723"],"selectedPollIds":["48337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":7.937127,"selectedQuestionIds":["76530"],"selectedPollIds":["48876"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":5.937127,"selectedQuestionIds":["75207"],"selectedPollIds":["48076"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"600","race":"2018_House-G_WV-3","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WV-3","democrat":"Richard Neece Ojeda","republican":"Carol Miller","pollDem":44.5,"pollRep":52.1,"pollMargin":-7.6,"actualDem":43.626597,"actualRep":56.373403,"actualMargin":-12.746807,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.146807,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.146807,"individualPollMAE":5.146807,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-10-30","2018-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-12.746807,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-7.6,"signedError":5.146807,"selectedQuestionIds":["91201"],"selectedPollIds":["56634"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6005","race":"2016_House-G_NE-2","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-2","democrat":"Brad Ashford","republican":"Don Bacon","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":47.72743,"actualRep":48.928923,"actualMargin":-1.201493,"actualDRShare":96.656354,"signedError":-0.798507,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.798507,"individualPollMAE":0.798507,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-10-26","2016-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-1.201493,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"306","pollster":"Singularis Group","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.798507,"selectedQuestionIds":["77124"],"selectedPollIds":["49211"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"601","race":"2018_House-G_WY-1","series":"house-district","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WY-1","democrat":"Greg Hunter","republican":"Liz Cheney","pollDem":28.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-27.0,"actualDem":29.766205,"actualRep":63.585679,"actualMargin":-33.819474,"actualDRShare":93.351885,"signedError":6.819474,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.819474,"individualPollMAE":6.819474,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2018-11-03","2018-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-33.819474,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":6.819474,"selectedQuestionIds":["91456"],"selectedPollIds":["56761"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6011","race":"2016_House-G_NH-1","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-1","democrat":"Carol Shea-Porter","republican":"Frank C. Guinta","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":9.0,"actualDem":44.286089,"actualRep":42.94614,"actualMargin":1.339949,"actualDRShare":87.232229,"signedError":7.660051,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.660051,"individualPollMAE":7.660051,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-05","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":1.339949,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":7.660051,"selectedQuestionIds":["77097"],"selectedPollIds":["48497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6012","race":"2016_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Ann McLane Kuster","republican":"Jim Lawrence","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":32.0,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":49.743011,"actualRep":45.318179,"actualMargin":4.424832,"actualDRShare":95.06119,"signedError":16.575168,"absoluteAverageMiss":16.575168,"individualPollMAE":16.575168,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-05","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":4.435264,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.010432,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":16.575168,"selectedQuestionIds":["77098"],"selectedPollIds":["48497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"602","race":"2016_Pres-G_AK","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":36.550871,"actualRep":51.281512,"actualMargin":-14.730641,"actualDRShare":87.832383,"signedError":4.730641,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.730641,"individualPollMAE":7.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.730641,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":11.730641,"selectedQuestionIds":["76445"],"selectedPollIds":["48849"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-2.269359,"selectedQuestionIds":["76551"],"selectedPollIds":["48861"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6028","race":"2016_House-G_NY-1","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-1","democrat":"Anna Throne-Holst","republican":"Lee M. Zeldin","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-21.0,"actualDem":41.766649,"actualRep":58.198462,"actualMargin":-16.431813,"actualDRShare":99.965112,"signedError":-4.568187,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.568187,"individualPollMAE":4.568187,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-10-29","2016-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-9.810121,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-6.621693,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-4.568187,"selectedQuestionIds":["77141"],"selectedPollIds":["49223"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"603","race":"2016_Pres-G_AL","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":37.03,"pollRep":54.575,"pollMargin":-17.545,"actualDem":34.357946,"actualRep":62.083092,"actualMargin":-27.725147,"actualDRShare":96.441038,"signedError":10.180147,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.180147,"individualPollMAE":10.180147,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-27.725147,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-16.09,"signedError":11.635147,"selectedQuestionIds":["76268"],"selectedPollIds":["48688"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":8.725147,"selectedQuestionIds":["76550"],"selectedPollIds":["48860"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6030","race":"2016_House-G_NY-3","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-3","democrat":"Thomas Suozzi","republican":"Jack M. Martins","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":7.0,"actualDem":52.975445,"actualRep":46.970585,"actualMargin":6.00486,"actualDRShare":99.94603,"signedError":0.99514,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.99514,"individualPollMAE":0.99514,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-10-31","2016-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":11.664004,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-5.659144,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":0.99514,"selectedQuestionIds":["77113"],"selectedPollIds":["49206"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"604","race":"2016_Pres-G_AR","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":35.07,"pollRep":54.675,"pollMargin":-19.605,"actualDem":33.653124,"actualRep":60.574102,"actualMargin":-26.920978,"actualDRShare":94.227226,"signedError":7.315978,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.315978,"individualPollMAE":7.315978,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-26.920978,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-15.21,"signedError":11.710978,"selectedQuestionIds":["76364"],"selectedPollIds":["48779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":2.920978,"selectedQuestionIds":["76553"],"selectedPollIds":["48863"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6046","race":"2016_House-G_NY-19","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-19","democrat":"Zephyr R. Teachout","republican":"John J. Faso","pollDem":43.5,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-1.5,"actualDem":45.909484,"actualRep":54.019323,"actualMargin":-8.109839,"actualDRShare":99.928807,"signedError":6.609839,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.609839,"individualPollMAE":6.609839,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-29","2016-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-3.234248,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-4.875591,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":2.109839,"selectedQuestionIds":["79844"],"selectedPollIds":["50596"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":11.109839,"selectedQuestionIds":["77120"],"selectedPollIds":["49209"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6049","race":"2016_House-G_NY-22","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-22","democrat":"Kim A. Myers","republican":"Claudia Tenney","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":41.024518,"actualRep":46.473822,"actualMargin":-5.449304,"actualDRShare":87.49834,"signedError":1.449304,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.449304,"individualPollMAE":1.449304,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-01","2016-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-3.788806,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-1.660497,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.449304,"selectedQuestionIds":["77142"],"selectedPollIds":["49224"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"605","race":"2016_Pres-G_AZ","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":43.125455,"pollRep":45.372727,"pollMargin":-2.247273,"actualDem":45.126022,"actualRep":48.671616,"actualMargin":-3.545595,"actualDRShare":93.797638,"signedError":1.298322,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.298322,"individualPollMAE":2.123344,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.545508,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-8.7e-05,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-1.454405,"selectedQuestionIds":["75231"],"selectedPollIds":["48087"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"73","pollster":"Data Orbital","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.545595,"selectedQuestionIds":["76380"],"selectedPollIds":["48628"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-0.454405,"selectedQuestionIds":["75214"],"selectedPollIds":["48078"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":1.545595,"selectedQuestionIds":["76447"],"selectedPollIds":["48851"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-4.72,"signedError":-1.174405,"selectedQuestionIds":["76363"],"selectedPollIds":["48778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"572","pollster":"Leger","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":1.545595,"selectedQuestionIds":["76602"],"selectedPollIds":["48912"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"175","pollster":"Lucid","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.545595,"selectedQuestionIds":["75313"],"selectedPollIds":["48102"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-1.454405,"selectedQuestionIds":["75509"],"selectedPollIds":["48211"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.545595,"selectedQuestionIds":["76552"],"selectedPollIds":["48862"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"298","pollster":"Uplift Campaigns","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":4.545595,"selectedQuestionIds":["75456"],"selectedPollIds":["48185"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":1.545595,"selectedQuestionIds":["74788"],"selectedPollIds":["47778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"606","race":"2016_Pres-G_CA","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":55.975,"pollRep":32.623333,"pollMargin":23.351667,"actualDem":61.7264,"actualRep":31.617107,"actualMargin":30.109293,"actualDRShare":93.343506,"signedError":-6.757626,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.757626,"individualPollMAE":6.757626,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2016-10-26","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":30.109274,"outcomeMarginCorrection":1.9e-05,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"127","pollster":"Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":-6.109293,"selectedQuestionIds":["75803"],"selectedPollIds":["48321"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":27.11,"signedError":-2.999293,"selectedQuestionIds":["76271"],"selectedPollIds":["48690"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"572","pollster":"Leger","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":-7.109293,"selectedQuestionIds":["76603"],"selectedPollIds":["48913"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":-5.109293,"selectedQuestionIds":["76554"],"selectedPollIds":["48864"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-9.109293,"selectedQuestionIds":["75087"],"selectedPollIds":["48011"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-10.109293,"selectedQuestionIds":["75391"],"selectedPollIds":["48125"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"607","race":"2016_Pres-G_CO","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":43.798333,"pollRep":40.438333,"pollMargin":3.36,"actualDem":48.15698,"actualRep":43.251397,"actualMargin":4.905583,"actualDRShare":91.408378,"signedError":-1.545583,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.545583,"individualPollMAE":2.270931,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.905583,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"51","pollster":"Ciruli Associates","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-4.905583,"selectedQuestionIds":["75387"],"selectedPollIds":["48123"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.905583,"selectedQuestionIds":["75215"],"selectedPollIds":["48079"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.905583,"selectedQuestionIds":["76446"],"selectedPollIds":["48850"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":5.38,"signedError":0.474417,"selectedQuestionIds":["76285"],"selectedPollIds":["48704"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"161","pollster":"Keating Research","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.094417,"selectedQuestionIds":["75793"],"selectedPollIds":["48356"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"175","pollster":"Lucid","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.094417,"selectedQuestionIds":["75314"],"selectedPollIds":["48103"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"179","pollster":"Magellan Strategies","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":6.5,"signedError":1.594417,"selectedQuestionIds":["75506"],"selectedPollIds":["48202"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.094417,"selectedQuestionIds":["75739"],"selectedPollIds":["48347"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.905583,"selectedQuestionIds":["75994"],"selectedPollIds":["48488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.905583,"selectedQuestionIds":["76555"],"selectedPollIds":["48865"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":0.44,"signedError":-4.465583,"selectedQuestionIds":["75734"],"selectedPollIds":["48344"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.905583,"selectedQuestionIds":["74790"],"selectedPollIds":["47780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"608","race":"2016_Pres-G_CT","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":50.88,"pollRep":37.85,"pollMargin":13.03,"actualDem":54.566301,"actualRep":40.926914,"actualMargin":13.639387,"actualDRShare":95.493215,"signedError":-0.609387,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.609387,"individualPollMAE":2.97,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.639387,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":10.06,"signedError":-3.579387,"selectedQuestionIds":["76286"],"selectedPollIds":["48705"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":2.360613,"selectedQuestionIds":["76556"],"selectedPollIds":["48866"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"609","race":"2016_Pres-G_DC","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"DC","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":85.0,"pollRep":7.0,"pollMargin":78.0,"actualDem":90.483884,"actualRep":4.070383,"actualMargin":86.413501,"actualDRShare":94.554267,"signedError":-8.413501,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.413501,"individualPollMAE":8.413501,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":86.776347,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.362846,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":78.0,"signedError":-8.413501,"selectedQuestionIds":["76557"],"selectedPollIds":["48867"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"61","race":"2016_Sen-G_NY","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Charles E. Schumer","republican":"Wendy E. Long","pollDem":69.0,"pollRep":25.0,"pollMargin":44.0,"actualDem":70.602078,"actualRep":27.167011,"actualMargin":43.435067,"actualDRShare":97.769089,"signedError":0.564933,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.564933,"individualPollMAE":2.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-11-03","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":41.973248,"outcomeMarginCorrection":1.461819,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":42.0,"signedError":-1.435067,"selectedQuestionIds":["75970"],"selectedPollIds":["48478"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":46.0,"signedError":2.564933,"selectedQuestionIds":["76537"],"selectedPollIds":["48892"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"610","race":"2016_Pres-G_DE","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"DE","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":51.015,"pollRep":37.71,"pollMargin":13.305,"actualDem":53.353337,"actualRep":41.922824,"actualMargin":11.430512,"actualDRShare":95.276161,"signedError":1.874488,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.874488,"individualPollMAE":2.305,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.373233,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.05728,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":15.61,"signedError":4.179488,"selectedQuestionIds":["76365"],"selectedPollIds":["48780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-0.430512,"selectedQuestionIds":["76558"],"selectedPollIds":["48868"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"611","race":"2016_Pres-G_FL","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":46.161875,"pollRep":45.474375,"pollMargin":0.6875,"actualDem":47.823316,"actualRep":49.021941,"actualMargin":-1.198626,"actualDRShare":96.845257,"signedError":1.886126,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.886126,"individualPollMAE":3.023063,"n":16,"pollsters":16,"sourceQuestions":25,"selectedQuestions":16,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.198626,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["75235"],"selectedPollIds":["48088"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"81","pollster":"Dixie Strategies","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-3.3,"signedError":-2.101374,"selectedQuestionIds":["74529"],"selectedPollIds":["47621"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["74739"],"selectedPollIds":["47756"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["76359"],"selectedPollIds":["48776"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["76180"],"selectedPollIds":["48625"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":0.89,"signedError":2.088626,"selectedQuestionIds":["76272"],"selectedPollIds":["48691"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["74770"],"selectedPollIds":["47776"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":5.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["74560"],"selectedPollIds":["47637"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["76060"],"selectedPollIds":["48522"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["76239"],"selectedPollIds":["48676"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.801374,"selectedQuestionIds":["75995"],"selectedPollIds":["48489"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["76559"],"selectedPollIds":["48869"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"332","pollster":"TargetSmart","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":9.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["75145"],"selectedPollIds":["48018"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-2.801374,"selectedQuestionIds":["74761"],"selectedPollIds":["47771"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":-3.59,"signedError":-2.391374,"selectedQuestionIds":["76179"],"selectedPollIds":["48624"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.198626,"selectedQuestionIds":["75978"],"selectedPollIds":["48482"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"612","race":"2016_Pres-G_GA","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":43.926364,"pollRep":48.351818,"pollMargin":-4.425455,"actualDem":45.639983,"actualRep":50.771326,"actualMargin":-5.131343,"actualDRShare":96.411309,"signedError":0.705888,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.705888,"individualPollMAE":2.201031,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2016-10-26","2016-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.131343,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"1","pollster":"20/20 Insight","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":2.131343,"selectedQuestionIds":["124923"],"selectedPollIds":["66903"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-3.868657,"selectedQuestionIds":["75216"],"selectedPollIds":["48080"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.131343,"selectedQuestionIds":["76448"],"selectedPollIds":["48852"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-3.8,"signedError":1.331343,"selectedQuestionIds":["75728"],"selectedPollIds":["48341"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-5.41,"signedError":-0.278657,"selectedQuestionIds":["76273"],"selectedPollIds":["48692"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"751","pollster":"Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":2.131343,"selectedQuestionIds":["76068"],"selectedPollIds":["48525"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":4.131343,"selectedQuestionIds":["75507"],"selectedPollIds":["48209"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.131343,"selectedQuestionIds":["76560"],"selectedPollIds":["48870"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-1.868657,"selectedQuestionIds":["74803"],"selectedPollIds":["47785"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":-6.47,"signedError":-1.338657,"selectedQuestionIds":["76353"],"selectedPollIds":["48770"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-0.868657,"selectedQuestionIds":["76245"],"selectedPollIds":["48682"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6122","race":"2016_House-G_SD-1","series":"house-district","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"SD-1","democrat":"Paula Hawks","republican":"Kristi Noem","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-10.0,"actualDem":35.897214,"actualRep":64.102786,"actualMargin":-28.205572,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":18.205572,"absoluteAverageMiss":18.205572,"individualPollMAE":18.205572,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-28.205572,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"231","pollster":"Nielson Brothers Polling","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":18.205572,"selectedQuestionIds":["80818"],"selectedPollIds":["47873"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"613","race":"2016_Pres-G_HI","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":49.655,"pollRep":28.375,"pollMargin":21.28,"actualDem":60.980798,"actualRep":29.439707,"actualMargin":31.541091,"actualDRShare":90.420505,"signedError":-10.261091,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.261091,"individualPollMAE":10.261091,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":32.182815,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.641724,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":18.56,"signedError":-12.981091,"selectedQuestionIds":["76366"],"selectedPollIds":["48781"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":-7.541091,"selectedQuestionIds":["76561"],"selectedPollIds":["48871"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"614","race":"2016_Pres-G_IA","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":41.261667,"pollRep":44.711667,"pollMargin":-3.45,"actualDem":41.752513,"actualRep":51.162061,"actualMargin":-9.409548,"actualDRShare":92.914575,"signedError":5.959548,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.959548,"individualPollMAE":5.959548,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.409548,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-2.7,"signedError":6.709548,"selectedQuestionIds":["75711"],"selectedPollIds":["48331"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":0.2,"signedError":9.609548,"selectedQuestionIds":["76368"],"selectedPollIds":["48783"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":0.8,"signedError":10.209548,"selectedQuestionIds":["75944"],"selectedPollIds":["48466"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"269","pollster":"RABA Research","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":6.409548,"selectedQuestionIds":["75594"],"selectedPollIds":["48264"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":2.409548,"selectedQuestionIds":["75957"],"selectedPollIds":["48470"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":0.409548,"selectedQuestionIds":["76565"],"selectedPollIds":["48875"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"615","race":"2016_Pres-G_ID","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":29.53,"pollRep":50.13,"pollMargin":-20.6,"actualDem":27.492014,"actualRep":59.261432,"actualMargin":-31.769419,"actualDRShare":86.753446,"signedError":11.169419,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.169419,"individualPollMAE":11.169419,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-31.769419,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-23.2,"signedError":8.569419,"selectedQuestionIds":["76367"],"selectedPollIds":["48782"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":13.769419,"selectedQuestionIds":["76562"],"selectedPollIds":["48872"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"616","race":"2016_Pres-G_IL","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":50.325,"pollRep":37.27,"pollMargin":13.055,"actualDem":55.825367,"actualRep":38.761753,"actualMargin":17.063614,"actualDRShare":94.58712,"signedError":-4.008614,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.008614,"individualPollMAE":4.008614,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-10-26","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":17.063614,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-5.063614,"selectedQuestionIds":["74931"],"selectedPollIds":["47878"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":12.22,"signedError":-4.843614,"selectedQuestionIds":["76274"],"selectedPollIds":["48693"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-6.063614,"selectedQuestionIds":["75067"],"selectedPollIds":["48000"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":-0.063614,"selectedQuestionIds":["76564"],"selectedPollIds":["48874"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"617","race":"2016_Pres-G_IN","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":37.558,"pollRep":50.536,"pollMargin":-12.978,"actualDem":37.77484,"actualRep":56.940033,"actualMargin":-19.165194,"actualDRShare":94.714873,"signedError":6.187194,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.187194,"individualPollMAE":6.187194,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2016-10-29","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.165194,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":9.165194,"selectedQuestionIds":["75736"],"selectedPollIds":["48346"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-15.89,"signedError":3.275194,"selectedQuestionIds":["76275"],"selectedPollIds":["48694"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":8.165194,"selectedQuestionIds":["74885"],"selectedPollIds":["47857"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":8.165194,"selectedQuestionIds":["75722"],"selectedPollIds":["48333"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":2.165194,"selectedQuestionIds":["76563"],"selectedPollIds":["48873"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"618","race":"2016_Pres-G_KS","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":36.555,"pollRep":52.6125,"pollMargin":-16.0575,"actualDem":36.052371,"actualRep":56.654582,"actualMargin":-20.602211,"actualDRShare":92.706953,"signedError":4.544711,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.544711,"individualPollMAE":6.243606,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.602211,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"101","pollster":"Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-3.397789,"selectedQuestionIds":["75721"],"selectedPollIds":["48337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-16.23,"signedError":4.372211,"selectedQuestionIds":["76369"],"selectedPollIds":["48784"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":7.602211,"selectedQuestionIds":["76566"],"selectedPollIds":["48876"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":9.602211,"selectedQuestionIds":["75206"],"selectedPollIds":["48076"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"619","race":"2016_Pres-G_KY","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":35.41,"pollRep":55.5725,"pollMargin":-20.1625,"actualDem":32.682188,"actualRep":62.519639,"actualMargin":-29.83745,"actualDRShare":95.201827,"signedError":9.67495,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.67495,"individualPollMAE":9.67495,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-29.83745,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":5.83745,"selectedQuestionIds":["74812"],"selectedPollIds":["47792"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-20.65,"signedError":9.18745,"selectedQuestionIds":["76287"],"selectedPollIds":["48706"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":10.83745,"selectedQuestionIds":["76567"],"selectedPollIds":["48877"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"379","pollster":"Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":12.83745,"selectedQuestionIds":["74995"],"selectedPollIds":["47938"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"62","race":"2016_Sen-G_NC","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Deborah K. Ross","republican":"Richard Burr","pollDem":45.263636,"pollRep":46.318182,"pollMargin":-1.054545,"actualDem":45.365693,"actualRep":51.06178,"actualMargin":-5.696087,"actualDRShare":96.427473,"signedError":4.641541,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.641541,"individualPollMAE":4.696798,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":16,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-5.696087,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"86","pollster":"Elon University","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-3.6,"signedError":2.096087,"selectedQuestionIds":["74994"],"selectedPollIds":["47937"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.696087,"selectedQuestionIds":["74747"],"selectedPollIds":["47759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.696087,"selectedQuestionIds":["76360"],"selectedPollIds":["48773"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.696087,"selectedQuestionIds":["74778"],"selectedPollIds":["47775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":2.696087,"selectedQuestionIds":["75705"],"selectedPollIds":["48326"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.696087,"selectedQuestionIds":["76065"],"selectedPollIds":["48523"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.696087,"selectedQuestionIds":["76251"],"selectedPollIds":["48679"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":9.696087,"selectedQuestionIds":["76538"],"selectedPollIds":["48893"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-0.303913,"selectedQuestionIds":["75104"],"selectedPollIds":["48008"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":4.696087,"selectedQuestionIds":["76067"],"selectedPollIds":["48524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.696087,"selectedQuestionIds":["74793"],"selectedPollIds":["47779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"620","race":"2016_Pres-G_LA","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"LA","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":37.06,"pollRep":51.78,"pollMargin":-14.72,"actualDem":38.449566,"actualRep":58.088685,"actualMargin":-19.639119,"actualDRShare":96.538251,"signedError":4.919119,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.919119,"individualPollMAE":4.919119,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.639119,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-15.44,"signedError":4.199119,"selectedQuestionIds":["76370"],"selectedPollIds":["48785"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":5.639119,"selectedQuestionIds":["76568"],"selectedPollIds":["48878"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6208","race":"2019_Gov-G_KY","series":"governor","year":2019,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2019,"electionDate":"2019-11-05","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Andy Beshear","republican":"Matthew G. Bevin","pollDem":46.5,"pollRep":52.4,"pollMargin":-5.9,"actualDem":49.191233,"actualRep":48.835338,"actualMargin":0.355895,"actualDRShare":98.026572,"signedError":-6.255895,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.255895,"individualPollMAE":6.255895,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2019-10-31","2019-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":0.355895,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2019-10-31","pollMargin":-5.9,"signedError":-6.255895,"selectedQuestionIds":["112824"],"selectedPollIds":["62574"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"621","race":"2016_Pres-G_MA","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":55.535,"pollRep":29.1975,"pollMargin":26.3375,"actualDem":59.050065,"actualRep":32.286203,"actualMargin":26.763862,"actualDRShare":91.336268,"signedError":-0.426362,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.426362,"individualPollMAE":4.6625,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":27.196706,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.432844,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":17.35,"signedError":-9.413862,"selectedQuestionIds":["76276"],"selectedPollIds":["48695"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":32.0,"signedError":5.236138,"selectedQuestionIds":["74513"],"selectedPollIds":["47614"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":-0.763862,"selectedQuestionIds":["76571"],"selectedPollIds":["48881"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"380","pollster":"Western New England University Polling Institute","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":3.236138,"selectedQuestionIds":["75697"],"selectedPollIds":["48324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6210","race":"2020_Pres-G_US","series":"presidential-national","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":51.22875,"pollRep":43.350972,"pollMargin":7.877778,"actualDem":51.305744,"actualRep":46.849806,"actualMargin":4.455938,"actualDRShare":98.15555,"signedError":3.42184,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.42184,"individualPollMAE":3.995486,"n":36,"pollsters":36,"sourceQuestions":67,"selectedQuestions":37,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2020.pdf","outcomeSourceName":"FEC official national presidential counts","archiveActualMargin":4.395927,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.06001,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"635","pollster":"AYTM","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":4.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136307"],"selectedPollIds":["72636"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135865"],"selectedPollIds":["72408"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":4.7,"signedError":0.244062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135480"],"selectedPollIds":["72216"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135729"],"selectedPollIds":["72343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"610","pollster":"Brandwatch Qriously","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":6.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136320"],"selectedPollIds":["72645"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":5.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136496"],"selectedPollIds":["72725"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":5.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136068"],"selectedPollIds":["72506"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":4.2,"signedError":-0.255938,"selectedQuestionIds":["135115"],"selectedPollIds":["72070"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"621","pollster":"Global Marketing Research Services","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":9.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135360"],"selectedPollIds":["72168"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135864"],"selectedPollIds":["72407"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-0.455938,"selectedQuestionIds":["137481"],"selectedPollIds":["73340"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":5.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136034"],"selectedPollIds":["72486"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136487"],"selectedPollIds":["72717"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"619","pollster":"J.L. Partners","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":9.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135342"],"selectedPollIds":["72163"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"583","pollster":"John Zogby Strategies","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":5.4,"signedError":0.944062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136323"],"selectedPollIds":["72648"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"165","pollster":"Lake Research Partners","date":"2020-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.455938,"selectedQuestionIds":["138491"],"selectedPollIds":["73830"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"572","pollster":"Leger","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136215"],"selectedPollIds":["72582"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"633","pollster":"Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":6.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135679"],"selectedPollIds":["72319"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136249"],"selectedPollIds":["72598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"559","pollster":"Opinium","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":9.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135669"],"selectedPollIds":["72314"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":6.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136344"],"selectedPollIds":["72654"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"555","pollster":"RMG Research","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136314"],"selectedPollIds":["72642"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.455938,"selectedQuestionIds":["136311"],"selectedPollIds":["72631"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"562","pollster":"Redfield & Wilton Strategies","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":7.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136319"],"selectedPollIds":["72644"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136338"],"selectedPollIds":["72652"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":7.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135332"],"selectedPollIds":["72160"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"508","pollster":"Spry Strategies","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":0.21,"signedError":-4.245938,"selectedQuestionIds":["135141","135885"],"selectedPollIds":["72081","72422"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":6.5,"signedError":2.044062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135380"],"selectedPollIds":["72176"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136668"],"selectedPollIds":["72809"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136321"],"selectedPollIds":["72646"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":5.7,"signedError":1.244062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136572"],"selectedPollIds":["72790"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"144","pollster":"TIPP Insights","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-0.455938,"selectedQuestionIds":["136725"],"selectedPollIds":["72863"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"385","pollster":"The Winston Group","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135470"],"selectedPollIds":["72213"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"666","pollster":"Tufts University Public Opinion Lab","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["135435"],"selectedPollIds":["72204"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"343","pollster":"University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":10.89,"signedError":6.434062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136724"],"selectedPollIds":["72808"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":5.544062,"selectedQuestionIds":["136475"],"selectedPollIds":["72714"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6211","race":"2020_Pres-G_AK","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":42.771952,"actualRep":52.833143,"actualMargin":-10.061191,"actualDRShare":95.605096,"signedError":1.061191,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.061191,"individualPollMAE":1.061191,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.061191,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":1.061191,"selectedQuestionIds":["135418"],"selectedPollIds":["72193"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":1.061191,"selectedQuestionIds":["136719"],"selectedPollIds":["72860"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6212","race":"2020_Pres-G_AL","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":37.675,"pollRep":58.275,"pollMargin":-20.6,"actualDem":36.56999,"actualRep":62.031643,"actualMargin":-25.461653,"actualDRShare":98.601633,"signedError":4.861653,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.861653,"individualPollMAE":5.130826,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-25","2020-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-25.461653,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"588","pollster":"Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":-19.2,"signedError":6.261653,"selectedQuestionIds":["135489"],"selectedPollIds":["72223"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":5.461653,"selectedQuestionIds":["136229"],"selectedPollIds":["72591"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":-0.538347,"selectedQuestionIds":["136718"],"selectedPollIds":["72859"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-17.2,"signedError":8.261653,"selectedQuestionIds":["136545"],"selectedPollIds":["72763"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6213","race":"2020_Pres-G_AR","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":61.0,"pollMargin":-23.0,"actualDem":34.775062,"actualRep":62.39573,"actualMargin":-27.620668,"actualDRShare":97.170792,"signedError":4.620668,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.620668,"individualPollMAE":4.620668,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-27.620668,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":4.620668,"selectedQuestionIds":["136717"],"selectedPollIds":["72858"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6214","race":"2020_Pres-G_AZ","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":48.838095,"pollRep":46.233333,"pollMargin":2.604762,"actualDem":49.364691,"actualRep":49.055981,"actualMargin":0.30871,"actualDRShare":98.420672,"signedError":2.296052,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.296052,"individualPollMAE":3.319247,"n":21,"pollsters":21,"sourceQuestions":23,"selectedQuestions":21,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.30871,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-2.3,"signedError":-2.60871,"selectedQuestionIds":["136058"],"selectedPollIds":["72500"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["136497"],"selectedPollIds":["72726"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"73","pollster":"Data Orbital","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":0.6,"signedError":0.29129,"selectedQuestionIds":["136300"],"selectedPollIds":["72632"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["136220"],"selectedPollIds":["72585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":2.1,"signedError":1.79129,"selectedQuestionIds":["136049"],"selectedPollIds":["72495"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["135320"],"selectedPollIds":["72158"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["136342"],"selectedPollIds":["72653"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.30871,"selectedQuestionIds":["136324"],"selectedPollIds":["72649"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":2.3,"signedError":1.99129,"selectedQuestionIds":["136250"],"selectedPollIds":["72602"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"235","pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["135085"],"selectedPollIds":["72055"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"490","pollster":"Patinkin Research Strategies","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":6.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["135108"],"selectedPollIds":["72067"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.30871,"selectedQuestionIds":["135481"],"selectedPollIds":["72217"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"562","pollster":"Redfield & Wilton Strategies","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["136506"],"selectedPollIds":["72732"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["135881"],"selectedPollIds":["72417"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["136716"],"selectedPollIds":["72857"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":-0.4,"signedError":-0.70871,"selectedQuestionIds":["134439"],"selectedPollIds":["71750"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":4.9,"signedError":4.59129,"selectedQuestionIds":["136546"],"selectedPollIds":["72764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"630","pollster":"The Justice Collaborative Institute","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["135336"],"selectedPollIds":["72161"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["136016"],"selectedPollIds":["72478"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-2.5,"signedError":-2.80871,"selectedQuestionIds":["135836"],"selectedPollIds":["72396"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"516","pollster":"Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.69129,"selectedQuestionIds":["135274"],"selectedPollIds":["72147"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6215","race":"2020_Pres-G_CA","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":62.75,"pollRep":32.575,"pollMargin":30.175,"actualDem":63.48436,"actualRep":34.320254,"actualMargin":29.164106,"actualDRShare":97.804613,"signedError":1.010894,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.010894,"individualPollMAE":3.825,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-25","2020-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":29.163223,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.000883,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"578","pollster":"David Binder Research","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":31.0,"signedError":1.835894,"selectedQuestionIds":["136336"],"selectedPollIds":["72651"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":-3.164106,"selectedQuestionIds":["136715"],"selectedPollIds":["72856"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":26.7,"signedError":-2.464106,"selectedQuestionIds":["135637"],"selectedPollIds":["72297"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"648","pollster":"University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":37.0,"signedError":7.835894,"selectedQuestionIds":["138268"],"selectedPollIds":["73703"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6216","race":"2020_Pres-G_CO","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":54.24,"pollRep":41.72,"pollMargin":12.52,"actualDem":55.399542,"actualRep":41.897924,"actualMargin":13.501618,"actualDRShare":97.297466,"signedError":-0.981618,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.981618,"individualPollMAE":1.460971,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.501618,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-1.501618,"selectedQuestionIds":["136218"],"selectedPollIds":["72584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"455","pollster":"Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-1.501618,"selectedQuestionIds":["136210"],"selectedPollIds":["72580"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":12.9,"signedError":-0.601618,"selectedQuestionIds":["136251"],"selectedPollIds":["72603"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-2.501618,"selectedQuestionIds":["136714"],"selectedPollIds":["72855"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":14.7,"signedError":1.198382,"selectedQuestionIds":["136559"],"selectedPollIds":["72777"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6217","race":"2020_Pres-G_CT","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":62.05,"pollRep":35.85,"pollMargin":26.2,"actualDem":59.260732,"actualRep":39.187118,"actualMargin":20.073613,"actualDRShare":98.44785,"signedError":6.126387,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.126387,"individualPollMAE":6.126387,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":20.073855,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.000242,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":1.926387,"selectedQuestionIds":["136713"],"selectedPollIds":["72854"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":30.4,"signedError":10.326387,"selectedQuestionIds":["136560"],"selectedPollIds":["72778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6218","race":"2020_Pres-G_DC","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"DC","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":94.0,"pollRep":5.0,"pollMargin":89.0,"actualDem":92.149694,"actualRep":5.397321,"actualMargin":86.752373,"actualDRShare":97.547015,"signedError":2.247627,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.247627,"individualPollMAE":2.247627,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":86.752373,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":89.0,"signedError":2.247627,"selectedQuestionIds":["136712"],"selectedPollIds":["72853"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6219","race":"2020_Pres-G_DE","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"DE","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":60.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":22.0,"actualDem":58.743006,"actualRep":39.774877,"actualMargin":18.968129,"actualDRShare":98.517883,"signedError":3.031871,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.031871,"individualPollMAE":3.031871,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":18.968919,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.00079,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":3.031871,"selectedQuestionIds":["136711"],"selectedPollIds":["72852"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"622","race":"2016_Pres-G_MD","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":57.345,"pollRep":30.8,"pollMargin":26.545,"actualDem":60.328549,"actualRep":33.918616,"actualMargin":26.409932,"actualDRShare":94.247165,"signedError":0.135068,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.135068,"individualPollMAE":4.455,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":26.41644,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.006507,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":22.09,"signedError":-4.319932,"selectedQuestionIds":["76288"],"selectedPollIds":["48707"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":31.0,"signedError":4.590068,"selectedQuestionIds":["76570"],"selectedPollIds":["48880"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6220","race":"2020_Pres-G_FL","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":49.228667,"pollRep":46.984333,"pollMargin":2.244333,"actualDem":47.861451,"actualRep":51.21982,"actualMargin":-3.358369,"actualDRShare":99.08127,"signedError":5.602702,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.602702,"individualPollMAE":5.632144,"n":30,"pollsters":30,"sourceQuestions":41,"selectedQuestions":30,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.358369,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":1.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136004"],"selectedPollIds":["72476"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"635","pollster":"AYTM","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136308"],"selectedPollIds":["72637"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":0.1,"signedError":3.458369,"selectedQuestionIds":["135844"],"selectedPollIds":["72399"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136498"],"selectedPollIds":["72727"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136490"],"selectedPollIds":["72721"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":5.8,"signedError":9.158369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136082"],"selectedPollIds":["72516"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"97","pollster":"Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":2.03,"signedError":5.388369,"selectedQuestionIds":["135047"],"selectedPollIds":["72038"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"108","pollster":"Frederick Polls","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136303"],"selectedPollIds":["72634"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["135521"],"selectedPollIds":["72235"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-1.2,"signedError":2.158369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136491"],"selectedPollIds":["72722"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":7.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136361"],"selectedPollIds":["72658"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":7.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["135376"],"selectedPollIds":["72175"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":7.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["135473"],"selectedPollIds":["72214"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":6.1,"signedError":9.458369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136252"],"selectedPollIds":["72604"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":10.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["135692"],"selectedPollIds":["72327"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":8.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136346"],"selectedPollIds":["72656"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"555","pollster":"RMG Research","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":7.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136022"],"selectedPollIds":["72482"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":4.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136056"],"selectedPollIds":["72499"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"562","pollster":"Redfield & Wilton Strategies","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":7.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136507"],"selectedPollIds":["72733"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"314","pollster":"St. Pete Polls","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":1.1,"signedError":4.458369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136024"],"selectedPollIds":["72484"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":3.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136710"],"selectedPollIds":["72851"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136044"],"selectedPollIds":["72491"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":7.5,"signedError":10.858369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136547"],"selectedPollIds":["72765"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":3.7,"signedError":7.058369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136225"],"selectedPollIds":["72589"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136017"],"selectedPollIds":["72479"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"677","pollster":"The Political Matrix/The Listener Group","date":"2020-11-02","pollMargin":-3.8,"signedError":-0.441631,"selectedQuestionIds":["142781"],"selectedPollIds":["74946"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-2.1,"signedError":1.258369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136610"],"selectedPollIds":["72806"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"516","pollster":"Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["135275"],"selectedPollIds":["72148"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-2.9,"signedError":0.458369,"selectedQuestionIds":["136593"],"selectedPollIds":["72795"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.358369,"selectedQuestionIds":["134745"],"selectedPollIds":["71887"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6221","race":"2020_Pres-G_GA","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":48.78,"pollRep":47.913333,"pollMargin":0.866667,"actualDem":49.473056,"actualRep":49.237474,"actualMargin":0.235582,"actualDRShare":98.71053,"signedError":0.631085,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.631085,"individualPollMAE":2.944295,"n":15,"pollsters":15,"sourceQuestions":18,"selectedQuestions":15,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.235582,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"635","pollster":"AYTM","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.764418,"selectedQuestionIds":["136310"],"selectedPollIds":["72639"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-2.2,"signedError":-2.435582,"selectedQuestionIds":["136231"],"selectedPollIds":["72593"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.764418,"selectedQuestionIds":["135050"],"selectedPollIds":["72040"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.764418,"selectedQuestionIds":["136512"],"selectedPollIds":["72738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-0.6,"signedError":-0.835582,"selectedQuestionIds":["136083"],"selectedPollIds":["72517"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.235582,"selectedQuestionIds":["136208"],"selectedPollIds":["72579"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-4.1,"signedError":-4.335582,"selectedQuestionIds":["136358"],"selectedPollIds":["72661"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.764418,"selectedQuestionIds":["135282"],"selectedPollIds":["72146"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":2.4,"signedError":2.164418,"selectedQuestionIds":["136253"],"selectedPollIds":["72605"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.764418,"selectedQuestionIds":["135402"],"selectedPollIds":["72187"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.764418,"selectedQuestionIds":["136709"],"selectedPollIds":["72850"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":9.3,"signedError":9.064418,"selectedQuestionIds":["136548"],"selectedPollIds":["72766"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-4.3,"signedError":-4.535582,"selectedQuestionIds":["136721"],"selectedPollIds":["72862"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-2.5,"signedError":-2.735582,"selectedQuestionIds":["136596"],"selectedPollIds":["72798"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.235582,"selectedQuestionIds":["134746"],"selectedPollIds":["71888"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6222","race":"2020_Pres-G_HI","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":67.0,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":36.0,"actualDem":63.733639,"actualRep":34.268864,"actualMargin":29.464775,"actualDRShare":98.002503,"signedError":6.535225,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.535225,"individualPollMAE":6.535225,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":29.464775,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":36.0,"signedError":6.535225,"selectedQuestionIds":["136708"],"selectedPollIds":["72849"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6223","race":"2020_Pres-G_IA","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":47.05,"pollRep":48.04,"pollMargin":-0.99,"actualDem":44.891716,"actualRep":53.089325,"actualMargin":-8.197609,"actualDRShare":97.981041,"signedError":7.207609,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.207609,"individualPollMAE":7.207609,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2020-10-23","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.197609,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":8.197609,"selectedQuestionIds":["136536"],"selectedPollIds":["72756"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":9.197609,"selectedQuestionIds":["136206"],"selectedPollIds":["72577"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":6.197609,"selectedQuestionIds":["136519"],"selectedPollIds":["72741"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-1.2,"signedError":6.997609,"selectedQuestionIds":["136037"],"selectedPollIds":["72489"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-1.7,"signedError":6.497609,"selectedQuestionIds":["136043"],"selectedPollIds":["72492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":9.197609,"selectedQuestionIds":["136283"],"selectedPollIds":["72621"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":7.197609,"selectedQuestionIds":["135485"],"selectedPollIds":["72220"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"269","pollster":"RABA Research","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":12.197609,"selectedQuestionIds":["135104"],"selectedPollIds":["72063"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.197609,"selectedQuestionIds":["135894"],"selectedPollIds":["72420"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":5.197609,"selectedQuestionIds":["136707"],"selectedPollIds":["72848"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6224","race":"2020_Pres-G_ID","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":33.06945,"actualRep":63.843449,"actualMargin":-30.773999,"actualDRShare":96.912899,"signedError":12.773999,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.773999,"individualPollMAE":12.773999,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-30.771163,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.002836,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":12.773999,"selectedQuestionIds":["136706"],"selectedPollIds":["72847"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6225","race":"2020_Pres-G_IL","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":55.55,"pollRep":39.95,"pollMargin":15.6,"actualDem":57.541636,"actualRep":40.553444,"actualMargin":16.988192,"actualDRShare":98.09508,"signedError":-1.388192,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.388192,"individualPollMAE":1.9,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.988192,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":0.011808,"selectedQuestionIds":["136287"],"selectedPollIds":["72623"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":1.011808,"selectedQuestionIds":["136705"],"selectedPollIds":["72846"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":11.5,"signedError":-5.488192,"selectedQuestionIds":["136549"],"selectedPollIds":["72767"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":15.9,"signedError":-1.088192,"selectedQuestionIds":["136354"],"selectedPollIds":["72660"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6226","race":"2020_Pres-G_IN","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":42.25,"pollRep":52.65,"pollMargin":-10.4,"actualDem":40.963138,"actualRep":57.030572,"actualMargin":-16.067434,"actualDRShare":97.99371,"signedError":5.667434,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.667434,"individualPollMAE":5.667434,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-20","2020-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-16.059465,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.007969,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-11.4,"signedError":4.667434,"selectedQuestionIds":["136254"],"selectedPollIds":["72606"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"517","pollster":"Ragnar Research Partners","date":"2020-10-20","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":8.067434,"selectedQuestionIds":["135034"],"selectedPollIds":["72031"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":6.067434,"selectedQuestionIds":["136704"],"selectedPollIds":["72845"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-12.2,"signedError":3.867434,"selectedQuestionIds":["136550"],"selectedPollIds":["72768"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6227","race":"2020_Pres-G_KS","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":42.5,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-12.5,"actualDem":41.508647,"actualRep":56.143658,"actualMargin":-14.635011,"actualDRShare":97.652305,"signedError":2.135011,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.135011,"individualPollMAE":2.135011,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.652959,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.017948,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":0.635011,"selectedQuestionIds":["136492"],"selectedPollIds":["72723"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":3.635011,"selectedQuestionIds":["136703"],"selectedPollIds":["72844"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6228","race":"2020_Pres-G_KY","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":40.1,"pollRep":55.333333,"pollMargin":-15.233333,"actualDem":36.151515,"actualRep":62.086572,"actualMargin":-25.935057,"actualDRShare":98.238087,"signedError":10.701724,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.701724,"individualPollMAE":10.701724,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-25.935057,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"632","pollster":"Bluegrass Community and Technical College","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":-13.2,"signedError":12.735057,"selectedQuestionIds":["135526"],"selectedPollIds":["72239"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":6.935057,"selectedQuestionIds":["136702"],"selectedPollIds":["72843"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-13.5,"signedError":12.435057,"selectedQuestionIds":["136561"],"selectedPollIds":["72779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6229","race":"2020_Pres-G_LA","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"LA","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":59.133333,"pollMargin":-22.133333,"actualDem":39.851457,"actualRep":58.460882,"actualMargin":-18.609426,"actualDRShare":98.312339,"signedError":-3.523908,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.523908,"individualPollMAE":4.263525,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-18.609426,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":-7.390574,"selectedQuestionIds":["136701"],"selectedPollIds":["72842"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-17.5,"signedError":1.109426,"selectedQuestionIds":["136562"],"selectedPollIds":["72780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"358","pollster":"University of New Orleans Survey Research Center","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":-22.9,"signedError":-4.290574,"selectedQuestionIds":["135083"],"selectedPollIds":["72053"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"623","race":"2016_Pres-G_ME","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":44.0825,"pollRep":38.02,"pollMargin":6.0625,"actualDem":46.345214,"actualRep":43.476678,"actualMargin":2.868536,"actualDRShare":89.821892,"signedError":3.193964,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.193964,"individualPollMAE":3.193964,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.960449,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.091913,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.131464,"selectedQuestionIds":["74932"],"selectedPollIds":["47879"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":7.25,"signedError":4.381464,"selectedQuestionIds":["76371"],"selectedPollIds":["48786"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"180","pollster":"Maine People's Resource Center","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.131464,"selectedQuestionIds":["75062"],"selectedPollIds":["47997"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":5.131464,"selectedQuestionIds":["76569"],"selectedPollIds":["48879"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6230","race":"2020_Pres-G_MA","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":65.5,"pollRep":28.5,"pollMargin":37.0,"actualDem":65.600063,"actualRep":32.141911,"actualMargin":33.458152,"actualDRShare":97.741974,"signedError":3.541848,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.541848,"individualPollMAE":3.541848,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":33.458152,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"198","pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":34.0,"signedError":0.541848,"selectedQuestionIds":["136477"],"selectedPollIds":["72715"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":40.0,"signedError":6.541848,"selectedQuestionIds":["136700"],"selectedPollIds":["72841"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6231","race":"2020_Pres-G_MD","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":63.666667,"pollRep":31.666667,"pollMargin":32.0,"actualDem":65.360665,"actualRep":32.150292,"actualMargin":33.210373,"actualDRShare":97.510956,"signedError":-1.210373,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.210373,"individualPollMAE":4.196542,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":33.210373,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"121","pollster":"Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":25.1,"signedError":-8.110373,"selectedQuestionIds":["135032"],"selectedPollIds":["72029"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":35.0,"signedError":1.789627,"selectedQuestionIds":["136699"],"selectedPollIds":["72840"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":35.9,"signedError":2.689627,"selectedQuestionIds":["136563"],"selectedPollIds":["72781"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6232","race":"2020_Pres-G_ME","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":53.26,"pollRep":40.58,"pollMargin":12.68,"actualDem":53.09246,"actualRep":44.021253,"actualMargin":9.071207,"actualDRShare":97.113713,"signedError":3.608793,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.608793,"individualPollMAE":3.608793,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2020-10-23","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.071207,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":2.928793,"selectedQuestionIds":["136602"],"selectedPollIds":["72801"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"593","pollster":"Colby College","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":3.928793,"selectedQuestionIds":["135127"],"selectedPollIds":["72076"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":11.4,"signedError":2.328793,"selectedQuestionIds":["136075"],"selectedPollIds":["72511"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":4.928793,"selectedQuestionIds":["136698"],"selectedPollIds":["72839"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":3.928793,"selectedQuestionIds":["135387"],"selectedPollIds":["72179"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6233","race":"2020_Pres-G_MI","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":51.2,"pollRep":43.656522,"pollMargin":7.543478,"actualDem":50.620818,"actualRep":47.837291,"actualMargin":2.783528,"actualDRShare":98.458109,"signedError":4.759951,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.759951,"individualPollMAE":5.528134,"n":23,"pollsters":23,"sourceQuestions":28,"selectedQuestions":23,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.783528,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["135122"],"selectedPollIds":["72074"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":2.4,"signedError":-0.383528,"selectedQuestionIds":["136232"],"selectedPollIds":["72594"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136499"],"selectedPollIds":["72728"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136025"],"selectedPollIds":["72483"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":6.5,"signedError":3.716472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136035"],"selectedPollIds":["72487"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"117","pollster":"Glengariff Group","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":7.7,"signedError":4.916472,"selectedQuestionIds":["135106"],"selectedPollIds":["72065"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":10.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["134748"],"selectedPollIds":["71890"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":2.1,"signedError":-0.683528,"selectedQuestionIds":["136072"],"selectedPollIds":["72509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":7.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136073"],"selectedPollIds":["72508"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"585","pollster":"Kiaer Research","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":12.9,"signedError":10.116472,"selectedQuestionIds":["135661"],"selectedPollIds":["72311"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":7.1,"signedError":4.316472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136046"],"selectedPollIds":["72493"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":7.3,"signedError":4.516472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136255"],"selectedPollIds":["72607"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":7.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["135712"],"selectedPollIds":["72333"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"555","pollster":"RMG Research","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["135717"],"selectedPollIds":["72335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"562","pollster":"Redfield & Wilton Strategies","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":10.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136508"],"selectedPollIds":["72734"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136288"],"selectedPollIds":["72624"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":9.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["135876"],"selectedPollIds":["72416"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136697"],"selectedPollIds":["72838"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":8.7,"signedError":5.916472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136551"],"selectedPollIds":["72769"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":11.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["136223"],"selectedPollIds":["72587"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":5.216472,"selectedQuestionIds":["135298"],"selectedPollIds":["72152"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-2.5,"signedError":-5.283528,"selectedQuestionIds":["136235"],"selectedPollIds":["72595"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":0.3,"signedError":-2.483528,"selectedQuestionIds":["136598"],"selectedPollIds":["72800"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6234","race":"2020_Pres-G_MN","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":52.036364,"pollRep":42.236364,"pollMargin":9.8,"actualDem":52.395099,"actualRep":45.284942,"actualMargin":7.110157,"actualDRShare":97.680042,"signedError":2.689843,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.689843,"individualPollMAE":3.784446,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2020-10-20","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.110157,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.889843,"selectedQuestionIds":["136517"],"selectedPollIds":["72740"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":6.889843,"selectedQuestionIds":["135087"],"selectedPollIds":["72056"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":9.3,"signedError":2.189843,"selectedQuestionIds":["136256"],"selectedPollIds":["72608"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":3.889843,"selectedQuestionIds":["135859"],"selectedPollIds":["72405"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.889843,"selectedQuestionIds":["136289"],"selectedPollIds":["72625"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"312","pollster":"St. Cloud State University","date":"2020-10-20","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":7.889843,"selectedQuestionIds":["136061"],"selectedPollIds":["72503"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":7.889843,"selectedQuestionIds":["136696"],"selectedPollIds":["72837"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-2.110157,"selectedQuestionIds":["135365"],"selectedPollIds":["72171"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":9.3,"signedError":2.189843,"selectedQuestionIds":["136564"],"selectedPollIds":["72782"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.889843,"selectedQuestionIds":["136222"],"selectedPollIds":["72586"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":3.2,"signedError":-3.910157,"selectedQuestionIds":["135723"],"selectedPollIds":["72339"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"6235","race":"2020_Pres-G_MO","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":43.825,"pollRep":52.725,"pollMargin":-8.9,"actualDem":41.408782,"actualRep":56.799656,"actualMargin":-15.390874,"actualDRShare":98.208438,"signedError":6.490874,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.490874,"individualPollMAE":6.490874,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-28"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.390874,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-9.4,"signedError":5.990874,"selectedQuestionIds":["136257"],"selectedPollIds":["72609"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":10.390874,"selectedQuestionIds":["135857"],"selectedPollIds":["72404"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":5.390874,"selectedQuestionIds":["136695"],"selectedPollIds":["72836"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-11.2,"signedError":4.190874,"selectedQuestionIds":["136565"],"selectedPollIds":["72783"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6236","race":"2020_Pres-G_MS","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MS","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":39.666667,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-17.333333,"actualDem":41.057606,"actualRep":57.602955,"actualMargin":-16.545348,"actualDRShare":98.660561,"signedError":-0.787985,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.787985,"individualPollMAE":4.181783,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-25","2020-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-16.545348,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":2.545348,"selectedQuestionIds":["135051"],"selectedPollIds":["72041"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":2.545348,"selectedQuestionIds":["136515"],"selectedPollIds":["72739"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":-7.454652,"selectedQuestionIds":["136694"],"selectedPollIds":["72835"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6237","race":"2020_Pres-G_MT","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":45.75,"pollRep":50.75,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":40.549369,"actualRep":56.918469,"actualMargin":-16.3691,"actualDRShare":97.467839,"signedError":11.3691,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.3691,"individualPollMAE":11.3691,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-16.369154,"outcomeMarginCorrection":5.4e-05,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":11.3691,"selectedQuestionIds":["136544"],"selectedPollIds":["72762"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"216","pollster":"Montana State University Billings","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":9.3691,"selectedQuestionIds":["135338"],"selectedPollIds":["72162"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":14.3691,"selectedQuestionIds":["135098"],"selectedPollIds":["72062"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":10.3691,"selectedQuestionIds":["136693"],"selectedPollIds":["72834"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6238","race":"2020_Pres-G_NC","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":48.761429,"pollRep":47.373214,"pollMargin":1.388214,"actualDem":48.586194,"actualRep":49.934351,"actualMargin":-1.348156,"actualDRShare":98.520545,"signedError":2.736371,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.736371,"individualPollMAE":3.165601,"n":28,"pollsters":28,"sourceQuestions":32,"selectedQuestions":28,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.348156,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.651844,"selectedQuestionIds":["136059"],"selectedPollIds":["72501"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"591","pollster":"Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS)","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-2.15,"signedError":-0.801844,"selectedQuestionIds":["135682"],"selectedPollIds":["72321"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["136500"],"selectedPollIds":["72729"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["136212"],"selectedPollIds":["72581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"523","pollster":"East Carolina University Center for Survey Research","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":2.72,"signedError":4.068156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135709"],"selectedPollIds":["72332"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":0.3,"signedError":1.648156,"selectedQuestionIds":["136081"],"selectedPollIds":["72515"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"108","pollster":"Frederick Polls","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["136304"],"selectedPollIds":["72635"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135302"],"selectedPollIds":["72153"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"132","pollster":"Harper Polling","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135268"],"selectedPollIds":["72139"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135522"],"selectedPollIds":["72236"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-4.4,"signedError":-3.051844,"selectedQuestionIds":["136053"],"selectedPollIds":["72497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["136362"],"selectedPollIds":["72659"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":7.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135702"],"selectedPollIds":["72331"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"204","pollster":"Meeting Street Insights","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135837"],"selectedPollIds":["72397"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":0.7,"signedError":2.048156,"selectedQuestionIds":["136258"],"selectedPollIds":["72610"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":5.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135090"],"selectedPollIds":["72057"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"555","pollster":"RMG Research","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135084"],"selectedPollIds":["72054"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135691"],"selectedPollIds":["72326"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"562","pollster":"Redfield & Wilton Strategies","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["136509"],"selectedPollIds":["72735"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":7.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135883"],"selectedPollIds":["72418"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["136692"],"selectedPollIds":["72833"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135097"],"selectedPollIds":["72061"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":5.9,"signedError":7.248156,"selectedQuestionIds":["136552"],"selectedPollIds":["72770"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135476"],"selectedPollIds":["72215"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.651844,"selectedQuestionIds":["136048"],"selectedPollIds":["72494"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["135447"],"selectedPollIds":["72207"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-2.2,"signedError":-0.851844,"selectedQuestionIds":["136594"],"selectedPollIds":["72796"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":5.348156,"selectedQuestionIds":["134747"],"selectedPollIds":["71889"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6239","race":"2020_Pres-G_ND","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"ND","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-20.0,"actualDem":31.777451,"actualRep":65.120268,"actualMargin":-33.342817,"actualDRShare":96.897719,"signedError":13.342817,"absoluteAverageMiss":13.342817,"individualPollMAE":13.342817,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-33.357286,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.014469,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":13.342817,"selectedQuestionIds":["136691"],"selectedPollIds":["72832"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"624","race":"2016_Pres-G_MI","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":45.752222,"pollRep":42.561111,"pollMargin":3.191111,"actualDem":47.274531,"actualRep":47.497564,"actualMargin":-0.223033,"actualDRShare":94.772095,"signedError":3.414144,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.414144,"individualPollMAE":3.742359,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":17,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.222756,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.000277,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.223033,"selectedQuestionIds":["75719"],"selectedPollIds":["48335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":7.223033,"selectedQuestionIds":["74626"],"selectedPollIds":["47653"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":5.223033,"selectedQuestionIds":["76357"],"selectedPollIds":["48774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":1.42,"signedError":1.643033,"selectedQuestionIds":["76277"],"selectedPollIds":["48696"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":6.223033,"selectedQuestionIds":["76462"],"selectedPollIds":["48859"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":5.223033,"selectedQuestionIds":["75741"],"selectedPollIds":["48348"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"318","pollster":"Strategic National","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.223033,"selectedQuestionIds":["75735"],"selectedPollIds":["48345"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.223033,"selectedQuestionIds":["76572"],"selectedPollIds":["48882"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":-1.7,"signedError":-1.476967,"selectedQuestionIds":["76258"],"selectedPollIds":["48686"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"6240","race":"2020_Pres-G_NE","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-13.0,"actualDem":39.166631,"actualRep":58.224163,"actualMargin":-19.057532,"actualDRShare":97.390794,"signedError":6.057532,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.057532,"individualPollMAE":6.057532,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.057532,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":6.057532,"selectedQuestionIds":["136690"],"selectedPollIds":["72831"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6241","race":"2020_Pres-G_NH","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":43.2,"pollMargin":10.8,"actualDem":52.708306,"actualRep":45.35571,"actualMargin":7.352596,"actualDRShare":98.064016,"signedError":3.447404,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.447404,"individualPollMAE":3.447404,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.352596,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":11.647404,"selectedQuestionIds":["135493"],"selectedPollIds":["72226"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"494","pollster":"Saint Anselm College Survey Center","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.647404,"selectedQuestionIds":["135514"],"selectedPollIds":["72233"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":1.647404,"selectedQuestionIds":["136689"],"selectedPollIds":["72830"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":2.647404,"selectedQuestionIds":["135448"],"selectedPollIds":["72208"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.647404,"selectedQuestionIds":["135502"],"selectedPollIds":["72230"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6242","race":"2020_Pres-G_NJ","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":58.725,"pollRep":38.25,"pollMargin":20.475,"actualDem":57.334315,"actualRep":41.396435,"actualMargin":15.93788,"actualDRShare":98.73075,"signedError":4.53712,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.53712,"individualPollMAE":4.53712,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.937673,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.000207,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":2.06212,"selectedQuestionIds":["136290"],"selectedPollIds":["72626"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":8.06212,"selectedQuestionIds":["135437"],"selectedPollIds":["72205"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":5.06212,"selectedQuestionIds":["136688"],"selectedPollIds":["72829"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":18.9,"signedError":2.96212,"selectedQuestionIds":["136553"],"selectedPollIds":["72771"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6243","race":"2020_Pres-G_NM","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":13.0,"actualDem":54.289286,"actualRep":43.496669,"actualMargin":10.792617,"actualDRShare":97.785955,"signedError":2.207383,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.207383,"individualPollMAE":2.207383,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.792617,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":1.207383,"selectedQuestionIds":["136015"],"selectedPollIds":["72400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":3.207383,"selectedQuestionIds":["136687"],"selectedPollIds":["72828"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6244","race":"2020_Pres-G_NV","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":49.471429,"pollRep":45.328571,"pollMargin":4.142857,"actualDem":50.056782,"actualRep":47.666247,"actualMargin":2.390535,"actualDRShare":97.723029,"signedError":1.752323,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.752323,"individualPollMAE":3.515638,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2020-10-20","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.390535,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.609465,"selectedQuestionIds":["136489"],"selectedPollIds":["72720"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":1.7,"signedError":-0.690535,"selectedQuestionIds":["136050"],"selectedPollIds":["72496"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.609465,"selectedQuestionIds":["135509"],"selectedPollIds":["72231"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.390535,"selectedQuestionIds":["136686"],"selectedPollIds":["72827"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.609465,"selectedQuestionIds":["135076"],"selectedPollIds":["72049"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-0.7,"signedError":-3.090535,"selectedQuestionIds":["136720"],"selectedPollIds":["72861"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"609","pollster":"University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School","date":"2020-10-20","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":6.609465,"selectedQuestionIds":["135043"],"selectedPollIds":["72037"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6245","race":"2020_Pres-G_NY","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":63.133333,"pollRep":33.6,"pollMargin":29.533333,"actualDem":60.86771,"actualRep":37.739926,"actualMargin":23.127784,"actualDRShare":98.607637,"signedError":6.405549,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.405549,"individualPollMAE":6.405549,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-25","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":22.057852,"outcomeMarginCorrection":1.069932,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":4.872216,"selectedQuestionIds":["136291"],"selectedPollIds":["72627"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":28.0,"signedError":4.872216,"selectedQuestionIds":["136685"],"selectedPollIds":["72826"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":32.6,"signedError":9.472216,"selectedQuestionIds":["135645"],"selectedPollIds":["72305"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6246","race":"2020_Pres-G_OH","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":46.808333,"pollRep":48.933333,"pollMargin":-2.125,"actualDem":45.239338,"actualRep":53.2713,"actualMargin":-8.031962,"actualDRShare":98.510638,"signedError":5.906962,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.906962,"individualPollMAE":5.906962,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.031962,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-3.9,"signedError":4.131962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136347"],"selectedPollIds":["72657"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":7.031962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136207"],"selectedPollIds":["72578"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":0.9,"signedError":8.931962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136036"],"selectedPollIds":["72488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":6.031962,"selectedQuestionIds":["135416"],"selectedPollIds":["72192"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-2.6,"signedError":5.431962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136259"],"selectedPollIds":["72611"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":12.031962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136345"],"selectedPollIds":["72655"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":4.031962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136318"],"selectedPollIds":["72643"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":8.031962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136292"],"selectedPollIds":["72628"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":4.031962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136684"],"selectedPollIds":["72825"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-5.2,"signedError":2.831962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136554"],"selectedPollIds":["72772"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-4.8,"signedError":3.231962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136267"],"selectedPollIds":["72616"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-2.9,"signedError":5.131962,"selectedQuestionIds":["136595"],"selectedPollIds":["72797"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6247","race":"2020_Pres-G_OK","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":35.0,"pollRep":65.0,"pollMargin":-30.0,"actualDem":32.286174,"actualRep":65.373272,"actualMargin":-33.087098,"actualDRShare":97.659446,"signedError":3.087098,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.087098,"individualPollMAE":3.087098,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-33.087098,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":3.087098,"selectedQuestionIds":["136683"],"selectedPollIds":["72824"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6248","race":"2020_Pres-G_OR","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":59.7,"pollRep":38.1,"pollMargin":21.6,"actualDem":56.453319,"actualRep":40.367246,"actualMargin":16.086073,"actualDRShare":96.820565,"signedError":5.513927,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.513927,"individualPollMAE":5.513927,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.086073,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":3.913927,"selectedQuestionIds":["136682"],"selectedPollIds":["72823"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":23.2,"signedError":7.113927,"selectedQuestionIds":["136566"],"selectedPollIds":["72784"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6249","race":"2020_Pres-G_PA","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":50.4,"pollRep":45.822581,"pollMargin":4.577419,"actualDem":49.852111,"actualRep":48.69087,"actualMargin":1.161241,"actualDRShare":98.542982,"signedError":3.416178,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.416178,"individualPollMAE":4.255288,"n":31,"pollsters":31,"sourceQuestions":36,"selectedQuestions":31,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.164884,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.003643,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136006"],"selectedPollIds":["72477"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"635","pollster":"AYTM","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":0.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136309"],"selectedPollIds":["72638"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-1.1,"signedError":-2.261241,"selectedQuestionIds":["136002"],"selectedPollIds":["72475"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":2.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136501"],"selectedPollIds":["72730"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["135049"],"selectedPollIds":["72039"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136488"],"selectedPollIds":["72719"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":4.9,"signedError":3.738759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136074"],"selectedPollIds":["72510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":4.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["135367"],"selectedPollIds":["72172"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"108","pollster":"Frederick Polls","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":2.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136302"],"selectedPollIds":["72633"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["134618"],"selectedPollIds":["71824"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["135523"],"selectedPollIds":["72237"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-1.3,"signedError":-2.461241,"selectedQuestionIds":["136080"],"selectedPollIds":["72514"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":4.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136070"],"selectedPollIds":["72507"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136326"],"selectedPollIds":["72650"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136266"],"selectedPollIds":["72599"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":8.7,"signedError":7.538759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136260"],"selectedPollIds":["72612"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["135851"],"selectedPollIds":["72401"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["135693"],"selectedPollIds":["72328"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["135487"],"selectedPollIds":["72222"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"555","pollster":"RMG Research","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":4.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["135361"],"selectedPollIds":["72169"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":1.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136312"],"selectedPollIds":["72640"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"562","pollster":"Redfield & Wilton Strategies","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136510"],"selectedPollIds":["72736"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":4.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136293"],"selectedPollIds":["72629"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136681"],"selectedPollIds":["72822"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-0.8,"signedError":-1.961241,"selectedQuestionIds":["136322"],"selectedPollIds":["72647"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":1.5,"signedError":0.338759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136555"],"selectedPollIds":["72773"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":12.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136224"],"selectedPollIds":["72588"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":4.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["136018"],"selectedPollIds":["72480"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-1.9,"signedError":-3.061241,"selectedQuestionIds":["136313"],"selectedPollIds":["72641"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"516","pollster":"Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.838759,"selectedQuestionIds":["135277"],"selectedPollIds":["72150"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-2.1,"signedError":-3.261241,"selectedQuestionIds":["136597"],"selectedPollIds":["72799"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"625","race":"2016_Pres-G_MN","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":45.633333,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":8.633333,"actualDem":46.445034,"actualRep":44.925193,"actualMargin":1.519841,"actualDRShare":91.370227,"signedError":7.113492,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.113492,"individualPollMAE":7.113492,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.519841,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":7.9,"signedError":6.380159,"selectedQuestionIds":["76289"],"selectedPollIds":["48708"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"312","pollster":"St. Cloud State University","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":9.480159,"selectedQuestionIds":["124041"],"selectedPollIds":["66558"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.480159,"selectedQuestionIds":["76573"],"selectedPollIds":["48883"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6250","race":"2020_Pres-G_RI","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":62.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":26.0,"actualDem":59.388091,"actualRep":38.613095,"actualMargin":20.774997,"actualDRShare":98.001186,"signedError":5.225003,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.225003,"individualPollMAE":5.225003,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":20.774997,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":5.225003,"selectedQuestionIds":["136680"],"selectedPollIds":["72821"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6251","race":"2020_Pres-G_SC","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":43.8,"pollRep":52.075714,"pollMargin":-8.275714,"actualDem":43.430088,"actualRep":55.110294,"actualMargin":-11.680206,"actualDRShare":98.540382,"signedError":3.404492,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.404492,"individualPollMAE":4.272945,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2020-10-24","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.680206,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":2.680206,"selectedQuestionIds":["136494"],"selectedPollIds":["72724"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"523","pollster":"East Carolina University Center for Survey Research","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":-7.73,"signedError":3.950206,"selectedQuestionIds":["135318"],"selectedPollIds":["72157"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-6.6,"signedError":5.080206,"selectedQuestionIds":["136261"],"selectedPollIds":["72613"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"316","pollster":"Starboard Communications","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-7.3,"signedError":4.380206,"selectedQuestionIds":["135036"],"selectedPollIds":["72032"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-2.319794,"selectedQuestionIds":["136679"],"selectedPollIds":["72820"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-0.9,"signedError":10.780206,"selectedQuestionIds":["136567"],"selectedPollIds":["72785"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"245","pollster":"Øptimus Analytics","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-12.4,"signedError":-0.719794,"selectedQuestionIds":["136727"],"selectedPollIds":["72864"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6252","race":"2020_Pres-G_SD","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":38.666667,"pollRep":56.333333,"pollMargin":-17.666667,"actualDem":35.605252,"actualRep":61.76939,"actualMargin":-26.164138,"actualDRShare":97.374642,"signedError":8.497471,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.497471,"individualPollMAE":9.054713,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-20","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-26.164138,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2020-10-20","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":15.164138,"selectedQuestionIds":["134734"],"selectedPollIds":["71881"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"231","pollster":"Nielson Brothers Polling","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":11.164138,"selectedQuestionIds":["136592"],"selectedPollIds":["72794"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":-0.835862,"selectedQuestionIds":["136678"],"selectedPollIds":["72819"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6253","race":"2020_Pres-G_TN","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":42.95,"pollRep":55.8,"pollMargin":-12.85,"actualDem":37.451434,"actualRep":60.660294,"actualMargin":-23.20886,"actualDRShare":98.111728,"signedError":10.35886,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.35886,"individualPollMAE":10.35886,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-23.20886,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":14.20886,"selectedQuestionIds":["136677"],"selectedPollIds":["72818"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-16.7,"signedError":6.50886,"selectedQuestionIds":["136568"],"selectedPollIds":["72786"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6254","race":"2020_Pres-G_TX","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":47.025,"pollRep":49.166667,"pollMargin":-2.141667,"actualDem":46.47901,"actualRep":52.057604,"actualMargin":-5.578594,"actualDRShare":98.536614,"signedError":3.436927,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.436927,"individualPollMAE":3.436927,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.578594,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-2.7,"signedError":2.878594,"selectedQuestionIds":["136230"],"selectedPollIds":["72592"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["136216"],"selectedPollIds":["72583"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":4.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["136084"],"selectedPollIds":["72518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":0.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["136055"],"selectedPollIds":["72498"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["136262"],"selectedPollIds":["72614"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":7.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["135860"],"selectedPollIds":["72406"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"555","pollster":"RMG Research","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["135501"],"selectedPollIds":["72229"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["136676"],"selectedPollIds":["72817"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["136556"],"selectedPollIds":["72774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["134907"],"selectedPollIds":["71967"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":4.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["135446"],"selectedPollIds":["72206"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"516","pollster":"Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":2.578594,"selectedQuestionIds":["135276"],"selectedPollIds":["72149"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6255","race":"2020_Pres-G_UT","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":37.646049,"actualRep":58.129839,"actualMargin":-20.48379,"actualDRShare":95.775888,"signedError":8.48379,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.48379,"individualPollMAE":8.48379,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.48379,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":8.48379,"selectedQuestionIds":["136675"],"selectedPollIds":["72816"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6256","race":"2020_Pres-G_VA","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":54.66,"pollRep":41.66,"pollMargin":13.0,"actualDem":54.109517,"actualRep":43.995504,"actualMargin":10.114014,"actualDRShare":98.105021,"signedError":2.885986,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.885986,"individualPollMAE":2.885986,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.114014,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"50","pollster":"Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":1.885986,"selectedQuestionIds":["135129"],"selectedPollIds":["72078"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":0.885986,"selectedQuestionIds":["136228"],"selectedPollIds":["72590"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":0.885986,"selectedQuestionIds":["135855"],"selectedPollIds":["72402"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":5.885986,"selectedQuestionIds":["136674"],"selectedPollIds":["72815"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":4.885986,"selectedQuestionIds":["136557"],"selectedPollIds":["72775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6257","race":"2020_Pres-G_VT","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":71.0,"pollRep":26.0,"pollMargin":45.0,"actualDem":66.086417,"actualRep":30.673765,"actualMargin":35.412652,"actualDRShare":96.760182,"signedError":9.587348,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.587348,"individualPollMAE":9.587348,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":35.412652,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":45.0,"signedError":9.587348,"selectedQuestionIds":["136673"],"selectedPollIds":["72814"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6258","race":"2020_Pres-G_WA","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":60.45,"pollRep":36.8,"pollMargin":23.65,"actualDem":57.970301,"actualRep":38.766978,"actualMargin":19.203323,"actualDRShare":96.737279,"signedError":4.446677,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.446677,"individualPollMAE":4.446677,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":19.203323,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":27.0,"signedError":7.796677,"selectedQuestionIds":["136672"],"selectedPollIds":["72813"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":20.3,"signedError":1.096677,"selectedQuestionIds":["136569"],"selectedPollIds":["72787"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6259","race":"2020_Pres-G_WI","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":52.070588,"pollRep":43.858824,"pollMargin":8.211765,"actualDem":49.449537,"actualRep":48.822437,"actualMargin":0.6271,"actualDRShare":98.271974,"signedError":7.584665,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.584665,"individualPollMAE":7.611383,"n":17,"pollsters":17,"sourceQuestions":19,"selectedQuestions":17,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.6271,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":16.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["135124"],"selectedPollIds":["72075"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":1.9,"signedError":1.2729,"selectedQuestionIds":["136060"],"selectedPollIds":["72502"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":7.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["136502"],"selectedPollIds":["72731"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["136205"],"selectedPollIds":["72576"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":7.3,"signedError":6.6729,"selectedQuestionIds":["135866"],"selectedPollIds":["72409"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":10.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["134726"],"selectedPollIds":["71877"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":9.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["136067"],"selectedPollIds":["72505"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["135295"],"selectedPollIds":["72151"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":13.3,"signedError":12.6729,"selectedQuestionIds":["136263"],"selectedPollIds":["72615"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"562","pollster":"Redfield & Wilton Strategies","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":11.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["136511"],"selectedPollIds":["72737"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":7.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["136294"],"selectedPollIds":["72630"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":7.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["135874"],"selectedPollIds":["72415"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":9.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["136671"],"selectedPollIds":["72812"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["135892"],"selectedPollIds":["72419"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":9.7,"signedError":9.0729,"selectedQuestionIds":["136558"],"selectedPollIds":["72776"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":10.3729,"selectedQuestionIds":["136019"],"selectedPollIds":["72481"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":0.4,"signedError":-0.2271,"selectedQuestionIds":["135722"],"selectedPollIds":["72338"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"626","race":"2016_Pres-G_MO","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":39.123,"pollRep":49.751,"pollMargin":-10.628,"actualDem":38.135231,"actualRep":56.772348,"actualMargin":-18.637117,"actualDRShare":94.907579,"signedError":8.009117,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.009117,"individualPollMAE":8.009117,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-18.637137,"outcomeMarginCorrection":2e-05,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"20","pollster":"BK Strategies","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":4.637117,"selectedQuestionIds":["74895"],"selectedPollIds":["47860"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"52","pollster":"Clarity Campaign Labs","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":2.637117,"selectedQuestionIds":["76171"],"selectedPollIds":["48622"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"69","pollster":"DFM Research","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":9.637117,"selectedQuestionIds":["75384"],"selectedPollIds":["48121"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":12.637117,"selectedQuestionIds":["76054"],"selectedPollIds":["48518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-8.28,"signedError":10.357117,"selectedQuestionIds":["76291"],"selectedPollIds":["48710"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":13.637117,"selectedQuestionIds":["74545"],"selectedPollIds":["47629"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":4.637117,"selectedQuestionIds":["75057"],"selectedPollIds":["47996"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":5.637117,"selectedQuestionIds":["143108"],"selectedPollIds":["50538"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":5.637117,"selectedQuestionIds":["75458"],"selectedPollIds":["48186"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":10.637117,"selectedQuestionIds":["76575"],"selectedPollIds":["48885"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6260","race":"2020_Pres-G_WV","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":32.0,"pollRep":67.0,"pollMargin":-35.0,"actualDem":29.693569,"actualRep":68.62473,"actualMargin":-38.93116,"actualDRShare":98.318299,"signedError":3.93116,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.93116,"individualPollMAE":3.93116,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-38.933169,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.002009,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-35.0,"signedError":3.93116,"selectedQuestionIds":["136670"],"selectedPollIds":["72811"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6261","race":"2020_Pres-G_WY","series":"presidential-state","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"WY","democrat":"Joe Biden","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":66.0,"pollMargin":-33.0,"actualDem":26.553574,"actualRep":69.936227,"actualMargin":-43.382653,"actualDRShare":96.489802,"signedError":10.382653,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.382653,"individualPollMAE":10.382653,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC 2020 presidential general results, state candidate counts; fusion ballot lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-43.382653,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":10.382653,"selectedQuestionIds":["136669"],"selectedPollIds":["72810"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6265","race":"2020_Sen-G_AK","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Al Gross","republican":"Dan Sullivan","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":41.19384,"actualRep":53.897069,"actualMargin":-12.703229,"actualDRShare":95.090909,"signedError":9.703229,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.703229,"individualPollMAE":9.703229,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-27","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-12.703229,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":9.703229,"selectedQuestionIds":["135419"],"selectedPollIds":["72193"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6266","race":"2020_Sen-G_AL","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Gordon Douglas Jones","republican":"Tommy Tuberville","pollDem":41.86,"pollRep":54.64,"pollMargin":-12.78,"actualDem":39.736665,"actualRep":60.095362,"actualMargin":-20.358696,"actualDRShare":99.832027,"signedError":7.578696,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.578696,"individualPollMAE":7.578696,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-20.358696,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"588","pollster":"Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":-10.9,"signedError":9.458696,"selectedQuestionIds":["135490"],"selectedPollIds":["72223"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":-13.6,"signedError":6.758696,"selectedQuestionIds":["134888"],"selectedPollIds":["71959"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":8.358696,"selectedQuestionIds":["136234"],"selectedPollIds":["72591"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-12.1,"signedError":8.258696,"selectedQuestionIds":["136268"],"selectedPollIds":["72617"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-15.3,"signedError":5.058696,"selectedQuestionIds":["136582"],"selectedPollIds":["72763"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6268","race":"2020_Sen-GS_AZ","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"GS","location":"AZ","democrat":"Mark Kelly","republican":"Martha McSally","pollDem":50.664706,"pollRep":44.823529,"pollMargin":5.841176,"actualDem":51.156627,"actualRep":48.807937,"actualMargin":2.34869,"actualDRShare":99.964564,"signedError":3.492486,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.492486,"individualPollMAE":4.268649,"n":17,"pollsters":17,"sourceQuestions":19,"selectedQuestions":17,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":2.34869,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["136503"],"selectedPollIds":["72726"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"73","pollster":"Data Orbital","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":1.1,"signedError":-1.24869,"selectedQuestionIds":["136301"],"selectedPollIds":["72632"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":5.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["136221"],"selectedPollIds":["72585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":2.7,"signedError":0.35131,"selectedQuestionIds":["136051"],"selectedPollIds":["72495"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["135321"],"selectedPollIds":["72158"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":6.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["136343"],"selectedPollIds":["72653"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["136327"],"selectedPollIds":["72649"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":3.5,"signedError":1.15131,"selectedQuestionIds":["136269"],"selectedPollIds":["72602"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"235","pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["135086"],"selectedPollIds":["72055"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"490","pollster":"Patinkin Research Strategies","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["135111"],"selectedPollIds":["72067"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["135483"],"selectedPollIds":["72217"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["135886"],"selectedPollIds":["72417"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-5.34869,"selectedQuestionIds":["134440"],"selectedPollIds":["71750"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":7.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["136581"],"selectedPollIds":["72764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"630","pollster":"The Justice Collaborative Institute","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":7.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["135337"],"selectedPollIds":["72161"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["136021"],"selectedPollIds":["72478"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"516","pollster":"Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":9.65131,"selectedQuestionIds":["135278"],"selectedPollIds":["72147"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6269","race":"2020_Sen-G_CO","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"John Wright Hickenlooper","republican":"Cory Gardner","pollDem":53.85,"pollRep":43.425,"pollMargin":10.425,"actualDem":53.49896,"actualRep":44.177527,"actualMargin":9.321433,"actualDRShare":97.676487,"signedError":1.103567,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.103567,"individualPollMAE":1.975,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":9.321433,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-0.321433,"selectedQuestionIds":["136219"],"selectedPollIds":["72584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"455","pollster":"Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":1.678567,"selectedQuestionIds":["136211"],"selectedPollIds":["72580"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":7.9,"signedError":-1.421433,"selectedQuestionIds":["136270"],"selectedPollIds":["72603"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":13.8,"signedError":4.478567,"selectedQuestionIds":["136586"],"selectedPollIds":["72777"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"627","race":"2016_Pres-G_MS","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MS","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":38.965,"pollRep":51.545,"pollMargin":-12.58,"actualDem":40.114788,"actualRep":57.941038,"actualMargin":-17.82625,"actualDRShare":98.055826,"signedError":5.24625,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.24625,"individualPollMAE":5.24625,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.82625,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-17.16,"signedError":0.66625,"selectedQuestionIds":["76290"],"selectedPollIds":["48709"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":9.82625,"selectedQuestionIds":["76574"],"selectedPollIds":["48884"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6271","race":"2020_Sen-G_GA","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Jon Ossoff","republican":"David A. Perdue","pollDem":48.244444,"pollRep":46.811111,"pollMargin":1.433333,"actualDem":47.949012,"actualRep":49.727988,"actualMargin":-1.778976,"actualDRShare":97.677001,"signedError":3.212309,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.212309,"individualPollMAE":3.283648,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-1.778976,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":7.778976,"selectedQuestionIds":["135052"],"selectedPollIds":["72040"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":6.778976,"selectedQuestionIds":["136513"],"selectedPollIds":["72738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":1.3,"signedError":3.078976,"selectedQuestionIds":["136086"],"selectedPollIds":["72517"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-2.1,"signedError":-0.321024,"selectedQuestionIds":["136359"],"selectedPollIds":["72661"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.778976,"selectedQuestionIds":["135285"],"selectedPollIds":["72146"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.778976,"selectedQuestionIds":["136271"],"selectedPollIds":["72605"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.778976,"selectedQuestionIds":["135403"],"selectedPollIds":["72187"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-1.3,"signedError":0.478976,"selectedQuestionIds":["136578"],"selectedPollIds":["72766"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.778976,"selectedQuestionIds":["134751"],"selectedPollIds":["71888"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6272","race":"2020_Sen-G_IA","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Theresa Greenfield","republican":"Joni K. Ernst","pollDem":47.766667,"pollRep":47.044444,"pollMargin":0.722222,"actualDem":45.151714,"actualRep":51.739593,"actualMargin":-6.587879,"actualDRShare":96.891307,"signedError":7.310101,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.310101,"individualPollMAE":7.310101,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2020-10-23","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-6.587879,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":7.587879,"selectedQuestionIds":["136538"],"selectedPollIds":["72756"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":9.587879,"selectedQuestionIds":["136209"],"selectedPollIds":["72577"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":10.587879,"selectedQuestionIds":["136520"],"selectedPollIds":["72741"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":3.1,"signedError":9.687879,"selectedQuestionIds":["136039"],"selectedPollIds":["72489"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-5.6,"signedError":0.987879,"selectedQuestionIds":["136045"],"selectedPollIds":["72492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":7.587879,"selectedQuestionIds":["136284"],"selectedPollIds":["72621"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":4.587879,"selectedQuestionIds":["135488"],"selectedPollIds":["72220"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"269","pollster":"RABA Research","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":12.587879,"selectedQuestionIds":["135343"],"selectedPollIds":["72063"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":2.587879,"selectedQuestionIds":["135893"],"selectedPollIds":["72420"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6274","race":"2020_Sen-G_IL","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Richard J. Durbin","republican":"Mark C. Curran","pollDem":51.3,"pollRep":27.8,"pollMargin":23.5,"actualDem":54.933563,"actualRep":38.865949,"actualMargin":16.067614,"actualDRShare":93.799512,"signedError":7.432386,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.432386,"individualPollMAE":7.432386,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-31","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":16.067614,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":5.932386,"selectedQuestionIds":["136295"],"selectedPollIds":["72623"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":8.932386,"selectedQuestionIds":["136479"],"selectedPollIds":["72716"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6275","race":"2020_Sen-G_KS","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Barbara Goolsbee Bollier","republican":"Roger Marshall","pollDem":44.82,"pollRep":47.676667,"pollMargin":-2.856667,"actualDem":41.785992,"actualRep":53.223128,"actualMargin":-11.437136,"actualDRShare":95.009121,"signedError":8.580469,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.580469,"individualPollMAE":8.580469,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-11.437136,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":5.437136,"selectedQuestionIds":["136493"],"selectedPollIds":["72723"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"109","pollster":"GBAO","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":12.437136,"selectedQuestionIds":["135352"],"selectedPollIds":["72165"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"501","pollster":"VCreek/AMG","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-3.57,"signedError":7.867136,"selectedQuestionIds":["135528"],"selectedPollIds":["72240"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6276","race":"2020_Sen-G_KY","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Amy McGrath","republican":"Mitch McConnell","pollDem":41.9,"pollRep":50.066667,"pollMargin":-8.166667,"actualDem":38.231157,"actualRep":57.764968,"actualMargin":-19.533811,"actualDRShare":95.996126,"signedError":11.367144,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.367144,"individualPollMAE":11.367144,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-19.533811,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"632","pollster":"Bluegrass Community and Technical College","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":-10.4,"signedError":9.133811,"selectedQuestionIds":["135527"],"selectedPollIds":["72239"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-11.3,"signedError":8.233811,"selectedQuestionIds":["136272"],"selectedPollIds":["72618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-2.8,"signedError":16.733811,"selectedQuestionIds":["136588"],"selectedPollIds":["72779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6278","race":"2020_Sen-G_MA","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Edward J. Markey","republican":"Kevin J. O'Connor","pollDem":60.0,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":31.0,"actualDem":66.153733,"actualRep":33.044895,"actualMargin":33.108838,"actualDRShare":99.198628,"signedError":-2.108838,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.108838,"individualPollMAE":2.108838,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-27","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":33.108838,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"198","pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":31.0,"signedError":-2.108838,"selectedQuestionIds":["136478"],"selectedPollIds":["72715"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6279","race":"2020_Sen-G_ME","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Sara I. Gideon","republican":"Susan M. Collins","pollDem":49.8,"pollRep":46.05,"pollMargin":3.75,"actualDem":42.3865,"actualRep":50.983114,"actualMargin":-8.596614,"actualDRShare":93.369613,"signedError":12.346614,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.346614,"individualPollMAE":12.346614,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-23","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-8.596614,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":16.596614,"selectedQuestionIds":["136607"],"selectedPollIds":["72801"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"593","pollster":"Colby College","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":3.2,"signedError":11.796614,"selectedQuestionIds":["135130"],"selectedPollIds":["72076"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":1.8,"signedError":10.396614,"selectedQuestionIds":["136078"],"selectedPollIds":["72511"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":10.596614,"selectedQuestionIds":["135389"],"selectedPollIds":["72179"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"628","race":"2016_Pres-G_MT","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":32.375,"pollRep":52.83,"pollMargin":-20.455,"actualDem":35.935219,"actualRep":56.466192,"actualMargin":-20.530973,"actualDRShare":92.401411,"signedError":0.075973,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.075973,"individualPollMAE":1.545,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.422732,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.108241,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-18.91,"signedError":1.620973,"selectedQuestionIds":["76372"],"selectedPollIds":["48787"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-1.469027,"selectedQuestionIds":["76576"],"selectedPollIds":["48886"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6280","race":"2020_Sen-G_MI","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Gary C. Peters","republican":"John James","pollDem":50.844444,"pollRep":42.688889,"pollMargin":8.155556,"actualDem":49.903517,"actualRep":48.218394,"actualMargin":1.685123,"actualDRShare":98.121911,"signedError":6.470433,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.470433,"individualPollMAE":6.513224,"n":18,"pollsters":18,"sourceQuestions":22,"selectedQuestions":18,"dateRange":["2020-10-22","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":1.685031,"outcomeMarginCorrection":9.1e-05,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":4.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["135126"],"selectedPollIds":["72074"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["136504"],"selectedPollIds":["72728"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":3.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["136026"],"selectedPollIds":["72483"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":5.8,"signedError":4.114877,"selectedQuestionIds":["136038"],"selectedPollIds":["72487"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"117","pollster":"Glengariff Group","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":9.6,"signedError":7.914877,"selectedQuestionIds":["135139"],"selectedPollIds":["72065"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":9.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["134749"],"selectedPollIds":["71890"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["136079"],"selectedPollIds":["72508"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"585","pollster":"Kiaer Research","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":12.8,"signedError":11.114877,"selectedQuestionIds":["135660"],"selectedPollIds":["72311"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":5.4,"signedError":3.714877,"selectedQuestionIds":["136047"],"selectedPollIds":["72493"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":5.7,"signedError":4.014877,"selectedQuestionIds":["136273"],"selectedPollIds":["72607"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":8.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["135713"],"selectedPollIds":["72333"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"555","pollster":"RMG Research","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":7.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["135888"],"selectedPollIds":["72335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":13.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["136296"],"selectedPollIds":["72624"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":10.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["135878"],"selectedPollIds":["72416"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":7.2,"signedError":5.514877,"selectedQuestionIds":["136579"],"selectedPollIds":["72769"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":9.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["136227"],"selectedPollIds":["72587"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"333","pollster":"Tarrance Group","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":1.3,"signedError":-0.385123,"selectedQuestionIds":["135120"],"selectedPollIds":["72073"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":6.314877,"selectedQuestionIds":["135299"],"selectedPollIds":["72152"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6281","race":"2020_Sen-G_MN","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Tina Smith","republican":"Jason Lewis","pollDem":51.6875,"pollRep":41.4375,"pollMargin":10.25,"actualDem":48.736691,"actualRep":43.498247,"actualMargin":5.238444,"actualDRShare":92.234937,"signedError":5.011556,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.011556,"individualPollMAE":5.571167,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2020-10-20","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.238444,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":4.761556,"selectedQuestionIds":["136518"],"selectedPollIds":["72740"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":8.761556,"selectedQuestionIds":["135088"],"selectedPollIds":["72056"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":3.761556,"selectedQuestionIds":["135861"],"selectedPollIds":["72405"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":5.761556,"selectedQuestionIds":["136297"],"selectedPollIds":["72625"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"312","pollster":"St. Cloud State University","date":"2020-10-20","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":11.761556,"selectedQuestionIds":["136064"],"selectedPollIds":["72503"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.238444,"selectedQuestionIds":["135366"],"selectedPollIds":["72171"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":3.761556,"selectedQuestionIds":["136585"],"selectedPollIds":["72782"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":3.761556,"selectedQuestionIds":["136226"],"selectedPollIds":["72586"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6282","race":"2020_Sen-G_MS","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MS","democrat":"Mike Espy","republican":"Cindy Hyde-Smith","pollDem":45.5,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-5.5,"actualDem":44.129274,"actualRep":54.105223,"actualMargin":-9.975949,"actualDRShare":98.234497,"signedError":4.475949,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.475949,"individualPollMAE":4.475949,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-25","2020-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-9.975949,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":1.975949,"selectedQuestionIds":["135056"],"selectedPollIds":["72041"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":6.975949,"selectedQuestionIds":["136516"],"selectedPollIds":["72739"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6283","race":"2020_Sen-G_MT","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Steve Bullock","republican":"Steve Daines","pollDem":47.333333,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-0.666667,"actualDem":44.987839,"actualRep":55.012161,"actualMargin":-10.024321,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":9.357655,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.357655,"individualPollMAE":9.357655,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-10.024321,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":6.024321,"selectedQuestionIds":["136576"],"selectedPollIds":["72762"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"216","pollster":"Montana State University Billings","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":11.024321,"selectedQuestionIds":["135340"],"selectedPollIds":["72162"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":11.024321,"selectedQuestionIds":["135099"],"selectedPollIds":["72062"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"6285","race":"2020_Sen-G_NE","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Chris E. Janicek","republican":"Ben Sasse","pollDem":17.5,"pollRep":47.4,"pollMargin":-29.9,"actualDem":24.428825,"actualRep":62.741879,"actualMargin":-38.313054,"actualDRShare":87.170703,"signedError":8.413054,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.413054,"individualPollMAE":8.413054,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-20","2020-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-38.313054,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2020-10-20","pollMargin":-29.9,"signedError":8.413054,"selectedQuestionIds":["134276"],"selectedPollIds":["71675"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"6286","race":"2020_Sen-G_NH","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Jeanne Shaheen","republican":"Bryant Messner","pollDem":55.5,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":15.5,"actualDem":56.636521,"actualRep":40.987971,"actualMargin":15.64855,"actualDRShare":97.624492,"signedError":-0.14855,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.14855,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":15.64855,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":1.35145,"selectedQuestionIds":["135495"],"selectedPollIds":["72226"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"494","pollster":"Saint Anselm College Survey Center","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-0.64855,"selectedQuestionIds":["135518"],"selectedPollIds":["72233"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":3.35145,"selectedQuestionIds":["135453"],"selectedPollIds":["72208"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-4.64855,"selectedQuestionIds":["135504"],"selectedPollIds":["72230"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6287","race":"2020_Sen-G_NJ","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Cory A. Booker","republican":"Rikin Mehta","pollDem":59.0,"pollRep":34.0,"pollMargin":25.0,"actualDem":57.228152,"actualRep":40.920496,"actualMargin":16.307656,"actualDRShare":98.148649,"signedError":8.692344,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.692344,"individualPollMAE":8.692344,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":16.307528,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.000128,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":6.692344,"selectedQuestionIds":["136298"],"selectedPollIds":["72626"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":13.692344,"selectedQuestionIds":["135440"],"selectedPollIds":["72205"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":5.692344,"selectedQuestionIds":["135656"],"selectedPollIds":["72304"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6288","race":"2020_Sen-G_NM","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Ben Ray Luján","republican":"Mark V. Ronchetti","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":51.729597,"actualRep":45.624304,"actualMargin":6.105292,"actualDRShare":97.353901,"signedError":1.894708,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.894708,"individualPollMAE":1.894708,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":6.105292,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":1.894708,"selectedQuestionIds":["136020"],"selectedPollIds":["72400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"629","race":"2016_Pres-G_NC","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":46.225714,"pollRep":45.159286,"pollMargin":1.066429,"actualDem":46.172866,"actualRep":49.828095,"actualMargin":-3.655229,"actualDRShare":96.000961,"signedError":4.721657,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.721657,"individualPollMAE":5.387306,"n":14,"pollsters":14,"sourceQuestions":20,"selectedQuestions":14,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.655229,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"86","pollster":"Elon University","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":0.8,"signedError":4.455229,"selectedQuestionIds":["74993"],"selectedPollIds":["47937"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.655229,"selectedQuestionIds":["74742"],"selectedPollIds":["47759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":4.655229,"selectedQuestionIds":["76356"],"selectedPollIds":["48773"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-0.9,"signedError":2.755229,"selectedQuestionIds":["76280"],"selectedPollIds":["48699"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":9.655229,"selectedQuestionIds":["74766"],"selectedPollIds":["47775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.655229,"selectedQuestionIds":["75699"],"selectedPollIds":["48326"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.655229,"selectedQuestionIds":["76062"],"selectedPollIds":["48523"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":9.655229,"selectedQuestionIds":["76242"],"selectedPollIds":["48679"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.655229,"selectedQuestionIds":["75997"],"selectedPollIds":["48491"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":10.655229,"selectedQuestionIds":["76583"],"selectedPollIds":["48893"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-3.344771,"selectedQuestionIds":["75083"],"selectedPollIds":["48008"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":3.655229,"selectedQuestionIds":["76066"],"selectedPollIds":["48524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-4.97,"signedError":-1.314771,"selectedQuestionIds":["75385"],"selectedPollIds":["48122"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.655229,"selectedQuestionIds":["74789"],"selectedPollIds":["47779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6292","race":"2020_Sen-G_SC","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Jaime Harrison","republican":"Lindsey Graham","pollDem":45.573333,"pollRep":48.963333,"pollMargin":-3.39,"actualDem":44.166285,"actualRep":54.436596,"actualMargin":-10.270311,"actualDRShare":98.602881,"signedError":6.880311,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.880311,"individualPollMAE":6.880311,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2020-10-24","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-10.270311,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":7.270311,"selectedQuestionIds":["136495"],"selectedPollIds":["72724"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"523","pollster":"East Carolina University Center for Survey Research","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":-1.84,"signedError":8.430311,"selectedQuestionIds":["135317"],"selectedPollIds":["72157"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-2.2,"signedError":8.070311,"selectedQuestionIds":["136275"],"selectedPollIds":["72613"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"316","pollster":"Starboard Communications","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-9.4,"signedError":0.870311,"selectedQuestionIds":["135037"],"selectedPollIds":["72032"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":5.9,"signedError":16.170311,"selectedQuestionIds":["136587"],"selectedPollIds":["72785"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"245","pollster":"Øptimus Analytics","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-9.8,"signedError":0.470311,"selectedQuestionIds":["140394"],"selectedPollIds":["72864"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6293","race":"2020_Sen-G_SD","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Daniel P. Ahlers","republican":"M. Michael Rounds","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-17.0,"actualDem":34.264752,"actualRep":65.735248,"actualMargin":-31.470495,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":14.470495,"absoluteAverageMiss":14.470495,"individualPollMAE":14.470495,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-31.470495,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"231","pollster":"Nielson Brothers Polling","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":14.470495,"selectedQuestionIds":["136599"],"selectedPollIds":["72794"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6294","race":"2020_Sen-G_TN","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Marquita Bradshaw","republican":"Bill Hagerty","pollDem":37.45,"pollRep":58.5,"pollMargin":-21.05,"actualDem":35.161319,"actualRep":62.198468,"actualMargin":-27.037149,"actualDRShare":97.359787,"signedError":5.987149,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.987149,"individualPollMAE":5.987149,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-27.037149,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":-20.7,"signedError":6.337149,"selectedQuestionIds":["134437"],"selectedPollIds":["71749"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-21.4,"signedError":5.637149,"selectedQuestionIds":["136584"],"selectedPollIds":["72786"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6295","race":"2020_Sen-G_TX","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Mary Jennings Hegar","republican":"John Cornyn","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":49.244444,"pollMargin":-6.244444,"actualDem":43.868866,"actualRep":53.50827,"actualMargin":-9.639404,"actualDRShare":97.377136,"signedError":3.394959,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.394959,"individualPollMAE":4.221891,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-9.639404,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":6.639404,"selectedQuestionIds":["136217"],"selectedPollIds":["72583"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":5.639404,"selectedQuestionIds":["136088"],"selectedPollIds":["72518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":3.639404,"selectedQuestionIds":["136057"],"selectedPollIds":["72498"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-4.2,"signedError":5.439404,"selectedQuestionIds":["136276"],"selectedPollIds":["72614"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"555","pollster":"RMG Research","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":3.639404,"selectedQuestionIds":["135688"],"selectedPollIds":["72229"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-3.360596,"selectedQuestionIds":["136577"],"selectedPollIds":["72774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-0.360596,"selectedQuestionIds":["134908"],"selectedPollIds":["71967"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":4.639404,"selectedQuestionIds":["135451"],"selectedPollIds":["72206"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"516","pollster":"Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":4.639404,"selectedQuestionIds":["135279"],"selectedPollIds":["72149"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6296","race":"2020_Sen-G_VA","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Mark R. Warner","republican":"Daniel M. Gade","pollDem":57.425,"pollRep":39.325,"pollMargin":18.1,"actualDem":55.992084,"actualRep":43.908304,"actualMargin":12.08378,"actualDRShare":99.900388,"signedError":6.01622,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.01622,"individualPollMAE":6.01622,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":12.08378,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"50","pollster":"Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":7.91622,"selectedQuestionIds":["135131"],"selectedPollIds":["72078"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":2.91622,"selectedQuestionIds":["136233"],"selectedPollIds":["72590"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":3.91622,"selectedQuestionIds":["135856"],"selectedPollIds":["72402"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":21.4,"signedError":9.31622,"selectedQuestionIds":["136583"],"selectedPollIds":["72775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"6299","race":"2019_Gov-R_LA","series":"governor","year":2019,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2019,"electionDate":"2019-11-16","raceKind":"R","location":"LA","democrat":"John Bel Edwards","republican":"Eddie Rispone","pollDem":49.014286,"pollRep":47.842857,"pollMargin":1.171429,"actualDem":51.332596,"actualRep":48.667404,"actualMargin":2.665193,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-1.493764,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.493764,"individualPollMAE":1.875138,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2019-11-06","2019-11-14"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":2.665193,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2019-11-08","pollMargin":2.2,"signedError":-0.465193,"selectedQuestionIds":["112875"],"selectedPollIds":["62599"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2019-11-06","pollMargin":0.4,"signedError":-2.265193,"selectedQuestionIds":["113124"],"selectedPollIds":["62637"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"530","pollster":"Edgewater Research/My People Vote","date":"2019-11-11","pollMargin":0.3,"signedError":-2.365193,"selectedQuestionIds":["112900"],"selectedPollIds":["62604"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"156","pollster":"JMC Analytics","date":"2019-11-12","pollMargin":0.5,"signedError":-2.165193,"selectedQuestionIds":["113056"],"selectedPollIds":["62626"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2019-11-06","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.665193,"selectedQuestionIds":["112870"],"selectedPollIds":["62595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2019-11-10","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.334807,"selectedQuestionIds":["113055"],"selectedPollIds":["62625"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2019-11-14","pollMargin":-1.2,"signedError":-3.865193,"selectedQuestionIds":["113126"],"selectedPollIds":["62639"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"63","race":"2016_Sen-G_NV","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Catherine Cortez Masto","republican":"Joseph J. Heck","pollDem":47.3,"pollRep":44.6625,"pollMargin":2.6375,"actualDem":47.098874,"actualRep":44.670367,"actualMargin":2.428507,"actualDRShare":91.769242,"signedError":0.208993,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.208993,"individualPollMAE":2.3625,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2016-10-29","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":2.428507,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-4.428507,"selectedQuestionIds":["75251"],"selectedPollIds":["48089"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":1.1,"signedError":-1.328507,"selectedQuestionIds":["76049"],"selectedPollIds":["48517"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.571493,"selectedQuestionIds":["76270"],"selectedPollIds":["48689"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"156","pollster":"JMC Analytics","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.428507,"selectedQuestionIds":["75513"],"selectedPollIds":["48096"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"175","pollster":"Lucid","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.571493,"selectedQuestionIds":["75319"],"selectedPollIds":["48104"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.571493,"selectedQuestionIds":["75707"],"selectedPollIds":["48328"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.428507,"selectedQuestionIds":["76249"],"selectedPollIds":["48677"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.571493,"selectedQuestionIds":["76535"],"selectedPollIds":["48888"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"630","race":"2016_Pres-G_ND","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"ND","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":27.59,"pollRep":53.37,"pollMargin":-25.78,"actualDem":27.226739,"actualRep":62.955628,"actualMargin":-35.728888,"actualDRShare":90.182367,"signedError":9.948888,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.948888,"individualPollMAE":9.948888,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-35.728888,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-23.56,"signedError":12.168888,"selectedQuestionIds":["75546"],"selectedPollIds":["48245"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":7.728888,"selectedQuestionIds":["76584"],"selectedPollIds":["48894"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"631","race":"2016_Pres-G_NE","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":33.31,"pollRep":52.635,"pollMargin":-19.325,"actualDem":33.698756,"actualRep":58.747351,"actualMargin":-25.048595,"actualDRShare":92.446108,"signedError":5.723595,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.723595,"individualPollMAE":5.723595,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-25.048595,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-21.65,"signedError":3.398595,"selectedQuestionIds":["76292"],"selectedPollIds":["48711"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":8.048595,"selectedQuestionIds":["76577"],"selectedPollIds":["48887"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"632","race":"2016_Pres-G_NH","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":44.293333,"pollRep":42.200833,"pollMargin":2.0925,"actualDem":46.826263,"actualRep":46.458667,"actualMargin":0.367596,"actualDRShare":93.28493,"signedError":1.724904,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.724904,"individualPollMAE":3.775833,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":17,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.367596,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.367596,"selectedQuestionIds":["75460"],"selectedPollIds":["48187"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":1.6,"signedError":1.232404,"selectedQuestionIds":["76055"],"selectedPollIds":["48519"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.367596,"selectedQuestionIds":["75724"],"selectedPollIds":["48338"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":2.61,"signedError":2.242404,"selectedQuestionIds":["76374"],"selectedPollIds":["48658"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"198","pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-1.367596,"selectedQuestionIds":["75395"],"selectedPollIds":["48128"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"257","pollster":"Praecones Analytica","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-1.7,"signedError":-2.067596,"selectedQuestionIds":["74814"],"selectedPollIds":["47793"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.632404,"selectedQuestionIds":["75700"],"selectedPollIds":["48327"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.632404,"selectedQuestionIds":["76241"],"selectedPollIds":["48678"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-0.4,"signedError":-0.767596,"selectedQuestionIds":["75475"],"selectedPollIds":["48194"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":8.632404,"selectedQuestionIds":["76579"],"selectedPollIds":["48889"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.367596,"selectedQuestionIds":["75589"],"selectedPollIds":["48263"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":10.632404,"selectedQuestionIds":["76013"],"selectedPollIds":["48497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"633","race":"2016_Pres-G_NJ","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":50.26,"pollRep":38.286667,"pollMargin":11.973333,"actualDem":55.453084,"actualRep":41.350387,"actualMargin":14.102698,"actualDRShare":96.803471,"signedError":-2.129364,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.129364,"individualPollMAE":2.727566,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":14.102698,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":9.92,"signedError":-4.182698,"selectedQuestionIds":["76278"],"selectedPollIds":["48697"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"317","pollster":"Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-3.102698,"selectedQuestionIds":["75695"],"selectedPollIds":["48323"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":0.897302,"selectedQuestionIds":["76580"],"selectedPollIds":["48890"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"634","race":"2016_Pres-G_NM","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":42.656667,"pollRep":38.056667,"pollMargin":4.6,"actualDem":48.255647,"actualRep":40.042514,"actualMargin":8.213133,"actualDRShare":88.298162,"signedError":-3.613133,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.613133,"individualPollMAE":3.613133,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.213133,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-0.213133,"selectedQuestionIds":["76358"],"selectedPollIds":["48775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":2.6,"signedError":-5.613133,"selectedQuestionIds":["76375"],"selectedPollIds":["48789"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"175","pollster":"Lucid","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-0.213133,"selectedQuestionIds":["75316"],"selectedPollIds":["48105"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-3.213133,"selectedQuestionIds":["75967"],"selectedPollIds":["48476"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-6.213133,"selectedQuestionIds":["76581"],"selectedPollIds":["48891"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"393","pollster":"Zia Poll","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-6.213133,"selectedQuestionIds":["76158"],"selectedPollIds":["48614"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"635","race":"2016_Pres-G_NV","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":44.933333,"pollRep":44.363333,"pollMargin":0.57,"actualDem":47.917824,"actualRep":45.500695,"actualMargin":2.417128,"actualDRShare":93.418519,"signedError":-1.847128,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.847128,"individualPollMAE":2.845231,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":18,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.417128,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-8.417128,"selectedQuestionIds":["75239"],"selectedPollIds":["48089"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":1.2,"signedError":-1.217128,"selectedQuestionIds":["76053"],"selectedPollIds":["48517"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.417128,"selectedQuestionIds":["76269"],"selectedPollIds":["48689"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":3.24,"signedError":0.822872,"selectedQuestionIds":["76373"],"selectedPollIds":["48788"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"156","pollster":"JMC Analytics","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.417128,"selectedQuestionIds":["75268"],"selectedPollIds":["48096"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"572","pollster":"Leger","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.417128,"selectedQuestionIds":["76604"],"selectedPollIds":["48914"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"175","pollster":"Lucid","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.582872,"selectedQuestionIds":["75315"],"selectedPollIds":["48104"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.582872,"selectedQuestionIds":["75701"],"selectedPollIds":["48328"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.417128,"selectedQuestionIds":["76240"],"selectedPollIds":["48677"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-3.417128,"selectedQuestionIds":["75996"],"selectedPollIds":["48490"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.417128,"selectedQuestionIds":["76578"],"selectedPollIds":["48888"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-4.6,"signedError":-7.017128,"selectedQuestionIds":["75963"],"selectedPollIds":["48473"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"636","race":"2016_Pres-G_NY","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":52.698,"pollRep":34.6,"pollMargin":18.098,"actualDem":58.396244,"actualRep":36.138216,"actualMargin":22.258027,"actualDRShare":94.53446,"signedError":-4.160027,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.160027,"individualPollMAE":5.256816,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2016-10-28","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":23.993502,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-1.735475,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-3.258027,"selectedQuestionIds":["76449"],"selectedPollIds":["48853"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":18.49,"signedError":-3.768027,"selectedQuestionIds":["76279"],"selectedPollIds":["48698"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"203","pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-11.258027,"selectedQuestionIds":["82776"],"selectedPollIds":["52424"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":-5.258027,"selectedQuestionIds":["75969"],"selectedPollIds":["48478"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":2.741973,"selectedQuestionIds":["76582"],"selectedPollIds":["48892"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"637","race":"2016_Pres-G_OH","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":43.280909,"pollRep":45.74,"pollMargin":-2.459091,"actualDem":43.558076,"actualRep":51.687651,"actualMargin":-8.129574,"actualDRShare":95.245727,"signedError":5.670483,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.670483,"individualPollMAE":5.670483,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":16,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.129574,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":9.129574,"selectedQuestionIds":["75971"],"selectedPollIds":["48479"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-6.7,"signedError":1.429574,"selectedQuestionIds":["76052"],"selectedPollIds":["48516"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":2.129574,"selectedQuestionIds":["76450"],"selectedPollIds":["48854"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":1.04,"signedError":9.169574,"selectedQuestionIds":["76281"],"selectedPollIds":["48700"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":3.129574,"selectedQuestionIds":["75307"],"selectedPollIds":["48100"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":9.129574,"selectedQuestionIds":["76243"],"selectedPollIds":["48680"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":7.129574,"selectedQuestionIds":["75998"],"selectedPollIds":["48492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":5.129574,"selectedQuestionIds":["76585"],"selectedPollIds":["48895"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"332","pollster":"TargetSmart","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":5.129574,"selectedQuestionIds":["76002"],"selectedPollIds":["48496"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-4.39,"signedError":3.739574,"selectedQuestionIds":["75203"],"selectedPollIds":["48073"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":7.129574,"selectedQuestionIds":["75977"],"selectedPollIds":["48481"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"638","race":"2016_Pres-G_OK","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":30.925,"pollRep":58.89,"pollMargin":-27.965,"actualDem":28.93168,"actualRep":65.322865,"actualMargin":-36.391185,"actualDRShare":94.254545,"signedError":8.426185,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.426185,"individualPollMAE":8.426185,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-36.391185,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-30.93,"signedError":5.461185,"selectedQuestionIds":["76376"],"selectedPollIds":["48790"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-25.0,"signedError":11.391185,"selectedQuestionIds":["76586"],"selectedPollIds":["48896"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"639","race":"2016_Pres-G_OR","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":45.43,"pollRep":36.51,"pollMargin":8.92,"actualDem":50.071852,"actualRep":39.094035,"actualMargin":10.977817,"actualDRShare":89.165887,"signedError":-2.057817,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.057817,"individualPollMAE":4.068908,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.977817,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-3.977817,"selectedQuestionIds":["75108"],"selectedPollIds":["48017"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.977817,"selectedQuestionIds":["76451"],"selectedPollIds":["48855"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":9.68,"signedError":-1.297817,"selectedQuestionIds":["76293"],"selectedPollIds":["48712"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":4.022183,"selectedQuestionIds":["76587"],"selectedPollIds":["48897"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"64","race":"2016_Sen-G_HI","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Brian Schatz","republican":"John Stanley Carroll","pollDem":70.0,"pollRep":26.0,"pollMargin":44.0,"actualDem":73.603449,"actualRep":22.242307,"actualMargin":51.361142,"actualDRShare":95.845756,"signedError":-7.361142,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.361142,"individualPollMAE":7.361142,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":51.361142,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":44.0,"signedError":-7.361142,"selectedQuestionIds":["76525"],"selectedPollIds":["48871"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"640","race":"2016_Pres-G_PA","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":46.63,"pollRep":43.448235,"pollMargin":3.181765,"actualDem":47.853616,"actualRep":48.577886,"actualMargin":-0.72427,"actualDRShare":96.431502,"signedError":3.906034,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.906034,"individualPollMAE":4.196794,"n":17,"pollsters":17,"sourceQuestions":25,"selectedQuestions":17,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.718387,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.005883,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["75243"],"selectedPollIds":["48090"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"52","pollster":"Clarity Campaign Labs","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["76169"],"selectedPollIds":["48620"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":5.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["74627"],"selectedPollIds":["47654"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":11.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["74927"],"selectedPollIds":["47876"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":6.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["76452"],"selectedPollIds":["48856"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"132","pollster":"Harper Polling","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["75732"],"selectedPollIds":["48343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":3.01,"signedError":3.73427,"selectedQuestionIds":["76282"],"selectedPollIds":["48701"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["75255"],"selectedPollIds":["48092"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["75953"],"selectedPollIds":["48469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["75702"],"selectedPollIds":["48329"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":5.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["75308"],"selectedPollIds":["48101"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-1.27573,"selectedQuestionIds":["76244"],"selectedPollIds":["48681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["75999"],"selectedPollIds":["48493"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":3.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["76588"],"selectedPollIds":["48898"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["75228"],"selectedPollIds":["48086"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-1.92,"signedError":-1.19573,"selectedQuestionIds":["76191"],"selectedPollIds":["48629"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.72427,"selectedQuestionIds":["76246"],"selectedPollIds":["48683"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"641","race":"2016_Pres-G_RI","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":12.0,"actualDem":54.406607,"actualRep":38.898057,"actualMargin":15.508549,"actualDRShare":93.304664,"signedError":-3.508549,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.508549,"individualPollMAE":3.508549,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.530951,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.022402,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-3.508549,"selectedQuestionIds":["76589"],"selectedPollIds":["48899"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"642","race":"2016_Pres-G_SC","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":41.4025,"pollRep":47.8575,"pollMargin":-6.455,"actualDem":40.67342,"actualRep":54.939333,"actualMargin":-14.265913,"actualDRShare":95.612752,"signedError":7.810913,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.810913,"individualPollMAE":7.810913,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.265913,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":9.265913,"selectedQuestionIds":["76453"],"selectedPollIds":["48857"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-5.82,"signedError":8.445913,"selectedQuestionIds":["76294"],"selectedPollIds":["48713"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"316","pollster":"Starboard Communications","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":3.265913,"selectedQuestionIds":["76184"],"selectedPollIds":["48627"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":10.265913,"selectedQuestionIds":["76590"],"selectedPollIds":["48900"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"643","race":"2016_Pres-G_SD","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":32.15,"pollRep":51.386667,"pollMargin":-19.236667,"actualDem":31.737428,"actualRep":61.53075,"actualMargin":-29.793322,"actualDRShare":93.268179,"signedError":10.556656,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.556656,"individualPollMAE":10.556656,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-29.793322,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-22.71,"signedError":7.083322,"selectedQuestionIds":["76377"],"selectedPollIds":["48791"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"231","pollster":"Nielson Brothers Polling","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":15.793322,"selectedQuestionIds":["74921"],"selectedPollIds":["47873"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":8.793322,"selectedQuestionIds":["76591"],"selectedPollIds":["48901"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"644","race":"2016_Pres-G_TN","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":38.665,"pollRep":49.38,"pollMargin":-10.715,"actualDem":34.716333,"actualRep":60.722034,"actualMargin":-26.005701,"actualDRShare":95.438366,"signedError":15.290701,"absoluteAverageMiss":15.290701,"individualPollMAE":15.290701,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-26.005701,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-13.43,"signedError":12.575701,"selectedQuestionIds":["76295"],"selectedPollIds":["48714"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":18.005701,"selectedQuestionIds":["76592"],"selectedPollIds":["48902"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"645","race":"2016_Pres-G_TX","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":39.238,"pollRep":48.896,"pollMargin":-9.658,"actualDem":43.235258,"actualRep":52.234686,"actualMargin":-8.999428,"actualDRShare":95.469944,"signedError":-0.658572,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.658572,"individualPollMAE":3.058343,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2016-10-28","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.999428,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"81","pollster":"Dixie Strategies","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":-12.14,"signedError":-3.140572,"selectedQuestionIds":["75052"],"selectedPollIds":["47993"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-14.7,"signedError":-5.700572,"selectedQuestionIds":["75477"],"selectedPollIds":["48195"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-9.45,"signedError":-0.450572,"selectedQuestionIds":["76283"],"selectedPollIds":["48702"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-0.000572,"selectedQuestionIds":["75508"],"selectedPollIds":["48210"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":5.999428,"selectedQuestionIds":["76593"],"selectedPollIds":["48903"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"646","race":"2016_Pres-G_UT","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":27.891111,"pollRep":37.823333,"pollMargin":-9.932222,"actualDem":27.461269,"actualRep":45.540817,"actualMargin":-18.079548,"actualDRShare":73.002085,"signedError":8.147326,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.147326,"individualPollMAE":8.618537,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-18.078413,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.001135,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-20.2,"signedError":-2.120452,"selectedQuestionIds":["75478"],"selectedPollIds":["48196"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":12.079548,"selectedQuestionIds":["75794"],"selectedPollIds":["48357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-6.76,"signedError":11.319548,"selectedQuestionIds":["76378"],"selectedPollIds":["48792"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":12.079548,"selectedQuestionIds":["75470"],"selectedPollIds":["48191"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":7.079548,"selectedQuestionIds":["75474"],"selectedPollIds":["48193"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":15.079548,"selectedQuestionIds":["76594"],"selectedPollIds":["48904"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-10.43,"signedError":7.649548,"selectedQuestionIds":["75993"],"selectedPollIds":["48487"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"389","pollster":"Y2 Analytics","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":9.079548,"selectedQuestionIds":["75726"],"selectedPollIds":["48339"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":1.079548,"selectedQuestionIds":["76247"],"selectedPollIds":["48684"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"647","race":"2016_Pres-G_VA","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":46.809091,"pollRep":41.646364,"pollMargin":5.162727,"actualDem":49.751353,"actualRep":44.427647,"actualMargin":5.323706,"actualDRShare":94.179,"signedError":-0.160979,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.160979,"individualPollMAE":1.198283,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":16,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.321195,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.00251,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"50","pollster":"Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.676294,"selectedQuestionIds":["76034"],"selectedPollIds":["48512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.323706,"selectedQuestionIds":["74930"],"selectedPollIds":["47877"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.323706,"selectedQuestionIds":["76355"],"selectedPollIds":["48772"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"131","pollster":"Hampton University Center for Public Policy","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.323706,"selectedQuestionIds":["76257"],"selectedPollIds":["48685"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":4.79,"signedError":-0.533706,"selectedQuestionIds":["76284"],"selectedPollIds":["48703"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.323706,"selectedQuestionIds":["75743"],"selectedPollIds":["48349"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.323706,"selectedQuestionIds":["76000"],"selectedPollIds":["48494"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":1.676294,"selectedQuestionIds":["75632"],"selectedPollIds":["48267"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":2.676294,"selectedQuestionIds":["76596"],"selectedPollIds":["48906"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"754","pollster":"The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.676294,"selectedQuestionIds":["74934"],"selectedPollIds":["47880"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"386","pollster":"Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.323706,"selectedQuestionIds":["75204"],"selectedPollIds":["48074"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"648","race":"2016_Pres-G_VT","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":53.756667,"pollRep":24.8,"pollMargin":28.956667,"actualDem":55.722742,"actualRep":29.759382,"actualMargin":25.96336,"actualDRShare":85.482125,"signedError":2.993307,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.993307,"individualPollMAE":3.722213,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":26.408351,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.444992,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":24.87,"signedError":-1.09336,"selectedQuestionIds":["75556"],"selectedPollIds":["48255"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"274","pollster":"RRH Elections","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":0.03664,"selectedQuestionIds":["74563"],"selectedPollIds":["47640"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":36.0,"signedError":10.03664,"selectedQuestionIds":["76595"],"selectedPollIds":["48905"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"649","race":"2016_Pres-G_WA","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":49.68,"pollRep":36.37,"pollMargin":13.31,"actualDem":52.53868,"actualRep":36.83268,"actualMargin":15.706,"actualDRShare":89.37136,"signedError":-2.396,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.396,"individualPollMAE":3.543,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.706,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":8.24,"signedError":-7.466,"selectedQuestionIds":["76296"],"selectedPollIds":["48715"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"572","pollster":"Leger","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-0.706,"selectedQuestionIds":["76605"],"selectedPollIds":["48915"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":2.294,"selectedQuestionIds":["76597"],"selectedPollIds":["48907"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-3.706,"selectedQuestionIds":["75831"],"selectedPollIds":["48365"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"65","race":"2016_Sen-G_OR","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Ron Wyden","republican":"Mark Callahan","pollDem":63.0,"pollRep":32.0,"pollMargin":31.0,"actualDem":56.600843,"actualRep":33.347674,"actualMargin":23.253169,"actualDRShare":89.948517,"signedError":7.746831,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.746831,"individualPollMAE":7.746831,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":23.253169,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":31.0,"signedError":7.746831,"selectedQuestionIds":["76542"],"selectedPollIds":["48897"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"650","race":"2016_Pres-G_WI","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":46.535556,"pollRep":41.21,"pollMargin":5.325556,"actualDem":46.453841,"actualRep":47.218185,"actualMargin":-0.764343,"actualDRShare":93.672026,"signedError":6.089899,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.089899,"individualPollMAE":6.089899,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.764343,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"52","pollster":"Clarity Campaign Labs","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.764343,"selectedQuestionIds":["76170"],"selectedPollIds":["48621"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":6.764343,"selectedQuestionIds":["74741"],"selectedPollIds":["47758"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":3.764343,"selectedQuestionIds":["76454"],"selectedPollIds":["48858"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":5.93,"signedError":6.694343,"selectedQuestionIds":["76298"],"selectedPollIds":["48717"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":6.764343,"selectedQuestionIds":["75715"],"selectedPollIds":["48334"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":6.764343,"selectedQuestionIds":["75264"],"selectedPollIds":["48095"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":7.764343,"selectedQuestionIds":["75703"],"selectedPollIds":["48330"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":8.764343,"selectedQuestionIds":["76001"],"selectedPollIds":["48495"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.764343,"selectedQuestionIds":["76599"],"selectedPollIds":["48909"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"651","race":"2016_Pres-G_WV","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":31.61,"pollRep":57.02,"pollMargin":-25.41,"actualDem":26.476928,"actualRep":68.630575,"actualMargin":-42.153647,"actualDRShare":95.107503,"signedError":16.743647,"absoluteAverageMiss":16.743647,"individualPollMAE":16.743647,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-42.072694,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.080953,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-23.82,"signedError":18.333647,"selectedQuestionIds":["76297"],"selectedPollIds":["48716"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":15.153647,"selectedQuestionIds":["76598"],"selectedPollIds":["48908"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"652","race":"2016_Pres-G_WY","series":"presidential-state","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WY","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":21.0,"pollRep":60.0,"pollMargin":-39.0,"actualDem":21.628901,"actualRep":67.398411,"actualMargin":-45.76951,"actualDRShare":89.027312,"signedError":6.76951,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.76951,"individualPollMAE":6.76951,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-46.295276,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.525766,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-39.0,"signedError":6.76951,"selectedQuestionIds":["76600"],"selectedPollIds":["48910"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"656","race":"2012_Pres-G_AZ","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":52.5,"pollMargin":-7.5,"actualDem":44.589767,"actualRep":53.654533,"actualMargin":-9.064766,"actualDRShare":98.2443,"signedError":1.564766,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.564766,"individualPollMAE":1.564766,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-11-02","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.064766,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":2.064766,"selectedQuestionIds":["36949"],"selectedPollIds":["30682"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":1.064766,"selectedQuestionIds":["36956"],"selectedPollIds":["30685"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"657","race":"2012_Pres-G_CA","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":54.966667,"pollRep":37.333333,"pollMargin":17.633333,"actualDem":60.238959,"actualRep":37.120379,"actualMargin":23.118581,"actualDRShare":97.359338,"signedError":-5.485247,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.485247,"individualPollMAE":5.485247,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":23.118581,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-8.118581,"selectedQuestionIds":["36856"],"selectedPollIds":["30638"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"177","pollster":"MFour Mobile Research","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":22.9,"signedError":-0.218581,"selectedQuestionIds":["36637"],"selectedPollIds":["30479"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-8.118581,"selectedQuestionIds":["36991"],"selectedPollIds":["30703"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"658","race":"2012_Pres-G_CO","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":48.392308,"pollRep":46.9,"pollMargin":1.492308,"actualDem":51.492227,"actualRep":46.127092,"actualMargin":5.365135,"actualDRShare":97.619318,"signedError":-3.872827,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.872827,"individualPollMAE":3.970499,"n":13,"pollsters":13,"sourceQuestions":19,"selectedQuestions":13,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.365161,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-2.6e-05,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-6.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["36489"],"selectedPollIds":["30412"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["150521"],"selectedPollIds":["30558"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"42","pollster":"CallFire","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["36712"],"selectedPollIds":["30546"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["36578"],"selectedPollIds":["30466"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["37141"],"selectedPollIds":["30787"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"161","pollster":"Keating Research","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["37143"],"selectedPollIds":["30789"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["36347"],"selectedPollIds":["30316"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.634865,"selectedQuestionIds":["37096"],"selectedPollIds":["30756"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"265","pollster":"Purple Strategies","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["36382"],"selectedPollIds":["30343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-8.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["36730"],"selectedPollIds":["30560"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["36782"],"selectedPollIds":["30590"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":3.4,"signedError":-1.965135,"selectedQuestionIds":["36645"],"selectedPollIds":["30509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.365135,"selectedQuestionIds":["37008"],"selectedPollIds":["30712"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"659","race":"2012_Pres-G_CT","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":54.5,"pollRep":40.5,"pollMargin":14.0,"actualDem":58.085013,"actualRep":40.745114,"actualMargin":17.339899,"actualDRShare":98.830128,"signedError":-3.339899,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.339899,"individualPollMAE":3.339899,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-11-01","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":17.33149,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.008409,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-4.339899,"selectedQuestionIds":["36825"],"selectedPollIds":["30623"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-2.339899,"selectedQuestionIds":["36989"],"selectedPollIds":["30702"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"66","race":"2016_Sen-G_SC","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Thomas Dixon","republican":"Tim Scott","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-21.0,"actualDem":36.92983,"actualRep":60.569454,"actualMargin":-23.639624,"actualDRShare":97.499284,"signedError":2.639624,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.639624,"individualPollMAE":2.639624,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-26.199855,"outcomeMarginCorrection":2.560231,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":2.639624,"selectedQuestionIds":["76544"],"selectedPollIds":["48900"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"662","race":"2012_Pres-G_FL","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":47.822222,"pollRep":48.5,"pollMargin":-0.677778,"actualDem":50.007865,"actualRep":49.130978,"actualMargin":0.876887,"actualDRShare":99.138843,"signedError":-1.554665,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.554665,"individualPollMAE":2.289728,"n":18,"pollsters":18,"sourceQuestions":26,"selectedQuestions":18,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.876887,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["37115"],"selectedPollIds":["30773"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["36509"],"selectedPollIds":["30426"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["150525"],"selectedPollIds":["77886"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.123113,"selectedQuestionIds":["36719"],"selectedPollIds":["30553"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["37054"],"selectedPollIds":["30744"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-1.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["37135"],"selectedPollIds":["30785"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.123113,"selectedQuestionIds":["36839"],"selectedPollIds":["30629"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-6.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["36922"],"selectedPollIds":["30625"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.123113,"selectedQuestionIds":["36959"],"selectedPollIds":["30686"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.123113,"selectedQuestionIds":["37061"],"selectedPollIds":["30748"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.123113,"selectedQuestionIds":["36602"],"selectedPollIds":["30482"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["36860"],"selectedPollIds":["30641"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["36481"],"selectedPollIds":["30327"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["36526"],"selectedPollIds":["30436"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["36486"],"selectedPollIds":["30334"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-0.9,"signedError":-1.776887,"selectedQuestionIds":["36646"],"selectedPollIds":["30510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-1.876887,"selectedQuestionIds":["37006"],"selectedPollIds":["30711"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":-0.3,"signedError":-1.176887,"selectedQuestionIds":["150590"],"selectedPollIds":["30806"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"663","race":"2012_Pres-G_GA","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":44.666667,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-7.333333,"actualDem":45.50796,"actualRep":53.329242,"actualMargin":-7.821283,"actualDRShare":98.837202,"signedError":0.487949,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.487949,"individualPollMAE":0.726239,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-27","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.816849,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.004434,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"1","pollster":"20/20 Insight","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":1.821283,"selectedQuestionIds":["36770"],"selectedPollIds":["30586"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-0.178717,"selectedQuestionIds":["36529"],"selectedPollIds":["30438"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-0.178717,"selectedQuestionIds":["36960"],"selectedPollIds":["30687"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"664","race":"2012_Pres-G_HI","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":61.0,"pollRep":34.0,"pollMargin":27.0,"actualDem":70.147932,"actualRep":27.682148,"actualMargin":42.465785,"actualDRShare":97.83008,"signedError":-15.465785,"absoluteAverageMiss":15.465785,"individualPollMAE":15.465785,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-26","2012-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":42.706299,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.240514,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"207","pollster":"MRG Research","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":27.0,"signedError":-15.465785,"selectedQuestionIds":["36766"],"selectedPollIds":["30541"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"665","race":"2012_Pres-G_IA","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":48.345455,"pollRep":46.027273,"pollMargin":2.318182,"actualDem":51.988017,"actualRep":46.177869,"actualMargin":5.810148,"actualDRShare":98.165885,"signedError":-3.491966,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.491966,"individualPollMAE":3.526485,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.810148,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-6.810148,"selectedQuestionIds":["37106"],"selectedPollIds":["30764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"42","pollster":"CallFire","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.810148,"selectedQuestionIds":["36711"],"selectedPollIds":["30544"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.810148,"selectedQuestionIds":["36764"],"selectedPollIds":["30582"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.810148,"selectedQuestionIds":["36851"],"selectedPollIds":["30634"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.189852,"selectedQuestionIds":["36702"],"selectedPollIds":["30539"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.810148,"selectedQuestionIds":["36818"],"selectedPollIds":["30617"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.810148,"selectedQuestionIds":["37030"],"selectedPollIds":["30728"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-6.810148,"selectedQuestionIds":["36714"],"selectedPollIds":["30548"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.810148,"selectedQuestionIds":["36918"],"selectedPollIds":["30667"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":1.5,"signedError":-4.310148,"selectedQuestionIds":["36647"],"selectedPollIds":["30511"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.810148,"selectedQuestionIds":["37004"],"selectedPollIds":["30710"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"667","race":"2012_Pres-G_IL","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":57.0,"pollRep":39.5,"pollMargin":17.5,"actualDem":57.602135,"actualRep":40.732741,"actualMargin":16.869394,"actualDRShare":98.334877,"signedError":0.630606,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.630606,"individualPollMAE":1.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-30","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.869394,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-0.869394,"selectedQuestionIds":["36624"],"selectedPollIds":["30496"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":2.130606,"selectedQuestionIds":["36987"],"selectedPollIds":["30701"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"668","race":"2012_Pres-G_IN","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":42.25,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-9.75,"actualDem":43.927303,"actualRep":54.125532,"actualMargin":-10.198229,"actualDRShare":98.052835,"signedError":0.448229,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.448229,"individualPollMAE":1.849115,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.198229,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"142","pollster":"Howey Politics/DePauw University","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":0.198229,"selectedQuestionIds":["36774"],"selectedPollIds":["30585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"203","pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-2.801771,"selectedQuestionIds":["37211"],"selectedPollIds":["30619"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":1.198229,"selectedQuestionIds":["36943"],"selectedPollIds":["30611"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":3.198229,"selectedQuestionIds":["36961"],"selectedPollIds":["30688"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"67","race":"2016_Sen-G_OH","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Ted Strickland","republican":"Rob Portman","pollDem":36.55,"pollRep":53.966667,"pollMargin":-17.416667,"actualDem":37.157556,"actualRep":58.028877,"actualMargin":-20.871321,"actualDRShare":95.186433,"signedError":3.454654,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.454654,"individualPollMAE":3.497547,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2016-10-29","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-20.871223,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-9.8e-05,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-0.128679,"selectedQuestionIds":["75972"],"selectedPollIds":["48479"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-20.5,"signedError":0.371321,"selectedQuestionIds":["76048"],"selectedPollIds":["48516"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":2.871321,"selectedQuestionIds":["75466"],"selectedPollIds":["48100"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":6.871321,"selectedQuestionIds":["76252"],"selectedPollIds":["48680"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":2.871321,"selectedQuestionIds":["76540"],"selectedPollIds":["48895"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":7.871321,"selectedQuestionIds":["75979"],"selectedPollIds":["48481"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"672","race":"2012_Pres-G_MA","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":57.125,"pollRep":38.25,"pollMargin":18.875,"actualDem":60.338308,"actualRep":37.319122,"actualMargin":23.019186,"actualDRShare":97.657431,"signedError":-4.144186,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.144186,"individualPollMAE":6.38939,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2012-10-25","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":23.019186,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"163","pollster":"Kimball Political Consulting","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-10.019186,"selectedQuestionIds":["36777"],"selectedPollIds":["30587"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-8.019186,"selectedQuestionIds":["36827"],"selectedPollIds":["30624"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-4.019186,"selectedQuestionIds":["36626"],"selectedPollIds":["30328"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":32.0,"signedError":8.980814,"selectedQuestionIds":["36539"],"selectedPollIds":["30445"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-3.019186,"selectedQuestionIds":["37045"],"selectedPollIds":["30740"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-9.019186,"selectedQuestionIds":["36490"],"selectedPollIds":["30413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"380","pollster":"Western New England University Polling Institute","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-5.019186,"selectedQuestionIds":["36889"],"selectedPollIds":["30650"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-3.019186,"selectedQuestionIds":["36985"],"selectedPollIds":["30700"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"673","race":"2012_Pres-G_MD","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":59.0,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":22.0,"actualDem":61.974191,"actualRep":35.897732,"actualMargin":26.076458,"actualDRShare":97.871923,"signedError":-4.076458,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.076458,"individualPollMAE":4.076458,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-11-02","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":26.076458,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-4.076458,"selectedQuestionIds":["36983"],"selectedPollIds":["30699"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"674","race":"2012_Pres-G_ME","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":52.433333,"pollRep":42.066667,"pollMargin":10.366667,"actualDem":55.371034,"actualRep":40.327392,"actualMargin":15.043642,"actualDRShare":95.698426,"signedError":-4.676975,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.676975,"individualPollMAE":4.676975,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-30","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.287866,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.244223,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"64","pollster":"Digital Research","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-8.043642,"selectedQuestionIds":["36920"],"selectedPollIds":["30669"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"180","pollster":"Maine People's Resource Center","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":11.1,"signedError":-3.943642,"selectedQuestionIds":["37163"],"selectedPollIds":["30802"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-2.043642,"selectedQuestionIds":["36821"],"selectedPollIds":["30620"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"675","race":"2012_Pres-G_MI","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":49.771111,"pollRep":44.984444,"pollMargin":4.786667,"actualDem":54.208204,"actualRep":44.710916,"actualMargin":9.497288,"actualDRShare":98.91912,"signedError":-4.710622,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.710622,"individualPollMAE":4.710622,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2012-10-28","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.497288,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-4.497288,"selectedQuestionIds":["37119"],"selectedPollIds":["30775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"25","pollster":"Baydoun Consulting","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-0.62,"signedError":-10.117288,"selectedQuestionIds":["36940"],"selectedPollIds":["30679"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-3.497288,"selectedQuestionIds":["36640"],"selectedPollIds":["30506"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"117","pollster":"Glengariff Group","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":2.7,"signedError":-6.797288,"selectedQuestionIds":["36597"],"selectedPollIds":["30470"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-2.497288,"selectedQuestionIds":["36760"],"selectedPollIds":["30578"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-4.497288,"selectedQuestionIds":["37150"],"selectedPollIds":["30795"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-3.497288,"selectedQuestionIds":["36854"],"selectedPollIds":["30637"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-4.497288,"selectedQuestionIds":["36783"],"selectedPollIds":["30591"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-2.497288,"selectedQuestionIds":["36981"],"selectedPollIds":["30698"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"676","race":"2012_Pres-G_MN","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":49.4,"pollRep":43.8,"pollMargin":5.6,"actualDem":52.652303,"actualRep":44.958201,"actualMargin":7.694102,"actualDRShare":97.610504,"signedError":-2.094102,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.094102,"individualPollMAE":3.53882,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.694102,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-4.694102,"selectedQuestionIds":["36562"],"selectedPollIds":["30384"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-8.694102,"selectedQuestionIds":["150656"],"selectedPollIds":["77925"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.305898,"selectedQuestionIds":["143052"],"selectedPollIds":["73239"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":3.305898,"selectedQuestionIds":["37038"],"selectedPollIds":["30735"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-0.694102,"selectedQuestionIds":["36979"],"selectedPollIds":["30697"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"677","race":"2012_Pres-G_MO","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":42.64,"pollRep":52.76,"pollMargin":-10.12,"actualDem":44.383484,"actualRep":53.763741,"actualMargin":-9.380258,"actualDRShare":98.147225,"signedError":-0.739742,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.739742,"individualPollMAE":2.243948,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.380258,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-3.619742,"selectedQuestionIds":["36427"],"selectedPollIds":["30360"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":1.380258,"selectedQuestionIds":["36951"],"selectedPollIds":["30683"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":2.380258,"selectedQuestionIds":["37040"],"selectedPollIds":["30736"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-11.6,"signedError":-2.219742,"selectedQuestionIds":["36648"],"selectedPollIds":["30512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-1.619742,"selectedQuestionIds":["36963"],"selectedPollIds":["30689"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"679","race":"2012_Pres-G_MT","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":51.75,"pollMargin":-8.75,"actualDem":41.698137,"actualRep":55.351535,"actualMargin":-13.653398,"actualDRShare":97.049673,"signedError":4.903398,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.903398,"individualPollMAE":4.903398,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-13.653398,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":3.653398,"selectedQuestionIds":["36933"],"selectedPollIds":["51340"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":5.653398,"selectedQuestionIds":["150658"],"selectedPollIds":["73522"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":6.653398,"selectedQuestionIds":["36947"],"selectedPollIds":["30681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":3.653398,"selectedQuestionIds":["36945"],"selectedPollIds":["30580"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"68","race":"2016_Sen-G_AL","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Ronald Steven Crumpton","republican":"Richard C. Shelby","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":35.867262,"actualRep":63.958794,"actualMargin":-28.091532,"actualDRShare":99.826055,"signedError":9.091532,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.091532,"individualPollMAE":9.091532,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-28.091532,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":9.091532,"selectedQuestionIds":["76516"],"selectedPollIds":["48860"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"680","race":"2012_Pres-G_NC","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":46.325,"pollRep":48.2125,"pollMargin":-1.8875,"actualDem":48.350969,"actualRep":50.393064,"actualMargin":-2.042096,"actualDRShare":98.744033,"signedError":0.154596,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.154596,"individualPollMAE":2.373024,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.042096,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"86","pollster":"Elon University","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":0.1,"signedError":2.142096,"selectedQuestionIds":["36516"],"selectedPollIds":["30415"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.957904,"selectedQuestionIds":["37043"],"selectedPollIds":["30738"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":5.042096,"selectedQuestionIds":["36388"],"selectedPollIds":["30349"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"139","pollster":"High Point University Survey Research Center","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.042096,"selectedQuestionIds":["36718"],"selectedPollIds":["30552"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":-0.2,"signedError":1.842096,"selectedQuestionIds":["37086"],"selectedPollIds":["30745"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-3.957904,"selectedQuestionIds":["36405"],"selectedPollIds":["30362"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.957904,"selectedQuestionIds":["36583"],"selectedPollIds":["30469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.042096,"selectedQuestionIds":["37003"],"selectedPollIds":["30709"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"681","race":"2012_Pres-G_ND","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"ND","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-14.0,"actualDem":38.697311,"actualRep":58.315683,"actualMargin":-19.618372,"actualDRShare":97.012993,"signedError":5.618372,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.618372,"individualPollMAE":5.618372,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-27","2012-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.618372,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":5.618372,"selectedQuestionIds":["36581"],"selectedPollIds":["30465"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"682","race":"2012_Pres-G_NE","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":55.75,"pollMargin":-16.75,"actualDem":38.027314,"actualRep":59.803192,"actualMargin":-21.775878,"actualDRShare":97.830507,"signedError":5.025878,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.025878,"individualPollMAE":5.137939,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-21.775878,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-0.224122,"selectedQuestionIds":["36664"],"selectedPollIds":["30521"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":3.775878,"selectedQuestionIds":["150661"],"selectedPollIds":["73231"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":8.775878,"selectedQuestionIds":["36772"],"selectedPollIds":["30581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"382","pollster":"Wiese Research Associates","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":7.775878,"selectedQuestionIds":["36452"],"selectedPollIds":["51308"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"683","race":"2012_Pres-G_NH","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":48.9,"pollRep":46.2,"pollMargin":2.7,"actualDem":51.979684,"actualRep":46.403796,"actualMargin":5.575888,"actualDRShare":98.383481,"signedError":-2.875888,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.875888,"individualPollMAE":2.875888,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.575888,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.575888,"selectedQuestionIds":["37105"],"selectedPollIds":["30763"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.575888,"selectedQuestionIds":["36810"],"selectedPollIds":["30610"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.575888,"selectedQuestionIds":["36387"],"selectedPollIds":["30348"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"165","pollster":"Lake Research Partners","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.575888,"selectedQuestionIds":["36547"],"selectedPollIds":["30449"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.575888,"selectedQuestionIds":["36700"],"selectedPollIds":["30538"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"228","pollster":"New England College Polling Center","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.575888,"selectedQuestionIds":["37093"],"selectedPollIds":["30754"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.575888,"selectedQuestionIds":["37031"],"selectedPollIds":["30729"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.575888,"selectedQuestionIds":["37090"],"selectedPollIds":["30752"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.575888,"selectedQuestionIds":["37087"],"selectedPollIds":["30749"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.575888,"selectedQuestionIds":["36999"],"selectedPollIds":["30707"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"684","race":"2012_Pres-G_NJ","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":11.0,"actualDem":58.342355,"actualRep":40.623565,"actualMargin":17.71879,"actualDRShare":98.96592,"signedError":-6.71879,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.71879,"individualPollMAE":6.71879,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":17.71879,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"119","pollster":"Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer)","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-7.71879,"selectedQuestionIds":["36574"],"selectedPollIds":["30357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-5.71879,"selectedQuestionIds":["36977"],"selectedPollIds":["30696"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"685","race":"2012_Pres-G_NM","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":50.25,"pollRep":42.25,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":52.992761,"actualRep":42.843327,"actualMargin":10.149434,"actualDRShare":95.836087,"signedError":-2.149434,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.149434,"individualPollMAE":2.149434,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.149434,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.149434,"selectedQuestionIds":["36926"],"selectedPollIds":["30671"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.149434,"selectedQuestionIds":["36394"],"selectedPollIds":["30355"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.149434,"selectedQuestionIds":["36530"],"selectedPollIds":["30386"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-4.149434,"selectedQuestionIds":["36975"],"selectedPollIds":["30695"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"686","race":"2012_Pres-G_NV","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":49.888889,"pollRep":46.111111,"pollMargin":3.777778,"actualDem":52.356249,"actualRep":45.675316,"actualMargin":6.680934,"actualDRShare":98.031565,"signedError":-2.903156,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.903156,"individualPollMAE":2.903156,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.680934,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"42","pollster":"CallFire","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.680934,"selectedQuestionIds":["36484"],"selectedPollIds":["30409"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-5.680934,"selectedQuestionIds":["36357"],"selectedPollIds":["30323"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.680934,"selectedQuestionIds":["36520"],"selectedPollIds":["30433"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-3.680934,"selectedQuestionIds":["36343"],"selectedPollIds":["30314"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.680934,"selectedQuestionIds":["36736"],"selectedPollIds":["30564"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.680934,"selectedQuestionIds":["37094"],"selectedPollIds":["30755"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-4.680934,"selectedQuestionIds":["36319"],"selectedPollIds":["30266"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.680934,"selectedQuestionIds":["36661"],"selectedPollIds":["30492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.680934,"selectedQuestionIds":["36997"],"selectedPollIds":["30706"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"687","race":"2012_Pres-G_NY","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":60.0,"pollRep":34.666667,"pollMargin":25.333333,"actualDem":62.835559,"actualRep":34.923527,"actualMargin":27.912032,"actualDRShare":97.759086,"signedError":-2.578698,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.578698,"individualPollMAE":3.304011,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":29.519362,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-1.60733,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":-3.912032,"selectedQuestionIds":["36376"],"selectedPollIds":["30337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":1.087968,"selectedQuestionIds":["36418"],"selectedPollIds":["30372"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":-4.912032,"selectedQuestionIds":["36973"],"selectedPollIds":["30694"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"688","race":"2012_Pres-G_OH","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":49.21,"pollRep":46.095,"pollMargin":3.115,"actualDem":50.666748,"actualRep":47.688441,"actualMargin":2.978307,"actualDRShare":98.355189,"signedError":0.136693,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.136693,"individualPollMAE":1.769339,"n":20,"pollsters":20,"sourceQuestions":35,"selectedQuestions":21,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.978307,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.978307,"selectedQuestionIds":["36371"],"selectedPollIds":["30333"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.021693,"selectedQuestionIds":["37148"],"selectedPollIds":["30794"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.021693,"selectedQuestionIds":["36808"],"selectedPollIds":["30607"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"55","pollster":"Clout Research","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-5.978307,"selectedQuestionIds":["37207"],"selectedPollIds":["30557"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.978307,"selectedQuestionIds":["36930"],"selectedPollIds":["30673"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.978307,"selectedQuestionIds":["37111"],"selectedPollIds":["30769"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.021693,"selectedQuestionIds":["36852"],"selectedPollIds":["30635"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.021693,"selectedQuestionIds":["37131"],"selectedPollIds":["30783"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.021693,"selectedQuestionIds":["36833"],"selectedPollIds":["30627"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.021693,"selectedQuestionIds":["36549"],"selectedPollIds":["30450"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.021693,"selectedQuestionIds":["37047"],"selectedPollIds":["30741"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"265","pollster":"Purple Strategies","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.978307,"selectedQuestionIds":["36380"],"selectedPollIds":["30341"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.021693,"selectedQuestionIds":["142764","36604"],"selectedPollIds":["30483","74933"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.978307,"selectedQuestionIds":["36862"],"selectedPollIds":["30642"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.978307,"selectedQuestionIds":["37153"],"selectedPollIds":["30766"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.021693,"selectedQuestionIds":["37102"],"selectedPollIds":["30761"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":1.5,"signedError":-1.478307,"selectedQuestionIds":["37122"],"selectedPollIds":["30777"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":4.4,"signedError":1.421693,"selectedQuestionIds":["36786"],"selectedPollIds":["30594"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.021693,"selectedQuestionIds":["36995"],"selectedPollIds":["30705"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":7.4,"signedError":4.421693,"selectedQuestionIds":["150610"],"selectedPollIds":["30805"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"69","race":"2016_Sen-G_AK","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Ray Metcalfe","republican":"Lisa Murkowski","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-22.0,"actualDem":11.623389,"actualRep":44.358,"actualMargin":-32.734611,"actualDRShare":55.98139,"signedError":10.734611,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.734611,"individualPollMAE":10.734611,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-32.734611,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":10.734611,"selectedQuestionIds":["76517"],"selectedPollIds":["48861"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"690","race":"2012_Pres-G_OR","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":48.75,"pollRep":42.75,"pollMargin":6.0,"actualDem":54.239327,"actualRep":42.149871,"actualMargin":12.089455,"actualDRShare":96.389198,"signedError":-6.089455,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.089455,"individualPollMAE":6.089455,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.089455,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-5.089455,"selectedQuestionIds":["36594"],"selectedPollIds":["30478"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"87","pollster":"Elway Research","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-6.089455,"selectedQuestionIds":["36528"],"selectedPollIds":["30437"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"141","pollster":"Hoffman Research Group","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-7.089455,"selectedQuestionIds":["36560"],"selectedPollIds":["30458"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-6.089455,"selectedQuestionIds":["143098"],"selectedPollIds":["75054"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"691","race":"2012_Pres-G_PA","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":49.8,"pollRep":45.6,"pollMargin":4.2,"actualDem":52.076858,"actualRep":46.680866,"actualMargin":5.395992,"actualDRShare":98.757724,"signedError":-1.195992,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.195992,"individualPollMAE":1.958397,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.385085,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.010907,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.395992,"selectedQuestionIds":["37117"],"selectedPollIds":["30774"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.395992,"selectedQuestionIds":["36608"],"selectedPollIds":["30485"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"119","pollster":"Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer)","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.604008,"selectedQuestionIds":["36396"],"selectedPollIds":["30356"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.395992,"selectedQuestionIds":["37126"],"selectedPollIds":["30780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.395992,"selectedQuestionIds":["36938"],"selectedPollIds":["30678"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.604008,"selectedQuestionIds":["36914"],"selectedPollIds":["30665"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.395992,"selectedQuestionIds":["36871"],"selectedPollIds":["30648"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.395992,"selectedQuestionIds":["36365"],"selectedPollIds":["30294"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.395992,"selectedQuestionIds":["36929"],"selectedPollIds":["30631"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":2.604008,"selectedQuestionIds":["36971"],"selectedPollIds":["30693"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"692","race":"2012_Pres-G_RI","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":62.700959,"actualRep":35.243662,"actualMargin":27.457297,"actualDRShare":97.94462,"signedError":-6.457297,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.457297,"individualPollMAE":6.457297,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-26","2012-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":27.37255,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.084747,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"96","pollster":"Fleming & Associates","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-6.457297,"selectedQuestionIds":["36705"],"selectedPollIds":["30488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"694","race":"2012_Pres-G_SD","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":39.866141,"actualRep":57.889312,"actualMargin":-18.023171,"actualDRShare":97.755453,"signedError":6.023171,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.023171,"individualPollMAE":6.023171,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-11-02","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-18.023171,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"231","pollster":"Nielson Brothers Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":6.023171,"selectedQuestionIds":["37144"],"selectedPollIds":["30790"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"695","race":"2012_Pres-G_TN","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-11.0,"actualDem":39.075815,"actualRep":59.478715,"actualMargin":-20.4029,"actualDRShare":98.55453,"signedError":9.4029,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.4029,"individualPollMAE":9.4029,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-11-02","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.4029,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":9.4029,"selectedQuestionIds":["36965"],"selectedPollIds":["30690"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"696","race":"2012_Pres-G_TX","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":41.383358,"actualRep":57.166977,"actualMargin":-15.783619,"actualDRShare":98.550336,"signedError":-3.216381,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.216381,"individualPollMAE":3.216381,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-11-02","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.783619,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-3.216381,"selectedQuestionIds":["36967"],"selectedPollIds":["30691"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"697","race":"2012_Pres-G_UT","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":26.0,"pollRep":69.0,"pollMargin":-43.0,"actualDem":24.749666,"actualRep":72.790533,"actualMargin":-48.040867,"actualDRShare":97.540199,"signedError":5.040867,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.040867,"individualPollMAE":5.040867,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2012-10-29","2012-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-48.040867,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":-43.0,"signedError":5.040867,"selectedQuestionIds":["36847"],"selectedPollIds":["30618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"698","race":"2012_Pres-G_VA","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":47.95625,"pollRep":47.06875,"pollMargin":0.8875,"actualDem":51.156457,"actualRep":47.283103,"actualMargin":3.873354,"actualDRShare":98.43956,"signedError":-2.985854,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.985854,"individualPollMAE":3.017515,"n":16,"pollsters":16,"sourceQuestions":25,"selectedQuestions":16,"dateRange":["2012-10-23","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.873354,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.126646,"selectedQuestionIds":["36442"],"selectedPollIds":["30374"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2012-10-23","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-5.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["36340"],"selectedPollIds":["30311"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"412","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang/Global Strategy Group","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["150765"],"selectedPollIds":["77967"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2012-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["36412"],"selectedPollIds":["30369"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["37127"],"selectedPollIds":["30781"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["37056"],"selectedPollIds":["30746"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"205","pollster":"Mellman Group","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["37097"],"selectedPollIds":["30757"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.126646,"selectedQuestionIds":["37049"],"selectedPollIds":["30742"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"265","pollster":"Purple Strategies","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["36381"],"selectedPollIds":["30342"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["36606"],"selectedPollIds":["30484"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["36875"],"selectedPollIds":["30646"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2012-10-25","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-8.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["36599"],"selectedPollIds":["30481"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-5.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["150764"],"selectedPollIds":["30791"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":0.9,"signedError":-2.973354,"selectedQuestionIds":["36785"],"selectedPollIds":["30593"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.873354,"selectedQuestionIds":["37001"],"selectedPollIds":["30708"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":0.3,"signedError":-3.573354,"selectedQuestionIds":["150600"],"selectedPollIds":["77904"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"70","race":"2016_Sen-G_MO","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Jason Kander","republican":"Roy Blunt","pollDem":45.166667,"pollRep":45.755556,"pollMargin":-0.588889,"actualDem":46.391957,"actualRep":49.184252,"actualMargin":-2.792295,"actualDRShare":95.576208,"signedError":2.203406,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.203406,"individualPollMAE":2.517942,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-2.792295,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"20","pollster":"BK Strategies","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-0.207705,"selectedQuestionIds":["74896"],"selectedPollIds":["47860"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"52","pollster":"Clarity Campaign Labs","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.792295,"selectedQuestionIds":["76174"],"selectedPollIds":["48622"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"69","pollster":"DFM Research","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":2.792295,"selectedQuestionIds":["75381"],"selectedPollIds":["48121"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":0.7,"signedError":3.492295,"selectedQuestionIds":["76050"],"selectedPollIds":["48518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.792295,"selectedQuestionIds":["74548"],"selectedPollIds":["47629"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.792295,"selectedQuestionIds":["75056"],"selectedPollIds":["47996"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.792295,"selectedQuestionIds":["75704"],"selectedPollIds":["48119"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.207705,"selectedQuestionIds":["75459"],"selectedPollIds":["48186"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":9.792295,"selectedQuestionIds":["76534"],"selectedPollIds":["48885"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"700","race":"2012_Pres-G_WA","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":54.525,"pollRep":40.6,"pollMargin":13.925,"actualDem":56.163398,"actualRep":41.294621,"actualMargin":14.868777,"actualDRShare":97.45802,"signedError":-0.943777,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.943777,"individualPollMAE":3.859388,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":14.868777,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-7.868777,"selectedQuestionIds":["36909"],"selectedPollIds":["30662"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.868777,"selectedQuestionIds":["36709"],"selectedPollIds":["30543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"364","pollster":"University of Washington Center for Survey Research","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":20.7,"signedError":5.831223,"selectedQuestionIds":["36731"],"selectedPollIds":["30562"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.868777,"selectedQuestionIds":["36969"],"selectedPollIds":["30692"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"701","race":"2012_Pres-G_WI","series":"presidential-state","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"Mitt Romney","pollDem":50.136364,"pollRep":45.618182,"pollMargin":4.518182,"actualDem":52.776163,"actualRep":45.938347,"actualMargin":6.837816,"actualDRShare":98.714509,"signedError":-2.319634,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.319634,"individualPollMAE":2.953553,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":16,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2012-10-27","2012-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.837816,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":0.162184,"selectedQuestionIds":["37091"],"selectedPollIds":["30753"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"55","pollster":"Clout Research","date":"2012-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-4.837816,"selectedQuestionIds":["36724"],"selectedPollIds":["30556"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.837816,"selectedQuestionIds":["36853"],"selectedPollIds":["30636"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2012-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-3.837816,"selectedQuestionIds":["36695"],"selectedPollIds":["30534"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":1.162184,"selectedQuestionIds":["36757"],"selectedPollIds":["30500"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-3.837816,"selectedQuestionIds":["36916"],"selectedPollIds":["30666"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-5.837816,"selectedQuestionIds":["36865"],"selectedPollIds":["30644"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-6.837816,"selectedQuestionIds":["36775"],"selectedPollIds":["30536"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"313","pollster":"St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":2.162184,"selectedQuestionIds":["36722"],"selectedPollIds":["30554"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"376","pollster":"We Ask America","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":6.7,"signedError":-0.137816,"selectedQuestionIds":["36784"],"selectedPollIds":["30592"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.837816,"selectedQuestionIds":["36993"],"selectedPollIds":["30704"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"704","race":"2008_Pres-G_AK","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":40.72,"pollRep":54.26,"pollMargin":-13.54,"actualDem":37.889374,"actualRep":59.42452,"actualMargin":-21.535146,"actualDRShare":97.313893,"signedError":7.995146,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.995146,"individualPollMAE":7.995146,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-21.535146,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":9.535146,"selectedQuestionIds":["116955"],"selectedPollIds":["63531"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"79","pollster":"Dittman Research","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":2.535146,"selectedQuestionIds":["21446"],"selectedPollIds":["16549"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"136","pollster":"Hays Research Group","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":-3.7,"signedError":17.835146,"selectedQuestionIds":["21310"],"selectedPollIds":["16413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":5.535146,"selectedQuestionIds":["21495"],"selectedPollIds":["16598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":4.535146,"selectedQuestionIds":["21346"],"selectedPollIds":["16449"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"705","race":"2008_Pres-G_AL","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":37.5,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-21.5,"actualDem":38.740434,"actualRep":60.316913,"actualMargin":-21.576479,"actualDRShare":99.057347,"signedError":0.076479,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.076479,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-21.576479,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-25.0,"signedError":-3.423521,"selectedQuestionIds":["21504"],"selectedPollIds":["16607"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":3.576479,"selectedQuestionIds":["21370"],"selectedPollIds":["16473"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"706","race":"2008_Pres-G_AR","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":52.666667,"pollMargin":-9.666667,"actualDem":38.86466,"actualRep":58.715904,"actualMargin":-19.851245,"actualDRShare":97.580564,"signedError":10.184578,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.184578,"individualPollMAE":10.184578,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.851245,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":12.851245,"selectedQuestionIds":["21396"],"selectedPollIds":["16499"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":9.851245,"selectedQuestionIds":["21526"],"selectedPollIds":["16620"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":7.851245,"selectedQuestionIds":["21348"],"selectedPollIds":["16451"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"707","race":"2008_Pres-G_AZ","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":44.25,"pollRep":48.875,"pollMargin":-4.625,"actualDem":45.115251,"actualRep":53.635248,"actualMargin":-8.519997,"actualDRShare":98.750499,"signedError":3.894997,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.894997,"individualPollMAE":3.894997,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.519997,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":4.519997,"selectedQuestionIds":["21411"],"selectedPollIds":["16514"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"15","pollster":"Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":6.519997,"selectedQuestionIds":["21548"],"selectedPollIds":["16638"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":2.519997,"selectedQuestionIds":["21507"],"selectedPollIds":["16579"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"129","pollster":"Grove Insight","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":4.519997,"selectedQuestionIds":["21600"],"selectedPollIds":["16690"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":4.519997,"selectedQuestionIds":["21491"],"selectedPollIds":["16594"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"234","pollster":"Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":0.519997,"selectedQuestionIds":["21524"],"selectedPollIds":["16618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":3.519997,"selectedQuestionIds":["21566"],"selectedPollIds":["16656"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":4.519997,"selectedQuestionIds":["21366"],"selectedPollIds":["16469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"708","race":"2008_Pres-G_CA","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":57.75,"pollRep":35.75,"pollMargin":22.0,"actualDem":61.012638,"actualRep":36.954859,"actualMargin":24.05778,"actualDRShare":97.967497,"signedError":-2.05778,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.05778,"individualPollMAE":3.52889,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-10-23","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":24.05778,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-2.05778,"selectedQuestionIds":["21484"],"selectedPollIds":["16587"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":27.0,"signedError":2.94222,"selectedQuestionIds":["21595"],"selectedPollIds":["16685"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":-0.05778,"selectedQuestionIds":["21405"],"selectedPollIds":["16508"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-9.05778,"selectedQuestionIds":["21378"],"selectedPollIds":["16481"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"709","race":"2008_Pres-G_CO","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":51.363636,"pollRep":43.454545,"pollMargin":7.909091,"actualDem":53.660237,"actualRep":44.707522,"actualMargin":8.952715,"actualDRShare":98.367759,"signedError":-1.043624,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.043624,"individualPollMAE":2.896195,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.952715,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-1.952715,"selectedQuestionIds":["21412"],"selectedPollIds":["16515"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-1.952715,"selectedQuestionIds":["21508"],"selectedPollIds":["16576"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"812","pollster":"FTI Consulting","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-4.952715,"selectedQuestionIds":["21519"],"selectedPollIds":["16613"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":0.047285,"selectedQuestionIds":["21542"],"selectedPollIds":["16632"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-0.952715,"selectedQuestionIds":["21557"],"selectedPollIds":["16647"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-2.952715,"selectedQuestionIds":["21486"],"selectedPollIds":["16589"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-3.952715,"selectedQuestionIds":["21449"],"selectedPollIds":["16552"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":3.047285,"selectedQuestionIds":["149515","21617"],"selectedPollIds":["16707","63708"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":1.047285,"selectedQuestionIds":["21427"],"selectedPollIds":["16530"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-4.952715,"selectedQuestionIds":["21305"],"selectedPollIds":["16408"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":6.047285,"selectedQuestionIds":["21371"],"selectedPollIds":["16474"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"71","race":"2016_Sen-G_WI","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Russ Feingold","republican":"Ron Johnson","pollDem":47.8,"pollRep":45.333333,"pollMargin":2.466667,"actualDem":46.810995,"actualRep":50.172972,"actualMargin":-3.361977,"actualDRShare":96.983967,"signedError":5.828644,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.828644,"individualPollMAE":5.828644,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-3.361977,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"52","pollster":"Clarity Campaign Labs","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":6.361977,"selectedQuestionIds":["76173"],"selectedPollIds":["48621"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":8.361977,"selectedQuestionIds":["74746"],"selectedPollIds":["47758"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":1.8,"signedError":5.161977,"selectedQuestionIds":["75717"],"selectedPollIds":["48334"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":4.361977,"selectedQuestionIds":["75265"],"selectedPollIds":["48095"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":8.361977,"selectedQuestionIds":["75709"],"selectedPollIds":["48330"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.361977,"selectedQuestionIds":["76549"],"selectedPollIds":["48909"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"710","race":"2008_Pres-G_CT","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":60.58883,"actualRep":38.221463,"actualMargin":22.367366,"actualDRShare":98.810293,"signedError":-1.367366,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.367366,"individualPollMAE":1.367366,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":22.367298,"outcomeMarginCorrection":6.8e-05,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-1.367366,"selectedQuestionIds":["21358"],"selectedPollIds":["16461"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"711","race":"2008_Pres-G_DC","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"DC","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":81.0,"pollRep":15.0,"pollMargin":66.0,"actualDem":92.45711,"actualRep":6.532557,"actualMargin":85.924552,"actualDRShare":98.989667,"signedError":-19.924552,"absoluteAverageMiss":19.924552,"individualPollMAE":19.924552,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":85.924552,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":66.0,"signedError":-19.924552,"selectedQuestionIds":["149523"],"selectedPollIds":["77459"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"712","race":"2008_Pres-G_DE","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"DE","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":61.0,"pollRep":35.0,"pollMargin":26.0,"actualDem":61.942669,"actualRep":36.947034,"actualMargin":24.995635,"actualDRShare":98.889703,"signedError":1.004365,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.004365,"individualPollMAE":4.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":24.995635,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":5.004365,"selectedQuestionIds":["21505"],"selectedPollIds":["16608"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-2.995635,"selectedQuestionIds":["21363"],"selectedPollIds":["16466"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"713","race":"2008_Pres-G_FL","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":48.117647,"pollRep":45.294118,"pollMargin":2.823529,"actualDem":51.033305,"actualRep":48.215319,"actualMargin":2.817986,"actualDRShare":99.248624,"signedError":0.005543,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.005543,"individualPollMAE":2.026703,"n":17,"pollsters":17,"sourceQuestions":24,"selectedQuestions":17,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.817986,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.182014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21395"],"selectedPollIds":["16498"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.182014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21509"],"selectedPollIds":["16580"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"75","pollster":"Datamar Analytics","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-3.817986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21303"],"selectedPollIds":["16406"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"812","pollster":"FTI Consulting","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.817986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21518"],"selectedPollIds":["16612"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"90","pollster":"Fabrizio, Lee & Associates","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.182014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21521"],"selectedPollIds":["16615"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.817986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21543"],"selectedPollIds":["16633"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.817986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21631"],"selectedPollIds":["16721"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":6.182014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21537"],"selectedPollIds":["16626"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.817986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21450"],"selectedPollIds":["16553"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.817986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21316"],"selectedPollIds":["16419"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.817986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21322"],"selectedPollIds":["16425"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"302","pollster":"SEA Polling & Strategic Design","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":4.182014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21639"],"selectedPollIds":["16729"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-3.817986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21307"],"selectedPollIds":["16410"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.182014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21581"],"selectedPollIds":["16671"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.182014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21302"],"selectedPollIds":["16405"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.817986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21384"],"selectedPollIds":["16487"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.817986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21299"],"selectedPollIds":["16402"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"714","race":"2008_Pres-G_GA","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":46.142857,"pollRep":50.142857,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":46.990179,"actualRep":52.204518,"actualMargin":-5.214339,"actualDRShare":99.194697,"signedError":1.214339,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.214339,"individualPollMAE":1.949002,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.214339,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.214339,"selectedQuestionIds":["21510"],"selectedPollIds":["16584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":4.214339,"selectedQuestionIds":["21311"],"selectedPollIds":["16414"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-0.785661,"selectedQuestionIds":["21604"],"selectedPollIds":["16694"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":3.214339,"selectedQuestionIds":["21314"],"selectedPollIds":["16417"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":0.214339,"selectedQuestionIds":["21434"],"selectedPollIds":["16537"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-1.785661,"selectedQuestionIds":["21335"],"selectedPollIds":["16438"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":2.214339,"selectedQuestionIds":["21372"],"selectedPollIds":["16475"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"715","race":"2008_Pres-G_HI","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":56.0,"pollRep":34.0,"pollMargin":22.0,"actualDem":71.45291,"actualRep":26.436202,"actualMargin":45.016708,"actualDRShare":97.889112,"signedError":-23.016708,"absoluteAverageMiss":23.016708,"individualPollMAE":23.016708,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":45.264437,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.247728,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-23.016708,"selectedQuestionIds":["21345"],"selectedPollIds":["16448"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"716","race":"2008_Pres-G_IA","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":52.571429,"pollRep":40.428571,"pollMargin":12.142857,"actualDem":53.92802,"actualRep":44.393259,"actualMargin":9.534761,"actualDRShare":98.321279,"signedError":2.608096,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.608096,"individualPollMAE":3.046599,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.534761,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"31","pollster":"Big Ten","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":3.465239,"selectedQuestionIds":["21619"],"selectedPollIds":["16709"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":0.465239,"selectedQuestionIds":["21602"],"selectedPollIds":["16692"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":1.465239,"selectedQuestionIds":["21605"],"selectedPollIds":["16695"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-1.534761,"selectedQuestionIds":["21611"],"selectedPollIds":["16701"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":7.465239,"selectedQuestionIds":["21400"],"selectedPollIds":["16503"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":5.465239,"selectedQuestionIds":["21469"],"selectedPollIds":["16572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":1.465239,"selectedQuestionIds":["21349"],"selectedPollIds":["16452"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"717","race":"2008_Pres-G_ID","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":34.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-23.0,"actualDem":36.090988,"actualRep":61.517091,"actualMargin":-25.426104,"actualDRShare":97.608079,"signedError":2.426104,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.426104,"individualPollMAE":2.426104,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-25.426104,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"134","pollster":"Harstad Strategic Research","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":2.426104,"selectedQuestionIds":["21629"],"selectedPollIds":["16719"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":2.426104,"selectedQuestionIds":["21359"],"selectedPollIds":["16462"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"718","race":"2008_Pres-G_IL","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":59.666667,"pollRep":36.333333,"pollMargin":23.333333,"actualDem":61.918115,"actualRep":36.780923,"actualMargin":25.137192,"actualDRShare":98.699037,"signedError":-1.803859,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.803859,"individualPollMAE":4.379064,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":25.137192,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"31","pollster":"Big Ten","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":3.862808,"selectedQuestionIds":["21622"],"selectedPollIds":["16712"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-3.137192,"selectedQuestionIds":["21339"],"selectedPollIds":["16442"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-6.137192,"selectedQuestionIds":["21385"],"selectedPollIds":["16488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"719","race":"2008_Pres-G_IN","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":46.888889,"pollRep":47.666667,"pollMargin":-0.777778,"actualDem":49.945912,"actualRep":48.913907,"actualMargin":1.032004,"actualDRShare":98.859819,"signedError":-1.809782,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.809782,"individualPollMAE":3.580448,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.032004,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.032004,"selectedQuestionIds":["21397"],"selectedPollIds":["16500"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"31","pollster":"Big Ten","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":7.967996,"selectedQuestionIds":["21621"],"selectedPollIds":["16711"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"142","pollster":"Howey Politics/DePauw University","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-3.032004,"selectedQuestionIds":["21599"],"selectedPollIds":["16689"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-0.032004,"selectedQuestionIds":["21315"],"selectedPollIds":["16418"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-4.032004,"selectedQuestionIds":["21458"],"selectedPollIds":["16561"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-0.032004,"selectedQuestionIds":["21485"],"selectedPollIds":["16588"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.032004,"selectedQuestionIds":["21422"],"selectedPollIds":["16525"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-9.032004,"selectedQuestionIds":["21391"],"selectedPollIds":["16494"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-6.032004,"selectedQuestionIds":["21294"],"selectedPollIds":["16397"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"72","race":"2016_Sen-G_WA","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Patty Murray","republican":"Chris Vance","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":38.333333,"pollMargin":16.666667,"actualDem":59.01301,"actualRep":40.98699,"actualMargin":18.026021,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-1.359354,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.359354,"individualPollMAE":4.008674,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-11-01","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":18.026021,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"572","pollster":"Leger","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-2.026021,"selectedQuestionIds":["76608"],"selectedPollIds":["48915"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":3.973979,"selectedQuestionIds":["76548"],"selectedPollIds":["48907"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-6.026021,"selectedQuestionIds":["75832"],"selectedPollIds":["48365"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"720","race":"2008_Pres-G_KS","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-16.0,"actualDem":41.651967,"actualRep":56.612254,"actualMargin":-14.960287,"actualDRShare":98.264222,"signedError":-1.039713,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.039713,"individualPollMAE":5.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.960287,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-6.039713,"selectedQuestionIds":["21502"],"selectedPollIds":["16605"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":3.960287,"selectedQuestionIds":["21350"],"selectedPollIds":["16453"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"721","race":"2008_Pres-G_KY","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":41.5,"pollRep":53.75,"pollMargin":-12.25,"actualDem":41.168114,"actualRep":57.399021,"actualMargin":-16.230907,"actualDRShare":98.567135,"signedError":3.980907,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.980907,"individualPollMAE":3.980907,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-16.230907,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":7.230907,"selectedQuestionIds":["21455"],"selectedPollIds":["16558"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":4.230907,"selectedQuestionIds":["21460"],"selectedPollIds":["16563"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":0.230907,"selectedQuestionIds":["21344"],"selectedPollIds":["16447"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":4.230907,"selectedQuestionIds":["21351"],"selectedPollIds":["16454"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"722","race":"2008_Pres-G_LA","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"LA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":41.075,"pollRep":50.65,"pollMargin":-9.575,"actualDem":39.932914,"actualRep":58.562721,"actualMargin":-18.629808,"actualDRShare":98.495635,"signedError":9.054808,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.054808,"individualPollMAE":9.054808,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-18.629808,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"85","pollster":"Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":15.629808,"selectedQuestionIds":["21589"],"selectedPollIds":["16679"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":2.629808,"selectedQuestionIds":["21666"],"selectedPollIds":["16756"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"309","pollster":"Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":-12.3,"signedError":6.329808,"selectedQuestionIds":["21618"],"selectedPollIds":["16708"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":11.629808,"selectedQuestionIds":["21364"],"selectedPollIds":["16467"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"723","race":"2008_Pres-G_MA","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":55.333333,"pollRep":37.333333,"pollMargin":18.0,"actualDem":61.363199,"actualRep":35.734959,"actualMargin":25.62824,"actualDRShare":97.098158,"signedError":-7.62824,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.62824,"individualPollMAE":7.62824,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":25.62824,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-6.62824,"selectedQuestionIds":["21645"],"selectedPollIds":["16735"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":-8.62824,"selectedQuestionIds":["21503"],"selectedPollIds":["16606"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-7.62824,"selectedQuestionIds":["21373"],"selectedPollIds":["16476"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"724","race":"2008_Pres-G_MD","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":60.0,"pollRep":35.0,"pollMargin":25.0,"actualDem":61.919345,"actualRep":36.47452,"actualMargin":25.444825,"actualDRShare":98.393864,"signedError":-0.444825,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.444825,"individualPollMAE":0.444825,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":25.444825,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":-0.444825,"selectedQuestionIds":["21379"],"selectedPollIds":["16482"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"725","race":"2008_Pres-G_ME","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":14.0,"actualDem":57.705737,"actualRep":40.384018,"actualMargin":17.321719,"actualDRShare":98.089756,"signedError":-3.321719,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.321719,"individualPollMAE":5.10724,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":17.321719,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-4.321719,"selectedQuestionIds":["21340"],"selectedPollIds":["16443"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":2.678281,"selectedQuestionIds":["21404"],"selectedPollIds":["16507"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-8.321719,"selectedQuestionIds":["21352"],"selectedPollIds":["16455"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"726","race":"2008_Pres-G_MI","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":39.428571,"pollMargin":14.571429,"actualDem":57.433247,"actualRep":40.959706,"actualMargin":16.473542,"actualDRShare":98.392953,"signedError":-1.902113,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.902113,"individualPollMAE":3.481101,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.472982,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.00056,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"31","pollster":"Big Ten","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":5.526458,"selectedQuestionIds":["21624"],"selectedPollIds":["16714"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-4.473542,"selectedQuestionIds":["21483"],"selectedPollIds":["16586"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2008-11-03","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-0.473542,"selectedQuestionIds":["21292"],"selectedPollIds":["16395"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-3.473542,"selectedQuestionIds":["21425"],"selectedPollIds":["16528"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-6.473542,"selectedQuestionIds":["21496"],"selectedPollIds":["16599"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-0.473542,"selectedQuestionIds":["21402"],"selectedPollIds":["16505"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-3.473542,"selectedQuestionIds":["21386"],"selectedPollIds":["16489"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"727","race":"2008_Pres-G_MN","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":53.25,"pollRep":41.5,"pollMargin":11.75,"actualDem":54.060293,"actualRep":43.822931,"actualMargin":10.237362,"actualDRShare":97.883224,"signedError":1.512638,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.512638,"individualPollMAE":4.94066,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.237362,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"31","pollster":"Big Ten","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":8.762638,"selectedQuestionIds":["21626"],"selectedPollIds":["16716"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.237362,"selectedQuestionIds":["21492"],"selectedPollIds":["16595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":0.762638,"selectedQuestionIds":["21403"],"selectedPollIds":["16506"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":5.762638,"selectedQuestionIds":["21426"],"selectedPollIds":["16529"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":1.762638,"selectedQuestionIds":["21497"],"selectedPollIds":["16600"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-7.237362,"selectedQuestionIds":["21343"],"selectedPollIds":["16446"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"143","pollster":"University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":8.762638,"selectedQuestionIds":["21488"],"selectedPollIds":["16591"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-4.237362,"selectedQuestionIds":["21374"],"selectedPollIds":["16477"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"728","race":"2008_Pres-G_MO","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":47.666667,"pollRep":48.555556,"pollMargin":-0.888889,"actualDem":49.292648,"actualRep":49.426074,"actualMargin":-0.133427,"actualDRShare":98.718722,"signedError":-0.755462,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.755462,"individualPollMAE":0.903714,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.133427,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.133427,"selectedQuestionIds":["21413"],"selectedPollIds":["16516"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-1.866573,"selectedQuestionIds":["21511"],"selectedPollIds":["16581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-2.866573,"selectedQuestionIds":["21456"],"selectedPollIds":["16559"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-0.866573,"selectedQuestionIds":["21451"],"selectedPollIds":["16554"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.133427,"selectedQuestionIds":["21321"],"selectedPollIds":["16424"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.133427,"selectedQuestionIds":["21306"],"selectedPollIds":["16409"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.133427,"selectedQuestionIds":["21336"],"selectedPollIds":["16439"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-1.866573,"selectedQuestionIds":["21387"],"selectedPollIds":["16490"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.133427,"selectedQuestionIds":["21298"],"selectedPollIds":["16401"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"729","race":"2008_Pres-G_MS","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MS","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":43.5,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-10.5,"actualDem":43.001554,"actualRep":56.176189,"actualMargin":-13.174635,"actualDRShare":99.177743,"signedError":2.674635,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.674635,"individualPollMAE":2.674635,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-13.174635,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":5.174635,"selectedQuestionIds":["21527"],"selectedPollIds":["16621"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":0.174635,"selectedQuestionIds":["21376"],"selectedPollIds":["16479"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"73","race":"2016_Sen-G_UT","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Misty Katherine Snow","republican":"Mike Lee","pollDem":27.2,"pollRep":62.2,"pollMargin":-35.0,"actualDem":27.057891,"actualRep":68.14589,"actualMargin":-41.087999,"actualDRShare":95.203781,"signedError":6.087999,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.087999,"individualPollMAE":8.052799,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-41.087999,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":8.087999,"selectedQuestionIds":["75471"],"selectedPollIds":["48191"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":9.087999,"selectedQuestionIds":["75582"],"selectedPollIds":["48193"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":17.087999,"selectedQuestionIds":["76546"],"selectedPollIds":["48904"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"389","pollster":"Y2 Analytics","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-40.0,"signedError":1.087999,"selectedQuestionIds":["75937"],"selectedPollIds":["48339"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-46.0,"signedError":-4.912001,"selectedQuestionIds":["76256"],"selectedPollIds":["48684"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"730","race":"2008_Pres-G_MT","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":45.6,"pollRep":49.6,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":47.268465,"actualRep":49.532451,"actualMargin":-2.263986,"actualDRShare":96.800916,"signedError":-1.736014,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.736014,"individualPollMAE":3.041608,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.263095,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.000891,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-0.736014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21410"],"selectedPollIds":["16513"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.736014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21591"],"selectedPollIds":["16681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.263986,"selectedQuestionIds":["21313"],"selectedPollIds":["16416"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.736014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21459"],"selectedPollIds":["16562"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-7.736014,"selectedQuestionIds":["21388"],"selectedPollIds":["16491"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"731","race":"2008_Pres-G_NC","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":48.384615,"pollRep":46.846154,"pollMargin":1.538462,"actualDem":49.703666,"actualRep":49.374799,"actualMargin":0.328868,"actualDRShare":99.078465,"signedError":1.209594,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.209594,"individualPollMAE":2.385646,"n":13,"pollsters":13,"sourceQuestions":20,"selectedQuestions":13,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.328873,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-5e-06,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.671132,"selectedQuestionIds":["21290"],"selectedPollIds":["16393"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.671132,"selectedQuestionIds":["21482"],"selectedPollIds":["16585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"86","pollster":"Elon University","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":6.671132,"selectedQuestionIds":["116966"],"selectedPollIds":["63540"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"812","pollster":"FTI Consulting","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.671132,"selectedQuestionIds":["21516"],"selectedPollIds":["16610"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.671132,"selectedQuestionIds":["21547"],"selectedPollIds":["16637"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.328868,"selectedQuestionIds":["21457"],"selectedPollIds":["16560"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.328868,"selectedQuestionIds":["21453"],"selectedPollIds":["16556"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.671132,"selectedQuestionIds":["21320"],"selectedPollIds":["16423"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-1.328868,"selectedQuestionIds":["21309"],"selectedPollIds":["16412"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-1.328868,"selectedQuestionIds":["21332"],"selectedPollIds":["16435"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"334","pollster":"The Tyson Group","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.671132,"selectedQuestionIds":["21440"],"selectedPollIds":["16543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.671132,"selectedQuestionIds":["21392"],"selectedPollIds":["16495"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-1.328868,"selectedQuestionIds":["21300"],"selectedPollIds":["16403"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"732","race":"2008_Pres-G_ND","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ND","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":44.62054,"actualRep":53.2501,"actualMargin":-8.62956,"actualDRShare":97.87064,"signedError":1.62956,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.62956,"individualPollMAE":1.62956,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.62956,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":1.62956,"selectedQuestionIds":["21347"],"selectedPollIds":["16450"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"733","race":"2008_Pres-G_NE","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":41.598266,"actualRep":56.531853,"actualMargin":-14.933588,"actualDRShare":98.130119,"signedError":-4.066412,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.066412,"individualPollMAE":4.066412,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.933588,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-4.066412,"selectedQuestionIds":["21360"],"selectedPollIds":["16463"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"734","race":"2008_Pres-G_NH","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":52.3,"pollRep":41.4,"pollMargin":10.9,"actualDem":54.126897,"actualRep":44.521428,"actualMargin":9.605469,"actualDRShare":98.648326,"signedError":1.294531,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.294531,"individualPollMAE":3.857813,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.605469,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":5.394531,"selectedQuestionIds":["21414"],"selectedPollIds":["16517"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":8.394531,"selectedQuestionIds":["21544"],"selectedPollIds":["16634"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-4.605469,"selectedQuestionIds":["21603"],"selectedPollIds":["16693"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":1.394531,"selectedQuestionIds":["21592"],"selectedPollIds":["16682"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-5.605469,"selectedQuestionIds":["21633"],"selectedPollIds":["16723"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-2.605469,"selectedQuestionIds":["21430"],"selectedPollIds":["16533"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":3.394531,"selectedQuestionIds":["21466"],"selectedPollIds":["16569"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":1.394531,"selectedQuestionIds":["21437"],"selectedPollIds":["16540"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":1.394531,"selectedQuestionIds":["21337"],"selectedPollIds":["54158"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":4.394531,"selectedQuestionIds":["21361"],"selectedPollIds":["16464"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"735","race":"2008_Pres-G_NJ","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":54.4,"pollRep":38.6,"pollMargin":15.8,"actualDem":57.272137,"actualRep":41.703934,"actualMargin":15.568203,"actualDRShare":98.976071,"signedError":0.231797,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.231797,"individualPollMAE":2.913641,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.568203,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":2.431797,"selectedQuestionIds":["21447"],"selectedPollIds":["16550"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":5.431797,"selectedQuestionIds":["21401"],"selectedPollIds":["16504"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-0.568203,"selectedQuestionIds":["21325"],"selectedPollIds":["16428"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-5.568203,"selectedQuestionIds":["21438"],"selectedPollIds":["16541"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-0.568203,"selectedQuestionIds":["21365"],"selectedPollIds":["16468"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"736","race":"2008_Pres-G_NM","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":53.6,"pollRep":43.2,"pollMargin":10.4,"actualDem":56.90748,"actualRep":41.779035,"actualMargin":15.128445,"actualDRShare":98.686515,"signedError":-4.728445,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.728445,"individualPollMAE":5.477067,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.128445,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":1.871555,"selectedQuestionIds":["21428"],"selectedPollIds":["16531"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-7.128445,"selectedQuestionIds":["21409"],"selectedPollIds":["16512"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-5.128445,"selectedQuestionIds":["21494"],"selectedPollIds":["16597"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-8.128445,"selectedQuestionIds":["21407"],"selectedPollIds":["16510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-5.128445,"selectedQuestionIds":["21362"],"selectedPollIds":["16465"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"737","race":"2008_Pres-G_NV","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":50.666667,"pollRep":43.777778,"pollMargin":6.888889,"actualDem":55.146676,"actualRep":42.654115,"actualMargin":12.492561,"actualDRShare":97.800791,"signedError":-5.603672,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.603672,"individualPollMAE":5.603672,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.492561,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-7.492561,"selectedQuestionIds":["116956"],"selectedPollIds":["63532"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-5.492561,"selectedQuestionIds":["21512"],"selectedPollIds":["16578"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-0.492561,"selectedQuestionIds":["21545"],"selectedPollIds":["16635"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-8.492561,"selectedQuestionIds":["21452"],"selectedPollIds":["16555"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-8.492561,"selectedQuestionIds":["117050"],"selectedPollIds":["63598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-8.492561,"selectedQuestionIds":["21525"],"selectedPollIds":["16619"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-2.492561,"selectedQuestionIds":["21529"],"selectedPollIds":["16623"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-7.492561,"selectedQuestionIds":["21394"],"selectedPollIds":["16497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-1.492561,"selectedQuestionIds":["21295"],"selectedPollIds":["16398"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"738","race":"2008_Pres-G_NY","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":61.666667,"pollRep":33.333333,"pollMargin":28.333333,"actualDem":62.223947,"actualRep":35.648332,"actualMargin":26.575614,"actualDRShare":97.872279,"signedError":1.757719,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.757719,"individualPollMAE":6.141462,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":28.826237,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-2.250623,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":36.0,"signedError":9.424386,"selectedQuestionIds":["21630"],"selectedPollIds":["16720"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":2.424386,"selectedQuestionIds":["21506"],"selectedPollIds":["16609"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-6.575614,"selectedQuestionIds":["21381"],"selectedPollIds":["16484"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"739","race":"2008_Pres-G_OH","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":49.3125,"pollRep":44.3125,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":51.50427,"actualRep":46.910578,"actualMargin":4.593692,"actualDRShare":98.414848,"signedError":0.406308,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.406308,"individualPollMAE":2.976577,"n":16,"pollsters":16,"sourceQuestions":22,"selectedQuestions":16,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.593692,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"31","pollster":"Big Ten","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":7.406308,"selectedQuestionIds":["21623"],"selectedPollIds":["16713"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.406308,"selectedQuestionIds":["21513"],"selectedPollIds":["16577"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.406308,"selectedQuestionIds":["21399"],"selectedPollIds":["16502"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"812","pollster":"FTI Consulting","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.406308,"selectedQuestionIds":["21517"],"selectedPollIds":["16611"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.406308,"selectedQuestionIds":["21541"],"selectedPollIds":["16631"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":5.406308,"selectedQuestionIds":["21632"],"selectedPollIds":["16722"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.406308,"selectedQuestionIds":["21539"],"selectedPollIds":["16627"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.593692,"selectedQuestionIds":["21559"],"selectedPollIds":["16649"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-6.593692,"selectedQuestionIds":["21454"],"selectedPollIds":["16557"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.593692,"selectedQuestionIds":["21317"],"selectedPollIds":["16420"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.406308,"selectedQuestionIds":["21323"],"selectedPollIds":["16426"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-4.593692,"selectedQuestionIds":["21304"],"selectedPollIds":["16407"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.593692,"selectedQuestionIds":["21333"],"selectedPollIds":["16436"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.406308,"selectedQuestionIds":["21338"],"selectedPollIds":["16441"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.406308,"selectedQuestionIds":["21367"],"selectedPollIds":["16470"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.593692,"selectedQuestionIds":["21296"],"selectedPollIds":["16399"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"74","race":"2016_Sen-G_CO","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Michael Bennet","republican":"Darryl Glenn","pollDem":48.5,"pollRep":41.375,"pollMargin":7.125,"actualDem":49.970671,"actualRep":44.305693,"actualMargin":5.664978,"actualDRShare":94.276364,"signedError":1.460022,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.460022,"individualPollMAE":2.458755,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.664991,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-1.2e-05,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"51","pollster":"Ciruli Associates","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":2.335022,"selectedQuestionIds":["75388"],"selectedPollIds":["48123"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.664978,"selectedQuestionIds":["75211"],"selectedPollIds":["48079"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.664978,"selectedQuestionIds":["75834"],"selectedPollIds":["48366"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"161","pollster":"Keating Research","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":5.335022,"selectedQuestionIds":["75792"],"selectedPollIds":["48356"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"175","pollster":"Lucid","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":2.335022,"selectedQuestionIds":["75318"],"selectedPollIds":["48103"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":4.335022,"selectedQuestionIds":["75745"],"selectedPollIds":["48347"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":1.335022,"selectedQuestionIds":["76521"],"selectedPollIds":["48865"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.664978,"selectedQuestionIds":["74794"],"selectedPollIds":["47780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"740","race":"2008_Pres-G_OK","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":61.0,"pollMargin":-25.0,"actualDem":34.354919,"actualRep":65.645081,"actualMargin":-31.290162,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":6.290162,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.290162,"individualPollMAE":6.290162,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-28"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-31.290162,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":4.290162,"selectedQuestionIds":["21586"],"selectedPollIds":["16676"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-29.0,"signedError":2.290162,"selectedQuestionIds":["21468"],"selectedPollIds":["16571"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":12.290162,"selectedQuestionIds":["21393"],"selectedPollIds":["16496"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"741","race":"2008_Pres-G_OR","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":54.333333,"pollRep":39.333333,"pollMargin":15.0,"actualDem":56.748806,"actualRep":40.400982,"actualMargin":16.347825,"actualDRShare":97.149788,"signedError":-1.347825,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.347825,"individualPollMAE":3.115942,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.347825,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":2.652175,"selectedQuestionIds":["21594"],"selectedPollIds":["16684"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"217","pollster":"Moore Information Group","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-2.347825,"selectedQuestionIds":["21487"],"selectedPollIds":["16590"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-1.347825,"selectedQuestionIds":["21429"],"selectedPollIds":["16532"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-4.347825,"selectedQuestionIds":["21432"],"selectedPollIds":["16535"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":2.652175,"selectedQuestionIds":["21439"],"selectedPollIds":["16542"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-5.347825,"selectedQuestionIds":["21389"],"selectedPollIds":["16492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"742","race":"2008_Pres-G_PA","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":51.8125,"pollRep":42.75,"pollMargin":9.0625,"actualDem":54.485528,"actualRep":44.167052,"actualMargin":10.318476,"actualDRShare":98.65258,"signedError":-1.255976,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.255976,"individualPollMAE":2.471738,"n":16,"pollsters":16,"sourceQuestions":24,"selectedQuestions":16,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.318476,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-4.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21398"],"selectedPollIds":["16501"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"31","pollster":"Big Ten","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21625"],"selectedPollIds":["16715"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":1.681524,"selectedQuestionIds":["21514"],"selectedPollIds":["16582"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":2.681524,"selectedQuestionIds":["21556"],"selectedPollIds":["16646"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":1.681524,"selectedQuestionIds":["21546"],"selectedPollIds":["16636"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21558"],"selectedPollIds":["16648"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":3.681524,"selectedQuestionIds":["21560"],"selectedPollIds":["16650"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21490"],"selectedPollIds":["16593"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-4.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21312"],"selectedPollIds":["16415"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-2.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21318"],"selectedPollIds":["16421"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21324"],"selectedPollIds":["16427"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-4.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21341"],"selectedPollIds":["16444"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21301"],"selectedPollIds":["16404"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"336","pollster":"Temple University Institute for Survey Research","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21585"],"selectedPollIds":["16675"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-3.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21380"],"selectedPollIds":["16483"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.318476,"selectedQuestionIds":["21293"],"selectedPollIds":["16396"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"743","race":"2008_Pres-G_RI","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":62.864005,"actualRep":35.057846,"actualMargin":27.806158,"actualDRShare":97.921851,"signedError":-6.806158,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.806158,"individualPollMAE":6.806158,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":27.808693,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.002535,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-6.806158,"selectedQuestionIds":["21368"],"selectedPollIds":["16471"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"744","race":"2008_Pres-G_SC","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":43.333333,"pollRep":52.333333,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":44.89656,"actualRep":53.873644,"actualMargin":-8.977084,"actualDRShare":98.770204,"signedError":-0.022916,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.022916,"individualPollMAE":1.325695,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-28"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.977084,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-2.022916,"selectedQuestionIds":["21493"],"selectedPollIds":["16596"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":0.977084,"selectedQuestionIds":["21470"],"selectedPollIds":["16573"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":0.977084,"selectedQuestionIds":["21355"],"selectedPollIds":["16458"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"745","race":"2008_Pres-G_SD","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":42.333333,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-7.666667,"actualDem":44.747431,"actualRep":53.158976,"actualMargin":-8.411545,"actualDRShare":97.906407,"signedError":0.744879,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.744879,"individualPollMAE":1.529485,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.411545,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":3.411545,"selectedQuestionIds":["149877"],"selectedPollIds":["77566"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-30","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-0.588455,"selectedQuestionIds":["21431"],"selectedPollIds":["16534"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-0.588455,"selectedQuestionIds":["21356"],"selectedPollIds":["16459"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"746","race":"2008_Pres-G_TN","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-9.0,"actualDem":41.828538,"actualRep":56.896954,"actualMargin":-15.068416,"actualDRShare":98.725492,"signedError":6.068416,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.068416,"individualPollMAE":6.068416,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.068416,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":6.068416,"selectedQuestionIds":["21375"],"selectedPollIds":["16478"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"747","race":"2008_Pres-G_TX","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":43.5,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-10.5,"actualDem":43.683121,"actualRep":55.45236,"actualMargin":-11.769239,"actualDRShare":99.135482,"signedError":1.269239,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.269239,"individualPollMAE":1.269239,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.769239,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":1.769239,"selectedQuestionIds":["21667"],"selectedPollIds":["16757"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":0.769239,"selectedQuestionIds":["21382"],"selectedPollIds":["16485"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"748","race":"2008_Pres-G_UT","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":32.666667,"pollRep":57.666667,"pollMargin":-25.0,"actualDem":34.405746,"actualRep":62.58387,"actualMargin":-28.178124,"actualDRShare":96.989615,"signedError":3.178124,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.178124,"individualPollMAE":3.178124,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2008-10-24","2008-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-28.178124,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":-25.0,"signedError":3.178124,"selectedQuestionIds":["21421"],"selectedPollIds":["16524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":5.178124,"selectedQuestionIds":["21590"],"selectedPollIds":["16680"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-27.0,"signedError":1.178124,"selectedQuestionIds":["21369"],"selectedPollIds":["16472"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"749","race":"2008_Pres-G_VA","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":50.357143,"pollRep":44.142857,"pollMargin":6.214286,"actualDem":52.62947,"actualRep":46.330501,"actualMargin":6.298969,"actualDRShare":98.959971,"signedError":-0.084683,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.084683,"individualPollMAE":2.071429,"n":14,"pollsters":14,"sourceQuestions":19,"selectedQuestions":14,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.298969,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":1.701031,"selectedQuestionIds":["21596"],"selectedPollIds":["16686"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.298969,"selectedQuestionIds":["21291"],"selectedPollIds":["16394"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":2.701031,"selectedQuestionIds":["21515"],"selectedPollIds":["16583"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"812","pollster":"FTI Consulting","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.298969,"selectedQuestionIds":["21520"],"selectedPollIds":["16614"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"115","pollster":"GfK Group","date":"2008-10-24","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":0.701031,"selectedQuestionIds":["21540"],"selectedPollIds":["16630"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.298969,"selectedQuestionIds":["21523"],"selectedPollIds":["16617"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-3.298969,"selectedQuestionIds":["21448"],"selectedPollIds":["16551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-0.298969,"selectedQuestionIds":["21319"],"selectedPollIds":["16422"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":2.701031,"selectedQuestionIds":["21577"],"selectedPollIds":["16667"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.298969,"selectedQuestionIds":["21308"],"selectedPollIds":["16411"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.298969,"selectedQuestionIds":["21342"],"selectedPollIds":["16445"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"370","pollster":"Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":4.701031,"selectedQuestionIds":["21654"],"selectedPollIds":["16744"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":0.701031,"selectedQuestionIds":["21390"],"selectedPollIds":["16493"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":0.701031,"selectedQuestionIds":["21297"],"selectedPollIds":["16400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"75","race":"2016_Sen-G_VT","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Patrick J. Leahy","republican":"Scott Milne","pollDem":75.0,"pollRep":24.0,"pollMargin":51.0,"actualDem":61.261149,"actualRep":33.025503,"actualMargin":28.235647,"actualDRShare":94.286652,"signedError":22.764353,"absoluteAverageMiss":22.764353,"individualPollMAE":22.764353,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":28.235647,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":51.0,"signedError":22.764353,"selectedQuestionIds":["76547"],"selectedPollIds":["48905"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"750","race":"2008_Pres-G_VT","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":62.0,"pollRep":32.0,"pollMargin":30.0,"actualDem":67.455683,"actualRep":30.449229,"actualMargin":37.006454,"actualDRShare":97.904912,"signedError":-7.006454,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.006454,"individualPollMAE":7.006454,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":37.006454,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":30.0,"signedError":-7.006454,"selectedQuestionIds":["21353"],"selectedPollIds":["16456"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"751","race":"2008_Pres-G_WA","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":53.5,"pollRep":41.25,"pollMargin":12.25,"actualDem":57.652892,"actualRep":40.476305,"actualMargin":17.176587,"actualDRShare":98.129197,"signedError":-4.926587,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.926587,"individualPollMAE":4.926587,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":17.176587,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-6.176587,"selectedQuestionIds":["21636"],"selectedPollIds":["16726"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-1.176587,"selectedQuestionIds":["21334"],"selectedPollIds":["16437"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"364","pollster":"University of Washington Center for Survey Research","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-5.176587,"selectedQuestionIds":["21408"],"selectedPollIds":["16511"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-7.176587,"selectedQuestionIds":["21383"],"selectedPollIds":["16486"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"752","race":"2008_Pres-G_WI","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":52.8,"pollRep":41.4,"pollMargin":11.4,"actualDem":56.217787,"actualRep":42.313662,"actualMargin":13.904124,"actualDRShare":98.531449,"signedError":-2.504124,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.504124,"individualPollMAE":3.342474,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2008-10-21","2008-10-28"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.904124,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"31","pollster":"Big Ten","date":"2008-10-21","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-1.904124,"selectedQuestionIds":["21620"],"selectedPollIds":["16710"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-6.904124,"selectedQuestionIds":["21613"],"selectedPollIds":["16703"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2008-10-28","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":2.095876,"selectedQuestionIds":["21467"],"selectedPollIds":["16570"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"365","pollster":"University of Wisconsin Survey Center","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-3.904124,"selectedQuestionIds":["21472"],"selectedPollIds":["16575"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-1.904124,"selectedQuestionIds":["21354"],"selectedPollIds":["16457"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"753","race":"2008_Pres-G_WV","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":41.75,"pollRep":52.5,"pollMargin":-10.75,"actualDem":42.58975,"actualRep":55.710343,"actualMargin":-13.120593,"actualDRShare":98.300093,"signedError":2.370593,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.370593,"individualPollMAE":2.370593,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-13.120593,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2008-11-02","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":2.120593,"selectedQuestionIds":["21289"],"selectedPollIds":["16392"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2008-10-29","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":0.120593,"selectedQuestionIds":["21424"],"selectedPollIds":["16527"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":4.120593,"selectedQuestionIds":["21357"],"selectedPollIds":["16460"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":3.120593,"selectedQuestionIds":["21569"],"selectedPollIds":["16659"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"754","race":"2008_Pres-G_WY","series":"presidential-state","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"WY","democrat":"Barack Obama","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":29.0,"pollRep":67.0,"pollMargin":-38.0,"actualDem":32.509494,"actualRep":64.713775,"actualMargin":-32.204281,"actualDRShare":97.223268,"signedError":-5.795719,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.795719,"individualPollMAE":5.795719,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2008-10-25","2008-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-32.23539,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.031109,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2008-10-25","pollMargin":-38.0,"signedError":-5.795719,"selectedQuestionIds":["21377"],"selectedPollIds":["16480"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"756","race":"2004_Pres-G_AL","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":36.844402,"actualRep":62.46069,"actualMargin":-25.616287,"actualDRShare":99.305092,"signedError":7.616287,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.616287,"individualPollMAE":7.616287,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-26","2004-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-25.616287,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":7.616287,"selectedQuestionIds":["5790"],"selectedPollIds":["4461"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"757","race":"2004_Pres-G_AR","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.975,"pollRep":50.025,"pollMargin":-4.05,"actualDem":44.54763,"actualRep":54.305959,"actualMargin":-9.758329,"actualDRShare":98.85359,"signedError":5.708329,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.708329,"individualPollMAE":5.708329,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-9.758329,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":1.758329,"selectedQuestionIds":["5733"],"selectedPollIds":["4409"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"242","pollster":"Opinion Research Associates","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":9.758329,"selectedQuestionIds":["5950"],"selectedPollIds":["4608"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":4.758329,"selectedQuestionIds":["5604"],"selectedPollIds":["25274"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-3.2,"signedError":6.558329,"selectedQuestionIds":["117538"],"selectedPollIds":["63835"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"758","race":"2004_Pres-G_AZ","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":43.666667,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-8.333333,"actualDem":44.396833,"actualRep":54.869434,"actualMargin":-10.472601,"actualDRShare":99.266267,"signedError":2.139268,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.139268,"individualPollMAE":5.157534,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-10.472601,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"15","pollster":"Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":5.472601,"selectedQuestionIds":["5924"],"selectedPollIds":["4586"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":5.472601,"selectedQuestionIds":["5745"],"selectedPollIds":["4421"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-4.527399,"selectedQuestionIds":["5672"],"selectedPollIds":["4350"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"759","race":"2004_Pres-G_CA","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":51.5,"pollRep":42.5,"pollMargin":9.0,"actualDem":54.305558,"actualRep":44.357696,"actualMargin":9.947862,"actualDRShare":98.663254,"signedError":-0.947862,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.947862,"individualPollMAE":2.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-24","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.947462,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0004,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-2.947862,"selectedQuestionIds":["5894"],"selectedPollIds":["4556"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":1.052138,"selectedQuestionIds":["5643"],"selectedPollIds":["4322"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"76","race":"2016_Sen-G_OK","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Mike Workman","republican":"James Lankford","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":61.0,"pollMargin":-24.0,"actualDem":24.578691,"actualRep":67.738962,"actualMargin":-43.16027,"actualDRShare":92.317653,"signedError":19.16027,"absoluteAverageMiss":19.16027,"individualPollMAE":19.16027,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-43.16027,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":19.16027,"selectedQuestionIds":["76541"],"selectedPollIds":["48896"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"760","race":"2004_Pres-G_CO","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.4,"pollRep":49.6,"pollMargin":-4.2,"actualDem":47.037842,"actualRep":51.711095,"actualMargin":-4.673253,"actualDRShare":98.748938,"signedError":0.473253,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.473253,"individualPollMAE":3.134651,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-4.673253,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"91","pollster":"FM3 Research","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":4.673253,"selectedQuestionIds":["5915"],"selectedPollIds":["4577"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-2.326747,"selectedQuestionIds":["5690"],"selectedPollIds":["4368"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-4.326747,"selectedQuestionIds":["5763"],"selectedPollIds":["4439"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":1.673253,"selectedQuestionIds":["5610"],"selectedPollIds":["4298"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":2.673253,"selectedQuestionIds":["5635"],"selectedPollIds":["4316"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"764","race":"2004_Pres-G_FL","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":47.142857,"pollRep":48.047619,"pollMargin":-0.904762,"actualDem":47.09111,"actualRep":52.097516,"actualMargin":-5.006406,"actualDRShare":99.188626,"signedError":4.101644,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.101644,"individualPollMAE":4.956957,"n":14,"pollsters":14,"sourceQuestions":26,"selectedQuestions":16,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.006406,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":7.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["5615"],"selectedPollIds":["4299"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"130","pollster":"EMC Research","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":3.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["5810"],"selectedPollIds":["4479"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["5657"],"selectedPollIds":["4335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":9.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["117021"],"selectedPollIds":["63580"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["5637"],"selectedPollIds":["4318"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-2.993594,"selectedQuestionIds":["5881"],"selectedPollIds":["4544"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["5734"],"selectedPollIds":["4410"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":10.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["116967"],"selectedPollIds":["25109"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-2.993594,"selectedQuestionIds":["5696"],"selectedPollIds":["4374"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"302","pollster":"SEA Polling & Strategic Design","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["5922"],"selectedPollIds":["4584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":2.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["5795"],"selectedPollIds":["4466"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":4.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["5644"],"selectedPollIds":["4323"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"99","pollster":"The Florida Poll","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.006406,"selectedQuestionIds":["5845"],"selectedPollIds":["4510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":0.333333,"signedError":5.33974,"selectedQuestionIds":["117541","144729","144742"],"selectedPollIds":["63838","75891","75903"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"765","race":"2004_Pres-G_GA","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":42.5,"pollRep":53.5,"pollMargin":-11.0,"actualDem":41.374946,"actualRep":57.974757,"actualMargin":-16.599811,"actualDRShare":99.349703,"signedError":5.599811,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.599811,"individualPollMAE":5.599811,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-16.599811,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":4.599811,"selectedQuestionIds":["5679"],"selectedPollIds":["4357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":6.599811,"selectedQuestionIds":["5693"],"selectedPollIds":["4371"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"766","race":"2004_Pres-G_HI","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":54.009552,"actualRep":45.264596,"actualMargin":8.744956,"actualDRShare":99.274148,"signedError":-9.744956,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.744956,"individualPollMAE":9.744956,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.744956,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"296","pollster":"SMS Research & Marketing Services","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-9.744956,"selectedQuestionIds":["5959"],"selectedPollIds":["4616"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"767","race":"2004_Pres-G_IA","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":47.142857,"pollMargin":-0.142857,"actualDem":49.233132,"actualRep":49.900658,"actualMargin":-0.667526,"actualDRShare":99.133789,"signedError":0.524669,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.524669,"individualPollMAE":3.190353,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":13,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2004-10-26","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.667526,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-0.332474,"selectedQuestionIds":["5780"],"selectedPollIds":["4445"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-1.332474,"selectedQuestionIds":["5707"],"selectedPollIds":["4372"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-4.332474,"selectedQuestionIds":["5735"],"selectedPollIds":["4411"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-3.332474,"selectedQuestionIds":["116968"],"selectedPollIds":["25110"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":3.667526,"selectedQuestionIds":["5766"],"selectedPollIds":["4442"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":3.667526,"selectedQuestionIds":["5645"],"selectedPollIds":["4324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":5.667526,"selectedQuestionIds":["5626"],"selectedPollIds":["4308"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"769","race":"2004_Pres-G_IL","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":53.5,"pollRep":42.5,"pollMargin":11.0,"actualDem":54.82316,"actualRep":44.478627,"actualMargin":10.344533,"actualDRShare":99.301787,"signedError":0.655467,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.655467,"individualPollMAE":1.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":10.344533,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":1.655467,"selectedQuestionIds":["5709"],"selectedPollIds":["4385"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.344533,"selectedQuestionIds":["5676"],"selectedPollIds":["4354"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"770","race":"2004_Pres-G_IN","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":57.5,"pollMargin":-19.5,"actualDem":39.262975,"actualRep":59.944765,"actualMargin":-20.68179,"actualDRShare":99.20774,"signedError":1.18179,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.18179,"individualPollMAE":1.18179,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.68179,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":0.68179,"selectedQuestionIds":["5746"],"selectedPollIds":["4422"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":1.68179,"selectedQuestionIds":["5716"],"selectedPollIds":["4392"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"771","race":"2004_Pres-G_KS","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":33.5,"pollRep":59.5,"pollMargin":-26.0,"actualDem":36.623094,"actualRep":62.003981,"actualMargin":-25.380886,"actualDRShare":98.627075,"signedError":-0.619114,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.619114,"individualPollMAE":3.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-24","2004-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-25.380886,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-29.0,"signedError":-3.619114,"selectedQuestionIds":["5854"],"selectedPollIds":["4519"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":2.380886,"selectedQuestionIds":["5799"],"selectedPollIds":["4469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"772","race":"2004_Pres-G_KY","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":38.5,"pollRep":57.5,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":39.687073,"actualRep":59.549514,"actualMargin":-19.862441,"actualDRShare":99.236587,"signedError":0.862441,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.862441,"individualPollMAE":2.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-19.862441,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"174","pollster":"Louisville Courier-Journal","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":2.862441,"selectedQuestionIds":["5944"],"selectedPollIds":["4604"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-1.137559,"selectedQuestionIds":["5673"],"selectedPollIds":["4351"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"773","race":"2004_Pres-G_LA","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"LA","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":32.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-26.0,"actualDem":42.215865,"actualRep":56.722021,"actualMargin":-14.506157,"actualDRShare":98.937886,"signedError":-11.493843,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.493843,"individualPollMAE":11.493843,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.506157,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"309","pollster":"Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":-11.493843,"selectedQuestionIds":["5958"],"selectedPollIds":["4615"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"775","race":"2004_Pres-G_MD","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":55.0,"pollRep":40.666667,"pollMargin":14.333333,"actualDem":55.971468,"actualRep":42.978218,"actualMargin":12.99325,"actualDRShare":98.949685,"signedError":1.340083,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.340083,"individualPollMAE":3.99775,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.979966,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.013284,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":8.00675,"selectedQuestionIds":["5793"],"selectedPollIds":["4455"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-1.99325,"selectedQuestionIds":["5809"],"selectedPollIds":["4478"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-1.99325,"selectedQuestionIds":["5717"],"selectedPollIds":["4393"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"776","race":"2004_Pres-G_ME","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":41.5,"pollMargin":9.5,"actualDem":53.572856,"actualRep":44.576457,"actualMargin":8.996398,"actualDRShare":98.149313,"signedError":0.503602,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.503602,"individualPollMAE":1.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":8.996398,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-0.996398,"selectedQuestionIds":["5669"],"selectedPollIds":["4347"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":2.003602,"selectedQuestionIds":["5912"],"selectedPollIds":["4574"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"777","race":"2004_Pres-G_MI","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":48.5,"pollRep":44.666667,"pollMargin":3.833333,"actualDem":51.230707,"actualRep":47.812059,"actualMargin":3.418648,"actualDRShare":99.042765,"signedError":0.414685,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.414685,"individualPollMAE":1.5,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.418648,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":2.581352,"selectedQuestionIds":["5933"],"selectedPollIds":["4595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.418648,"selectedQuestionIds":["5729"],"selectedPollIds":["4405"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.418648,"selectedQuestionIds":["5720"],"selectedPollIds":["4396"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.581352,"selectedQuestionIds":["5784"],"selectedPollIds":["4457"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.418648,"selectedQuestionIds":["5674"],"selectedPollIds":["4352"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":2.581352,"selectedQuestionIds":["5651"],"selectedPollIds":["4329"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"778","race":"2004_Pres-G_MN","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":48.285714,"pollRep":45.142857,"pollMargin":3.142857,"actualDem":51.089685,"actualRep":47.613534,"actualMargin":3.476151,"actualDRShare":98.703218,"signedError":-0.333294,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.333294,"individualPollMAE":3.503407,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2004-10-21","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.476151,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":4.523849,"selectedQuestionIds":["5671"],"selectedPollIds":["4343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-4.476151,"selectedQuestionIds":["5695"],"selectedPollIds":["4373"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"315","pollster":"Minneapolis Star Tribune","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.523849,"selectedQuestionIds":["5603"],"selectedPollIds":["4291"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-2.476151,"selectedQuestionIds":["117156"],"selectedPollIds":["63658"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"312","pollster":"St. Cloud State University","date":"2004-10-21","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":3.523849,"selectedQuestionIds":["5963"],"selectedPollIds":["4619"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"143","pollster":"University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-6.476151,"selectedQuestionIds":["117027"],"selectedPollIds":["63585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":2.523849,"selectedQuestionIds":["5636"],"selectedPollIds":["4317"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7781","race":"2020_Sen-SR_GA","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2021,"electionDate":"2021-01-05","raceKind":"SR","location":"GA","democrat":"Raphael Warnock","republican":"Kelly Loeffler","pollDem":49.088889,"pollRep":47.855556,"pollMargin":1.233333,"actualDem":51.039832,"actualRep":48.960168,"actualMargin":2.079665,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.846331,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.846331,"individualPollMAE":2.788703,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2020-12-24","2021-01-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":2.079665,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2021-01-03","pollMargin":3.9,"signedError":1.820335,"selectedQuestionIds":["138824"],"selectedPollIds":["73993"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-12-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.079665,"selectedQuestionIds":["138745"],"selectedPollIds":["73956"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2021-01-03","pollMargin":-0.5,"signedError":-2.579665,"selectedQuestionIds":["138822"],"selectedPollIds":["73992"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"156","pollster":"JMC Analytics","date":"2020-12-28","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":6.920335,"selectedQuestionIds":["138672"],"selectedPollIds":["73908"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"225","pollster":"National Research","date":"2021-01-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.079665,"selectedQuestionIds":["138820"],"selectedPollIds":["73991"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"629","pollster":"Open Model Project","date":"2020-12-24","pollMargin":-4.1,"signedError":-6.179665,"selectedQuestionIds":["138647"],"selectedPollIds":["73898"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2021-01-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.079665,"selectedQuestionIds":["138756"],"selectedPollIds":["73959"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2021-01-03","pollMargin":-1.3,"signedError":-3.379665,"selectedQuestionIds":["138846"],"selectedPollIds":["74006"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"609","pollster":"University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School","date":"2021-01-01","pollMargin":-0.9,"signedError":-2.979665,"selectedQuestionIds":["138754"],"selectedPollIds":["73958"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"779","race":"2004_Pres-G_MO","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.8,"pollRep":50.35,"pollMargin":-4.55,"actualDem":46.100447,"actualRep":53.296192,"actualMargin":-7.195745,"actualDRShare":99.396638,"signedError":2.645745,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.645745,"individualPollMAE":2.645745,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2004-10-24","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.195745,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"186","pollster":"Market Research Institute Inc.","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":3.195745,"selectedQuestionIds":["5864"],"selectedPollIds":["4529"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.195745,"selectedQuestionIds":["5730"],"selectedPollIds":["4406"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.195745,"selectedQuestionIds":["5652"],"selectedPollIds":["4330"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-4.2,"signedError":2.995745,"selectedQuestionIds":["117550"],"selectedPollIds":["63847"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"78","race":"2016_Sen-G_IN","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Evan Bayh","republican":"Todd Young","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":45.25,"pollMargin":-3.25,"actualDem":42.412717,"actualRep":52.112243,"actualMargin":-9.699526,"actualDRShare":94.52496,"signedError":6.449526,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.449526,"individualPollMAE":7.099763,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-10-29","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-9.699526,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":12.699526,"selectedQuestionIds":["75737"],"selectedPollIds":["48346"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":9.699526,"selectedQuestionIds":["74886"],"selectedPollIds":["47857"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":4.699526,"selectedQuestionIds":["75714"],"selectedPollIds":["48333"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-1.300474,"selectedQuestionIds":["76527"],"selectedPollIds":["48873"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"781","race":"2004_Pres-G_MT","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":36.0,"pollRep":57.0,"pollMargin":-21.0,"actualDem":38.565028,"actualRep":59.068143,"actualMargin":-20.503115,"actualDRShare":97.633172,"signedError":-0.496885,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.496885,"individualPollMAE":0.496885,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.502614,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.000501,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-21.0,"signedError":-0.496885,"selectedQuestionIds":["5934"],"selectedPollIds":["4596"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7819","race":"2020_Gov-G_IN","series":"governor","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Woody Myers","republican":"Eric Joseph Holcomb","pollDem":27.25,"pollRep":49.4,"pollMargin":-22.15,"actualDem":32.051975,"actualRep":56.506879,"actualMargin":-24.454904,"actualDRShare":88.558854,"signedError":2.304904,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.304904,"individualPollMAE":3.85,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-20","2020-10-22"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-24.454904,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2020-10-22","pollMargin":-18.3,"signedError":6.154904,"selectedQuestionIds":["135068"],"selectedPollIds":["72045"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"517","pollster":"Ragnar Research Partners","date":"2020-10-20","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":-1.545096,"selectedQuestionIds":["135035"],"selectedPollIds":["72031"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"782","race":"2004_Pres-G_NC","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":42.666667,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-8.333333,"actualDem":43.583146,"actualRep":56.017197,"actualMargin":-12.434051,"actualDRShare":99.600344,"signedError":4.100718,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.100718,"individualPollMAE":4.100718,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-12.434051,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":3.434051,"selectedQuestionIds":["5783"],"selectedPollIds":["4456"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":4.434051,"selectedQuestionIds":["5648"],"selectedPollIds":["4326"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"334","pollster":"The Tyson Group","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":4.434051,"selectedQuestionIds":["5928"],"selectedPollIds":["4590"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7820","race":"2020_Gov-G_MO","series":"governor","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Nicole Galloway","republican":"Mike Parson","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-6.0,"actualDem":40.692371,"actualRep":57.106179,"actualMargin":-16.413808,"actualDRShare":97.79855,"signedError":10.413808,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.413808,"individualPollMAE":10.413808,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-28","2020-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-16.413808,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":10.413808,"selectedQuestionIds":["135858"],"selectedPollIds":["72404"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7821","race":"2020_Gov-G_MT","series":"governor","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MT","democrat":"Mike Cooney","republican":"Greg Gianforte","pollDem":44.5,"pollRep":46.5,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":41.561531,"actualRep":54.432584,"actualMargin":-12.871053,"actualDRShare":95.994115,"signedError":10.871053,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.871053,"individualPollMAE":10.871053,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-12.871053,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":8.871053,"selectedQuestionIds":["136573"],"selectedPollIds":["72762"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"216","pollster":"Montana State University Billings","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":12.871053,"selectedQuestionIds":["135339"],"selectedPollIds":["72162"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7822","race":"2020_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Dan Feltes","republican":"Chris Sununu","pollDem":38.25,"pollRep":57.5,"pollMargin":-19.25,"actualDem":33.360941,"actualRep":65.124801,"actualMargin":-31.763861,"actualDRShare":98.485742,"signedError":12.513861,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.513861,"individualPollMAE":12.513861,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-31.763861,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":26.763861,"selectedQuestionIds":["135494"],"selectedPollIds":["72226"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"494","pollster":"Saint Anselm College Survey Center","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":-25.0,"signedError":6.763861,"selectedQuestionIds":["135516"],"selectedPollIds":["72233"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":8.763861,"selectedQuestionIds":["135450"],"selectedPollIds":["72208"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":7.763861,"selectedQuestionIds":["135503"],"selectedPollIds":["72230"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7824","race":"2020_Gov-G_NC","series":"governor","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Roy A. Cooper","republican":"Dan Forest","pollDem":52.753571,"pollRep":42.702143,"pollMargin":10.051429,"actualDem":51.515626,"actualRep":47.00543,"actualMargin":4.510195,"actualDRShare":98.521056,"signedError":5.541233,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.541233,"individualPollMAE":5.99269,"n":14,"pollsters":14,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":14,"dateRange":["2020-10-23","2020-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":4.510195,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"591","pollster":"Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS)","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":1.35,"signedError":-3.160195,"selectedQuestionIds":["135683"],"selectedPollIds":["72321"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"523","pollster":"East Carolina University Center for Survey Research","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":10.97,"signedError":6.459805,"selectedQuestionIds":["135710"],"selectedPollIds":["72332"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":9.9,"signedError":5.389805,"selectedQuestionIds":["136198"],"selectedPollIds":["72515"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"108","pollster":"Frederick Polls","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":2.489805,"selectedQuestionIds":["136305"],"selectedPollIds":["72635"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.489805,"selectedQuestionIds":["135303"],"selectedPollIds":["72153"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"132","pollster":"Harper Polling","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":5.489805,"selectedQuestionIds":["135438"],"selectedPollIds":["72139"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":14.489805,"selectedQuestionIds":["135704"],"selectedPollIds":["72331"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"204","pollster":"Meeting Street Insights","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.489805,"selectedQuestionIds":["135838"],"selectedPollIds":["72397"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"555","pollster":"RMG Research","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":7.489805,"selectedQuestionIds":["135116"],"selectedPollIds":["72054"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":5.489805,"selectedQuestionIds":["135891"],"selectedPollIds":["72418"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":6.489805,"selectedQuestionIds":["135517"],"selectedPollIds":["72061"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":12.5,"signedError":7.989805,"selectedQuestionIds":["136574"],"selectedPollIds":["72770"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":4.489805,"selectedQuestionIds":["135477"],"selectedPollIds":["72215"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":7.489805,"selectedQuestionIds":["135449"],"selectedPollIds":["72207"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7836","race":"2020_House-G_AK-1","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AK-1","democrat":"Alyse S. Galvin","republican":"Don Young","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-5.0,"actualDem":45.263829,"actualRep":54.401201,"actualMargin":-9.137372,"actualDRShare":99.665029,"signedError":4.137372,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.137372,"individualPollMAE":4.137372,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-27","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-9.137372,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":4.137372,"selectedQuestionIds":["135420"],"selectedPollIds":["72193"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"784","race":"2004_Pres-G_NE","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NE","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":32.0,"pollRep":61.0,"pollMargin":-29.0,"actualDem":32.682161,"actualRep":65.898641,"actualMargin":-33.21648,"actualDRShare":98.580802,"signedError":4.21648,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.21648,"individualPollMAE":4.21648,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-19"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-33.21648,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"178","pollster":"MSR Group","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-29.0,"signedError":4.21648,"selectedQuestionIds":["5940"],"selectedPollIds":["4600"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7842","race":"2020_House-G_AZ-6","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ-6","democrat":"Hiral Tipirneni","republican":"David Schweikert","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":47.827285,"actualRep":52.172715,"actualMargin":-4.34543,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":8.34543,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.34543,"individualPollMAE":8.34543,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-4.34543,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":8.34543,"selectedQuestionIds":["135159"],"selectedPollIds":["72085"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"7847","race":"2020_House-G_AR-2","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"AR-2","democrat":"Joyce Ann Elliott","republican":"French Hill","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":44.634184,"actualRep":55.365816,"actualMargin":-10.731632,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":10.731632,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.731632,"individualPollMAE":10.731632,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-31","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-10.731632,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":10.731632,"selectedQuestionIds":["136591"],"selectedPollIds":["72793"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"785","race":"2004_Pres-G_NH","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":48.84,"pollRep":46.34,"pollMargin":2.5,"actualDem":50.201611,"actualRep":48.834343,"actualMargin":1.367268,"actualDRShare":99.035954,"signedError":1.132732,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.132732,"individualPollMAE":2.373454,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2004-10-27","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":1.368375,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.001108,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-2.367268,"selectedQuestionIds":["5612"],"selectedPollIds":["4300"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"107","pollster":"Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":5.632732,"selectedQuestionIds":["5764"],"selectedPollIds":["4440"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-0.367268,"selectedQuestionIds":["5736"],"selectedPollIds":["4412"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-0.367268,"selectedQuestionIds":["5646"],"selectedPollIds":["4325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":4.5,"signedError":3.132732,"selectedQuestionIds":["117553"],"selectedPollIds":["63850"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"786","race":"2004_Pres-G_NJ","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":49.4,"pollRep":41.4,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":52.923409,"actualRep":46.238812,"actualMargin":6.684597,"actualDRShare":99.162221,"signedError":1.315403,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.315403,"individualPollMAE":3.063081,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2004-10-23","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":6.684597,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":0.315403,"selectedQuestionIds":["5889"],"selectedPollIds":["4551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-1.684597,"selectedQuestionIds":["5686"],"selectedPollIds":["4364"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-2.684597,"selectedQuestionIds":["5685"],"selectedPollIds":["4363"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":5.315403,"selectedQuestionIds":["5966"],"selectedPollIds":["4622"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":5.315403,"selectedQuestionIds":["5710"],"selectedPollIds":["4386"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"787","race":"2004_Pres-G_NM","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":49.04668,"actualRep":49.838425,"actualMargin":-0.791745,"actualDRShare":98.885104,"signedError":-1.208255,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.208255,"individualPollMAE":2.241651,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2004-10-26","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.791745,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.791745,"selectedQuestionIds":["5705"],"selectedPollIds":["4382"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-3.208255,"selectedQuestionIds":["5691"],"selectedPollIds":["4369"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-2.208255,"selectedQuestionIds":["5725"],"selectedPollIds":["4401"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-3.208255,"selectedQuestionIds":["5740"],"selectedPollIds":["4416"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":0.791745,"selectedQuestionIds":["5683"],"selectedPollIds":["4361"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"788","race":"2004_Pres-G_NV","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.4,"pollRep":49.8,"pollMargin":-4.4,"actualDem":47.878041,"actualRep":50.469692,"actualMargin":-2.591651,"actualDRShare":98.347732,"signedError":-1.808349,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.808349,"individualPollMAE":2.68167,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.591651,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"113","pollster":"Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.591651,"selectedQuestionIds":["148928"],"selectedPollIds":["77188"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-3.408349,"selectedQuestionIds":["5743"],"selectedPollIds":["4419"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.591651,"selectedQuestionIds":["5839"],"selectedPollIds":["4504"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-5.408349,"selectedQuestionIds":["5614"],"selectedPollIds":["4301"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.408349,"selectedQuestionIds":["5627"],"selectedPollIds":["4309"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"789","race":"2004_Pres-G_NY","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":55.333333,"pollRep":38.333333,"pollMargin":17.0,"actualDem":57.92328,"actualRep":39.775258,"actualMargin":18.148023,"actualDRShare":97.698538,"signedError":-1.148023,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.148023,"individualPollMAE":1.148023,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-27"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":18.444051,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.296029,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-0.148023,"selectedQuestionIds":["117036"],"selectedPollIds":["4465"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-3.148023,"selectedQuestionIds":["5755"],"selectedPollIds":["4431"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-0.148023,"selectedQuestionIds":["5749"],"selectedPollIds":["4425"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7899","race":"2020_House-G_CA-50","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-50","democrat":"Ammar Campa-Najjar","republican":"Darrell Issa","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-11.0,"actualDem":46.0468,"actualRep":53.9532,"actualMargin":-7.906399,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-3.093601,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.093601,"individualPollMAE":3.093601,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-24","2020-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-7.906399,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-3.093601,"selectedQuestionIds":["135119"],"selectedPollIds":["72072"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"79","race":"2016_Sen-G_SD","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"Jay H. Williams","republican":"John R. Thune","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":59.5,"pollMargin":-26.5,"actualDem":28.172138,"actualRep":71.827862,"actualMargin":-43.655723,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":17.155723,"absoluteAverageMiss":17.155723,"individualPollMAE":17.155723,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-43.655723,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"231","pollster":"Nielson Brothers Polling","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":24.655723,"selectedQuestionIds":["74922"],"selectedPollIds":["47873"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-34.0,"signedError":9.655723,"selectedQuestionIds":["76545"],"selectedPollIds":["48901"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"790","race":"2004_Pres-G_OH","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":48.166667,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":0.166667,"actualDem":48.706685,"actualRep":50.814024,"actualMargin":-2.107339,"actualDRShare":99.52071,"signedError":2.274006,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.274006,"individualPollMAE":3.387003,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":19,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-2.107339,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":4.107339,"selectedQuestionIds":["5838"],"selectedPollIds":["4503"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":2.107339,"selectedQuestionIds":["5917"],"selectedPollIds":["4579"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":6.107339,"selectedQuestionIds":["5666"],"selectedPollIds":["4337"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":6.107339,"selectedQuestionIds":["117022"],"selectedPollIds":["63581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":8.107339,"selectedQuestionIds":["5870"],"selectedPollIds":["4534"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.107339,"selectedQuestionIds":["5737"],"selectedPollIds":["4413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"237","pollster":"Ohio University","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":6.107339,"selectedQuestionIds":["5972"],"selectedPollIds":["4618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-0.892661,"selectedQuestionIds":["5609"],"selectedPollIds":["4297"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.892661,"selectedQuestionIds":["5785"],"selectedPollIds":["4458"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.107339,"selectedQuestionIds":["5632"],"selectedPollIds":["4313"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.107339,"selectedQuestionIds":["5719"],"selectedPollIds":["25343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-3.892661,"selectedQuestionIds":["5620"],"selectedPollIds":["4304"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"791","race":"2004_Pres-G_OK","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":31.333333,"pollRep":61.666667,"pollMargin":-30.333333,"actualDem":34.429598,"actualRep":65.570402,"actualMargin":-31.140803,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.80747,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.80747,"individualPollMAE":2.046934,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-23","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-31.140803,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"56","pollster":"Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":3.140803,"selectedQuestionIds":["5759"],"selectedPollIds":["4435"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":1.140803,"selectedQuestionIds":["5681"],"selectedPollIds":["4359"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"383","pollster":"WPA Intelligence","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-33.0,"signedError":-1.859197,"selectedQuestionIds":["5853"],"selectedPollIds":["4518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"792","race":"2004_Pres-G_OR","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":49.983333,"pollRep":44.8,"pollMargin":5.183333,"actualDem":51.348663,"actualRep":47.192917,"actualMargin":4.155746,"actualDRShare":98.54158,"signedError":1.027587,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.027587,"individualPollMAE":2.183333,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.155746,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-0.155746,"selectedQuestionIds":["5791"],"selectedPollIds":["4462"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.844254,"selectedQuestionIds":["5760"],"selectedPollIds":["4436"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.844254,"selectedQuestionIds":["5741"],"selectedPollIds":["4417"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"217","pollster":"Moore Information Group","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.155746,"selectedQuestionIds":["5808"],"selectedPollIds":["4477"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.155746,"selectedQuestionIds":["5800"],"selectedPollIds":["4470"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":10.1,"signedError":5.944254,"selectedQuestionIds":["117563"],"selectedPollIds":["63859"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7928","race":"2020_House-G_FL-13","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-13","democrat":"Charlie Crist","republican":"Anna Paulina Luna","pollDem":54.8,"pollRep":38.6,"pollMargin":16.2,"actualDem":53.039089,"actualRep":46.959187,"actualMargin":6.079902,"actualDRShare":99.998276,"signedError":10.120098,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.120098,"individualPollMAE":10.120098,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-28","2020-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":6.079902,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"314","pollster":"St. Pete Polls","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":16.2,"signedError":10.120098,"selectedQuestionIds":["135434"],"selectedPollIds":["72203"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"793","race":"2004_Pres-G_PA","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":48.769231,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":1.769231,"actualDem":50.923809,"actualRep":48.423666,"actualMargin":2.500143,"actualDRShare":99.347475,"signedError":-0.730912,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.730912,"individualPollMAE":1.807747,"n":13,"pollsters":13,"sourceQuestions":21,"selectedQuestions":13,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.500143,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.499857,"selectedQuestionIds":["5844"],"selectedPollIds":["4509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2004-10-21","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.499857,"selectedQuestionIds":["5925"],"selectedPollIds":["4587"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-6.500143,"selectedQuestionIds":["5667"],"selectedPollIds":["4345"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.500143,"selectedQuestionIds":["117023"],"selectedPollIds":["63582"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.500143,"selectedQuestionIds":["5882"],"selectedPollIds":["4528"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.500143,"selectedQuestionIds":["5738"],"selectedPollIds":["4414"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.500143,"selectedQuestionIds":["5965"],"selectedPollIds":["4621"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.500143,"selectedQuestionIds":["5692"],"selectedPollIds":["4370"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.500143,"selectedQuestionIds":["5786"],"selectedPollIds":["4459"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.500143,"selectedQuestionIds":["5605"],"selectedPollIds":["4293"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"336","pollster":"Temple University Institute for Survey Research","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.500143,"selectedQuestionIds":["5873"],"selectedPollIds":["4536"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"377","pollster":"West Chester University","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.499857,"selectedQuestionIds":["5816"],"selectedPollIds":["4484"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.499857,"selectedQuestionIds":["5633"],"selectedPollIds":["4314"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7930","race":"2020_House-G_FL-15","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-15","democrat":"Alan M. Cohn","republican":"Scott Franklin","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":44.614778,"actualRep":55.385222,"actualMargin":-10.770444,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":8.770444,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.770444,"individualPollMAE":8.770444,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-23","2020-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-10.770444,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":8.770444,"selectedQuestionIds":["134882"],"selectedPollIds":["71956"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"7931","race":"2020_House-G_FL-16","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-16","democrat":"Margaret Good","republican":"Vern Buchanan","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":44.499715,"actualRep":55.500285,"actualMargin":-11.000569,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-3.999431,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.999431,"individualPollMAE":3.999431,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-20","2020-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-11.000569,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"406","pollster":"Data Targeting","date":"2020-10-20","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-3.999431,"selectedQuestionIds":["134275"],"selectedPollIds":["71674"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"794","race":"2004_Pres-G_RI","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":41.0,"pollMargin":13.0,"actualDem":59.423426,"actualRep":38.671437,"actualMargin":20.751989,"actualDRShare":98.094863,"signedError":-7.751989,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.751989,"individualPollMAE":7.751989,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-26","2004-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":20.751989,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-7.751989,"selectedQuestionIds":["5775"],"selectedPollIds":["4450"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"795","race":"2004_Pres-G_SC","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":39.5,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-15.5,"actualDem":40.901836,"actualRep":57.98195,"actualMargin":-17.080114,"actualDRShare":98.883786,"signedError":1.580114,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.580114,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-17.077943,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.002171,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":4.080114,"selectedQuestionIds":["5921"],"selectedPollIds":["4583"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-0.919886,"selectedQuestionIds":["5880"],"selectedPollIds":["4543"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"796","race":"2004_Pres-G_SD","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"SD","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":34.5,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-20.5,"actualDem":38.443646,"actualRep":59.911132,"actualMargin":-21.467486,"actualDRShare":98.354778,"signedError":0.967486,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.967486,"individualPollMAE":1.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-21.467486,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":2.467486,"selectedQuestionIds":["5919"],"selectedPollIds":["4581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"203","pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-0.532514,"selectedQuestionIds":["5892"],"selectedPollIds":["4554"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"7963","race":"2020_House-G_IL-3","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-3","democrat":"Marie Newman","republican":"Mike Fricilone","pollDem":55.5,"pollRep":32.2,"pollMargin":23.3,"actualDem":56.378728,"actualRep":43.621272,"actualMargin":12.757456,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":10.542544,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.542544,"individualPollMAE":10.542544,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-31","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":12.757456,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":23.3,"signedError":10.542544,"selectedQuestionIds":["138675"],"selectedPollIds":["72716"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7966","race":"2020_House-G_IL-6","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-6","democrat":"Sean Casten","republican":"Jeanne M. Ives","pollDem":54.7,"pollRep":40.5,"pollMargin":14.2,"actualDem":52.817439,"actualRep":45.433567,"actualMargin":7.383872,"actualDRShare":98.251006,"signedError":6.816128,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.816128,"individualPollMAE":6.816128,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-31","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":7.383872,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":14.2,"signedError":6.816128,"selectedQuestionIds":["138676"],"selectedPollIds":["72716"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"797","race":"2004_Pres-G_TN","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":42.7,"pollRep":53.8,"pollMargin":-11.1,"actualDem":42.525291,"actualRep":56.799089,"actualMargin":-14.273798,"actualDRShare":99.324381,"signedError":3.173798,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.173798,"individualPollMAE":5.657933,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-20","2004-10-29"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-14.273798,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-20","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":2.273798,"selectedQuestionIds":["5923"],"selectedPollIds":["4585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-3.726202,"selectedQuestionIds":["5682"],"selectedPollIds":["4360"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-3.3,"signedError":10.973798,"selectedQuestionIds":["117571"],"selectedPollIds":["63863"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7977","race":"2020_House-G_IL-17","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IL-17","democrat":"Cheri Bustos","republican":"Esther Joy King","pollDem":54.3,"pollRep":43.7,"pollMargin":10.6,"actualDem":52.021874,"actualRep":47.971123,"actualMargin":4.050751,"actualDRShare":99.992998,"signedError":6.549249,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.549249,"individualPollMAE":6.549249,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-31","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":4.050751,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":10.6,"signedError":6.549249,"selectedQuestionIds":["138677"],"selectedPollIds":["72716"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"798","race":"2004_Pres-G_TX","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":59.0,"pollMargin":-22.0,"actualDem":38.22426,"actualRep":61.085823,"actualMargin":-22.861562,"actualDRShare":99.310083,"signedError":0.861562,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.861562,"individualPollMAE":0.861562,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2004-10-27","2004-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-22.861513,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-4.9e-05,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-27","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":0.861562,"selectedQuestionIds":["5750"],"selectedPollIds":["4426"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"7983","race":"2020_House-G_IN-5","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"IN-5","democrat":"Christina Hale","republican":"Victoria Spartz","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":45.942829,"actualRep":50.023785,"actualMargin":-4.080956,"actualDRShare":95.966614,"signedError":4.080956,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.080956,"individualPollMAE":4.080956,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-31","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-4.080956,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":4.080956,"selectedQuestionIds":["136590"],"selectedPollIds":["72792"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"799","race":"2004_Pres-G_UT","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":23.5,"pollRep":68.5,"pollMargin":-45.0,"actualDem":25.995642,"actualRep":71.535948,"actualMargin":-45.540306,"actualDRShare":97.531589,"signedError":0.540306,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.540306,"individualPollMAE":0.540306,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-23","2004-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-45.540306,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"70","pollster":"Dan Jones & Associates","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-45.0,"signedError":0.540306,"selectedQuestionIds":["5902"],"selectedPollIds":["55068"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"368","pollster":"Valley Research","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-45.0,"signedError":0.540306,"selectedQuestionIds":["5899"],"selectedPollIds":["25357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8","race":"2014_Sen-G_NH","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Jeanne Shaheen","republican":"Scott Brown","pollDem":48.533333,"pollRep":47.45,"pollMargin":1.083333,"actualDem":51.455366,"actualRep":48.211136,"actualMargin":3.24423,"actualDRShare":99.666502,"signedError":-2.160897,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.160897,"individualPollMAE":3.41282,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2014-10-27","2014-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":3.24423,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2014-10-28","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.24423,"selectedQuestionIds":["42189"],"selectedPollIds":["34333"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"228","pollster":"New England College Polling Center","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":-0.5,"signedError":-3.74423,"selectedQuestionIds":["42112"],"selectedPollIds":["34377"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2014-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.24423,"selectedQuestionIds":["42194"],"selectedPollIds":["34345"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":3.75577,"selectedQuestionIds":["42167"],"selectedPollIds":["34393"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.24423,"selectedQuestionIds":["42140"],"selectedPollIds":["34423"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2014-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-7.24423,"selectedQuestionIds":["42132"],"selectedPollIds":["34417"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"80","race":"2016_Sen-G_ID","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Jerry Sturgill","republican":"Mike Crapo","pollDem":39.0,"pollRep":58.0,"pollMargin":-19.0,"actualDem":27.726775,"actualRep":66.134712,"actualMargin":-38.407937,"actualDRShare":93.861488,"signedError":19.407937,"absoluteAverageMiss":19.407937,"individualPollMAE":19.407937,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-38.407937,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":19.407937,"selectedQuestionIds":["76526"],"selectedPollIds":["48872"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"800","race":"2004_Pres-G_VA","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":43.666667,"pollRep":50.0,"pollMargin":-6.333333,"actualDem":45.525918,"actualRep":53.731957,"actualMargin":-8.206039,"actualDRShare":99.257874,"signedError":1.872706,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.872706,"individualPollMAE":2.402013,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-23","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.198465,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.007574,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-24","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":2.206039,"selectedQuestionIds":["5865"],"selectedPollIds":["4530"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"288","pollster":"Richmond Times-Dispatch","date":"2004-10-23","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-0.793961,"selectedQuestionIds":["5910"],"selectedPollIds":["4572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":4.206039,"selectedQuestionIds":["5718"],"selectedPollIds":["4394"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8014","race":"2020_House-G_ME-1","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-1","democrat":"Chellie M. Pingree","republican":"Jay T. Allen","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":27.0,"actualDem":62.153032,"actualRep":37.843528,"actualMargin":24.309504,"actualDRShare":99.99656,"signedError":2.690496,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.690496,"individualPollMAE":2.690496,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-23","2020-10-23"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":24.309504,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"593","pollster":"Colby College","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":27.0,"signedError":2.690496,"selectedQuestionIds":["135132"],"selectedPollIds":["72076"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8015","race":"2020_House-G_ME-2","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-2","democrat":"Jared Forrest Golden","republican":"Dale John Crafts","pollDem":54.5,"pollRep":37.5,"pollMargin":17.0,"actualDem":53.042721,"actualRep":46.948437,"actualMargin":6.094284,"actualDRShare":99.991158,"signedError":10.905716,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.905716,"individualPollMAE":10.905716,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-23","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":6.094284,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":2.905716,"selectedQuestionIds":["136604"],"selectedPollIds":["72801"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"593","pollster":"Colby College","date":"2020-10-23","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":18.905716,"selectedQuestionIds":["135133"],"selectedPollIds":["72076"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"802","race":"2004_Pres-G_WA","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":51.866667,"pollRep":45.133333,"pollMargin":6.733333,"actualDem":52.821148,"actualRep":45.640282,"actualMargin":7.180866,"actualDRShare":98.46143,"signedError":-0.447533,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.447533,"individualPollMAE":3.126955,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-30"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":7.180866,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-2.180866,"selectedQuestionIds":["5771"],"selectedPollIds":["4447"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-3.180866,"selectedQuestionIds":["5650"],"selectedPollIds":["4328"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":11.2,"signedError":4.019134,"selectedQuestionIds":["117583"],"selectedPollIds":["63866"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"803","race":"2004_Pres-G_WI","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":46.833333,"pollRep":47.666667,"pollMargin":-0.833333,"actualDem":49.699717,"actualRep":49.319871,"actualMargin":0.379846,"actualDRShare":99.019589,"signedError":-1.213179,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.213179,"individualPollMAE":3.833333,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2004-10-25","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.379846,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2004-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.620154,"selectedQuestionIds":["5781"],"selectedPollIds":["4446"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2004-10-29","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-8.379846,"selectedQuestionIds":["5715"],"selectedPollIds":["4384"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.620154,"selectedQuestionIds":["5744"],"selectedPollIds":["4420"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.379846,"selectedQuestionIds":["116969"],"selectedPollIds":["25114"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"365","pollster":"University of Wisconsin Survey Center","date":"2004-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.379846,"selectedQuestionIds":["5842"],"selectedPollIds":["4507"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.620154,"selectedQuestionIds":["5634"],"selectedPollIds":["4315"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"804","race":"2004_Pres-G_WV","series":"presidential-state","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"John Kerry","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":44.3,"pollRep":50.55,"pollMargin":-6.25,"actualDem":43.205141,"actualRep":56.070718,"actualMargin":-12.865577,"actualDRShare":99.275859,"signedError":6.615577,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.615577,"individualPollMAE":6.615577,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2004-10-28","2004-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-12.86396,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.001617,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":4.865577,"selectedQuestionIds":["5739"],"selectedPollIds":["4415"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-4.5,"signedError":8.365577,"selectedQuestionIds":["117597"],"selectedPollIds":["63869"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"806","race":"2000_Pres-G_AK","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AK","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":31.0,"pollRep":54.0,"pollMargin":-23.0,"actualDem":27.66634,"actualRep":58.620955,"actualMargin":-30.954615,"actualDRShare":86.287295,"signedError":7.954615,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.954615,"individualPollMAE":7.954615,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-11-03","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-30.954615,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":7.954615,"selectedQuestionIds":["116984"],"selectedPollIds":["63545"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8060","race":"2020_House-G_MO-2","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MO-2","democrat":"Jill Schupp","republican":"Ann Wagner","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":45.519286,"actualRep":51.887846,"actualMargin":-6.368561,"actualDRShare":97.407132,"signedError":6.368561,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.368561,"individualPollMAE":6.368561,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-11-01","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-6.368561,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":6.368561,"selectedQuestionIds":["136589"],"selectedPollIds":["72791"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8067","race":"2020_House-G_MT-1","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"MT-1","democrat":"Kathleen Williams","republican":"Matt Rosendale","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-1.0,"actualDem":43.613645,"actualRep":56.386355,"actualMargin":-12.77271,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":11.77271,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.77271,"individualPollMAE":11.77271,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-12.77271,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"216","pollster":"Montana State University Billings","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":11.77271,"selectedQuestionIds":["135341"],"selectedPollIds":["72162"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8069","race":"2020_House-G_NE-2","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NE-2","democrat":"Kara Eastman","republican":"Don Bacon","pollDem":47.066667,"pollRep":48.1,"pollMargin":-1.033333,"actualDem":46.208771,"actualRep":50.768633,"actualMargin":-4.559861,"actualDRShare":96.977404,"signedError":3.526528,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.526528,"individualPollMAE":3.526528,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2020-10-29","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-4.559861,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":5.559861,"selectedQuestionIds":["136540"],"selectedPollIds":["72759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2020-10-29","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":1.559861,"selectedQuestionIds":["135872"],"selectedPollIds":["72413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"609","pollster":"University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":-1.1,"signedError":3.459861,"selectedQuestionIds":["136534"],"selectedPollIds":["72755"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"807","race":"2000_Pres-G_AL","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":33.0,"pollRep":51.5,"pollMargin":-18.5,"actualDem":41.566503,"actualRep":56.483755,"actualMargin":-14.917252,"actualDRShare":98.050258,"signedError":-3.582748,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.582748,"individualPollMAE":3.582748,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-11-01","2000-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-7.458626,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-7.458626,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-2.082748,"selectedQuestionIds":["7603"],"selectedPollIds":["6150"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"361","pollster":"University of South Alabama Polling Group","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":-5.082748,"selectedQuestionIds":["7691"],"selectedPollIds":["6236"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8075","race":"2020_House-G_NH-1","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-1","democrat":"Chris Pappas","republican":"Matt Mowers","pollDem":48.5,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":1.5,"actualDem":51.316699,"actualRep":46.213382,"actualMargin":5.103317,"actualDRShare":97.530082,"signedError":-3.603317,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.603317,"individualPollMAE":3.603317,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-25","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.103317,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"494","pollster":"Saint Anselm College Survey Center","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.103317,"selectedQuestionIds":["135519"],"selectedPollIds":["72233"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-7.103317,"selectedQuestionIds":["135505"],"selectedPollIds":["72230"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8076","race":"2020_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Ann McLane Kuster","republican":"Steven Negron","pollDem":52.5,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":12.5,"actualDem":53.899302,"actualRep":43.70292,"actualMargin":10.196382,"actualDRShare":97.602221,"signedError":2.303618,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.303618,"individualPollMAE":2.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-25","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":10.196382,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"494","pollster":"Saint Anselm College Survey Center","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":4.803618,"selectedQuestionIds":["135520"],"selectedPollIds":["72233"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.196382,"selectedQuestionIds":["135506"],"selectedPollIds":["72230"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8078","race":"2020_House-G_NJ-2","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ-2","democrat":"Amy Kennedy","republican":"Jeff Van Drew","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":46.16927,"actualRep":51.926054,"actualMargin":-5.756785,"actualDRShare":98.095324,"signedError":6.756785,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.756785,"individualPollMAE":6.756785,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-24","2020-10-24"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-5.756785,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"317","pollster":"Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.756785,"selectedQuestionIds":["135690"],"selectedPollIds":["72325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"808","race":"2000_Pres-G_AR","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":44.75,"pollRep":46.25,"pollMargin":-1.5,"actualDem":45.864256,"actualRep":51.307198,"actualMargin":-5.442941,"actualDRShare":97.171454,"signedError":3.942941,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.942941,"individualPollMAE":3.942941,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-28","2000-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-5.442941,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"89","pollster":"Ethridge & Associates LLC","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":2.442941,"selectedQuestionIds":["7709"],"selectedPollIds":["6253"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":4.442941,"selectedQuestionIds":["7760"],"selectedPollIds":["6302"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"242","pollster":"Opinion Research Associates","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.442941,"selectedQuestionIds":["7774"],"selectedPollIds":["6316"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":3.442941,"selectedQuestionIds":["117126"],"selectedPollIds":["63642"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8089","race":"2020_House-G_NM-1","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-1","democrat":"Debra A. Haaland","republican":"Michelle Garcia Holmes","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":21.0,"actualDem":58.188241,"actualRep":41.811759,"actualMargin":16.376482,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":4.623518,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.623518,"individualPollMAE":4.623518,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":16.376482,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":4.623518,"selectedQuestionIds":["135847"],"selectedPollIds":["72400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"809","race":"2000_Pres-G_AZ","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":40.333333,"pollRep":51.0,"pollMargin":-10.666667,"actualDem":44.734585,"actualRep":51.021138,"actualMargin":-6.286553,"actualDRShare":95.755723,"signedError":-4.380114,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.380114,"individualPollMAE":4.380114,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-6.286553,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-5.713447,"selectedQuestionIds":["116985"],"selectedPollIds":["63546"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"188","pollster":"Market Solutions Group","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-3.713447,"selectedQuestionIds":["7732"],"selectedPollIds":["6275"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-3.713447,"selectedQuestionIds":["117337"],"selectedPollIds":["63734"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8090","race":"2020_House-G_NM-2","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-2","democrat":"Xochitl Torres Small","republican":"Yvette Herrell","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":46.253199,"actualRep":53.702641,"actualMargin":-7.449443,"actualDRShare":99.95584,"signedError":5.449443,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.449443,"individualPollMAE":5.449443,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-7.449443,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":5.449443,"selectedQuestionIds":["135848"],"selectedPollIds":["72400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8091","race":"2020_House-G_NM-3","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-3","democrat":"Teresa Leger Fernandez","republican":"Alexis Martinez Johnson","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":35.0,"pollMargin":23.0,"actualDem":58.681107,"actualRep":41.318893,"actualMargin":17.362214,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":5.637786,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.637786,"individualPollMAE":5.637786,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-26","2020-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":17.362214,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":5.637786,"selectedQuestionIds":["135849"],"selectedPollIds":["72400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"81","race":"2016_Sen-G_KY","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Jim Gray","republican":"Rand Paul","pollDem":42.266667,"pollRep":52.166667,"pollMargin":-9.9,"actualDem":42.724505,"actualRep":57.273288,"actualMargin":-14.548783,"actualDRShare":99.997793,"signedError":4.648783,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.648783,"individualPollMAE":5.616261,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-14.548783,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-9.7,"signedError":4.848783,"selectedQuestionIds":["74813"],"selectedPollIds":["47792"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":10.548783,"selectedQuestionIds":["76531"],"selectedPollIds":["48877"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"379","pollster":"Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-1.451217,"selectedQuestionIds":["74996"],"selectedPollIds":["47938"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"810","race":"2000_Pres-G_CA","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":46.6,"pollRep":42.6,"pollMargin":4.0,"actualDem":53.449737,"actualRep":41.651497,"actualMargin":11.79824,"actualDRShare":95.101234,"signedError":-7.79824,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.79824,"individualPollMAE":7.79824,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":11.79824,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"94","pollster":"Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-6.79824,"selectedQuestionIds":["7626"],"selectedPollIds":["6173"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-5.79824,"selectedQuestionIds":["116986"],"selectedPollIds":["63547"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-8.79824,"selectedQuestionIds":["117098"],"selectedPollIds":["63628"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-5.79824,"selectedQuestionIds":["117361"],"selectedPollIds":["63744"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-11.79824,"selectedQuestionIds":["120622"],"selectedPollIds":["65022"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8102","race":"2020_House-G_NY-11","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-11","democrat":"Max N. Rose","republican":"Nicole Malliotakis","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":46.775128,"actualRep":53.051678,"actualMargin":-6.27655,"actualDRShare":99.826807,"signedError":4.27655,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.27655,"individualPollMAE":4.27655,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-20","2020-10-20"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-2.998493,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-3.278057,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2020-10-20","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":4.27655,"selectedQuestionIds":["134920"],"selectedPollIds":["71974"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"811","race":"2000_Pres-G_CO","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":40.5,"pollRep":47.5,"pollMargin":-7.0,"actualDem":42.393509,"actualRep":50.750215,"actualMargin":-8.356706,"actualDRShare":93.143724,"signedError":1.356706,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.356706,"individualPollMAE":2.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-11-02","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.356706,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"51","pollster":"Ciruli Associates","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-0.643294,"selectedQuestionIds":["7655"],"selectedPollIds":["6201"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":3.356706,"selectedQuestionIds":["116987"],"selectedPollIds":["63548"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8115","race":"2020_House-G_NY-24","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-24","democrat":"Dana Balter","republican":"John Katko","pollDem":45.5,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":42.971635,"actualRep":53.122539,"actualMargin":-10.150904,"actualDRShare":96.094175,"signedError":11.150904,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.150904,"individualPollMAE":11.150904,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-2.440749,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-7.710154,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":12.150904,"selectedQuestionIds":["136542"],"selectedPollIds":["72761"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":10.150904,"selectedQuestionIds":["134736"],"selectedPollIds":["71883"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"812","race":"2000_Pres-G_CT","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":11.0,"actualDem":55.909628,"actualRep":38.443603,"actualMargin":17.466025,"actualDRShare":94.353231,"signedError":-6.466025,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.466025,"individualPollMAE":6.466025,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-11-03","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":17.466025,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":-6.466025,"selectedQuestionIds":["116988"],"selectedPollIds":["63549"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8127","race":"2020_House-G_NC-9","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"NC-9","democrat":"Cynthia Lee Wallace","republican":"Dan Bishop","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":44.407905,"actualRep":55.592095,"actualMargin":-11.184191,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":9.184191,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.184191,"individualPollMAE":9.184191,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-28","2020-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-11.184191,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":9.184191,"selectedQuestionIds":["135492"],"selectedPollIds":["72225"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"8133","race":"2020_House-G_OH-1","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-1","democrat":"Kate Schroder","republican":"Steve Chabot","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":44.647988,"actualRep":51.795424,"actualMargin":-7.147436,"actualDRShare":96.443412,"signedError":5.147436,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.147436,"individualPollMAE":5.147436,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-31","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-7.147436,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":5.147436,"selectedQuestionIds":["136541"],"selectedPollIds":["72760"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"814","race":"2000_Pres-G_DE","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"DE","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":43.0,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":-1.5,"actualDem":54.977727,"actualRep":41.916288,"actualMargin":13.061439,"actualDRShare":96.894015,"signedError":-14.561439,"absoluteAverageMiss":14.561439,"individualPollMAE":14.561439,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-30","2000-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":13.061439,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-17.061439,"selectedQuestionIds":["7650"],"selectedPollIds":["6196"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-12.061439,"selectedQuestionIds":["117109"],"selectedPollIds":["63637"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"815","race":"2000_Pres-G_FL","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":46.0,"pollMargin":1.0,"actualDem":48.837821,"actualRep":48.846827,"actualMargin":-0.009005,"actualDRShare":97.684648,"signedError":1.009005,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.009005,"individualPollMAE":3.287001,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2000-10-28","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-0.009005,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":5.009005,"selectedQuestionIds":["7682"],"selectedPollIds":["6227"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":3.009005,"selectedQuestionIds":["116989"],"selectedPollIds":["63550"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2000-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-3.990995,"selectedQuestionIds":["7771"],"selectedPollIds":["6313"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-1.990995,"selectedQuestionIds":["7675"],"selectedPollIds":["6220"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-1.990995,"selectedQuestionIds":["117117"],"selectedPollIds":["63640"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":5.009005,"selectedQuestionIds":["117367"],"selectedPollIds":["63750"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.009005,"selectedQuestionIds":["120623"],"selectedPollIds":["65023"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8153","race":"2020_House-G_OK-5","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"OK-5","democrat":"Kendra Horn","republican":"Stephanie Bice","pollDem":45.5,"pollRep":47.75,"pollMargin":-2.25,"actualDem":47.937627,"actualRep":52.062373,"actualMargin":-4.124746,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.874746,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.874746,"individualPollMAE":2.25,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2020-10-24","2020-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-4.124746,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"556","pollster":"Amber Integrated","date":"2020-10-24","pollMargin":-4.5,"signedError":-0.375254,"selectedQuestionIds":["134916"],"selectedPollIds":["71971"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2020-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":4.124746,"selectedQuestionIds":["136539"],"selectedPollIds":["72758"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"816","race":"2000_Pres-G_GA","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":40.0,"pollRep":52.0,"pollMargin":-12.0,"actualDem":43.211,"actualRep":54.95957,"actualMargin":-11.74857,"actualDRShare":98.170569,"signedError":-0.25143,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.25143,"individualPollMAE":4.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-11.687058,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.061512,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":3.74857,"selectedQuestionIds":["116990"],"selectedPollIds":["63551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"194","pollster":"Marketing Workshop","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-4.25143,"selectedQuestionIds":["7759"],"selectedPollIds":["6301"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"817","race":"2000_Pres-G_HI","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"HI","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":38.0,"pollMargin":15.0,"actualDem":55.791668,"actualRep":37.462869,"actualMargin":18.328799,"actualDRShare":93.254537,"signedError":-3.328799,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.328799,"individualPollMAE":3.328799,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-11-03","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":18.328799,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-3.328799,"selectedQuestionIds":["116991"],"selectedPollIds":["63552"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"818","race":"2000_Pres-G_IA","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":44.6,"pollRep":44.4,"pollMargin":0.2,"actualDem":47.191916,"actualRep":46.885638,"actualMargin":0.306277,"actualDRShare":94.077554,"signedError":-0.106277,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.106277,"individualPollMAE":3.061255,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.314998,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.008721,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.693723,"selectedQuestionIds":["116992"],"selectedPollIds":["63553"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"248","pollster":"PSI","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.306277,"selectedQuestionIds":["117049"],"selectedPollIds":["63597"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.306277,"selectedQuestionIds":["117129"],"selectedPollIds":["63643"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.693723,"selectedQuestionIds":["7690"],"selectedPollIds":["6235"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.306277,"selectedQuestionIds":["117343"],"selectedPollIds":["63739"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"819","race":"2000_Pres-G_ID","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"ID","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":28.5,"pollRep":60.5,"pollMargin":-32.0,"actualDem":27.638129,"actualRep":67.170439,"actualMargin":-39.532311,"actualDRShare":94.808568,"signedError":7.532311,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.532311,"individualPollMAE":7.532311,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-25","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-39.531838,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.000473,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-38.0,"signedError":1.532311,"selectedQuestionIds":["116993"],"selectedPollIds":["63554"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":-26.0,"signedError":13.532311,"selectedQuestionIds":["7810"],"selectedPollIds":["6351"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8198","race":"2020_House-G_TX-3","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"TX-3","democrat":"Helane Seikaly","republican":"Van Taylor","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":42.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":42.87192,"actualRep":55.068551,"actualMargin":-12.196631,"actualDRShare":97.940472,"signedError":14.196631,"absoluteAverageMiss":14.196631,"individualPollMAE":14.196631,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-12.196631,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"68","pollster":"DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":14.196631,"selectedQuestionIds":["134887"],"selectedPollIds":["71958"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"82","race":"2016_Sen-G_MD","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Chris Van Hollen","republican":"Kathy Szeliga","pollDem":64.0,"pollRep":33.0,"pollMargin":31.0,"actualDem":60.887876,"actualRep":35.674848,"actualMargin":25.213028,"actualDRShare":96.562724,"signedError":5.786972,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.786972,"individualPollMAE":5.786972,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":25.213028,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":31.0,"signedError":5.786972,"selectedQuestionIds":["76533"],"selectedPollIds":["48880"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"820","race":"2000_Pres-G_IL","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":47.25,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":3.25,"actualDem":54.596521,"actualRep":42.58488,"actualMargin":12.011641,"actualDRShare":97.181401,"signedError":-8.761641,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.761641,"individualPollMAE":8.761641,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-25","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":12.011641,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-6.011641,"selectedQuestionIds":["116994"],"selectedPollIds":["63555"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-9.011641,"selectedQuestionIds":["7737"],"selectedPollIds":["6280"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-15.011641,"selectedQuestionIds":["7803"],"selectedPollIds":["6344"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-5.011641,"selectedQuestionIds":["120624"],"selectedPollIds":["65024"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"821","race":"2000_Pres-G_IN","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":33.5,"pollRep":55.25,"pollMargin":-21.75,"actualDem":41.012103,"actualRep":56.646882,"actualMargin":-15.634779,"actualDRShare":97.658985,"signedError":-6.115221,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.115221,"individualPollMAE":6.115221,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-27","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.634779,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-1.365221,"selectedQuestionIds":["116975"],"selectedPollIds":["54454"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":-7.365221,"selectedQuestionIds":["7776"],"selectedPollIds":["54450"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-3.365221,"selectedQuestionIds":["117053"],"selectedPollIds":["54452"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":-12.365221,"selectedQuestionIds":["117309"],"selectedPollIds":["54453"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"822","race":"2000_Pres-G_KS","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":55.0,"pollMargin":-17.0,"actualDem":37.238392,"actualRep":58.041663,"actualMargin":-20.803271,"actualDRShare":95.280056,"signedError":3.803271,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.803271,"individualPollMAE":3.803271,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-11-03","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-20.803271,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":3.803271,"selectedQuestionIds":["116995"],"selectedPollIds":["63556"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"823","race":"2000_Pres-G_KY","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"KY","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":40.75,"pollRep":54.5,"pollMargin":-13.75,"actualDem":41.378183,"actualRep":56.506483,"actualMargin":-15.128301,"actualDRShare":97.884666,"signedError":1.378301,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.378301,"individualPollMAE":2.81415,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-28","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.128301,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":3.128301,"selectedQuestionIds":["116996"],"selectedPollIds":["63557"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"179","pollster":"Magellan Strategies","date":"2000-10-28","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":0.128301,"selectedQuestionIds":["7781"],"selectedPollIds":["6323"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":5.128301,"selectedQuestionIds":["7604"],"selectedPollIds":["6151"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-2.871699,"selectedQuestionIds":["117364"],"selectedPollIds":["63747"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8241","race":"2020_House-G_VA-5","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-5","democrat":"Bryant Cameron Webb","republican":"Robert G. \"Bob\" Good","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":3.0,"actualDem":47.304737,"actualRep":52.443223,"actualMargin":-5.138485,"actualDRShare":99.74796,"signedError":8.138485,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.138485,"individualPollMAE":8.138485,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-21","2020-10-21"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-5.138485,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2020-10-21","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":8.138485,"selectedQuestionIds":["134441"],"selectedPollIds":["71751"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"8243","race":"2020_House-G_VA-7","series":"house-district","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-7","democrat":"Abigail A. Spanberger","republican":"Nicholas J. Freitas","pollDem":51.6,"pollRep":41.4,"pollMargin":10.2,"actualDem":50.819542,"actualRep":48.999315,"actualMargin":1.820227,"actualDRShare":99.818858,"signedError":8.379773,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.379773,"individualPollMAE":8.379773,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-11-01","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":1.820227,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"245","pollster":"Øptimus Analytics","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":10.2,"signedError":8.379773,"selectedQuestionIds":["138678"],"selectedPollIds":["73911"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"825","race":"2000_Pres-G_MA","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MA","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":29.5,"pollMargin":24.5,"actualDem":59.126126,"actualRep":32.132903,"actualMargin":26.993223,"actualDRShare":91.259029,"signedError":-2.493223,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.493223,"individualPollMAE":2.493223,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":26.992808,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.000415,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":-0.993223,"selectedQuestionIds":["116997"],"selectedPollIds":["63558"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"160","pollster":"KRC Research","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":-0.993223,"selectedQuestionIds":["7828"],"selectedPollIds":["6367"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":-2.993223,"selectedQuestionIds":["7827"],"selectedPollIds":["6366"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"354","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":-4.993223,"selectedQuestionIds":["7800"],"selectedPollIds":["6341"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"826","race":"2000_Pres-G_MD","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MD","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":50.75,"pollRep":39.25,"pollMargin":11.5,"actualDem":56.488308,"actualRep":40.184781,"actualMargin":16.303528,"actualDRShare":96.673089,"signedError":-4.803528,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.803528,"individualPollMAE":5.151764,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-25","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":16.303528,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"121","pollster":"Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-2.303528,"selectedQuestionIds":["7832"],"selectedPollIds":["6371"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":0.696472,"selectedQuestionIds":["116998"],"selectedPollIds":["63559"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-8.303528,"selectedQuestionIds":["7822"],"selectedPollIds":["6363"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-9.303528,"selectedQuestionIds":["117092"],"selectedPollIds":["63624"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"827","race":"2000_Pres-G_ME","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":44.666667,"pollRep":41.666667,"pollMargin":3.0,"actualDem":49.086016,"actualRep":43.971851,"actualMargin":5.114165,"actualDRShare":93.057867,"signedError":-2.114165,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.114165,"individualPollMAE":4.038055,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.114165,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":2.885835,"selectedQuestionIds":["116999"],"selectedPollIds":["63560"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"184","pollster":"Market Decisions Research","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.114165,"selectedQuestionIds":["7865"],"selectedPollIds":["6400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-5.114165,"selectedQuestionIds":["7731"],"selectedPollIds":["6274"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8270","race":"2012_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":2012,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2012,"electionDate":"2012-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":45.9,"pollRep":45.8,"pollMargin":0.1,"actualDem":48.656267,"actualRep":47.638485,"actualMargin":1.017781,"actualDRShare":96.294752,"signedError":-0.917781,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.917781,"individualPollMAE":1.310669,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2012-10-24","2012-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL regular House general counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":1.090135,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.072354,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-2.017781,"selectedQuestionIds":["117574"],"selectedPollIds":["30732"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":0.982219,"selectedQuestionIds":["117591"],"selectedPollIds":["30467"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.017781,"selectedQuestionIds":["117342"],"selectedPollIds":["30796"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2012-11-02","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":0.982219,"selectedQuestionIds":["117569"],"selectedPollIds":["30676"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2012-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.017781,"selectedQuestionIds":["36935"],"selectedPollIds":["30675"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"233","pollster":"North Star Opinion Research","date":"2012-10-24","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.017781,"selectedQuestionIds":["36523"],"selectedPollIds":["30434"],"partisanFlags":["REP,DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2012-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-4.017781,"selectedQuestionIds":["117568"],"selectedPollIds":["30497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2012-11-03","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-0.017781,"selectedQuestionIds":["37101"],"selectedPollIds":["30760"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2012-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.017781,"selectedQuestionIds":["37109"],"selectedPollIds":["30767"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2012-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.017781,"selectedQuestionIds":["117598"],"selectedPollIds":["42239"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8271","race":"2014_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":44.333333,"pollRep":46.222222,"pollMargin":-1.888889,"actualDem":45.096738,"actualRep":51.048163,"actualMargin":-5.951425,"actualDRShare":96.1449,"signedError":4.062536,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.062536,"individualPollMAE":4.528569,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2014-10-23","2014-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL regular House general counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":-5.623994,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.32743,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-0.048575,"selectedQuestionIds":["49045"],"selectedPollIds":["34918"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.951425,"selectedQuestionIds":["49088"],"selectedPollIds":["36137"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.951425,"selectedQuestionIds":["49092"],"selectedPollIds":["36141"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"810","pollster":"CBS News","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-2.048575,"selectedQuestionIds":["49044"],"selectedPollIds":["36100"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2014-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":5.951425,"selectedQuestionIds":["49287"],"selectedPollIds":["36139"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2014-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.951425,"selectedQuestionIds":["49087"],"selectedPollIds":["36136"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2014-10-30","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":2.951425,"selectedQuestionIds":["49286"],"selectedPollIds":["36301"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"385","pollster":"The Winston Group","date":"2014-10-23","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":6.951425,"selectedQuestionIds":["124324"],"selectedPollIds":["66666"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2014-10-29","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":1.951425,"selectedQuestionIds":["49089"],"selectedPollIds":["36138"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8272","race":"2016_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":45.75,"pollRep":43.8,"pollMargin":1.95,"actualDem":47.892627,"actualRep":49.25248,"actualMargin":-1.359852,"actualDRShare":97.145107,"signedError":3.309852,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.309852,"individualPollMAE":3.685911,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2016-10-29","2016-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC general-election House candidate counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":-1.033177,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.326675,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.359852,"selectedQuestionIds":["76167"],"selectedPollIds":["48619"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.359852,"selectedQuestionIds":["75992"],"selectedPollIds":["48180"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.359852,"selectedQuestionIds":["75988"],"selectedPollIds":["48480"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":9.1,"signedError":10.459852,"selectedQuestionIds":["78196"],"selectedPollIds":["49775"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.359852,"selectedQuestionIds":["75880"],"selectedPollIds":["48362"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.359852,"selectedQuestionIds":["74806"],"selectedPollIds":["47786"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-1.6,"signedError":-0.240148,"selectedQuestionIds":["76030"],"selectedPollIds":["48509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.640148,"selectedQuestionIds":["76037"],"selectedPollIds":["48513"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":6.359852,"selectedQuestionIds":["76461"],"selectedPollIds":["48515"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.359852,"selectedQuestionIds":["76351"],"selectedPollIds":["48687"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8273","race":"2018_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":50.341667,"pollRep":42.858333,"pollMargin":7.483333,"actualDem":53.321513,"actualRep":44.785271,"actualMargin":8.536242,"actualDRShare":98.106785,"signedError":-1.052909,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.052909,"individualPollMAE":3.272707,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":23,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2018-10-24","2018-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC general-election House candidate counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":8.510563,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.025679,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-0.536242,"selectedQuestionIds":["91388"],"selectedPollIds":["56729"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2018-11-05","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":1.463758,"selectedQuestionIds":["91661"],"selectedPollIds":["56846"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-1.536242,"selectedQuestionIds":["91403"],"selectedPollIds":["56734"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":4.8,"signedError":-3.736242,"selectedQuestionIds":["91633"],"selectedPollIds":["56836"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"175","pollster":"Lucid","date":"2018-10-24","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-2.536242,"selectedQuestionIds":["91282"],"selectedPollIds":["56675"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":0.463758,"selectedQuestionIds":["91208"],"selectedPollIds":["56637"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2018-11-03","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-5.536242,"selectedQuestionIds":["91662"],"selectedPollIds":["56844"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2018-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-9.536242,"selectedQuestionIds":["91484"],"selectedPollIds":["56776"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":4.463758,"selectedQuestionIds":["91466"],"selectedPollIds":["56767"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"144","pollster":"TIPP Insights","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":0.463758,"selectedQuestionIds":["91427"],"selectedPollIds":["56747"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"343","pollster":"University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":6.463758,"selectedQuestionIds":["91467"],"selectedPollIds":["56768"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2018-11-05","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-2.536242,"selectedQuestionIds":["91663"],"selectedPollIds":["56842"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8274","race":"2020_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":49.759,"pollRep":42.619,"pollMargin":7.14,"actualDem":50.919631,"actualRep":47.565126,"actualMargin":3.354505,"actualDRShare":98.484757,"signedError":3.785495,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.785495,"individualPollMAE":3.996396,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":19,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2020-10-25","2020-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC general-election House candidate counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":2.964575,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.389929,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":1.645495,"selectedQuestionIds":["137479"],"selectedPollIds":["73340"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":1.645495,"selectedQuestionIds":["136033"],"selectedPollIds":["72486"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"583","pollster":"John Zogby Strategies","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":2.3,"signedError":-1.054505,"selectedQuestionIds":["136356"],"selectedPollIds":["72648"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2020-10-30","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":3.645495,"selectedQuestionIds":["136242"],"selectedPollIds":["72598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"559","pollster":"Opinium","date":"2020-10-28","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":4.645495,"selectedQuestionIds":["135672"],"selectedPollIds":["72314"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":8.645495,"selectedQuestionIds":["135330"],"selectedPollIds":["72160"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":10.1,"signedError":6.745495,"selectedQuestionIds":["135379"],"selectedPollIds":["72176"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"385","pollster":"The Winston Group","date":"2020-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.645495,"selectedQuestionIds":["135468"],"selectedPollIds":["72213"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"343","pollster":"University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research","date":"2020-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":4.645495,"selectedQuestionIds":["136615"],"selectedPollIds":["72808"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2020-11-01","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":6.645495,"selectedQuestionIds":["136473"],"selectedPollIds":["72714"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"828","race":"2000_Pres-G_MI","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.727273,"pollRep":43.909091,"pollMargin":1.818182,"actualDem":51.279799,"actualRep":46.146215,"actualMargin":5.133584,"actualDRShare":97.426014,"signedError":-3.315402,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.315402,"individualPollMAE":3.472932,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":18,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.133584,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.133584,"selectedQuestionIds":["7683"],"selectedPollIds":["6228"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.133584,"selectedQuestionIds":["7625"],"selectedPollIds":["6172"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.133584,"selectedQuestionIds":["117000"],"selectedPollIds":["63561"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-4.133584,"selectedQuestionIds":["7866"],"selectedPollIds":["6401"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2000-10-28","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-1.133584,"selectedQuestionIds":["7772"],"selectedPollIds":["6314"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"193","pollster":"Marketing Resource Group (MRG)","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-11.133584,"selectedQuestionIds":["7829"],"selectedPollIds":["6368"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-0.133584,"selectedQuestionIds":["7705"],"selectedPollIds":["6249"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-2.133584,"selectedQuestionIds":["7820"],"selectedPollIds":["6361"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-6.133584,"selectedQuestionIds":["117139"],"selectedPollIds":["63645"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-7.133584,"selectedQuestionIds":["117372"],"selectedPollIds":["63751"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.866416,"selectedQuestionIds":["120548"],"selectedPollIds":["25916"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"829","race":"2000_Pres-G_MN","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.666667,"pollRep":40.333333,"pollMargin":5.333333,"actualDem":47.905572,"actualRep":45.502351,"actualMargin":2.403221,"actualDRShare":93.407923,"signedError":2.930112,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.930112,"individualPollMAE":2.930112,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-10-26","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":2.403221,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.596779,"selectedQuestionIds":["117001"],"selectedPollIds":["63562"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.596779,"selectedQuestionIds":["7782"],"selectedPollIds":["6324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"315","pollster":"Minneapolis Star Tribune","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":7.596779,"selectedQuestionIds":["7668"],"selectedPollIds":["6213"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"83","race":"2016_Sen-G_AR","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AR","democrat":"Conner W. Eldridge","republican":"John Boozman","pollDem":41.0,"pollRep":56.0,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":36.17102,"actualRep":59.771634,"actualMargin":-23.600615,"actualDRShare":95.942654,"signedError":8.600615,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.600615,"individualPollMAE":8.600615,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-23.600615,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":8.600615,"selectedQuestionIds":["76519"],"selectedPollIds":["48863"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"830","race":"2000_Pres-G_MO","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.25,"pollRep":47.25,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":47.084273,"actualRep":50.422816,"actualMargin":-3.338543,"actualDRShare":97.507089,"signedError":1.338543,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.338543,"individualPollMAE":2.169271,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.338543,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":4.338543,"selectedQuestionIds":["7614"],"selectedPollIds":["6161"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.338543,"selectedQuestionIds":["116976"],"selectedPollIds":["54469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-1.661457,"selectedQuestionIds":["117102"],"selectedPollIds":["63631"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.338543,"selectedQuestionIds":["120625"],"selectedPollIds":["65025"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"831","race":"2000_Pres-G_MS","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"MS","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":37.0,"pollRep":53.5,"pollMargin":-16.5,"actualDem":40.6981,"actualRep":57.619515,"actualMargin":-16.921415,"actualDRShare":98.317615,"signedError":0.421415,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.421415,"individualPollMAE":5.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-10-31","2000-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-16.921415,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"89","pollster":"Ethridge & Associates LLC","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-5.078585,"selectedQuestionIds":["7710"],"selectedPollIds":["6254"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":5.921415,"selectedQuestionIds":["7605"],"selectedPollIds":["6152"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"833","race":"2000_Pres-G_NC","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":41.5,"pollRep":51.25,"pollMargin":-9.75,"actualDem":43.145671,"actualRep":55.957756,"actualMargin":-12.812085,"actualDRShare":99.103427,"signedError":3.062085,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.062085,"individualPollMAE":5.156043,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-12.812085,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":7.812085,"selectedQuestionIds":["116977"],"selectedPollIds":["54486"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":5.812085,"selectedQuestionIds":["7752"],"selectedPollIds":["6294"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":2.812085,"selectedQuestionIds":["117055"],"selectedPollIds":["54485"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":-4.187915,"selectedQuestionIds":["117316"],"selectedPollIds":["54487"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"836","race":"2000_Pres-G_NH","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":-2.0,"actualDem":46.803179,"actualRep":48.07031,"actualMargin":-1.267131,"actualDRShare":94.873489,"signedError":-0.732869,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.732869,"individualPollMAE":4.653426,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-1.267131,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-8.732869,"selectedQuestionIds":["7615"],"selectedPollIds":["6162"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"107","pollster":"Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.267131,"selectedQuestionIds":["7869"],"selectedPollIds":["6404"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.267131,"selectedQuestionIds":["116978"],"selectedPollIds":["54504"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.267131,"selectedQuestionIds":["7704"],"selectedPollIds":["6248"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-4.732869,"selectedQuestionIds":["7617"],"selectedPollIds":["6164"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"837","race":"2000_Pres-G_NJ","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":48.666667,"pollRep":39.166667,"pollMargin":9.5,"actualDem":56.125609,"actualRep":40.291244,"actualMargin":15.834365,"actualDRShare":96.416853,"signedError":-6.334365,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.334365,"individualPollMAE":6.334365,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":15.834365,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"760","pollster":"Gannett New Jersey","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-2.834365,"selectedQuestionIds":["7616"],"selectedPollIds":["6163"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-1.834365,"selectedQuestionIds":["117003"],"selectedPollIds":["63564"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-7.834365,"selectedQuestionIds":["7628"],"selectedPollIds":["6175"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-3.834365,"selectedQuestionIds":["7845"],"selectedPollIds":["6383"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-9.834365,"selectedQuestionIds":["117149"],"selectedPollIds":["63653"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-11.834365,"selectedQuestionIds":["117334"],"selectedPollIds":["63733"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"838","race":"2000_Pres-G_NM","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":44.333333,"pollMargin":0.666667,"actualDem":47.908554,"actualRep":47.847412,"actualMargin":0.061142,"actualDRShare":95.755966,"signedError":0.605525,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.605525,"individualPollMAE":2.687047,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-11-01","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.061142,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":4.938858,"selectedQuestionIds":["117004"],"selectedPollIds":["63565"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.061142,"selectedQuestionIds":["7624"],"selectedPollIds":["6171"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"280","pollster":"Research & Polling Inc.","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.061142,"selectedQuestionIds":["7687"],"selectedPollIds":["6232"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"839","race":"2000_Pres-G_NV","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":44.0,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-4.0,"actualDem":45.941263,"actualRep":49.485089,"actualMargin":-3.543826,"actualDRShare":95.426352,"signedError":-0.456174,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.456174,"individualPollMAE":0.818725,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-10-27","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.54648,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.002654,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.543826,"selectedQuestionIds":["117005"],"selectedPollIds":["63566"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-0.456174,"selectedQuestionIds":["7783"],"selectedPollIds":["6325"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-1.456174,"selectedQuestionIds":["117362"],"selectedPollIds":["63745"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"84","race":"2016_Sen-G_IL","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Tammy Duckworth","republican":"Mark Kirk","pollDem":50.566667,"pollRep":36.4,"pollMargin":14.166667,"actualDem":54.861743,"actualRep":39.780418,"actualMargin":15.081326,"actualDRShare":94.642161,"signedError":-0.914659,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.914659,"individualPollMAE":3.806225,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2016-10-26","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":15.081326,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":17.5,"signedError":2.418674,"selectedQuestionIds":["74933"],"selectedPollIds":["47878"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-7.081326,"selectedQuestionIds":["75068"],"selectedPollIds":["48000"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":1.918674,"selectedQuestionIds":["76528"],"selectedPollIds":["48874"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"840","race":"2000_Pres-G_NY","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":53.666667,"pollRep":36.0,"pollMargin":17.666667,"actualDem":59.016812,"actualRep":34.530169,"actualMargin":24.486643,"actualDRShare":93.546981,"signedError":-6.819976,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.819976,"individualPollMAE":6.819976,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":16,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2000-10-27","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":24.189454,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.297189,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"32","pollster":"Blum & Weprin Associates","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-4.486643,"selectedQuestionIds":["7644"],"selectedPollIds":["6190"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-4.486643,"selectedQuestionIds":["7802"],"selectedPollIds":["6343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-9.486643,"selectedQuestionIds":["117006"],"selectedPollIds":["63567"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":-6.486643,"selectedQuestionIds":["7595"],"selectedPollIds":["6142"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-11.486643,"selectedQuestionIds":["7738"],"selectedPollIds":["6281"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":-3.486643,"selectedQuestionIds":["7618"],"selectedPollIds":["6165"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-10.486643,"selectedQuestionIds":["117148"],"selectedPollIds":["63652"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-5.486643,"selectedQuestionIds":["117363"],"selectedPollIds":["63746"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-5.486643,"selectedQuestionIds":["120626"],"selectedPollIds":["65026"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"841","race":"2000_Pres-G_OH","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":43.166667,"pollRep":49.666667,"pollMargin":-6.5,"actualDem":46.440428,"actualRep":49.986474,"actualMargin":-3.546046,"actualDRShare":96.426902,"signedError":-2.953954,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.953954,"individualPollMAE":3.317985,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2000-10-31","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.546046,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"57","pollster":"Columbus Dispatch","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-6.453954,"selectedQuestionIds":["7757"],"selectedPollIds":["6299"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.546046,"selectedQuestionIds":["117007"],"selectedPollIds":["63568"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-2.453954,"selectedQuestionIds":["7620"],"selectedPollIds":["6167"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-3.453954,"selectedQuestionIds":["117365"],"selectedPollIds":["63748"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"346","pollster":"University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-6.453954,"selectedQuestionIds":["7629"],"selectedPollIds":["25896"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.546046,"selectedQuestionIds":["120627"],"selectedPollIds":["65027"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"842","race":"2000_Pres-G_OK","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":56.5,"pollMargin":-18.5,"actualDem":38.426905,"actualRep":60.307852,"actualMargin":-21.880948,"actualDRShare":98.734757,"signedError":3.380948,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.380948,"individualPollMAE":3.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2000-11-02","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-21.880948,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":-0.119052,"selectedQuestionIds":["117008"],"selectedPollIds":["63569"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":6.880948,"selectedQuestionIds":["7606"],"selectedPollIds":["6153"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"843","race":"2000_Pres-G_OR","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.333333,"pollRep":45.333333,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":46.95994,"actualRep":46.518922,"actualMargin":0.441018,"actualDRShare":93.478862,"signedError":-0.441018,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.441018,"individualPollMAE":5.186327,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-10-27","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.441018,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"76","pollster":"DHM Research","date":"2000-10-27","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.558982,"selectedQuestionIds":["7835"],"selectedPollIds":["6374"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":6.558982,"selectedQuestionIds":["117009"],"selectedPollIds":["63570"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-8.441018,"selectedQuestionIds":["117349"],"selectedPollIds":["63741"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"844","race":"2000_Pres-G_PA","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":46.182727,"pollRep":43.727273,"pollMargin":2.455455,"actualDem":50.608171,"actualRep":46.438133,"actualMargin":4.170038,"actualDRShare":97.046304,"signedError":-1.714584,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.714584,"individualPollMAE":3.045465,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":17,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":4.170038,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.829962,"selectedQuestionIds":["7684"],"selectedPollIds":["6229"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"77","pollster":"Decision Forecasting","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-0.170038,"selectedQuestionIds":["7648"],"selectedPollIds":["6194"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.829962,"selectedQuestionIds":["117010"],"selectedPollIds":["63571"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.829962,"selectedQuestionIds":["7871"],"selectedPollIds":["6406"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"172","pollster":"Los Angeles Times","date":"2000-10-28","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-6.170038,"selectedQuestionIds":["7773"],"selectedPollIds":["6315"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.170038,"selectedQuestionIds":["7627"],"selectedPollIds":["6174"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"210","pollster":"Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs","date":"2000-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-5.170038,"selectedQuestionIds":["7784"],"selectedPollIds":["6326"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.170038,"selectedQuestionIds":["7801"],"selectedPollIds":["6342"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-8.170038,"selectedQuestionIds":["117152"],"selectedPollIds":["63654"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":0.01,"signedError":-4.160038,"selectedQuestionIds":["117366"],"selectedPollIds":["63749"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":3.829962,"selectedQuestionIds":["7588"],"selectedPollIds":["6135"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"845","race":"2000_Pres-G_RI","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"RI","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":57.0,"pollRep":31.0,"pollMargin":26.0,"actualDem":60.9877,"actualRep":31.911799,"actualMargin":29.075901,"actualDRShare":92.899499,"signedError":-3.075901,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.075901,"individualPollMAE":3.075901,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":29.075901,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":26.0,"signedError":-3.075901,"selectedQuestionIds":["117352"],"selectedPollIds":["63742"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"846","race":"2000_Pres-G_SC","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"SC","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-15.0,"actualDem":40.901523,"actualRep":56.860385,"actualMargin":-15.958861,"actualDRShare":97.761908,"signedError":0.958861,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.958861,"individualPollMAE":0.958861,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-29","2000-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-15.958861,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":0.958861,"selectedQuestionIds":["7761"],"selectedPollIds":["6303"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"848","race":"2000_Pres-G_TN","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"TN","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.571429,"pollRep":46.857143,"pollMargin":-1.285714,"actualDem":47.284895,"actualRep":51.149153,"actualMargin":-3.864258,"actualDRShare":98.434048,"signedError":2.578544,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.578544,"individualPollMAE":3.513254,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2000-10-28","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-3.864258,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":9.864258,"selectedQuestionIds":["7685"],"selectedPollIds":["6230"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"89","pollster":"Ethridge & Associates LLC","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":0.864258,"selectedQuestionIds":["7711"],"selectedPollIds":["6255"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":1.864258,"selectedQuestionIds":["117011"],"selectedPollIds":["63572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-0.135742,"selectedQuestionIds":["7607"],"selectedPollIds":["6154"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"220","pollster":"Multi-Quest International","date":"2000-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":5.864258,"selectedQuestionIds":["7729"],"selectedPollIds":["6272"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":2.864258,"selectedQuestionIds":["117095"],"selectedPollIds":["63626"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-3.135742,"selectedQuestionIds":["120628"],"selectedPollIds":["65028"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"849","race":"2000_Pres-G_TX","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":32.0,"pollRep":59.333333,"pollMargin":-27.333333,"actualDem":37.981958,"actualRep":59.298599,"actualMargin":-21.316641,"actualDRShare":97.280558,"signedError":-6.016692,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.016692,"individualPollMAE":8.227786,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-11-02","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-21.316641,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":3.316641,"selectedQuestionIds":["117012"],"selectedPollIds":["63573"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-34.0,"signedError":-12.683359,"selectedQuestionIds":["7608"],"selectedPollIds":["6155"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"303","pollster":"Scripps Howard","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":-8.683359,"selectedQuestionIds":["117276"],"selectedPollIds":["63716"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"85","race":"2016_Sen-G_NH","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Maggie Hassan","republican":"Kelly Ayotte","pollDem":46.745455,"pollRep":46.209091,"pollMargin":0.536364,"actualDem":47.981303,"actualRep":47.84371,"actualMargin":0.137592,"actualDRShare":95.825013,"signedError":0.398771,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.398771,"individualPollMAE":4.021599,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":16,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":0.137592,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"9","pollster":"American Research Group","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.137592,"selectedQuestionIds":["75461"],"selectedPollIds":["48187"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-3.2,"signedError":-3.337592,"selectedQuestionIds":["76051"],"selectedPollIds":["48519"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.137592,"selectedQuestionIds":["75725"],"selectedPollIds":["48338"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"198","pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-6.137592,"selectedQuestionIds":["75397"],"selectedPollIds":["48128"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"257","pollster":"Praecones Analytica","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-2.1,"signedError":-2.237592,"selectedQuestionIds":["74816"],"selectedPollIds":["47793"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.862408,"selectedQuestionIds":["75706"],"selectedPollIds":["48327"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":7.862408,"selectedQuestionIds":["76250"],"selectedPollIds":["48678"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-2.8,"signedError":-2.937592,"selectedQuestionIds":["75476"],"selectedPollIds":["48194"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":8.862408,"selectedQuestionIds":["76536"],"selectedPollIds":["48889"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.862408,"selectedQuestionIds":["75592"],"selectedPollIds":["48263"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.862408,"selectedQuestionIds":["76024"],"selectedPollIds":["48497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"850","race":"2000_Pres-G_UT","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"UT","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":24.333333,"pollRep":62.333333,"pollMargin":-38.0,"actualDem":26.344722,"actualRep":66.830143,"actualMargin":-40.485421,"actualDRShare":93.174865,"signedError":2.485421,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.485421,"individualPollMAE":2.485421,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-40.485421,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-40.0,"signedError":0.485421,"selectedQuestionIds":["116979"],"selectedPollIds":["54510"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":-38.0,"signedError":2.485421,"selectedQuestionIds":["117059"],"selectedPollIds":["54509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"368","pollster":"Valley Research","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-36.0,"signedError":4.485421,"selectedQuestionIds":["7643"],"selectedPollIds":["6189"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"851","race":"2000_Pres-G_VA","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":42.166667,"pollRep":49.666667,"pollMargin":-7.5,"actualDem":44.435611,"actualRep":52.473729,"actualMargin":-8.038119,"actualDRShare":96.90934,"signedError":0.538119,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.538119,"individualPollMAE":2.179373,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-8.038119,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":4.038119,"selectedQuestionIds":["7878"],"selectedPollIds":["25901"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":2.038119,"selectedQuestionIds":["117013"],"selectedPollIds":["63574"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"197","pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":0.038119,"selectedQuestionIds":["7686"],"selectedPollIds":["6231"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"288","pollster":"Richmond Times-Dispatch","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":2.038119,"selectedQuestionIds":["7762"],"selectedPollIds":["6304"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-1.961881,"selectedQuestionIds":["117112"],"selectedPollIds":["63639"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-2.961881,"selectedQuestionIds":["117374"],"selectedPollIds":["63752"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"852","race":"2000_Pres-G_VT","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"VT","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":6.0,"actualDem":50.634709,"actualRep":40.697161,"actualMargin":9.937548,"actualDRShare":91.33187,"signedError":-3.937548,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.937548,"individualPollMAE":3.937548,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2000-10-26","2000-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":9.937548,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-10-26","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-3.937548,"selectedQuestionIds":["117060"],"selectedPollIds":["54518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"853","race":"2000_Pres-G_WA","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":46.25,"pollRep":44.5,"pollMargin":1.75,"actualDem":50.158215,"actualRep":44.578648,"actualMargin":5.579567,"actualDRShare":94.736863,"signedError":-3.829567,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.829567,"individualPollMAE":4.539784,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2000-10-31","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":5.579567,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-6.579567,"selectedQuestionIds":["116980"],"selectedPollIds":["54525"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-6.579567,"selectedQuestionIds":["117154"],"selectedPollIds":["63656"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2000-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.579567,"selectedQuestionIds":["117321"],"selectedPollIds":["54524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":1.420433,"selectedQuestionIds":["120629"],"selectedPollIds":["65029"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"854","race":"2000_Pres-G_WI","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":43.6,"pollRep":45.2,"pollMargin":-1.6,"actualDem":47.83282,"actualRep":47.613164,"actualMargin":0.219656,"actualDRShare":95.445983,"signedError":-1.819656,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.819656,"individualPollMAE":2.131794,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":0.219656,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.219656,"selectedQuestionIds":["117014"],"selectedPollIds":["63575"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.780344,"selectedQuestionIds":["7872"],"selectedPollIds":["6407"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"187","pollster":"Market Shares Corp.","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.219656,"selectedQuestionIds":["7580"],"selectedPollIds":["6127"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.219656,"selectedQuestionIds":["117155"],"selectedPollIds":["63657"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.219656,"selectedQuestionIds":["120630"],"selectedPollIds":["65030"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"855","race":"2000_Pres-G_WV","series":"presidential-state","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"WV","democrat":"Al Gore","republican":"George W. Bush","pollDem":42.333333,"pollRep":45.333333,"pollMargin":-3.0,"actualDem":45.592664,"actualRep":51.91522,"actualMargin":-6.322556,"actualDRShare":97.507884,"signedError":3.322556,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.322556,"individualPollMAE":3.322556,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2000-10-25","2000-11-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2016-president.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL presidential constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-6.322556,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":2.322556,"selectedQuestionIds":["116981"],"selectedPollIds":["54531"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-02","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":3.322556,"selectedQuestionIds":["117062"],"selectedPollIds":["54530"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"378","pollster":"West Virginia Research Center","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":4.322556,"selectedQuestionIds":["7852"],"selectedPollIds":["6390"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"86","race":"2016_Sen-G_PA","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Kathleen Alana McGinty","republican":"Patrick J. Toomey","pollDem":46.142857,"pollRep":43.571429,"pollMargin":2.571429,"actualDem":47.289045,"actualRep":48.719925,"actualMargin":-1.43088,"actualDRShare":96.00897,"signedError":4.002308,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.002308,"individualPollMAE":4.369325,"n":14,"pollsters":14,"sourceQuestions":19,"selectedQuestions":14,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-1.432453,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.001573,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":6.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["75253"],"selectedPollIds":["48090"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"52","pollster":"Clarity Campaign Labs","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["76172"],"selectedPollIds":["48620"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["74629"],"selectedPollIds":["47654"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"106","pollster":"Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research","date":"2016-10-28","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":13.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["74929"],"selectedPollIds":["47876"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["75830"],"selectedPollIds":["48364"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"132","pollster":"Harper Polling","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["75733"],"selectedPollIds":["48343"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["75256"],"selectedPollIds":["48092"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["75954"],"selectedPollIds":["48469"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["75708"],"selectedPollIds":["48329"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["75467"],"selectedPollIds":["48101"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-2.56912,"selectedQuestionIds":["76253"],"selectedPollIds":["48681"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":5.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["76543"],"selectedPollIds":["48898"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":7.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["75229"],"selectedPollIds":["48086"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.43088,"selectedQuestionIds":["76255"],"selectedPollIds":["48683"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8652","race":"2000_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":2000,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2000,"electionDate":"2000-11-07","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":44.783333,"pollRep":41.825,"pollMargin":2.958333,"actualDem":47.117179,"actualRep":47.555184,"actualMargin":-0.438005,"actualDRShare":94.672362,"signedError":3.396339,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.396339,"individualPollMAE":4.167003,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":22,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2000-10-24","2000-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL regular House general counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":-0.342729,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.095276,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"810","pollster":"CBS News","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":3.438005,"selectedQuestionIds":["33341"],"selectedPollIds":["42760"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2000-11-03","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.438005,"selectedQuestionIds":["33345"],"selectedPollIds":["6188"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2000-10-30","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":5.438005,"selectedQuestionIds":["33350"],"selectedPollIds":["6246"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.438005,"selectedQuestionIds":["33339"],"selectedPollIds":["6125"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.438005,"selectedQuestionIds":["33338"],"selectedPollIds":["6126"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":3.438005,"selectedQuestionIds":["33346"],"selectedPollIds":["28068"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"253","pollster":"Pew Research Center","date":"2000-11-04","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":6.438005,"selectedQuestionIds":["33342"],"selectedPollIds":["28064"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"255","pollster":"Polling Company/Global Strategy Group","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-2.561995,"selectedQuestionIds":["117351"],"selectedPollIds":["28069"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2000-11-01","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":9.438005,"selectedQuestionIds":["122071"],"selectedPollIds":["63596"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2000-11-05","pollMargin":-2.5,"signedError":-2.061995,"selectedQuestionIds":["117322"],"selectedPollIds":["63655"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"390","pollster":"Yankelovich Partners Inc.","date":"2000-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":1.438005,"selectedQuestionIds":["33358"],"selectedPollIds":["28080"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2000-10-24","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":7.438005,"selectedQuestionIds":["120594"],"selectedPollIds":["6381"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8654","race":"2004_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":2004,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2004,"electionDate":"2004-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":46.177778,"pollRep":45.022222,"pollMargin":1.155556,"actualDem":46.796769,"actualRep":49.444098,"actualMargin":-2.647329,"actualDRShare":96.240867,"signedError":3.802885,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.802885,"individualPollMAE":4.404072,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":22,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2004-10-19","2004-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL regular House general counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":-2.571514,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.075815,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":4.647329,"selectedQuestionIds":["33176"],"selectedPollIds":["15014"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.647329,"selectedQuestionIds":["117333"],"selectedPollIds":["14993"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2004-10-30","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.647329,"selectedQuestionIds":["123571"],"selectedPollIds":["15294"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.647329,"selectedQuestionIds":["33189"],"selectedPollIds":["14906"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-0.352671,"selectedQuestionIds":["33175"],"selectedPollIds":["14920"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2004-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.352671,"selectedQuestionIds":["33180"],"selectedPollIds":["15320"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2004-10-31","pollMargin":2.4,"signedError":5.047329,"selectedQuestionIds":["149216"],"selectedPollIds":["27901"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"385","pollster":"The Winston Group","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":5.647329,"selectedQuestionIds":["122984"],"selectedPollIds":["38559"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2004-10-19","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":10.647329,"selectedQuestionIds":["149453"],"selectedPollIds":["63810"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8656","race":"2008_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":2008,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2008,"electionDate":"2008-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":48.666667,"pollRep":38.666667,"pollMargin":10.0,"actualDem":53.22553,"actualRep":42.571698,"actualMargin":10.653833,"actualDRShare":95.797228,"signedError":-0.653833,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.653833,"individualPollMAE":3.405981,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2008-10-22","2008-11-01"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL regular House general counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":10.549599,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.104234,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":-1.653833,"selectedQuestionIds":["123686"],"selectedPollIds":["14962"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"810","pollster":"CBS News","date":"2008-10-31","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":7.346167,"selectedQuestionIds":["122953"],"selectedPollIds":["43068"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2008-10-27","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":1.346167,"selectedQuestionIds":["32923"],"selectedPollIds":["18176"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"812","pollster":"FTI Consulting","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":-5.653833,"selectedQuestionIds":["32921"],"selectedPollIds":["15186"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":2.346167,"selectedQuestionIds":["123689"],"selectedPollIds":["15145"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2008-11-01","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":1.346167,"selectedQuestionIds":["32920"],"selectedPollIds":["15318"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2008-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-6.653833,"selectedQuestionIds":["120431","32924"],"selectedPollIds":["27646","64960"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2008-10-23","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-3.653833,"selectedQuestionIds":["32925"],"selectedPollIds":["27647"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"385","pollster":"The Winston Group","date":"2008-10-22","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-0.653833,"selectedQuestionIds":["122994"],"selectedPollIds":["43062"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8657","race":"2010_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":2010,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2010,"electionDate":"2010-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":43.277778,"pollRep":49.138889,"pollMargin":-5.861111,"actualDem":44.910404,"actualRep":51.670844,"actualMargin":-6.76044,"actualDRShare":96.581249,"signedError":0.899329,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.899329,"individualPollMAE":3.474542,"n":18,"pollsters":18,"sourceQuestions":23,"selectedQuestions":18,"dateRange":["2010-10-19","2010-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL regular House general counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":-6.513926,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.246514,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":2.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["32659"],"selectedPollIds":["27381"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-3.23956,"selectedQuestionIds":["32656"],"selectedPollIds":["27378"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":0.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["32661"],"selectedPollIds":["27383"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-0.23956,"selectedQuestionIds":["117347"],"selectedPollIds":["1081"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-12.5,"signedError":-5.73956,"selectedQuestionIds":["117332"],"selectedPollIds":["27375"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":1.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["117573"],"selectedPollIds":["1072"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":0.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["32654"],"selectedPollIds":["1071"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"114","pollster":"Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group","date":"2010-10-19","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":1.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["32665"],"selectedPollIds":["1092"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2010-10-24","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":6.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["117567"],"selectedPollIds":["27384"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"2010-10-27","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-6.23956,"selectedQuestionIds":["32658"],"selectedPollIds":["28731"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"253","pollster":"Pew Research Center","date":"2010-10-29","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":0.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["32657"],"selectedPollIds":["27379"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"258","pollster":"Princeton Survey Research Associates International","date":"2010-10-20","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":9.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["32664"],"selectedPollIds":["1088"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"301","pollster":"Schoen Cooperman Research","date":"2010-10-22","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-2.23956,"selectedQuestionIds":["117331"],"selectedPollIds":["63732"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"776","pollster":"Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)","date":"2010-10-28","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":-5.23956,"selectedQuestionIds":["32655"],"selectedPollIds":["27377"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2010-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":3.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["32660"],"selectedPollIds":["27382"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"385","pollster":"The Winston Group","date":"2010-10-23","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":8.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["124139"],"selectedPollIds":["43150"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2010-10-30","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-0.23956,"selectedQuestionIds":["117596"],"selectedPollIds":["1073"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"395","pollster":"Zogby Analytics","date":"2010-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":1.76044,"selectedQuestionIds":["117601"],"selectedPollIds":["63872"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8661","race":"1998_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":1998,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":1998,"electionDate":"1998-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":45.222222,"pollRep":42.611111,"pollMargin":2.611111,"actualDem":47.226328,"actualRep":48.367575,"actualMargin":-1.141247,"actualDRShare":95.593904,"signedError":3.752358,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.752358,"individualPollMAE":6.134026,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["1998-10-23","1998-11-02"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-house.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL regular House general counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":-0.888491,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.252756,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"1998-10-31","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.141247,"selectedQuestionIds":["120403"],"selectedPollIds":["36819"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"810","pollster":"CBS News","date":"1998-10-31","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.141247,"selectedQuestionIds":["33530"],"selectedPollIds":["28252"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.858753,"selectedQuestionIds":["123195"],"selectedPollIds":["28257"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"112","pollster":"Gallup","date":"1998-11-02","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":10.141247,"selectedQuestionIds":["123079"],"selectedPollIds":["66174"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"1998-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.141247,"selectedQuestionIds":["33536"],"selectedPollIds":["28258"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"104","pollster":"Opinion Dynamics","date":"1998-10-28","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-8.858753,"selectedQuestionIds":["33534"],"selectedPollIds":["28256"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"250","pollster":"PSB Research","date":"1998-10-27","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":11.141247,"selectedQuestionIds":["123115"],"selectedPollIds":["66181"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"253","pollster":"Pew Research Center","date":"1998-10-30","pollMargin":5.5,"signedError":6.641247,"selectedQuestionIds":["123122","33533"],"selectedPollIds":["66188","66189"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"1998-10-23","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":6.141247,"selectedQuestionIds":["33539"],"selectedPollIds":["28261"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"87","race":"2016_Sen-G_AZ","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Ann Kirkpatrick","republican":"John McCain","pollDem":41.125,"pollRep":50.75,"pollMargin":-9.625,"actualDem":40.748914,"actualRep":53.710471,"actualMargin":-12.961557,"actualDRShare":94.459385,"signedError":3.336557,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.336557,"individualPollMAE":4.105778,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2016-10-27","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-12.961557,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":-0.038443,"selectedQuestionIds":["75247"],"selectedPollIds":["48087"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"73","pollster":"Data Orbital","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":0.961557,"selectedQuestionIds":["76189"],"selectedPollIds":["48628"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":6.961557,"selectedQuestionIds":["75210"],"selectedPollIds":["48078"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"572","pollster":"Leger","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":4.961557,"selectedQuestionIds":["76606"],"selectedPollIds":["48912"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"175","pollster":"Lucid","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":0.961557,"selectedQuestionIds":["75317"],"selectedPollIds":["48102"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-16.0,"signedError":-3.038443,"selectedQuestionIds":["75579"],"selectedPollIds":["48211"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":7.961557,"selectedQuestionIds":["76518"],"selectedPollIds":["48862"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":7.961557,"selectedQuestionIds":["74792"],"selectedPollIds":["47778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8729","race":"2020_Gov-G_WA","series":"governor","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2020,"electionDate":"2020-11-03","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Jay Robert Inslee","republican":"Loren Culp","pollDem":59.1,"pollRep":40.9,"pollMargin":18.2,"actualDem":56.557846,"actualRep":43.118103,"actualMargin":13.439743,"actualDRShare":99.675949,"signedError":4.760257,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.760257,"individualPollMAE":4.760257,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2020-10-27","2020-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":13.439743,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"543","pollster":"Swayable","date":"2020-10-27","pollMargin":18.2,"signedError":4.760257,"selectedQuestionIds":["136575"],"selectedPollIds":["72787"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8737","race":"2020_Sen-R_GA","series":"senate","year":2020,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2021,"electionDate":"2021-01-05","raceKind":"R","location":"GA","democrat":"Jon Ossoff","republican":"David A. Perdue","pollDem":49.077778,"pollRep":47.711111,"pollMargin":1.366667,"actualDem":50.612544,"actualRep":49.387456,"actualMargin":1.225088,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.141579,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.141579,"individualPollMAE":2.48614,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2020-12-24","2021-01-03"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/4228/federalelections2020.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":1.225088,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2021-01-03","pollMargin":4.5,"signedError":3.274912,"selectedQuestionIds":["138823"],"selectedPollIds":["73993"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2020-12-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":1.774912,"selectedQuestionIds":["138744"],"selectedPollIds":["73956"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2021-01-03","pollMargin":-0.1,"signedError":-1.325088,"selectedQuestionIds":["138821"],"selectedPollIds":["73992"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"156","pollster":"JMC Analytics","date":"2020-12-28","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":6.774912,"selectedQuestionIds":["138671"],"selectedPollIds":["73908"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"225","pollster":"National Research","date":"2021-01-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-0.225088,"selectedQuestionIds":["138819"],"selectedPollIds":["73991"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"629","pollster":"Open Model Project","date":"2020-12-24","pollMargin":-3.9,"signedError":-5.125088,"selectedQuestionIds":["138646"],"selectedPollIds":["73898"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2021-01-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-1.225088,"selectedQuestionIds":["138755"],"selectedPollIds":["73959"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2021-01-03","pollMargin":0.9,"signedError":-0.325088,"selectedQuestionIds":["138845"],"selectedPollIds":["74006"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"609","pollster":"University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School","date":"2021-01-01","pollMargin":-1.1,"signedError":-2.325088,"selectedQuestionIds":["138753"],"selectedPollIds":["73958"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"88","race":"2016_Sen-G_GA","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Jim Barksdale","republican":"Johnny Isakson","pollDem":40.457143,"pollRep":49.142857,"pollMargin":-8.685714,"actualDem":41.033293,"actualRep":54.783852,"actualMargin":-13.750559,"actualDRShare":95.817145,"signedError":5.064845,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.064845,"individualPollMAE":5.064845,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2016-10-30","2016-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-13.750559,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"1","pollster":"20/20 Insight","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":6.750559,"selectedQuestionIds":["124925"],"selectedPollIds":["66903"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":5.750559,"selectedQuestionIds":["75212"],"selectedPollIds":["48080"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-10.8,"signedError":2.950559,"selectedQuestionIds":["75729"],"selectedPollIds":["48341"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"751","pollster":"Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":2.750559,"selectedQuestionIds":["76069"],"selectedPollIds":["48525"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-10-31","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":2.750559,"selectedQuestionIds":["75583"],"selectedPollIds":["48209"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":7.750559,"selectedQuestionIds":["76524"],"selectedPollIds":["48870"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":6.750559,"selectedQuestionIds":["76254"],"selectedPollIds":["48682"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8917","race":"2022_Sen-G_AL","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Will Boyd","republican":"Katie Britt","pollDem":27.5,"pollRep":57.1,"pollMargin":-29.6,"actualDem":30.882072,"actualRep":66.619197,"actualMargin":-35.737125,"actualDRShare":97.501269,"signedError":6.137125,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.137125,"individualPollMAE":6.137125,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-35.737125,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-29.6,"signedError":6.137125,"selectedQuestionIds":["164465"],"selectedPollIds":["81391"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8919","race":"2022_Sen-G_AZ","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Mark Kelly","republican":"Blake Masters","pollDem":48.65,"pollRep":46.76,"pollMargin":1.89,"actualDem":51.394864,"actualRep":46.507437,"actualMargin":4.887427,"actualDRShare":97.9023,"signedError":-2.997427,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.997427,"individualPollMAE":3.619942,"n":20,"pollsters":20,"sourceQuestions":20,"selectedQuestions":20,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":4.887427,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164573"],"selectedPollIds":["81429"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"715","pollster":"Center Street PAC","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":5.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["164454"],"selectedPollIds":["81386"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-4.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164763"],"selectedPollIds":["81455"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"73","pollster":"Data Orbital","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":1.7,"signedError":-3.187427,"selectedQuestionIds":["165192"],"selectedPollIds":["81596"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-5.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["165271"],"selectedPollIds":["81618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-0.4,"signedError":-5.287427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164965"],"selectedPollIds":["81521"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"90","pollster":"Fabrizio, Lee & Associates","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164398"],"selectedPollIds":["81365"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"416","pollster":"HighGround Inc.","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":1.4,"signedError":-3.487427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164904"],"selectedPollIds":["81499"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-4.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164909"],"selectedPollIds":["81502"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"757","pollster":"KAConsulting","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["165024"],"selectedPollIds":["81531"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-0.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164922"],"selectedPollIds":["81508"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"235","pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-2.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164384"],"selectedPollIds":["81359"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"732","pollster":"Patriot Polling","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":0.7,"signedError":-4.187427,"selectedQuestionIds":["165048"],"selectedPollIds":["81545"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"699","pollster":"Phillips Academy","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":0.6,"signedError":-4.287427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164491"],"selectedPollIds":["81401"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164875"],"selectedPollIds":["81490"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-0.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["165128"],"selectedPollIds":["81581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.887427,"selectedQuestionIds":["165300"],"selectedPollIds":["81626"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.112573,"selectedQuestionIds":["164379"],"selectedPollIds":["81354"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-1.5,"signedError":-6.387427,"selectedQuestionIds":["165305"],"selectedPollIds":["81629"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":2.3,"signedError":-2.587427,"selectedQuestionIds":["164402"],"selectedPollIds":["81366"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8922","race":"2022_Sen-G_CO","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Michael Bennet","republican":"Joe O'Dea","pollDem":50.25,"pollRep":44.1,"pollMargin":6.15,"actualDem":55.882307,"actualRep":41.264402,"actualMargin":14.617905,"actualDRShare":97.146709,"signedError":-8.467905,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.467905,"individualPollMAE":8.467905,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":14.61832,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.000415,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-7.617905,"selectedQuestionIds":["165242"],"selectedPollIds":["81615"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":8.1,"signedError":-6.517905,"selectedQuestionIds":["164496"],"selectedPollIds":["81404"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":1.5,"signedError":-13.117905,"selectedQuestionIds":["164812"],"selectedPollIds":["81463"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"514","pollster":"co/efficient","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-6.617905,"selectedQuestionIds":["165275"],"selectedPollIds":["81620"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8923","race":"2022_Sen-G_CT","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Richard Blumenthal","republican":"Leora R. Levy","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":26.0,"pollMargin":25.0,"actualDem":57.454676,"actualRep":42.538974,"actualMargin":14.915703,"actualDRShare":99.99365,"signedError":10.084297,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.084297,"individualPollMAE":10.084297,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":13.114827,"outcomeMarginCorrection":1.800876,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"633","pollster":"Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":10.084297,"selectedQuestionIds":["164899"],"selectedPollIds":["81497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8924","race":"2022_Sen-G_FL","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Val Demings","republican":"Marco Rubio","pollDem":43.7125,"pollRep":51.5875,"pollMargin":-7.875,"actualDem":41.267288,"actualRep":57.680316,"actualMargin":-16.413028,"actualDRShare":98.947604,"signedError":8.538028,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.538028,"individualPollMAE":8.538028,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2022-10-26","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-16.413028,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"556","pollster":"Amber Integrated","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":7.413028,"selectedQuestionIds":["165052"],"selectedPollIds":["81546"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":9.413028,"selectedQuestionIds":["164761"],"selectedPollIds":["81453"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":4.413028,"selectedQuestionIds":["165232"],"selectedPollIds":["81613"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":10.413028,"selectedQuestionIds":["164755"],"selectedPollIds":["81450"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":6.413028,"selectedQuestionIds":["165131"],"selectedPollIds":["81583"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":8.413028,"selectedQuestionIds":["164944"],"selectedPollIds":["81513"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"673","pollster":"Victory Insights","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":12.413028,"selectedQuestionIds":["164774"],"selectedPollIds":["81460"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":9.413028,"selectedQuestionIds":["165021"],"selectedPollIds":["81530"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8925","race":"2022_Sen-G_GA","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Raphael Warnock","republican":"Herschel Junior Walker","pollDem":47.584211,"pollRep":47.052632,"pollMargin":0.531579,"actualDem":49.444984,"actualRep":48.487776,"actualMargin":0.957209,"actualDRShare":97.93276,"signedError":-0.42563,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.42563,"individualPollMAE":3.709792,"n":19,"pollsters":19,"sourceQuestions":20,"selectedQuestions":19,"dateRange":["2022-10-26","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":0.957209,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"556","pollster":"Amber Integrated","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.957209,"selectedQuestionIds":["165053"],"selectedPollIds":["81547"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-3.2,"signedError":-4.157209,"selectedQuestionIds":["166101"],"selectedPollIds":["81778"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.042791,"selectedQuestionIds":["164766"],"selectedPollIds":["81458"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-1.957209,"selectedQuestionIds":["165274"],"selectedPollIds":["81619"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"523","pollster":"East Carolina University Center for Survey Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.957209,"selectedQuestionIds":["165161"],"selectedPollIds":["81594"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"407","pollster":"Echelon Insights","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.957209,"selectedQuestionIds":["164863"],"selectedPollIds":["81485"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":1.9,"signedError":0.942791,"selectedQuestionIds":["164873"],"selectedPollIds":["81488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.957209,"selectedQuestionIds":["165162"],"selectedPollIds":["81595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-0.4,"signedError":-1.357209,"selectedQuestionIds":["165126"],"selectedPollIds":["81579"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.042791,"selectedQuestionIds":["164923"],"selectedPollIds":["81509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"217","pollster":"Moore Information Group","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-5.957209,"selectedQuestionIds":["164914"],"selectedPollIds":["81504"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"490","pollster":"Patinkin Research Strategies","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":3.042791,"selectedQuestionIds":["164972"],"selectedPollIds":["81525"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.957209,"selectedQuestionIds":["164893"],"selectedPollIds":["81494"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.957209,"selectedQuestionIds":["165132"],"selectedPollIds":["81584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":5.042791,"selectedQuestionIds":["164895"],"selectedPollIds":["81495"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.957209,"selectedQuestionIds":["165297"],"selectedPollIds":["81625"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":2.042791,"selectedQuestionIds":["164380"],"selectedPollIds":["81355"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"677","pollster":"The Political Matrix/The Listener Group","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":17.042791,"selectedQuestionIds":["166103"],"selectedPollIds":["81780"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-3.2,"signedError":-4.157209,"selectedQuestionIds":["165157"],"selectedPollIds":["81592"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8928","race":"2022_Sen-G_IL","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"Tammy Duckworth","republican":"Kathy Salvi","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":18.0,"actualDem":56.823496,"actualRep":41.500321,"actualMargin":15.323175,"actualDRShare":98.323817,"signedError":2.676825,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.676825,"individualPollMAE":2.676825,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-11-05","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":15.323175,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":18.0,"signedError":2.676825,"selectedQuestionIds":["165133"],"selectedPollIds":["81585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8929","race":"2022_Sen-G_IN","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IN","democrat":"Thomas McDermott","republican":"Todd Young","pollDem":38.0,"pollRep":49.0,"pollMargin":-11.0,"actualDem":37.872133,"actualRep":58.618265,"actualMargin":-20.746132,"actualDRShare":96.490398,"signedError":9.746132,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.746132,"individualPollMAE":9.746132,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-11-06","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-20.746132,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":9.746132,"selectedQuestionIds":["165209"],"selectedPollIds":["81606"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8930","race":"2022_Sen-G_IA","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Michael Franken","republican":"Chuck Grassley","pollDem":41.85,"pollRep":53.45,"pollMargin":-11.6,"actualDem":43.836087,"actualRep":56.014732,"actualMargin":-12.178645,"actualDRShare":99.850819,"signedError":0.578645,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.578645,"individualPollMAE":0.578645,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2022-10-26","2022-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-12.178645,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-11.2,"signedError":0.978645,"selectedQuestionIds":["164404"],"selectedPollIds":["81367"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":0.178645,"selectedQuestionIds":["165072"],"selectedPollIds":["81560"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8931","race":"2022_Sen-G_KS","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Mark R. Holland","republican":"Jerry Moran","pollDem":32.6,"pollRep":54.2,"pollMargin":-21.6,"actualDem":37.03784,"actualRep":60.000239,"actualMargin":-22.962398,"actualDRShare":97.038079,"signedError":1.362398,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.362398,"individualPollMAE":1.362398,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-22.962398,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-21.6,"signedError":1.362398,"selectedQuestionIds":["164660"],"selectedPollIds":["81438"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8936","race":"2022_Sen-G_MO","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MO","democrat":"Trudy Busch Valentine","republican":"Eric Schmitt","pollDem":40.85,"pollRep":52.975,"pollMargin":-12.125,"actualDem":42.176857,"actualRep":55.432283,"actualMargin":-13.255426,"actualDRShare":97.60914,"signedError":1.130426,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.130426,"individualPollMAE":2.125,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2022-10-27","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-13.255426,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":-1.744574,"selectedQuestionIds":["165210"],"selectedPollIds":["81607"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":-13.5,"signedError":-0.244574,"selectedQuestionIds":["164497"],"selectedPollIds":["81405"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":4.255426,"selectedQuestionIds":["164815"],"selectedPollIds":["81464"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":2.255426,"selectedQuestionIds":["164924"],"selectedPollIds":["81510"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8937","race":"2022_Sen-G_NV","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Catherine Cortez Masto","republican":"Adam Paul Laxalt","pollDem":44.890909,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":-2.109091,"actualDem":48.813832,"actualRep":48.037224,"actualMargin":0.776608,"actualDRShare":96.851055,"signedError":-2.885699,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.885699,"individualPollMAE":3.189367,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":0.776608,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-2.5,"signedError":-3.276608,"selectedQuestionIds":["164959"],"selectedPollIds":["81518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.776608,"selectedQuestionIds":["165228"],"selectedPollIds":["81612"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"407","pollster":"Echelon Insights","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.776608,"selectedQuestionIds":["164281"],"selectedPollIds":["81312"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-5.2,"signedError":-5.976608,"selectedQuestionIds":["164577"],"selectedPollIds":["81430"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-6.776608,"selectedQuestionIds":["165068"],"selectedPollIds":["81558"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"757","pollster":"KAConsulting","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.223392,"selectedQuestionIds":["165025"],"selectedPollIds":["81532"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"235","pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":1.223392,"selectedQuestionIds":["164442"],"selectedPollIds":["81377"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-1.776608,"selectedQuestionIds":["165134"],"selectedPollIds":["81586"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.223392,"selectedQuestionIds":["164548"],"selectedPollIds":["81418"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-5.6,"signedError":-6.376608,"selectedQuestionIds":["164659"],"selectedPollIds":["81437"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-4.9,"signedError":-5.676608,"selectedQuestionIds":["166099"],"selectedPollIds":["81775"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8938","race":"2022_Sen-G_NH","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Maggie Hassan","republican":"Donald C. Bolduc","pollDem":48.211111,"pollRep":46.822222,"pollMargin":1.388889,"actualDem":53.543218,"actualRep":44.386811,"actualMargin":9.156407,"actualDRShare":97.930029,"signedError":-7.767518,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.767518,"individualPollMAE":7.767518,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":9.060751,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.095656,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-6.156407,"selectedQuestionIds":["165221"],"selectedPollIds":["81609"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":4.5,"signedError":-4.656407,"selectedQuestionIds":["164960"],"selectedPollIds":["81519"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":1.8,"signedError":-7.356407,"selectedQuestionIds":["165107"],"selectedPollIds":["81572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"699","pollster":"Phillips Academy","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":3.6,"signedError":-5.556407,"selectedQuestionIds":["165123"],"selectedPollIds":["81578"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"494","pollster":"Saint Anselm College Survey Center","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-10.156407,"selectedQuestionIds":["164527"],"selectedPollIds":["81413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-1.3,"signedError":-10.456407,"selectedQuestionIds":["164822"],"selectedPollIds":["81469"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-7.156407,"selectedQuestionIds":["165106"],"selectedPollIds":["81569"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-0.1,"signedError":-9.256407,"selectedQuestionIds":["165099"],"selectedPollIds":["81568"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"514","pollster":"co/efficient","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-9.156407,"selectedQuestionIds":["164324"],"selectedPollIds":["81324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8939","race":"2022_Sen-G_NY","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NY","democrat":"Charles E. Schumer","republican":"Joe Pinion","pollDem":54.433333,"pollRep":36.916667,"pollMargin":17.516667,"actualDem":56.735473,"actualRep":42.734943,"actualMargin":14.00053,"actualDRShare":99.470416,"signedError":3.516137,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.516137,"individualPollMAE":5.31649,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":13.981957,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.018573,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":2.99947,"selectedQuestionIds":["164764"],"selectedPollIds":["81456"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":18.5,"signedError":4.49947,"selectedQuestionIds":["164545"],"selectedPollIds":["81419"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"757","pollster":"KAConsulting","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-2.00053,"selectedQuestionIds":["164429"],"selectedPollIds":["81372"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"633","pollster":"Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":27.0,"signedError":12.99947,"selectedQuestionIds":["164818"],"selectedPollIds":["81466"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":5.99947,"selectedQuestionIds":["165135"],"selectedPollIds":["81587"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":10.6,"signedError":-3.40053,"selectedQuestionIds":["164546"],"selectedPollIds":["81402"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8940","race":"2022_Sen-G_NC","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NC","democrat":"Cheri Beasley","republican":"Ted Budd","pollDem":45.314286,"pollRep":49.771429,"pollMargin":-4.457143,"actualDem":47.273051,"actualRep":50.498791,"actualMargin":-3.225741,"actualDRShare":97.771842,"signedError":-1.231402,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.231402,"individualPollMAE":2.731825,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":7,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-3.225741,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":3.225741,"selectedQuestionIds":["164762"],"selectedPollIds":["81454"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-2.774259,"selectedQuestionIds":["165206"],"selectedPollIds":["81603"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"523","pollster":"East Carolina University Center for Survey Research","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":-4.9,"signedError":-1.674259,"selectedQuestionIds":["165059"],"selectedPollIds":["81552"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-5.7,"signedError":-2.474259,"selectedQuestionIds":["164757"],"selectedPollIds":["81451"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"423","pollster":"Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":-1.2,"signedError":2.025741,"selectedQuestionIds":["164516"],"selectedPollIds":["81409"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-3.774259,"selectedQuestionIds":["164876"],"selectedPollIds":["81491"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-6.4,"signedError":-3.174259,"selectedQuestionIds":["165117"],"selectedPollIds":["81574"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8942","race":"2022_Sen-G_OH","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Tim Ryan","republican":"J.D. Vance","pollDem":44.711111,"pollRep":50.877778,"pollMargin":-6.166667,"actualDem":46.923023,"actualRep":53.034905,"actualMargin":-6.111882,"actualDRShare":99.957928,"signedError":-0.054784,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.054784,"individualPollMAE":3.018261,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-6.111882,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"715","pollster":"Center Street PAC","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":11.111882,"selectedQuestionIds":["164341"],"selectedPollIds":["81301"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":1.111882,"selectedQuestionIds":["165208"],"selectedPollIds":["81605"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":-6.2,"signedError":-0.088118,"selectedQuestionIds":["164964"],"selectedPollIds":["81520"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":-3.888118,"selectedQuestionIds":["165236"],"selectedPollIds":["81614"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-8.9,"signedError":-2.788118,"selectedQuestionIds":["165038"],"selectedPollIds":["81540"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":1.111882,"selectedQuestionIds":["164877"],"selectedPollIds":["81492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-1.888118,"selectedQuestionIds":["165136"],"selectedPollIds":["81588"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":-0.888118,"selectedQuestionIds":["165304"],"selectedPollIds":["81628"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-10.4,"signedError":-4.288118,"selectedQuestionIds":["165105"],"selectedPollIds":["81571"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8943","race":"2022_Sen-G_OK","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Madison Horn","republican":"James Lankford","pollDem":36.066667,"pollRep":56.5,"pollMargin":-20.433333,"actualDem":32.098699,"actualRep":64.303417,"actualMargin":-32.204718,"actualDRShare":96.402116,"signedError":11.771385,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.771385,"individualPollMAE":11.771385,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2022-10-27","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-32.204718,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"556","pollster":"Amber Integrated","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":18.204718,"selectedQuestionIds":["164819"],"selectedPollIds":["81467"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"726","pollster":"Ascend Action","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-20.0,"signedError":12.204718,"selectedQuestionIds":["165202"],"selectedPollIds":["81601"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":-27.3,"signedError":4.904718,"selectedQuestionIds":["164435"],"selectedPollIds":["81375"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8944","race":"2022_Sen-G_OR","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Ron Wyden","republican":"Jo Rae Perkins","pollDem":53.3,"pollRep":37.8,"pollMargin":15.5,"actualDem":55.832597,"actualRep":40.923852,"actualMargin":14.908745,"actualDRShare":96.756449,"signedError":0.591255,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.591255,"individualPollMAE":1.5,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2022-10-31","2022-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":14.908745,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-03","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.908745,"selectedQuestionIds":["165213"],"selectedPollIds":["81608"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":17.0,"signedError":2.091255,"selectedQuestionIds":["165046"],"selectedPollIds":["81544"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8945","race":"2022_Sen-G_PA","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"John Fetterman","republican":"Mehmet Oz","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":46.9875,"pollMargin":0.0125,"actualDem":51.173193,"actualRep":46.266987,"actualMargin":4.906206,"actualDRShare":97.44018,"signedError":-4.893706,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.893706,"individualPollMAE":5.178879,"n":16,"pollsters":16,"sourceQuestions":17,"selectedQuestions":16,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":4.913394,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.007187,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-1.906206,"selectedQuestionIds":["164767"],"selectedPollIds":["81459"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":-1.1,"signedError":-6.006206,"selectedQuestionIds":["164821"],"selectedPollIds":["81468"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-03","pollMargin":-2.3,"signedError":-7.206206,"selectedQuestionIds":["165018"],"selectedPollIds":["81529"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.093794,"selectedQuestionIds":["164921"],"selectedPollIds":["81507"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-4.906206,"selectedQuestionIds":["164555"],"selectedPollIds":["81421"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"732","pollster":"Patriot Polling","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-3.3,"signedError":-8.206206,"selectedQuestionIds":["165270"],"selectedPollIds":["81617"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-7.906206,"selectedQuestionIds":["164874"],"selectedPollIds":["81489"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-3.906206,"selectedQuestionIds":["165137"],"selectedPollIds":["81589"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":1.8,"signedError":-3.106206,"selectedQuestionIds":["164758"],"selectedPollIds":["81452"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-5.906206,"selectedQuestionIds":["164765"],"selectedPollIds":["81457"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-9.906206,"selectedQuestionIds":["165302"],"selectedPollIds":["81627"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":0.093794,"selectedQuestionIds":["164382"],"selectedPollIds":["81357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"677","pollster":"The Political Matrix/The Listener Group","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":1.093794,"selectedQuestionIds":["166102"],"selectedPollIds":["81779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":-2.2,"signedError":-7.106206,"selectedQuestionIds":["164925"],"selectedPollIds":["81511"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-1.7,"signedError":-6.606206,"selectedQuestionIds":["164332"],"selectedPollIds":["81327"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"514","pollster":"co/efficient","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-7.906206,"selectedQuestionIds":["164348"],"selectedPollIds":["81335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8950","race":"2022_Sen-G_WA","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WA","democrat":"Patty Murray","republican":"Tiffany Smiley","pollDem":48.75,"pollRep":46.85,"pollMargin":1.9,"actualDem":57.14843,"actualRep":42.630073,"actualMargin":14.518357,"actualDRShare":99.778503,"signedError":-12.618357,"absoluteAverageMiss":12.618357,"individualPollMAE":12.618357,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2022-10-26","2022-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":14.518357,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"497","pollster":"American Pulse Research & Polling","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":5.2,"signedError":-9.318357,"selectedQuestionIds":["164369"],"selectedPollIds":["81345"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":1.6,"signedError":-12.918357,"selectedQuestionIds":["164571"],"selectedPollIds":["81427"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"217","pollster":"Moore Information Group","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-0.4,"signedError":-14.918357,"selectedQuestionIds":["165204"],"selectedPollIds":["81602"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":1.2,"signedError":-13.318357,"selectedQuestionIds":["164371"],"selectedPollIds":["81347"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8951","race":"2022_Sen-G_WI","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Mandela Barnes","republican":"Ron Johnson","pollDem":46.89,"pollRep":49.83,"pollMargin":-2.94,"actualDem":49.405405,"actualRep":50.41269,"actualMargin":-1.007285,"actualDRShare":99.818095,"signedError":-1.932715,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.932715,"individualPollMAE":2.535629,"n":10,"pollsters":10,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":10,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-1.007285,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.992715,"selectedQuestionIds":["164572"],"selectedPollIds":["81428"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.007285,"selectedQuestionIds":["165207"],"selectedPollIds":["81604"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"52","pollster":"Clarity Campaign Labs","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":3.007285,"selectedQuestionIds":["164569"],"selectedPollIds":["81425"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-4.992715,"selectedQuestionIds":["165224"],"selectedPollIds":["81611"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-4.6,"signedError":-3.592715,"selectedQuestionIds":["164739"],"selectedPollIds":["81445"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.992715,"selectedQuestionIds":["164745"],"selectedPollIds":["81447"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-4.992715,"selectedQuestionIds":["165138"],"selectedPollIds":["81590"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.992715,"selectedQuestionIds":["164823"],"selectedPollIds":["81470"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-03","pollMargin":-2.7,"signedError":-1.692715,"selectedQuestionIds":["165067"],"selectedPollIds":["81557"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-4.1,"signedError":-3.092715,"selectedQuestionIds":["164570"],"selectedPollIds":["81426"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8952","race":"2022_Gov-G_AL","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AL","democrat":"Yolanda Rochelle Flowers","republican":"Kay Ivey","pollDem":25.3,"pollRep":59.5,"pollMargin":-34.2,"actualDem":29.178687,"actualRep":66.907608,"actualMargin":-37.728921,"actualDRShare":96.086295,"signedError":3.528921,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.528921,"individualPollMAE":3.528921,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-37.728921,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-34.2,"signedError":3.528921,"selectedQuestionIds":["164466"],"selectedPollIds":["81391"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8954","race":"2022_Gov-G_AZ","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Katie Hobbs","republican":"Kari Lake","pollDem":46.763158,"pollRep":49.610526,"pollMargin":-2.847368,"actualDem":50.318365,"actualRep":49.649597,"actualMargin":0.668767,"actualDRShare":99.967962,"signedError":-3.516136,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.516136,"individualPollMAE":3.551002,"n":19,"pollsters":19,"sourceQuestions":19,"selectedQuestions":19,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":0.668767,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"734","pollster":"Alloy Analytics","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164970"],"selectedPollIds":["81524"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-1.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164576"],"selectedPollIds":["81429"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164769"],"selectedPollIds":["81455"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"73","pollster":"Data Orbital","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-3.1,"signedError":-3.768767,"selectedQuestionIds":["165191"],"selectedPollIds":["81596"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["165272"],"selectedPollIds":["81618"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-3.5,"signedError":-4.168767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164966"],"selectedPollIds":["81521"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"90","pollster":"Fabrizio, Lee & Associates","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164400"],"selectedPollIds":["81365"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"416","pollster":"HighGround Inc.","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-1.4,"signedError":-2.068767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164905"],"selectedPollIds":["81499"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164910"],"selectedPollIds":["81502"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"757","pollster":"KAConsulting","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-4.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["165022"],"selectedPollIds":["81531"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":0.331233,"selectedQuestionIds":["164927"],"selectedPollIds":["81508"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"235","pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164385"],"selectedPollIds":["81359"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"699","pollster":"Phillips Academy","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":-11.1,"signedError":-11.768767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164488"],"selectedPollIds":["81401"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-3.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164880"],"selectedPollIds":["81490"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["165139"],"selectedPollIds":["81581"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-2.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["165309"],"selectedPollIds":["81626"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.668767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164493"],"selectedPollIds":["81354"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-3.6,"signedError":-4.268767,"selectedQuestionIds":["165314"],"selectedPollIds":["81629"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-2.4,"signedError":-3.068767,"selectedQuestionIds":["164403"],"selectedPollIds":["81366"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8956","race":"2022_Gov-G_CA","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CA","democrat":"Gavin Newsom","republican":"Brian Dahle","pollDem":60.0,"pollRep":38.333333,"pollMargin":21.666667,"actualDem":59.17949,"actualRep":40.82051,"actualMargin":18.358981,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":3.307686,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.307686,"individualPollMAE":3.307686,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":18.358981,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":1.641019,"selectedQuestionIds":["165140"],"selectedPollIds":["81582"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"457","pollster":"University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":21.0,"signedError":2.641019,"selectedQuestionIds":["165043"],"selectedPollIds":["81542"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"648","pollster":"University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":24.0,"signedError":5.641019,"selectedQuestionIds":["165041"],"selectedPollIds":["81541"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8957","race":"2022_Gov-G_CO","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CO","democrat":"Jared Polis","republican":"Heidi Ganahl","pollDem":53.2,"pollRep":42.075,"pollMargin":11.125,"actualDem":58.533903,"actualRep":39.184142,"actualMargin":19.349761,"actualDRShare":97.718045,"signedError":-8.224761,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.224761,"individualPollMAE":8.224761,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":19.349761,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-7.349761,"selectedQuestionIds":["165243"],"selectedPollIds":["81615"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":13.4,"signedError":-5.949761,"selectedQuestionIds":["164498"],"selectedPollIds":["81404"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":7.1,"signedError":-12.249761,"selectedQuestionIds":["164813"],"selectedPollIds":["81463"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"514","pollster":"co/efficient","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-7.349761,"selectedQuestionIds":["165276"],"selectedPollIds":["81620"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8959","race":"2022_Gov-G_FL","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Charlie Crist","republican":"Ron DeSantis","pollDem":42.933333,"pollRep":54.011111,"pollMargin":-11.077778,"actualDem":39.971091,"actualRep":59.374252,"actualMargin":-19.40316,"actualDRShare":99.345343,"signedError":8.325382,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.325382,"individualPollMAE":8.325382,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2022-10-26","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-19.40316,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"556","pollster":"Amber Integrated","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":6.40316,"selectedQuestionIds":["165049"],"selectedPollIds":["81546"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":10.40316,"selectedQuestionIds":["164768"],"selectedPollIds":["81453"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-15.0,"signedError":4.40316,"selectedQuestionIds":["165233"],"selectedPollIds":["81613"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":9.40316,"selectedQuestionIds":["164756"],"selectedPollIds":["81450"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":5.40316,"selectedQuestionIds":["165141"],"selectedPollIds":["81583"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":7.40316,"selectedQuestionIds":["164945"],"selectedPollIds":["81513"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"677","pollster":"The Political Matrix/The Listener Group","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":15.40316,"selectedQuestionIds":["165294"],"selectedPollIds":["81623"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"673","pollster":"Victory Insights","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-12.7,"signedError":6.70316,"selectedQuestionIds":["164773"],"selectedPollIds":["81460"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-10.0,"signedError":9.40316,"selectedQuestionIds":["165020"],"selectedPollIds":["81530"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8960","race":"2022_Gov-G_GA","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"GA","democrat":"Stacey Abrams","republican":"Brian Kemp","pollDem":44.429412,"pollRep":51.788235,"pollMargin":-7.358824,"actualDem":45.876191,"actualRep":53.411436,"actualMargin":-7.535246,"actualDRShare":99.287627,"signedError":0.176422,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.176422,"individualPollMAE":2.257425,"n":17,"pollsters":17,"sourceQuestions":18,"selectedQuestions":17,"dateRange":["2022-10-26","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-7.535246,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"556","pollster":"Amber Integrated","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-1.464754,"selectedQuestionIds":["165050"],"selectedPollIds":["81547"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":1.535246,"selectedQuestionIds":["164771"],"selectedPollIds":["81458"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-1.464754,"selectedQuestionIds":["165273"],"selectedPollIds":["81619"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"523","pollster":"East Carolina University Center for Survey Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-0.464754,"selectedQuestionIds":["165160"],"selectedPollIds":["81594"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"407","pollster":"Echelon Insights","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":0.535246,"selectedQuestionIds":["164866"],"selectedPollIds":["81485"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":-5.6,"signedError":1.935246,"selectedQuestionIds":["164878"],"selectedPollIds":["81488"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.535246,"selectedQuestionIds":["165163"],"selectedPollIds":["81595"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-6.6,"signedError":0.935246,"selectedQuestionIds":["165125"],"selectedPollIds":["81579"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":1.535246,"selectedQuestionIds":["164928"],"selectedPollIds":["81509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"490","pollster":"Patinkin Research Strategies","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":5.535246,"selectedQuestionIds":["164971"],"selectedPollIds":["81525"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-6.464754,"selectedQuestionIds":["164894"],"selectedPollIds":["81494"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":0.535246,"selectedQuestionIds":["165142"],"selectedPollIds":["81584"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"661","pollster":"Seven Letter Insight","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.535246,"selectedQuestionIds":["164742"],"selectedPollIds":["81446"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":0.535246,"selectedQuestionIds":["164896"],"selectedPollIds":["81495"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-6.464754,"selectedQuestionIds":["165306"],"selectedPollIds":["81625"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":2.535246,"selectedQuestionIds":["164495"],"selectedPollIds":["81355"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-8.9,"signedError":-1.364754,"selectedQuestionIds":["165158"],"selectedPollIds":["81592"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8963","race":"2022_Gov-G_IL","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IL","democrat":"J.B. Pritzker","republican":"Darren Bailey","pollDem":54.15,"pollRep":40.35,"pollMargin":13.8,"actualDem":54.907378,"actualRep":42.369043,"actualMargin":12.538335,"actualDRShare":97.276421,"signedError":1.261665,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.261665,"individualPollMAE":6.2,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2022-11-05","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":12.538335,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":7.461665,"selectedQuestionIds":["165143"],"selectedPollIds":["81585"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"437","pollster":"Victory Research","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":7.6,"signedError":-4.938335,"selectedQuestionIds":["166098"],"selectedPollIds":["81777"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8964","race":"2022_Gov-G_IA","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Deidre DeJear","republican":"Kim Reynolds","pollDem":37.55,"pollRep":55.55,"pollMargin":-18.0,"actualDem":39.525676,"actualRep":58.042303,"actualMargin":-18.516627,"actualDRShare":97.567978,"signedError":0.516627,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.516627,"individualPollMAE":1.0,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2022-10-26","2022-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-18.516627,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-19.0,"signedError":-0.483373,"selectedQuestionIds":["164405"],"selectedPollIds":["81367"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":-17.0,"signedError":1.516627,"selectedQuestionIds":["165078"],"selectedPollIds":["81560"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8965","race":"2022_Gov-G_KS","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"KS","democrat":"Laura Kelly","republican":"Derek Schmidt","pollDem":48.7,"pollRep":44.1,"pollMargin":4.6,"actualDem":49.539147,"actualRep":47.333196,"actualMargin":2.205951,"actualDRShare":96.872343,"signedError":2.394049,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.394049,"individualPollMAE":2.394049,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":2.205951,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":4.6,"signedError":2.394049,"selectedQuestionIds":["164658"],"selectedPollIds":["81438"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8966","race":"2022_Gov-G_ME","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Janet T. Mills","republican":"Paul R. LePage","pollDem":52.0,"pollRep":42.333333,"pollMargin":9.666667,"actualDem":55.691994,"actualRep":42.449163,"actualMargin":13.242832,"actualDRShare":98.141157,"signedError":-3.576165,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.576165,"individualPollMAE":4.747611,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":13.242832,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"726","pollster":"Ascend Action","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":1.757168,"selectedQuestionIds":["183593"],"selectedPollIds":["84407"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-7.242832,"selectedQuestionIds":["164957"],"selectedPollIds":["81517"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-5.242832,"selectedQuestionIds":["165110"],"selectedPollIds":["81570"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8969","race":"2022_Gov-G_MI","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MI","democrat":"Gretchen Whitmer","republican":"Tudor M. Dixon","pollDem":49.455556,"pollRep":45.211111,"pollMargin":4.244444,"actualDem":54.471543,"actualRep":43.940997,"actualMargin":10.530546,"actualDRShare":98.41254,"signedError":-6.286101,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.286101,"individualPollMAE":6.390424,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2022-10-27","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":10.530546,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2022-11-03","pollMargin":3.7,"signedError":-6.830546,"selectedQuestionIds":["165060"],"selectedPollIds":["81553"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"84","pollster":"EPIC-MRA","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":0.469454,"selectedQuestionIds":["164912"],"selectedPollIds":["81503"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":5.1,"signedError":-5.430546,"selectedQuestionIds":["164826"],"selectedPollIds":["81471"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"117","pollster":"Glengariff Group","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":8.6,"signedError":-1.930546,"selectedQuestionIds":["164456"],"selectedPollIds":["81388"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":-0.2,"signedError":-10.730546,"selectedQuestionIds":["164487"],"selectedPollIds":["81400"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"757","pollster":"KAConsulting","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":7.0,"signedError":-3.530546,"selectedQuestionIds":["164432"],"selectedPollIds":["81373"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2022-11-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-8.530546,"selectedQuestionIds":["164969"],"selectedPollIds":["81523"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-0.3,"signedError":-10.830546,"selectedQuestionIds":["166097"],"selectedPollIds":["81776"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":1.3,"signedError":-9.230546,"selectedQuestionIds":["164656"],"selectedPollIds":["81436"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8970","race":"2022_Gov-G_MN","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MN","democrat":"Tim Walz","republican":"Scott Jensen","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":8.0,"actualDem":52.271055,"actualRep":44.607416,"actualMargin":7.663639,"actualDRShare":96.878471,"signedError":0.336361,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.336361,"individualPollMAE":0.336361,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":7.663639,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":0.336361,"selectedQuestionIds":["164586"],"selectedPollIds":["81432"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8972","race":"2022_Gov-G_NV","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NV","democrat":"Steve Sisolak","republican":"Joe Lombardo","pollDem":44.436364,"pollRep":46.281818,"pollMargin":-1.845455,"actualDem":47.297097,"actualRep":48.806904,"actualMargin":-1.509806,"actualDRShare":96.104001,"signedError":-0.335648,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.335648,"individualPollMAE":1.870053,"n":11,"pollsters":11,"sourceQuestions":11,"selectedQuestions":11,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-1.509806,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-3.490194,"selectedQuestionIds":["164958"],"selectedPollIds":["81518"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.490194,"selectedQuestionIds":["165229"],"selectedPollIds":["81612"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"407","pollster":"Echelon Insights","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.509806,"selectedQuestionIds":["164283"],"selectedPollIds":["81312"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-2.490194,"selectedQuestionIds":["164814"],"selectedPollIds":["81430"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-5.2,"signedError":-3.690194,"selectedQuestionIds":["165071"],"selectedPollIds":["81558"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"757","pollster":"KAConsulting","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.490194,"selectedQuestionIds":["165023"],"selectedPollIds":["81532"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"235","pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":5.509806,"selectedQuestionIds":["164446"],"selectedPollIds":["81377"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.490194,"selectedQuestionIds":["165144"],"selectedPollIds":["81586"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-0.4,"signedError":1.109806,"selectedQuestionIds":["164551"],"selectedPollIds":["81418"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-1.2,"signedError":0.309806,"selectedQuestionIds":["164657"],"selectedPollIds":["81437"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-2.5,"signedError":-0.990194,"selectedQuestionIds":["166096"],"selectedPollIds":["81775"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8973","race":"2022_Gov-G_NH","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NH","democrat":"Tom Sherman","republican":"Chris Sununu","pollDem":38.75,"pollRep":55.6125,"pollMargin":-16.8625,"actualDem":41.471731,"actualRep":56.984826,"actualMargin":-15.513095,"actualDRShare":98.456556,"signedError":-1.349405,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.349405,"individualPollMAE":3.509226,"n":8,"pollsters":8,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":8,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-15.513095,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-2.486905,"selectedQuestionIds":["165222"],"selectedPollIds":["81609"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-20.8,"signedError":-5.286905,"selectedQuestionIds":["164961"],"selectedPollIds":["81519"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-15.3,"signedError":0.213095,"selectedQuestionIds":["165111"],"selectedPollIds":["81572"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"699","pollster":"Phillips Academy","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-22.2,"signedError":-6.686905,"selectedQuestionIds":["165124"],"selectedPollIds":["81578"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"494","pollster":"Saint Anselm College Survey Center","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-2.486905,"selectedQuestionIds":["164526"],"selectedPollIds":["81413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":3.513095,"selectedQuestionIds":["165109"],"selectedPollIds":["81569"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-10.6,"signedError":4.913095,"selectedQuestionIds":["165100"],"selectedPollIds":["81568"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"514","pollster":"co/efficient","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":-2.486905,"selectedQuestionIds":["164323"],"selectedPollIds":["81324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8974","race":"2022_Gov-G_NM","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NM","democrat":"Michelle Lujan Grisham","republican":"Mark V. Ronchetti","pollDem":49.6,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":1.6,"actualDem":51.971201,"actualRep":45.587682,"actualMargin":6.383519,"actualDRShare":97.558883,"signedError":-4.783519,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.783519,"individualPollMAE":4.783519,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-27","2022-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":6.383519,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":1.6,"signedError":-4.783519,"selectedQuestionIds":["164458"],"selectedPollIds":["81389"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8976","race":"2022_Gov-G_OH","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OH","democrat":"Nan Whaley","republican":"Mike DeWine","pollDem":36.433333,"pollRep":57.566667,"pollMargin":-21.133333,"actualDem":37.376904,"actualRep":62.406306,"actualMargin":-25.029402,"actualDRShare":99.78321,"signedError":3.896069,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.896069,"individualPollMAE":5.000646,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":10,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-25.029402,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"715","pollster":"Center Street PAC","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":12.029402,"selectedQuestionIds":["164211"],"selectedPollIds":["81301"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":11.029402,"selectedQuestionIds":["165212"],"selectedPollIds":["81605"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":-18.9,"signedError":6.129402,"selectedQuestionIds":["164963"],"selectedPollIds":["81520"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-24.0,"signedError":1.029402,"selectedQuestionIds":["165237"],"selectedPollIds":["81614"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":-20.8,"signedError":4.229402,"selectedQuestionIds":["165040"],"selectedPollIds":["81540"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":2.029402,"selectedQuestionIds":["164881"],"selectedPollIds":["81492"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-22.0,"signedError":3.029402,"selectedQuestionIds":["165146"],"selectedPollIds":["81588"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-30.0,"signedError":-4.970598,"selectedQuestionIds":["165313"],"selectedPollIds":["81628"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-24.5,"signedError":0.529402,"selectedQuestionIds":["165108"],"selectedPollIds":["81571"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8977","race":"2022_Gov-G_OK","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OK","democrat":"Joy Hofmeister","republican":"Kevin Stitt","pollDem":43.542857,"pollRep":47.6,"pollMargin":-4.057143,"actualDem":41.785371,"actualRep":55.448961,"actualMargin":-13.66359,"actualDRShare":97.234333,"signedError":9.606447,"absoluteAverageMiss":9.606447,"individualPollMAE":9.606447,"n":7,"pollsters":7,"sourceQuestions":8,"selectedQuestions":7,"dateRange":["2022-10-26","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-13.66359,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"556","pollster":"Amber Integrated","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":12.66359,"selectedQuestionIds":["164824"],"selectedPollIds":["81467"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"726","pollster":"Ascend Action","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":10.66359,"selectedQuestionIds":["165205"],"selectedPollIds":["81601"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"470","pollster":"Blueprint Polling","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":-8.5,"signedError":5.16359,"selectedQuestionIds":["165070"],"selectedPollIds":["81559"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":-9.6,"signedError":4.06359,"selectedQuestionIds":["164437"],"selectedPollIds":["81375"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"308","pollster":"SoonerPoll.com","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":3.3,"signedError":16.96359,"selectedQuestionIds":["164915"],"selectedPollIds":["81505"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"737","pollster":"Tomahawk Strategies","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":3.4,"signedError":17.06359,"selectedQuestionIds":["165058"],"selectedPollIds":["81551"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"383","pollster":"WPA Intelligence","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":-13.0,"signedError":0.66359,"selectedQuestionIds":["164862"],"selectedPollIds":["81484"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8978","race":"2022_Gov-G_OR","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OR","democrat":"Tina Kotek","republican":"Christine Drazan","pollDem":44.3,"pollRep":41.78,"pollMargin":2.52,"actualDem":46.960007,"actualRep":43.543162,"actualMargin":3.416846,"actualDRShare":90.503169,"signedError":-0.896846,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.896846,"individualPollMAE":2.196631,"n":5,"pollsters":5,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":5,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-03"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":3.416846,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"470","pollster":"Blueprint Polling","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.583154,"selectedQuestionIds":["165073"],"selectedPollIds":["81561"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":0.583154,"selectedQuestionIds":["165214"],"selectedPollIds":["81608"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-31","pollMargin":5.5,"signedError":2.083154,"selectedQuestionIds":["165045"],"selectedPollIds":["81544"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"91","pollster":"FM3 Research","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.416846,"selectedQuestionIds":["165051"],"selectedPollIds":["81548"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"703","pollster":"Nelson Research","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-2.9,"signedError":-6.316846,"selectedQuestionIds":["164807"],"selectedPollIds":["81462"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8979","race":"2022_Gov-G_PA","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"PA","democrat":"Josh Shapiro","republican":"Douglas V. Mastriano","pollDem":52.65625,"pollRep":41.19375,"pollMargin":11.4625,"actualDem":56.485947,"actualRep":41.714542,"actualMargin":14.771404,"actualDRShare":98.200489,"signedError":-3.308904,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.308904,"individualPollMAE":4.769628,"n":16,"pollsters":16,"sourceQuestions":17,"selectedQuestions":16,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":14.771404,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":1.228596,"selectedQuestionIds":["164772"],"selectedPollIds":["81459"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"715","pollster":"Center Street PAC","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":25.0,"signedError":10.228596,"selectedQuestionIds":["164330"],"selectedPollIds":["81326"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":10.4,"signedError":-4.371404,"selectedQuestionIds":["164825"],"selectedPollIds":["81468"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-11-03","pollMargin":7.7,"signedError":-7.071404,"selectedQuestionIds":["165019"],"selectedPollIds":["81529"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":0.228596,"selectedQuestionIds":["164926"],"selectedPollIds":["81507"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"219","pollster":"Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":-0.771404,"selectedQuestionIds":["164557"],"selectedPollIds":["81421"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"732","pollster":"Patriot Polling","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":6.5,"signedError":-8.271404,"selectedQuestionIds":["165269"],"selectedPollIds":["81617"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"279","pollster":"Remington Research Group","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-2.771404,"selectedQuestionIds":["164879"],"selectedPollIds":["81489"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-2.771404,"selectedQuestionIds":["165147"],"selectedPollIds":["81589"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":12.0,"signedError":-2.771404,"selectedQuestionIds":["164760"],"selectedPollIds":["81452"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"326","pollster":"Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":13.6,"signedError":-1.171404,"selectedQuestionIds":["164911"],"selectedPollIds":["81457"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":-8.771404,"selectedQuestionIds":["165311"],"selectedPollIds":["81627"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":13.0,"signedError":-1.771404,"selectedQuestionIds":["164494"],"selectedPollIds":["81357"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":4.3,"signedError":-10.471404,"selectedQuestionIds":["164929"],"selectedPollIds":["81511"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":5.9,"signedError":-8.871404,"selectedQuestionIds":["164331"],"selectedPollIds":["81327"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"514","pollster":"co/efficient","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":10.0,"signedError":-4.771404,"selectedQuestionIds":["164347"],"selectedPollIds":["81335"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8984","race":"2022_Gov-G_TX","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"TX","democrat":"Beto O'Rourke","republican":"Greg Abbott","pollDem":42.0,"pollRep":53.0,"pollMargin":-11.0,"actualDem":43.856551,"actualRep":54.759341,"actualMargin":-10.902789,"actualDRShare":98.615892,"signedError":-0.097211,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.097211,"individualPollMAE":0.097211,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-11-04","2022-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-10.902789,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"697","pollster":"CWS Research","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":-0.097211,"selectedQuestionIds":["165198"],"selectedPollIds":["81599"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8986","race":"2022_Gov-G_WI","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WI","democrat":"Tony Evers","republican":"Tim Michels","pollDem":48.077778,"pollRep":48.277778,"pollMargin":-0.2,"actualDem":51.149223,"actualRep":47.752297,"actualMargin":3.396926,"actualDRShare":98.90152,"signedError":-3.596926,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.596926,"individualPollMAE":3.596926,"n":9,"pollsters":9,"sourceQuestions":9,"selectedQuestions":9,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-11-06"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":3.396926,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-4.396926,"selectedQuestionIds":["164575"],"selectedPollIds":["81428"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"471","pollster":"Civiqs","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":-0.396926,"selectedQuestionIds":["165211"],"selectedPollIds":["81604"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-5.396926,"selectedQuestionIds":["165225"],"selectedPollIds":["81611"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-1.9,"signedError":-5.296926,"selectedQuestionIds":["164740"],"selectedPollIds":["81445"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"195","pollster":"Marquette University Law School","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.396926,"selectedQuestionIds":["164747"],"selectedPollIds":["81447"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-3.396926,"selectedQuestionIds":["165148"],"selectedPollIds":["81590"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-1.396926,"selectedQuestionIds":["164827"],"selectedPollIds":["81470"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-03","pollMargin":-1.6,"signedError":-4.996926,"selectedQuestionIds":["165069"],"selectedPollIds":["81557"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"284","pollster":"Wick","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-0.3,"signedError":-3.696926,"selectedQuestionIds":["164574"],"selectedPollIds":["81426"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8987","race":"2022_Gov-G_WY","series":"governor","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WY","democrat":"Theresa A. Livingston","republican":"Mark Gordon","pollDem":23.6,"pollRep":75.9,"pollMargin":-52.3,"actualDem":15.817526,"actualRep":74.070103,"actualMargin":-58.252577,"actualDRShare":89.887629,"signedError":5.952577,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.952577,"individualPollMAE":5.952577,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms","actual-major-party-share-below-90","provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-58.252577,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"667","pollster":"University of Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-52.3,"signedError":5.952577,"selectedQuestionIds":["165056"],"selectedPollIds":["81549"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"8988","race":"2021_Gov-G_NJ","series":"governor","year":2021,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2021,"electionDate":"2021-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"NJ","democrat":"Philip Murphy","republican":"Jack M. Ciattarelli","pollDem":50.4,"pollRep":42.533333,"pollMargin":7.866667,"actualDem":51.224834,"actualRep":48.001519,"actualMargin":3.223315,"actualDRShare":99.226353,"signedError":4.643352,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.643352,"individualPollMAE":4.643352,"n":6,"pollsters":6,"sourceQuestions":6,"selectedQuestions":6,"dateRange":["2021-10-21","2021-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":3.223315,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"92","pollster":"Fairleigh Dickinson University","date":"2021-10-25","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":5.776685,"selectedQuestionIds":["148771"],"selectedPollIds":["77143"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2021-10-23","pollMargin":11.0,"signedError":7.776685,"selectedQuestionIds":["148626"],"selectedPollIds":["77052"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2021-10-31","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":2.776685,"selectedQuestionIds":["148830"],"selectedPollIds":["77165"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"295","pollster":"Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling","date":"2021-10-24","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":4.776685,"selectedQuestionIds":["148821"],"selectedPollIds":["77159"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"317","pollster":"Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy","date":"2021-10-21","pollMargin":9.0,"signedError":5.776685,"selectedQuestionIds":["148733"],"selectedPollIds":["77135"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2021-10-30","pollMargin":4.2,"signedError":0.976685,"selectedQuestionIds":["148820"],"selectedPollIds":["77158"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8989","race":"2021_Gov-G_VA","series":"governor","year":2021,"yearParity":"odd","calendarElectionYear":2021,"electionDate":"2021-11-02","raceKind":"G","location":"VA","democrat":"Terry R. McAuliffe","republican":"Glenn Youngkin","pollDem":46.671429,"pollRep":47.742857,"pollMargin":-1.071429,"actualDem":48.644172,"actualRep":50.57399,"actualMargin":-1.929818,"actualDRShare":99.218162,"signedError":0.858389,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.858389,"individualPollMAE":2.247117,"n":14,"pollsters":14,"sourceQuestions":14,"selectedQuestions":14,"dateRange":["2021-10-20","2021-10-31"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["provisional-governor-outcome"],"outcomeStatus":"archive-provisional","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/be387bc1649413be1c85f2181b2c32aacee24315/pollster-ratings/raw_polls.csv","outcomeSourceName":"FiveThirtyEight supplied governor outcome; not independently count-matched","archiveActualMargin":-1.929818,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2021-10-26","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-6.070182,"selectedQuestionIds":["148749"],"selectedPollIds":["77137"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"50","pollster":"Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership","date":"2021-10-21","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.929818,"selectedQuestionIds":["148598"],"selectedPollIds":["77049"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2021-10-20","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":1.929818,"selectedQuestionIds":["146693"],"selectedPollIds":["76932"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"407","pollster":"Echelon Insights","date":"2021-10-28","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":-1.070182,"selectedQuestionIds":["148772"],"selectedPollIds":["77144"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2021-10-22","pollMargin":0.9,"signedError":2.829818,"selectedQuestionIds":["146815"],"selectedPollIds":["77035"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2021-10-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.070182,"selectedQuestionIds":["148813"],"selectedPollIds":["77152"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"757","pollster":"KAConsulting","date":"2021-10-20","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":-0.070182,"selectedQuestionIds":["146692"],"selectedPollIds":["76931"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2021-10-31","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":0.929818,"selectedQuestionIds":["148829"],"selectedPollIds":["77164"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"292","pollster":"Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research","date":"2021-10-21","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.929818,"selectedQuestionIds":["148790"],"selectedPollIds":["77148"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"323","pollster":"Suffolk University","date":"2021-10-23","pollMargin":0.4,"signedError":2.329818,"selectedQuestionIds":["146816"],"selectedPollIds":["77036"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"454","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","date":"2021-10-29","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":4.929818,"selectedQuestionIds":["148828"],"selectedPollIds":["77163"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"754","pollster":"The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government","date":"2021-10-23","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":2.929818,"selectedQuestionIds":["148752"],"selectedPollIds":["77140"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2021-10-30","pollMargin":-2.3,"signedError":-0.370182,"selectedQuestionIds":["148818"],"selectedPollIds":["77155"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"514","pollster":"co/efficient","date":"2021-10-20","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-2.070182,"selectedQuestionIds":["148750"],"selectedPollIds":["77138"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]}]},{"raceId":"8990","race":"2022_House-G_US","series":"house-generic","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Generic Candidate","republican":"Generic Candidate","pollDem":46.265385,"pollRep":47.22,"pollMargin":-0.954615,"actualDem":47.895937,"actualRep":50.504535,"actualMargin":-2.608598,"actualDRShare":98.400472,"signedError":1.653982,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.653982,"individualPollMAE":2.633307,"n":26,"pollsters":26,"sourceQuestions":39,"selectedQuestions":26,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-07"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC general-election House candidate counts; all 435 districts; candidate-aligned D/R totals","archiveActualMargin":-2.637168,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.028571,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["165093"],"selectedPollIds":["81566"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"733","pollster":"African American Research Collaborative","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":2.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["166091"],"selectedPollIds":["81650"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"546","pollster":"AtlasIntel","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":-3.1,"signedError":-0.491402,"selectedQuestionIds":["165244"],"selectedPollIds":["81616"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"30","pollster":"Benenson Strategy Group","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["164918"],"selectedPollIds":["81506"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2022-11-03","pollMargin":3.8,"signedError":6.408598,"selectedQuestionIds":["164976"],"selectedPollIds":["81526"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"48","pollster":"Change Research","date":"2022-11-03","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["173758"],"selectedPollIds":["82892"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"67","pollster":"Cygnal","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":-3.1,"signedError":-0.491402,"selectedQuestionIds":["164518"],"selectedPollIds":["81410"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.391402,"selectedQuestionIds":["165195"],"selectedPollIds":["81598"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"407","pollster":"Echelon Insights","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":4.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["164242"],"selectedPollIds":["81309"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"126","pollster":"GQR","date":"2022-11-07","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["166094"],"selectedPollIds":["81674"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["165097"],"selectedPollIds":["81567"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"14","pollster":"Impact Research","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["165118"],"selectedPollIds":["81575"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":-4.7,"signedError":-2.091402,"selectedQuestionIds":["164275"],"selectedPollIds":["81310"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2022-11-06","pollMargin":1.21,"signedError":3.818598,"selectedQuestionIds":["166075"],"selectedPollIds":["81621"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":2.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["164614"],"selectedPollIds":["81433"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":7.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["165194"],"selectedPollIds":["81597"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"696","pollster":"NewsNation","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":-1.23,"signedError":1.378598,"selectedQuestionIds":["164668"],"selectedPollIds":["81440"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"709","pollster":"Premise","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":4.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["166088"],"selectedPollIds":["81635"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"260","pollster":"Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":8.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["167245"],"selectedPollIds":["82000"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.391402,"selectedQuestionIds":["164677"],"selectedPollIds":["81443"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":-5.0,"signedError":-2.391402,"selectedQuestionIds":["164968"],"selectedPollIds":["81522"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-4.0,"signedError":-1.391402,"selectedQuestionIds":["164618"],"selectedPollIds":["81434"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-5.7,"signedError":-3.091402,"selectedQuestionIds":["165286"],"selectedPollIds":["81622"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"666","pollster":"Tufts University Public Opinion Lab","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":3.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["164335"],"selectedPollIds":["81330"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"383","pollster":"WPA Intelligence","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":0.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["178618"],"selectedPollIds":["83374"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":1.608598,"selectedQuestionIds":["165185"],"selectedPollIds":["81591"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9","race":"2014_Sen-G_ME","series":"senate","year":2014,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2014,"electionDate":"2014-11-04","raceKind":"G","location":"ME","democrat":"Shenna Bellows","republican":"Susan M. Collins","pollDem":34.65,"pollRep":60.7,"pollMargin":-26.05,"actualDem":30.835532,"actualRep":67.019073,"actualMargin":-36.183541,"actualDRShare":97.854605,"signedError":10.133541,"absoluteAverageMiss":10.133541,"individualPollMAE":10.133541,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2014-10-26","2014-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://github.com/MEDSL/constituency-returns/blob/fe67c056502fc09ddb1ace2ff8f87c53233a744e/1976-2018-senate.csv","outcomeSourceName":"MEDSL federal constituency counts, candidate fusion lines summed","archiveActualMargin":-36.960373,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.776832,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2014-10-26","pollMargin":-32.0,"signedError":4.183541,"selectedQuestionIds":["42171"],"selectedPollIds":["34322"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"180","pollster":"Maine People's Resource Center","date":"2014-11-01","pollMargin":-20.1,"signedError":16.083541,"selectedQuestionIds":["42130"],"selectedPollIds":["34383"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9060","race":"2022_House-G_CA-49","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CA-49","democrat":"Mike Levin","republican":"Brian Maryott","pollDem":49.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":6.0,"actualDem":52.630298,"actualRep":47.369702,"actualMargin":5.260596,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":0.739404,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.739404,"individualPollMAE":0.739404,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-29","2022-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.260596,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":0.739404,"selectedQuestionIds":["164669"],"selectedPollIds":["81441"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9073","race":"2022_House-G_CT-2","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-2","democrat":"Joe Courtney","republican":"Mike France","pollDem":51.0,"pollRep":29.0,"pollMargin":22.0,"actualDem":58.220334,"actualRep":40.173174,"actualMargin":18.04716,"actualDRShare":98.393508,"signedError":3.95284,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.95284,"individualPollMAE":3.95284,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":18.04716,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"90","pollster":"Fabrizio, Lee & Associates","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":22.0,"signedError":3.95284,"selectedQuestionIds":["164365"],"selectedPollIds":["81344"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9075","race":"2022_House-G_CT-4","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-4","democrat":"Jim Himes","republican":"Jayme Stevenson","pollDem":53.0,"pollRep":37.0,"pollMargin":16.0,"actualDem":59.411904,"actualRep":40.588096,"actualMargin":18.823808,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-2.823808,"absoluteAverageMiss":2.823808,"individualPollMAE":2.823808,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":19.879789,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-1.05598,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"90","pollster":"Fabrizio, Lee & Associates","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":16.0,"signedError":-2.823808,"selectedQuestionIds":["164367"],"selectedPollIds":["81344"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9076","race":"2022_House-G_CT-5","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CT-5","democrat":"Jahana Hayes","republican":"George Logan","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":50.394998,"actualRep":49.605002,"actualMargin":0.789997,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.789997,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.789997,"individualPollMAE":0.789997,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-10-25"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":0.187644,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.602353,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"90","pollster":"Fabrizio, Lee & Associates","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-0.789997,"selectedQuestionIds":["164368"],"selectedPollIds":["81344"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9090","race":"2022_House-G_FL-13","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"FL-13","democrat":"Eric Lynn","republican":"Anna Paulina Luna","pollDem":45.3,"pollRep":45.9,"pollMargin":-0.6,"actualDem":45.052789,"actualRep":53.136913,"actualMargin":-8.084123,"actualDRShare":98.189702,"signedError":7.484123,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.484123,"individualPollMAE":7.484123,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-26","2022-10-26"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-8.084123,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"314","pollster":"St. Pete Polls","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":-0.6,"signedError":7.484123,"selectedQuestionIds":["164376"],"selectedPollIds":["81352"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"91","race":"2016_Sen-G_CT","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Richard Blumenthal","republican":"Dan Carter","pollDem":63.0,"pollRep":34.0,"pollMargin":29.0,"actualDem":63.191704,"actualRep":34.619389,"actualMargin":28.572315,"actualDRShare":97.811093,"signedError":0.427685,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.427685,"individualPollMAE":0.427685,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2016-11-04","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":23.062741,"outcomeMarginCorrection":5.509574,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":29.0,"signedError":0.427685,"selectedQuestionIds":["76522"],"selectedPollIds":["48866"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9176","race":"2022_House-G_ME-1","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"ME-1","democrat":"Chellie M. Pingree","republican":"Edwin Thelander","pollDem":58.0,"pollRep":39.0,"pollMargin":19.0,"actualDem":62.934738,"actualRep":37.01944,"actualMargin":25.915298,"actualDRShare":99.954178,"signedError":-6.915298,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.915298,"individualPollMAE":6.915298,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-11-04","2022-11-04"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":25.915298,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":19.0,"signedError":-6.915298,"selectedQuestionIds":["165103"],"selectedPollIds":["81570"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9178","race":"2022_House-G_MD-1","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MD-1","democrat":"Heather R. Mizeur","republican":"Andy Harris","pollDem":38.8,"pollRep":45.1,"pollMargin":-6.3,"actualDem":43.125124,"actualRep":54.4294,"actualMargin":-11.304277,"actualDRShare":97.554524,"signedError":5.004277,"absoluteAverageMiss":5.004277,"individualPollMAE":5.004277,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-30","2022-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-11.304277,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"735","pollster":"Washington College","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":-6.3,"signedError":5.004277,"selectedQuestionIds":["165037"],"selectedPollIds":["81539"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"92","race":"2016_Sen-G_IA","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"IA","democrat":"Patty Judge","republican":"Chuck Grassley","pollDem":35.3,"pollRep":56.6,"pollMargin":-21.3,"actualDem":35.655235,"actualRep":60.089901,"actualMargin":-24.434666,"actualDRShare":95.745135,"signedError":3.134666,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.134666,"individualPollMAE":4.917333,"n":4,"pollsters":4,"sourceQuestions":5,"selectedQuestions":4,"dateRange":["2016-11-02","2016-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-24.434666,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-28.0,"signedError":-3.565334,"selectedQuestionIds":["75713"],"selectedPollIds":["48331"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"171","pollster":"Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":-16.2,"signedError":8.234666,"selectedQuestionIds":["75945"],"selectedPollIds":["48466"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-23.0,"signedError":1.434666,"selectedQuestionIds":["75958"],"selectedPollIds":["48470"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-18.0,"signedError":6.434666,"selectedQuestionIds":["76529"],"selectedPollIds":["48875"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9201","race":"2022_House-G_MI-7","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"MI-7","democrat":"Elissa Slotkin","republican":"Tom Barrett","pollDem":47.5,"pollRep":48.4,"pollMargin":-0.9,"actualDem":51.731919,"actualRep":46.316151,"actualMargin":5.415768,"actualDRShare":98.04807,"signedError":-6.315768,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.315768,"individualPollMAE":6.315768,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-11-02","2022-11-02"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.415768,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2022-11-02","pollMargin":-0.9,"signedError":-6.315768,"selectedQuestionIds":["164906"],"selectedPollIds":["81500"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9233","race":"2022_House-G_NV-1","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-1","democrat":"Dina Titus","republican":"Mark Robertson","pollDem":41.9,"pollRep":53.5,"pollMargin":-11.6,"actualDem":51.571436,"actualRep":45.961872,"actualMargin":5.609564,"actualDRShare":97.533307,"signedError":-17.209564,"absoluteAverageMiss":17.209564,"individualPollMAE":17.209564,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.609564,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-11.6,"signedError":-17.209564,"selectedQuestionIds":["164578"],"selectedPollIds":["81430"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9234","race":"2022_House-G_NV-2","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-2","democrat":"Elizabeth Mercedes Krause","republican":"Mark E. Amodei","pollDem":33.4,"pollRep":59.1,"pollMargin":-25.7,"actualDem":37.800888,"actualRep":59.732108,"actualMargin":-21.93122,"actualDRShare":97.532995,"signedError":-3.76878,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.76878,"individualPollMAE":3.76878,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-21.93122,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-25.7,"signedError":-3.76878,"selectedQuestionIds":["164579"],"selectedPollIds":["81430"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9235","race":"2022_House-G_NV-3","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-3","democrat":"Susie Lee","republican":"April Becker","pollDem":47.4,"pollRep":51.6,"pollMargin":-4.2,"actualDem":51.983392,"actualRep":48.016608,"actualMargin":3.966784,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-8.166784,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.166784,"individualPollMAE":8.166784,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":3.966784,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-4.2,"signedError":-8.166784,"selectedQuestionIds":["164580"],"selectedPollIds":["81430"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9236","race":"2022_House-G_NV-4","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NV-4","democrat":"Steven A. Horsford","republican":"Sam Peters","pollDem":50.8,"pollRep":47.5,"pollMargin":3.3,"actualDem":52.415197,"actualRep":47.584803,"actualMargin":4.830395,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-1.530395,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.530395,"individualPollMAE":1.530395,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":4.830395,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":3.3,"signedError":-1.530395,"selectedQuestionIds":["164581"],"selectedPollIds":["81430"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9237","race":"2022_House-G_NH-1","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-1","democrat":"Chris Pappas","republican":"Karoline Leavitt","pollDem":47.666667,"pollRep":48.0,"pollMargin":-0.333333,"actualDem":54.003717,"actualRep":45.885947,"actualMargin":8.117769,"actualDRShare":99.889664,"signedError":-8.451103,"absoluteAverageMiss":8.451103,"individualPollMAE":8.451103,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":8.117769,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"494","pollster":"Saint Anselm College Survey Center","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":-14.117769,"selectedQuestionIds":["164528"],"selectedPollIds":["81413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-7.117769,"selectedQuestionIds":["165101"],"selectedPollIds":["81569"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"514","pollster":"co/efficient","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":-4.117769,"selectedQuestionIds":["164325"],"selectedPollIds":["81324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9238","race":"2022_House-G_NH-2","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NH-2","democrat":"Ann McLane Kuster","republican":"Robert Burns","pollDem":48.666667,"pollRep":43.666667,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":55.801342,"actualRep":44.078691,"actualMargin":11.722651,"actualDRShare":99.880033,"signedError":-6.722651,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.722651,"individualPollMAE":6.722651,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2022-10-25","2022-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":11.722651,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"494","pollster":"Saint Anselm College Survey Center","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-3.722651,"selectedQuestionIds":["164529"],"selectedPollIds":["81413"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"357","pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","date":"2022-11-04","pollMargin":8.0,"signedError":-3.722651,"selectedQuestionIds":["165102"],"selectedPollIds":["81569"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"514","pollster":"co/efficient","date":"2022-10-25","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-12.722651,"selectedQuestionIds":["164326"],"selectedPollIds":["81324"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9251","race":"2022_House-G_NM-1","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-1","democrat":"Melanie Ann Stansbury","republican":"Michelle Garcia Holmes","pollDem":54.1,"pollRep":42.67,"pollMargin":11.43,"actualDem":55.745695,"actualRep":44.23364,"actualMargin":11.512055,"actualDRShare":99.979335,"signedError":-0.082055,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.082055,"individualPollMAE":0.082055,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-27","2022-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":11.512055,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":11.43,"signedError":-0.082055,"selectedQuestionIds":["164459"],"selectedPollIds":["81389"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9252","race":"2022_House-G_NM-2","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-2","democrat":"Gabriel Vasquez","republican":"Yvette Herrell","pollDem":43.54,"pollRep":54.12,"pollMargin":-10.58,"actualDem":50.3371,"actualRep":49.636431,"actualMargin":0.700669,"actualDRShare":99.97353,"signedError":-11.280669,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.280669,"individualPollMAE":11.280669,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-27","2022-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":0.700669,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":-10.58,"signedError":-11.280669,"selectedQuestionIds":["164457"],"selectedPollIds":["81389"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9253","race":"2022_House-G_NM-3","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NM-3","democrat":"Teresa Leger Fernandez","republican":"Alexis Martinez Johnson","pollDem":58.37,"pollRep":40.25,"pollMargin":18.12,"actualDem":58.157482,"actualRep":41.842518,"actualMargin":16.314964,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":1.805036,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.805036,"individualPollMAE":1.805036,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-27","2022-10-27"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":16.314964,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":18.12,"signedError":1.805036,"selectedQuestionIds":["164460"],"selectedPollIds":["81389"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9272","race":"2022_House-G_NY-19","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-19","democrat":"Josh Riley","republican":"Marcus Molinaro","pollDem":48.0,"pollRep":43.0,"pollMargin":5.0,"actualDem":49.200328,"actualRep":50.763165,"actualMargin":-1.562837,"actualDRShare":99.963493,"signedError":6.562837,"absoluteAverageMiss":6.562837,"individualPollMAE":6.562837,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-29","2022-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-1.93451,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.371674,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":6.562837,"selectedQuestionIds":["164947"],"selectedPollIds":["81514"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9275","race":"2022_House-G_NY-22","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"NY-22","democrat":"Francis Conole","republican":"Brandon M. Williams","pollDem":45.5,"pollRep":42.5,"pollMargin":3.0,"actualDem":49.482145,"actualRep":50.461639,"actualMargin":-0.979494,"actualDRShare":99.943784,"signedError":3.979494,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.979494,"individualPollMAE":3.979494,"n":2,"pollsters":2,"sourceQuestions":2,"selectedQuestions":2,"dateRange":["2022-10-26","2022-10-29"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":6.099595,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-7.079089,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"118","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","date":"2022-10-26","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":2.979494,"selectedQuestionIds":["164356"],"selectedPollIds":["81339"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"305","pollster":"Siena College","date":"2022-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":4.979494,"selectedQuestionIds":["164946"],"selectedPollIds":["81514"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"93","race":"2016_Sen-G_FL","series":"senate","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"FL","democrat":"Patrick Murphy","republican":"Marco Rubio","pollDem":44.461538,"pollRep":49.015385,"pollMargin":-4.553846,"actualDem":44.314855,"actualRep":51.981128,"actualMargin":-7.666274,"actualDRShare":96.295983,"signedError":3.112428,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.112428,"individualPollMAE":4.343378,"n":13,"pollsters":13,"sourceQuestions":18,"selectedQuestions":13,"dateRange":["2016-10-25","2016-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/1890/federalelections2016.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-7.666274,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"37","pollster":"Big Village","date":"2016-10-29","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":6.666274,"selectedQuestionIds":["75249"],"selectedPollIds":["48088"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"81","pollster":"Dixie Strategies","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-5.6,"signedError":2.066274,"selectedQuestionIds":["74530"],"selectedPollIds":["47621"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":-2.0,"signedError":5.666274,"selectedQuestionIds":["74744"],"selectedPollIds":["47756"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":6.666274,"selectedQuestionIds":["76361"],"selectedPollIds":["48776"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2016-11-01","pollMargin":-3.6,"signedError":4.066274,"selectedQuestionIds":["75463"],"selectedPollIds":["48188"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":-8.0,"signedError":-0.333726,"selectedQuestionIds":["74780"],"selectedPollIds":["47776"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"263","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","date":"2016-10-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":7.666274,"selectedQuestionIds":["74566"],"selectedPollIds":["47637"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":-7.0,"signedError":0.666274,"selectedQuestionIds":["76064"],"selectedPollIds":["48522"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-14.0,"signedError":-6.333726,"selectedQuestionIds":["76248"],"selectedPollIds":["48676"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":8.666274,"selectedQuestionIds":["76523"],"selectedPollIds":["48869"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"332","pollster":"TargetSmart","date":"2016-10-27","pollMargin":-6.0,"signedError":1.666274,"selectedQuestionIds":["75146"],"selectedPollIds":["48018"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"448","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena College","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":-9.0,"signedError":-1.333726,"selectedQuestionIds":["74777"],"selectedPollIds":["47771"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":-3.0,"signedError":4.666274,"selectedQuestionIds":["75980"],"selectedPollIds":["48482"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9307","race":"2022_House-G_OH-13","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OH-13","democrat":"Emilia Sykes","republican":"Madison Gesiotto Gilbert","pollDem":46.0,"pollRep":44.0,"pollMargin":2.0,"actualDem":52.676251,"actualRep":47.323749,"actualMargin":5.352503,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-3.352503,"absoluteAverageMiss":3.352503,"individualPollMAE":3.352503,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-11-01","2022-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":5.352503,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"274","pollster":"RRH Elections","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-3.352503,"selectedQuestionIds":["165066"],"selectedPollIds":["81556"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9319","race":"2022_House-G_OR-4","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"OR-4","democrat":"Val Hoyle","republican":"Alek Skarlatos","pollDem":45.0,"pollRep":45.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":50.540733,"actualRep":43.074287,"actualMargin":7.466446,"actualDRShare":93.61502,"signedError":-7.466446,"absoluteAverageMiss":7.466446,"individualPollMAE":7.466446,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-11-01","2022-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":7.466446,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"274","pollster":"RRH Elections","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-7.466446,"selectedQuestionIds":["165065"],"selectedPollIds":["81555"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9332","race":"2022_House-G_PA-12","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"PA-12","democrat":"Summer Lee","republican":"Mike Doyle","pollDem":54.0,"pollRep":40.0,"pollMargin":14.0,"actualDem":55.966567,"actualRep":43.623701,"actualMargin":12.342865,"actualDRShare":99.590268,"signedError":1.657135,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.657135,"individualPollMAE":1.657135,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-30","2022-10-30"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":12.393646,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.050781,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"68","pollster":"DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department","date":"2022-10-30","pollMargin":14.0,"signedError":1.657135,"selectedQuestionIds":["164568"],"selectedPollIds":["81424"],"partisanFlags":["DEM"]}]},{"raceId":"94","race":"2016_Pres-G_US","series":"presidential-national","year":2016,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2016,"electionDate":"2016-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"US","democrat":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","republican":"Donald Trump","pollDem":45.682727,"pollRep":42.303182,"pollMargin":3.379545,"actualDem":48.184578,"actualRep":46.08558,"actualMargin":2.098998,"actualDRShare":94.270158,"signedError":1.280547,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.280547,"individualPollMAE":2.201092,"n":22,"pollsters":22,"sourceQuestions":46,"selectedQuestions":22,"dateRange":["2016-10-26","2016-11-06"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf","outcomeSourceName":"FEC official national presidential counts","archiveActualMargin":2.181319,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.082321,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"3","pollster":"ABC News/The Washington Post","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76192"],"selectedPollIds":["48630"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"13","pollster":"Angus Reid Global","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76181"],"selectedPollIds":["48626"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76163"],"selectedPollIds":["48619"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"810","pollster":"CBS News","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76058"],"selectedPollIds":["48521"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"36","pollster":"CBS News/The New York Times","date":"2016-10-30","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["75450"],"selectedPollIds":["48180"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"40","pollster":"CVOTER","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":2.78,"signedError":0.681002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76159"],"selectedPollIds":["48615"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76444"],"selectedPollIds":["48848"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"221","pollster":"Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["75974"],"selectedPollIds":["48480"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"154","pollster":"Ipsos","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76636"],"selectedPollIds":["48922"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"572","pollster":"Leger","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76601"],"selectedPollIds":["48911"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"175","pollster":"Lucid","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76354"],"selectedPollIds":["48771"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2016-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.098998,"selectedQuestionIds":["75818"],"selectedPollIds":["48362"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"215","pollster":"Monmouth University Polling Institute","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76176"],"selectedPollIds":["48623"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"218","pollster":"Morning Consult","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["75968"],"selectedPollIds":["48477"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"270","pollster":"RAND (American Life Panel)","date":"2016-10-26","pollMargin":9.1,"signedError":7.001002,"selectedQuestionIds":["75084"],"selectedPollIds":["48009"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"272","pollster":"RKM Research and Communications Inc.","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":3.2,"signedError":1.101002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76029"],"selectedPollIds":["48509"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"277","pollster":"Rasmussen Reports","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.098998,"selectedQuestionIds":["76157"],"selectedPollIds":["48613"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"304","pollster":"Selzer & Co.","date":"2016-11-05","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76036"],"selectedPollIds":["48513"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"324","pollster":"SurveyMonkey","date":"2016-11-03","pollMargin":6.0,"signedError":3.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76043"],"selectedPollIds":["48515"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"144","pollster":"TIPP Insights","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":-1.5,"signedError":-3.598998,"selectedQuestionIds":["76611"],"selectedPollIds":["48916"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"343","pollster":"University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research","date":"2016-11-04","pollMargin":-3.23,"signedError":-5.328998,"selectedQuestionIds":["76612"],"selectedPollIds":["48917"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2016-11-06","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.901002,"selectedQuestionIds":["76262"],"selectedPollIds":["48687"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9405","race":"2022_House-G_VA-7","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"VA-7","democrat":"Abigail A. Spanberger","republican":"Yesli I. Vega","pollDem":47.0,"pollRep":47.0,"pollMargin":0.0,"actualDem":52.209556,"actualRep":47.558453,"actualMargin":4.651104,"actualDRShare":99.768009,"signedError":-4.651104,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.651104,"individualPollMAE":4.651104,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-11-01","2022-11-01"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":4.650934,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.000169,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"274","pollster":"RRH Elections","date":"2022-11-01","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-4.651104,"selectedQuestionIds":["165064"],"selectedPollIds":["81554"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9431","race":"2022_House-G_WY-1","series":"house-district","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"G","location":"WY-1","democrat":"Lynnette GreyBull","republican":"Harriet Hageman","pollDem":22.7,"pollRep":62.1,"pollMargin":-39.4,"actualDem":24.36798,"actualRep":68.181865,"actualMargin":-43.813885,"actualDRShare":92.549845,"signedError":4.413885,"absoluteAverageMiss":4.413885,"individualPollMAE":4.413885,"n":1,"pollsters":1,"sourceQuestions":1,"selectedQuestions":1,"dateRange":["2022-10-28","2022-10-28"],"rankingEligible":false,"rankingExclusions":["fewer-than-three-firms"],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-43.813885,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"667","pollster":"University of Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center","date":"2022-10-28","pollMargin":-39.4,"signedError":4.413885,"selectedQuestionIds":["165055"],"selectedPollIds":["81549"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9482","race":"2022_Sen-GS_OK","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-11-08","raceKind":"GS","location":"OK","democrat":"Kendra Horn","republican":"Markwayne Mullin","pollDem":39.433333,"pollRep":54.633333,"pollMargin":-15.2,"actualDem":35.236479,"actualRep":61.769208,"actualMargin":-26.532728,"actualDRShare":97.005687,"signedError":11.332728,"absoluteAverageMiss":11.332728,"individualPollMAE":11.332728,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":4,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2022-10-27","2022-11-05"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":-26.532728,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"556","pollster":"Amber Integrated","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":-11.0,"signedError":15.532728,"selectedQuestionIds":["164820"],"selectedPollIds":["81467"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"726","pollster":"Ascend Action","date":"2022-11-05","pollMargin":-12.0,"signedError":14.532728,"selectedQuestionIds":["165203"],"selectedPollIds":["81601"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-10-27","pollMargin":-22.6,"signedError":3.932728,"selectedQuestionIds":["164436"],"selectedPollIds":["81375"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"9552","race":"2022_Sen-R_GA","series":"senate","year":2022,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2022,"electionDate":"2022-12-06","raceKind":"R","location":"GA","democrat":"Raphael Warnock","republican":"Herschel Junior Walker","pollDem":50.383333,"pollRep":47.65,"pollMargin":2.733333,"actualDem":51.403055,"actualRep":48.596945,"actualMargin":2.806111,"actualDRShare":100.0,"signedError":-0.072778,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.072778,"individualPollMAE":1.633333,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":12,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2022-11-23","2022-12-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/5676/federalelections2022.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":2.806111,"outcomeMarginCorrection":-0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"522","pollster":"Data for Progress","date":"2022-12-03","pollMargin":2.0,"signedError":-0.806111,"selectedQuestionIds":["165968"],"selectedPollIds":["81760"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2022-11-29","pollMargin":1.6,"signedError":-1.206111,"selectedQuestionIds":["165846"],"selectedPollIds":["81734"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"108","pollster":"Frederick Polls","date":"2022-11-25","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.806111,"selectedQuestionIds":["165781"],"selectedPollIds":["81719"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"243","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","date":"2022-12-04","pollMargin":2.1,"signedError":-0.706111,"selectedQuestionIds":["165967"],"selectedPollIds":["81759"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"166","pollster":"Landmark Communications","date":"2022-12-04","pollMargin":5.5,"signedError":2.693889,"selectedQuestionIds":["165974"],"selectedPollIds":["81764"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"213","pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications","date":"2022-12-04","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.193889,"selectedQuestionIds":["165971"],"selectedPollIds":["81761"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"732","pollster":"Patriot Polling","date":"2022-12-01","pollMargin":1.7,"signedError":-1.106111,"selectedQuestionIds":["165943"],"selectedPollIds":["81754"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"699","pollster":"Phillips Academy","date":"2022-11-26","pollMargin":-0.8,"signedError":-3.606111,"selectedQuestionIds":["165779"],"selectedPollIds":["81717"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2022-11-27","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.193889,"selectedQuestionIds":["165920"],"selectedPollIds":["81741"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"325","pollster":"SurveyUSA","date":"2022-11-28","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.193889,"selectedQuestionIds":["165918"],"selectedPollIds":["81740"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2022-12-04","pollMargin":3.7,"signedError":0.893889,"selectedQuestionIds":["165972"],"selectedPollIds":["81762"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"355","pollster":"University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion","date":"2022-11-23","pollMargin":5.0,"signedError":2.193889,"selectedQuestionIds":["165956"],"selectedPollIds":["81756"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"96","race":"2018_Sen-G_AZ","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"AZ","democrat":"Kyrsten Sinema","republican":"Martha McSally","pollDem":47.475,"pollRep":46.225,"pollMargin":1.25,"actualDem":49.955794,"actualRep":47.611299,"actualMargin":2.344496,"actualDRShare":97.567093,"signedError":-1.094496,"absoluteAverageMiss":1.094496,"individualPollMAE":2.240749,"n":12,"pollsters":12,"sourceQuestions":15,"selectedQuestions":12,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-11-04"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":2.344496,"outcomeMarginCorrection":0.0,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"103","pollster":"Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":0.0,"signedError":-2.344496,"selectedQuestionIds":["91157"],"selectedPollIds":["56615"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":0.7,"signedError":-1.644496,"selectedQuestionIds":["91492"],"selectedPollIds":["56779"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-3.344496,"selectedQuestionIds":["91551"],"selectedPollIds":["56810"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"133","pollster":"Harris Insights & Analytics","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":4.6,"signedError":2.255504,"selectedQuestionIds":["91590"],"selectedPollIds":["56829"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"416","pollster":"HighGround Inc.","date":"2018-10-27","pollMargin":-1.2,"signedError":-3.544496,"selectedQuestionIds":["90927"],"selectedPollIds":["56522"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"183","pollster":"Marist College","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.655504,"selectedQuestionIds":["90965"],"selectedPollIds":["56539"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"235","pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":-1.0,"signedError":-3.344496,"selectedQuestionIds":["91458"],"selectedPollIds":["56765"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"449","pollster":"Research Co.","date":"2018-11-02","pollMargin":1.0,"signedError":-1.344496,"selectedQuestionIds":["91545"],"selectedPollIds":["56801"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"297","pollster":"SSRS","date":"2018-10-26","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.655504,"selectedQuestionIds":["91126"],"selectedPollIds":["56600"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"338","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","date":"2018-11-04","pollMargin":-2.1,"signedError":-4.444496,"selectedQuestionIds":["91585"],"selectedPollIds":["56827"],"partisanFlags":["REP"]},{"pollsterId":"372","pollster":"Vox Populi Polling","date":"2018-10-29","pollMargin":4.0,"signedError":1.655504,"selectedQuestionIds":["91276"],"selectedPollIds":["56673"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"391","pollster":"YouGov","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":3.0,"signedError":0.655504,"selectedQuestionIds":["90884"],"selectedPollIds":["56497"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]},{"raceId":"98","race":"2018_Sen-G_CT","series":"senate","year":2018,"yearParity":"even","calendarElectionYear":2018,"electionDate":"2018-11-06","raceKind":"G","location":"CT","democrat":"Christopher Murphy","republican":"Matthew Corey","pollDem":56.366667,"pollRep":37.033333,"pollMargin":19.333333,"actualDem":59.529506,"actualRep":39.349673,"actualMargin":20.179833,"actualDRShare":98.879179,"signedError":-0.8465,"absoluteAverageMiss":0.8465,"individualPollMAE":2.726611,"n":3,"pollsters":3,"sourceQuestions":3,"selectedQuestions":3,"dateRange":["2018-10-25","2018-10-31"],"rankingEligible":true,"rankingExclusions":[],"outcomeStatus":"independent-count-matched","outcomeSourceUrl":"https://www.fec.gov/documents/2706/federalelections2018.xlsx","outcomeSourceName":"FEC workbook candidate counts; fusion lines consolidated by existing Election.org extract","archiveActualMargin":17.447434,"outcomeMarginCorrection":2.732399,"firms":[{"pollsterId":"88","pollster":"Emerson College","date":"2018-10-28","pollMargin":20.0,"signedError":-0.179833,"selectedQuestionIds":["91110"],"selectedPollIds":["56596"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"124","pollster":"Gravis Marketing","date":"2018-10-31","pollMargin":23.0,"signedError":2.820167,"selectedQuestionIds":["91259"],"selectedPollIds":["56662"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]},{"pollsterId":"267","pollster":"Quinnipiac University","date":"2018-10-25","pollMargin":15.0,"signedError":-5.179833,"selectedQuestionIds":["90962"],"selectedPollIds":["56538"],"partisanFlags":["NA"]}]}]}